Much for Yanukovych to ponder after first round of presidential elections

Although the first round result indicates Yanukovych is far more likely to be sitting in the president's chair after the February 7th run-off, there is much for both of the two remaining candidates' teams to consider, particulary on how to hold or gain control over parliament and the cabinet of ministers.

Tymoshenko, a political fire-fighter and crisis manager par excellence always relishes the position of underdog - her chances of victory cannot be entirely written off. The recent rapidly fluctuating ratings of lesser candidates Serhiy Yatsenyuk and Serhiy Tihipko reveal that a significant portion of the electorate is soft. In light of recent OP's the Tymoshenko camp can be reasonably pleased that Yanukovych has not gained momentum and YVT has closed the gap between them to just over 10%.

The dilemma facing Yanukovych in the event of his victory is, if PoR are unable to quickly form a new ruling coalition in the current parliament, what will happen if parliament is, by some means, dissolved and fresh parliamentary elections called? Apart from extending the current long period of political instability well into Spring, what would the result of such fresh elections be when the immediate introduction of reform and crisis management programs via parliament is vital?

This weekend's vote suggests that parties led by the second-string presidential candidates, including the current president, would probably secure seats in any newly-elected parliament. Neither of the big two would gain overall command and the traditional destabilising horse-trading would continue. Tymoshenko could even remain PM for some time to come.

Tihipko and Yatsenyuk have much to consider too in their quest for political glittering prizes. They both must be confident that any political groups they lead would enter parliament in early parliamentary elections but would, however, remain lesser partners in any coalition. The youthful and sophisticated Tihipko in particular is a threat to PoR, his recent support has been principally at the expense of Yanukovych in areas where PoR dominate.

Some commentators even say that had Tihipko come in second in the first round presidential vote, Yanukovych would be 'dead meat' in the second round. But Tihipko will be most aware of the recent political trajectory of Yatsenyuk, also a formidable performer - their ratings can swing frightening quickly. Tihipko and Yatsenyuk's backers have made large financial outlays in their presidential campaigns which could all go to waste - and they do not have the party machines or financial hinterland of Ukraine's big two parties, Nasha Ukraina or even of the Socialists or Communists.

So what to do for him and Yatsenyuk? Offer support to YVT in exchange for a high cabinet post? Their endorsement and a subsequent defeat for Tymoshenko in the run-off could be damaging to their careers. Do nothing and just wait for parliamentary elections? By this time their moment may have passed.

For the next three weeks Yanukovych's minders will be sitting tight too, doing their utmost to ensure their man avoids any political banana skins. Yanukovych's core vote should hold and he will pick some votes from the eliminated candidates, as will Tymoshenko. But the wiser PoR people will have much on their minds right now - and Yulia T's team will be desperately working the telephones.

Update: According to one exit poll slightly more than half [about 57 to 43%] of Tihipko's voters would vote for Yanukovych rather than Tymoshenko in next month's presidential run-off. So more for Tihipko to consider.

Over 70% of Yatsenyuk's voters would vote for Tymoshenko according to the poll.

Incidentally, one of the reasons proposed for Tymoshenko's frequently depressed ratings in opinion polls is some Ukrainian male respondents do not feel comfortable openly declaring their support for a woman.

p.s. Tihipko's evenly spread support across all of Ukraine's regions, details of which can be seen on the Central Election Commission's website, is remarkable. [Refer to Rezul'taty holosuvannya - Po kozhnomu kandydatu at my link]. No other politician in Ukraine's history has managed such a feat. The challenge now for him is how to develop his political career on this platform.

p.p.s. A couple of interesting videos from F.T. here

From a small corner

My father-in-law reported yesterday that four large men blocked the way to the place where the voting was held in their village. The reason was ostensibly that there was something wrong with the voting list. They didn’t allow anyone in until after twelve.

It’s an older village and many went early. They would have been turned away by these goons and with the cold and the fact that snow and ice haven’t been cleared all that well meant that they likely didn’t come back.

He thought these goons were Yanukovych people which says a lot I think even though I don’t know how he could know. The significant thing might be that that village was highly pro-Tymoshenko.

It’s a small village and you would wonder why bother with it. But I try never to underestimate the ability of the Ukrainian elite to do stupid things or to allow them to be done (nor the Ukrainian people to accept them, unfortunately.)

We live in a village just outside of Kiev and there were problems with the voting list here too according to the head of the village council. But no one blocked the door and prevented people from coming in. Ours is a much, much large village, though.

I have no idea how it was in other places. I guess it will come out if there were any-- what do they call them here?—political technologies-- that’s it-- used.

I don’t think there were any observers from the EU present though someone else might know. The EU has lost patience with Ukraine and that because of gas. It is understandable, I guess, because of European interests—cold is cold whether its in Europe or Ukraine—and my people being cold is worse than yours being cold, naturally. But you would wish that they might take a more enlightened view of it-- at least I do.

Some analysts that the indefatigable Levko has posted about—thank you—say that there is going to be a lurch toward authoritarianism whether Yanukovych or Tymoshenko is elected. That is unfortunate. In the last part of the election, Yanukovych said that Ukraine needed “the rule of law.” Well, about “the rule of law,” he doesn’t mean what everybody else means. What he means is what Vladimir Putin means by it; order. Yanukovych said recently that Ukraine has paid a high price for free speech. Oh, really? (He also said that he was tired of speaking the rubbish that was Ukrainian, and his Crimean audience laughed in gales.)

I do think it will be more difficult to do what he did earlier though. There are more power centers around than there were before. But again, the ability of the elite in Ukraine to do something stupid should not be underestimated, nor the tendency of the people to accept them, unfortunately. (Though the Orange Revolution was a bright exception to this and creates some hope for the future.)

This all means that Tymoshenko would be better for the country even though it will mean some authoritarianism as well. It will be a softer kind-- a gloved fist with the smell of lilacs?-- perhaps less damaging to the country though that may be naive. This makes her preferable even though she is completely tone death when it comes to economics and to foreign investment.

Why not someone else? You’d think that someone else would show up in Ukrainian politics who would be better. It’s always, always, always the same people.

We thought maybe Yetsinuk would be that candidate, but he’s been a bust. Apparently, he was saddled with the political technologists of the pre-Orange Revolution Yanukovych. They have tried to triangulate between Russia and Europe which has succeeded magnificently in making Yetsinuk look like the old guard; like everybody else. (Though I must say his later commercials were pretty personable. Too late.) His candidacy and campaign have been a spectacular failure. A pity because he was one who spoke with a lot of candor. But Yuschenko spoke that way during the Orange Revolution and then ended up governing like the old guard—except, that is, when it came to elections for which people ought to thank him. I am afraid though that things like that won’t stick.

But, as with anything else, I guess we’ll see.

Red faces for pollsters?

Ukrainian media, e.g. U.P. are now posting the results of 4 exit polls taken during today's first round presidential elections.

Three of the exit polls commisioned by TV companies or TV programmes show Viktor Yanukovych about 10 points ahead of his nearest rival Yulia Tymoshenko. The other one, the National Exit Poll, gives Yanukovych about a 4 points lead. [More about the NEP here ]

The NEP claim they are the most trustworthy.

In most countries that I have visited over the years, if you ask a local about the location of a certain place, or for information on transport or local events etc. most people are only too happy to help. In Ukraine, maybe I've been unlucky, maybe it's just me, but the response has often been: "Why do you want to know?" or, "Do you have a smoke?"

My guess is that more voters in Ukraine will be more reluctant to respond at all, or if they do, to respond so as give him the questioner the answer that he is looking for, than in other countries. In other words the above polls should all be treated with caution...just a bit of fun, as they say.

If the three polls mentioned above prove to be inaccurate, this be used by Tymoshenko as evidence to illustrate how her opponent's oligarch supporters, owners of the TV channels, manipulate the mass media in Ukraine.

We will see...somebody is going to finish up with a red face..

Last roll of the dice

Tonight's slightly alarmist address by President Yushchenko to his people, broadcast in all mass media, on his website, in English, here.

Don't know where he found time to make it between packing his suitcases, and flicking through exotic holiday brochures..Ah..just a few more weeks..

Yanukovych presidency best for Ukraine?

There's an interesting piece of speculative commentary entitled 'The matter of Ukraine's Democracy', by Stanislav Byelkovsky, on Ukraine's upcoming presidential election in today's 'UP'

The main points are as follows:

Both Viktor Yanukovych's and Yulia Tymoshenko's attitude to democracy and civil liberties are the same: "Democracy and freedom are good when we are in opposition, but bad when we in power".

However it cannot be said that the consequences for Ukraine will be the same whichever of these two candidates becomes president.

In case of a Tymoshenko victory Byelkovsky proposes the following scenario:

Party of Regions falls apart or ceases to exist in its current form. As a 'quasi-political' structure created by a few big business groups it needs to be in power or have a good chance of acceeding to power quickly. Long spells in opposition are of no concern to them.

Yanukovych's possible successor as the political leader of the South and East parts of the country will not be fundamentally hostile to the Ukrainian authorities. Instead, he will try to find a compromise with Tymoshenko and lead a constructive opposition, possibly in the current Russian manner.

The ruling parliamentary coalition will grow due to the influx of defectors and will be stable. Any new Prime Minister will be totally loyal to Tymoshenko i.e. Tymoshenko will be at the same time a de facto president and head of government. The threat to democracy and freedom are obvious.

In the case of a Yanukovych victory Byelkovych predicts:

Yulia Tymoshenko will not disappear from the political scene. She is a true charismatic leader that can survive regardless of external circumstances.

Yanukovych's success especially, against the background of Yushchenko's departure, will lead to consolidation of lesser political groups around PM Tymoshenko. In the event of a Yanukovych victory the current parliamentary coalition is unlikely to collapse, on the contrary, it may rally. Obviously Tymoshenko will be against any strengthening of constitutional presidential powers. It will be difficult for Yanukovych to call for early parliamentary elections in such circumstances.

As a result President Yanukovych will have limited powers but will act as strong counterweight to the government and their parliamentary majority. In such a scenario democracy and freedom of speech will be preserved.

[Some BYuT , NUNS and Lytvyn bloc deputies might not 'run to matron' but could be enticed to defect to a re-energized PoR VR fraction. However most if not all of the 72 NUNS deputies would not get back into parliament in any fresh elections..same goes for BL..a powerful disincentive.. LEvko]

Byelkovsy concludes that, ironically, five years after the Orange Revolution, the interests of Ukrainian democracy may be best served by a Yanukovych victory.

He also downplays the chances of Ukraine being drawn into some kind of Russian Eurasian project 'that does not exist'. Ukraine, unlike Russia, does not need a tsar to legitimize the kleptocracy of the type that also exists in many third world countries having an abundance of mineral wealth to be plundered. In Ukraine there are no large stocks of such materials to provide an economic base. Under either future president, Ukraine's movement toward EU and NATO will continue.

p.s. FT is going with Yanik too but pities Ukraine that it has come to this..
The FT editorial should had mentioned economic policy in Ukraine is in the hands of the PM and her cabinet, not in the hands of the president.

'Strong president' arriving soon?

In a recent interview in the Austrian daily 'Die Presse', Viktor Yanukovych declares that if he is elected president he will make proposals to parliament to change the Constitution. If they do not confirm the changes, he will call fresh parliamentary elections. He suggests he may call a referendum to ascertain what kind of system of rule the country wants, and says: "In my view, the [current] situation requires a strong president."

Yulia Tymoshenko has similar ideas. The National Radio Company of Ukraine recently ran this:

"In her opinion, it is expedient to make the amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine that would introduce a presidential form of government. Yulia Tymoshenko underscored that only in this way it is possible to put an end to chaos and helplessness in Ukrainian today's politics."

And the man many are predicting to come third in the 17th January presidential elections, Serhiy Tihipko, supports "strong presidential authority" too.

Tihipko could become 'king-maker' after the first round of the presidential elections. Some bloggers have doubts about this, but according to one of the lesser presidential candidates, Inna Bohoslovska, Tihipko has sunk as much money into his election campaign advertising as has Tymoshenko. This is an investment for the future - whether in the PM's chair or the future presidency.

I guess, one way or another, the new president, whoever he[or she] may be, will quite soon have greater levers of power in their hands than the current president.

Incidentally, Bohoslovska also claimed a couple of days ago that Tihipko is in cahoots with Tymoshenko, and that he is "doing everything for a Tymoshenko electoral victory".

There is still a 'what if' question still hanging in the air - What if Yushchenko comes in third? It may be that his OP ratings have been depressed because his supporters are not willing to openly declare their support for him. The same could be said of Tymoshenko's supporters.

If Yushchenko does indeed come in third, what does he do? After years of bitter criticism there's absolutely no chance of him credibly supporting Tymoshenko. But if he openly supports Yanukovych it would be counterproductive and could weaken Yanukovych's position. Tymoshenko and others have repeatedly accused Yu and Ya of working in tandem to prevent her becoming president. However if he announces that he is 'against all', this would, on balance, benefit Yanukovych because the current president's supporters would abstain from voting leaving Yanukovych's first round lead intact. And Yush may even find himself head of the National Bank of Ukraine.. following a Yanik victory...

What does 2010 hold in store for Ukraine?

In a previous blog I mentioned an excellent in-depth analytic article in 'Leviy Bereg' that followed a seminar held jointly by the publication and the Kyiv Horshenin Institute, to predict what 2010 will bring to Ukraine.

The article makes the following conclusions, which I've loosely translated below:

The battle between Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko will continue, not only during the election campaign, but also after it. Interrelations between these two politicians will determine the state of Ukrainian politics for at least a year - this will be not a battle of ideas, platforms or concepts, but rather an interpersonal fight.

Next year the prerequisites for the formation of a wide coalition and for instilling order in the country will be actualized. The only question at the moment is who is to be the moderator of this process - Yanukovych or Tymoshenko. The style of moderation will depend on which of those two becomes President, as well as what diplomatic moves are made, and what the main subject of negotiations will be, but the result will be one and the same, whatever the scenario. A broad parliamentary coalition with a high ability to co-operate with the president would improve conditions for effective realization of presidential authority.

On February 7th 2010, [the date of the final round of the presidential elections] it will not be just the president that is chosen, but also the prime minister. The result of the election will be decided by the extent one or other main candidate can garner the support of the candidate who comes third in the first round.

Everyone understands well the conditionality of any pledges made to any future prime minister because it is not the President that designates the PM. However, it is obvious that the appearance of a 'tandem' would give either of the two presidential candidates numerous electoral benefits. It appears, at the moment, that most desired partner, both for Yanukovych and for Tymoshenko, is Serhiy Tihipko.

Next year will be a year of rotation of elites. Serious processes with disintegration and the regrouping of large party formations will occur inside political parties. Next year will be the year when new political realities will be conceived.

Whoever becomes president, Ukraine will be fated to reboot its relations with the Russian Federation, but it will not be possible to avoid conflicts. From a predominantly humanitarian plane they will be transferred to an economic plane and will not be limited exclusively to questions of the price of gas.

Whoever becomes President in Ukraine, under the pretext of restoration of order, a roll-back to authoritarianism and curbs to freedom of speech in its current form, will unavoidably occur.

It is unlikely next year will become a year of breakthrough in the economic sphere. The economic crisis will not have been overcome, and political processes (including frequent election campaigns) will only contribute to its deepening.

The primary task of the new president will be to obtain an obedient and loyal parliament, and for the duration of the next year we could see a complete neutralization of the system of parliamentarism in Ukraine - the Verkhovna Rada's role gradually reduced to purely nominal functions.

The role of local self-governance will grow - regional elections will become the third stage of the presidential campaign and either they will make it possible for the new president to consolidate victory, or they will lead to weakening of his, or her, position and will create preconditions for the loosening of the foundations of presidential authority. The elected President will not be able to ignore the interests of regional elites and it will have to build new relations with the regions.

p.s. Happy New Year to visitors of this blog! I'll try and post more regularly in the weeks to come!

Tough times ahead for Ukraine's journalists?

The popular 'Shuster Live' TV program, produced by the Savik Shuster Studio company, is broadcast on the the TRK Ukraina channel, which is wholly owned by Rinat Akhmetov's SCM financial-industrial group.

Akhmetov, Ukraine's wealthiest businessman, is a major sponsor of Party of Regions as well being one of this party's parliamentary deputies.

Last January, Akhmetov won an undefended judgment in a London court against the Ukrainian internet news site 'Obozrevatel', and some of its staff for allegedly libellous articles written by journalist Tatyana Chornovil. Chornovil continues exposing the shady manner in which Ukraine's richest oligarchs, including Akhmetov, acquired their huge assets, to this day.

And yet Chornovil, and other leading Ukrainian investigative journalists appear regularly on Shuster's chaotic and unstructured show, hotly debating current political issues with deputies and representatives from all political parties, including those from PoR.

Does this indicate that Akhmetov and his party consider that these journalist cannot damage them politically? Or are they sufficiently confident to 'take their best shots', and 'ride out' any blows landed by them?

During last week's Savik Shuster's show, Viktor Yanukovych was vigorously questioned by Shuster's deputy, Mustafa Nayem, about the highly dubious and irregular manner in which the PoR leader had acquired a huge former state-owned dacha, 'Mezhyhirya'. Yanukovych's replies were brusque, arrogant and rude. In no way did he answer the questions posed. Sadly, the reaction of the audience to this matter, and probably that of large numbers of the electorate, was that of indifference. Perhaps too many are still resigned to the opinion that in Ukraine the 'nachal'stvo', whatever their hue, always steal, that normal rules on accumulation of wealth and property do not apply to them.

Yanukovych's responses on how he would tackle the ever-increasing endemic problem of corruption sounded as convincing as a five year-old's fibs.

It must be dispiriting for journalists to know how little impact is made by their revelations of Ukraine's leaders' systematic abuse of power, and a worry to think of any possible 'pay-back' in the weeks after next month's presidential election ends. Could we be watching their last hurrah?

p.s. A reminder from the past: it's not that many years ago since Ukrainian investigative journalists came to sticky ends. I have blogged on these matters before.

Will Yanik appear on Shuster?

"The leader of the opposition, Party of Regions' Viktor Yanukovych, will appear in the Friday Shuster Live talk show, Anna Herman, widely believed to be Yanukovych speech writer, said Dec. 22."

This after an official statement posted the day before on the TRK Ukraina website, the channel on which the Shuster program is broadcast, expaining that because PM Tymoshenko had the full program to herself last Friday on account of president Yushchenko and leader of the opposition Viktor Yanukovych failing to turn up for that show [see previous blog], then the TV company proposes, in the interest of fair play, the latter two are provided with comparable air time on Shuster's program.

Curiously, at time of posting of this blog - about 24 hours prior to Yanukovych's supposed appearance, there is nothing about this on the Shuster program web page.

Important appearances by leading figures are normally announced well in advance on this site. My guess is Yanik's 'minders' are negotiating hard with the Shuster and his producers, on the format of the program, who will be asking the questions, what questions will be, and so on...and no agreement on these matters has been reached yet...

UPDATE: Yankovych's appearance in tonight's Shuster program entitled 'Priorities for the country' was announced today on the program's website.

Open goal for Tymoshenko to shoot at

Last Friday, PM Yulia Tymoshenko answered questions from journalists and other political analysts for over three hours on the flashy 'Shuster-Live' television programme.

Watch it all here.

President Yushchenko and PoR leader Viktor Yanukovych had been invited to take part but had declined to attend, thus providing Tymoshenko over three hours of almost unchallenged TV prime time - political gold dust in anyone's language - which she took full advantage of in her usual masterful manner.

Most voters receive most information on politicians via television - the most important mass media by far. It could even be said, "If you're no good on TV don't even think about going into politics."

It is unmaginable that the owners of the tv channel on which Shuster's programs are broadcast, major backers of PoR, are not aware of this. Any broadcast by the prime minister attracts a large audience and hence generates large advertising revenues - perhaps one reason why the program was allowed to run without the president and leader of the opposition attending. Most of the questioning was 'soft-ball' and easily dealt with by the PM - some journalists even declaring their investigations had confirmed the PM's allegations that Viktor Yanukovych's Mezhehirya dacha had been dishonestly appropriated - but it did not, however, appear that any of the questions were 'planted'.

Yanukovych has declared recently that because Tymshenko is an artist, and he will not compete, or debate with her on tv.

In an excellent in-depth analytical article in 'Lyeviy Bereg' its authors suggest the 'most optimistic' result for the first round of the January 17th presidential election would be a small lead for Yanukovych over Tymoshenko. [His current lead in current OP's is significant]. According to the article a large lead, say over 8% after the first round of voting could plunge the country into a very nasty campaign - outpouring of 'kompromat', challenges to the result etc. akin to 2004. Could this is the thinking behind 'Ukraina' television's decision to run the Shuster program?

The article presents two scenarios for a possible Yanukovych presidency, and three scenarios for a Tymoshenko presidency; it has nine most interesting conclusions which I may summarise later, time permitting.

Justice for Demjanjuk?

By far the best article I've read on the Demjanjuk 'trial' currently being staged in Germany, from 'Esquire', here

It's a bit long, but stick with it..

"Human justice - frail at best - at worst a hopeless oxymoron."

Uncle Joe - what a guy..

London 'Times' on "Russian textbooks attempt to rewrite history" here.

An hour-long BBC TV documentary on this subject will be viewable, probably from tomorrow, here

Carnage on the roads

Today it was reported that the well-known former Kyiv city mayor, now NUNS deputy, Oleksandr Omelchenko, was last night involved in a fatal driving 'accident' in his Mistubishi Pajero. He knocked down and killed a 48-year old pedestestrian.

The current Kyiv mayor, Leonid Chenovetsky, killed a pedestrian on the same road in 2003. Serious road 'accidents' involving high profile figures occur on a regular, almost weekly basis in Ukraine.

By coincidence I was looking at the World Health Organisation Global Status Report on Road Safety yesterday, comparing Ukraine's awful statistics with those of similar-sized countries in Europe.

In 2007 there were 9921 road traffic fatalities reported in Ukraine, 56% of which were pedestrians. So, over five and half thousand pedestrians were killed on the roads that year in the country.

In the United Kingdom by comparison, 2398 road deaths were reported in 2006, 21% of which were pedestrians, i.e. about 500 pedestrians were killed - 10 times less that in Ukraine, even though it has a larger population and many more vehicles on the road.

But more disturbing are the trends. In the U.K., as in most West European countries, road deaths have been declining for many years. In the last 20 years road deaths in the U.K. and other Western European countries, have halved. In Ukraine road deaths are increasing....

Many more pedestrians will be killed on the roads in Ukraine than will die from swine flu, but there's no political mileage to be gained from tackling this carnage is there?

It's not the jokes...it's the way you tell 'em

This from AFP:

" [When president Putin was] Asked at a news conference [following his meeting with PM Tymoshenko] to comment on Saakashvili's current visit to Kiev, the Russian strongman premier known for his bad boy image and sharp tongue said the Georgian leader and his host, Ukraine's fiercely pro-Western president Viktor Yushchenko, should meet without ties.

"The two presidents would be better off holding a dinner -- if they are to hold it -- without ties. Ties are pricey these days... Well, you understand what I mean," he said, eliciting laughter from officials and journalists.

"Yushchenko's guest will scarf up his tie."

Putin was alluding to the widely-circulated footage in which Saakashvili put a tip of his tie into his mouth and chewed on it as he waited to be interviewed last year.

LEvko says sure, the Saakashvili video clip is funny, but Putin's stuttering George Bush-like delivery of a rather thin 'anyekdot' was so bad it's embarassing to watch.

Every comic knows: "It's not the jokes that are funny...it's the way you tell 'em." It's the second time this week Putin was maybe out of his comfort zone..

The coincidence of the Yushchenko-Saakashvili meeting, and that of the much earlier planned Intergovernmental Ukrainian-Russian economic co-operation commission meeting attended by prime ministers Tymoshenko and Putin, was unfortunate, to say the least, and may even have been deliberately contrived by the two presidents just a few days ago.

The attempt to "pi** on her parade" was an unneccessary diversion for PM Tymoshenko in what would have been difficult talks with Putin in any case.

President and PoR digging country deeper into hole

From the 'FT's' Lex column today:

"Europe is on tenterhooks over whether Russia will shut off gas to Ukraine and leave it shivering in January. If that happens, however, blame will fall on Kiev, not Moscow.

Recession-ravaged Ukraine’s political squabbling and populism has hit fever pitch ahead of presidential elections on January 17. That has led the International Monetary Fund to suspend co-operation and delay a $3.8bn loan payment, due on Sunday. The government had already backed off from commitments to increase long-subsidised domestic gas prices. The final straw was President Viktor Yushchenko signing into law, against IMF [and PM Tymoshenko's ] objections, a parliamentary bill [proposed by PoR] that will raise minimum wages and pensions by 20 per cent – costing 7 per cent of economic output in 2010.

Since Ukraine is reliant on IMF funding to make ends meet, it could struggle to pay its next two monthly gas bills – leading to another winter shut-off. It only just scraped together October’s payment. Yet, for all its bluster, Russia would rather keep the taps open. The Kremlin has belatedly realised the damage to its reputation from shut-offs, and last January’s interruption to European supplies cost state-run Gazprom dearly. Hence Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s exhortation that Brussels extend a loan to Ukraine.

And why meddle in Ukraine’s electoral process this time? Moscow’s bogeyman, Mr Yushchenko, trails badly in the polls. Either frontrunner, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko or Viktor Yanukovich, is more acceptable to Russia.

Ukraine still has $28bn in foreign currency reserves; the central bank will probably allow some to be used to pay for gas. A bigger question is whether it will plug the budgetary gap by printing money. If so, inflation will result; if not, wage arrears beckon. Either option may put pressure on Ukraine’s currency and asset prices. Europe’s gas consumers must hope they do not become collateral damage."

Akhmetov - masterful football tactician

Rinat Akhmetov, owner of Shakhtar Donetsk football club, in a great piece of PR, has offered to buy out all of the tickets for Wednesday's vitally important Ukraine-Greece second leg World cup qualifying match, to be played in Shakhtar's new stadium.

After yesterday's no-score draw in Greece, the result of this one game will decide whether it will be Ukraine or Greece that go to next year's World Cup football finals in South Africa.

The stupidly greedy Ukrainian Football Association has whacked up the prices for the match by so much there is a real possibility that the stadium could be half empty for this 'do or die' game.

If Akhmetov succeeds in his bid, he will put the tickets on sale at normal European club tournament match prices, at a loss of over $1m to his club.

No wonder he is so popular in Donbas. And if Ukraine do win, it will be Akhmetov and his Party of Regions' colleagues that will parade on the pitch before the nation's TV viewers to be reflected in the glory...And good luck to them..

Monday update... The Ukrainian Football Federation has declined Rinat Akhmetov's offer - as a a result the vital World Cup eliminator match may well be poorly attended. No home team likes to play in half-empty stadiums, and it makes no business sense either..

British papers on Holodomor

Two articles about British journalist Gareth Jones's reports on the Ukrainian Holodomor of the '30's, have appeared in the British papers today here and here.

Jones's diaries are currently being exhibited at Cambridge University and a documentary programme is being planned.

Mevedev says Russia-Ukraine probs all Yush's fault

Below is part of an interesting interview with Russian president Dmitry Medvedev from the current English language version of "Der Spiegel"

SPIEGEL:...In accordance with your instructions, there is currently no Russian ambassador in Ukraine, and you are regularly engaged in disputes with Belarus. Why do you constantly try to solve problems with your neighbors with strong-arm tactics?

Medvedev: Are there no problems between EU countries? Germany also has problems with its neighbors. We are therefore no exception.

SPIEGEL: To say that an ambassador will only be sent when another country's president has been toppled -- that's really a pretty unique stance in Europe.

Medvedev: Many things are unique in this world. All of these difficulties have been created by just one man -- the current president of Ukraine. He is guided by anti-Russian ideas, and no compromises can be achieved with him. Everything that he has done over the past four years has been aimed at disrupting bilateral relations. He has breached economic agreements, he tries to rewrite history and he has expelled a number of Russian diplomats from the country. That was an unfriendly act that requires a robust reaction. Presidential elections will soon be held in Ukraine. I sincerely hope that politicians will come to power there who are more pragmatic in their approach to Russia. Then there will be a Russian ambassador in Kiev again.

SPIEGEL: That sounds as if the conflict between Ukraine and Russia could take a dramatic turn.

Medvedev: There is no conflict between our countries. Our peoples are brothers, linked by close relations and solid economic ties. Despite the crisis, we trade goods worth billions of dollars.

SPIEGEL: But are we in for a new round of the annual natural gas war?

Medvedev: A few days ago, Ukraine informed us that it had no funds to pay for our natural gas, despite the fact that, after the conflict in January, we had agreed on the rules of the game and that, if they were in financial difficulties, they would seek loans early enough -- or we would only deliver if Ukraine paid in advance. But there is an election campaign in Kiev, where everyone is trying to politically outsmart everyone else. I wish Ukraine stability and the capacity to act. Then cooperation will be easier for Russia and the EU."

..no man, no problem.” Joseph Stalin

Scoring cheap points

My last blog on president Yushchenko's national address on the flu epidemic has been placed in Taras Kuzio's 'Ukrainska Pravda' Blog - There's has been quite a number of comments, some mentioning the impracticality of the president possibly cancelling last Wednesday's European Champion's League soccer game in Kyiv, even though the WHO had warned the epidemic was quickly spreading to the Kyiv area.

All I can say is that in response to a flu epidemic in Mexico City, which has about 20 million inhabitants, important soccer games and baseball games were played in empty stadiums, or in parts of the country less affected by flu last April, at great cost to the clubs and their owners.

It is not my intention to down-play the effects of the current flu epidemic in Ukraine - several friends of mine and their families have been seriously affected.

Many people will suffer from swine flu even in those countries were large sums of money have been spent to provide adequate supplies of antiviral drugs, vaccines, intensive care facilities, and laboratories to quickly identify new strains of flu virus in patients. In Ukraine, where there are serious shortages in all of these, swine flu is inevitably going to hit hard. And sadly, there is no reason to expect the medical profession in the country to be any less corrupt or uphold ethical standards better than other members of Ukrainian society.

But Ukraine's leading politicians and parties should not use the epidemic for scoring cheap political points against their rivals. Most of the electorate know that no-one would have performed any better that their rivals in this situation.

Send for the men in white coats...

Tonight president Yushchenko made a stutteringly delivered, alarmist, outrageous address to the nation in which he blames PM Tymoshenko, parliamentary leaders, and leaders of the opposition for inactivity when they were supposedly already aware of the flu epidemic taking a grip of the Western parts of the country.

Without providing any medical evidence, he claims that in Ukraine new hybrid strains of flu are beginning to materialise.

In particular, he blames his main political rivals in the presidential campaign of organising large rallies in Kyiv on 24th October, by which time 10 victims had died of flu-like illnesses in the town of Ternopil. [Whether these deaths were due to swine flu, or the seasonal flu, whether the victims had underlying medical conditions, whether they were children or adults, all quite significant in swine flu outbreaks, he does not say.]

Quite scandalously he suggests: "This is directly reminiscent of the Mayday parade in Kyiv [several days] after the [nuclear] accident in Chernobil [when the city had been showered with nuclear material]."

But most worryingly, he declares: "It is necessary to change the system of organisation of state authority in Ukraine...The principal centre of decision-making should be the National Security and Defence Council, [which he heads, naturally]

LEvko's prescription: He should lie down in a quiet room, take some deep breaths, cold towel on his forehead, have a sip of herbal tea..with honey. Or the men in white coats may be coming for him soon too...

Serious US commentators consider the tough measures undertaken by the Ukrainian government to combat the flu outbreak to be excessive, and warn against politicisation of this health problem. 'Der Spiegel' suspects the sudden concern by Ukraine's politicians for the health of its citizens could just be electioneering. And the pesky swine flu virus may be not as tough as first thought...

P.s. The World Health Organisation yesterday reported: "Regions in western Ukraine continue to show the highest rates of acute respiratory illness/influenza-like illness. The level of activity in the Kyiv area is also increasing rapidly."

If the president is so concerned about the spread of flu at mass meetings then why oh why did he not use his powers to postpone or cancel tonight's European Champion's League soccer game in Kyiv? [Doh! Never thought of that!]

The WHO report "strongly recommends early treatment with the antiviral drugs", [which are currently in worryingly short supply in Ukraine], but also says: "Given the potential significance of this outbreak as an early warning signal, WHO commends the government of Ukraine for its transparent reporting and open sharing of samples. WHO continues to recommend no closing of borders and no restrictions on international travel, including to Ukraine. Experience shows that such measures will not stop further spread of the virus."

Authorities will be blamed if flu epidemic worsens

Reports in newspapers from Western Ukrainian, where the current epidemic is most serious, describe the near state of panic gripping the local population. This despite Ukraine's government introducing some of the strictest measures in the world to combat swine flu.

For example, in Lviv all shops in which staff are not wearing face masks will be closed from today; and schools have already closed their doors for three weeks. But discos were still open for Halloween parties.

Both 'Vysokiy Zamok' and 'Lvivska Hazeta's' reporters admit to the shortage of diagnostic laboratories in the area, and to a lack of "technological possiblities to gather samples for analysis". Your blogger thinks that the lack of clearcut evidence as to whether the current flu outbreak is swine flu rather than normal seasonal flu is fuelling anxiety, and shortages of antiviral drugs like Tamiflu, which help alleviate the worst effects of illness, is certainly a worry.

'Lvivska Hazeta', in their article entitled: "Inactivity of the authorities is more frightening that the swine flu virus", is already blaming the authorities.

If the epidemic gets worse then those in power will pay a political price - and the blame game has already begun. It doesn't help that the head of the Lviv oblast health administration, Viktor Kimakovych, is taking a holiday in Egypt at as the crisis mounts..

Swine flu panic

LEvko is astonished at the panic in Ukraine and the way over-the-top reaction from the government and politicians over the swine flu epidemic which has hit the country. There is even talk of the president establishing a state of emergency and possibly postponing the presidential elections.

The United Kingdom has been hit harder than most countries by swine flu - there have been well over one hundred swine flu-related deaths since the start of the current outbreak - but if Ukrainian visitors to this blog read this advice from the BBC, then maybe they will be able to sleep more soundly tonight.

The British National Health Service latest information bulletin on this virus says: "As in other countries, most of the cases reported so far in the UK have been mild. Only a small number have led to serious illness, and these have often been in patients with existing health problems, such as cancer, that already weakened their immune systems.."

American experts paint a broadly similar picture.

Sadly, for an unlucky few, swine flu will mean hospitalisation. And one has to remember that even normal seasonal flu kills over 250,000 people in the world every year.

Ukrainian politicians would do better to take a good look at Ukraine's appalling life expectancy figures. Major causes of premature deaths in the country are the smoking of cigarettes and excessive alcohol consumption. A ban on advertising these products and restricting their availability would help save countless lives, but it won't happen because there's too much money being to made from their sale. Much easier to show "decisive leadership" and determined action over the flu epidemic, and scare the the population out of its wits - no doubt increasing the sales of cure-all vodka even more...

p.s. I 'phoned the official goverment swine flu information hot-line today...all I got was crackling..

Foreign Minister Poroshenko on NATO

Russian 'Kommersant' newspaper includes an interview with Ukraine's new foreign minister, Petro Poroshenko, following his recent meeting with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov. This is the first such visit by a Ukrainian minister for one and a half years and indicatesa rewarming of Ukrainian-Russian relations.

A couple of days ago the newspaper claimed that "Sergei Lavrov received Petro Poroshenko as if there was no 'anti-Russian policy' in Ukraine"

Today's piece is entitled: "Let's dispel the myth that the Ukrainian authorities are striving to drag the country into NATO - The head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine tells 'Kommersant' how he will regulate relations with Moscow."

When asked by 'Kommersant', "Do you consider integration into NATO to be the first priority task of Ukrainian foreign policy?" Poroshenko replies: "The first priority task of Ukraine's foreign policy is to ensure the rights and protection of individual and citizen, society and the state. As for NATO, today the question of Ukraine's membership in that organization has not been posed. At the same time, the strategic goal of Ukraine's accession to the North Atlantic alliance while retaining good neighbourly relations and a strategic partnership with the Russian Federation is determined by the Ukrainian legislation, and specifically by the law, "On the Principles of National Security". As minister, I am obligated to fulfil the goals defined by the Parliament of Ukraine back in 2003. Today, our priority is to take pragmatic steps aimed at ensuring our national interests. It would be foolish to reject the opportunity to interact with the most effective system of collective security. Which, I might add, Russia also understands very well, having a much larger-scale level of interaction with NATO than we do."

He continues: "Let us dispel the myth that all of the Ukrainian authorities are striving to drag Ukraine into NATO despite the will of the people. The first one to initiate the procedure of Euro-Atlantic integration through an all-people's referendum was Viktor Yushchenko. And it is specifically on the basis of the results of the referendum that a decision may be made on joining NATO or any other collective security organization. We do not intend to go anywhere just to anger Russia."

'Minor' presidential candidates put in good performances on TV

Three lesser candidates standing for president in next January's election appeared in an interesting and lengthy 'Shuster Live' TV program last Friday. Representatives and spokesmen from the main condenders' political parties also took part. [You can watch it via the above link.]

The candidates were Anatoliy Hrytsenko, a former minister of defence in both Yanukovych's and Tymoshenko's government; Inna Bohoslovska, who ran her own party a while, was a member of PoR for a couple of years, then quit Regiony to run as an independent candidate earlier this year; and Oleh Tyahnybok, leader of the right-wing 'Freedom' party.

PoR send two of their top mouthpieces - attack dog Nestor Shufrich and Oleksandr Efremov, whilst BYuT sent their deputy Oleh Lyashko. Former president Leonid Kravchuk, whilst not strictly a BYuT party member, spoke in support of 'she who works'.

A couple of political experts pointed out that it was important to remember that the president, according to the consititution, is not primarily responsible for the economy, even though in the coming campaign the current economic crisis this will completely overshadow all other matters.

In LEvko's opinion, the three 'minor' candidates performed most competently with creditable seriousness and eloquence, presenting policies and ideas, whilst the others were more concerned in mutual mud-slinging. Hrytsenko's performance in particular, was impressive and was appreciated by the audience.

At the end of the program the studio audience, which Shuster made great pains to point out was a true cross-section of Ukraine's adult population, were asked: "Which one of the speakers was the most convincing". Top came Hrytsenko - 37%. Second came Tyahnybok - 30%. Bohoslovska 14%. The PoR representatives, perhaps the best they've got, scored 11%

None of the three candidates mentioned have financial resources and backing to match the main candidates, which is a shame. Hrytsenko in particular would give any other candidate a run for their money in any TV debate. I would not be surprised if he came in a creditable third in January, even though he would make an excellent president.

After this show, PoR will have to do some serious thinking about their presentational policy for Yanukovych's campaign. Even though he is favourite, they cannot keep their man wrapped in cotton wool for the entire period. And they may rue the loss of Bohoslovska.

p.s. There may well be more dirty allegations soon. Well known journalist Sonya Koshkina makes mention, in a piece in 'Lyevyi Byeryeg', of shall we say, unnatural and illegal behaviour of a sexual nature, by 'Yanik' during his second prison stretch in the early '70's. The rumblings around this may have caused PoR to 'get their retaliation in first' with 'paedo' allegations against BYuT deputies...

Who knows where the truth lies? Maybe the electorate of sick of the dirt - hence the possibly growing support for the minor presidential candidates.

In another article by the same journalist, entitled 'The recidivist candidate', describing Yanukovych's party nomination conference, the first [untitled] photograph in the article shows the above-mentioned Nestor Shufrich embracing a rather sinster-looking character. This can't be PoR deputy Elbrus Tedeyev, whose brother was allegedly involved in a wild-west-style shoot-out between two criminal gangs in a Kyiv park recently, can it?

After the shooting, several participants were allegedly seen driving away in Elbrus's officially registered Merc 500. But it couldn't possibly be him - 'cos he's also a pal of fellow PoR-deputy, Yanik-junior..

Presumption of innocence - what's that?

President Yushchenko today blundered into the political fray surrounding a major sex abuse scandal in which three BYuT parliamentary deputies are allegedly implicated. The deputies have been questioned but, until now, have not had to face any charges.

At a public meeting where the Prosecutor-General Oleksandr Ivanovych Medvedko was also present, the president addressed the P.G. directly:

"Recall this scandal, which today is taking place in Ukrainian society, when in the highest levels of government we have, excuse me, paedophiles, people who bring colossal harm to our morals..But, unfortunately, today they have [are protected by] a [parliamentary] mandate."

"I think that the [same] fate [as that] of Lozinsky awaits them The same political shelter, and after a few weeks we will be hunting them via Interpol, Oleksandr Ivanovych."

[Viktor Lozinsky was a BYuT parliamentary deputy. He is the prime suspect in a murder case and is now on the run. He has been stripped of his seat in parliament.]

"And so we are playing a game, which Oleksandr Ivanovych, will end the same way as with Lozinsky, who was released, who was protected by a political force. Now [we have] episode two - with paedophiles," added Yushchenko.

The president's highly prejudicial, almost Stalinist comments are astonishing, particularly to a western observer, and can only be seen as a most crude attempt to discredit the political force of one of his main rivals in next January's presidential election. Furthermore, if no charges are brought against the three BYuT deputies, or if they have sound alibis, it will be the president who be accused of co-instigating very dirty political games. Hints of this are already being aired.

Opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych's statements on this affair have been more measured. "My attitude to this question [i.e. the scandal] is extremely negative. If this fact took place, [if it] is confirmed, I don't even know what to call it."

"Only bad words keep coming back [to me] - I would rip off that place which you do not have," he added when answering a female journalist's question.

[He may have had previous experience of such procedures. On the Melnychenko tapes, secretly recorded several years ago, Yanukovych is heard to promise to "..hang up by his balls for a night" Oleksandr Tupytskiy, a judge in the Donetsk region.]

'Segodnya', in a fair-minded article, today informed its readers that minister of the interior, Yuriy Lutsenko, told journalists that his ministry have opened a criminal case concerning the alleged $2m blackmail of one of the BYuT deputies accused of child molestation.

Lutsenko claimed in parliament a couple of days ago that he had a PDA recording of the child victims' lawyer attempting to blackmail one of BYuT deputies concerned.

p.s. Dmytro Polyukhovych, the central figure and in this nasty business and father of the two victims, was detained two months ago and remains in custody.

Ukrainian way of doing business

Today's London 'Times' reports:

"Tony Blair, the favourite to become Europe’s first president, is believed to have accepted tens of thousands of pounds from a steel billionaire [Viktor Pinchuk, no less] campaigning for Ukraine to join the European Union. "

As for Viktor P - no such thing as bad publicity..

Ukraine not wanted in EU

Many core members of the EU share a common currency already - the Euro. Millions of citizens from new member Central and Eastern Europe countries are living and working in Western European countries with full access to job markets, accommodation, schools, medical care and other benefits. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the current global crisis has not turned the tide, and many of these folks are staying put in their newly-chosen countries of residence.

Below is a portion of an article on the proposed European Union Lisbon Treaty from Wednesday's today's London 'Times'. The Treaty is intended to make the EU "more democratic, more transparent, and more efficient", but would also mean forfeit of more national sovereignty by EU member countries - increasing the possibility of the EU becoming a fully fledged federal superstate.

"The original EU was supposed to secure the postwar prosperity of Western Europe and ensure that France and Germany never took up arms against each other again. Until 1989 the European mission was essentially to stay happy, rich and out of harm’s way. The Havels and Lech Walesas changed all that. The two Germanys merged and the eastern longing for acceptance made enlargement a sensible goal.

Now, two decades on, the EU has realised that it is become significantly poorer, less secure along its borders and is probably unhappier than for half a century. For mainland Europeans the fulcrum of the continent has shifted significantly eastwards. On the borderlands there are wobbly dictatorships such as Belarus, blood feuds in the Balkans and, in the popular imagination, hordes of potential immigrants from Ukraine. Berlin and Vienna are little more than a hop, skip and jump from some dirt-poor communities.

Enlargement once seemed to give the EU a moral purpose; now it is seen as trouble. The moral purpose has been lost in a tangle of treaty-prose. How does it deal with this? It should be quarrying out a new sense of purpose. Instead it has cobbled together a treaty of which the deepest purpose is to find institutionally acceptable ways to block the entry of Turkey or Ukraine."

Classic disinformation

Just over two weeks ago a story emerged supposedly casting doubt on president Yushchenko's 2004 poisoning.

On September 18th 'Segodnya' ran a sensational article entitled: "Prosecutor General of Ukraine Report: Dioxin was sprinkled [into the food] of Yushchenko by Americans", with a sub-heading: Head of Prosecutor General's office revealed poisoning of Yushchenko was falsified"

"Russia Today" picked it up and embellished it in their own article entitled: "Ukrainian president’s poisoning was falsified".

At the story's core is an audio recording whose existence was revealed by Larisa Cherednichenko, head of the department for supervision of investigations into criminal cases of the Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office.

"RT", in their piece state: "..Cherednichenko mentioned a recording of a phone conversation between two people who called each other Roman and Marta. Speaking in English and occasionally using some Ukrainian words, those two were discussing the delivery of Yushchenko’s blood samples to the U.S. and then to Austria.

She claimed the name “Marta” was a pseudonym and the poisoning was nothing but an operation planned and performed by Ukrainian and foreign special services.

The General Prosecutor’s office representative refused to name who was really hiding behind the “Marta” nickname. However, the gossip that appeared on the Internet shortly afterwards is that it was Kateryna Yushchenko."

Today an 'Ukrainska Pravda' article by Serhiy Leshchenko [who Yushchenko once called a hit-man or killer, following one of his U.P. stories - so 'no friend of the president he'] contains a transcript of the conversation, mainly in English, between "Roman" and "Marta".

It turns out that "Roman" is Roman Zvarych - a US-born former Ukrainian cabinet minister and close friend of Yushchenko, and "Marta" is Marta Lopatynska, his sister-in-law, an opthalmologist from New Jersey. The readers of this blog can read the transcript from the 'U.P.' link and decide for themselves whether there is any evidence of conspiracy in the conversation, or whether it is part of a disinformation campaign to discredit Yushchenko and his allies. Zvarych claims that the conversation is an appeal to his sister-in-law to find toxicology experts in the U.S. who could identify the poisons in Yushchenko's body, and help the-then presidential candidate overcome their effects.

The involvement of U.S. doctors and other specialists helping treat Yushchenko at that time was widely reported, as in the 'Washington Post' article.

Leshchenko reveals at the end of his article that the prime suspect in Yushchenko's poisoning, Volodymyr Satsyuk - then deputy head of Ukraine's security services [SBU], took with him his whole audio file archive when he fled to Russia, where he remains to this day. It was he who gave the "Roman-Marta" recording to the Ukrainian Parliamentary Committee investigating Yushchenko's poisoning. And it was they and Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office that have deliberately organised this disinformation, colluding with the prime suspect in the case to deliberately 'muddy the waters' and take the heat off Satsyuk.

Just how low can you get?

"disinformation - 1955, from Rus. dezinformatsiya"

"The truth is so precious it must be surrounded by a bodyguard of lies.." Winston Churchill

p.s. On a completely different note, "Andrei Lugovoi, the prime suspect in the murder of Kremlin critic Alexander Litvinenko, has dropped plans to run for mayor in the Russian city of Sochi. Mr Lugovoi said he and his party, the nationalist Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, had decided he should remain an MP in the Russian parliament instead.

British police want to question him about Litvinenko's death by radioactive poisoning in London in November 2006."

What worries Ukes

Results of a recent opinion poll conducted in the Kyiv oblast revealed over 63% of those questioned were most worried about inflation, over 54% worry about low pay and pensions, over 42%were worried about unemployment, and almost 40% were concerned by political instability in the country.

Relations with Russia? Less than 8% were bothered about this. As for entry into the EU and NATO, unity of Eastern and Western parts of the country, or a possible new Constitution - less than 5% have anxieties over each of these.

LEvko's conclusion - the candidate who voters consider to be more likely to improve the Ukrainian economy will become president in next year's presidential election.

Yushchenko packing bags already?

ProUA reports that president Yushchenko has accepted he will no longer be head of state in several months time. He sees no possibility of reanimating his political base, 'Our Ukraine', and the last straw was the cold shoulder he recieved from Joseph Biden and Barack Obama during his recent visit to the USA.

ProUA's sources claim that having received no guarantees of immunity from prosecution from either of the two front-runners in next January's presidential election, Yanukovych or Tymoshenko, president Yushchenko has already started packing his bags.

Several aircraft-loads of his stuff, including his antiques collection, was apparently seen departing from Zhytomyr airport for Canada and later transhipment to the USA - probably to his wife's home town of Chicago.

Shuster show with Tymoshenko hijacked by PoR

I've just spent over two hours watching latest Savik Shuster program, on-line, here.

It's rivetting stuff.

The show was to comprise Yulia Tymoshenko being cross-examined by a battery of eminent journalists. She claimed during the programme that Viktor Yanukovych was to be present as well. Just as the programme opens, three PoR heavyweights - Mykola Azarov, Hanna Herman and Iryna Akimova gate-crash the proceedings, claiming this was 'in the interest of balance'. The PoR trio are seen milling around the studio floor while Tymoshenko is speaking, and two extra chairs are brought into the studio for them, perhaps suggesting that only one of them was to attend. The journos are all clearly pi**ed off by this as it is obvious they where not aware the PoR trio would be there. During the programmeTymoshenko answers hostile questions in her usual passionate manner complete with many diversions, as well as responding challenges from the 3 PoR guys. The whole atmosphere is very tense and the proceedings quite chaotic.

About 2 hours 20 minutes into the programme [which is on a TV channel owned by PoR deputy Rinat Akhmetov] Shuster, who many consider the most respected TV interrogator on Ukrainian television, tries to explain the mix-up about who was to attend the program and who was not.

He says he had been summoned to PoR headquarters earlier in the day, where he had been accused of pro-Tymoshenko bias and was told that PoR representatives had to be present during the programme. He responded that Tymoshenko may well not agree to this. Herman then accuses Shuster, live on air, of concocting a plan whereby the 3 PoR guys would enter unannounced, but he could carry on with the pretence that Tymoshenko would be questioned only by journalists. Shuster repudiates this, denying he was party to any conspiracy, whilst other journalists lay into Herman too for not trusting them to do their job properly in scrutinizing the PM in a fair manner, and for taking from them the opportunity to quiz the PM live on TV, whilst at the same time promoting their own political agenda and electioneering.

The intention of the programme was to give journalists the opportunity of grilling the PM on her handling/mishandling of the economy during the global crisis. PoR considered that the programme would give Tymoshenko the opportunity to promote herself for president, even though the campaign has not yet started.

In the end, it was Tymoshenko and the journalists who emerged with more credit. 'Glavred', in their 'write-up' on the program say her people are happiest about how it all worked out.

PoR have a real problem with Yulka T who is a star performer on TV. As in this particular programme, if she takes on all-comers on her own, answering their questions and challenges, she looks as if she is being unfairly bullied - neutral viewers feel sympathetic to her. She is a master of playing the delicate 'wronged woman'. If she goes one-to-one against anyone in a TV debate, paticularly Yanukovych, [if this were ever to happen], she would probably win hands down. Putting her in front of agressive journalists, who would have given her a hard time, would probably have been best for PoR at this moment in time. But PoR could not be content with this. By highjacking the programme they let Tymoshenko score some easy points and made PoR and Savik Shuster, who had to apologise to the journalists present for submitting to PoR's, in his words, "blackmail", look devious. And they annoyed the journalists big-time too.

British Royal Shakespeare Company play about Holodomor

Listen to a most interesting audio clip broadcast this morning on BBC Radio 4's flagship news programme "Today", about this new play called "The Grain Store", here

"The great famine of 1932 and 1933 in Ukraine, known as the Holodomor, may have killed as many as 10 million people. Some believe that it was a deliberate act of genocide.

BBC Correspondent Nick Higham reports on the Royal Shakespeare Company's world premiere of a play about the famine, written by a Ukrainian writer."

Much more fascinating information about the play, at the RSC site here and here

Russia's time running out in Ukraine? Or maybe not..

Paul Goble has written a good summary in his blog of a recent important article published in 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya', by Volodymyr Horbulin [who was a National Security and Defence Council secretary under president Kuchma] and Oleksandr Lytvynenko, about the security trap in which both the Russian Federation and Ukraine find themselves. Paul Goble's summary can also be read here.

'Segodnya' yesterday published a riposte to the article by Horbulin entitled "Friendship between Obama and Moscow: the Ukrainian Atlanticist's nightmare"

The author argues that an improvement in relations between Russia, Europe and the USA will make it easier for Ukrainian politicians to maintain equally good relations both with Russia and with the West.

He concludes: "[The] ideal economic situation for Ukraine [would be] to establish a free trade zone with the European Union and to preserve and widen free trade with Russia. To obtain investments both from the Russian Federation and from the West. To agree with Russia on an acceptable price for fuel, and with the West about the technological modernization of our industry and infrastructure. If such a most advantageous multi-vector policy seemed unrealistic in the past because of the complex relations between the West and Russia, then now, as a result the significant warming up of relations in the Moscow- European Union -USA triangle, it is fully possible. The main thing is that these large geopolitical comrades do not fall out between themselves again."

Medvedev's CNN interview

Below is part of the transcript of today's interview with president Medvedvev on CNN.

See video here

"F.Zakariya: Talking about Ukraine, when you say they should hold a referendum there, we should note that Ukraine is a sovereign state, and it’s free to enter any alliance it wants. There is no constitutional requirement for Ukraine to hold a referendum. Even though many believe that Russia is not satisfied with Ukraine being independent, as it believes Ukraine is still part of Russia to a large extent, that it cannot put up with the fact that it has lost Ukraine. In any case, we believe Ukraine has the opportunity to join any alliance; and according to the Constitution, it doesn’t need our direction on whether to do it or not.

D.Medvedev: You’re right. The question is that I am not making any recommendations to Ukraine; I just believe that Ukrainian politicians should think about it. I am not an expert on Ukrainian legislation. But we are talking about entering nothing else but a military bloc; and we had all been within one military bloc called the Warsaw Pact, which used to be NATO’s direct opponent. So if I was to make such a decision, I believe I would have to consult with the population on such issues. This is certainly their sovereign right; but as far as I know, a significant number of politicians hold the same position as me: that a referendum is required before acceding into NATO. The fact that the current Ukrainian president doesn’t think so is his own business. This is what I believe we should remember.

Regarding our attitude towards Ukraine, it’s a hearty and friendly one. We all have relatives and friends in Ukraine, and we have a need to communicate. Ukraine has been going its own way; it’s an independent state now, so let it develop itself. Ukraine has been experiencing economic difficulties and their own national problems; so let our colleagues deal with them.

What is it that I dislike? It’s something I had talked about in my recent address and in my letter to President Yushchenko. There is only one thing I dislike: that the anti-Russian position has become the main policy of the current leadership, meaning the country’s president, my colleague. Whatever they say, I am absolutely convinced this is their key policy. It’s a shame, and it’s wrong. Our nations have been so closely tied together that anyone who tries forcing a wedge between our two nations would be making a mistake, if not a crime, for the sake of future generations. So my address had only one meaning: to make Ukrainian politicians – and their president first of all – start to think about their policy. I really don’t like it that Ukraine has been heroising Nazi criminals, so to speak. [As a lawyer, Medvedev would certainly be aware he was deliberately making an erroneous sweeping generalisation here..LEvko] We had all actually fought against Nazism at some point. Other countries understand it, but the Ukrainian leaders are not willing to realise it for some reason. I have the right to make such assessments, as this is a common challenge, a common threat. Nazi criminals used to be judged by the Nuremberg tribunal.

So there are things that are truly crucial for the future of our relationships. We are not forcing anything on anyone; we are not addressing anyone. I’ve particularly emphasised that I wasn’t even appealing to the Ukrainian nation, because this nation has its own leadership. But as this country’s leader, I have to express my standing to my colleague. Considering everything that had been – and still has been happening there – I had to make an unpleasant decision and to delay sending a new ambassador to Ukraine, so that our Ukrainian colleagues would actually think about the consequences of such a policy."

In three of four months time president Yushchenko will be out of office, clearing his desk and packing a furniture removal truck. So why so hostile? Today was Medvedev's 44th birthday. Maybe he just didn't like the birthday prezzie from his Ukrainian counterpart...

'Segodnya's' "take" on this is: "Head of the Russian Federation has again criticized our president over [his] anti-Russian policies"

Another presidential junket

President Yushchenko returned home empty-handed from a state visit to Turmenistan today.

He was accompanied by two airplane loads of officials, musicians [!?], and other personnel. A meagre four inter-government documents only were signed during the president's visit.

But I'd bet they almost cleared out the Ashkhabad duty-free shop before the flight back home..

Poisoners in Russia, claims Yushchenko

The last edition of the "Sunday Times" informs its readers that "President [Yushchenko] claims Kremlin is shielding his would-be killers"

Good job it was dioxin and not polonium..

Ukrainian intellectuals warn of Russian threat

Several days ago the big-selling 'Segodnya' ran this story on "Ukrainian intellectuals'" appeal to the world to save Ukraine from Russia. I've translated some portions below:

They call on the USA, Great Britain, France and China, the guarantors of the Budapest memorandum, to take part in an International conference in order to provide security guarantees for Ukraine.

The members of the intelligentsia have also appealed to leading organs in the European Union "on the need for a clear and unambiguous position on the question of the guarantee of the national sovereignty of Ukraine, and to express a warning against any form of interference by Russia into the internal affairs of Ukraine".

The members of the intelligentsia note: "The Russian leadership have consciously taken a course on the dismantling of the current security system, the key direction of which has become the aim of subordinating Ukraine in order to fulfill the geo-strategic interests of Russia".

According to their appeal, "the consequence of such a strategy is the rapid escalation of stress in bilateral relations. Unprecedented aggravation has taken the form of information warfare against Ukraine".

"In Russian society Ukrainians are presented as the enemy, and Ukraine is labelled as the main destabiliser of relations between the European Union and Russia," they add.

Commenting on the President of Russia's recent message to the President of Ukraine and the new Russian legislation on the use of the Russian armed forces beyond the limits Russian Federation, the intellectuals claim:

"For the first time in many years signs are appearing that the Kremlin is not excluding use of power in its arsenal of foreign policy tools relative to Ukraine".

"The subordination of Ukraine to Russia's strategy will renew the division of Europe, will carry a direct threat to the international and national security of the European Union, will lead to a decrease in the overall level of confidence and security in Europe, and will escalate tension and resistance in foreign relations as a whole", warn the signatories. They include former President Leonid Kravchuk, former top man at the Kyiv Mohyla Academy, Vyacheslav Bryukhovetskiy, who is now working for Rinat Akmetov's Foundation for the Development of Ukraine, former ambassador to Great Britain, Serhiy Komisarenko, Levko Lukyanenko, and many others.

Full text here

BBC radio report on Donbass Arena opening ceremony

Listen to a 5-minute BBC Radio 4 "From Our Own Correspondent report, broadcast on Saturday 5th September 2009, on last weekend's opening ceremony at the new Schaktar Donetsk Arena here. The report starts about 7 minutes into the 30 minute-long audio clip.

Also worth watching is Shaktar's official video of the event here

Con artists all..

British PM Gordon Brown is not the only major world figure doing dubious and disreputable deals with Libyan supremo colonel Gaddafi. At the 40th anniversary celebrations of the coup that brought Gaddafi to power, Ukraine's Prime Minister, Yulia Tymoshenko was amongst the first foreign leaders to greet him.

According to the 'Independent' newspaper : "Prim and pretty with her braided hair, she seemed like a girl receiving a school prize. Her presence was among the more obvious clues as to why the rest of the world puts up with Ronald Reagan's "mad dog" of the Middle East. At least one half of the Ukrainian political establishment is desperate to break clear of its energy dependency on Russia and the political limitations that come with that."

Don't be fooled by the looks - Tymoshenko has had experience in the past of dealing with autocratic and 'loopy' leaders of oil and gas-rich countries to secure beneficial deals for her own [former] companies and for Ukrainian consumers.

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I also particularly liked this story from today's 'Independent' about a 17-year-old graffiti artist who stole several pencils that formed part of a sculpture by one of Viktor Pinchuk's favourite artists, Damien Hirst. [Pinchuk's gallery in Kyiv is currently staging a major retrospective Hirst exhibition].

The teenager was arrested by British police and released on bail - he is waiting to find whether he will be formally charged with causing damage to an iconic artwork worth, wait for it, £10m! The pencils were valued at £1/2 million. [They were, apparently, in 'as-new' condition, but it is not clear whether they were the sort that have an eraser rubber at the upper end.]

'Philantropist' Pinchuk, who made his money in no small part thanks to to his father-in-law, former Ukrainian president Kuchma, has been spending millions on what some commentators regard as "not masterpieces..[but] the icons of idiocy".

Now however, the contemporary art market is in meltdown and prices are plummetting. Still, easy come - easy go I suppose.

p.s. It's an inspiration to know that the British police and legal system are ruthlessly pursuing these adolescent thieves and vandals who have no respect for art..

Kremlin further out of step

Listen to a concise 5 minute audio clip from the 'Guardian's' Luke Harding explaining yesterday's events in Gdansk and the new Kremlin doctrine directed at its neighbours, here

And read his article on some dubious documents on Poland's supposed dealings with Hitler produced in Moscow yesterday, here

Poland - supporting Ukrainian nationalists in the 30's? I don't think so..

Poland is start of long, uncomfortable season for Russia

Amongst the many articles on the commemoration to mark the 70th anniversary of the start of WW2 in Gdansk today, I particularly liked one entitled "We must not forget the real causes of the war", by the acclaimed British historian Norman Davies.

"As the Russian government must realise, however, Poland will only be the start of a long, uncomfortable season. After Poland, it will be Finland's turn, and the 70th anniversary of the Winter War. Stalin's aggression against Finland in November 1939 was every bit as blatant as his actions against Poland. His German partner was not involved, and the despatch of a million troops into a neighbouring country to deport the entire population of the frontier area can hardly be described as the doings of a neutral well-wisher. It led to the expulsion of the USSR from the League of Nations. And after Finland, there will be Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Romania. At every stage, there will be scenes of peace-loving tanks, of executions and deportations, and of weeping patriots..."

Hence the current propaganda war orchestrated by the Kremlin?

p.s. PM Tymoshenko has spent a few interesting few days lately. Over the weekend she was in Donetsk for the opening of Shakhtar's new stadium and was warmly embraced by Rinat Akhmetov, while Beyonce Knowles was singing on stage. Today she met Vladimir Putin in Gdansk, and flew off to Libya for Colonel Muammar Gaddafi's bash.