EU's patience nearly running out...

Sonya Koshkina,in her latest Lb.ua piece, entitled 'Strict regime holiday' makes some interesting points in the drawn out, 'will they, won't they release Tymoshenko' saga. Here are some of them:

There is ever-mounting evidence that Yanukovych is employing blatant stalling tactics in regard to her release, calling into question the sincerity of his desire to move Ukraine in a westward direction. [Constant raised hopes, 'false dawns' and repeated tales of imminent release may be part of these tactics.]

Other members of the Customs Union, Belarus and Kazakhstan are going distinctly 'wobbly' on the Russians. This may explain the desperate measures to which Putin and his people are resorting, in an attempt to bully, and lately possibly to woo Ukraine back into Russia's sphere of influence.

Koshkina outlines one scheme allegedly being prepared by Yanukovych's team:

Tymoshenko is due to appear in  UESU case hearings in a Kharkiv court in  on October 25th. The prosecutors or possibly the penitentiary service may appeal to the hearing judge with a request  to let Tymoshenko go abroad for treatment for a limited period, e.g. six months on the grounds of ill health, and then return to complete her sentence and face outstanding charges. The judge will naturally agree to this...But will Tymoshenko? If she does not, then it will be her who will be accused of having caused any possible failure to get the AA deal sealed in Vilnius in November. If no deal is concluded then, according to Koshkina it will be 'strict regime holidays' for the whole country [not just for YVT.]

Your bloggers view? It has long been apparent that Yanukovych has not been negotiating with the EU in good faith, despite appeals from every quarter of the globe, from many authorities, leading politicians etc.

Some European figures are already talking in terms of a pessimistic scenario. E.g.  Vice-President of the European People's Party, Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, says: "There is no time now, and Ukraine's chances of signing the Association Agreement in November at the Eastern Partnership  summit in Vilnius is decreasing rapidly. Ukraine must immediately demonstrate real progress. If it does not do this, then the EU will not sign an agreement solely on the basis of pure rhetoric."

Seasoned German Euro-deputy, Rebecca  Harms comments: "Stubbornness in this dispute is blocking [progress for] the whole of Ukraine. I frequently ask myself why such irrationality is present on this issue? I first encountered this in examples of political conflicts in Eastern Europe". Politicians in Berlin and Brussels say that the dragging matters out until the last moment is very risky for Kyiv. 28 EU member states and the European Parliament should vote in support of the Association Agreement . This process can take years. Therefore, according to Rebecca Harms, Ukrainian government should not be taking such risks. [Source]

Others are humiliatingly dreaming up ever-more convoluted and proposterous schemes to enable Yanukovych to save face. The latest - the president gives her a 'partial pardon', [like a partial pregnancy?] as long as she pays a $200million fine and accepts that she cannot stand for president for three years...

It has been generally accepted by western leaders that Tymoshenko's gas trial was a travesty of justice, and that she is a victim of selective justice..so why should she pay any fine? And what if the European Court of Human Rights rule in her favour again in the coming months and declares her human rights were abused during this trial? Will she get a refund?

Is Yanukovych stringing the Europeans along all these months in order to eventually get a better deal with Putin? This arrangement could eventually mean the end of messy elections with pesky observers, if it becomes a necessity. The overarching aim of this man is to copy other CIS leaders and remain in power; eventually enabling his son Oleksandr, whose business structures are already close to those of Putin's, to take over at the helm some point in the future...

The cat-and-mouse game over Tymoshenko, the bluffing and counter-bluffing, is a good indicator what EU - Ukraine relationship will look like in the future if the current Ukrainian leadership remain in place, irrespective whether theAA and DCFTA is signed or not. It's time to ditch the whole deal - not just kick the can down the road, but kick it into the long grass....[bad case of mixed metaphors..sorry]

Another fine mess

Deadlines have now been set by the Europeans for Tymoshenko's release, which have to met by Ukraine if the EU/Ukraine Association Agreement and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements are to be successfully clinched.

However, it becoming clear that president Yanukovych will not pardon Yulia Tymoshenko under any circumstances; it would be too much of a climb-down for him to bear. Some other mechanism for her release to Germany needs to be found.

Yanukovych is pressing the Ukrainian parliament to pass a law enabling prisoners, like YVT, to obtain treatment abroad. But is this realistic? [I foresee weekly convoys of ambulances shuttling well-heeled Ukrainian prisoners to Germany and Austria for 'treatment abroad'...]

If  Tymoshenko does land up in Germany by means of some other political contortion, the following scenario is quite possible:

The European Court of Human Rights rules Tymoshenko's human rights were abused at her gas trial two years ago, and the verdict declared unsafe, i.e. the trial was fixed....

Armed with the ECHR ruling, showing no fear, she returns back to Ukraine to get the gas case verdict annulled and so clear her name, as she has vowed to do.

If the two further criminal cases involving fraud at UESU, and conspiracy to murder the Shcherban's proceed, she calls Yanukovych's bluff and faces these charges. Because Ukraine, by this time will have signed an Association Agreement, these trials have to be seen to be scrupulously conducted in the full glare of the world's press. Her defence will certainly use every opportunity to discredit Yanukovych and the prosecutors. Any Shcherban trial would be an opportunity to bring up lots of dirt on the 'Donetski'..And if these trials are improperly conducted she will, in any case, challenge any verdict back in the UCHR..

All this would be going on during the 2015 presidential election campaign..So not a happy scenario for Yanukovych to face, particularly bearing in mind his current low ratings in opinion polls.

It cannot be ruled out, therefore, that Yanukovych may be considering hanging onto Tymoshenko and just hoping the Europeans are bluffing when they say "no Tymoshenko - no AA"...And if it falls through...well, 'It will be all the fault of Tymoshenko, the opposition and the Germans'.

p.s. The 'heroes who 'cocked up' and made such a dreadful mess of the gas trial two years ago, instead of being bull-whipped, have all received career-enhancing promotions and awards...

p.p.s. In a TVi.ua straw poll the website's readers were asked: 'When will Yanukovych free Tymoshenko?

Just over one half said 'never'.
About one quarter said October 14, on the feast of 'Pokrova'..

Note: Pokrova, Protecting Veil of the Virgin Mary, is celebrated on October 14; it is the Feast of the Patronage (Protection or Intercession) of the Most Holy Mother of God.

The Virgin Mary has always been regarded in Ukraine as a protectress, a mediator between man and God, and people turned to Her with their prayers, thanking Her for intercession or seeking her help.
Even at the time when soviet atheism was at its most virulent and any form of public manifestation of religious feeling was either suppressed or restricted, the feasts dedicated to the Virgin Mary were clandestinely celebrated, particularly in the countryside. A special, festive meal was a natural part of the celebrations.

Yanukovych marked for life

Lots of speculation in the German media that when their foreign minister, Guido Westerwelle returns home from his current visit to Kyiv on Friday, he may be taking back Yulia Tymoshenko with him , as passenger on his plane.

Other top Euro-deputies are 'cautiously optimistic' too.

But Ukrainian foreign minister Kozhara plays down hopes and keeps repeating the threadbare mantra - 'the Tymoshenko problem' can only be resolved within a constitutional and legal framework . [Kozhara claims that "millions of people in Ukraine believe Tymoshenko committed a crime". Well millions believe she was 'stitched up' too, most Ukrainians consider judges and police to be completely corrupt... and think Yanukovych and Kozhara are wankers ...so what?]

But whatever happens, Yanukovych has already been branded forever for persecuting his greatest political rival. If the Vilnius summit ends in failure, he will get the blame.

Serhiy Vysotsky, in Liga.net thinks Yanukovych may be being steered by the formula: Free Tymoshenko, sign Agreement, receive lots of foreign loans...

If Tymoshenko is released and the AA and DCFTA agreements are successfully signed, any loans will be drip-fed piecemeal, in stages. Pressure on Yanukovych to behave according to European standards will be maintained until the 2015 presidential elections and beyond.

Even from abroad, Tymoshenko will continue to be an active political player.

Vysotsky concludes: Some mistakes in politics are impossible to correct - they stick to you for the rest of your life. The chances of Yanukovych  cleansing his reputation in the West are slim. Trading political hostages, once the ransom has been received, can only work once. After this, such a politician will always be perceived as small-time wheeler-dealer, not as an equal partner. Tymoshenko is a problem that will remain with Yanukovych forever, regardless of the model of external integration eventually selected.

p.s. Several months after Viktor Yushchenko became president, Adrian Karatnycky published a large piece in the 'NYT' entitled: "Ukraine's Orange Revolution"

It contained the following passage:

"According to the telephone intercepts, the [2004 presidential election] fraud involved some of the country's highest officials. In addition to Medvedchuk and Kivalov, the conspiracy included Eduard Prutnik, a key aide to Yanukovich, Serhiy Lyovochkin, the president's first assistant, and Serhiy Klyuyev, a major fundraiser for the Yanukovich campaign whose brother was the deputy prime minister responsible for Ukraine's lucrative energy sector."

Transcripts of telephone conversations exposing the skulduggery between  the head of President Leonid Kuchma's staff, Viktor Medvedchuk, and Yuri Levenets, [a Yanukovich campaign director and notable spin doctor], were also included in the NYT article.

Well, several days ago Levenets, known as the "patriarch of Ukrainian polit-technologists", passed away.

He worked many times for Yanukovych during various election campaigns. However, in 2010 he assisted Yulia Tymoshenko's team. In recent years he was close to his alleged 'partner in crime', current head of the president's administration, Serhiy Lyovochkin, . And there had been rumours he was recently acting as a consultant to Vitaliy Klychko....

Some overblown Ukrainian political experts enter into a world of fantasy and claim Levenets was "a super-powerful intellect, who appear once every hundred - two hundred years." ..

[Had he been charged and sentenced for organising a massive election fraud almost a decade ago this intellect may have useful when trying to escape from jail...]

p.p.s. They all 'piss into the same pot', as they say in my home town....

One week before make-your-mind-up time?

According to Polish Radio:

"The fate of the Ukraine/EU Association Agreement is dependent on the release of Yulia Tymoshenko. An OSW expert believes that Viktor Yanukovych has still not decided whether to release her or not, because Tymoshenko is his most dangerous political opponent."

Deutsche Welle reports the German President, Joachim Gauck, who also attended a meeting in Krakow between the presidents of Ukraine, Italy, Germany and Poland today, called for Tymoshenko to be released. "The central question in the negotiations between the presidents of Ukraine and Germany in Krakow was the release of Yulia Tymoshenko. [Authorities in] Berlin urged Yanukovych not to drag matters out."

A spokesman said for president Gauck the solution of this problem is a barometer of how serious and credible are the efforts of Yanukovych administration in the development of democracy and the rule of law.

Yet at their press briefing following their meeting, neither Yanukovych nor Polish president Komorowski made any reference to the Tymoshenko business at all, to the astonishment of journalists; which seems to confirm the validity of the OSW expert's opinion - Yanukovych has not yet made up his mind.

He must feel these guys are asking him to sign his own political suicide note....

p.s. Yanukovych has a penchant for making big-hearted pronouncements on important days of the Orthodox calendar. E.g. Yuriy Lutsenko was pardoned on the feast of the Annunciation of the Lord [Blahovishchennya].

One Tymoshenko ally predicts that a decision could be announced on October 14. This date is a "two in one": the feast of the Protection of the Blessed Mother of God, [Pokrova] one of the bigger days in the Orthodox calendar, and the eve of the fateful day when Cox and Kwasniewski have to report back to the European parliament's president.

Maybe Yanuk will have a word 'with the Man upstairs' on that day to ask for advice..He cannot complain that the Lord has not been kind to him. Yanukovych's son Aleksandr is now the most successful businessman in the country. His MAKO Holdings has seen a meteoric rise in earnings in 2012 to well over $5Bn. It is now 56th biggest business corporation in Ukraine. Surprised?

Tymoshenko still in the game

So "Jailed Ukrainian opposition leader seeks treatment in Germany; EU mission calls for presidential pardon for her...Yulia Tymoshenko, a former prime minister of Ukraine, today accepted a proposal by a team of European Union mediators seeking to resolve a political deadlock caused by her imprisonment. "[From this report ]

Despite being imprisoned, Yulia Tymoshenko has constantly maintained leverage on how the EU/Ukraine Association and Free Trade Agreements pan out. Whatever the critics say, the agenda has revolved around her current predicament.

Meanwhile Yanukovych at the Yalta Economic Summit last month declared:

"We still have time and we will work according to the plan that we have. We have not said yes or no yet....The answer to this question lies in the domain of finding a compromise with Tymoshenko. The court and Tymoshenko can answer this question.”

Yanukovych was implying that it was Tymoshenko herself that was holding up the process of her release from detention by not co-operating..not admitting her guilt...not requesting a pardon...or not willing to "pay back the money"...whatever.

Now, by requesting for treatment in Germany, [despite all of the other hedges in her statement], she has made the first step. Critically, Cox and Kwasniewki, whose report in a few days time will carry great weight before the Vilnius summit, have personally appealed to Yanukoych to release her for treatment. It Yanukovych rebuffs them the chances of success in Vilnius will be much diminished. Tymoshenko, with Cox and Kwasniewski, have laid out a reasonable algorithm for progress to be made. Tymoshenko has been seen to make a first step sideward, if not backward for the benefit of the country.

But Yanukovych rightly fears that if he lets her go, she will be right back in the game. Now, if he does not budge, it will be he who will receive the brickbats, and will have to shoulder the blame for failure in Vilnius.

Latest opinion polls do not make pleasant reading for the president...Success on the path to Euro-integration would give him a boost, no question...

Below is the prognosis for possible head-to-head second round presidential election clashes:

P.s. On Monday Yanukovych will be Krakow, Poland meeting the presidents of Poland, Germany and Italy. No prize for guessing what the main topic of conversation will be...

Quiet words should not be dismissed...

Just watched a video of an interview with Catherine Ashton, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, which took place several days ago at the Wilson Center, Washington,

An impressive and thoughtful performance...

On application of selective justice and the Tymoshenko issue she said: "We are very concerned about her..it is something Ukraine has to sort out, and we hope it will..." [About 42 minutes into the video]

Sometimes the most significant statements are spoken quietly..almost as a passing remark..

Adviser to president Yanukovych, Hanna Herman, a walking advert for the miracles of cosmetic surgery, [see previous blog] may have revealed Yanukovych's pitch to the EU. Sign the deal in Vilnius in return for a promise to sort out the Tymo prob at a later date... Like many of Ukraine's politicians, her champagne and diamonds lifestyle, I fear has caused her to lose touch with reality years ago..

The contrast between the eloquent, understated Ashton and  'mutton dressed as lamb' Herman is stark...

p.s. Meanwhile, according to some....'90% Chance Ukraine Signs EU Association at November Summit' ? But it will be a 'last minute deal'....More on this, in Russian, here

p.p.s. If Yanukovych is finally cornered and has to release Tymoshenko, it may be Prosecutor General Viktor Pshonka and his No.2 Renat Kuzmin who pay the price...[This organisation does not tolerate failure....

More drivel from Herman

PoR deputy and presidential advisor Hanna Herman, appeared on the 'Svoboda Slova' show yesterday.

In her opinion,"..the Tymoshenko card will be played by opponents of Ukraine to prevent Ukraine's progress forward. Yulia Volodymyrivna, who herself did not wish this, has unwittingly become a mechanism which is being used by enemies of Ukraine in order to prevent Ukraine entering the path of Western development...I believe that having signed the Association [agreement] and having stood firmly on his feet, the Ukrainian president, who is seeking a way out of this situation, will find a way out to alleviate the lot of his opponent. But not under pressure from foreign countries and leaders, not under threat ... no, he will do it from the heights of his mercy, his Christian beliefs and his decency... "

[Herman frequently makes such vaseline-laden statements...E.g. "Yanukovych will become a legend for generations to come, because even in the next hundred years it is hardly likely anyone will be able to repeat what he has managed to do in his life. ]

Herman crazily implied that Ukraine's enemies, knowing what kind of person Tymoshenko was, had somehow engineered the whole scandal in a calculated manner to reduce the country's chances of Euro-integration; Tymoshenko had merely been an 'unwitting tool' in their hands.  [23 minutes into the 'Svoboda Slova' video]

According to Herman all of those at the European Court of Human Rights, the world leaders, European parliament etc. who consider Tymoshenko a victim of crude political persecution by Yanukovych, and are demanding her release are, apparently, enemies playing the 'Tymoshenko card'...

It is as if Tymoshenko herself were merely a bargaining chip. or what Herman herself called a card.. perhaps a deal clincher to be tossed into any EU-Ukraine deal if/when  this becomes an unavoidable requirement.

Even today, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe has passed another resolution demanding Tymoshenko's release. [See document here]

p.s. Was Yanukovych acting from the 'heights of mercy' and in tune with his Christian beliefs and decency when, as a youth he was mugging victims and stealing their earrings and fur hats - crimes for which he spent three and a half years in jail....
or when he threatened to 'steamroll under asphalt' his political opponents..
Or when he is stealing millions for his dreadful, grotesque OTT palaces, barges, hunting lodges, dachas on the Black sea etc.  In a normal country someone with Yanukovych's record would not even get a job as a school janitor..

What drivel from Herman..

What do they want from this woman?

Yulia Tymoshenko has been imprisoned for over two years.

Her trial and conviction were adjudged by many international organizations, such as Danish Helsinki Committee, to have been selective and politically motivated.

 On April 30, 2013 the European Court of Human Rights issued a judgement declaring Ms. Tymoshenko’s pre-trial detention had been arbitrary; the lawfulness of her detention had not been properly reviewed; and, that she had no possibility to seek compensation for her unlawful deprivation of liberty.

On September 5, 2013 the Council of Europe's Committee for the Prevention of Torture and Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment (CPT) published the report upon their December 2012 visit to Ukraine. The report contains the first official proof that physical force has been used against Yulia Tymoshenko during her forced illegal transportation from Kachanivka penal colony to Kharkiv hospital on April 20, 2012. The CPT investigation concluded that Tymoshenko’s rights had been violated on several Articles of the European Convention of Human Rights.

Last year the European Parliament adopted a resolution on Mrs. Tymoshenko deploring the sentencing of the former Prime Minister, and called for the Ukrainian government to release her unconditionally.

Western politicians, ranging from Hillary Clinton, the former US secretary of state, to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, have all called for her release.

The ECHR are currently evaluating whether her human rights were breached during her trial itself. A verdict in her favour, is most likely.

Former President of Poland and co-head of the European Parliament monitoring mission to Ukraine, Aleksander Kwasniewski,  has met Tymoshenko many times over the last months and has stated Tymoshenko is ill and that needs surgery, and given her mistrust of the Ukrainian health service, such treatment should be conducted abroad.

Despite all of this, many serious Ukrainian commentators still consider she should do "the right thing", "confess her sins", ask for forgiveness from her persecutors...as if this will somehow resolve all of the county's ills, permit the signing of the European Union Association Agreement and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with Ukraine, and open the doors to the EU.

Other serious commentators seem to imagine these agreements will be signed, even if she continues to be detained and that closer ties with the EU will be the main plank of Yanukovych's 2015 presidential re-election platform.

Before her trial and subsequent arrest Tymoshenko was advised by intermediaries to flee the country...she knew what to expect having spent several weeks in prison during Kuchma's presidency, but despite this, did not run. [Unlike Yanukovych and his pals who after the Orange Revolution Yanukovych ran like rats and disappeared for many months...]

What do they want from this woman?

Several years ago I saw, on Polish television, a public service advert for a society for the prevention of cruelty to children. It showed a wimpering little girl with a bruised and bloody face cowering in the corner of a room. A nasty-looking woman, probably her mother, stands over her and scowls: "It is all your fault...you see to what you have driven me to..."

ps. The main reason Yanukovych has turned westward is because Ukraine is paying far too much for gas, despite the Kharkiv Accords negotiated by Yanukovych. In this sense both he and Tymoshenko have been shafted by Putin over the price of gas. Yet he is still in his palace, and she is behind bars.

Will Kharkiv Accords be denounced?

Yanukovych realised long ago he was 'shafted' by Putin when he signed the Kharkiv Accords - the 2010 Ukrainian–Russian Naval Base for Natural Gas discount treaty. Ukraine continues to pay an exorbitant price for Russian gas.

There is now fresh speculation that if the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement is signed in Vilnius in November, the Kharkiv Accords could be denounced soon after, and I imagine, an new gas deal negotiated.

Much political capital would be accrued by Yanukovych by such a move.

One writer suggests that during his current brief stay at the UN, support will be offered to the president by the EU and USA on this issue.

Many 'brownie points would be gained by Yanukovych by such a riposte to Russia, but even if this story is true, the AA deal is clinched and Kharkiv accords scrapped, the Tymoshenko issue will not disappear. It will remain a major obstacle to Ukraine's further Euro-integration plans..

[Or is this story merely concocted to give Putin a poke in the eye?]

The buck stops at the president's desk

Judging by remarks  by EU leaders at the just-finished Yalta Economic Summit, unless Yulia Tymoshenko is released [most likely for medical procedures to be carried out in Germany] they will be most reluctant to sign any EU -Ukraine agreement in Vilnius in November.

Yanukovych is demanding some kind of statement from the imprisoned Tymoshenko....an admission of guilt and a plea for clemency, a written request to be released for treatment abroad, payment of huge fines as compensation for pecuniary losses allegedly incurred by the country as a result of the gas deal she made with Putin in 2009, and some kind of undertaking never to return or participate in Ukrainian politics in the future. In other words, Yanukovych expects Tymoshenko to save his face...

To date Tymoshenko, apart from giving a firm blessing to her country's Euro-integration plans, is sitting tight and doing nothing.

Pro and anti Yanukovych supporters are already accusing both Yanukovych and Tymoshenko of 'playing dangerous games' with Ukraine's future...

European leaders and European institutions have long been convinced that Tymoshenko was the subject of crude, politically motivated persecution, that her trial was a farce, and that she has been systematically, physically maltreated during her detainment. This was the primary reason the signing of these deals was postponed in the first place.

Any plea for clemency by Tymoshenko would be meaningless because her lawyers have already made submissions to the European Court of Human Rights complaining her human rights were impinged during her trial. A verdict by the ECHR, most likely in her favour, is expected perhaps next year.

Furthermore, the ECHR has already ruled she was unfairly arrested on the order of the trial judge, calling into question the impartiality of the judge and the soundness of the entire trial procedure.

She was was denied a fair trial to which she was entitled ...The verdict was most dubious and unsafe...this is at the core of the dispute on which Ukraine's geopolitical future hangs.

Sadly, many if not most Ukrainian politicians view Tymoshenko a hostage...a bargaining chip.. a deal clincher to be tossed into any EU-Ukraine deal if/when  this becomes an unavoidable requirement.

As for an undertaking from her to withdraw from politics....every politicial knows: "never ever say never", because circumstances change. Any such undertaking would have no validity or credibility. Who would ensure it would ever be adhered to in the future?

In the most improbable event Tymoshenko and Yanukovych did make some kind of deal, would he trust her to deliver? And vice versa?

Some commentators rather ridiculously suggest Tymoshenko is blackmailing all of the participants in this business: Yanukovych, the EU and even Putin...really? The simple truth is Tymoshenko is behind bars..maybe for a long time. She has no power at all to influence any outcome. Right now her fate is solely in Yanukovych's hands.

The president was already hinting in Yalta that any failure to sign the deal in Vilnius in November would, in part, be the fault of the opposition...."[In the event of non-signing] life will continue, it will not stop....any decision is made by two sides. Ukraine has said its word, we await the response of the EU."

His spin-doctors blame the opposition for bad-mouthing Yanuk before apparently naive and stupid Europeans and putting the outcome of a successful Vilnius signing at risk.......

When asked by Vitaliy Klychko, whether he would resign in the even of non-signature, Yanukovych replied: ""Political processes - they always are either favourable, or hinder. Today they are favourable. that is why I expect you to carry an appropriate share of the responsibility together with me".

Certainly the country now finds itself in a trap, a possible lose-lose situation. But it is entirely of Yanukovych's making. It is he who is shirking his responsibility...someone should put a note on his desk...THE BUCK STOPS HERE..

p.s. Yanukovych also mentioned that just like his questioner Klychko, in his life he has received, and knows how to take a punch...[reminiscing about his shadowy adolescence?] But he forgot to mention anything about delivering blows to the victims he mugged, for which he was twice received prison sentences...His nickname there was 'kham'...[boor or lout in English...]

'Svoboda' links to crime bosses

Over five years ago  'Kolya Rockero', the memorable nickname of crime boss Mykola Lozynskiy, figured briefly in one of my blogs when he was assassinated in a gangland killing in Lviv.

Recently the reputable expres.ua site ran an investigative story entitled "Tyahnybok's money-part 3. Boss of 'Svoboda'. It describes the shadowy financial arrangements of the 'Svoboda' opposition party, and its links to murky financial sponsors. Rockero's name also pops up there.

The article claims the party is bankrolled and thus controlled by a [former?] gangster nicknamed 'Vova Morda', but pressure is growing within the party to jettison Morda [which means snout] and his associates. One of these is a current 'Svoboda' parliamentary deputy, Ihor Kryvetskyi, [long known in criminal circles by the name 'Pups']. He was no 13 on their party list during last year's parliamentary elections.

Little is known about Pups, except that he drives around in either a Bentley, a Ferrari, or a Porsche...and flies a Cessna aeroplane.

Pups was a close associate of the late Rockero, but switched allegiance to the above-mentioned crime boss and rival  Morda...he may have even figured in Rockero's 'downfall'.

In 2006 President Yushchenko publicly instructed the deputy interior minister of the day to rid the country of Morda. "How many divisions do you need in order for Morda to no longer exist?" the former president demanded.

Eventually Morda was charged and given a three year sentence....suspended, of course.

Morda allegedly has ties with several important figures in Ukraine, including oligarch Ihor Kolomoysky and Ihor Palytsya. The latter is CEO of UkrNafta, was a former Nasha Ukraina parliamentary deputy, and is now a non affiliated parliamentary deputy. [Hence the rumours 'Svoboda' are somehow funded by Kolomoysky. ]

Tyhanybok and Morda have a mutual hatred for Yushchenko. The former was kicked out of 'Nasha Ukraina' just before the 2004 presidential elections. Morda and Pups have used 'Svoboda' as their ticket into politics and respectability - a means to whitewash their reputations and provide cover for their 'business activities'.

Their generous funding of 'Svoboda' was also useful to their 'criminal partners in crime from Donetsk and their Party of Regions' friends because 'Svoboda' drained a significant number of votes from 'Batkivshchyna' in the last parliamentary elections.

Many local 'Svoboda' officials in Western Ukraine now happily collaborate with government-appointed judges and regional officials in a wide range of corrupt scams and money-making schemes.

'Expres' allege the multinational Chevron were denied the right to gain access to shale gas deposits in Western Ukraine because they refused to 'co-operate' and pay hundreds of millions of dollars into bank accounts in Cyprus, controlled by Pups and Co.

Last year Morda was lucky to survive an assassination attempt after being shot in the head....the driver of the shot-up SUV vehicle, a mobster known as 'Yozhyk', was killed. After this Pups and Morda seem to have fallen out...[hmm]

Pups is also now close to PoR rising star, parliamentary deputy, Vitaliy Khomutnnik, who his head of PoR's youth section and also deputy head of the parliamentary finance and banking activity committee.

Some Svoboda insiders say that matters cannot continue as they are much longer..the party could blow wide open....but right now Tyahnybok needs Pups.... and Pups needs Tyahnybok... and PoR need a puppet opposition party like 'Svoboda' to chip away support from other opposition parties...

All part of Ukraine's  gangster state "virtual politics"....

Ready for Europe? I don't think so...

p.s. The Express newspaper, the biggest Ukrainian language newspaper in the country, has been continuously harassed by the authorities in recent months and years...

Prospects for Tymoshenko, and Ukraine getting worse?

In her latest article in lb.ua, Sonya Koshkina  discusses the opposition's possibilities in the 2015 presidential elections, and the role the imprisoned Yulia Tymoshenko may play in them.

Koshkina considers the chances of Tymoshenko being released any time soon has declined from a possible 70% down to 30%. Despite this, those currently in power are reasonably confident [overconfident?] that the EU-Ukraine Association and Free Trade Agreements will be successfully signed in Vilnius in November.

She provides several reasons for the increased likelihood of Tymoshenko remaining behind bars.

The European Parliament's observers for Ukraine - former Polish President Alexander Kwasniewski and former European Parliament President  Pat Cox have not been able to guarantee Yanukovych two of his demands. The first was that Tymoshenko, once in Germany for treatment, would remain there and not go 'galivanting 'around the world. The second was to pledge Tymoshenko would not be granted political refugee status once on Germany -  a big black mark for Ukraine.

[Both of Yanukovych's demands are rather peculiar. European Court of Human Rights and Council of Europe rulings and reports have already been highly critical of the manner Tymoshenko has been treated, so a black mark already exists. The ECHR are currently evaluating whether Tymoshenko's trial breached her human rights. It is probable they will rule in her favour.  Cox and Kwansniewski have no power to dictate to sovereign European countries to whom they do or do not grant political refugee status, or whom they permit to enter or leave.]

Party of Regions' are also concerned the release of Tymoshenko could harm Yanukovych's presidential re-election campaign.

At the moment Yanukovych's rating stands at 21% and seems to be quite durable at this level. Second place - VitaliyKlitschko at 16%. Third - 12% Yulia Tymoshenko. Fourth - 9% Yatsenyuk. Behind them - Symonenko five percent, Tyahnybok and Poroshenko at around 4%.

Even if Tymoshenko did not make a second round play-off vote, her support to any opposition candidate could significantly harm Yanukovych chance of winning. Tymoshenko has always done better in elections than predicted by opinion polls.

The signing of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU, although finalised, has been postponed since 19 December 2011, primarily because of the politically motivated criminal persecution, trial, and imprisonment of Yulia Tymoshenko. The question for Kwasniewski, Cox, and other EU leaders have to answer now is what has changed in Ukraine since that date?

I fear the defence mounted by the European Parliament on behalf of its eastern partners, particularly Ukraine, concerning Russian pressure on these countries,  will be misinterpreted by Yanukovych. The EU has now gone 'the extra mile', [check out this brief video in English] the danger is Ukraine's leaders will not, and the AA deal will be postponed again.

p.s. When asked many years ago what was the greatest challenge for a statesman, British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan reportedly responded, “Events, my dear boy, events.”

You make your mark as a statesman by your ability to control events.....failure in Vilnius would now be a disaster for Yanukovych because he has now so firmly committed himself to future Eurointegration. It is in his grubby, capricious hands Tymoshenko is being held..

Successful Vilnius summit now more likely

Verkhovna Rada Speaker Volodymyr Rybak during a visit to Lithuania yesterday declared that Ukraine will satisfy all the requirements set by the EU for the signing of the Association Agreement and Free Trade Agreement, including the release of Yulia Tymoshenko for medical treatment abroad.

Rybak assured Lithuanian leaders, that whatever the pressure from Russia, Ukraine will not deviate from its aim of successfully signing these  EU-Ukraine agreements in the Lithuanian capital late November.

Rybak is a founder member of PoR, and one of Yanukovych's oldest and most trusted pals, so this story has to be taken seriously.

p.s.Yamukovych is seeking assurances from the EU that if Tymoshenko is released for treatment she will be gagged and no longer able to participate in Ukrainian politics in the future.

After Yanukovych was elected president it was made clear to her that if she remained in Ukraine most likely she would eventually wind up in prison.  But unlike Yanukovych, Akhmetov and many others immediately after the Orange Revolution, she did not run..

Yanukovych is well aware of his biggest opponents' determination...and toughness...this is why he fears her so...Tymoshenko's release will influence the 2015 presidential elections...

Her release, which now may occur, will be at the very last possible moment...but the capricious Yanukovych may yet change his mind yet again..it is all in his hands..

Tymoshenko was maltreated - official report

Council of Europe -  European Committee for the Prevention of Torture and Inhuman
or Degrading Treatment or Punishment (CPT) Report which includes much on Yulia Tymoshenko's maltreatment  here: http://www.cpt.coe.int/documents/ukr/2013-23-inf-eng.htm

This will certainly create a stir...adding pressure on Yanukovych to come to a decision on what to do with Tymoshenko..

But my belief is that the president has yet to do this. He will wait until the very last moment possible..hoping the Europeans go soft on the Tymoshenko problem.

The former PM may be willing to go to Germany for treatment in the next few weeks...but not on the conditions demanded by Yanukovych....There is a battle of wills going on.

I speculated about this several months ago.

President and V.R. seem unconvincing on satisfying AA conditions

Oleksiy Plotnikov, one of PoR's top economics bods, thinks there is a "99% chance" that the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement will be signed in late November in Vilnius.

The public utterings of many other Ukrainian officials on a positive outcome of the Vilnius summit have been similarly upbeat.

President Yanukovych in a TV interview promised just a few days ago that all of the conditions set by the EU will be met in good time, including the ending of politically motivated persecution of members of the opposition, which everyone knows means the release from prison of leader of the opposition, Yulia Tymoshenko, [most likely for medical treatment abroad].

But Yanukovych indicated that this is a matter for law-makers - he claimed he himself does not have the authority to resolve 'the Tymoshenko problem'. Yet in his address at today's opening of parliament, he made no mention of any solution.

[IMO the proceedings today all seemed  'wooden' and passionless.....Virtual politics in action? The only Ukrainian politician who can speak with real conviction and sound resolute is Tymoshenko...Maybe this is why she is in prison.]

Nevertheless there are reports from Germany that premises are already being prepared at the elite Charite clinic in Berlin where the former PM may be treated for her chronic spinal illness.

So, will there be what EU Ambassador Jan Tombiński called "a nice surprise" on the Tymoshenko issue?

Only one man, the president, can decide. Right now he has resolved to wait until the very last moment possible to make a decision.

The timetable is tight.

European Parliament monitoring mission members Cox and Kwasniewski have to present a report on the outcome of their mission, to the E.P. on 30th of September. [They have had their mandate extended twice already.]

On 21st October the EU takes a final decision on Ukraine. The Vilnius summit will take place on November 28-29 th. So, in a nutshell, Yanukovych has three weeks max. to decide how to solve the Tymoshenko problem. Also, apart from this, there is no guarantee other outstanding requirements, e.g. on voting laws etc. will be passed in the Verkhovna Rada either. Should have  been sorted last month in parliament at specially-summoned sessions...but hey, exotic holidays are more important, right?

Kyiv elections should be made 'sine qua non' for signing of AA

Today president Yanukovych announced in a recorded interview to be broadcast tomorrow, that "Ukraine will fulfil all of the conditions required for the successful signing of the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement."

Last December, the Council of the EU made it clear: "Ukraine’s performance will determine the pace of engagement [with the EU], and will be assessed on the basis of progress in three areas: the compliance of the 2012 parliamentary elections’ with international standards and follow-up actions, as well as Ukraine’s progress in addressing the issue of selective justice and preventing its recurrence, and in implementing the reforms defined in the jointly agreed Association Agenda. "
[Official document here]

In the nine months since this document was published, apart from the release of Yuriy Lutsenko, to date there has been no progress in 'the three areas' at all. On the contrary, opposition parliamentary deputies have been expelled from parliament on the most dubious of reasons. Opposition rallies and meetings have been disrupted. Parliamentary sittings have taken place with opposition deputies physically excluded. Journalists threatened and harried by thugs who co-operate with law officers. The list goes on and on...

Now everything has now been left until the last moment before November's Vilnius summit. EU leaders should therefore treat Yanukovych's words with scepticism.

The current situation in the Kyiv city hall should add to this scepticism, particularly as one of the conditions set before Ukraine concerned shortcomings in the 2012 parliamentary elections.

According to Article 141 of the Ukrainian constitution:  "Village, settlement, city, rayon, oblast radas shall comprise deputies elected by the residents of village, settlement, city, rayon, oblasts on the basis of universal, equal and direct suffrage by secret ballot. 

The term of powers of the village, settlement, city, rayon, oblasts radas, deputies of which are elected at regular elections, shall be five years. The termination of powers of the village, settlement, city, rayon, oblasts radas shall result in termination of the powers of the deputies of the respective rada."

The residents of Kyiv are being denied their constitutional right to elect their city council deputies at least once every five years. By remaining in office beyond a five year period the current city authorities have brazenly usurped power in the city - the city council rulings have no legitimacy.

The reason for this is that the results of last Autumn's parliamentary election strongly indicated  Yanukovych's friends in the Kyiv city council would be wiped out in any fresh local election. Control of the city will be essential if he were to try to 'fiddle' the results of the 2015 presidential elections.

Even though the EU seem to be going soft on other issues, they should not remain silent. Now is the time for max pressure to be applied on Yanukovych, not for backing off - he cannot be allowed to get away with this. It should be made clear: if a date is not set imminently for fresh mayoral and city council elections in the capital, then no AA.

As for Ukraine's opposition parties', they have not responded resolutely  on this issue. They seem happier just 'swanning about' in Brussels..

There are credible reports that Arseniy Yatseniuk's cousin Voldymyr is co-operating in tendering 'stitch-ups' via shady off-shore companies together with businesses close to 'The Family' in order to secure 1 Bn Hryvnya hospital-building contracts in Kyiv at the Amosov Cardiovascular Institute.

'Svoboda' are also allegedly involved in property machinations in Kyiv running into many millions of dollars...and are actively co-operating with the Communists....

Virtual politics or what?

Ukraine - important hub for drugs...BBC documentary

Please watch this excellent BBC documentary on "Europe's Dirty Drugs Secret"..Ukraine..

Most BBC programmes are only available for viewing inside the UK, but it has been posted on Youtube here

"Europe's Dirty Drugs Secret: Stacey Dooley Investigates..

Stacey Dooley travels to Ukraine on Europe's far eastern edge to investigate the struggle to keep drugs out of the UK. Stacey reveals that drug cartels from South America have been using Ukraine as a transit hub to smuggle cocaine into western Europe. To uncover why cocaine shipments are taking this 2,000-mile detour, Stacey visits a new frontline in the war against international drug trafficking - the port of Odessa on Ukraine's Black Sea coast. Ukrainian officials show her the tricks traffickers use to hide drugs within cargoes - inside anything from industrial furnaces to excavated pineapples. But she soon learns from a port worker and a former drug trafficker that Ukrainian customs officials are notoriously open to bribes to get cargoes through"

Stacey also discovers that, because the drugs smuggled into Ukraine are too expensive for most local drug users, some are resorting to horrific homemade substitutes. Perhaps the worst is 'crocodile', so called because it rots the flesh of users and turns it scaly. Stacey meets some young addicts as they make a batch from bleach, petrol and tablets bought at the chemist." 

Stacey Dooley's 'naif'  journalistic style cleverly exposes the smug incompetence and disdainful attitude of many of Ukraine's customs and law enforcement services to their work. IMO a very revealing documentary..

Gongs* for gangsters [updated]

President Yanukovych bestowed the traditional state honours on 'worthy' Ukrainian citizens today - the 22nd anniversary of Ukraine's declaration of independence.

The depths to which this man descends never fails to amaze.

One of the most hated politicians in Ukraine, minister of Education, 'Ukrainophobe' Dmytro Tabachnyk, received the Order of Yaroslav the Wise in the 4th degree.

Yuriy Ivanyushchenko, a PoR parliamentary deputy, perhaps one of Yanukovych's most trusted pals from the 'old days' in his home town of Yenakiyeve, was granted an 'Order of Merit' in the 3rd degree, even though he is almost never seen in parliament.

Minister of the Interior, Vitaliy Zakharchenko, received a similar award.

Ivanyuschenko, a.k.a. Yura Yenakiyivskyi or Yurets Maloyi, is one of the most mysterious and sinister characters in Ukrainian politics - he is certainly one of the richest. Until Yanukovych became president no-one even knew what he looked like. He had spent most of the previous decade in Monaco.

There is some evidence he may have led a criminal gang of hit men in the days of the 'wild east'. They were allegedly involved in more than 40 killings including that of Shakhtar Donetsk president Akhat Bragin.

On the rare occasions Ivanyushchenko is spotted in public, he is surrounded by a phalanx of  armed bodyguards and armoured automobiles.

Ivanyushchenko had been denied a US visa for years. To resolve this problem in 2011 he hired, at huge expense, lobbying companies in the USA . Eventually they got him a special UN visa by  putting him a UN official visitor list. Yuriy Y, humiliatingly had to give a detailed itinerary of his 3 day stay in the New York to enable US officials to locate him, if required, any time, day or night.

Yuriy Y, according to some sources is involved in shadow schemes in the coal industry that may be costing his country up to 1 Bn UAH annually.

[Detailed article about Yura Y's shady past and businesses, in English here]

As for the Donetskiite interior minister Zakharchenko, he is the guy who initiated the practice of supplementing lines of law enforcement officers with young thugs during opposition protest marches and rallies etc. They are now known as 'Titushky' after a certain Vadym Titushko  figured in video footage assaulting journalists.  Zakharchenko's almost two years in ministerial office has seen trust in the police decline to low single figures. Men under his control have raped and robbed with impunity... as in the small town of Vradiyivka....Physical assaults on Ukrainian journalist have become a daily occurrence despite appeals to the minister for protection by independent journalists' organisations .

Bandit land extortioner Artem Pshonka, son of the Prosecutor General, known as 'raider No.1 in Ukraine'  also received an award from Yanukovych.

Pass me the sick bag....

Is the EU really going to sign an agreement of association with such people? Will the AA in any way change their behaviour for the better? Are you kidding?

Update: Another bandit receiving an award, that of Princess Olga, was Valentyna Arbuzova, mother of the deputy PM whose son Serhiy is close to president Yanukovych's son.

Arbuzova, is the chairman of the All-Ukrainian Bank for Development, [VBR].

"VBR is thought to be controlled by Oleksandr Yanukovych, the elder son of the president, who appears to have been expanding dramatically the family’s interests in the banking sector." [Source]

Arbuzova was allegedly involved in a major money laundering operation in the early nineties, and possibly even murder.

Excellent investigative article on these sinister people here

E.g. "According to media reports from the time, at a meeting in 1997, the Donetsk regional administration’s committee for combating organised crime, in the presence of top regional and national law enforcement officials, including two deputy heads of the SBU, singled out Valentina Arbuzova for her bank’s money laundering activities, in particular the creation of fictive companies, abuse of loro accounts and hard currency transactions. The regional prosecutor said that criminal cases had been opened against Privatbank officials for implementing money transfers, up to $200,000 dollars per day, on fictive contracts.

In 1998, in an article published in the government announcer, Golos Ukrainy, Ukraine’s then prosecutor general Mikhail Potrebenko singled out Valentina Arbuzova’s bank as having laundered funds for a major organised crime group, using eleven fictive companies with accounts at Donetsk’s Privatbank division."

*British Slang. a medal or military decoration.

EU must not go wobbly on Ukraine

FT reports Russia’s president Vladimir Putin has warned Ukraine it would face protective measures from the Moscow-led customs union of former Soviet republics if it forged closer political and trade ties with the EU. According to the FT, the dispute between the two countries could escalate into a full-blown trade war, .

So now is the right time for the EU to get tough with Ukraine too, end the ambiguous statements and make it absolutely clear to Yanukovych that if his country does not meet the conditions that have been set [see previous blog], conditions dozens of countries in Europe and beyond have no problem adhering to, then it is 'no deal' in Vilnius in November - you're on your own with the wolves pal...

Scrapping the habit for postponing elections and setting a date for overdue Kyiv city council elections would be a start...

Scrub the AA

In December 2012 the European Council made signature of the Association Agreement (concluded but not signed in December 2011) contingent upon Ukraine fulfilling three conditions:

• complying with international standards of electoral practice, 
• ending selective justice, 
• implementing the reforms defined in the jointly agreed Association Agenda’

The EU has already described the last Autumn's parliamentary elections as 'a step backward'.

And the EU Delegation to Ukraine was "deeply concerned" by the postponement until 2015 of the Kyiv city local elections after the city council's mandate expired several weeks ago. The previous elections had last been held in 2008.

The result of the 2012 parliamentary elections in Kyiv shows that the capital's electorate can no longer be easily manipulated or bought off with cheap bribes; pro-government forces in the city council are most aware they would be all but wiped out in any fresh local election.

Control of Kyiv, a city whose population is greater that that of some EU countries, will be vital for Yanukovych if he wants to win the 2015 presidential elections hence the cynical postponement of city council elections and the hijacking and violent scenes before yesterday's unscheduled Kyiv city council "session".

Many dozens of paid thuggish louts of 'sporting appearance' were again used by so called "law enforcement bodies" as a first line of defence. These are the same thugs who disrupted the count at many polling stations in last year's parliamentary elections and during 'Arise Ukraine' demonstrations organised by Ukraine's opposition parties. They have been seen actively taking part in regular corporate raids of property during which police usually turn a blind eye.

See disturbing video of these thugs in front of police lines yesterday here

This is just not acceptable in a country striving to meet European standards of behaviour.

Opposition deputies were targeted and assaulted when they wanted to take advantage of their constitutional right to enter Kyiv city hall, breaking an unwritten rule that elected deputies should never be beaten by police.

Head of the National Security and Defence Council and long-time close associate of Yanukovych, Andriy Kluyev was allegedly the organiser of these 'measures'.

  If there is credible evidence of this the EU should ban him from entry into member countries and ensure his substantial financial interests in Austria are scrupulously vetted for legitimacy.

The Vilnius summit when the EU-Ukraine Association could be signed is exactly 100 days away. Two of the three conditions set by the EU are being totally disregarded. Since December 2011 Yanukovych has ignored any concern European bodies have expressed about the country's slide to authoritarianism.

Decent standards of electoral practice have not been adhered to. Selective justice continues to prevail. Opposition politicians are still being targeted, and Yulia Tymoshenko has not been released despite the European Court of Human Rights court ruling in her favour.

The Association Agreement should now be 'pulled' from the agenda of the November Vilnius summit.

Putin's trade war; how will 'kham*' respond?

During his visit to Ukraine a few days ago, at a round table discussion with the odious Viktor Medvedchuk, president Putin declared that 'Ukraine's economic recovery is only possible with the help of Russia'.

The first shots of the current trade war against Ukraine indicate Putin intends to demonstrate this in practice.

Dmitriy Korneychuk in his 'Liga.net blog entited: "Putin's trade war: a demo-version of life without Russia", explains Putin's motives.

Putin wants to show everyone that Russia will not tolerate any public humiliation of his leadership;  he will always assert Russia's interests; he will always provide 'an adequate response' to those he perceives as enemies.This message is intended for both for Ukraine and the West, and for the Russians themselves, including Putin's entourage, who may be thinking that the leader is getting old and showing weakening resolve.

Second, he want to give Ukraine a demo-version of what relations with Russia would be like after any possible signing of an Association Agreement with the EU. If the AA deal is not signed in November Putin will claim the biggest foreign policy victory for Russia since Ukraine's rejection of membership of NATO, or since the signing of the punitive 2009 gas agreements.

Third, the Kremlin's actions bolsters pro-Russian forces in Ukraine. Some even claim they intend to create a powerful pro-Russian political force in Ukraine and put forward their own candidate in the 2015 Ukrainian presidential elections.

Fourth, Moscow is pursuing its strategic gas interests. The 40% reduction on the purchase of gas by Ukraine, its biggest customer for gas, in the first six months of 2013 has seriously alarmed Gazprom. The creation of gas consortium to manage the Ukrainian gas transit system in exchange for cheaper gas has shown little sign of progress even though Russia claims all the documents are 'ready to go'.

But in these days of 'just-in-time' deliveries, such a trade war will very quickly impact Russian manufacturers who depend on Ukrainian suppliers, so Putin has to be selective on the imports he targets.

There are opinions all of this might be just a pseudo trade war, trumped up by the RosUkrEnergo group, their Russian associates and Dmitriy Firtash in their battle with the president's circle.

But Putin's  latest manoeuvres will obviously not go unnoticed in Europe's capitals. It will strengthen the EU's resolve to ensure Yanukovych 'does his homework' and makes progress in satisfying the EU's conditions which were set in order for Ukraine to prove it be considered a suitable partner for the AA. There have been rumours recently that the EU had been going soft on these conditions, even no longer viewing Tymoshenko's release abroad as a 'sine qua non'..

So far, the Ukrainian authorities' response to this developing trade war has been unfocussed - they look disorientated even though it has been brewing slowly but steadily since February.

Since coming to power, Yanukovych has been more interested in destroying his greatest political rival, Yulia Tymoshenko than acting firmly and renegotiating from scratch the ruinous gas deal she was forced to make under great duress in 2009 with Putin. This may have been interpreted by the Kremlin as weakness on Yanukovych's part..

Yanukovych, particularly with his criminal gangland background, should instinctively know he now has to respond resolutely and cannot be seen to cower..He is also aware that if he concedes to Putin and joins the Eurasian Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, rather than clinching the AA deal, he will always have to give way to Putin in the future..And his political future becomes more unpredictable.


An interesting Autumn awaits...

*kham was Yanukovych's 'handle' when in prison. It means lout or boor..

Passing of a decent man

The website of the Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group announced the tragic death of well-known human rights activist Dmytro Groysman thus:

"On 5 August our colleague, Dmytro (Dima) Groysman died of a heart attack.  He was 41 and had suffered from a long-term heart condition.

Most prominent as Coordinator of the Vinnytsa Human Rights Group, Dima was by profession a doctor and lawyer.  In 1993 he was one of the founders of the Ukrainian section of Amnesty International. From 1994-2000 he worked as coordinator of a national campaign for the abolition of the death penalty in Ukraine. In 2000 Ukraine’s Constitutional Court agreed that the death penalty was in breach of Ukraine’s Constitution. 

In 1998 Dima founded and headed the Vinnytsa Human Rights Group which worked actively in defence of refugees, as well as on other issues.

The human rights community has lost one of its most prominent individuals, a person for whom there could be no restrictions or authorities when confronting injustice.

Dima will be much missed.

Our deepest sympathy to Dima’s wife, Svitlana Poberezhets, his son David, and those closest to him"

In 2009, Groysman was on the "Korrespondent" magazine's list of "Top 100 most influential Ukrainians" as the protector and defender of prisoners and other victims of police lawlessness.

He saved hundreds, maybe even thousands of people from the clutches of sadists and torturers in prisons and police stations. In his eloquent television appearances he always appeared level-headed and most dignified - a man the authorities therefore hated and feared.

In recent years he had been pursued by prosecutors for alleged distribution of pornography. Groysman always said law enforcement officials were out to get him was in order to gain access to the Vinnytsya Human Rights Group files on refugees and asylum seekers. [As in video, in Ukrainian]. The trafficking of human beings from Africa and elsewhere has allegedly become a big business for some members of law enforcement and Interior Ministry agencies.

Groysman had been summoned by prosecutors and investigators to attend a mind-boggling 72 questioning sessions  in connection with one supposedly pornographic image posted on his blog website [that of a small naked male doll in a state of arousal placed on a copy of the Ukrainian Constitution].

His next interrogation, the 73rd, was scheduled for August 7th. This constant police harassment, surely a major source of stress, may well have contributed to his death.

The absurd, fabricated case against him will most likely now be closed, but Groysman's friends are determined to clear his name.

In a decent country Groysman would have received awards for his humanitarian work. In Ukraine he was hounded, perhaps to his grave..

The only people to gain comfort from his passing are the thugs and sadists who run Ukraine's totally discredited and almost universally mistrusted law enforcement agencies, and the scum bags they serve.

For how long are Ukrainians going to tolerate such a situation?

Ukraine much closer to CU than EU

Mr Bruce Rickerson in this UPI.com article entitled "Tymoshenko, Ukraine and the EU" is correct in his assertion that signing of the the EU/Ukraine Association Agreement is in the balance.

But the 'crime' for which former PM Yulia Tymoshenko was charged and sentenced did not involve personal corruption. She was charged under part 3. 365 of the Ukrainian Criminal Code - abuse of power and exceeding official authority, not "corruption and embezzlement" as is stated in this UPI article. In most democratic countries her cabinet's management of the 2008/2009 gas crisis would in no way be considered a crime.

The European Court of Human Rights have already ruled she was unjustly arrested on the order of trial judge, Rodion Kireyev, prior to her trial. The impartiality of the judge, and the entire trial procedure therefore, can be considered compromised. The ECHU are now determining whether her human rights were abused and the trial itself unjust. It is highly probable in months to come they will declare Tymoshenko was and is the victim of politically motivated persecution.

Evidence produced in preliminary hearings in case against the former prime minister for the 1996 killing of Member of Parliament Yevhen Shcherban, his wife, and two other people, has been risible. There is no case to answer - the case would have been thrown out of any reputable West European court.

Since  president Yanukovych  come to power in 2010, instead of making progress in bringing his country closer to European democratic standards, he has single-mindedly taken measures to seize ever more power and money for himself and his Donetsk cronies.

The point of no return on the country's road to authoritarian may well have already been passed.

Mistrust by Ukrainians by its citizens of the judiciary and law enforcement agencies, degraded  since 2010, has greatly increased and is now almost total.

Any Association Agreement should be postponed until such time Ukraine shows itself to be a country where democratic standards are at least comparable to those in the rest of Europe.

As one commentator said, Ukraine already resembles more strongly a Customs Union country than an EU country...apart from what it pays for gas.

Heaven and Hell [part 2]

In my previous blog I wrote about Saturday's celebration at the St Volodymyr monument. to mark the 1025th anniversary  of the conversion to Christianity of Kyivan-Rus  The monument is a famous landmark in the city which looks out over the Dnipro River.

On Saturday only a few hundred specially selected and vetted people could join presidents Putin and Yanukovych, and the presidents of Serbia and Moldova, at the service which was conducted by the Patriarch of Moscow, Alexei.

Security was unprecedentedly, absurdly tight - thousands of security goons were out in force lining routes etc. The VIPs were constantly enveloped by swarms of bodyguards.

Today the Pariarch of Kyiv, Filaret, led a procession of many thousands of the faithful to the same place for a service. In marked contrast, there were virtually no security personnel present, only a few dozen policemen along the route, despite the large numbers. [photos here]

Yesterday was about posture and power games played out by arrogant politicians/thugs*...today was a proper religious celebration in which all believers could participate...

*In the last few days several members of the controversial feminist group Femen have been severely beaten up by unknown assailants. Femen not unreasonably allege that the timing is not a coincidence, and that Putin and Yanukovych are behind these brutal attacks in revenge for Femen's heckling and dissing of Patriarch Kirill  at Kyiv airport last year and Putin in Hannover, Germany a few months ago. It is probable that Ukrainian authorities did not want a messy and embarrassing Pussy Riot-type trial on their hands before the Vilnius summit in November. Much simpler to revert to their preferred  M.O. - sent in the goons and crack a few skulls...knock out a few teeth....

Heaven and hell

From one report on Pope Francis' recent visit to Brazil:

"Pope Francis' decision to shun a major security detail for his visit to Brazil exemplifies his view of what the Roman Catholic Church should be doing: Go out into the streets. Spread the faith. Recapture the dynamism that other denominations have been using to snap up souls.

Upon his arrival in Rio de Janeiro this week, that philosophy helped produce a defining vignette of his young papacy: The pope rolling down the window to touch the adoring crowds who surrounded his Fiat as his driver and bodyguards struggled to get him on his way."

From another report on the same visit:

".. the 76-year-old shunned the bullet-proof Pope-mobile normally used for pontifical visits, instead walking around the Varginha favela, a poverty-stricken community in an area of Rio nicknamed the "Gaza Strip" for its drug crime, violence and gang warfare..."

Compare with reports on Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and All Russia's current visit to Ukraine which 'Voice of Russia' describes thus :

"Ceremonial prayer marking 1025th anniversary of Kievan Rus' Christianization

A ceremonial prayer celebrating the 1025th anniversary of Kievan Rus' Christianization is under way on St. Volodymyr's Hill in Kiev. The celebration is broadcast live on Ukrainian television.

Taking part in the prayer are Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and All Russia, Metropolitan Volodymyr of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate, and nine heads of local Orthodox churches. Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Moldovan President Nicolae Timofti, and Serbian President Tomislav Nikolic are also taking part in the event."

But the dominant characteristic of this event has been the unprecented absolutely, absurdly OTT security arrangements.

Those wishing to attend the outdoor service had to pass through four [!] security screening lines where bottles of water, and even holy communion bread and traditional 'paska' bread were taken away and dumped on the ground from those passing through the cordons .

Lesser VIPs and dignitaries were also subjection to humiliation. Mobile telephone communication was jammed.

Patriach Kirill was constantly surrounded by a massive security detail who remained between him and fenced-off well-wishers.  Security men constantly scrupulously filmed the crowds with video cameras.

Naturally, all of the 'top bananas' arrived wearing black suits and rode in huge black armoured Merc limos....

Lots of photos and video clips of the event here. 

The whole visit is one big 'pokazukha' for the benefit of Yanukovych and Putin who don't give a fig for the ordinary guys in the street. They who can be treated as saps [lokhy] by their rulers...but for how long..

New Constitutional Court head will entrench Yanukovych in power after 2015

Several days ago Vyacheslav Ovcharenko was elected as a chairman of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine.

Ovcharenko is a 100% Yanukovych loyalist promoted to provide a 'belt and braces' guarantee Yanukovych remains president after 2015, whatever the results of elections to be held in that year.

This is what Liga.net have to say about this man:

Vyacheslav Ovcharenko worked as a mechanic and was involved in a scandal surrounding the disappearance of criminal case file against Yanukovych 

The 56-year-old Ovcharenko was born in Yenakievo, which is also Yanukovych's home town. From 1983 to 1984 he worked as a legal advisor at the Yenakievo auto repair department of the "Ordzhonikidzeugol" plant. Then head of the plant auto transport depot at that time was Viktor Yanukovych.

Ovcharenko was appointed head of the Yenakievo city court in December 2002 - a month after Yanukovych was appointed prime minister for the first time.

In 2006 he was promoted to the Constitutional Court in Kyiv when Yanukovych headed the new parliamentary coalition [PoR-Communists-Socialists]. After this Yanukovych became PM for a second time.

Following the Orange Revolution there were strong suspicions that in December 2002, during the first premiership of Viktor Yanukovych, Ovcharenko had been involved in the disappearance of documents confirming the criminal convictions of the current president in 1967 and 1969. Yanukovych spent three and a half years in prison for crimes of violence as a result of these convictions. Ovcharenko had claimed the court premises were 'poorly guarded' in the late '80's.

As a high-ranking judge his salary would currently be rather less than $50K p.a. Despite this his has somehow managed to become a very wealthy man. According to his official declarations he owns two homes, a large plot of land, three nearly new automobiles, seven expensive motorcycles including a fancy Harley Davidson, and a tractor.

In February 2013 a photographer snapped photos of Ovcharenko wearing a $27K Breguet Marine Chronograph wristwatch.

According to 'Ukrainska Pravda': Ovcharenko's primary function will be to manage the Constitutional Court in the turbulent months before and after the presidential election. Bearing in mind in 2010 the Constitutional Court gave back Viktor Yanukovych much greater powers than those held by his predecessor Viktor Yushchenko, nothing will stop it legitimising any other whims of Yanukovych. These could include election of the president by the parliament; or election of the president in just one round [as opposed to the current two round system]. Or the setting up of  a bicameral parliament and depriving deputies of the immunity which they now possess. Or the setting up an entirely new Constitution.

Another important point - the President of the Constitutional Court is responsible for conducting the swearing in of a newly elected president. In other words, in case of defeat for Yanukovych in 2015 Ovcharenko could block the inauguration of any other possible winner on a technicality.

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Overkill

Last night about 1000 'Berkut' special forces personnel in full riot gear were sent to clear 200 or so peaceful, tired, lightly dressed protesters from the central Maidan or Independence Square in Kyiv, even though there was no threat of civil disobedience. [videos here also here ]. Several television journalists were assaulted and their equipment damaged in the melee, even though they claim their press ID was clearly presented to the riot police.

The protesters had marched for many days from the small town of Vradiyivka where local police had allegedly been systematically stealing, extorting, raping and even murdering its residents for many years.

The situation came to a head when a local girl was raped and left for dead, resulting in the attempted storming of the local police headquarters. The story hit a nerve and the story was widely reported. There are many subsequent reports of similar situations existing right across the country.

Many Ukrainians now truly fear law enforcement agencies because they are out of control - not accountable to citizen watchdog committees as they are in many countries. Police approval ratings are in low single digits.

Opposition politicians claim law enforcement agencies, police, prosecutors and the judiciary now primarily serve only two purposes: to provide cover for the massive enrichment of President Yanukovych, his 'Family' and their associates, and to crush any possible protest movements, including reasonable, well organised peaceful ones such as the Vradiyivka march.

Policing should have been particularly tactful and sensitive in Independence Square last night, bearing in mind the reason why the demonstrators had gathered and what their demands were. Intimidating peaceful demonstrators with such a large number of special forces troops, the largest number collectively assembled for several years in the capital, was complete overkill...

There is mounting evidence, e.g. as in this video,  that passers-by, even those not known to one another are willing to physically challenge police on a day-to-day basis.

European Court looks into the criminal proceedings against former Ukrainian Prime Minister Tymoshenko

European Court looks into the criminal proceedings against former Ukrainian Prime Minister Tymoshenko [Source]

The European Court of Human Rights has communicated to the Ukrainian Government the application Tymoshenko v. Ukraine no. 2 (no. 65656/12) and requested it to submit its observations on the complaints.

The case is the second application brought by the former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko. It mainly concerns the criminal proceedings brought against her relating to contracts for the supply of gas.

Yuliya Tymoshenko, born in 1960, is the leader of Batkivshchyna, one of the strongest opposition parties in Ukraine, and of Yuliya Tymoshenko’s Bloc. She was the Prime Minister of Ukraine in 2005 and between December 2007 and March 2010. In April 2011, criminal proceedings were brought against her for allegedly making an illegal order for the signing of a contract concerning gas imports. On 11 October 2011, she was convicted on all charges, including that of exceeding authority or official powers, and sentenced to seven years’ imprisonment and a three-year ban on holding public office.

On 29 August 2012, the conviction and sentence were upheld in a final judgment. Ms Tymoshenko’s first application before the European Court of Human Rights (no. 49872/11) concerned complaints related to her detention.

In its Chamber judgment of 30 April 2013, which is not final, the Court held in particular: that Ms Tymoshenko’s pre-trial detention had been arbitrary; that the lawfulness of her detention had not been properly reviewed; and, that she had had no possibility to seek compensation for her unlawful deprivation of liberty, in violation of Article 5 (right to liberty and security) of the European Convention on Human Rights.

The Court also found that, in breach of Article 18 of the Convention (limitation on use of restrictions on rights), her right to liberty had been restricted for reasons other than those permitted under Article 5.

The second application, brought on 10 August 2011, concerns the fairness of the criminal proceedings. In particular, relying on Article 6 §§ 1 and 3 (b) and (c) (right to a fair trial), Ms Tymoshenko complains of difficulties in defending her case before the national courts and questions their independence and impartiality. She also questions the quality of the provisions of the Criminal Code which were applied in her case, alleging a breach of Article 7 (no punishment without law).

She further claims that the criminal case against her was politically inspired and constituted an abuse of the criminal system of justice, relying on Article 18 (limitation on use of restrictions on rights). Ms Tymoshenko makes a number of complaints under Articles 3 (prohibition of torture and inhuman or degrading treatment) and/or Article 8 (right to respect for private and family life): she alleges that a video tape recorded in the hospital where she has been treated since 9 May 2012, showing her in her room and during medical procedures, was published on the Internet and was also broadcast on the majority of regional TV channels. She further complains that at least three other video recordings ware available on the official website of the State Penitentiary Service, and that an audio recording of a telephone conversation between Ms Tymoshenko and her husband was published on the Internet.

She also alleges that she faces difficulties in making any telephone calls from the hospital. Finally, she complains that she has been deprived of any possibility of communicating with the media and the outside world since 5 August 2011, which has had a negative impact on her political life.

More cheap promises from Yanuk

Following today's Visegrad Group heads of state meeting in Poland which was also attended by president Yanukovych,  the Polish president's official site reports:

"We are pleased to note that President Yanukovych mentioned efforts to find a resolution to this problem [of  Tymoshenko imprisonment] in keeping with Ukrainian laws, in other words either under current laws or by way of an amendment of Ukrainian law by parliament. We connect very far-reaching hopes [i.e. for success of the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius] with this statement", declared the Polish head of state.

Yanukovych assured that his country intended to meet all the conditions and announced the introduction of all necessary legislation at latest by September."

F.N.'s comment: Yanukovych will delay any possible release of Tymoshenko for just as long as he can. Some of his advisers think there is a chance the Association Agreement will be signed even if she is still in prison, as long they made undertakings 'to release her just as soon as Ukrainian legislation permits..'

Others warn the president that if he lets Tymoshenko out of prison for medical treatment abroad right now, the Europeans will then immediately press for further concessions, e.g. greater reform of election law. Currently, Yanukovych can fix the election rules in such a way as to provide the greatest chance of success in the 2015 presidential elections. [Note: Manipulation of electoral rules - change to a 50-50 constituency-party list system gave PoR a ruling majority together with their Communist allies, even though the three remaining opposition parties gained a greater percentage share of  votes cast.]

But most importantly, In Yanuk's eyes, the release of Tymoshenko will harm the chances of him remaining in power after 2015...this is why she was locked up in the first place. The logic remains unchanged.

Yanuk has been making cheap promises to European heads of state for the best part of two years now.... he does not negotiate in good faith...how can he be taken seriously? He cannot..

Professor David Marples is quite correct - "there is no reason to question the belief that the detention of Tymoshenko is contrived and politically motivated.... her release should be made the sine qua non for the signing of the association agreement in November."

Will the march of protest reach Ukraine?

One June 27 in the village of Vradiyivka [pop 8,500], near Pervomaysk, Mykolayiv oblast, a young woman was severely assaulted and gang raped by three men, two of which she alleges were policemen, one allegedly the nephew of the local prosecutor. She is very poorly, but stable, in hospital suffering from a broken skull.

The authorities hastily arranged a late-night session in order to 'whitewash' the alleged perpetrators; their family members and 'krysha' arrived in the usual SUV's to 'sort it all out'. However, word soon got around and outraged villagers armed with shovels and pitchforks surrounded the court. Mobile networks in the surrounding area were cut,  as was internet communication.

Tonight over a 1000 villagers have again attacked the the regional centre police headquarters in Vradiyivka demanding the perpetrators be brought to justice and punished. According to some reports all of the windows have been smashed and tear gas and even live ammunition has been discharged. The situation could turn very ugly indeed....

Vradiyivka is just a few miles away from to Chausove -2 and the Kornatsky farm about which I have blogged recently.....

p.s. The gang rape and murder of an Indian medical student in Delhi last December triggered major violent public protests in India.Two police officers may have been involved. Security forces within India are frequent perpetrators of violence against women, according to a report by an UH-affiliated human rights group.

This week's 'Economist' lead story?

"The march of protest: A wave of anger is sweeping the cities of the world. Politicians beware.."
No-one can predict what can trigger protests. In Brazil it was a steep increases in bus fares....
In Turkey it was the demolishing of a city park to erect a shopping centre....

Ukrainian authorities can be thankful that Vradiyivka is not near an heavily populated urban centre..