Thoughts on Minsk protocol

Sergey Tolstov, writing in Delo.ua describes what may well await the east of Ukraine following signing of the Minsk protocol.

The protocol, most significantly, makes no mention of the presence of Russian forces on Ukrainian territory:

Below is a summary of the conclusion of his well-detailed article:

Elections at gunpoint and [formal] recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics [DPR &LPR]

Until now the DPR &LPR were inherently military forces which have not fulfilled out any administrative function on the territories under their control; they were, and still are, purely parasitic structures.

Under the new [proposed] conditions the leaders of these groups will receive partial political recognition as participants of the settlement process and as representatives of territories having a "special status".

Such recognition, and, especially, participation of the DPR & LPR leadership [and candidates supported by them] in any local elections in territories they control will provide them with political legalisation, enabling them to create their own administrative apparatus.

Moreover, the holding of such elections would open the possibility of direct managerial control by DPR & LDR of public utilities, trade, and transport and energy infrastructure in the territories controlled by them.

As for elections in the territories controlled by the DPR & LPR their leaders are hardly going to abandon the use of repressive measures against political opponents. All sorts of prohibitions and barriers to participation for candidates from Ukrainian political parties can be expected. [Surely an understatement by the writer.]

As to restoration of the economy and infrastructure of Donbas, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has stated that Russia will help the south-east of Ukraine, but Kyiv has to restore it. In other words, the Russian government wants Kyiv to fund areas controlled by the separatists.

It this is to be the Russians stance then Kyiv must insist implementation of the program of economic revival of Donbas and the provision of humanitarian assistance to territories controlled by DPR & LPR  be dependent on the withdrawal of Russian troops. Otherwise Kyiv allocated funds should go only for the restoration of infrastructure in territories controlled by the central government.

In actual fact Tolstov has explained why the Minsk protocol is surely a 'dead duck'