foreign notes

Presidential website becoming a rag

2008-07-25T01:53:00.006+03:00

Head of President Yushchenko's secretariat, Viktor Baloha, continues his risible criticism of PM Yuliya Tymoshenko in a recent posting on the President's official website.

He accuses the PM of working actively with PoR head, Viktor Yanukovych: "for the purpose of gaining advantages in the future presidential elections." In his opinion, Tymoshenko and Yanukovych: "frequently operate in a tactical tandem, despite their declared irreconcilable differences".

Baloha claims that: "It is quite likely that there will be joint voting [in the VR] by the ByuT and 'Regiony' fractions for a new Constitution."

"This strange union between the ruling coalition and the opposition has a wholly prosaic explanation: the dream of both Y. Tymoshenko and V Yanukovych for the presidential post. Both political forces cheer themselves in the hope that together they may achieve the acceptance of beneficial decisions for themselves. These calculations are also made in order to gain some kind of advantages in relationships with the current head of state. However, such a construct is illusory...It is not worth expecting that [these kind] of anomalous tandems can sway President Yushchenko's positions or obstruct him to embody his declared path for the country's development, economic reform and social changes which can provide an improved [living] standard for people," said Baloha.

Baloha [concerning her recent visits to Poland, and particularly Russia] continues : "She made generous promises...of co-operation in [areas of] sensitive interest with the two neighbouring states, particularly in economics. The aims of such assurances is the search for support in future elections in exchange for substantial dividends after victory."

"It is clear that Y. Tymoshenko right now is trying to run the country as [if it were] her own dacha. On her foreign visits, without batting an eyelid, she promises her foreign interlocutors that what they are interested in. The prime minister is not greatly concerned that these promises should coincide with the interests of Ukraine. After all, personal plans and ambitions are above all!"

As further evidence of Tymoshenko's presidential ambitions Baloha cites incessant attempts by her to place under her personal control international economic projects, started without participation of the KabMin. This, he claims, is necessary in order to change their participants and introduce 'friendly' companies, giving them prefence in exchange for their political and financial support. The benefits from such exchange are intended to fund the BYuT leader's presidential campaign.

LEvko says the President and PoR have been sniffing one another's **** for many months in the hope of forming the fabled broad coalition. But when BYuT and Regiony, the two biggest political forces in the country, speak to one another, this is considered an 'abnormal tandem'.

There is no evidence provided on the Presidential site to support the serious allegations mentioned above. Well over a thousand of Ukraine's brightest work at the President's Secretariat - they should be able to produce more than this kind of political agitprop. Baloha's desperate comments are not worthy of a nation's Presidential website.

Difficulties for any political 'third force'

2008-07-21T02:32:00.003+03:00

Some portions from an article in the latest 'Kommentarii' weekly, giving reasons why any 'third force' is unlikely to emerge in Ukrainian politics any time soon, even though the current polarized 'orange'-'white and blue' political set-up that sprung forth after the Orange Revolution has not produced much benefit to the country:

"One of the central problems for the forces who have pretentions to be a 'third alternative' is the absence in their structures of charismatic leaders. No matter how interesting their party program is, Ukrainian voters invariably make their choice according to personalities. Competent election campaigns with promotion of party leaders have proven to be decisive. Because Ukraine has been living in what can be described as a permanent election campaign race in recent times, new forces never have the opportunity to shine, and if they do, the main political heavyweights 'buy them up', and the existing organizational structures of any third force are merged or absorbed by the major players.

The second problem for 'third forces' is even more difficult — they do not propose practically any alternative ideological messages. At best they manage to develop creative ideas already instigated by the leading political players, and at worst they merely plagiarize them. The thesis, 'they are all bad, and only we care about the interests of the people', seldom finds an adequate response in the hearts of electorate, more likely, it creates even more scepticism. And Ukrainian votes tend to vote only for parties that have solid prospects for entering parliament.

Finally, the the third problem for 'third forces' is the bi-polarity of the Ukrainian politicum, looking either towards the West, or to Moscow, where there is simply no place for any alternative third view. The maximum that can be be hoped for by those entering the big game and who want to 'graze' on either Pro-Russian, or westernized electoral fields, is to steal votes from the true keepers of these two vectors. Moreover, while the definitive geopolitical choice for Ukraine is undecided, political struggles cannot turn to everyday matters, and the creation of an effective project geared to the needs of a certain social group, is simply unreal.

There are many examples in the country's contemporary history where movements based on agricultural workers, youth, feminists, and even ecological movements were only ever marginal. Besides, there have been separate sections for quite a while already for all these target audiences in the programs of the 'first' and 'second forces."

Also from 'Kommentarii', this:

Economic problems of Russia's Fifth column' in Ukraine.

In the light of a new wave of political, economic and informational pressure from Russia on Ukraine it is becoming clear that the Kremlin has no-one in Ukraine to promote its anti-Ukrainian messages. In earlier times Party of Regions would loyally repeat them, but now support for the Russian initiatives in the 'blue and white' camp can be heard only from isolated, withered voices.

Recent statements from Moscow have put 'Regionaly' in a rather uncomfortable position. This is revealed by the opinions of PoR leader Viktor Yanukovych who stated that the Russian State Duma statement on the possibility of revision of wide-ranging Russian-Ukrainian agreements were an unpleasant surprise. The declaration of the vice-premier of the Russian Federation Sergey Ivanov, that Russia will be compelled to respond to Ukraine's entry into NATO with the introduction of a visa regime for Ukrainians, was self-consciously called by Viktor Fedorovych, as "just a proposal".

It is clear that PoR has declined to make any firm statements, indicating an unstable internal situation exists inside 'Reginaly'. It's no secret that PoR's Ahmetov-Kolesnikov wing co-ordinates its activities in many matters with the Presidential Secretariat, which has its own views on the 'Russian vector'. Therefore it is not convenient for Regionaly right now to echo Moscow's opinions and enter into conflict with Viktor Yushchenko. In this context it is necessary to note that this conditionally"pro-presidential" wing of PoR controls a number of radically Pro-Russian organisations in Donbas, e.g the recently forbidden civic organisation 'Donetskaya Respublika', 'Svyatogora', and 'Union born by Revolution'. The Donetsk City Council Secretary Nikolai Levchenko who carefully cultivates an image of an ardent fighter with Ukrainian nationalism, is considered a protege of Boris Kolesnikov.

In Crimea there is a similar situation; 'Regionaly', having secured themselves at local authority level, do not see any economic reason for close co-operation with the Kremlin. If in earlier times financial assistance from Moscow was an attractive bonus for maintaining 'correct ideology', now there is less economic sense for the leaders of the Autonomous Republic to go into conflict with Kyiv. In order for the Kremlin to advance its policies in Ukraine it is compelled to work with political outcasts - The Progressive Socialists of Natalia Vitrenko, the Party Russian-Ukrainian Union, the Crimean Communist Leonid Grach and others. However these forces are only capable of making a lot of noise and creating an informational background, but cannot really help Russia in any way to lobby its interests in Ukraine.

Out for summer

2008-07-12T01:22:00.004+03:00

So the dust covers have been placed over the chairs in Ukraine's parliament for the summer recess. Sittings will resume on 2nd of September. Yulia Tymoshenko's cabinet easily survived a no confidence vote today because Communist party and Lytvyn bloc deputies reneged on their promises to support an attempt by 'Regionaly' to bring down her government.

BYuT deputies had been alerted earlier in the week to the possibility of such a vote being proposed by a rare sighting of PoR deputy Rinat Akhmetov in the vicinity of the VR. Many of his party colleagues had already departed for their summer holidays to tropical islands but had been rounded up, in some cases by charter aircraft, for the vote. They were not best pleased.

But politiking will go on. The 'Yedynyi Tsentr' project is being wheeled out at a big meeting tomorrow - will it fizzle out on the launch pad?

PoR propose amending Constitution

2008-07-02T01:34:00.003+03:00

Today Party of Regions presented their proposed parliamentary bill to amend certain articles in the Constitution of Ukraine.

The main points:

Non aligned status for Ukraine
A single 'vertical' executive power structure
Judicial reform
Russian as a second state language

A 'Regiony' spokesman, Oleksandr Lavrynovych, claimed that it was "quite realistic and possible" 300 deputies' signatures could be collected in support of the bill. This could occur even by next week.

Other observers described as "minimal" the chances of PoR's constitutional project containing the points above being passed through parliament.

PoR currently have 175 deputies in the VR. Maybe they should go back and redo their homework.

Tymoshenko fights on?

2008-06-29T12:50:00.006+03:00

A loose translation of an article in the current 'Kommentarii':

Yushchenko scared off by Tymoshenko's [possible] resignation

The president decided against personally calling [VR speaker] Arseniy Yatsenyuk to announce the fall of the ruling coalition

The two-pronged attacks on the Yulia Tymoshenko government by the President's Secretariat and Party of Regions has ceased despite the the fact that her demise - her resignation as prime minister - was seconds away. It seemed nothing could prevent Tymoshenko's opponents finishing her off.

The leader of BYuT was to be removed from power according to the following scenario: the announcement of the dissolution of the democratic coalition; the reading of the KabMin's economic progress report in parliament [see previous blogs]; a vote of no confidence in the government; and the formation of a new semi-legitimate 'broad' coalition and new 'broad' KabMin. Bank Street [Pres's Secretariat] had planned all this according to tight schedule: even the date for Tymoshenko's 'execution' - June 24th - had been 'pencilled in' by 'Regionaly' when the reading of the KabMin report at an extraordinary parliamentary session of parliament was to take place. But the extraordinary VR session proposal was still-born as it became clear that at each stage of the plan, [named by ill-wishers as the Baloha/Kolesnikov plan], there were unsurmountable obstacles.

Yatsenyuk acts dumb

Problems for the initiators of reformatting of the parliamentary majority begun at the first stage, i.e. the official announcement of "death" of the ruling BYuT/NUNS coalition following the exit of deputies Ihor Rybakov and Yuriy But. The speaker of the Supreme Rada Arseniy Yatseniuk showed unexpected obstinacy. The ignoring of demands and threats from the Party of Regions fraction by the VR speaker was quite predictable, but a similar reaction from Yatsenyuk to desperate requests from the President's Secretariat to 'bury' the democratic coalition was an unpleasant surprise for Bank Street. A 'Kommentarii' source claimed that Arseniy Petrovich Yatsenyuk had a long telephone conversation with the head of this joint venture, Viktor Baloha, about this. Baloha demanded the speaker make an official statement in parliament declaring the absence in the VR of a majority during an extraordinary session planned for June 24th. Such a statement would have cleared a direct route to resignation of PM Yulia Tymoshenko, and would at least downgrade the government and its head to "acting" status only. The source asserts that the conversation between Yatseniuk and Baloha was heated, but without success for the head of the presidential office. It seems the speaker Yatsenyuk had explained to the head of the joint venture that he would terminate the democratic coalition only if he was personally asked to do so by the President. Yatsenyuk's calculations were correct - the president did not have the guts to make this request and as a result all the clever schemes to get rid of Tymoshenko collapsed like a house of cards.

Its no secret that any reformatting of the parliamentary majority would harm Yatsenkyuk's political interests and the chances of him hanging onto the speaker's chair would diminish. He has begun to enjoy his leading role parliament, and for him it had become important to find ways to rescue the democratic coalition, thereby raising his own rating. Yatseniuk had spent a fruitful round of personal negotiations with Tymoshenko, and right away the parties agreed mutual neutrality and non agression postures. So, in exchange for his adherence to principles of preservation of the coalition the premier promised Yatsenyuk support in the mass-media controlled by BYuT. After Bank Street became aware of the mutual understanding reached between the prime minister and the speaker, Baloha broadcast a statement on behalf of Yushchenko that the head of parliament is a key figure in action to renew the democratic coalition, and has tried to place all responsibility for the majority's future prospects on speaker's shoulders.

Publically, the formation of this 'situational' union between Tymoshenko and Yatseniuk was marked by a meeting of the prime minister, the speaker, and leaders of fractions of the coalition covered by television cameras when Yulia T. entirely supported Arseniy Petrovich's initiative to urgently pass a law about internal and foreign policy of the country until 2010. (In truth, the prime minister is suggesting consideration be given to this bill in a package together with a statement on the program of activity of the government which would give Tymoshenko a year's immunity from dismissal). She also informed of the KabMin's intention in the near future to submit the long-awaited project of changes to the state budget. At the same meeting both Tymoshenko on behalf of BYuT, and Vyacheslav Kirilenko from NUNS mutually declared pre-term parliamentary elections of which the opposition and also President's Secretary frequently speak, to be unnecessary.

'Regionaly' fail to do homework set by President

'Kommentarii' sources in Bank Street assert that Yushchenko has already approved the formation of a new parliamentary majority, requesting Party of Regions do the 'spadework', the President's position being: "I am ready to support you if you collect the necessary 226 VR votes".

'Regionaly' quickly got down to business garnering 150 VR deputies' votes demanding examination of the question of responsibility of the KabMin, but then encountered problems organizing an extraordinary session of parliament. The Communist Party declared they were against any extraordinary sitting of parliament. Party head Petro Symonenko even called a special press conference to explain there was no sense in it. Their position is clear - they realize they will not be asked to participate in any majority coalition of whatever variety, primarily because of a Yushchenko's hostile attitude to the Communist Party. At this moment the Communist Party is more inclined to co-operation with Tymoshenko, situationally supporting some of BYuT's initiatives, so to change the current political set-up would serve no purpose for them.

Bank Street and PoR placed much hope in co-operation with Lytyvyn's Bloc too. According to observers, Volymyr Lytyvyn really did engage with them on the creation of a broad coalition, but simultaneously continued a dialogue with the democratic coalition about the possibility of joining the still-existing de jure majority. Lytvyn's aim, by operating on two fronts, was to secure the VR speaker's chair for himself. However, Yushenko is against giving Lytyvn this important position because he is afraid that under a Lytvyn speakership he would definitively lose control over parliament. At least the current VR speaker, Yatseniuk, does not have his own political project, or ideas of political independence, so dialogue between Bank Street and Yatsenyuk are much simpler.

So, at the moment its is unlikely that the necessary number of votes in favour of a non confidence vote in the KabMin could be assembled. The situation is aggravated by that fact that those in favour of reformatting of parliamentary majority are split on the nomination of any future prime minister.

There are several pretender to replace Tymoshenko from the Bank Street/Akhmetov combination - Bohatyryova, Baloha, Yatseniuk and others, but not one of them is a candidate of general concensus. The are different views on who should head the government even in the Party of Regions where Viktor Yanukovych's ambitions are well-known. The internal party group focused on the current PoR leader were the most enthusiastic in proposing the resignation of the KabMin and were most heavily engaged in conducted a mass p.r. attack against the goverment. Authors of the no-confidence vote project included Alexander Efremov, Elena Lukash and Alexander Lavrinovich -all of them from Yanukovych's circle, rather than that of Akhmetov. And nobody is seriously mentioning one important nuance: according to the new version on the law on the KabMin Viktor Yanukovych actually has no right to hold a post in the government because of previous criminal convictions. Unlike previous versions, the new version does not include a clause stating that a citizen can be a member of Cabinet, if any previous convictions have been legally quashed. Therefore any second premiership for Yanukovych could be met with the most serious legal problems.

p.s. Tonight Spain beat Germany 1-0 in the final of the Euro 2008 soccer competition and have been crowned soccer champions of Europe. The next European championship is planned to be hosted jointly by Ukraine and Poland in 2012, but a final decision is to be made in the Autumn.

The whole of Spain are united by the joy of victory, but there is a lesson to be learned by Ukraine here. Seventy years ago Spain was in the grip of a bitter civil war. Regional and linguistic differences are deeply felt even today, but the country has prospered partly as a result of putting aside old scores.

In soccer too their national team has perennially underachieved, in no small part because of the disharmony between players from different regions. It seems these problems have been overcome too, and as a result their team has produced success on the field of play. Well done Spain.

p.p.s. LEvko is sorry for not posting more recently - have been engaged in other matters..Will try and do more in the days and weeks to come..

Tymoshenko's day of judgement imminent?

2008-06-21T02:26:00.003+03:00

Some speculation from 'Segodnya':

Tymoshenko's 'day of judgement' delayed for two weeks - Lytvynites are now ready to support motion to dismiss the government, Communists would help, but Yushchenko's position is not clear.

Parliament took a time-out on Friday for a couple of weeks - its next session is designated to take place on July 7th. By that time the opposition hopes to be thoroughly prepared for the main battle - to overthrow Tymoshenko's government.

The 'Regionaly' have already registered a resolution, for which they collected 154 deputies' signatures on Friday afternoon, demanding a [progress] report from the government. "Now, according to the law, committees should prepare questions for the government in the next 7 days, and during the next 10 days the government must report back," explained Serhiy Lyovochkin, one of PoR's leaders. According to him, once the report is produced (which could be as early as July 7th, when the next pleniary session of parliament takes place) his colleagues intend to dismiss Tymoshenko's KabMin for "incompetence, non professionalism and destruction of the Ukrainian economy".

Earlier today 'Segodnya' reported that deputies from the Lytvyn bloc as well as those from [Baloha's] "United Centre" and also, possibly, the Communists, could support them.
On Friday a congress of the People's Party (led by Volodymyr Lytvyn) decided it would be impossible for Lytyvyn's bloc to join existing coalitions. It would only be possible for them to participate in the formation of new coalitions. The hopes of BYuT to persuade the Lytvynites to joined them in a "democratic coalition" has come to nought, and the participation Lytyvn's bloc in any possible new coalition is now open.

BYuT, however, are sure that no resignation of government will take place, at least during the summer. An encouraging rumor is spreading among the bloc's deputies, that the President will not give his people 'the nod' to support a no-confidence vote against government.

"The President has simply realized, that after the resignation of Yulka T. and the formation of a broad coalition between PoR and NUNS, they will have to submit the candidature of Yanukovych for the post of premier. But on the threshold of presidential elections this would not be desirable. Therefore Yushchenko has decided to stall the process of the resignation of government and of the disintegration of the ruling coalition," assured a high ranking BYuT official. The day before, sources in the President's secretariat indicated to 'Segodnya' that at least the Baloha wing of NUNS would vote for the dismissal of the government.

But if 'Regionaly' can secure the support of the Communists and Lytvynites, then it will be possible for them to succeed without the approval of the Pres's secretariat. All that would be required would be to find 2 or 3 people in NUNS or in BYuT, ready to vote for Tymoshenko's resignation.

According to information received by 'Segodnya', PoR's relations with VR speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk, have become difficult because he does not want to make any declaration on the end of the ruling coalition. "Therefore our leadership has 2 points of view about what to do with Arseniy - some propose to remove his in the near future, while others, on the contrary, want to give a signal, that in the case of reformation of the coalition he would remain speaker," reported a source in PoR.

LEvko considers that Lytyvn, as a unifying, 'technical', non aligned politician, could do rather well in any Autumn elections. Voters are becoming disillusioned with the current main players.

p.s. apologies for not posting much recently - have been busy on other matters.

Looking into the crystal ball

2008-06-15T20:09:00.002+03:00

Some speculation from a recent 'Segodnya' article:

Opposition reflecting over dismissing Tymoshenko

'Regionaly' are convincing NUNS and BYuT deputies to vote against Tymoshenko

The disintegration of the ruling coalition caused by last week's departure of 2 deputies, reducing it to a maximum of 225 deputies in a 450 seat house, has given rise to speculation on how parliament will now function and what the future holds for the current KabMin.

Party of Regions deputy Mykola Azarov recently claimed in a TV interview that there is now a sufficient number of deputies willing to support a non-confidence vote against the current KabMin, forcing it into resignation.

The ruling coalition has already called this statement a bluff, but 'Segodnya's' sources claim that Party of Regions is now preparing a two-pronged attack on the government.

Firstly they will be turning to the Constitutional Court to make a ruling on the legitimacy of the ruling coalition, which can now muster less than half of deputies in parliament.

Secondly they are conducting consultations with those NUNS and BYuT deputies who are dissatisfied with Tymoshenko's premiership, in the hope they can be persuaded to participate in a no-confidence vote against the government.

Negotiations are also taking place with the 'Litvinites' and Communists even though the Communists do not officially support the idea of Tymoshenko's resignation. They do not want to play into the hands of Baloha and Yushchenko; furthermore the sponsors of the Communist party currently have reasonably good relations with Tymoshenko.

'Segodnya's' sources consider that after Tymoshenko's resignation, she would remain acting premier but would will lose much influence in parliament, accelerating the formation of a broad NUNS-PoR coalition. And if the broad coalition is not successfully created, early elections could be declared after two months if a new government is not formed by then.

The 'Regionals' current activity in this matter is being spurred by paralysis amongst their allies in the president's secretariat. "Bank Street [the president's secretariat] seem to be in a blind alley right now," says a 'Segodnya' source close to the President. - "Formation of the 'Shirka' [broad coalition] is not working out - the "nasheukraintsi" can't all be persuaded, and they're afraid to make Yanukovych PM again. They're also frightened of early elections, since not they don't have anyone else to go to with them."

In such situation, in order to overcome the impasse and nudge the President into action, "Regionaly" are preparing to force the KabMin into resignation, and then see what happens. Moreover early elections could be advantageous for PoR - the party's ratings are growing, while those of the 'oranges' are falling.

But BYuT do hold a couple of trump cards in their hand. As mentioned, they are becoming more friendly not only with the Communists, but also with Litvin's bloc. There is talk in the lobbies of active negotiations between BYuT people and entry of the 'Litvinites' into the democratic coalition. But their result is far from clear.

Semenyuk at sea

2008-06-10T01:08:00.008+03:00

Last Thursday a vote was to take place in parliament to relieve head of the Ukrainian State Property Fund, Valentyna Semenyuk, of her duties. Voting did not occur because she was out of the country. Parliamentary speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk informed deputies that she was undergoing urgent medical tests abroad.

Now "seriously ill' Semenyuk [see photo] has been spotted in a swanky Turkish seaside resort living it up with her hubby of six months, Vitaliy Samsonenko.

LEvko thinks she should be quite safe swimming in the sea because there is a whaling ban in the Mediterranean.

Ruling elite above the law

2008-06-06T00:46:00.006+03:00

An article in 'Obozrevatel' informs readers that in response to questions concerning her Ukrainian citizenship, 'first?' lady Kateryna Yushchenko published a response on 3rd June in which she claims she had revoked her US citizenship at the end of August 2007.

Curiously, the official presidential site informs readers that she received her Ukrainian citizenship in 2005, so for two years she benefited from being a citizen of both the USA and of Ukraine. According to Ukrainian law this is illegal.

Oboz compares this to the situation in which Davyd Zhvanya now finds himself. He was one of Yushchenko's and Orange Revolution's main financial sponsors, but is now being hounded for allegedly obtaining Ukrainian citizenship improperly. Perhaps not coincidentally, he has been most critical of the president and his close associates' recent behaviour.

Oboz concludes: "Speaking totally bluntly, Ukrainian civil servants (both in power and in opposition - makes no difference) have become so detached from their fellow citizen-voters, living in their own devised, comfortable world, that in a few years we will not be discussing the format of authority, rather the raising of black banner of anarchy."

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NUNS say they will support Andriy Kozhemyakin's appointment to head Ukraine's State Property Fund. This is excellent news - to discover more about this man's previous activites, key in his surname into 'foreignnotes' "search blog" box.. Yushchenko and Rinat Akmetov will not be happy about this..

p.s. LEvko is busy moving house, so is not keeping up with events as much as usual..apologies for this.

Political repression returning?

2008-06-02T01:43:00.006+03:00

Minister of Internal Affairs Yuriy Lutsenko has not yet returned from his hastily-arranged visit to Moldova. On 29th May he was summoned to the Prosecutor-General's office, but, fearing arrest, is reluctant to return.

Lutsenko lawyers are even considering him claiming asylum in a neighbouring country on account of alleged political persecution by President's Secretariat, and its head Viktor Baloha.

Lutsenko, of course, was one of the top field generals during the Orange Revolution. Also in the firing line is one of Yushchenko's main financial sponsors prior to the O.R., Davyd Zhvanya, whose Ukrainian citizenship is now being queried. Other Tymoshenko associates are also being 'stepped on'. But how real is the threat of persecution of cabinet ministers by the President and his Secretariat?

Some observers and journalists are claiming with increasing frequency that political repression, akin to that which took place during Kuchma's period in office, may indeed be returning.

Serhiy Rakhmanin [who recently interviewed the PM on television] in an excellent piece in the current 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' says, "Several days ago the head of the cabinet publicly announced that repressions in the country have already started. Many dispute this, but there is logic in the premier's words. Furthermore, there is a feeling that this time Yulia Volodymyrivna is being completely sincere. People who have known her for a long time have noticed fear in Tymoshenko's eyes - a fear that was not there even in the days of the 'Ukraine without Kuchma' campaign. The same fear can also be felt in the words of Yuriy Lutsenko, whose natural fearlessness is currently in conflict with his instinct of self-preservation... Are there grounds to talk about repression, rather than a determination to establish legal order? Certainly there are."

Volodymyr Ariev, a former Channel 5 journalist and now a NS-nominated NUNS deputy, in a local TV broadcast in Lutsk, expressed similar thoughts: "Political ordered persecution and use of criminal cases at a particular moment is an indication of repression. Not in order to find the truth and determine fairness, as should be the case by law enforcement agencies, but rather at the required political moment. He also claimed that, "Many in the mass media do not want to interfere in the political fight, particularly at the central level, or they are prepared to take the money." He said that this is a problem even greater that the stories deliberately 'planted' in the mass media during Kuchma's period in office.

p.s. 'Segodnya' reports: "Bank Street [Pres's administration] loses hope for a 'broad coalition' but are considering dissolution of parliament"

It quotes a source from the secretariat: “Yes, earlier we calculated, that by June in NUNS more than half of the parliamentary fraction - 37 people, would agree to leave the coalition with BYuT and create 'broad' coalition with Party of Regions. However now there is practically no hope of this. We can't get the 37. At a maximum, even with large reservations, we can gather is 20-25. And it's unlikely this will change in the next months."

Therefore on Bank Street the opinion is strengthening that by Autumn is will be necessary to call for early elections. Tymoshenko will win, but the broad coalition will be able to be created. A reason to break up parliament can easily be orchestrated. For example its work can be blocked for a month, or the government can be dismissed. It won't be possible to create a new one in two months".

One of the leaders of Party of Regions told 'Segodnya' that he had heard talk of new early elections, but nevertheless considered: "Yushchenko will adhere to his promise, and sooner or later a minimum 50 NUNS deputies will be with us. But if the matter goes to elections, then we will not be against this".

Out on her own

2008-05-31T01:06:00.003+03:00

If you can understand Ukrainian, watch Yulia Tymoshenko's formidable performance on the TRK 'Ukraina' TV channel last night here

No wonder enemies are so fearful of her.

'Lucky' Lutsenko does a runner?

2008-05-30T02:25:00.004+03:00

According to an article in 'Oboz', Ukrainian interior minister Yuriy Lutsenko and head of the NS part of the NU-NS parliamentary bloc has hastily left for the Republic of Moldova, fearing arrest.

The visit was organized at the last minute for the minister, but it was not planned and was not co-ordinated with the Moldavian side. Neither the embassy of Moldova in Ukraine, nor the embassy of Ukraine in Moldova knew anything about it.

'Oboz' claims Lutsenko decided to leave the territory of Ukraine because the seriousness of the crimes of which he is accused is such that they could lead to his detention while he is under investigation.

In all probability Lutsenko will not return to Ukraine at the end of his visit to Moldova, and will attempt to organize an official or unofficial trip to other country.

Lutsenko's lawyers are checking the possibility of requesting asylum in one of Ukraine's neighbouring countries as a result of alleged persecution of the interior minister by the President's secretariat and its head, Viktor Baloha.

Two former Ukrainian interior ministers Vasyl Tsushko, and Mykola Bilokon have previously sought refuge on Russian territory, and another, Yuri Kravchenko, "committed suicide", bang, bang.

Yush pulls one PoR sleeve while Yulka pulls other sleeve

2008-05-27T17:43:00.011+03:00

In an interview in the latest 'Russian Newsweek', PM Yulia Tymoshenko admits co-operating with Party of Regions on voting through a new Constitution in parliament [which would turn Ukraine into a parliamentary republic].

BYuT and PoR would have to vote together for this to be achieved. Currently PoR have 175 parliamentary deputies, BYuT 156, NUNS 72, Communists 27 and Lytvyn's block 27.

"Qu: But why are you still working on the new constitution [project] but are not introducing it in parliament?

Because we as yet are not sure of sufficient support of two thirds of parliament. But we are conducting constant consultations in regard to this.

Qu: Even with Viktor Yanukovych's Party of Regions?

Yes, and with them also.

Qu: Through mediators?

No, directly; as with all other fractions in parliament. And as soon as we feel we have 300 votes of support, we will immediately submit a new Constitution [in parliament]."

The 'Russian Newsweek' article claims that BYuT and PoR have secretly collaborated in writing a draft version of the Ukrainian Constitution, and a mutually agreed new version is all but ready.

Tymoshenko recently said, "I consider a parliamentary form of government will finally bring order and everything will be as in Germany. There will be a Chancellor and there will be order." On what will happen with the head of state, she remarks, "the president remains and countrywide elections for the presidency remain, but with reduced powers, as in Poland."

[The interview itself is posted on Tymoshenko's official website too.]

President Yushchenko, on the other hand, needs Party of Regions for his broad coalition project..which would drive Tymoshenko back into opposition. When Yushchenko was asked by journalists last Sunday for whom he was voting in Kyiv's mayoral elections, he replied: " My affections have changed somewhat, because I'm convinced the processes that have taken place in Kyiv lead us to change our assessment and our approaches to those political forces who even a few years ago where popular and synchronous with the feelings of people. So, its changed somewhat, but I voted with my conscience."

Not much of an endorsement for the orange candidates then..

p.s. The appointment of the former executive director of controversial gas-trading company RosUkrEnergo, and also Gazprom board member, Konstantin Chuychenko, as an aide to the Russian president and head of the audit directorate of the presidential secretariat indicatesthat RosUkrEnergo is "not just an appendage to theRussian authorities but is the authorities", according Vitaliy Portnikov writing in 'Kontrakty'. He warns that politicians who want to establish a "transparent scheme" for gas deliveriesto Ukraine should now recognize that they are fighting against the Kremlin, and it is not clear that this is a fight Ukraine can win. [Thanks Peter]

Bad day for BYuT

2008-05-26T23:34:00.004+03:00

Leonid Chernovetsky, by obtaining about 36% of votes cast, has won a handsome victory in the Kyiv mayoral elections. His two nearest opponents, BYuT's Oleksandr Turchynov and boxer Vitaliy Klychko received about 18% each. There's no two ways about this - for Yulia Tymoshenko and for BYuT, who forced the early elections, the result is a major set-back. There will, no doubt, be much political gloating in the Chernovetsky camp.

Other 'democratic' candidates faired badly too, and it looks as if the PoR candidate will barely achieve 3% of the votes.

As to the future of Ukraine's national politics, one commentator says, "..it is important on how Party of Regions [now] conducts itself. If it decides it is necessary to support Yushchenko in order to 'finish off' Tymoshenko, they could be next [in power]. If it makes the right choice, by Autumn we will have political stability."

Last Friday Yulia Tymoshenko attended a heads of CIS conference in Minsk and had a meeting with Russian premier Vladimir Putin. There are reports she may agree to Russia's Black Sea fleet continuing to use its naval base on the Crimean peninsula after 2017, and may 'back pedal' on Ukraine's entry into NATO in exchange for Putin's support in the next presidential elections in Ukraine. This was part of a discussion on an acceptable price for Russian gas...

Lutsenko expects Tymoshenko to be sacked soon

2008-05-25T15:07:00.010+03:00

Interior minister Yuriy Lutsenko [who is also head of the Narodna Samooborona faction of the NU-NS block], in a Radio interview yesterday, claimed that on May 30th the National Security and Defence Council will pass a resolution on the the unsatisfactory perfomance of the government. Members of the government have been invited by Council Secretary Raisa Bohatyryova to attend the NSDC meeting on that date.

"On the 30th, whether the government will turn up or not, obviously, they plan to deliver a verdict on the unsatisfactory performance of the government. After this, in parliament, they will vote for its resignation. Taking into account Baloha's group of troublemakers, who have about 15 votes inside NUNS, they can vote it through," stated Lutsenko.

"Tymoshenko will become acting Head of Government, we all will become an acting government, and after this, probably a new coalition will be formed," he suggested.

Lutsenko made similar claims again in a Channel 5 TV interview. Depending on the results of today's politically important Kyiv mayoral and city council elections, a reformation of the VR ruling coalition could take place.

"Final consultations are taking place right now, and next week [a non session week for parliament] will be used to prepare the 'shyrka' [broad coalition]. A internal political take-over is being prepared in parliament. They want to give back power to shadows from the past."

A couple of days ago, at a public meeting, Tymoshenko and Lutsenko jointly declared they had agreed that the BYuT candidate for Kyiv mayor, Oleksandr Turchynov, was the sole BYuT/NUNS candidate for mayor. Today head of NUNS political council, Vyacheslav Kyryenko denied this.

"This is the personal opinion of Yuriy Vitaliyovych, which, unfortunately will not help unite the democrats in Kyiv. Having come to the polling stations on Sunday, voters will see that the number of candidates on their ballot slips have not changed, and the current city head is being opposed by a whole number of candidates from the democratic forces," explained Kyrylenko.

Meanwhile, the Prosecutor General, on 26th May, is intending to dismiss Lutsenko, according to head of the parliamentary commission for tackling organized crime and corruption, NU deputy Hennadiy Moskal. He claims that the president's secretariat is behind this.

A confused picture, to say the least.

In elections since the O.R. BYuT has consistently performed above expectations. If this trend continues in today's voting in Kyiv LEvko thinks the current administration should be safe for a while yet. But if they don't..big battles for power, and maybe a constitutional crisis lie ahead. The problem for Yushchenko is that the pro-presidential NU-NS project is coming apart at the seams. The NS portion, lead by Lutsenko is all but detached already, and lesser partners, e.g. former Foreign Minister Borys Tarasyuk's 'Narodnyi Rukh Ukrainy', are drifting closer to BYuT too.

Tymoshenko to go in June?

2008-05-23T01:01:00.004+03:00

Today the staid 'Ekonomicheskie Izvestia' [EI] ran this story:

[President's] Secretariat has devised a new format for the coalition

Yulia Tymoshenko's government could be forced to resign by a resolution of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC), whose next session could take place on May 30th, according to a source close to the Security Council leadership.

The basis for the resignation could be the new version of the law on the Cabinet of Ministers, according to which the government is obliged to comply with any decision of the NSDC and activated by Presidential Decree. Yesterday the NSDC Secretary Raisa Bohatyryova reported that the main topic of the May 30th Council session will be the activity of government, adding that this was at the initiation of Viktor Yushchenko.

Also in some mass media outlets there has appeared information yesterday, that the government coulk be sacked already today. The premier would be replaced by VR speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk, with Bohatyryova taking over his current post. According to EI, the source for this information was one a Party of Regions people's deputy who is close to Viktor Yanukovych.

But NSDC deputy secretary Andriy Pyshnyi told EI that the Security Council does not have sufficient authority to make a decision on the resignation of government. "On May 30th we will examine the state of the domestic market and there will, possibly be proposed a question on the control of execution of decisions of the NSDC," said Pyshnyi.

PoR people's deputy Vasyl Khara considers that Viktor Yushchenko cannot yet force Tymoshenko's resignation. “Yushchenko does not have a realistic mechanism for this - in parliament he has insufficient votes,” stated Khara. He considers that there will not be a direct proposal from the President at the next session of the NSDC demanding the resignation of the premier: “There will be only open and comprehensive evaluation of Tymoshenko's activities in order to create a situation, where the President no longer owes Tymoshenko anything". The Deputy emphasized that the parliamentary forces will not begin to undertake any active actions until after May 25th - the day of the pre-term Kyiv mayoral and city council elections.

Another PoR People's deputy Vladislav Lukyanov thinks the resignation of government could occur during the first 10 days of June. 'DerzhKomStat' will publish data on the rates of inflation in May by June 6th or 7th. It will be politically justifiable to force the government to resign precisely after this publication,” stated Lukyanov.

One additional path to the resignation of government could be the reformation of the BYuT/NUNS coalition. Yesterday Yulia Tymoshenko spoke of attempts by the President's secretariat to force the 'People's Self-defence' (NS) to support the creation of a wide coalition. She described the actions of Presidential secretariat officials directed against VR deputy Davyd Zhvaniya. The Prosecutor General Olexander Medvedko, on the basis of a letter from deputy head of the secretariat Ihor Pukshin, referred a request to the Svyatoshinskiy regional court in Kiev demanding they re-examine the granting of Ukrainian citizenship to Zhvaniya. [Update: a criminal case has now been opened against Zhvaniya, who was of course, one of Yushchenko's closest allies during the OR].

The Secretariat wants to be the third participant in the coalition, Viktor Baloha through his seven loyal Nasha Ukraina deputies, wants to hold the decisive vote, according to deputy chairman of the NUNS fraction, Taras Stetskiv. The People's Self defense group had already requested the President sacks Baloha. But Taras Stetskiv added that a joint statement from BYuT and NUNS demanding Viktor Baloha's resignation "has thus far not yet been prepared”.

p.s. Today it was PoR's turn to block the working of the VR.
Update: The blocking of parliament stymied the deal struck between coalition partners NUNS and BYuT to support the sacking of Valentyna Semenyuk [who according to president Yushchenko, is still head of the State Property Fund] in exchange for BYuT dropping their proposal to form a temporary special commission to investigate changes to the Constitution. Semenyuk at the SPF has been a major obstruction to PM Tymoshenko's privatization plans.

Looming broad coalition?

2008-05-20T23:00:00.003+03:00

PM Tymoshenko and her government have suffered several set-backs in recent days. The Odessa Portside Plant privatisation sale, so important to Tymoshenko, will not now take place. Inflation is running at over 1.5% per month. BYuT will will not perform as well as hoped in Sunday's Kyiv mayoral and city council elections.

And now there is talk of 'Regiony' conducting talks about formation of a broad [PoR/NUNS] parliamentary coalition.

Here's a bit from a '4post article':

The process of drawing out the nomination procedure for the PoR candidate for the post of first deputy chairman of the VR may indicate that negotiations on the formation of a broad [PoR/NUNS] coalition are taking place.

According to BYuT VR deputy Volodymyr Filenko, PoR will not make a selection for the post of the first deputy VR chairman, until a broad coalition is formed. The 'nardep' claimed this broad coalition is to be formed after the pre-term mayoral elections in Kyiv have taken place next Sunday.

“The longer the process of nomination for election to the post of vice-speaker is dragged out, the more real this plan becomes,” he said.

Filenko also noted that, according to previous information, after the formation of the broad coalition takes place, a PoR representative will take up the position of VR chairman, and a technical candidate [anyone but Yanukovych?] will become prime minister.

"An oligarchic plot headed by the president is being hatched against his own nation and BYuT," says Filenko.

Bungs in Odessa Portside Plant pipework?

2008-05-20T16:38:00.010+03:00

The [postponed] 'privatization' of the Odessa Portside Plant has been a running major source of conflict between PM Tymoshenko and President Yushchenko. Last Friday the National Security and Defence Council delivered a humiliating blow, forcing Tymoshenko to back down and delay the sale which was planned for today, until further notice.

Mustafa Nayem, in an excellent article in 'Ukrainska Pravda' provides background to the twists and turns of the entire saga.

Below is just a brief portion:

"Over the four years following the events that took place on the Maidan, both Viktor Yushchenko and Yulia Tymoshenko have several times changed their views on the merits of selling off the Odessa Portside [chemical] Plant.

Yushchenko's position has swung according to the firmness of his relations with the government of the day. He has twice expressed his full support for selling the plant: first time in July 2005, before his relations with Tymoshenko drastically deteriorated, and then in January 2006 when his loyal ally Yuriy Yekhanurov was in charge of the government.

But Yushchenko has also categorically rejected the possibility of selling off of the plant, first after sacking Tymoshenko in 2005, then on the eve of the 2007 parliamentary elections, when the Yanukovych administration were trying to sell it off.

'Regionaly', who are now criticising the Tymoshenko government for attempting to replenish state coffers by privatizing the OPP, are in a state of amnesia and reluctant to mention that a year ago it was they that were trying to do the same.

Tymoshenko's path to her current position on the privatization of the OPP is equally tortuous. Having previously initiated submission of the OPP onto the list of objects to be privatized, in 2007 she appealed to Yushchenko in person demanding that he prevent Yanukovych from selling the plant. The leader of BYuT insisted that the plant cannot be split away from the portside trans-shipment facilities [perevalka], even though today her government itself is proposing sale of both the plant and the trans-shipment facilities together."

[Bung - a British slang term, used to refer to a bribe, inducement or incentive in business.]

Itergrum

2008-05-18T02:00:00.005+03:00

As I mentioned in my previous blog, the US Vanco Energy Company, with which Yanukovych's government signed an agreement to develop the Kerch section of the Black sea shelf in 2007, has a Ukrainian financial partner - the Donbas fuel and energy company DTEK, controlled to multi-millionaire Rinat Akhmetov. Nothing necessarily wrong with this.

But apart from Akhmetov, Vanco's Black sea project will be financed also by Shadowlight Investments Ltd owned by Russian businessman Eugene Novitskiy, and a certain Integrum Technologies Ltd. The latter is allegedly a subsidiary of an undisclosed Austrian investment holding. Some allege it could be a cover for 'Gazprom' .

When Minister of the Environment Heorhiy Filipchuk is asked by 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' who is behind Intergrum, and whether it is the president's brother Petro Yushchenko, or the Klyuev brothers [senior Party of Regions figures] who were behind the company, he replies that he had had no official confirmation of this.

Filipchuk's ministry had recently withdrawn Vanco's hydrocarbon exploration and extraction licence. This will, no doubt be challenged or ignored. But shouldn't Ukraine's citizens know with whom they could be sharing the country's hydrocarbon wealth?

It took many months for the people behind the infamous RosUkrEnergo to reveal themselves. President Yushchenko flatly denied knowing who they were. Hopefully Integrum's backers will not be so shy.

Vanco's bankers?

2008-05-16T01:55:00.006+03:00

In recent days PM Tymoshenko has repeatedly claimed that when president Yushchenko 'blessed' a deal giving US petroleum company Vanco Energy the green light to commence oil and gas projects in the Black sea off the Crimean coast, it was a betrayal of national interests would amount to a 'RosUkrEnergo-2'.

She has publicly asserted that Vanco’s Ukrainian off-shoot, Vanco Prekerchensa Ltd., is an offshore structure registered to four girls, and that the company has only token assets of 12,000 hryven [about $6,000].

According to an item in 'Ukrainska Pravda', Vanco’s senior vice president Jeffrey Mitchell revealed today that Vanco's partner in its Kerch shelf project is DTEK, part of Rinat Akhmetov's SCM financial-industrial group. Vanco are the 'technical boys', while DTEK are the financial investor in the project.

Tymoshenko is enemy #1 for the Donetsk oligarchs, the biggest of whom is Akhmetov. She is trying to sink the recent Dniproenergo deal which enabled Akhmetov's group to significantly increase their oblenergo holdings. The deal had allegedly been 'approved' by the president, perhaps as a 'pay-off' for PoR agreeing to participate in last Autumn's elections after Yushchenko had contentiously dismissed the Verhkovna Rada last April.

Akhmetov, is allegedly "interested in a second term of office for Yushchenko". One of his close allies, Boris Kolesnikov, is known to be quite chummy with head of the pres's secretariat, Viktor Baloha. Another, Raisa Bohatyryova, is secretary of the powerful National Security and Defence Council.

However, some other PoR big-shots, including Andriy Klyuev are not against some co-operation with BYuT on matters of Constitutional reform, while others consider recent events in the VR to be the 'death-throes' of the democratic coalition.

No quick resolution of current political crisis in sight

2008-05-15T01:47:00.007+03:00

After yesterday's stormy events in the VR, [see Tymoshenko's impromptu press briefing providing an explanation for BYuT's behaviour here] a meeting between the president, premier, VR speaker, and leaders of the parliamentary fractions took place today (Wednesday), but produced no result or compromise.

Leader of the Communist fraction, Petro Symonenko said, "The president did not make any suggestions at all about what measures can be adopted to stabilize the situation. Discussions did not take place constructively, but in actual fact were [just] arguments between members of the coalition."

PoR VR deputy Oleksandr Yefremov said, "The principal reason, in my opinion for BYuT's blocking [of parliament] is the removal of Semenyuk [head of the State Property Fund, whom Tymoshenko's government has replaced with one of their own - Andriy Portnov.] BYuT want to gain access to the sale of particularly tempting state enterprises - 'UkrTelekom', and Odessa Portside Plant."

Portnov himself is adamant that he will not obey Yushchenko's edicts, adding that the sale of the OPP will take place on 20th May via open procedures, "Irrespective of the declarations of the closed stock company of Valentyna Petrivna [Semenyuk] and Viktor Andriyovych [Yushchenko]."

"Despite the hysterics of highly placed officials," three prospective investors have already paid in a deposit for the OPP, claimed Portnov.

Tonight Tymoshenko took part in a public meeting supporting BYuT's candidate in Kyiv's mayoral elections, Oleksandr Turchynov. Her anti-Yushchenko rhetoric continues unabated.

Yesterday president Yushchenko failed to address the Ukrainian parliament and held a press briefing in one of the parliament's corridors. At his side were his press secretary Iryna Vannikova, National Security and Defence Council secretary, Raisa Bohatyryova, and... Valentyna Semenyuk.. [The good, the bad, and the ugly? or maybe 'Vitya's Angels'..only joking..only joking..]

Yushchenko flew off to Great Britain later this afternoon, having given an interview to the BBC and to the British Sky news. A transcript is to appear on BBC websites.

Blocking of parliament by PoR for many days earlier this year only harmed their political standing...BYuT will be aware of this, so LEvko's hunch is that some kind of compromise will be made soon, but the bad blood will remain.

Rescuing a revolution

2008-05-14T01:43:00.003+03:00

On Tuesday BYuT blocked the working of the Ukrainian parliament [VR] and prevented President Yushchenko from making a state-of-the-nation speech, plunging the country into yet another crisis. Opposition Party of Regions deputy Nestor Shufrich considers that had BYuT not blocked parliament, then PoR would have. [Maybe they can come to some form of alternating shift-sharing arrangement..]

Seriously though, I reproduce this piece, in full, from the latest 'Moscow Times', before it goes to 'subscribers only':

Rescuing a Revolution By Elmar Brok, Jas Gawronski and Charles Tannock

There is no more depressing sight in politics than a leader who, desperate to cling to power, ruins his country in the process. By his recent actions, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko now looks like he has joined the long list of rulers who have sacrificed their country's future simply to prolong their misrule.

Yushchenko's recent moves in both politics and economics suggest that his instinct for self-preservation knows no limits. Once a proud supporter of the free market and the man who banished hyperinflation in Ukraine in the 1990s, Yushchenko has in recent weeks vetoed -- sometimes on flimsy grounds and sometimes for no stated reason at all -- a series of vital privatizations. He blocked the sale of regional energy companies, for example, because he claims that their privatization will threaten the country's "national security," though it is corrupt and incompetent state management of these companies that is threatening Ukraine's security by making it vulnerable to energy cutoffs.

Yushchenko seems motivated only by a desire to damage his prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, whom he perceives as the biggest threat to his re-election in 2010. To undermine the Tymoshenko Cabinet even more, Ukraine's Central Bank, under the leadership of a presidential crony, is pursuing a policy that is importing high inflation. When confronted about this, Volodymyr Stelmakh, the bank's governor, is said to have told Tymoshenko that his policies would destroy her government before they broke the back of the economy.

In politics, too, Yushchenko is playing with fire, having lost the support of most of Our Ukraine, the party he created. Since his victory in 2004, Yushchenko's popularity ratings have plummeted to about 8 percent. As a result, the party has been reduced to junior-partner status in Tymoshenko's coalition government.

Instead of trying to recover support by pursuing the reforms and privatizations that he promised during the Orange Revolution, Yushchenko is planning to take the few members of Our Ukraine that he still controls and forge a strategic alliance with the Party of the Regions, the very party that opposed the country's turn to democracy and an open society. To clinch this deal, the Party of the Regions would dump their unelectable leader, Viktor Yanukovych, as their presidential candidate and adopt Yushchenko as their standard-bearer.

Yushchenko has only himself to blame for his political predicament. His decision in 2006 to bring Yanukovych out of the wilderness and back into the premiership was an act from which he has never recovered. Only when Yanukovych sought to use the parliament to strip the president of his powers did Yushchenko summon the will to fight back, dismissing Yanukovych's government and calling for a special election last year. That election, however, was won by Tymoshenko, who has parlayed her return to power into a commanding lead in the polls for the coming presidential election.

Throttling Ukraine's economy and political system need not have been Yushchenko's legacy. After he came to power in 2005 on a huge wave of popular support, he started off well. The economy was growing, and he and Tymoshenko began to tackle the country's black hole of corruption. Moreover, he seemed genuinely committed to reconciliation between the country's Russian-speaking east and Ukrainian-speaking west. Throughout his presidency, he has overseen fair elections and a free and vibrant press.

But Yushchenko's chronic dithering and poor political judgment consistently undermine his fundamental democratic credentials. Sadly, he now appears poised to make another serious political miscalculation, because he is backing a radical constitutional reform aimed at creating a purely presidential system. That proposal has no chance of success in the parliament. Yushchenko sought to circumvent the parliament by way of a national referendum, but the Constitutional Court has ruled that only the parliament may determine how constitutional reform is to occur.

Although Yushchenko seems unable to save himself politically, Europe can help both him and Ukraine's democracy. Tymoshenko is prepared to offer Yushchenko a compromise that Europe's leaders should urge him to accept. Her proposals for constitutional reform would make Ukraine a pure parliamentary republic, while retaining a president as head of state and commander in chief of the armed forces. Yushchenko can yet secure an honorable place in history if, instead of undermining and obstructing Tymoshenko at every turn, he supports her anti-corruption initiatives and constitutional reform, the latter aimed at bringing the country's political system closer to Europe's parliamentary democracies as well as to facilitate the country's European integration.

Given that Yushchenko has almost no chance of winning the next presidential election, Tymoshenko has made him a generous offer. If accepted, it promises Ukraine, which aspires to European Union membership and is currently negotiating a free trade agreement with the EU, the stable, effective and democratic government that it needs. Europe's leaders, who helped broker a peaceful and democratic end to the Orange Revolution, should once again help Kiev avoid political deadlock.

Elmar Brok, Jas Gawronski and Charles Tannock are members of the EU parliament [well-meaning friends of Ukraine..LEvko]

will the mice play?

2008-05-13T02:25:00.004+03:00

The pro-PoR 'Segodnya' goes with some speculation on what will happen in parliament on Tuesday.

Here are some loosely translated portions:

Either Yushchenko's power will be decimated, or Yanukovych will be made premier

BYuT prepares to make Ukraine a parliamentary republic - 'Regiony' still pondering..

After relative calm in Ukraine's political arena during the May holidays, the country's leading parliamentary parties are again returning to battle in the next session of the Supreme Council [VR] which restarts on Tuesday. The key issue for parliament will be constitutional reform.

VR deputies [nardepy] from both Party of Regions and BYuT both say they have preliminary projects for changes in the fundamental. At the moment there are no understandings between them, even on joint voting on the creation of a constitution committee in the VR, to say nothing of joint voting on the Constitution itself.

On the eve of May 9th, BYuT revealed the outlines of its version of the fundamental law. It's basic theme - the power of the President is to be reduced to zero. "The President loses the right to assign governors," said BYuT 'nardep' Valeriy Pisarenko, one of the authors of the draft project."The President will lose the right to block the activity of the organs of executive power. Formation of the KabMin will be the exclusive right of the ruling parliamentary coalition, moreover it will not have to co-ordinate the candidature of premier with the President. Furthermore, the President will not have the right to submit to parliament his candidatures for the post of the Ministers of Defense and Foreign Affairs, as presently”.

Former PoR minister of justice Alexander Lavrinovich informed 'Segodnya' that the Constitution text proposed by the Regionaly, to be submitted for consideration by the VR, is not yet ready, although he let it be known that PoR is also disposed to reducing the authorities of the President, and to enlarging the rights of local self-government and elected regional authorities.

One of the leaders of PoR, deputy Sergey Lyovochkin, added that in 'Regional's' constitution the Russian language will be provided the status of second state language, as well as non aligned status for Ukraine. (Pisarenko told 'Segodnya' that thus far, BYuT are not ready to discuss introduction of these two critical items into their version of the Constitution).

Lyovochkin assured 'Segodnya', that they do not have any agreements with Tymoshenko about any joint project. As far as the creation of special commission in parliament to examine changes to the Constitution together with BYuT is concerned, there is no common opinion fomed yet. 'Segodnya's' source in PoR indicates that the party will not support the creation of this commission, if the President speaks out against it. But one prominent 'Regional', Andrey Klyuev, considers that in any event this commission must be created.

Apparently for this reason, deputies have decided not to introduce the question of the commission into the VR agenda. More negotiation is required on this.

The absence of a united position between PoR and BYuT with respect to proposed changes in the Constitution can be explained by the games they are both playing with the President.

A source from 'Regiony' said, "At the moment the party is disposed to discuss with the President the possibility of forming a wide parliamentary coalition, with Yanukovych as PM, so the party will not support the anti-presidential projects of BYuT, particularly as the President, in particular conversations, has let it be known that he was prepared to make specific concessions on the question of the Russian language in the project of fundamental law”.

BYuT has thus far only increased its anti-presidential rhetoric; however, their nearest political ally - the leader of "People Self-Defence", Yuriy Lutsenko, has outlined a scheme of possible compromise between Tymoshenko and Yushchenko. Yesterday Interior Minister Lutsenko stated that he proposed the following to the President: He dismisses the head his secretariat Viktor Baloha, ceases 'destructive activity' against the government, and BYuT, in response, places aside its changes in Constitution. Lutsenko explained that that Yushchenko thus far has rejected this proposal, but who knows what could happen in the future.

Yushchenko was in Lithuania today, and is supposed to be in Israel and Great Britain later this week.

'While the cat's away, the mice will play'...English saying..

Tymoshenko's bluff?

2008-05-08T01:08:00.004+03:00

Premier Tymoshenko's personal website runs a posting entitled: "Yulia Tymoshenko is expecting to submit a project of changes to the Constitution next week." It quotes her as saying: "I really expect that next week changes may be submitted to parliament on the basis of a consolidated majority in the VR [parliament]."

'Gazeta po Kiyevski' have provided quick analysis on her declaration:

BYuT leader stakes all - it cannot be excluded that she is bluffing, and that there are not the 300 votes in parliament required to change the Constitution.

The premier is possibly simply frightening the president that she will reduce his powers if he proves to be intractable.

Prime minister Yulia Timoshenko has unexpectedly declared that next week in parliament she may introduce changes to the Constitution. And she hopes that for this purpose, a constitutional majority of 300 votes will be collected. Rumours of unofficial negotiations between BYuT and the opposition may be shown to be true. The purpose of these arrangements, is, clearly, the transfer of powers between the government, the president and parliament.

Political scientist Konstantin Bondarenko assumes the leader of BYuT's statement indicates that she is already aware of the results of these secret negotiations.

Others do not agree: while the Constitution project has not received public support and all political forces have not approved it, statements about 300 votes is mere political spin or bluff, they say. Tymoshenko simply wishes to score political points over the president.
Blackmail or not, next week parliament returns to work after the May holidays.

'Gazeta po Kiyevski's sources reveal that events may pan out very quickly: the bill is to be sent to the Constitutional Court and the current VR session is to accept it in the first reading. BYuT will demand the president quickly puts forward any proposed ammendments. "We will consider all proposals, introduced to parliament," said BYuT deputy Valery Pisarenko. "We propose cardinal changes be made on how power is distributed. They will concern parliament, the president, Constitutional Court, the Central Electoral Committee, and the Office of Public Prosecutor. It will be the reformation of the country to a parliamentary republic. And the opposition will acquire the right to form governing bodies in parliament and to supervise executive authority. The president will no longer have powers to influence the economy. He will not be able to block the work of the government. The president will remain the guarantor of the rights and freedoms of citizens. Governors will finally be subordinate to the Cabinet of Ministers. The president will be only able to send them greeting cards on Holy days. He will not have any relation to executive authorities, and appointments in the system of executive authority will be made with the participation of the prime-minister," said the BYuT deputy.

Pisarenko added the president can make proposals, but doubts, that Yushchenko could gain even 100 votes of support. Optimistic forecasters in BYuT suggest that by the autumn the country could already be living under the new Constitution.

But in the Party of Regions, on whose support Tymoshenko is counting, no-one has yet confirmed these arrangements.

"Perhaps, conceptually in the things BYuT proposes it is possible to say, that they can be supported," said 'Regional' Yuriy Miroshnichenko. "We have our own project; we too have prepared systemic changes intended to finalise political reform, the liquidation of two centers of influence on executive authority, and guaranteeing real local self-government."

The pro-presidential fraction, NUNS, meanwhile does not have a uniform position on these initiatives. In the opinion of NUNS deputy Yuriy Karmazin, a minimum of a year is required for the process of modification of the fundamental law of the land, so therefore it is hardly possible to expect any amendments to the Constitution already during this VR session.

Even though the compromise of 2004, when many changes to the Constitution were brought about in one packet, is still too memorable, this was result of political arrangements at the time of the orange revolution.

LEvko wonders if this is just a bit of 'tit-for-tat'. Some days ago Tymoshenko postponed an official visit to Sweden because of the tense political situation in Ukraine. Later next week Yushchenko is to be in Great Britain on an official visit. He is to meet members of the Royal family and top politicians, and also address a prestigious gathering. Maybe Yulka is just trying to spoil his trip..

Bad day for oranges

2008-05-07T01:25:00.004+03:00

If the Kyiv mayoral elections were to take place right now, Leonid Chernovetsky would receive 36-41% of the vote, Vitaliy Klychko 20-24%, BYuT's candidate Aleksandr Turchynov 10-15%, and PoR's Vasyl Horbal' 2.4-4.5%.

BYuT are wondering how they can extracate themselves from the mess, having forced through the early mayoral elections in the first place. If Turchynov steps aside to increase the chances of another 'democratic' candidate succeeding, then it will be a humiliation for the high profile deputy PM Turchynov, and also for BYuT. But if he remains a candidate and receives only 10% or so of the votes, and loopy Chenovetsky wins, this will be and even greater humiliation.

Yesterday President Yushchenko appointed several political 'big-beasts' to serve on the supervisory council of the Kyiv Taras Shevchenko National University. Amongs their number was disgraced former President Leonid Danylovych Kuchma.

Chairman of the council is to be Volodymyr Lytvyn - head of his own 20-seat parliamentary block. He is widely known as an academic plagiarist.

I wonder what the students make of all of this..