Price rises

This post from the Financial Times confirms what we have been feeling here on the ground:

Ukraine's government faces mounting difficulties coping with the impact of the recent raising of gas prices by Russia, amid signs of growing inflation and declining economic growth.

Official figures published on Friday showed consumer prices had risen 3 per cent in the first two months of 2006 - an
annualised rate of 19 per cent. Earlier data showed weak GDP growth in January of 0.9 per cent.

We have been noticing a rise in prices. A rate of close to 20% a year would be disastrous for people here. Just another little fact that argues that the present administration's efforts have been mighty disappointing. So much power early on to do something, so much promise--most of it squandered. And what is left is rising prices and inflation.

Yanukovych has to do nothing but point up at the scoreboard.

"Election to be rigged" says the expert.

This is what passes for brains in the Yanukovych faction:

Leader of the Party of Regions of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych has accused the
authorities of preparing massive falsifications in the upcoming parliamentary elections in all Ukrainian regions.

"The authorities have developed a scheme for massive falsifications of the elections in all regions of Ukraine, without exceptions. The Orange team needs massive falsifications to remain in power and start wholesale privatization of impoverished Ukraine right after the elections," Yanukovych said at the 9th congress of the Party of Regions in Kyiv on Saturday. (Interfax and I don't have a link to it yet.)

That's the way you do it. Discredit an election that it looks like you'll do well in. That will lay the groundwork for, what?, a court challenge of the election in which you do well?

They used to joke in my neck of the Texas woods (OK, hill country with mesquite trees and cactus) about Texas A&M. The joke goes, "Texas was playing A&M when the gun went off for the half. Ten plays later, A&M scored a touchdown."

Really, if it weren't for the no-show Our Ukraine et al, this wouldn't be much of an election contest. Alas, the facts on the ground are what they are.

UPDATE: The Moscow Times reported this.

LEvko comments: There's quite an amusingly written report on last Saturday's PR 9th Congress in Kyiv at http://www.pravda.com.ua/ru/news/2006/3/6/38421.htm As you say Scott, it requires a special kind of moron to cast doubt on the legitimacy of an election he will most likely win. There again, if the upper echelons of your party are loaded with guys like former head of the Central Election Commision Kivalov, who attempted to fix the the 2004 Presidential Elections...it's probably the only tune he knows. The main theme of the congress was indeed to accuse the authorities of planning mass falsifications.

The article congratulates Yanukovych's spin doctors for teaching him the words to the Ukrainian national anthem. Its authors note that sang the words, 'our enemies will die like dew in the sun, we will rule brothers, in our own land,' with particular gusto. His speech was, for Ukrainian politicians, an unbelievably short 14 minutes; and his idiot-proof script, which the authors photographed, contained every single word he uttered, including, 'Thank you, Ivan Vasylovych..'

At least the spin doctors included quite a good joke from the days of Brezhnev for Kushnaryov, Yanukovych's campaign chief: "If you want to feel sated, switch on the refrigerator, and switch on the radio when President 'clean-hand's is speaking."

More sinister was Andrey Kluyev, who was overheard saying to a fellow delegate: 'There is no third alternative: Either we [do] them [in], or they [do] us [in].'

Sweet words butter no parsnips..

In his regular radio address last Saturday Pres. Yushchenko stated categorically that there will be no further reprivatisations, and promised to improve the investment climate further. "My team will make every effort to renew dialogue between the government and businesses, which was complicated by rash statements made by the former government on reprivatisation. Ukraine has an attractive investment climate, but needs a lot of work to improve it even more."

Investment in the Ukrainian economy in 2005 was a record $7.8Bn, he claimed. The greatest achievement over this period was "stability," and the first results of the reforms which have been started will be felt in a year's time.

Meanwhile Minister of Internal Affairs, Yuriy Lutsenko, admitted recently that the task of distancing oligarchic clans from the state administration has not yet been achieved. He stated that business groups operating under the 'krysha' of the previous government stole over $4Bn from Ukraine, and that the previous Prosecutor General Svyatoslav Piskun consciously hindered criminal investigations into these matters. [Odd then that Piskun was only fired by Yushchenko in October last year].

According to Lutsenko most serious were the activities of the Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kyiv clans - he is convinced that they all employed groups of 'warriors' and hit-men. He says he has met with the leaders of these clans - Akhmetov, Surkis, Pinchuk, and representatives of Kolomoyskyi, and told them, "they must renounce criminal links, cease their machinations, and keep away from politics." [That really must have got them worried...] But after decisive actions [of his people], "untouchable organized criminal groups no longer exist in Ukraine."

In just over three week's time, after the VR elections, Piskun, Akhmetov together with a coterie of supporters, and others will be elected to parliament - the grip on power of Donetsk clan in particular will be strengthened. Yet neither Yushchenko nor Lutsenko are warning the electorate of the dangers these men pose. Why?

US law firm's clumsy attempt to gag media

On 19th February Rinat Akhmetov walked into the spotlight at a widely broadcast glitzy presentation in the Dontesk Theatre of Drama, and launched his political career. As #7 on the PR election list, his entry to the VR as a leading PR deputy is a dead cert. Some even see him as a future Prime Minister.

A few days later an appeal court in Donetsk started hearing statements from a former police major, Vyacheslav Sinenko, who is accused of the attempted killing in 1995 of Akhat Bragin, a Donbas 'kriminalnyi avtorytet' and close associate of Akhmetov. Sinenko alleged Akhmetov was involved major crimes, and was behind an assassination attempt on himself. His statements were reported in several publications.

There have also been several investigative articles particularly on the net, about the murkier periods in the '90's when Akhetov's rise to prominence ran concurrently with the killings of leading Donbas businessmen.

Now Akhmetov's lawyers, the Washington-based Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld, amongst the biggest hitters in the business, are putting the squeeze on the 'Ostrov' website, accusing it of spreading slanderous statements and blackening their client's name.

'Ostrov' have responded pointing out 'Freudian slips' in the law firms' letter, which includes the following: "the false accusations by Sinenko, which were published several times by 'Ostrov' include a statement that Mr Akhmetov was involved in the killing of Bragin."

'Ostrov' have never in fact stated this on their website - they scorn the US law firm for their legal illiteracy, and accuse them of attacking free speech in Ukraine. [There is some evidence published elsewhere that Bragin may have actually been killed by members of a rival gang].

In democratic countries anyone entering public life knows their past will surely be raked over. Akhmetov will be accompanied into the VR after the elections by several dozen close business associates who are also on the PR list, and thus he will be in a position of great political influence. It is up to the Ukrainian electorate to decide whether he is fit be there. The electorate have a right to know about Akhmetov's past and how he rose to the lofty position of Ukraine's leading businessman. The investigations will continue.

NSNU's lacklustre campaign

Unian report that Yanukovych addressed 20,000 people in the centre of Karkiv, Ukraine's second-biggest city, today [Thursday]. Even though they say most of those present were bussed in, and that a portion of the crowd drifted away at the start of the presentations, it was not a bad turn-out.

I've blogged previously about Tymoshenko's 'travelling roadshow' which has also drawn quite large attendances.

But where are NSNU?
A commentator in 'Ukrainska Pravda' complains of the lack of interest by the orange parties in campaigning in eastern and southern Ukraine, and of absence of sincere dialogue with electors there. All this is demoralising for the 'orange' portion of the electorate in those regions, who feel let down since the orange revolution. 'You just have to explain [to the folks in these regions] that they are important to Ukraine..' he pleads.

Dmytro Vydryn, a wily Ukrainian 'political consultant' [and now BYuT VR candidate] in an interesting interview in 'Kyiv Post' claims that after the elections, there is a 60% chance of a RU-NSNU coalition, and 40% chance of a NSNU-BYuT coalition. He speculates that negotiations have been going on between NSNU and RU since last August-September. Maybe that's why NSNU's campaign is so lacklustre - they know that the result is a done-deal, so why bother?

US, Ukraine clinch WTO deal

That the US and Ukraine have concluded WTO accession negotiations is a bit of a shock. Ukraine hasn't passed all the legislation that would make it WTO friendly, but I guess the US feels that they are doing or have done enough to be able to conclude the negotiations.

I think it is a political calculation though rather than an instance of Ukraine meeting the requirements. The fact is that Ukraine has not done enough in areas like intellectual property to really satisfy US interests. A simple visit down to Petrivka market will disabuse anyone of that idea. Current run movies are available there much as they have always been and the prices are still cheap--unless something has happened in the past month or so since we were down there. No, I think the US is doing this right now to help prop up the Yuschenko government and that is not a bad thing. It is something the US government could do and it has done it and should be congratulated for it. Now Ukraine needs to step up and make it real.

Mysterious suicides with rubber bullets....

Several days ago I blogged about recent events at the Irpin State Tax Academy during which a sacked and reinstated former rector, Petro Melnyk, together with a bunch of 'associates' forced their way back into the Academy. They were accompanied by several hundred flag-waving PR activists, and some reports said that Melnyk was being protected by 50 private security men.

Melnyk is a local PR big-shot, and well-placed on their VR election list, so has a good chance of getting into the VR after the March 26th elections.

Today NTN TV ran a curious story - "Head bodyguard of ex-rector of Tax Academy found dead." Roman Lotyuk was found dead by his mother last Thursday. Police say that Lotyuk committed suicide by "shooting himself in the head with a rubber bullet." The results of the autopsy report are unknown, but Lotyuk's friends are sceptical about the initial statements. Earlier the State Tax Service had accused the security firm for whom Lotyuk worked of illegal forcible seizure of the Irpin Tax Academy.


Note: Just over a year ago the boss of the Artyomovsk Champagne factory, who was a leading Donetsk businessman and regional government deputy, also accidentally shot himself with rubber bullets from his own gun.

And as everyone knows, there has been several other high profile 'suicides' since the Orange Revolution too.

More BYuT

It looks like Yulia is dominating the downtown area this week. We had a member of our extended family who went down to the Maidan an Our Ukraine supporter but came back a Tymoshenko supporter with a bag full of campaign literature.

One of the arguments supporters of Yulia are using is that the new poll has her ahead. "It makes no sense to vote for someone they aren't even talking about for Prime Minister." Yekhanurov, that is. "You'll simply waste your vote. If you vote for Yulia, she has a real chance to be Prime Minister. So vote for Yulia."

It's a bit specious that argument unless you think the polls came down from Mount Sinai. (LEvko has cautioned us about that.) Of course the echo chamber surrounding Yulia's campaign talks only of Tymoshenko and the nemesis Yanukovych. But a vote for Our Ukraine would yield the same potential, if of course, enough voted that way.

It does though look as if the campaign has heated up though.

LEvko comments: Even today's "Donbass" [the name says more or less everything about this newspaper] comments on the widely varying OP's.

The paper notes that if a working majority bloc is not formed after two months, the President may dissolve parliament and call fresh elections, and suggests this is the reason for vigourous behind-the-scenes activity between opposing parties.

One commentator compares the speculation on possible coalitions to: "dividing up the hide of a bear that hasn't yet been killed."

BYuT 'on a roll'?

Today [Monday] Yulia Tymoshenko was campaigning in Yanukovych's heartland - in Donetsk. She attended a press conference followed by a live TV appearance on a local station, and then held a rally attended, according to her own website by up to 10,000 people. The visit seems to have been a success in what was, until recently been very hostile territory for any member of the Orange camp. As she criss-crosses the country there is no doubt that her rallies and public meetings are well attended - photographs on the 'Batkivschyna' website attest to this.

So far, the NSNU campaign strikes me as being half-hearted and inept. Their problem is that unlike BYuT, they don't have a prominent leader now that Yuschenko, probably wisely, has distanced himself from the VR elections. Yekhanurov is not particularly popular and gives the impression that despite being a competent TV performer, he prefers to remain a 'behind the scenes' operator.

Yanukovych, by repeating memorized platitudes at a few safe venues, has not made any serious blunders in his campaign, apart from mixing up names of the odd candidate. Even some of his own supporters see him as rather a buffoon, and know in their hearts that the real power in PR lies elsewhere, although, like Tymoshenko, he enjoys campaigning and 'pressing the flesh'.

One OP indicates that 33% of the electorate want to see Yanukovych as PM, 29% support Tymoshenko, with Yekhanurov is at just 6%. This surely is bad news for NSNU.

Interfax reports: Kyiv, February 27 (Interfax-Ukraine) - Ukrainian President Viktor Yuschenko said that on March 26, voters will elect a new parliamentary majority, rather than a premier. "On March 26, Ukrainians will not elect a premier or a chancellor, but a new parliamentary majority," the president said in his weekly radio address on Saturday. "I believe this will be a democratic majority which will honestly represent millions of people, and which will defend the interests of Ukrainians and Ukraine, but not those of other countries," he said.

How little Yushchenko knows about politics..People need to know who the leader is to be, the person they entrust to lead the team who run the government on their behalf.

The electorate then, have a choice between the two most prominent leaders - Tymoshenko or Yanukovych.

Yanukovych himself confirms this, constantly directing fire at the Orange forces but rarely mentioning Yekhanurov, maybe because he is a stop-gap PM only. I doubt whether Yanukovych's minders would risk putting him 'head to head' against the quick-witted Tymoshenko on any live TV debate.

Tymoshenko is by far the most popular political figure amongst the Kyiv region electorate, which has often been the trendsetter in Ukrainian national politics. NSNU's most prominent members spend too much time and effort talking of coalitions, and Yekhanurov does not seen to have any stomach for political campaigning. All this adds to speculation that PR and NSNU have already cooked up a coalition deal that will be activated after the election.

So my hunch is that as the elections draw nearer, only 27 days to go now, there will be some drift back to BYuT by NSNU supporters, and maybe even an increase in support for BYuT in eastern, mainly pro-PR regions.

Questions and comments

I read all the comments and I know that some of them ask questions. We do though tend to be busy, busy, busy so we may not answer them in a timely manner. But maybe I can take care of some that I haven't had a chance to respond to:

1. Would it be helpful if Europe got involved in formulating an energy policy? It would because it it would help cement the tie to Europe. The problem though is that the policy would need to involve some changes in how the government does business. (There are lots of barriers to entry, for one thing.) Europe can help with this and so can the US but it will take Ukraine to get serious about it. I am always amused by Western experts who come in, help governments pass laws, and then leave with a hefty paycheck paid out of NGO funds. Problem is that it isn't so much the lack of law that is the issue as it is the fact that the law is what the one in power says it is. It has been said that there is no rule of law here. It would be more accurate though a bit toungue and cheek to say that there is rule of law except when it makes a difference. Europe and the US can have a say but it will take Ukrainians to make the changes needed.

2. There has also been some mention of the need for more of a civic society. This is true. There is a real need for a stronger civil society here and in Russia though Ukraine is much better off than Russia is on this. The problem though is again cultural. It is tough when most people here believe that the government is there to right all wrongs. The point is that people will petition the government for any problem that affects them from the large to the not so large. That this can be effective is one of the problems. To have a robust civil society there needs to be a sense that people themselves can make a difference. That is the spirit which dominated the OR on Maidan and a reason for being optimistic in the long run. But nothing is assured in the end and that cultural tendency tends to just get in the way.

Anyway, keep asking and we'll keep answering-- though it may take awhile.

Discredited Verkhovna Rada

On Friday a proposal by BYuT in the VR to strip criminal immunity from Ukrainian city hall council deputies failed to gain enough support and garner sufficient votes for further progress be made in this matter.

Former secretary of the of National Security and Defence Council, Petro Poroshenko highlighted the scale of the problem claiming, that because of current decrees, prosecutors are unable to bring to court 780 criminal cases involving such deputies.

BYuT complain their proposal in the VR was torpedoed by the combined efforts of NSNU, PR, and Communist deputies, and called their actions irresponsible. "Liquidation of automatic criminal immunity for deputies would have enabled cleaning out of bandits and villains from representative organs."

Immunity was assured for these guys when a memorandum of understanding was signed last fall by Yushchenko and Yanukovych. Revocation of such immunity for VR and City hall council deputies is one of BYuT's conditions for creation of a grand Orange coalition before the March 26th VR elections.

Thoughtful analysis "whether the Verkhovna Rada as an institution can be trusted with - or, more bluntly, is fit - to exercise its new, enhanced role [after the March 26th elections]" is provided in a recently published important article by Markian Bilynskyj, U.S.-Ukraine Foundation's Vice President and Director of Field Operations.

I have blogged previously about the type of individuals who may be elected to the VR in a few weeks time, and of possible instability of any likely coalitions.

"Accumulated arbitrary abuses and a perceived disdain for popular will by the presidency were the proximate causes of the Orange Revolution....Given the powerful dynamics working against the Rada reforming itself it might take a similar - although highly unlikely - popular expression of no-confidence to make the Rada finally take seriously its role as the principal Ukrainian representative and legislative body," concludes Bilynskyj.

Crime and politics [2]

"The Donetsk clan began its formation in the late 1980s and early 1990s. The first step took place in the settlement of Oktiabrsk in 1988. A local resident, Akhat Bragin, a man of "great authority" in both local official and underworld circles, took control of the local market. At that time, 22-year-old Rynat Akhmetov, a young man of Tatar nationality, was close to Mr. Bragin. Mr. Akhmetov, born in Donetsk in 1966, was noticed by many local men of authority for his quick mind and ability to get things done. Mr. Bragin kept him close and taught him the business of doing business Donetsk-style." 'The clan from Donetsk' - by Roman Kupchinsky

On 15th October 1995 Akhat Bragin, was spectacularly killed in an bomb explosion in the Shakhtar Donetsk football club stadium. Akhmetov, now the richest man in Ukraine, and according to observers, the Partiya Regioniv sponsor and #7 on their VR election list, is the current owner of the now greatly-expanded club.

According to an article on the Ostrov website, and elsewhere, on 22nd February 2006 an appeal court in Donetsk heard the preliminary statement of Vyacheslav Sinenko, a former police major, who is accused of the attempted killing of Akhat Bragin and others by means of an explosive device.

Sinenko [who himself survived and assassination attempt when he was shot in the hip on 5th May 1998] claimed:

• that he was framed for this crime by the former Donetsk Chief Prosecutor and former Prosecutor-General of Ukraine Gennadiy Vasilyev,
  
• that the true organizers of Bragin's killing were associates of Akhmetov,
  
• that he was persecuted after collecting and presenting evidence to Vasiliev,
• that the crime's prime suspect was a man called Rukhmanov, who he had apprehended but who was then released on the orders of Vasiliev,
  
• that his own death was "needed by Akhmetov because I held in my possession evidence against one of his 'warriors' Rukhmanov",
  
• that when he was in hospital recovering from his assassination attempt he 'spilled the beans' to an investigative TV journalist Igor Aleksandrov, who was murdered in July 2001. [A homeless man accused of killing Aleksandrov himself died in suspicious circumstances.]
  

Sinenko escaped to Greece, but on 30th March 2004 was detained in Athens and extradited to Ukraine a year later.

At a further court hearing on 23rd February Sinenko gave more details of his defence. He says that at the time of his investigation into the Bragin killing he met V.S Malyshev, the former head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs in Donetsk.

Malyshev told him: "Where the hell are you going with this, you idiot..?" Malyshev is now chief of security at Akmetov's SystemCapitalManagement, and well-placed on the PR parliamentary election list for the March 26th VR elections. Akhmetov is named on a list of witnesses in the trial.

Today Akhmetov's lawyers issued a statement: "The accusations directed at Mr Akmetov that appeared on 22nd February in several internet publications are nothing more than an attempt to accuse him of tragic events that were declared groundless by a court of law a long time ago. The authors of these slanderous and false statements will be held to account."

Update: The Ostrov article quoted above has now been translated into English here.

Some parties

There are a lot of parties here vying for seats in the Ukrainian Parliament, the Verkhovna Rada. They have to cross the 3% threshold to be able to have any seats at all. This means they will get 15 seats or they will get nothing. A lot of them will get nothing.

The Green Party is here something I didn't know. They threw green colored eggs in the VR the other day protesting something or other.

There's also a party of Putin here. Could it happen anywhere else?

The pensioners, the retirees, also have their own party.

And there are a lot of others. I may post something on the more interesting ones later.

One thing that's done here that has been done in Russia is that parties often fund opposition parties, that is parties that promote policies that the party doing the funding might not agree with. They do this to bleed the larger opposition party of support and votes.

So if there is a nationalist contingent that has made its home in a larger more diverse party, the opposition might fund a nationalist party to drain that support away. This also serves teh purpose of creating very large straw men to take swings at. Set them up to knock them down. "We are the party to save you from the nationalists that are marching with their fists in the air even as we speak." And they might have been funded by the very people taking aim at them.

It's all political technology as they say here. Uber-spin it might be called.

Crime and politics

On 31st January 2006 the Russian Ministry of the Interior website ran a story including the following:

<<The bloodiest Ukrainian gang traced in Moscow

The [Russian] Ministry of the Interior announced yesterday that it had apprehended members of the bloodiest and the most powerful Ukrainian gang, called "Donetsk Brigade", in Moscow over the weekend. This sting operation came after a two-year Russian - Ukrainian investigation that tried to eradicate the gang led by Georgian mafia boss Givi Nemsadze, a.k.a. Papa (Dad) and Givchick. According to Ukrainian security services, members of the "brigade" are responsible for at least 50 [un]solved[?] contract murders. And its leaders controlled about 200 major businesses at a time.>>

Until now Ukrainian media have not really picked up this story, but today the weekly 'Bez Tsenzury' have a big front-page spread entitled 'Gangs of Dontesk' with lots more on 'Givchick' and his gang. They make Scorsese's 'Goodfellas' look like 'Wallace and Gromit'.

According to the Ministry of the Interior 'top banana' in the Donetsk oblast, the members of the gang are suspected of having close links with state officials "of the highest rank," with parliamentary deputies, with candidates up for election to the new parliament, and, in particular, according to unofficial sources, with Rinat Akmetov.

Last year RFE/RL ran this: "Special-task force Berkut and an armored personnel carrier were involved in a search of the Donetsk-based firm Lyuks belonging to Ukrainian oligarch Rynat Akhmetov on 16 August, Ukrainain media reported. In July, Akhmetov failed to appear for questioning as a witness in a case related to a shooting in Donetsk in 1988. Ukrainian Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko suggested that Akhmetov may be arrested if he continues to evade investigators. Akhmetov is reportedly vacationing abroad."

The 'Bez Tsenzury' piece suggests that the Russian authorities are in no hurry to agree to Ukraine's request for their extradition, because they have in their hands a wonderful source of 'kompromat' which could be used as leverage on Akmetov and Yanukovych when [if] they come to power after the March 26th elections. Ex-minister for emergency situations Davyd Zhvaniya had already announced that Akhmetov had sold off a portion of his business empire to Russians. This may have been precipitated by blackmail threats from the Kremlin.

Givi Nemsadze, it seems was associated in the early '90's with a notorious Donetsk gang - the "Lyuks" gang. Curiously, the Partiya Regioniv VR election list includes at #66, a driver for a Lyuks Ltd, and at #84 the Lyuks Ltd General Director.

Re: Corruption

LEvko has made a couple of posts about the goings on at the National Tax Academy. It's more of the usual. But it does raise a point that bears keeping in mind, something I have mentioned before. That point is that whoever controls the right buildings controls the government. It was true before the OR and it is still true now.

For a brief time there was the possibility that this could be changed with Yuschenko. He actually was the de facto government during the OR governing from the street, governing on the strength of principles and the will of the people. But that time has passed. We're back to cronyism and corruption to get things done and that requires control of government buildings.

Corruption, Ukrainian-style

"Everybody knows that the dice are loaded
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed
Everybody knows that the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
That's how it goes..
Everybody knows that the boat is leaking
Everybody knows that the captain lied".....
Lyrics to "Everybody knows" ..Leonard Cohen

More information on the Irpin National State Tax Academy affair [on which I posted a couple of items previously] is provided on the Oligarch website, and reminded me of the Leonard Cohen song above. What a tangled web of corruption...

Petro Melnyk was sacked from his position of rector of the Ukrainian National State Tax Service Academy by its head Alexandr Kiryeev on 17th May 2005, for abusing his position and for financial irregularities. No criminal charges were made because the Prosecutor-General at the time was Sviatoslav Piskun - who also happened to be Melnyk's 'kum' [god-parent to his children, i.e. almost 'family']. Melnyk subsequently legally challenged the sacking, and was reinstated on the orders of a Kyiv court.

According to 'Oligarch' Melnyk had appropriated land formerly used as a Pioneer camp belonging to the academy, as well as a coffee shop that is now run by his sister. He had also provided himself with an Audi 8 company car from academy funds.

Piskun was fired from the position of P-G of Ukraine in October 2005 by Pres. Yushchenko, so Melnyk lost his 'krysha'. The head of the Academy Kiryeev appointed a new rector, Volodymyr Zahorskyi who - get this - is his 'kum!' The new management were seen later carrying out a safe and important documents from the academy.

Melnyk got a court to annul his sacking because he was signed off sick at the time, and according to Ukrainian law, could not be legally dismissed. [A commonly used loop-hole - reminds me of sick-notes at school]

He and his Partiya Regioniv pals then forced their way back into the academy last Monday. Now he claims that there was $250,000 in cash in the safe which has gone missing, the money apparently 'belonging to the 'Deka' marketing, research and consulting company, of which Melnyk was co-founder'.

Local police don't want to get involved because, 'After the 26th March, Melnyk will be elected deputy to the new Parliament', and will be 'fire-proof' - Parliamentary deputies being automatically provided with immunity from prosecution. Melnyk's 'kum' former P-G Piskun will probably be elected to the Ukrainian Parliament on the PR's list too, and no-one wants to 'fall out' with PR big shots right now because they may well be in power again after the elections.

As a post-script, here's something from the 'Maidan' website last October about the sacking by Piskun, of Oleh Levytskyy, Chief prosecutor of the Kirovohrad region, and others :

"Levytskyy is convinced that the main reason for the sackings is a criminal case opened recently which impinges on the business interests of senior state officials. He is quoted as saying: "The Kirovohrad Region prosecutor's office has encroached upon the business of the wife of Ukrainian Prosecutor-General Piskun, of the wife of the head of the Supreme Court of Ukraine, [Vasyl] Malyarenko, of the wife of the former minister and chief of the State Tax Administration, [Mykola] Azarov, as well of a relative of the prosecutor-general of Ukraine."

Update: The saga continues: In a piece on the 5-iy kanal website head of State Tax Administration Oleksandr Kiryeev told journalists that his children were not christened for a long while and he isn't anyone elses 'kum'. 50 private security men are protecting Melnyk, who has already fired ten or more lecturers and other staff at the academy. Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs have opened a case against Melnyk for hooliganism.

An agreement near?

Is an agreement between Our Ukraine and Tymoshenko in the offing? This article from Interfax says there is:

The pro-presidential bloc of parties OurUkraine has accepted a Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc's version of an agreement meant to set up a so-called Orange Coalition to run in the parliamentary elections in March, said Our Ukraine deputy campaign staff chief Roman Zvarych.

"It was not difficult because there are virtually no fundamental differences between our two projects," Zvarych said.

We'll see if it happens.

Partiya Regioniv showing their true colors?

Yesterday I wrote about events at the National State Tax Service Academy in Irpin', near Kyiv. The rector, Petro Melnyk, whose sacking had been revoked by a local court last week, organized the smashing in of doors ans windows of the Academy buildings accompanied by several hundred Partiya Regioniv demonstrators in order to gain access. A video of events can be seen on 5-iy Kanal website - he's the guy carrying a bouquet of flowers while the glass doors are being smashed!

Some reports claim that many of the demonstrators [including some skin-heads and thugs] were bussed in from other areas.

Melnyk, a local PR big-shot who is #143 on their March 2006 Parliamentary election list had been sacked for numerous legal transgressions, financial irregularities, and illegally agitating for Yanukovych amongst his students in the 2004 Presidential elections. At that time students in many higher educational establishments complained about pressure being applied on them in order they vote for Yanukovych.

The Ukrainian State Tax Administration, who I imagine run the academy condemned the court ruling reinstating Melnyk to his position of rector of the Academy, and will appeal against the decision. Today other reports say that Melnyk stayed overnight the Academy, and is constantly escorted by bodyguards.

Whatever the legal rights and wrongs of this case are, it is Melnyk and the PR who turned what should have been dealt with exclusively by courts and the police, into a political demonstration and show of strength. If he had been denied access to the Academy, then it is they should have handled the matter. As it was, Melnyk and his PR supporters showed their true 'bully-boy' colors. And the police were nowhere to be seen.

This may have been an attempt by PR to test the resolve of the pathetic law enforcement agencies. I wonder what a non politically orientated student of the Academy attending a lecture made of all of these events. Maybe it will serve as a reminder of what to expect if PR become the dominant political power after the VR elections.

Salt shortages and related psychoses--Russia

There is now a shortage of salt on store shelves in Russia. We have been hearing about this in the Ukrainian media but I didn't know it was this bad.

But this, this is just too much:

The current situation reveals the technologies of psychogenic action used in the field of public awareness. A person suffering from psychosis is guided by emotions only whereas his or her critical thinking is pushed into the background. As a result, a human being starts taking illusions for reality. That is why people do not believe state officials when they appear on TV screens or radio channels and say that the situation will soon be normalized. (Emphasis mine.)

Doesn't this sound like the good old days when a person took a position, let's say, contrary to the state's position, that person was considered to have a mental illness? Off to the ward with you. If you think that there might be some shortages from a potential Ukrainian retaliation for the gas problem and/or the dairy ban and the government says differently, well, that, of course, is the result of a psychosis.

Sounds like Pravda is back once again to the position that the truth is what the government says it is. It does have a kind of post modern ring to it in keeping with the age though. But is this not depressing?

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Some worrying violent incidents

The current Parliamentary election campaign, in contrast to the 2004 Presidential campaign, has so far produced few violent incidents. But there have been one or two straws in the wind..

According to unian, today in Irpin' near Kyiv, several hundred Partiya Regioniv activists stormed the National State Tax Service Academy, smashing doors and windows. Injuries were reported and some members of the accademy security team have been hospitalized.

The PR activists were escorting a previously dismissed rector, Petro Melnyk, even though his replacement had been legitimately elected. Melnyk who is also head of PR in the Kyiv region, was recently reappointed to his position by a court order, and is a 'kum' of the highly dubious ex-Procurator General Svyatoslav Piskun, now on the 'rogues gallery' PR electoral list.

Orange activists arrived to help protect the Academy. Though police had been warned of impending trouble, only 4 law-enforcement officers were present. Melnyk himself organized the storming of the building with some private security guys. He was last seen in the rectors office 'writing ukases' of dismissal.

A much more sinister event took place on February 11th when a freelance journalist was seriously assaulted near Donetsk. His condition is reported as being critical. An article written in English in IMI suggests that the attack could be connected to the murder of TV journalist Igor Aleksandrov in July 2001.

Also on 18th February a news agency office in Lviv was gutted. Arson is suspected. A similar, more serious incident occurred in 2004.

Hopefully these events are unrelated and not precursors of worse to come.