Early VR elections?

For a while now, there's been much talk by the leading Ukrainian politicos about the possibility of early VR [and possibly even presidential] elections. Yushchenko reminded everyone today that the procedures for early elections are accurately defined by the law, adding that declarations on such early elections are blackmail, provocation and psychological pressure, but he did not rule out the possiblity of such elections taking place.

Deputy PM and minister of finances Mykola Azarov also made some interesting statements yesterday in a radio interview. He confirmed that PoR representatives are preparing a bill on early parliamentary and presidential elections. Earlier this had been declared by PoR VR deptuty Vasiliy Kiselev. According to him the bill will be submitted to parliament tomorrow, 2nd March.

Azarov's statement attests to the fact that the "Regionaly" do not want to be linked to the 'Sotspartiya' and the Communists during the elections, even though Yanukovych came to power thanks to a coalition arranged with SPU leader Oleksandr Moroz. Since then the ratings of the SPU and CPU have fallen precipitously, and in the event of early elections both of these parties could possibly be 'wiped out'.

Yesterday BYuT leader Yulia Tymoshenko during her CSIS presentation in Washington stated that the crisis of authority in Ukraine cannot be overcome by means of a revolution, but by the calling early elections. The Americans seemed not object - the main thing is that the elections be fair and democratic.

Recent opinion polls conducted by the Research & Branding Group in February, indicate that if elections to the VR took place next Sunday, then the greatest support would be given to two political forces - Partiya Regioniv (28%) and BYuT (20%). "Our Ukraine" would receive only 7% of votes cast.

At the same time, according to another opinion poll conducted by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, if Presidential elections took place in February, 39,2% of Ukrainians would vote for Yanukovych, 28,1% for Tymoshenko, and 13.1% for Yushchenko.

LEvko says Ukrainian OP's provide only a 'fuzzy' picture. BYuT have least to lose and most to gain. PoR could possibly obtain a useful absolute majority in the VR, particularly if numbers were to be 'adjusted' upwards again, but they already have a reasonably disciplined working majority. Perhaps they are getting a bit hubristic and over-confident. As a British politician one said, 'A week is a long time in politics.'

NU have much to lose - a vote for them would be a wasted vote - but no-one's excluding the possibility of early elections..