Wednesday, August 08, 2012
New parliament to be short-lived?
The 'Economist' writes about the pressure being applied on Ukraine's media here
They claim: "[October's parliamentary] polls (and the media climate in which they are held) must be fair enough to avoid sanction [from the West]. But they must also secure a majority for the ruling team in parliament."
Whatever the results of these polls, Sonya Koshkina of LB.ua predicts the seventh convocation of the Verkhovna Rada will be truncated at some point. Here's a summary of what she says:
The V.R.'s lifespan depends on how long it will be amenable to the president's whims. Parliament has long ceased to be a place for political debate and decision-making, or for generating new ideas. Moreover it has long-ceased to be a self-contained branch of government, balancing out the cabinet of ministers and the presidential administration. It is no longer a place where the remnants of political competition can be maintained; as soon as Parliament tries to become what once was and what it is duty-bound to be, Yanukovych will dismiss it. He has the power to do so.
All those standing for election and investing considerable sums to do so should be aware of this.
The three main tasks assigned for new parliament will be:
Transfer of the remainder of state property into the hands of the country's most influential clans;
Removal of immunity from prosecution from its members to produce a more obedient and subservient parliament;
and alteration the Constitution, to provide an opportunity for president Yanukovych to be re-elected for a second term in office by a vote in parliament rather than by popular mandate.
Another reason for the fragility of the seventh convocation is economic.A sharp downturn in November and December is inevitable, because of the current global economic situation, and because of the big pre-election bugetary splurge currently being indulged in by the Ukrainian government.
Yanukovych will deflect blame on PM Azarov, possibly sacking him and dissolving parliament. But everyone knows he has concentrated all authority in his own hands - it is he that will ultimately be held responsible.
p.s.
Responding to questions from 'Ukrainska Pravda's Mustafa Nayem, about Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP, an American law firm contracted by the Justice Ministry of Justice earlier this year in connection with the Tymoshenko trial, Ukraine's Ministry of Justice replied:
"The Ministry of Justice has concluded an agreement with the Skadden legal company to provide services in the field of legal investigation.
According to the conditions of the agreement, lawyers of Skadden should conduct an investigation on the adherence to the principle of supremacy of the law and practices of the European Court of Human Rights in the case of "Tymoshenko vs Ukraine", which is [currently] being examined in the ECHR.
According to the agreement, payment for services...cannot exceed 90,000 Hryven, [less than $12.000] hence tender procedures need not be applied..."
In other words, they are being employed to provide justification for Tymoshenko's persecution.
Top Washington lawyers do not even get out of bed for this sort of money, never mind travelling abroad to conduct investigations in a distant foreign country. If the Ukrainian Ministry were serious they would earmark a sum of at least an order of magnitude greater. Skadden's 'fig-leaf' report will only be suitable for lavatorial purposes. Why on earth did they not employ a major Ukrainian law firm? It's all just a cheap PR stunt...and an embarrassment for Skadden.
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4 comments:
Scott, read you regularly along with most other available English sources on Ukraine. Yesterday for perspective, read your postings from the beginning in August 2004 to after the election, January 2005. My thanks to you for this prodigious and quality effort. I was hoping for understanding of the past (written as it happened), for understanding the possibilities of the future.
The story of your mother-in-law did still bring tears to me and the hope for Yushenko all the more tragic for his later behavior. The review might be instructive for you, too.
I have some observations I would like to share privately; please contact me.
Thanks again for your efforts...
I fully support the proposal to have the president appointed by an absolute majority of the parliament But on the condition that power and authority is removed from the office of President. The notion of a directly elected head of state costing 100sof millions of dollars can not be justified. In the US it is reported that their presidential Elction is costing over 3 billion dollars. A parliamentary appointment of two thirs of the parliament is by far more democratic.
As to the question of the new parliament, I would agree this is and will be a failure. The reinstated MMP system where single member constituencies are elected by a first-past-the-post voting system will create divisions and ongoing instability leading to ongoing corruption. The system itself is unrepresentative. Under a FPTP voting system candidates are elected with less than 50% of the vote and in some circumstances as low as 30%.
It does not matter who wins a majority of seats as all the power lies with the office of the president. If the opposition manages to secure a majority of seats (highly unlikely) it will only hold a slender majority at best. The ongoing power struggles and instability between the parliament and the office of the President will result in the parliament being dismissed, as the Presidnet holds all the trump cards.
Ukraine will NEVER be a free democratic state as long as it remains beholden to Presidential rule.
the peered option would be to remove presidential power. Reform the parliament and adopt a full Parliamenatry democracy in line with European values and European models, such as exist in Estonia or Latvia.
The Parliamnet should be constituted from local multi-member electores with each electorate returning 5 or nine members of Parliament using a system of proportional representation. uch a model would ensure that the Parliamnet truly reflects the interests of the UkrIne. It would provide a more stable and democratic state. Such as a system was recommended by the Venice Commission and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe.
UkrAne came close to establishing a full parliamentary system. the constitutional amendments introduced back in 2004/6 were a step in the right direction. sadly Victor Yushchenko opposed Ukraine becoming a full Parliamnetary democracy.
Yushchenko had set back Ukraine's democratic development decades if to generations.
the changes introduced by Yanukovych soon after he secured the Position of Presidnet is a backward step. A step way from democratic representative Government.
unless the opposition can unite in a common policy of constitutional reform and support the proposal to remove presidmetial authority and adopt a Parliamnetary system their is little chance that Ukraine will ever become a true democracy or member of the European Community. ch is the legacy of Yuschenko's betrayal.
I fully support the proposal to have the president appointed by an absolute majority of the parliament But on the condition that power and authority is removed from the office of President.
The notion of a directly elected head of state costing 100s of millions of dollars can not be justified. In the US it is reported that their presidential election is costing over 3 billion dollars. A parliamentary appointment of two thirds of the parliament, representing 67% is by far more democratic than a Presidet who represents just 52%. A directly elected president is only held accountable at each election where a Parliamentary appointed head is state is held accountable on a daly basis. A head of state without power plays a guiding elder statesman role not an authoritarian role.
As to the question of the new parliament, I would agree this is and will be a failure. The reinstated MMP system where single member constituencies are elected by a first-past-the-post voting system will create divisions and instability leading to ongoing corruption. The MMP FPTP system itself is unrepresentative. Under a FPTP voting system candidates are elected with less than 50% of the vote and in some circumstances as low as 30%.
It does not matter who wins a majority of seats in the new parliament as all the power lies with the office of the president. Und the current revised constitution the President appoints the Governmnet not the parliament.
If the opposition manages to secure a majority of seats (highly unlikely) it will only hold a slender majority at best.
The ongoing power struggle and instability between the parliament and the office of the President will result in the parliament being dismissed, as the President holds all the trump cards.
Ukraine will NEVER be a free democratic state as long as it remains beholden to Presidential rule.
The preferred option would be to remove presidential power. Reform the system and adopt a full democratic Parliamentary system in line with European values and European models, such as exist in Estonia or Latvia.
The Parliament should be constituted from local multi-member electorates (90 or 50) with each electorate returning five or nine members of Parliament using a system of proportional representation. Such a model would ensure that the Parliament truly reflects and represents the interests of the Ukraine. It would provide a more stable and democratic state. Such as a system was recommended by the Venice Commission and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe.
Ukraine came close to establishing a full parliamentary system. The constitutional amendments introduced back in 2004/6 were a step in the right direction. Sadly Victor Yushchenko opposed Ukraine becoming a full Parliamnetary democracy.
Yushchenko had set back Ukraine's democratic development decades if to generations.
The changes introduced by Yanukovych soon after he secured the presidency is a backward step. A step way from democratic representative Government.
Unless the opposition can unite in a common policy of constitutional reform and support the proposal to remove presidential authority and adopt a Parliamentray system their is little chance that Ukraine will ever become a true democracy or member of the European Community. Such is the legacy of Yuschenko's betrayal. Opportunity lost.
Our Ukraine to hand power to Yanukovych.
Yushchenko's Our Ukriane has nominated for 36 single member constituents. This will water down the oppositions chances of wining these seats. nderten first-past-the-post voting system the highest polling candidate wins. era vote for Our Ukraine is a vote less for te opposition. The winning candidates can win with less than 50% support.
Opposition have lost before the ballot has even commenced
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