Putin pushing for Minsk-2?

Independent journalists confirm large quantities of heavy military hardware have entered, and have been brazenly moving around separatist controlled areas of Eastern Ukraine. This new-stock equipment is undoubtedly Russian in origin.

As Kyiv newspaper 'Delovaya Stolitsa' explains, the new round of escalation in the Donbas region is merely an attempt to repeat of the events of last August when Russia also hugely ramped up military presence to force Kyiv to negotiate with militant separatists.

As a result, after Ukrainian forces' heavy losses in Ilovaisk, the loss of Novoazovsk, and the shelling of Mariupol, on September 5 a ceasefire agreement was signed in Minsk. But neither the separatists nor Russia had any intention to adhere to their side of the deal, and have not done so.

The current escalation is similar to these events at the end of August and beginning of September, the difference being the separatist signatories of the Minsk agreement, Zaharchenko and Plotnitsky, had no formal status at that time. Today Russia is forcing Kyiv to negotiate with leaders supposedly "elected by the voters of Novorossiya".

In September this ruse worked, so why not repeat the same stunt and so achieve the legalisation of "DNR" and "LNR"?

The Ukrainian side has not recognised the pseudo-elections held recently in the occupied enclaves, and neither has any one else of significance, but if former president Kuchma or any other authorised person sits at the table with so-called "DNR and LNR negotiators" this would would legalise their status.

The Kremlin needs to show Russians, and the rest of outside world, that Kyiv ostensibly agrees the conflict in eastern Ukraine is of a purely domestic nature; and that after the armed conflict one side is negotiating with the other on equal terms.

One DNR leader claims such a Minsk-2 meeting could take place in a couple of weeks, but there has not been any hint of any such meeting being arranged by the Ukrainian side.

'Delovaya Stolitsa' suggests that if president Poroshenko and the Ukrainian MFA is indeed conducting such secret deals on a possible Minsk-2, many Ukrainians will be shocked by such a back-down.

Minsk-1 was seen by many as a humiliation and was, perhaps, the main reason Poroshenko's Bloc fared worse than expected in the parliamentary elections three weeks ago.

A freshly-elected parliament is due to start work at the start of December; any cave-in by Poroshenko will result in major ructions in the new Verkhovna Rada. Similarly, any more military pressure from the separatist/Russian side will also reduce the likelihood of any Minsk 2 meeting.

LEvko thinks Putin is deliberately and arrogantly sending unmarked heavy military equipment into eastern Ukraine in order to humiliate Ukraine and the Western community who desperately want a peaceful resolution to the conflict. Such moves merely generate even more distrust and anger because all know it was Putin who triggered this completely avoidable and tragic conflict, and it is Putin who continues to fan its flames.

ps Also well worth reading: "Putin Wants Total Victory In Eastern Ukraine — Not A 'Frozen Conflict". Any Minsk 2 would be a sham, just like Minsk 1.

The article concludes:

The Kremlin may be settling in for a very long geopolitical struggle with the West, with plans to apply maximum pressure not just on Kiev but on the West, including military pressure (short of war, in the coming months and years. The goal would be to use support of the separatists in eastern Ukraine, and military and political brinksmanship elsewhere, to divide the West politically, weaken the EU, and weaken NATO.

What makes this possibility so dangerous is that, while the effort is unlikely to succeed, it raises the risks of a military clash between Russia and the West, with all the attendant risks of escalation

The West have no choice but prepare for such a probable scenario.

Russians not keen on LNR and DNR

Interesting Russian Opinion Poll today from Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) - "the oldest and the leading marketing and opinion research company in the post-Soviet space":

Amongst several topics considered,

43% of Russians polled think their country should not intervene, but rather remain neutral w.r.t. DNR and LNR 

Only 11% think DNR and LNR should be incorporated into Russian Federation. Importantly, this figure has gone right down from 6 months ago...

These figures will give Putin much to ponder..

I've clipped and google-translated one portion below:

Do you think what position should take Russia in respect of Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republic (DNI and LC)? (Close-ended question, one answer)
	April 2014 *	July 2014	October 2014
Not intervene to maintain neutrality	45	36	43
Recognize the DNI and LC as independent states	13	26	23
Take DNI and LC in the Russian Federation	18	12	11
Help DNR and LC expand autonomy while remaining a part of Ukraine	12	15	8
Kiev authorities to help regain control over the territory of the DNI and LC	4	2	3
Difficult to answer	8	9	12

Summary of polling day in separatist Donbas

Brilliant summary from RFE/RL:

"Here are some quick takeaways from an eventful day in Eastern Ukraine 

-- As has already been widely reported, today's vote in Ukraine's separatist republics will not be recognized by the West. From the point of view of the leaders of the self-proclaimed "DNR" and "LNR" however, this may be irrelevant, because Moscow has given every indication that it will recognize them. In theory, this will allow Moscow to more publicly deal with the separatists as a government separate from Ukraine. 

-- Drawing official turnout figures will be nearly impossible. Nonetheless, reports on the ground showed long lines of people and in interviews, many were less enchanted with separatist leaders than bitterly angry with Ukraine's leadership in Kyiv. The war in eastern Ukraine has taken a heavy toll and it is clear that many in Donetsk and Luhansk blame Ukraine.

-- In the weeks leading up to this vote, many had talked about it signaling the start of a long-running frozen conflict, with de-facto borders. However, reports that Russian military personnel and equipment are again entering Ukraine in large numbers may mean something altogether different. Separatist leaders have said they plan to reclaim lost territories and also the important port city of Mariupol. And its not just about land -- areas currently in Ukrainian control have  resources that may be necessary to maintain viable services, including electricity. 

-- Russia appears to be testing the West again. The vote today was a clear violation of the Minsk agreement, signed by Russia, which stipulated that early elections in separatist-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk would have to take place under Ukrainian law. Does the EU -- now distracted by other international events -- have the wherewithal to continue, and add to, the sanctions already in place against Russia? What is the EU prepared to do if Russia escalates the conflict militarily?"

p.s. Unless there is a very firm and concerted response from EU leaders who have been ignored yet again, and military assistance is provided from abroad, Mariupol will be under serious threat of attack.

It appears from video clips/photos that few Donbas citizens in the 18 - 30 year age band voted?  At hustings it was predominantly the middle-aged and elderly who were in attendance. Proper revolutions are youth-driven...no? My guess is a huge number of young people, especially those with marketable skills, have now left Donbas, probably for ever. Old men will not rebuild much..and the young win out in the end.

My father used to tell me in Soviet times, on polling days extra food was frequently distributed, [and expected too]  Normally scarce white bread would surprisingly appear! What a treat!

 crowd of voters gathers outside a polling station near a pile of vegetables that can be bought for less than 10 cents after they cast their ballots on Sunday.

Must-see video on Russia's disinformation war

An absolutely must-see Legatum Institute presentation:

"The Menace of Unreality: Combating Russian Disinformation in the 21st Century "

Starts 29 minutes into this youtube video here.

Speakers:

• Geoffrey Pyatt, US Ambassador to Ukraine, 
• Oleksander Scherba, Ambassador at Large, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ukraine
• Michael Weiss, Editor-in-Chief, The Interpreter
• Peter Pomerantsev. Journalist and Documentary Producer
• Anne Applebaum, Director of the Transitions Forum, Legatum Institute

p.s.Also well worth watching, this video of a discussion with journalist Oliver Bullough and Anthea Lawson of Global Witness entitled: 

"Looting Ukraine: The East, the West and the Corruption of a Country" 

 

Composition of the new Verkhovna Rada

This is an excellent diagram of the configuration of forces in the new parliament.
[Source]

Most journalists axiomatically believe Opposition Bloc, will form a fraction of around 100+ deputies in the new parliament, and that it will be "pro-Russian".

But this may or may not be completely true. Opposition Bloc is not pro Donetsk People's Republic or Luhansk Peoples's Republic - they are  not separatists and have declared they will continue to work for an united Ukraine.

No major figure from former president Yanukovych's coterie or from Party of Regions, and no Ukrainian oligarch can be found in the upper eschelons of the DPR or LPR.

President Yanukovych refused to sign the Ukraine/EU Association Agreement because of tremendous pressure from Russia to boycott Ukrainian goods, including manufactured goods from eastern Ukraine, and to break the back of industries in that region. After invading Ukraine and trashing much infrastructure, such pressure can no longer be applied by Putin - the damage has been done.  Donbas oligarchs have nowhere else to turn but westward - their financial and industrial might, although much reduced after Russia's proxy-led invasion, is too great for them to remain in serious opposition for long. They know which direction the wind in now blowing and will be constantly attempting to cook deals with the new authorities for their own benefit.

There are reports that both of the two leading parties in the new parliament, People's Front and Poroshenko Bloc, are already working hard to recruit successful single-mandate deputies, [many of whom are outwardly independent but are from the PoR stable], into their own ranks in order to gain stronger hands in the formation of a new government. In total there is 94 such single-mandate deputies.

I suspect quite a few will be recruited.. for the sake of personal expediency, for guarantees of immunity, for money etc. etc.

Opposition Bloc will enter VR but be impotent? [Update]

So 'Opposition Bloc is expected to be the fourth largest party in the new Verkhovna Rada. They should gain a minimum of 30 seats - and probably more if some deputies in single mandate constituencies join them.

There are suspicions that President Poroshenko and his associates gave Opposition Block an 'easy run' in regained territories in Donbas  - possibly part of a under-the-table deal between Poroshenko and Putin. Pro-Russian elements in Ukraine will now have at least some representation in the VR and  may make Putin a little bit more amenable in any resolution of the current crisis. Some experts even hint this perhaps may be not a bad thing.

There could be substance to these suspicions.

There is lots of 'prima facie' evidence than many on Opposition Bloc's list have been involved in vast fraud and corruption schemes in the past and should be facing criminal charges. Everyone in Ukraine has heard about the Opposition Bloc leader Yuriy Boyko's involvement in the skimming of of hundreds of millions of dollars in the 'Vyshky Boyka' scandal. The fact that he is still 'in business' is a total disgrace.

Others in their ranks have inexplicably acquired great wealth also.  [See previous blog].

Serhiy Klyuyev, who will enter the new parliament has had his business assets seized abroad, and is probably under investigation.

But the Opposition Bloc will always be on tenterhooks, and will have to co-operate with the President - as they have already pledged to do.

The reason for this is the new VR could vote to remove their immunity from prosecution. Those who voted for scandalous laws on January 16 earlier this year, [which would have turned Ukraine into a Yanukovych-led dictatorship], and will now return to the new parliament, could face criminal charges.

Poroshenko will have plenty of kompromat on these guys to threaten them with if necessary.

Update: Ukrainska Pravda provide more information in an article "Elections in Donbas - betrayal of the authorities" about the corrupt manner in which discredited and corrupt Yanukovych 'old-guard' allies have again entered the new parliament...with the tacit approval of Poroshenko?

Poroshenko will be under pressure from Putin to ensure a Russia-friendly premier and cabinet is appointed...but the result was clear- Ukrainians absolutely do not want this.

p.s. FT Beyond Brics seem to agree, in parts, with your humble blogger in this article today.

Many of the Opposition Bloc 'big knobs' are not natural politicians at all, rather their main aim is survival and minimising the rapid diminution of their assets. They much prefer making back-room deals than standing on a box addressing a sceptical electorate...and they know that in the so-called Luhansk and in the Donetsk People's Republics they are finished..They have nowhere else to go.

Ukrainian forces in good shape in Mariupol, says Shuster

Gordonua.com run an interview with one of Ukraine's most well known television journalists - political show host Savik Shuster.

Shuster, who has had a most interesting and colourful career in many countries, had spent a day in Mariupol.

Here is a portion of his observations from the piece which was entitled:

"Shuster: It will be a surprise for Putin that the 'Russian World' in south-eastern Ukraine is braced to fight against Russia"

- What are your impressions from your visit to the Anti Terrorist Operation area?

- I came back last night, and have not yet fully comprehended and thought over everything, but was absolutely impressed by three things.

Firstly, I saw the real Armed Forces of Ukraine - a powerful, organized and cohesive force. It is  constantly being alleged that the Ukrainian army is weak and demoralized. In Mariupol I did not experience this, rather I felt the opposite: Ukrainian forces are of an incomparably higher standar than those I have seen in other military conflicts in the former Soviet Union - and I was in Chechnya, Ossetia, Abkhazia and Karabakh. In Mariupol the armed powers of Ukraine are really organized. That's impressive.

- What else impressed you at the front line?

- Morale. The guys are driven by patriotism. In Kyiv they do not understand this and  they do not understand the circumstances in which Ukrainian ATO fighters now live and fight.

But most importantly, I felt Putin now has great problem. The Russian president does not understand that the "Russian World", which he expects to rise up in Mariupol, will fight against Putin. In the city most people speak in Russian, but they have a maximum pro-Ukrainian outlook. I think for Putin this will be a great surprise, because he is still convinced that the south-east of Ukraine is for Russia. Its nothing of the kind. The Ukrainian Russophone world is against Putin, against his fighters and against Russian aggression.

Although Shuster does not provide an answer how this war against Ukraine will end, he does conclude: "Intuition tells me Russia will never conquer Mariupol."

p.s . Check out this short RFE/RL video [in English] on the kitsch palaces of two Yanukovych-era 'Naftohaz Ukrainy' executives who cannot explain the origin of their families' spectacular wealth but are now running for parliament - and immunity from prosecution.

Colder weather adds to despair in Donbas

Citizens, e.g. in the village of Spartak, near Donetsk, are in despair, as can be seen in this sad video.  Out of 5000 residents, less than 400 remain. There has been no electricity, gas or running water for five months as shelling continues...

Until now the weather in Ukraine this autumn has been warm, but a check on the weather forecast shows that by the weekend daytime temperature in Donetsk will drop to low single digit figures centigrade, whilst -4 and -5 centigrade is expected at night.

The coming of frosts will probably attenuate the intensity of armed conflict as fighters expend more effort to survive the cold...a small blessing

German Intelligence Claims Pro-Russian Separatists Downed MH17 [Updated]

Der Spiegel claims German Intelligence Claims Pro-Russian Separatists Downed MH17

This story will run and run...

p.s. Watched President Poroshenko's being interviewed last night by several Ukrainian journalists. Compared with the stilted, artificial and sycophantic televised press conferences held by Yushchenko and Yanukovych, this was  a proper question and answer session of the sort citizens of any normal western democracy would be familiar with. So, a step in the right direction.

Poroshenko explained one dilemma which was complicating agreement on gas deliveries from Russia. Consumers in the territories held by separatists/terrorists were consuming gas as normal, but Naftohaz Ukrainy [who are responsible for collection of revenue and liable for payment to Gazprom] was not receiving any payment for it, so this was an additional burden for Ukraine to bear. Poroshenko claimed industrial output in these occupied regions was down 70%, and their future as independent but unrecognised entities is not realistic or possible for economic reasons.

Interesting broadcast today on the new English language 'Hromadske International today'. Check it out on YouTube

Professor Timothy Snyder states an "impending, huge humanitarian disaster" [40 minutes into the video] is likely this winter in parts of Eastern Ukraine.

Top journalists Noah Sneider and Christopher Miller who both have spent many days in the region agree with this assessment and add that only brave and determined volunteers are working hard to try and prevent this happening. Should an international humanitarian effort not have been priority #1 in Milan?

Insightful analysis from inside 'Novorosisa'

Great analysis from Ollie Carroll, who has been in separatist-held territory for quite a few days now, posted on his facebook page

His conclusions?

"...if "Novorossia" [will] be unable to provide for its people [i.e. to get through the winter], opinion will move very radically against them."

"..the Russian strategy for me? Keep the DNR / LNR soup simmering, while you get back to the main deal: pressure-cooking Kyiv."
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Kyiv has made it clear it will not provide serious funds to sustain and repair the separatist-held territory 'except where there is a Ukrainian flag flying'. The country is all but broke in any case so the possibility of Kyiv paying for any major welfare or regeneration programmes is remote.

And, as Vitaliy Portnikov says, if Putin wants to maintain its influence on this territory which is now being run by his loyalist thugs, or even if he replaces them with saner politicians picked from the local traitors, it will cost Russia a deal of money - we are talking about a war-ravaged infrastructure and millions of people.

But even if does Putin pump the money in, a big if, this being Russia, most of it will be misappropriated in any case.

As I mentioned in my previous blog...a serious humanitarian crisis in Donbas is likely. Those who will suffer most will be the elderly, the infirm, women with young children whose husbands/boy friends have dumped them.... i.e. those least able to fend for themselves.

A terrible warning for Donbas from 2006

This is from the current Wikipedia entry on Alchevsk, a heavily industrialised city in the Luhansk Oblast of eastern Ukraine which has been under the control of separatists since April.

"Winter disaster of 2006

On January 22, 2006, the district heating system of the city almost entirely collapsed after an underground heat pipe line cracked in unusually cold weather (nearly −30 °C). As a result, heating equipment in the majority of Alchevsk's buildings was frozen and ruptured, leaving about 60,000 residents with only the protection of individual electric heaters. A few days later the sewage system also froze due to a lack of warm tap water.

An investigation revealed the massive, long-time negligence of the city authorities. The whole heating system was designed in a hyper-centralized way, depending on only two boilers and few main pipelines. Moreover, the housing company failed to react to the pipe incident properly: the water from the system wasn't immediately dumped to prevent further freezing.

The Ukrainian government took massive emergency actions to protect Alchevsk residents from freezing. Engineering teams sent by cities and industrial companies from other regions of the country were gradually restoring heating appliances in every apartment affected. Hundreds of children together with their schoolteachers were evacuated to the resorts and hotels in the warmer regions of Ukraine. According to the governor of Luhansk Oblast G. Moskal, it has been the worst human-made disaster in the history of independent Ukraine."

The Ostrov website reports that Donetsk regional council deputy Vitaly Kropachev is now strongly advising those who remain on the territory controlled by terrorist/separatist organizations to urgently leave, otherwise they will die in winter from cold and hunger. 

He provides a detailed analysis of the dire situation that exists in the public services sector which he stressed has now reached the point of collapse. Kropachev believes when the cities of Donbas begin to freeze the leaders of the separatists will 'do a runner' and abandon the citizens of these cities to their fate. He says malnutrition amongst some residents is already a problem. 

Ostrov also mentions the 2006 disaster, but on that occasion the Ukrainian government saved the day. 

Ceasefire in Ukraine is a Mirage

Brilliant analysis from Chatham House:

"Ceasefire in Ukraine is a Mirage"

Putin imaged taking the Donbas would be a straight forward re-run of the taking of Crimea. Ukrainians, including, most importantly millions of Russian-speaking Ukrainians, have fought back fiercely to defend their country. Ukrainians will continue to fight and defend their country - this is the biggest reason Putin has eased off his assault.

'Догнать и перегнать' - 'catch up and overtake', was the catch phrase sometimes used by Soviet Communists..If Russia is to succeed in this aim its economic growth must exceed that of neighbours in the years to come. Close co-operation with neighbours is vital because Russia on its own lacks expertise and resources in fields such as scientific and technological research and development, in marketing, banking etc. which have to be shared. Its economy in which extraction of hydrocarbons and minerals predominate is most unbalanced. Tackling rampant corruption is vital component if progress is to be made. Smart money essential for investment is already draining away at a precipitous rate.

Putin's adventure in Ukraine significantly adds to the country's problems and will turn out to be a disaster for its people, perhaps quicker than anyone imagines. And it must always be remembered the Ukrainians who have suffered the greatest hardship from this calamity are those from the Donbas region.

"Putin's Kleptocracy: Who Owns Russia?"

Watch this riveting hour and one and one half video presentation by Karen Dawisha at the Wilson Center, Washington DC, in which she talks about her important new book:

 "Putin's Kleptocracy: Who Owns Russia?" 

She suggests near the end that one of the reasons for Russia's invasion of Ukraine was that with the flight of Yanukovych,  major assets in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea owned by Russian billionaires tied to Putin could no longer be considered safe.

p.s. The Donetsk 62.ua site considers that continued fighting at the city's airport suits both sides of the conflict. While Kyiv forces engage and resist the separatists there, it relieves pressure elsewhere.

Why Donetsk airport is so important

BBC's Daniel Sandford posted this photo today of the now devastated Donetsk International Airport. It had been built from scratch just a few years ago.

Despite the ceasefire signed in Minsk fighting for the airport has been prolonged and fierce - the Kremlin-backed separatists have brazenly continually attacked it with ever more heavy weaponry, and it has now become an almost totemic target.

Threats of further EU sanctions against Russia if separatists were to gain the airport have not deterred the attackers.

Former head of Ukrainian Intelligence, Mykola Malomuzh explained on Espreso.tv why the airport is so strategically important to the the Kremlin and the Donetsk People's Republic separatists.

He says the Russian military intend to use it as a major forward base in order to threaten Ukraine further. The build-up of Russian armed forces in Crimea and near Ukraine's easterly borders indicate such a possibility is still very much on the cards, despite the so-called ceasefire.

Ukraine's armed forces will soon have to decide soon whether to continue to defend the airport against ever increasing odds, or destroy as much of its infrastructure as possible before retreating.

Splintered Donetsk People's Republic structure means Somalia scenario is realistic

Several days ago 'The Economist' magazine pondered whether 'A Somalia scenario' awaits Eastern Ukraine where the Donbas "becomes a swathe of ungoverned territory harbouring bandits who cross into the rest of Ukraine to raid, kidnap and steal...or a "Transdniestria [type] region, where organised crime and corruption have flourished under a Russian-backed regime."

Anyone who thinks this is overdramatisation should read Yevhen Shibalov's article "Donetsk People's Republic' from the inside - a short primer" in the 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya'  newspaper. It explains why it will be so difficult for any normal authority to co-operate with DPR in any meaningful manner to restore order. Here's what he says:

Initially Russian special services and politicians, as well as many of the Donbas elite, and even some Kyiv figures had high hopes for the DPR project, but its chaotic structure and unpredictable and violent nature makes it almost impossible to know how to handle this monster.

The DPR is formed of two often opposing disparate wings - the 'sylovyky' [power people] wing, and the 'polityky'. The sylovyky military wing, which comprises mainly field commanders of varying types, certainly dominates. The sylovyky do not take orders from the polityky...but occasionally take account of their requests when it suits them.

The leadership of the DNR can be split into several groups and sub-groups.

First there are 'The Idealists' who supported the DNR project from the very beginning; they can be split into two sub-groups: The Republicans, and the Anti-Kyivites.

This group's initial aim was federalisation..but as the Kremlin committed more arms and financial resources and violence erupted, their ambitions grew...first to autonomy, and then to creation of a fully independent republic. However this was not what the Kremlin had in mind at all.

The Republicans are led by Andrei Purgin. Many of his supporters have done well for themselves, commandeering apartments... automobiles etc.

The Anti-Kyivite sub-group do not recognise the new authorities in Ukraine's capital, but are ready to accept Donbas remaining part of Ukraine on their own terms. Their leaders include Oleksiy Hranovskyi and Oleksandr Khryakov. Oleksandr Khodakovsky, a 'Vostok' field commander is also attached to this group.

The Idealists included some whose intention was to attach Donbas to Russia proper, but most of these have left the oblast as chances of this occurring fade.

Representatives of the Idealists take part in any negotiations with Kyiv and other parties.

A second significant group in DPR are 'The Betrayed'. These include those who feel betrayed by local elites in Donbas. Many had been members of sylovyk structures under Yanukovych e.g. DPR 'chief of police', form head of Donetsk economic crime unit, Oleh Dykiy, and the above-mentioned Khodakovsky who had been head of an 'Alpha' special forces unit. Amongst 'The Betrayed' are guys who feel betrayed by Ukraine proper, who had come from other parts of the country initially to fight against the DPR, but feel they have been let down, so have switched loyalty to DPR.

A third significant group in the DPR are The Parachutists and Imports from Russia who look down upon the Idealists, but as the chances of Donbas linking up with Russia proper recede, this third group's influence is receding too. Their main man was Vladimir Antyufyeyev, formerly of ex-TransDnistrian security services, but he has now left Donbas. The Parachutists still fulfil a role of co-ordinating supply of arms and humanitarian aid to the region from Russia.

The final group in DNR are the 'crazies' who participated in many serious human rights violations, who have nowhere else to go. They include local thugs and gangsters, foreign mercenaries, 'volunteers', looters, adrenalin junkies etc. They operate in small unorganised units and are accountable to no-one.

The current head of the DPR Oleksandr Zakharchenko has great difficulty coordinating all of these disparate groups. He allegedly recently survived an assassination attempt when the car he was travelling was flipped over. His state of health is unknown. Many of his close team have now left the Donbas oblast.

And amongst this lot of vipers are millions of normal everyday Donbas citizens who just want some peace and quiet and stability, and are not overtly concerned who will be in power. Many have descended into a deep apathy...just  waiting for things to end. Those who can have left, perhaps to seek a better life elsewhere.

Will EU call Gazprom's bluff?

A trilateral meeting on gas issues between Ukraine, the EU and Russia is due to take place on Friday September. 26.

The German "Handelsblatt" newspaper reports that Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak has threatened to stop the supply of gas to Europe if some consumer countries re-export gas to Ukraine in its hour of need.

Both Russia and the EU are well aware, both as gas supplier and gas consumers, they are absolutely, irrevocably linked. As Owen Matthews in 'Newsweek' explains: "An all-out gas war between Europe and Russia would be the economic equivalent..... “of the old MAD thinking”—MAD being the Cold War acronym for the mutually assured destruction that would follow a nuclear strike. "

So when are individual European countries going to smarten up their act and finally call Russia's bluff?

EU gas utility companies can stop taking back-handers from Gazprom and take control of purchase of Russian gas in a co-ordinated and synchronised manner in order to obtain the best possible single price, most importantly, at the Russian-Ukrainian border. They can sort out further transportation and storage down the line amongst themselves.

It can be done, if the political will exists. Europeans have to sort this out ASAP otherwise they will continue to be blackmailed  by the Kremlin.

Meanwhile Ukrainians, in extremis, will not allow their children and grandparents to freeze in their apartments and houses whilst vast quantities of gas flow through their country.

Could turn out to be quite a battle of wills...

Yatsenyuk at Council on Foreign .Relations.

Listen to this 60 minute conversation with PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk at the Council for Foreign Affairs about the extremely complicated and difficult situation in which Ukraine finds itself.

Yevtushenkov's arrest, war in Donbas, and Putin

Vladimir Yevtushenkov, one of Russia's richest men, was placed under house arrest a couple of days ago accused of money laundering. There were suggestions this was primarily an asset grab instigated by Igor Sechin, a close ally of Vladimir Putin.

However Vitaliy Portnikov in Liga.net explains that the arrest may be linked to Putin and his war in Donbas.

Here is a summary of what he has to say:

Yevtushenkov had been building up a web of business and other interests in Ukraine over several years, and had been close to former president Viktor Yanukovych. It was Yevtushenkov who was making offers to the former president "that he could not refuse" in order he scuttle the Association Agreement so carefully constructed between the EU and Ukraine.

But most importantly, Yevtushenkov was the main oligarch standing behind Konsyantin Malofyeyev, about whom I have previously written.

Malofyeyev was one of the main organisers of the invasion and coup in Crimea - the "Orthodox oligarch" obsessed with the restoration the Russia's former empire. He generously financed the separatists/terrorists in the self-proclaimed Luhansk and Donetsk republics, and is allegedly the main sponsor of arms purchases and the paymaster for Russian volunteers/mercenaries currently operating on Ukrainian territory. It may also be that Yevtushenkov was the conduit through which Yanukovych provided operational funding to the separatists from the massive sums he had stolen from Ukraine's budget.  Nevertheless, the overarching mastermind behind the occupation of Crimea and the war in Eastern Ukraine was, and is Vladimir Putin.

In recent weeks Putin and Poroshenko have been holding closed consultations to somehow de-escalate the situation in the Donbas.

[Note: What is being discussed is very hush-hush. Some noted observers like Sonya Koshkina have already declared: "the authorities are making the same fateful mistake as Viktor Yanukovych's team. That mistake is the deficit of openness". E.g. the text of the Minsk declaration was only leaked after several days, and then by OSCE sources..Voting in parliament for new laws providing special status for Ukraine's two easternmost oblasts took place in a closed session...in highly dubious circumstances etc.]

Part of these Putin-Poroshenko negotiations resulted in the unexpected postponement of the implementation of the economic part of the Association Agreement. According to Portnikov, Yevtushenkov's arrest may also be linked to these negotiations, .

If Putin really wants to deprive the militants/terrorists in the Donbas freedom of manoeuvre, he must not only get them to withdraw, but must also cut off their sources of funding.

Yevtushenkov's detention may be a signal that from now on only Putin, and nobody else decides further operation of the Moscow-controlled mercenaries in Donbas. Hitherto this has not been the case. The separatist fighters will begin to understand they can only rely on the ruler in the Kremlin.

What most Ukrainians feel in their hearts

Despite today's voting in the Verkhovna Rada granting self-rule and amnesty to Donbas separatists, most Ukrainians would strongly agree with VR deputy Inna Bohoslovka when she declares:

"I did not vote for the law on special status for certain regions of the Donbas.

I will never forgive those who killed, tortured and dares to further torment my fellow Ukrainian countrymen. I will fight them until the last of them will be sentenced or killed."

Bohoslovska was a Party of Regions deputy until end of November 2013..and is a friend of Ukraine's top oligarchs.

At the start of this year she accurately predicted the advent of the plague exported from Russia that has now enveloped eastern Ukraine.

The "special order of local governance in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts" is a grotesque joke...Does it cover the entire oblasts, or only those portions currently in the hands of separatists? Will towns liberated from separatists again be terrorised by those who have already tortured, kidnapped and murdered their citizens and looted their property?

Poroshenko has been forced to throw millions of Ukraine's citizens into the clutches of lawless cut-throats who have been given carte-blanche to do as they will.

 This was a black day for the EU and a black day for Ukraine..Dark days await....

And for those in Donbas who may have supported the separatists? What kind of victory have the last few months fighting produced for them? What future awaits them? Who is going to fix the huge damage? Russia is not interested...As for Kyiv - the treasury is bare.

The Yanukovych years will be just a pleasant memory.

Get better soon, Ksenia

Russian Journalist Hospitalized After Violent Street Attack

Ksenia Batanova, a producer with Dozhd, Russia’s only independent television news channel, is recovering after unknown assailants fractured her skull. The channel has devoted significant resources to covering Russia’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict and struggled against government pressure.

Watch this brief and most engaging youtube clip of Ksenia talking to camera about herself...what a beautiful person...what a dreadful, cruel crime...