Sooner or later, PRU 'on the up'

Presently it is, apparently, 'consulations' on parliamentary {VR} coalition that are taking place between NSNU and PRU. While at the same time, 'negotiations' are proceeding between the leaders of three orange parties BYuT, NSNU, and SPU.

This maybe indicate that an orange coalition is still the more likely. The process has to be 'done and dusted' by 25th June, otherwise the President has the power to dissolve parliament and call for fresh elections. He is, however, unlikely to do this because his own party's ratings, [NSNU] have declined even further since the March elections, and there is a realistic possibility that Yanukovych's PRU could gain an absolute majority in any follow-up elections, some observers claiming NSNU's vote could drop to 5%.

Alternatively, a short-term 'pseudo-coalition' could be formed to temporarily save the President from the humiliation of dissolving the VR.

Or acting PM Yuriy Yekhanurov and his cabinet could continue 'limping on' for some time. But without a functioning parliament, the country would remain in a state of political stasis.

Today SPU leader Oleksandr Moroz issued a strongly worded rebuttal, challenging accusations made by President Yushchenko on Friday when he berated Moroz for demanding the position of VR speaker for himself.

He complains, "Appointments at all levels [of government] over the last year and a half have taken place according to the canons of the previous government, and not according to professional principles. This is evidenced by the woeful state of affairs, e.g. in the oil and gas sphere, and in most sectors of the law-enforcement systems*."

And his statement closes, "I again must sadly note that the 'ideals of the Maidan', which were shown to be close to the Ukrainian nation, have not yet become the leading principle of action for the new authorities. Most people in the government still don't understand that Ukrainians succeeded in gathering together [at the Maidan], in order, in the words of a classic, 'to kill the dragon inside.' If the authorities do not come to their senses, the citizens will not suffer quietly for another 10 years." Much undisguised bitterness in the orange camp then, with little sign of rapprochement.

Even at this late stage, it's 50:50 as to which coalition combination will be realized..

The time wasted by the orange forces has benefitted PRU. They know that any orange coalition is unlikely to hold together for long, so sooner or later their moment will come. And, bolstered by disenchanted defectors, a coalition led by themselves would probably be more robust and stable.

PRU claim that some deputies defecting from other parties have secretly pledged them their support, so they have the numbers already, but because of rather unclear rules forbidding deputies to 'change horses in mid-stream', they cannot submit their candidate to be voted into office in the VR. Officially, if a deputy switches from one fraction to another, he supposedly automatically forfeits his mandate.

*Last September Yushchenko fired PM Yuliya Tymoshenko and her entire cabinet, sensationally blowing apart the orange coalition brought together for the 2004 Presidential elections, after her #2, Oleksandr Turchynov, who was head of the Ukrainian Security Service [SBU] at the time, was close to exposing corruption involving persons close to the President, in the field of gas procurement. They had allegedly continued running scams previously operated by members of the Kuchma regime. I have blogged previously about the current state of the SBU.

Monday update: NSNU have completed their 'consultations' with PRU and are ready to proceed with 'negotiations', according to one of NSNU's top negotiators, Roman Zvarych.

When asked to comment about progress between the three orange coalition partners, he replied, "There are differences which are sufficiently serious that they could become a barrier." But he did go on to say that if discussions start with PRU, then certain differences could arise, particulary concerning questions of NATO and [Russian] language [status].