In my previous blog I noted that by early February 2014 a decision had been made in the Kremlin to dismember parts of Ukraine, even if Yanukovych had put down the Euromaidan and remained in power.
This was revealed in a recently leaked policy note or document which caused a stir in many newspapers and elsewhere several days ago.
Some independent Russian commentators have suggested such a document could have been produced by any one of several important Russian think tanks who were all gradually coming to the same conclusion - make a grab for Ukrainian sovereign territory.
Other commentators e.g from Cargegie.ru have their own opinions too:
I think this suggestion is the most likely:
"[Yanukovych]..might have decided to flee right at that time because the Russian representative [at a last minute meeting of western and Russian intermediaries] failed to put his signature next to the European ones. He may have interpreted Russia’s failure to sign the agreement as a signal that Russia didn’t believe the agreement would work out (which is exactly how Lukin and other Russian diplomats later explained their failure to sign the agreement). He thought that Russia no longer supported him in the Kyiv standoff, that Moscow had sold him out and now had its own plans unrelated to extending his presidential powers.
Having lost his only external ally, Yanukovych caved in and fled."
According to a "Guardian" piece from September 2013 "The Kremlin...warned Ukraine that if the country goes ahead with a planned [Association] agreement on free trade with the EU, it faces inevitable financial catastrophe and possibly the collapse of the state."
One of Putin's closest aides, Sergey Glazyev, said at the time, "Ukrainian authorities make a huge mistake if they think that the Russian reaction will become neutral in a few years from now. This will not happen."
"...if Ukraine signed the agreement, Russia would consider the bilateral treaty that delineates the countries' borders to be void."
Yanukovych was under constant, massive pressure at that time from the Russian authorities not to sign the Association Agreement deal with the EU, and declined to do so late November 2013.
During the Euromaidan which followed he must have felt he was doing all he possibly could to appease Putin. ..
But when he heard in early February that Putin was planning to ditch him and move into Ukraine, this was the last straw...He decided his time was up; he had to flee.
Update - Just read about the terrible assassination of Boris Nemtsov...a most charismatic man and true friend of Ukraine. What dreadful news.
Say a prayer for him.
We should never forget there are many fine Russians too....
Now maybe even more people across the globe will come to their senses and realise the direction in which Putin is leading his country.
Friday, February 27, 2015
Thursday, February 26, 2015
Is the leaked 'Novaya Gazeta' Kremlin policy note genuine?
The Polish PISM site provides excellent, sober analysis [in English] of the sensational leaked Kremlin policy note recently published in 'Novaya Gazeta', and elsewhere.
They claim "...the note provides a rather daring (if cynical) plan for stoking fake secession in Ukraine for the sake of subsequent takeover of the Eastern and Southern regions by Russia. This would be all started at the time when Yanukovych was formally still the president of Ukraine." [my highlight]
"After the Sochi Olympics Bohoslovska suggested there will be an attempt by Russia to 'nibble off' portions of Ukraine, particularly Luhansk and Kharkiv oblasts, and maybe Crimea. Kharkiv would be a big problem because although the local strongmen, Mayor Gennady Kernes and Regional State Administration head Mykhaylo Dobkin would be co-operative if such a turn of events were to occur, the local population, in particular, young students could react unpredictably. This scenario is being organised by Putin adviser Vladislav Surkov.."
1hr 33/34 min and onward into this video:
[Surkov, is one of Putin's closest and most trusted aides. He was recently accused of organising the Euromaidan killings... Bohoslovska is from Kharkiv]
The conclusion must be that most of Ukraine's upper political echelons, which included Bohoslovska, must have been very well aware that invasion by Russia was very probable, and that they were aware of this at least three weeks before Yanukovych's absolutely unpredicted and unexpected flight from office .
Bohoslovska's predictions of what she called a 'war between Russia and Ukraine' are markedly similar to the ideas expressed in the policy note, so confirming the leaked policy note is most likely genuine - thus debunking Russia’s claims that the uprisings in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine were a response to a "coup d’etat" organised by "US sponsored fascist/Banderite puppets" in order to topple a legitimately elected president.
p.s. All of this may explain why Yanukovych decided to abandon his office...He must have realised 'the game was up' and that Putin would not be his saviour. Yanukovych started making plans for evacuation soon after these interviews took place, the policy note written and Russia's aggressive actions toward Ukraine approved.
Friday, February 20, 2015
The 'spetsoperatsiya' of Putin's life
If you have a spare half hour do listen to this Brookings Institute podcast: [If nothing else then from about 41 minutes onward in particular.]
"Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin (and abroad)
With recent events in Ukraine and beyond, many policymakers and foreign policy analysts are asking what motivates Russian President Vladimir Putin. What shapes his policy decisions and how he views the outside world? Most importantly, officials in Washington and European capitals are left asking what Putin wants and how far is he willing to go. The great lesson of the outbreak of World War I in 1914 was the danger of misreading the statements, actions, and intentions of the adversary. Today, Vladimir Putin has become the greatest challenge to European security and the global world order in decades. Russia’s 8,000 nuclear weapons underscore the huge risks of not understanding who Putin is and what his aspirations are for himself and the people of Russia.
On February 18, the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings hosted a discussion with Fiona Hill and Clifford G. Gaddy, authors of the new and expanded edition of Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin. The authors explored Putin’s motivations and methods and dispelled potentially dangerous misconceptions about Putin."
Putin is a KGB operator through and through. He knows all about planning an operation. He has plans of action, but included in them are also alternative contingency plans to deal with problems is things do not work out quite as expected; he is therefore very difficult to predict.
Since coming to power he has created a unique system fusing intelligence with politics and the military and security branches of power. In the current Russian/Ukrainian hybrid war this system has come into its own.
This hybrid war is the operation of Putin's life...and he is relishing in it...loving it....
Also from about 1 hour 00 minutes onward into the podcast ..a brilliant, brutal description of how Putin views the rest of the western world and the relationship between the greater and lesser countries of the western world - whether they are truly sovereign or not. If you understand this, Putin [and Russians] become easier to read..
Western politicians and media continue to conveniently delude themselves. The Ukrainian crisis is not just about some disgruntled separatists in a far corner of the country. It is a 'spetsoperatsiya' inspired by, organised, funded and controlled by Putin an a handful of his colleagues. It is replete with 'maskirovka', lies, false trails, misleading declarations...at its core is the absolute need not to reveal its true aims. However, it is most reasonable to assume these are entirely destructive - to destabilise Ukraine, trash its institutions and turn it into a failed state.. Having encouraged Ukraine to join the western club, western nations now have an absolute obligation to prevent Putin accomplish his aims..
p.s. If you like listening to podcasts...then check out this... in which the brilliant Peter Pomarantsev explains why he may be Ukrainian too..
"Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin (and abroad)
With recent events in Ukraine and beyond, many policymakers and foreign policy analysts are asking what motivates Russian President Vladimir Putin. What shapes his policy decisions and how he views the outside world? Most importantly, officials in Washington and European capitals are left asking what Putin wants and how far is he willing to go. The great lesson of the outbreak of World War I in 1914 was the danger of misreading the statements, actions, and intentions of the adversary. Today, Vladimir Putin has become the greatest challenge to European security and the global world order in decades. Russia’s 8,000 nuclear weapons underscore the huge risks of not understanding who Putin is and what his aspirations are for himself and the people of Russia.
On February 18, the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings hosted a discussion with Fiona Hill and Clifford G. Gaddy, authors of the new and expanded edition of Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin. The authors explored Putin’s motivations and methods and dispelled potentially dangerous misconceptions about Putin."
Putin is a KGB operator through and through. He knows all about planning an operation. He has plans of action, but included in them are also alternative contingency plans to deal with problems is things do not work out quite as expected; he is therefore very difficult to predict.
Since coming to power he has created a unique system fusing intelligence with politics and the military and security branches of power. In the current Russian/Ukrainian hybrid war this system has come into its own.
This hybrid war is the operation of Putin's life...and he is relishing in it...loving it....
Also from about 1 hour 00 minutes onward into the podcast ..a brilliant, brutal description of how Putin views the rest of the western world and the relationship between the greater and lesser countries of the western world - whether they are truly sovereign or not. If you understand this, Putin [and Russians] become easier to read..
Western politicians and media continue to conveniently delude themselves. The Ukrainian crisis is not just about some disgruntled separatists in a far corner of the country. It is a 'spetsoperatsiya' inspired by, organised, funded and controlled by Putin an a handful of his colleagues. It is replete with 'maskirovka', lies, false trails, misleading declarations...at its core is the absolute need not to reveal its true aims. However, it is most reasonable to assume these are entirely destructive - to destabilise Ukraine, trash its institutions and turn it into a failed state.. Having encouraged Ukraine to join the western club, western nations now have an absolute obligation to prevent Putin accomplish his aims..
p.s. If you like listening to podcasts...then check out this... in which the brilliant Peter Pomarantsev explains why he may be Ukrainian too..
Monday, February 16, 2015
Time for SWIFT attack
"At present, they [corrupt Russian elites] control their accounts in Western banks anonymously through a chain of front firms, which are impossible to trace. But their operations are completely dependent on SWIFT for operation. All of current money-laundering and anonymization schemes are dependent on SWIFT. Other such operations simply do not exist at present, and new ones can not be developed in a month. Nor in six months, either. And it is not clear that they would be possible at all.
When disconnected from SWIFT, the [corrupt elite] will either have to give up control over their anonymous assets or assume a high risk of losing their anonymity." [Source]
A 'SWIFT attack' would be an an ideal highly targetted weapon with which to attack Putin and his cronies..
Tuesday, February 10, 2015
British Foreign Secretary speaks openly of 'Russian agression'
The British Foreign Secretary gave an update to House of Commons today on the situation in Ukraine
Here is a portion:
"In recent weeks Russia has aggravated the effects of its initial incursion by stepping up the military support it provides to its proxies. It has transferred hundred of heavy weapons, including rocket launchers, heavy artillery, tanks and armoured vehicles, and it maintains hundreds of regular soldiers, including Special Forces, in Ukraine, as well as command and control elements, air defence systems, UAVs, and electronic warfare systems. The Russian Army is also the source of ex-regulars, who resign their posts to fight in Donbas as “volunteers”. The recent escalation in fighting would not be possible without the military support and strategic direction that Russia provides.
In these circumstances it is vital that all those countries who have a stake in the rules-based international system remain clear and united against Russian aggression..."
Also
.."we share a clear understanding that while there is no military solution to this conflict, we could not allow the Ukrainian armed forces to collapse..." Sounds like a coded warning this..
But also a carrot: "...we will only agree to a relaxation of the pressure when we see clear evidence of changed Russian behaviour and a systematic compliance with Russia’s obligations under the original Minsk agreement."
Monday, February 09, 2015
Huge explosion in Donetsk tonight
A huge explosion ripped through Donetsk tonight. Videos of the blast here
It was probably an ammuntion dump blowing up.
Bur locals joke that it was freshly delivered Russian humanitarian 'tushonka' [dodgy canned stewed meat popular in Ukraine and Russia..] that had exploded...
There are some claims an ammo dump was hit by Ukrainian artillery...and a significant number of heavy weaponry also destroyed. Destruction is probably so great that a major attack on Ukrainian-held territory could be halted or at least seriously delayed.
p.s If you watch Russian television newsreels and analysis you would certainly receive the impression that chances of any ceasefire soon are very slim. The vilification and anti-Ukrainian and anti-West invective is off the scale..Moscow is gripped by madness worthy of Pyongyang....the nation is being prepared for the worst..
Tonight's 'earthquake' in Donetsk is perhaps the first bit of luck Ukies have had for quite a while.
It was probably an ammuntion dump blowing up.
Bur locals joke that it was freshly delivered Russian humanitarian 'tushonka' [dodgy canned stewed meat popular in Ukraine and Russia..] that had exploded...
There are some claims an ammo dump was hit by Ukrainian artillery...and a significant number of heavy weaponry also destroyed. Destruction is probably so great that a major attack on Ukrainian-held territory could be halted or at least seriously delayed.
p.s If you watch Russian television newsreels and analysis you would certainly receive the impression that chances of any ceasefire soon are very slim. The vilification and anti-Ukrainian and anti-West invective is off the scale..Moscow is gripped by madness worthy of Pyongyang....the nation is being prepared for the worst..
Tonight's 'earthquake' in Donetsk is perhaps the first bit of luck Ukies have had for quite a while.
Wednesday, January 28, 2015
Putin flipped?...or just playing the hard man
Following Putin's absurd claims yesterday [see previous blog] Brian Whitmore, in this absolutely must-read rferl article, ponders whether the Russian president is still capable of distinguishing fantasy from reality.
Whitmore concludes:
Nutty statements from Russian officials are so commonplace that we almost don't even notice them all anymore.
But we seem to be crossing a threshold and getting close to a very dangerous point. When you build up a make-believe world and surround yourself with only people who reinforce it -- there comes a point where you cannot distinguish reality and fantasy.
And if Putin really believes his own hype, then we're in a very frightening place, indeed..
But then again, [as Peter Pomarantsev recently noted in the 'FT'] maybe there is reason to this madness (or the rumours of it)... What if Mr Putin’s show of derangement was a front, coolly calculated to intimidate the west? What if he wanted them to fear the random acts of recklessness that might follow if he were provoked?
There is a game of bluff and double-bluff going on here.
My uncle, whose was born and raised in Tsarist Russia always told me that Russians always like to play the hard man...and they treat any sign of weakness with great disdain. He lived through deportation to Siberia and I believe knew Russian psyche pretty well. He always told me if you talk tough and refuse to be cowed, or refuse to give way when bullied by Russians, they will back down. On several occasion this saved his life and the life of his family members . A lesson for western leaders perhaps?
Whitmore concludes:
Nutty statements from Russian officials are so commonplace that we almost don't even notice them all anymore.
But we seem to be crossing a threshold and getting close to a very dangerous point. When you build up a make-believe world and surround yourself with only people who reinforce it -- there comes a point where you cannot distinguish reality and fantasy.
And if Putin really believes his own hype, then we're in a very frightening place, indeed..
But then again, [as Peter Pomarantsev recently noted in the 'FT'] maybe there is reason to this madness (or the rumours of it)... What if Mr Putin’s show of derangement was a front, coolly calculated to intimidate the west? What if he wanted them to fear the random acts of recklessness that might follow if he were provoked?
There is a game of bluff and double-bluff going on here.
My uncle, whose was born and raised in Tsarist Russia always told me that Russians always like to play the hard man...and they treat any sign of weakness with great disdain. He lived through deportation to Siberia and I believe knew Russian psyche pretty well. He always told me if you talk tough and refuse to be cowed, or refuse to give way when bullied by Russians, they will back down. On several occasion this saved his life and the life of his family members . A lesson for western leaders perhaps?
Tuesday, January 27, 2015
Lies Putin loves to believe
Today Russian President Vladimir Putin sensationally claimed that Ukraine's army is a NATO proxy whose geopolitical aim is to constrain Russia.
This is what he said :
"This is not the army, per se, this is a foreign proxy, in this case a foreign NATO legion, which, of course, doesn't pursue the objective of national interests of Ukraine.
"They have entirely different goals, and they are tied with the achievement of the geopolitical goals of containing Russia, which absolutely does not fall in place with the national interests of the Ukrainian people."
"We often say: the Ukrainian army, the Ukrainian army. But in fact, who's fighting there? Indeed, there are, in part, official units of armed forces, but for the most part it's the so-called 'volunteer nationalist battalions,'" Putin added.
[Translation from link above...not mine]
Watch Putin uttering these words, at the link here
Looking at his demeanour and not absolutely convincing delivery I am not sure he fully believes everything he is saying..[just my opinion - I think he may have just been trying to 'rubbish' the Ukrainian fighters..but said more than he intended to say.]
Some commentators suggest Putin's assertions may be a pretext to admit the presence of Russian forces in eastern Ukraine, but as a peacemaking force protecting the interests of Ukrainians themselves.
But his strategists and advisers, in the words of a Townes van Zandt song, 'tell him lives he loves to believe'.. making it all ok. The lies will become ever more incredible..and dangerous.
This is what he said :
"This is not the army, per se, this is a foreign proxy, in this case a foreign NATO legion, which, of course, doesn't pursue the objective of national interests of Ukraine.
"They have entirely different goals, and they are tied with the achievement of the geopolitical goals of containing Russia, which absolutely does not fall in place with the national interests of the Ukrainian people."
"We often say: the Ukrainian army, the Ukrainian army. But in fact, who's fighting there? Indeed, there are, in part, official units of armed forces, but for the most part it's the so-called 'volunteer nationalist battalions,'" Putin added.
[Translation from link above...not mine]
Watch Putin uttering these words, at the link here
Looking at his demeanour and not absolutely convincing delivery I am not sure he fully believes everything he is saying..[just my opinion - I think he may have just been trying to 'rubbish' the Ukrainian fighters..but said more than he intended to say.]
Some commentators suggest Putin's assertions may be a pretext to admit the presence of Russian forces in eastern Ukraine, but as a peacemaking force protecting the interests of Ukrainians themselves.
But his strategists and advisers, in the words of a Townes van Zandt song, 'tell him lives he loves to believe'.. making it all ok. The lies will become ever more incredible..and dangerous.
Wednesday, January 21, 2015
Poroshenko interview
Interesting WSJ video interview with Petro Poroshenko
"8 to 9 and one half thousand" Russian troops in Ukraine...
"8 to 9 and one half thousand" Russian troops in Ukraine...
Monday, January 19, 2015
Putin will continue to wage war on Ukraine
'Moscow Times' states the obvious when it declares:
"Putin Is in No Hurry to Resolve Ukraine Crisis...
"Continued fighting gives Putin leverage with Europe that he hopes to corral into forcing Kiev to accept Russia's demands for a "constitutional reform." Any settlement ends this leverage.."
As this noteworthy article [in English] from Gorshenin Institute claims recent statements by key Putin advisers following Kyiv's blockade of separatist-held territories indicate Russian expansion into Ukraine will continue, possibly the start of a major war..
Reminds me of a bleak and famous quote, repeated by Gleb Pavlovsky, a former close adviser of Putin, at the end of a BBC television documentary on the Russia's war on Ukraine last year:
"The lamps are going out all over Europe, we shall not see them lit again in our life-time"
Events over the last few days prove Putin wants to push demarcation lines further west of the ones denoted in the Minsk Agreements. As I have mentioned previously he and Foreign Minister Lavrov are also demanding recognition of the November 2 DNR and LNR 'elections' by Ukraine and the Europeans . The latter is utterly unacceptable- hence the breakdown of the Astana talks and the escalation of violence.
"Putin Is in No Hurry to Resolve Ukraine Crisis...
"Continued fighting gives Putin leverage with Europe that he hopes to corral into forcing Kiev to accept Russia's demands for a "constitutional reform." Any settlement ends this leverage.."
As this noteworthy article [in English] from Gorshenin Institute claims recent statements by key Putin advisers following Kyiv's blockade of separatist-held territories indicate Russian expansion into Ukraine will continue, possibly the start of a major war..
Reminds me of a bleak and famous quote, repeated by Gleb Pavlovsky, a former close adviser of Putin, at the end of a BBC television documentary on the Russia's war on Ukraine last year:
"The lamps are going out all over Europe, we shall not see them lit again in our life-time"
Events over the last few days prove Putin wants to push demarcation lines further west of the ones denoted in the Minsk Agreements. As I have mentioned previously he and Foreign Minister Lavrov are also demanding recognition of the November 2 DNR and LNR 'elections' by Ukraine and the Europeans . The latter is utterly unacceptable- hence the breakdown of the Astana talks and the escalation of violence.
Sunday, January 18, 2015
How Putin invented war in Ukraine
Listen to this January 17, 2015 Real Clear Radio Hour podcast:
"Putin's Circus"
in which Peter Pomerantsev, British TV producer and author of "Nothing is True and Everything is Possible: The Surreal Heart of the New Russia", describes Vladimir Putin’s approach to propaganda and authoritarian rule.
If nothing else at least listen to the last 7 or 8 minutes, i.e. 20 minutes 30 seconds onward into the podcast, from the link here.
Pomarantsev explains how bellicose propaganda has become reality in Eastern Ukraine, how a disinformation-driven reason for war was invented and the danger this poses to world peace.
What a tragedy such cynical manipulation, a war driven by misinformation, has already cost thousands of lives and billions and billions of dollars of physical damage. It is quite possible a humanitarian catastrophe awaits....I pray it does not.
"Putin's Circus"
in which Peter Pomerantsev, British TV producer and author of "Nothing is True and Everything is Possible: The Surreal Heart of the New Russia", describes Vladimir Putin’s approach to propaganda and authoritarian rule.
If nothing else at least listen to the last 7 or 8 minutes, i.e. 20 minutes 30 seconds onward into the podcast, from the link here.
Pomarantsev explains how bellicose propaganda has become reality in Eastern Ukraine, how a disinformation-driven reason for war was invented and the danger this poses to world peace.
What a tragedy such cynical manipulation, a war driven by misinformation, has already cost thousands of lives and billions and billions of dollars of physical damage. It is quite possible a humanitarian catastrophe awaits....I pray it does not.
Friday, January 16, 2015
USA and UK will stand up to Russia's aggression in Ukraine
The Prime Minister and US President today wrote an article for the Times about shared security and prosperity of the UK and the USA.
"...we will continue to stand up to Russia’s aggressive actions in Ukraine. If we allow such fundamental breaches of international law to go unchecked, we will all suffer from the instability that would follow. Our strong and united response has sent an unmistakable message that the international community will not stand by as Russia attempts to destabilise Ukraine.
We will continue working in lockstep and putting pressure on Russia to resolve the crisis diplomatically. At the same time we will keep supporting Ukraine as it works to fulfil the economic and democratic aspirations of the Ukrainian people.
Security and prosperity go hand in hand. By confronting the terrorists who threaten us, standing together against Russia’s aggressive acts and continuing our efforts to advance our economic growth, we will continue to advance the security and prosperity that our people deserve."
Thursday, January 15, 2015
Ukraine isolating LNR and DNR even further
Ukraine is cutting off those citizens who are living in the so-called LNR and DPR-controlled areas from the rest of Ukraine. After a decision made by Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, from this week, a special permit issued by the Ukrainian authorities will be required for entry and/or exit from the ATO area.
Initially, seven crossing points have been designated. A pass can be applied for, by adults only, in four cities held by Ukrainian forces - Starobilsk, Debaltseve, Velyka Novosilka, and Mariupol.
How residents currently living inside the ATO zone can obtain a pass is unclear. Apparently they have to go to the nearest Ukrainian-held checkpoint and hand over necessary documents for processing. They then have to return to that checkpoint after a matter of days to pick up their [by no means guaranteed] 'propusk' - a life-threatening and potentially deadly journey as events in Volnovakha showed. [One of the aims of attacking the checkpoint in Volnovakha was to deter further movement of citizens between the ATO zone and Ukraine proper.]
According to Article 33 of the Ukrainian Constitution, everyone who resides in the territory of Ukraine is guaranteed freedom of movement, freedom of residence, and the right to freely leave the territory of Ukraine.
p.s. This from the the brilliant Vladimir Socor:
"During the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) year-end meeting in Basel, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov declared, “The Minsk [armistice] agreements presuppose a certain sequence of implementing actions.”
Lavrov listed the serial order as: recognition by Kyiv of the November 2 elections in “DPR-LPR,” enactment of a Ukrainian law on special status for those areas, re-establishment of economic links by Kyiv with those two “republics,” and a political dialogue between Kyiv and the two “republics’ ” leaders. When Kyiv will have taken all those steps, the matter of monitoring the Ukraine-Russia border can come up for discussion; but Kyiv will have to discuss it with the two “republics’ ” authorities [they and Russia control the Ukrainian side of the Ukraine-Russia border across a 400-kilometer sector]. (Interfax, December 5)."
Lavrov's presupposings has no basis in reality, as any casual reading of the Minsk Protocol and follow-up Memorandum shows. The November 2 elections were recognised by no-one, including Russia..so why on earth should the Kyiv government recognise then as a starting point for armistice? But Putin does not want this does he? He wants further destabilisation as revenge for being a two-time loser in Ukraine - once in 2004 and once in 2014.
But as they say in Ukraine, if you are plotting revenge, then dig two graves first..
p.p.s. Drop everything and read this Here is a bit:
...Russia can end its current isolation and embark on the path of reform only as the result of a large-scale civil conflict, a major military defeat of Russia's armed forces or else a fundamental economic collapse. The "Ukrainization" of Russian politics has devoured this country's future.
Initially, seven crossing points have been designated. A pass can be applied for, by adults only, in four cities held by Ukrainian forces - Starobilsk, Debaltseve, Velyka Novosilka, and Mariupol.
How residents currently living inside the ATO zone can obtain a pass is unclear. Apparently they have to go to the nearest Ukrainian-held checkpoint and hand over necessary documents for processing. They then have to return to that checkpoint after a matter of days to pick up their [by no means guaranteed] 'propusk' - a life-threatening and potentially deadly journey as events in Volnovakha showed. [One of the aims of attacking the checkpoint in Volnovakha was to deter further movement of citizens between the ATO zone and Ukraine proper.]
According to Article 33 of the Ukrainian Constitution, everyone who resides in the territory of Ukraine is guaranteed freedom of movement, freedom of residence, and the right to freely leave the territory of Ukraine.
p.s. This from the the brilliant Vladimir Socor:
"During the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) year-end meeting in Basel, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov declared, “The Minsk [armistice] agreements presuppose a certain sequence of implementing actions.”
Lavrov listed the serial order as: recognition by Kyiv of the November 2 elections in “DPR-LPR,” enactment of a Ukrainian law on special status for those areas, re-establishment of economic links by Kyiv with those two “republics,” and a political dialogue between Kyiv and the two “republics’ ” leaders. When Kyiv will have taken all those steps, the matter of monitoring the Ukraine-Russia border can come up for discussion; but Kyiv will have to discuss it with the two “republics’ ” authorities [they and Russia control the Ukrainian side of the Ukraine-Russia border across a 400-kilometer sector]. (Interfax, December 5)."
Lavrov's presupposings has no basis in reality, as any casual reading of the Minsk Protocol and follow-up Memorandum shows. The November 2 elections were recognised by no-one, including Russia..so why on earth should the Kyiv government recognise then as a starting point for armistice? But Putin does not want this does he? He wants further destabilisation as revenge for being a two-time loser in Ukraine - once in 2004 and once in 2014.
But as they say in Ukraine, if you are plotting revenge, then dig two graves first..
p.p.s. Drop everything and read this Here is a bit:
...Russia can end its current isolation and embark on the path of reform only as the result of a large-scale civil conflict, a major military defeat of Russia's armed forces or else a fundamental economic collapse. The "Ukrainization" of Russian politics has devoured this country's future.
Even if the warring parties reach a truce in eastern Ukraine, that will not change the state of Russian society. According to Russia's current rhetoric, the West is incapable of offering any response that would warrant restoring a dialogue with it. That leaves no option but for the West to go away, to disappear.
But before that, Moscow demands that the West repent for its centuries of anti-Russian policy — starting with the fall of Byzantium and ending with its alleged role in organizing the coup d'etat in Kiev. The Kremlin and Russia's new post-Crimean society will accept nothing less.
What's more, the new social contract contains no provision for ending the conflict with Kiev. That means Ukraine should simply disappear along with the West. In fact, Putin's rhetoric over the last six months clearly lacks even a single reasonable stance that the Kremlin could take with regard to the West...
Tuesday, January 13, 2015
European Parliament Joint Motion for a Resolution on Ukraine
European Parliament Joint Motion for a Resolution on Ukraine Draft 13.01.2015
"in case of any further Russian actions destabilising Ukraine, invites the European Council to take up further restrictive measures and broaden their scope, by covering the nuclear sector and by limiting the ability of Russian entities to conduct international financial transactions"
Does this mean blocking Russian access to the SWIFT international banking transaction system as proposed by the UK government several months ago?
Some other interesting stuff in the motion too...e.g. reminder "that there are now no objections, including legal restrictions, for Member States to provide defensive arms to Ukraine, which could be based on a "lend-lease" like arrangement"
"in case of any further Russian actions destabilising Ukraine, invites the European Council to take up further restrictive measures and broaden their scope, by covering the nuclear sector and by limiting the ability of Russian entities to conduct international financial transactions"
Does this mean blocking Russian access to the SWIFT international banking transaction system as proposed by the UK government several months ago?
Some other interesting stuff in the motion too...e.g. reminder "that there are now no objections, including legal restrictions, for Member States to provide defensive arms to Ukraine, which could be based on a "lend-lease" like arrangement"
Saturday, January 10, 2015
Putin intends to take more of Ukraine
"Russia definitely has once again turned up the heat and increases its efforts to control even larger parts of Ukraine, willing to conquer those in a brutal and way which is against international law and against all its promises to at least calm down the situation or even better withdraw its forces from Ukraine." [Source - the excellent Conflict Reporter: "Making sense of the latest Russian offensives in eastern Ukraine" ]
Why are mainstream western media not reporting this?
Why are mainstream western media not reporting this?
Tuesday, January 06, 2015
Western leaders should attend victory day parade in Kyiv, not Moscow
It has recently been reported in the press that Downing Street is yet to comment whether or not the British prime minister is planning to attend this year's 70th anniversary celebrations of allied victory over Nazi Germany in Moscow in May.
Many of my Ukrainian forebears fought in the Soviet Army. Ukraine's contribution to the defeat of Hitler's Germany was enormous, as was the suffering inflicted on Ukraine's population during World War 2. As eminent historian Timothy Snyder recently noted:
"World War II on the eastern front was fought chiefly in what was then Soviet Ukraine and Soviet Belarus, not in Soviet Russia. Five percent of Russia was occupied by the Germans; all of Ukraine was occupied by the Germans. Apart from the Jews, whose suffering was by far the worst, the main victims of Nazi policies were not Russians but Ukrainians and Belarusians. There was no Russian army fighting in World War II, but rather a Soviet Red Army. Its soldiers were disproportionately Ukrainian, since it took so many losses in Ukraine and recruited from the local population."
In view of the on-going Russian-Ukrainian war and the international outrage President Putin's aggression has caused, the British prime minister should only attend such an event in Moscow on the condition that Ukraine's President is also invited, and Ukraine's enormous contribution to the defeat of Hitler's Third Reich properly recognised.
The prime minister should discuss and co-ordinate his action in this matter with Chancellor Angela Merkel when they meet in a few days time. Perhaps in light of the comments above they should both attend analogous celebrations in Kyiv instead of in Moscow?
Many of my Ukrainian forebears fought in the Soviet Army. Ukraine's contribution to the defeat of Hitler's Germany was enormous, as was the suffering inflicted on Ukraine's population during World War 2. As eminent historian Timothy Snyder recently noted:
"World War II on the eastern front was fought chiefly in what was then Soviet Ukraine and Soviet Belarus, not in Soviet Russia. Five percent of Russia was occupied by the Germans; all of Ukraine was occupied by the Germans. Apart from the Jews, whose suffering was by far the worst, the main victims of Nazi policies were not Russians but Ukrainians and Belarusians. There was no Russian army fighting in World War II, but rather a Soviet Red Army. Its soldiers were disproportionately Ukrainian, since it took so many losses in Ukraine and recruited from the local population."
In view of the on-going Russian-Ukrainian war and the international outrage President Putin's aggression has caused, the British prime minister should only attend such an event in Moscow on the condition that Ukraine's President is also invited, and Ukraine's enormous contribution to the defeat of Hitler's Third Reich properly recognised.
The prime minister should discuss and co-ordinate his action in this matter with Chancellor Angela Merkel when they meet in a few days time. Perhaps in light of the comments above they should both attend analogous celebrations in Kyiv instead of in Moscow?
Friday, January 02, 2015
West must not sell Ukraine down the river
Please read this:
A Ukraine-Russia peace deal: Crimea must have a cost,
from the excellent Mark Galleotti
Will Putin repeat Yanukovych's mistakes?
Vitaliy Portnikov makes some observations on the recent demonstration in Manezhnaya Square in Moscow following the guilty verdict on of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
He compares this demonstration to those that took place during the trial of Yulia Tymoshenko. None of them were particularly well attended and many Russians, and Ukrainians, are, and were sceptical about their efficacy, failing to understand that the protesters in both countries were first and foremost demonstrating against the cynical use of the legal system to try and 'break the back' of possible political foes.
"It is clear that Navalny is on trial for political reasons, that his brother is a victim of crude hostage taking. The people who came out to the streets in Moscow, where just trying to protect the rule of law. And the number of Ukrainians who came out to the Maidan at first was even smaller."
Portnikov recalls that until Berkut riot police tried to clear the Maidan of students just over a year ago the majority of activists in Ukraine, and virtually all politicians believed that 'the moment was lost' and protests would fizzle out.
One of the future leaders of the Maidan, following Yanukovych's non signing of the EU/Ukraine Association Agreement at Vilnius, told Portnikov that after Vilnius: "no revolutionary situation in Ukraine exists and is not expected". But just a few days later, after the mass beating of students, the streets were filled with hundreds of thousands of protesters.
Portnikov concludes: "Putin is politically much more shrewd than Yanukovych - at the end of the day he is not criminal thug but a 'Chekist', and will avoid adding fuel to the fire of protests. He mobilizes society by pressing on the chauvinistic pedal.
If Yanukovych had signed to an association agreement in Vilnius, even if he had not tried to disperse the protesters and promised to continue the policy of drawing closer to Europe, if he had entered negotiations with the opposition and offered to share power at the first stages of the Maidan, he would still have been president - and the country would be rolling into the abyss. But Yanukovych was a greedy idiot and a puppet. There is no-one behind Putin, but this does not mean that sooner or later he will not make the same mistake."
p.s. At the New Year's 'Celebration' in central Donetsk yesterday: Almost 100 of the city's 800,000 population attended - looking forward to 2015 under Russian occupation. About 40,000 attended a similar event in Kyiv.
Just saying....
He compares this demonstration to those that took place during the trial of Yulia Tymoshenko. None of them were particularly well attended and many Russians, and Ukrainians, are, and were sceptical about their efficacy, failing to understand that the protesters in both countries were first and foremost demonstrating against the cynical use of the legal system to try and 'break the back' of possible political foes.
"It is clear that Navalny is on trial for political reasons, that his brother is a victim of crude hostage taking. The people who came out to the streets in Moscow, where just trying to protect the rule of law. And the number of Ukrainians who came out to the Maidan at first was even smaller."
Portnikov recalls that until Berkut riot police tried to clear the Maidan of students just over a year ago the majority of activists in Ukraine, and virtually all politicians believed that 'the moment was lost' and protests would fizzle out.
One of the future leaders of the Maidan, following Yanukovych's non signing of the EU/Ukraine Association Agreement at Vilnius, told Portnikov that after Vilnius: "no revolutionary situation in Ukraine exists and is not expected". But just a few days later, after the mass beating of students, the streets were filled with hundreds of thousands of protesters.
Portnikov concludes: "Putin is politically much more shrewd than Yanukovych - at the end of the day he is not criminal thug but a 'Chekist', and will avoid adding fuel to the fire of protests. He mobilizes society by pressing on the chauvinistic pedal.
If Yanukovych had signed to an association agreement in Vilnius, even if he had not tried to disperse the protesters and promised to continue the policy of drawing closer to Europe, if he had entered negotiations with the opposition and offered to share power at the first stages of the Maidan, he would still have been president - and the country would be rolling into the abyss. But Yanukovych was a greedy idiot and a puppet. There is no-one behind Putin, but this does not mean that sooner or later he will not make the same mistake."
p.s. At the New Year's 'Celebration' in central Donetsk yesterday: Almost 100 of the city's 800,000 population attended - looking forward to 2015 under Russian occupation. About 40,000 attended a similar event in Kyiv.
Just saying....
Tuesday, December 30, 2014
Straws in the wind
Recently the number of metro payment tokens available for sale in St. Petersburg has been restricted.
Residents of Putin's home town, quite sensibly, had been trying to protect themselves from further collapse of the ruble by panic buying huge numbers of these tokens.
These residents know that their government is powerless to halt the fall of the ruble and resultant inflation - and by limiting sale of these tokens is merely providing tangible confirmation of this.
Eventually such a seemingly trivial series of events can turn out to be a last straw that can even trigger revolution..
Residents of Putin's home town, quite sensibly, had been trying to protect themselves from further collapse of the ruble by panic buying huge numbers of these tokens.
These residents know that their government is powerless to halt the fall of the ruble and resultant inflation - and by limiting sale of these tokens is merely providing tangible confirmation of this.
Eventually such a seemingly trivial series of events can turn out to be a last straw that can even trigger revolution..
Tuesday, December 23, 2014
DNR shut-out?
President Poroshenko's press service today revealed that after telephone conversations between the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France it was agreed a meeting of the contact group on resolution of the war in eastern Ukraine will to take place in Minsk on Wednesday and Friday this week.
One of the Donetsk People's Republic 'capos', Denis Pushilin stated they too were ready to attend in the the contact group format in Minsk, on December 24 and 26 December, but do not know anything further about it.
"Today Ukraine are has not communicated with us and did not coordinate a date for the meeting, however, we are ready for such a dialogue on these dates," said Pushilin.
In other words, so far, they have not been invited to this meeting of the 'grown-ups'.
Ukraine's first president Leonid Kravchuk quite correctly maintains: "...the signatory countries of the Budapest Memorandum should gather and draw conclusions as to whether the main core of this pivotal document - ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine - has been adhered to. [Such a meeting] should take place - but it should not be ambassadors who attend but rather heads of state who signed the document. Then there will be something to talk about. Everything else is the pushing away any solution."
The heat is now getting to Putin after the week the tide turned and broke his dreams..
Dognat' i peregnat' - 'to catch up and overtake' looks further away than ever..
And without Putin's life support system his ugly creations DNR and LNR will wither.
One of the Donetsk People's Republic 'capos', Denis Pushilin stated they too were ready to attend in the the contact group format in Minsk, on December 24 and 26 December, but do not know anything further about it.
"Today Ukraine are has not communicated with us and did not coordinate a date for the meeting, however, we are ready for such a dialogue on these dates," said Pushilin.
In other words, so far, they have not been invited to this meeting of the 'grown-ups'.
Ukraine's first president Leonid Kravchuk quite correctly maintains: "...the signatory countries of the Budapest Memorandum should gather and draw conclusions as to whether the main core of this pivotal document - ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine - has been adhered to. [Such a meeting] should take place - but it should not be ambassadors who attend but rather heads of state who signed the document. Then there will be something to talk about. Everything else is the pushing away any solution."
The heat is now getting to Putin after the week the tide turned and broke his dreams..
Dognat' i peregnat' - 'to catch up and overtake' looks further away than ever..
And without Putin's life support system his ugly creations DNR and LNR will wither.
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