Monday's big-selling, pro-PoR 'Segodnya' newspaper article on president Yanukovych's trip to Brussels yesterday was entitled:
'Yanukovych only smiled once during the Ukraine-EU summit'
Here is a passage:
"..The President did not sign anything in Brussels, [but] private negotiations with EU leaders Herman Van Rompuy and Jose Manuel Barroso took place. They talked for over two hours instead of the planned 30 minutes ... [After this] the three of them entered the press centre without smiling. Van Rompuy almost immediately began to speak of the "Fule criteria" - 19 requirements that the European Commissioner for Integration brought to Kyiv two weeks ago.
And [with] the first of them the EU president mentioned the most uncomfortable question - "selective justice." Van Rompuy use this phrase at least five times, whilst mentioning progress in the implementation of Ukraine's European integration plan only once. "The EU wants to have a successful summit in Vilnius" (in November 2013, when is expected that the Association Agreement EU and Ukraine will be signed), - but made it clear that the success of the summit depends solely on Yanukovych.
Yanukovych facial expression during these speeches was expressionless...Yanukovych smiled only once, after a question from a Reuters correspondent..."
Today, 'Segodnya' is equally realistic in its reporting:
'Ukraine has been given a chance to catch the train...
Europe is changing its strategy and awaits a solution to the problems of Tymoshenko and Lutsenko...'
What did Rompuy and Barrosso tell Yanukovych in those two hours?
LEvko hazards a guess, and suggests the following:
"Listen Yanukovych, you have the chance to clinch a landmark deal with the EU - the biggest in your country's history. Your place in that history will be assured. Furthermore, a successful signing would greatly enhance the chances of what you crave most: a second term in office as president. We have not closed the door...the ball is in your court...
But if the deal falls through, you will be blamed for screwing up the best opportunity in a generation for your country to develop swiftly. Your chances of a second presidential term will be dented as a result. Furthermore, you will be considered to be a vindictive bully, who has put his own lust for revenge over political enemies ahead the future development of his country. You will not be welcome anywhere in western democracies...there may even be calls for sanctions against you, your associates and your family...
The opposition are disunited....Tymoshenko's moment in history has passed...Forget about her...let her go..."
But will Yanukovych take heed?
Your blogger doubts this.
During his formative years Yanukovych was immersed in a criminal environment...his deepest instincts tell him: Enemies have to be destroyed - never compromise with enemies; never, give a dangerous opponent, especially a younger, smarter one, a second chance to get back at you....you will regret it for ever....
The campaign to destroy Tymoshenko has been a priority for president Yanukovych since the day he came to power..I do not believe he will change...it would be an unacceptable mark of weakness...
Yanukovych could have had Lutsenko released last week...he did not.
Apparently the thin-skinned Yanukovych, [a characteristic of many bullies] hates Lutsenko calling him a 'zek'...[ prison inmate]. He hates the nasty and horrible Lutsenko saying disagreeable things about Yanukovych's son...
For Yanukovych it' easy....if you don't want sleepless nights, be an autocrat...
Unfortunately I have to agree with the conclusions here: Yanukovych's actions are not based on rational reasoning, but solely on primitive and base instincts and have to be understood in that context. Many political analysts and commentators in the west have been perplexed and confused by the actions and decisions of Yanukovych since he became president, as he often acts completely contrary to all reason and logic. The obvious answer to this riddle has for many appeared to be to shocking to accept: that a country of the size of Ukraine has a ... many would even say a "village idiot", but let's be modest and just say, a man of very limited intellectual capacity as their highest official representative. But if you accept that, Yanukovych is actually very simple and easy to understand. When the shit storm first hit Yanukovych in October 2011, after the verdict in the gas case against Tymoshenko, I predicted that the answer from Yanukovych would only be to step up the accusations against Tymoshenko and start new processes, to try to convince western governments that Tymoshenko is just a criminal who deserves to be in jail; and that is exactly what happened. That is also why I think his "solution" now to the "Tymoshenko case" will just be more of the same. He will most likely order the prosecutors to speed up the Scherban murder process in order to secure a life time inprisonment for Tymoshenko as soon as possible. Then he could even afford to pardon Tymoshenko for the gas case. Alternative for Yanukovych could be to finally accept that the initial gas process was not up to European standards and that the process has to be repeated again in a Ukrainian court. That would delay everything for many years and he could still keep the Scerban murder case, the UESU case and possibly other cases (anyone remembers the "Kyoto case", or the "ambulances case"?) as a trump. Anyway, as long as Yanukovych has the power, he will never release Tymoshenko. The only possibility for her release is an internal revolt within the PoR, strong enough to limit the power of Yanukovych. There are of obviously those who realize the pure madness of Yanukovych's policies, and how much it damages not only Ukraine as country but also their own business interests, and therefore they may act, albeit mostly for selfish reasons. That however, requires courage and very few in the PoR seems to possess that quality of character.
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