Tymoshenko 'jumping the gun'?

Following the surprise appointment of a new parliamentary speaker yesterday, tonight PM Tymoshenko addressed the nation in a TV broadcast.

I've translated some portions below:

"...You know that the situation in the Ukraine was recently complicated by a consciously created amoral political crisis, which made it simply impossible to resist by financial-economic means. A paralysed parliament, irresponsible, empty criticism, aggression and black propaganda - the reasons for these were a shallow fight for the second presidential term at any price.

But there is good news too. Yesterday, in the parliament, a new coalition of three political forces was formed: of our fraction [BYuT], the NUNS bloc and Volodymyr Lytvyn's bloc. Volodymyr Lytvyn was finally elected a speaker for parliament. The Parliamentary political crisis has ended. Tomorrow, in the VR normal operations will resume. Our hands are freed from shackles. Kremlin plots, state mutinies, denial of the right of people to elect their President, [all of which president Yushchenko accused Tymoshenko of..LEvko] have been exposed as banal untruths. I want to thank all political forces, fractions, people deputies, who by their voting yesterday ended this political disgrace and created a coalition. All these positive steps were made not with the aid of the President, but in spite of his active opposition to the creation of the coalition. But now our priority in parliament, after overcoming the political crisis, will be dedicated to overcoming all that is wrong and normalization of the life of each one of you...."

Tymoshenko gives details of new political and economic initiatives, and continues:

"..... And this is only the beginning of normal operation after the termination of the shameful, intentionally created, political crisis. I declare, that I will personally nurture this parliament, this newly created coalition. I will never allow the tormenting of the VR, or of the country, which we have observed in recent months. Because no presidential elections are worth political adventurers throwing the country into the abyss of opposition and chaos...."

In the 2007 VR elections, BYuT obtained 156 seats in parliament, NUNS 72, and Lytvyn's bloc [BL] 20, i.e. 248 in total - well in excess of the 226 required to form a ruling coalition.

However, Lytvyn's appointment as VR speaker yesterday supported by 154 deputies from BYuT, 40 from NUNS, and 20 from BL, i.e. by 214 deputies. So Lytyvn was elected thanks only to 27 Communist votes and 3 from PoR.

Some NUNS deputies already claim that the declaration on the recreation of this new 'democratic' coalition was not signed by NUNS head, Vyacheslav Kyrylenko, but by Borys Tarasyuk, which, in the opinion of these NUNS deputies renders it invalid.

However, it seems that the NUNS deputies who supported Lytvyn also support the new coalition, so their number is sufficient to vote through NUNS restarting co-operation with BYuT at their party meeting.

But Tymoshenko's bitter outbursts tonight, will not have helped these guys in convincing their fellow party deputies who loyal to the president, to go with them. Officially, the NUNS fraction are currently "finalising" the coalition agreement with their two partners.

If this newly-formed is successfully assembled, and if it is to work, it looks as if Lytvyn will have to use all of his cunning. He will have to constantly cajole at least some PoR or Communist deputies to support any of the coalition's parliamentary proposals, for them to be adopted.

Right now PoR will not be much worried about the durability of this new coalition. Tymoshenko will be happy with her tactical victory over the president. But what future is there for the badly-split NUNS?