This week Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and EU Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighborhood Policy, Stefan Fule, have had a couple of meetings to discuss the settlement of the current deep political crisis. Today Fule was interviewed by the excellent Natalia Humenyuk on Hromadske Radio.
One of his main messages was: "[European] foreign ministers [at the Council of Europe] made it clear that the EU is ready to react rapidly on any eventual deterioration of the situation on the ground."
Translating this from diplo-speak: If Yanukovych uses violent means to scatter the EuroMaidan sanctions against leading Ukrainian ministers will immediately kick in.
Fule called videos such as this one explaining reasons for sanctions under existing legislation 'best sellers', [ presumably in the circles in which he mixes...]
One of Yanukovych's closest advisers, head of the president's administration Andriy Kluyev, who has many business interests in Austria, would be one of the first in the firing line. Former PM Mykola Azarov, who flew to Austria to join his family who live there immediately after being sacked a couple of weeks ago, has now returned back to Ukraine....
There are credible reports that during the last few days of January Kluyev had secret meeting with Yulia Tymoshenko. She has been incarcerated in a Kharkiv clinic for many months and is currently serving a seven year stretch for 'abuse of power'. [At a press conference today following a visit to her by Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Oleksandr Turchynov, the latter, when asked, did not deny his leader may have indeed met Kluyev].
Among other things, at his meeting with Tymoshenko, Andriy Klyuyev allegedly proposed to the ex-premier in exchange for her support for Arseniy Yatsenyuk's appointment as PM she would be freed to fly to Germany for treatment. Kluyev also promised all activists detained for their links to the current crisis would be freed, and a commission to work on the drafting of a new Constitution would be formed.
Tymoshenko told Kluyev to piss off.
All this is quite revealing.
As I have mentioned many times previously, Tymoshenko was arrested, tried and sentenced in order to be used as a bargaining chip when the time was right. It seems the moment has come.
Kluyev and his pals now know - if serious violence is used against protesters they will be stuck in Ukraine [or Russia] for good. Sure, they have property and assets in Ukraine, but the bulk is most likely stashed away in offshore bank accounts and will not be much good if they are banned from travelling to Europe and North America. No happy retirement when they get old. Sanctions against them is a big weapon..
These people also know that without a swift injection of several billion dollars Ukraine's economy will quickly "go down the tubes". Putin will demand that in order any further funds be disbursed only someone trusted by him must become Ukraine's PM. Failing this, the EU could step in..but there will be serious strings attached and major economic pain linked to their proposals. They, like the Americans, would like to see someone like Yatsenyuk head the cabinet of ministers.
Party of Regions' will try to nominate one of their bandits, for PM, There are rumours that the 37 year-old former catering college student, now acting minister of justice, Olena Lukash, may even be nominated as a compromise...
Run for the hills boys...
p.s. There is mounting circumstantial evidence that off-duty Berkut personnel are responsible for the torching of dozens and dozens of activists' vehicles in Kyiv and elsewhere. Also very many of the detained activists who are currently being released, or are now on house arrest, are claiming they were horribly maltreated, particularly by Berkut goons. Berkut and other riot control forces are stoking up protesters' anger and are a serious impediment to a successful resolution of the current crisis.
Showing posts with label Ukraine crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ukraine crisis. Show all posts
Friday, February 14, 2014
Saturday, February 01, 2014
Bohoslovska's predictions [Updated]
A most interesting interview with former PoR parliamentary deputy, Inna Bohoslovska, who recently left PoR to become an independent outspoken critic of the Ukrainian authorities, on Hromadske.tv a couple of hours ago. Bohoslovska is considered by some to be 'bullet-proof' and free to to criticise Yanukovych, under the 'krysha' of oligarch Viktor Pinchuk.
I hope it will soon be posted on YouTube.
Update: The imo important hour and one half interview can be seen on YouTube here. I believe she provides a true picture of the inside workings and current attitudes inside the PoR parliamentary fraction, particularly following Yanukovych's unprecedented visit to force his deputies to vote for a bill to provide amnesty to demonstrators conditional on the clearance of streets and buildings seized during protests.
Amongst her many revealing comments she claimed all that stands between a peaceful resolution to the current Ukrainian crisis and major bloodshed are 40-odd rebellious PoR parliamentary deputies. Even though they crumbled before Yanukovych a couple of days ago, they remain vital to any political resolution to the crisis.
Yanukovch is aware of this and will do his utmost to dissolve the Verkhovna Rada because, as Vitaliy Portnikov says, it offers an alternative platform for dialogue between EuroMaidan and the opposition.
Even though the president does not have the authority to dissolve parliament, current parliamentary speaker, and old-time Yanuk crony, Volodymyr Rybak does not exclude such a possibility.
Bohoslovska claimed the EuroMaidan was to be cleared by force on the 28th, but statements by Rinat Akhmetov and others denouncing violence, and phone calls from US VP Joe Biden, saved the day.
Also Yanukovych does not have the 50% support of the electorate to become a tyrant.
Many PoR deputies were prepared to cast a blind eye on the massive corruption by 'The Family' in recent years because signing of the Association Agreement was so much more important.. When signing the AA in Vilnius fell through last November, the situation became a different ball game.
After the Sochi Olympics Bohoslovska suggested there will be an attempt by Russia to 'nibble off' portions of Ukraine, particularly Luhansk and Kharkiv oblasts, and maybe Crimea. Kharkiv would be a big problem because although the local strongmen, Mayor Gennady Kernes and Regional State Administration head Mykhaylo Dobkin would be co-operative if such a turn of events were to occur, the local population, in particular, young students could react unpredictably. This scenario is being organised by Putin adviser Vladislav Surkov..
Bohoslovska suggested the recent sadistic kidnappings of EuroMaidan leaders, including Dmytro Bulatov, had the hallmarks of Kharkiv crime gangs on them, in particular of the 'Oplot' organisation.
She admitted that 90% of Ukraine's 11,000 judges were completely corrupt and should be replaced, and that this would be a good starting point in any major reform. She also admitted that although judge Kireyev who presided over the Tymoshenko trial was also 'bent', Tymoshenko was a crook in any case, and that had she been leading the opposition right now, there would have been a blood-bath.
p.s Germany's top-selling newspaper carries the story above: :Tortured with electric shocks...half his ear cut off, my friend [Dima Bulatov] was cruelly tortured..by Vitaliy Klychko"
Berkut can act with impunity...not one of their ranks has had to face criminal charges since the troubles began despite dozens and dozens of recorded incidents of excessive use of violence..torture, maltreatment etc. etc.
I hope it will soon be posted on YouTube.
Update: The imo important hour and one half interview can be seen on YouTube here. I believe she provides a true picture of the inside workings and current attitudes inside the PoR parliamentary fraction, particularly following Yanukovych's unprecedented visit to force his deputies to vote for a bill to provide amnesty to demonstrators conditional on the clearance of streets and buildings seized during protests.
Amongst her many revealing comments she claimed all that stands between a peaceful resolution to the current Ukrainian crisis and major bloodshed are 40-odd rebellious PoR parliamentary deputies. Even though they crumbled before Yanukovych a couple of days ago, they remain vital to any political resolution to the crisis.
Yanukovch is aware of this and will do his utmost to dissolve the Verkhovna Rada because, as Vitaliy Portnikov says, it offers an alternative platform for dialogue between EuroMaidan and the opposition.
Even though the president does not have the authority to dissolve parliament, current parliamentary speaker, and old-time Yanuk crony, Volodymyr Rybak does not exclude such a possibility.
Bohoslovska claimed the EuroMaidan was to be cleared by force on the 28th, but statements by Rinat Akhmetov and others denouncing violence, and phone calls from US VP Joe Biden, saved the day.
Also Yanukovych does not have the 50% support of the electorate to become a tyrant.
Many PoR deputies were prepared to cast a blind eye on the massive corruption by 'The Family' in recent years because signing of the Association Agreement was so much more important.. When signing the AA in Vilnius fell through last November, the situation became a different ball game.
After the Sochi Olympics Bohoslovska suggested there will be an attempt by Russia to 'nibble off' portions of Ukraine, particularly Luhansk and Kharkiv oblasts, and maybe Crimea. Kharkiv would be a big problem because although the local strongmen, Mayor Gennady Kernes and Regional State Administration head Mykhaylo Dobkin would be co-operative if such a turn of events were to occur, the local population, in particular, young students could react unpredictably. This scenario is being organised by Putin adviser Vladislav Surkov..
Bohoslovska suggested the recent sadistic kidnappings of EuroMaidan leaders, including Dmytro Bulatov, had the hallmarks of Kharkiv crime gangs on them, in particular of the 'Oplot' organisation.
She admitted that 90% of Ukraine's 11,000 judges were completely corrupt and should be replaced, and that this would be a good starting point in any major reform. She also admitted that although judge Kireyev who presided over the Tymoshenko trial was also 'bent', Tymoshenko was a crook in any case, and that had she been leading the opposition right now, there would have been a blood-bath.
Berkut can act with impunity...not one of their ranks has had to face criminal charges since the troubles began despite dozens and dozens of recorded incidents of excessive use of violence..torture, maltreatment etc. etc.
Thursday, January 30, 2014
PoR cheated last night's vote
What happened last night in the VR, when Yanukovych 'twisted the arms' of several dozen PoR deputies to ensure they vote for a pro-government motion granting 'amnesty' to those imprisoned during the current troubles, is well described in this liga.net piece.
http://news.liga.net/articles/politics/970720-metod_yanukovicha_rade_ne_dali_uregulirovat_konflikt_s_maydanom.htm
Observers will have noticed the serious non adherence to parliamentary procedure and blatant cheating took place. It would even embarrass a rough-a**d pub darts team committee.
Yanukovych allegedly threated renegade PoR deputies during a heated, closed meeting that he would disband parliament and prosecute those that did not adhere to the party line. [Most likely these are the same people that had 'lined their pockets with Yanukovych's blessing - so the 'owe him', so to speak].
Taras Chornovil, who for several years was a close adviser to Yanukovych considers many PoR deputies greatly fear the consequences of the current crisis being unresolved , and greatly fear personal sanctions, but they fear Yanukovych even more. Yanukovych could have permitted part of his fraction to vote with the opposition knowing that any new laws would not be adhered to in any case; but this would have been a politically fatal sign of weakness. Hence his unprecedented late-night rush to parliament to twist arms.
One opposition deputy, Lesya Orobets, claims she was punched in the stomach when she tried to stop fraudulent voting. She claims 10 - 15 votes were stolen, and will now revert back to wearing a bullet-proof vest in parliament.
Different presidential advisers are already giving different versions of what was actually voted for, because none of the parliamentary deputies and no parliamentary committees had sight of the new laws.
For many hours after the vote no official version of the new law was published - no journalist could obtain hard copy. Do demonstrators have to clear some defined buildings? Or all of the streets? Will everyone imprisoned since the trouble started be released? The whole thing was a complete farce.
Yanukovych and his party in parliament are looking a complete shambles. I have never before seen official PoR parliamentary talking heads so stressed out and shaken when being interviewed in the parliamentary lobbies.
The waverers in PoR, many of them heads of large business corporations, will not forgive Yanukovych for his thuggish attitude last night. PoR deputies are truly scared - they are most aware that the situation in Ukraine could not get very ugly indeed. Their advice now to one another is: "Get your families out - as fast as possible."
Parliament should be an independent branch of government. But now that serious cracks have appeared in the PoR fraction they will no longer be repairable.
As I have previously mentioned law enforcement agencies are also incompetent and discredited. They are allegedly being paid big bonuses 'up front' to do their work and are apparently demanding 'dollars only'....Without support from paid thugs, the titushky, they would be even weaker.
After Wednesday's vote in parliament, demonstrators and activists will be even less trustful and even more angry of the government, if that is possible..Pressure from western governments and organisations will not subside, but will grow ever stronger is there is any more serious violence...
http://news.liga.net/articles/politics/970720-metod_yanukovicha_rade_ne_dali_uregulirovat_konflikt_s_maydanom.htm
Observers will have noticed the serious non adherence to parliamentary procedure and blatant cheating took place. It would even embarrass a rough-a**d pub darts team committee.
Yanukovych allegedly threated renegade PoR deputies during a heated, closed meeting that he would disband parliament and prosecute those that did not adhere to the party line. [Most likely these are the same people that had 'lined their pockets with Yanukovych's blessing - so the 'owe him', so to speak].
Taras Chornovil, who for several years was a close adviser to Yanukovych considers many PoR deputies greatly fear the consequences of the current crisis being unresolved , and greatly fear personal sanctions, but they fear Yanukovych even more. Yanukovych could have permitted part of his fraction to vote with the opposition knowing that any new laws would not be adhered to in any case; but this would have been a politically fatal sign of weakness. Hence his unprecedented late-night rush to parliament to twist arms.
One opposition deputy, Lesya Orobets, claims she was punched in the stomach when she tried to stop fraudulent voting. She claims 10 - 15 votes were stolen, and will now revert back to wearing a bullet-proof vest in parliament.
Different presidential advisers are already giving different versions of what was actually voted for, because none of the parliamentary deputies and no parliamentary committees had sight of the new laws.
For many hours after the vote no official version of the new law was published - no journalist could obtain hard copy. Do demonstrators have to clear some defined buildings? Or all of the streets? Will everyone imprisoned since the trouble started be released? The whole thing was a complete farce.
Yanukovych and his party in parliament are looking a complete shambles. I have never before seen official PoR parliamentary talking heads so stressed out and shaken when being interviewed in the parliamentary lobbies.
The waverers in PoR, many of them heads of large business corporations, will not forgive Yanukovych for his thuggish attitude last night. PoR deputies are truly scared - they are most aware that the situation in Ukraine could not get very ugly indeed. Their advice now to one another is: "Get your families out - as fast as possible."
Parliament should be an independent branch of government. But now that serious cracks have appeared in the PoR fraction they will no longer be repairable.
As I have previously mentioned law enforcement agencies are also incompetent and discredited. They are allegedly being paid big bonuses 'up front' to do their work and are apparently demanding 'dollars only'....Without support from paid thugs, the titushky, they would be even weaker.
After Wednesday's vote in parliament, demonstrators and activists will be even less trustful and even more angry of the government, if that is possible..Pressure from western governments and organisations will not subside, but will grow ever stronger is there is any more serious violence...
Saturday, January 25, 2014
Rinat enters the fray
Rinat Akhmetov’s SCM Statement
25.01.2014
Civil unrest increased in the country over the past week and led to loss of life.
We must voice our position as human life is the absolute value.
We wish to express our deepest condolences to the families and relatives of those who lost their lives.
Business cannot keep silent when people are killed, a real danger of breakup of the country emerges, when a political crisis can lead to a deep economic recession and thus inevitably result in lower standards of living.
It is only by peaceful action that the political crisis can be resolved. Any use of force and weapons is unacceptable. With this scenario there will be no winners in Ukraine, only victims and losers. But most importantly, the use of force will not help to find a way out.
The only solution is to move from street riots and attempts to curb them [my bold text and italics] to constructive negotiations and results.
The negotiation participants must pursue the interests of the whole country. The whole country! And they must be ready to actually cooperate and find a compromise.
For the sake of the future of the entire Ukraine and each Ukrainian.
Source
Akmetov controls around two dozen or more deputies in parliament, enough to swing any vote, so this statement is v. significant.
His statement makes clear he is against a violent clearance of EuroMaidan..
Talks going on between warring parties this Saturday afternoon in Pres Administration building...
Tuesday, January 21, 2014
Violent clearance of Maidan will only escalate crisis to greater heights
Serhiy Vysotsky in Liga.net explains why most 'Regionals' should fear the destruction of EuroMaidan
Here are his thoughts:
A violent scenario will provoke a corresponding guerilla response, the first victims of which will be PoR politicians, the security forces and mid-order state officials
Its still difficult to comprehend what happened on Hrushevsky Street.
At its peak there were up to 30,000 people on that street on Sunday, up to five thousand of whom were actively involved in the clashes. Moreover, even if right-wing activist organizations/provocateurs where at the leading edge, then they were clearly not in the majority. The bulk were ordinary people who had just had a 'belly-full' of the current regime. If this was indeed provocation then its aim was not the clearance of Maidan, because this did not actually occur.
Some blame can be attached to the right-wing radicals or to AvtoMaydan activists for urging people to picket the Verkhovna Rada, but it is primarily the blind authorities who are to blame for the unfolding street battles.
Following the adoption of a package of repressive laws on January 16 it became clear to demonstrators that whether you picket a house of burn it down you'll get the same sentence - two years, so why hold back?
After last Sunday's EuroMaidan on January 19, the thousands of people who attended understood it was last opportunity to defend violated rights and freedoms. The passivity of opposition leaders did not correspond to the mood of those that had gathered or activists who knew the new laws threaten them to up to 15 years in prison.
When people feel that they have nothing to lose except the opportunity to be beaten and convicted, peaceful protest ends. This poses a big challenge to politicians and to the state because this violent mass of people who are ready to go to take extreme measures will not accept compromise.
The Klyuyev-Portnov-Lukash government arbitration commission is judged by protesters to be a cynical challenge. Andriy Klyuyev initiated violent attacks on the EuroMaidan late November. Olena Lukash stated that the police have the right to use force to the protesters, Andrei Portnov is the guy who oversaw the shameful January 16 laws.
Yanukovych will not make concessions, and the arbitration commission will regarded as a stalling tactic giving extra time for supplementary troops to be assembled in Kyiv. Therefore, the only chance for a political settlement exists only in Parliament.
The pro-government majority deputies, as well as judges and law enforcement officers, should now understand that if the mass protest is severely suppressed by means of military weaponry and people killed, they - the middle tier of power will be the first victims of the resulting guerilla warfare. Inevitably retaliatory terror in response to violent suppression will take place.
Many many thousands of people support the protester on Hrushevsky Street. The scale of the reaction to repression by the authorities in Kiev is difficult to imagine - it could be massive.
A small possibility for some political compromise still exists, and the personal political future of many 'Rgionals' still has some perspective. But when the first man in the street dies from a bullet the only question will be the personal physical security of parliamentary supporters of the government and its officials - and Ukraine may lose its statehood.
All that stands between crisis resolution and a scenario of full civil conflict is the wisdom of members of the Party of Regions faction and the sponsors of the party, as well as on the degree of international pressure on them.
What Vysotsky is proposing at is if the crisis deepens, revenge will be taken against PoR officials, judges and officials across the country.
Though in general coverage of the crisis in the Western press has been good, the sadistic behaviour of Berkut special forces has IMO not really sufficiently illuminated. e.g .as in this sickening video
As in previous weeks many journalists were again targetted and shot with rubber bullets, and also beaten. Just on Sunday and Monday, there were more than 20 seriously injured.
Taras Berezovets, a political analyst I rate, says: "An entirely new generation has grown up [in Ukraine] that does not know the "soviet" mentality. Politicians lag a long way behind . People are willing to participate in an armed confrontation. In the eyes of these people there is no fear. Attempts of dispersal will fail..."
Demonstrators have nothing to lose. Their life-chances have been constantly blocked and crushed for years, while those few in charge have bled the country dry and disgustingly flaunted the wealth they have stolen. The country is now almost bankrupt....The hatred and contempt demonstrators have for the ruling authorities resulting from years of humiliation and injustice is massive..hence the violence.
Here are his thoughts:
A violent scenario will provoke a corresponding guerilla response, the first victims of which will be PoR politicians, the security forces and mid-order state officials
Its still difficult to comprehend what happened on Hrushevsky Street.
At its peak there were up to 30,000 people on that street on Sunday, up to five thousand of whom were actively involved in the clashes. Moreover, even if right-wing activist organizations/provocateurs where at the leading edge, then they were clearly not in the majority. The bulk were ordinary people who had just had a 'belly-full' of the current regime. If this was indeed provocation then its aim was not the clearance of Maidan, because this did not actually occur.
Some blame can be attached to the right-wing radicals or to AvtoMaydan activists for urging people to picket the Verkhovna Rada, but it is primarily the blind authorities who are to blame for the unfolding street battles.
Following the adoption of a package of repressive laws on January 16 it became clear to demonstrators that whether you picket a house of burn it down you'll get the same sentence - two years, so why hold back?
After last Sunday's EuroMaidan on January 19, the thousands of people who attended understood it was last opportunity to defend violated rights and freedoms. The passivity of opposition leaders did not correspond to the mood of those that had gathered or activists who knew the new laws threaten them to up to 15 years in prison.
When people feel that they have nothing to lose except the opportunity to be beaten and convicted, peaceful protest ends. This poses a big challenge to politicians and to the state because this violent mass of people who are ready to go to take extreme measures will not accept compromise.
The Klyuyev-Portnov-Lukash government arbitration commission is judged by protesters to be a cynical challenge. Andriy Klyuyev initiated violent attacks on the EuroMaidan late November. Olena Lukash stated that the police have the right to use force to the protesters, Andrei Portnov is the guy who oversaw the shameful January 16 laws.
Yanukovych will not make concessions, and the arbitration commission will regarded as a stalling tactic giving extra time for supplementary troops to be assembled in Kyiv. Therefore, the only chance for a political settlement exists only in Parliament.
The pro-government majority deputies, as well as judges and law enforcement officers, should now understand that if the mass protest is severely suppressed by means of military weaponry and people killed, they - the middle tier of power will be the first victims of the resulting guerilla warfare. Inevitably retaliatory terror in response to violent suppression will take place.
Many many thousands of people support the protester on Hrushevsky Street. The scale of the reaction to repression by the authorities in Kiev is difficult to imagine - it could be massive.
A small possibility for some political compromise still exists, and the personal political future of many 'Rgionals' still has some perspective. But when the first man in the street dies from a bullet the only question will be the personal physical security of parliamentary supporters of the government and its officials - and Ukraine may lose its statehood.
All that stands between crisis resolution and a scenario of full civil conflict is the wisdom of members of the Party of Regions faction and the sponsors of the party, as well as on the degree of international pressure on them.
What Vysotsky is proposing at is if the crisis deepens, revenge will be taken against PoR officials, judges and officials across the country.
Though in general coverage of the crisis in the Western press has been good, the sadistic behaviour of Berkut special forces has IMO not really sufficiently illuminated. e.g .as in this sickening video
As in previous weeks many journalists were again targetted and shot with rubber bullets, and also beaten. Just on Sunday and Monday, there were more than 20 seriously injured.
Taras Berezovets, a political analyst I rate, says: "An entirely new generation has grown up [in Ukraine] that does not know the "soviet" mentality. Politicians lag a long way behind . People are willing to participate in an armed confrontation. In the eyes of these people there is no fear. Attempts of dispersal will fail..."
Demonstrators have nothing to lose. Their life-chances have been constantly blocked and crushed for years, while those few in charge have bled the country dry and disgustingly flaunted the wealth they have stolen. The country is now almost bankrupt....The hatred and contempt demonstrators have for the ruling authorities resulting from years of humiliation and injustice is massive..hence the violence.
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