Poisoners in Russia, claims Yushchenko

The last edition of the "Sunday Times" informs its readers that "President [Yushchenko] claims Kremlin is shielding his would-be killers"

Good job it was dioxin and not polonium..

Ukrainian intellectuals warn of Russian threat

Several days ago the big-selling 'Segodnya' ran this story on "Ukrainian intellectuals'" appeal to the world to save Ukraine from Russia. I've translated some portions below:

They call on the USA, Great Britain, France and China, the guarantors of the Budapest memorandum, to take part in an International conference in order to provide security guarantees for Ukraine.

The members of the intelligentsia have also appealed to leading organs in the European Union "on the need for a clear and unambiguous position on the question of the guarantee of the national sovereignty of Ukraine, and to express a warning against any form of interference by Russia into the internal affairs of Ukraine".

The members of the intelligentsia note: "The Russian leadership have consciously taken a course on the dismantling of the current security system, the key direction of which has become the aim of subordinating Ukraine in order to fulfill the geo-strategic interests of Russia".

According to their appeal, "the consequence of such a strategy is the rapid escalation of stress in bilateral relations. Unprecedented aggravation has taken the form of information warfare against Ukraine".

"In Russian society Ukrainians are presented as the enemy, and Ukraine is labelled as the main destabiliser of relations between the European Union and Russia," they add.

Commenting on the President of Russia's recent message to the President of Ukraine and the new Russian legislation on the use of the Russian armed forces beyond the limits Russian Federation, the intellectuals claim:

"For the first time in many years signs are appearing that the Kremlin is not excluding use of power in its arsenal of foreign policy tools relative to Ukraine".

"The subordination of Ukraine to Russia's strategy will renew the division of Europe, will carry a direct threat to the international and national security of the European Union, will lead to a decrease in the overall level of confidence and security in Europe, and will escalate tension and resistance in foreign relations as a whole", warn the signatories. They include former President Leonid Kravchuk, former top man at the Kyiv Mohyla Academy, Vyacheslav Bryukhovetskiy, who is now working for Rinat Akmetov's Foundation for the Development of Ukraine, former ambassador to Great Britain, Serhiy Komisarenko, Levko Lukyanenko, and many others.

Full text here

BBC radio report on Donbass Arena opening ceremony

Listen to a 5-minute BBC Radio 4 "From Our Own Correspondent report, broadcast on Saturday 5th September 2009, on last weekend's opening ceremony at the new Schaktar Donetsk Arena here. The report starts about 7 minutes into the 30 minute-long audio clip.

Also worth watching is Shaktar's official video of the event here

Con artists all..

British PM Gordon Brown is not the only major world figure doing dubious and disreputable deals with Libyan supremo colonel Gaddafi. At the 40th anniversary celebrations of the coup that brought Gaddafi to power, Ukraine's Prime Minister, Yulia Tymoshenko was amongst the first foreign leaders to greet him.

According to the 'Independent' newspaper : "Prim and pretty with her braided hair, she seemed like a girl receiving a school prize. Her presence was among the more obvious clues as to why the rest of the world puts up with Ronald Reagan's "mad dog" of the Middle East. At least one half of the Ukrainian political establishment is desperate to break clear of its energy dependency on Russia and the political limitations that come with that."

Don't be fooled by the looks - Tymoshenko has had experience in the past of dealing with autocratic and 'loopy' leaders of oil and gas-rich countries to secure beneficial deals for her own [former] companies and for Ukrainian consumers.

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I also particularly liked this story from today's 'Independent' about a 17-year-old graffiti artist who stole several pencils that formed part of a sculpture by one of Viktor Pinchuk's favourite artists, Damien Hirst. [Pinchuk's gallery in Kyiv is currently staging a major retrospective Hirst exhibition].

The teenager was arrested by British police and released on bail - he is waiting to find whether he will be formally charged with causing damage to an iconic artwork worth, wait for it, £10m! The pencils were valued at £1/2 million. [They were, apparently, in 'as-new' condition, but it is not clear whether they were the sort that have an eraser rubber at the upper end.]

'Philantropist' Pinchuk, who made his money in no small part thanks to to his father-in-law, former Ukrainian president Kuchma, has been spending millions on what some commentators regard as "not masterpieces..[but] the icons of idiocy".

Now however, the contemporary art market is in meltdown and prices are plummetting. Still, easy come - easy go I suppose.

p.s. It's an inspiration to know that the British police and legal system are ruthlessly pursuing these adolescent thieves and vandals who have no respect for art..

Kremlin further out of step

Listen to a concise 5 minute audio clip from the 'Guardian's' Luke Harding explaining yesterday's events in Gdansk and the new Kremlin doctrine directed at its neighbours, here

And read his article on some dubious documents on Poland's supposed dealings with Hitler produced in Moscow yesterday, here

Poland - supporting Ukrainian nationalists in the 30's? I don't think so..

Poland is start of long, uncomfortable season for Russia

Amongst the many articles on the commemoration to mark the 70th anniversary of the start of WW2 in Gdansk today, I particularly liked one entitled "We must not forget the real causes of the war", by the acclaimed British historian Norman Davies.

"As the Russian government must realise, however, Poland will only be the start of a long, uncomfortable season. After Poland, it will be Finland's turn, and the 70th anniversary of the Winter War. Stalin's aggression against Finland in November 1939 was every bit as blatant as his actions against Poland. His German partner was not involved, and the despatch of a million troops into a neighbouring country to deport the entire population of the frontier area can hardly be described as the doings of a neutral well-wisher. It led to the expulsion of the USSR from the League of Nations. And after Finland, there will be Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Romania. At every stage, there will be scenes of peace-loving tanks, of executions and deportations, and of weeping patriots..."

Hence the current propaganda war orchestrated by the Kremlin?

p.s. PM Tymoshenko has spent a few interesting few days lately. Over the weekend she was in Donetsk for the opening of Shakhtar's new stadium and was warmly embraced by Rinat Akhmetov, while Beyonce Knowles was singing on stage. Today she met Vladimir Putin in Gdansk, and flew off to Libya for Colonel Muammar Gaddafi's bash.

Medvedev on WW2

Portion of a TV interview with President Medvedev on TV Channel Rossia's 'News of the Week' Programme, August 30, 2009:

Interviewer: You and I are talking today on the eve of an important historic date: September 1, the 70th anniversary of the beginning of World War Two.

Now, in Europe, there is an unbelievably wide range of assessments as to why this horrible tragedy was started. What are your thoughts on this matter?

DMITRY MEDVEDEV: These events were the greatest tragedy of the 20th century. It was a tragedy that took the lives of about 70 million people, according to various estimates, as this figure has never been fully determined. Thus, there can be no other view of those events. Of course, there is also the issue of how these events are interpreted in different nations. And here, unfortunately, there are some clear setbacks.

Just 20 or 30 years ago, even within the so-called political and ideological blocs that stood in opposition to each other – by which I mean the West and the East, the Warsaw Treaty and NATO – everyone agreed that Nazism had been rightfully condemned by history and that Nazi criminals who were judged in the Nuremberg trials were serving out a just punishment. This was the case, even despite our differences in ideological approaches, which is why I specifically brought it up.

Now, we share relatively common values, and we no longer argue about what we see as the most important values in our societies, the values that should serve as the foundation for our nations, and how we should build our economies.

Nevertheless, we are seeing some astounding trends. Governments in the Baltic States and even Ukraine are now essentially pronouncing former Nazi accomplices to be their national heroes who fought for the liberation of their nations. Of course, everyone knows what really happened, but everyone looks down in shame, so as to avoid souring relations.

There is another situation: the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly just recently grouped together Germany and the Soviet Union, pronouncing them to be equally responsible for World War Two. Now this, quite frankly, is a flat-out lie. One can have different attitudes toward the Soviet Union; one can be critical of the Soviet Union’s political regime and the leaders of what was then our country, but this is the very issue I was just talking about – the issue of who started the war, which country killed people and which country saved people, millions of people, and which country ultimately saved Europe.

I have one final thought regarding this matter. We really must treat our history with a lot of care, especially concerning those issues that were assessed in the same way throughout the world. We cannot destroy the institutions that were formed as a result of those tragic events. We cannot disregard all those things in order to favour some states that are currently developing and are in the process of forming their national identity. We must think about the future. And this, I think, is one of the most important lessons that can be learned from the 70th anniversary of the beginning of the 20th century’s greatest catastrophe – the beginning of World War Two.

These comments are about 24 minutes into this video of the interview.

Medvedev's views are already causing a stir..

Nabucco - an opera turning into a gas war

I can recommend this well-written analysis by Daniel Freifeld, from 'Foreign Policy':

"The Great Pipeline Opera - Inside the European pipeline fantasy that became a real-life gas war with Russia."

BBC report on Ukrainian agriculture

Do not miss an excellent report from BBC's 24th August 'Newsnight' program on Ukrainian agriculture, and how western companies are moving in. A summary here

The report can be watched via this link here and available for just a few of days or so..

Beautifully filmed and edited too..

Why Medvedev is not right

Below I have loosely translate several portions from a blog by the big-selling Russian language 'Segodnya's' chief editor, Igor Guzhva.

"Why Medvedev is not right - The President of Russia is helping the national-fascists by his statements.

I am ready to put my name to practically all of the points raised in Medvedev's letter to Yushchenko. But, I am a citizen of the Ukraine - I have the right such to say these things to the President of my country. I have the right to criticize his policy of integration into NATO, since in my opinion, it does not correspond to the national interests of Ukraine. I have the right to criticize the policy of forced Ukrainization. But here Mr. Medvedev, as the President of a foreign state, does not have a right to call Yushchenko to account.

Medvedev's efforts will ensure that all Ukrainians who speak out against NATO or against Ukrainization, will automatically be treated by the authorities as fifth columnists of Russia. They will say: "Look, those bastards are singing to the tune of the Russian aggressor..."

What is worse, Medvedev is pushing many Ukrainians who are wavering into the camp of the nationalists. According to data from opinion polls, 70-75% of the population of Ukraine relate very favourably to Russia, they want them to be friends, to develop links etc. This actually is a pro-Russian majority. But only about 25-30% of Ukrainians should be considered as political Russians, i.e. those, who are in favor of the re-creation a political union with Russia in one form or another.

The remainder, i.e. 40-50% of the pro-Russian majority do not want spoil relations with Russia in any way, they want open boundaries, they are not ready to go in NATO, particularly as the overwhelming majority do not love the Americans, and they do not need any forced Ukrainization. But they have become accustomed to independence. For many of them it has become valuable, and they are fearful of changes that could lead to its possible loss. They are fearful of the reaction of the West and of the threat of isolation of the country.

Many of them, in general, are not against even some form of economic integration with Russia, but do not support major changes whereby Russia would [again] pose as the 'older brother'. When Russia adopts this pose and starts to talk on the lines of what Ukraine should or should not do, or suggesting the country be split...then these 40-45% begin to get agitated and, many of them become the prey of the nationalists who shout about the Russian threat...

There is a greater task - of moulding a new Ukrainian patriotism, based not on hatred for Russia, but on the respect for its sovereignty and uniqueness, and on its protection, including, also, from the West.

But the statement of Medvedev, does it help or hinder the accomplishment of these objectives? Certainly it hinders. It throws into the camp of the enemies of Russia and nationalists the Central Ukrainian ordinary Joe who does not like the Americans for their bombing of Yugoslavia, who supports the Russian team in the European championship, who despises Yushchenko, and curses "Yulka" the fibber [brekhukhu], fears the Banderites, respects Putin and celebrates on May 9th his main commemorative day. But the ordinary Joe does not want for someone from the outside, neither from Russia nor the West, to dictate what is right for Ukraine and what is not.

There are many such Joes, not only in central Ukraine, but also in the southeast, particularly amongst Russian language speakers.

And without such Joes we cannot break the back of nationalism. So it is better for our Russian brothers to remain silent...

Generally, when I speak to different public figures who speak out against NATO, for the Russian language and so forth I always give them one piece of advice. Never rely on Russia, on its forces, on its money and connections. In Moscow, alas, no intelligent policy with respect to the Ukraine has appeared. Any that exists is deeply intertwined with corrupt connections (a typical example is Rosukrenergo, or an older example isYeESU - essentially, the joint business of Tymoshenko, Lazarenko and corrupt officials in Gazprom, the Russian Ministry of Defense and other departments...

The question of entry into NATO and curtailment of forced Ukrainization must be transferred away from the plane of Russian-Ukrainian intergovermental relations (which Yushchenko wants, with the aid of Dmitriy Medvedev) into the plane of purely intra-Ukrainian policy..."

p.s. Igor Guzhva's views do not necessarily coincide with LEvko's, particularly on the language issue, but his blog gives an insight into the mindset of many Ukrainians.

Biggest national flag to be unfurled in Donetsk

I thought the following recent article on the 'Novosti Donetska' site to be quite revealing. I've translated portions below:

"Logvinenko, Bliznyuk and Lukyanchenko to unfurl largest [Ukrainian] national flag in the world

Ukrainian National Flag Day celebrations will take place in front of the Donetsk Oblast State Administration building, with the participation of the chairman of Donetsk O.S.A. V.I. Logvinenko, chairman of the Donetsk Oblast Council A.M.Bliznyuk, and Donetsk city head A.A.Lukyanchenko, on August 23 starting at 9.00 a.m.

Together with the representatives from oblast community youth organizations and those of Donetsk, the oblast and city leaders will assemble around the flag - the symbol of the unity and consolidation [sobornost] of Ukraine. The flag measures 30X45 m.

The next day, on August 24, [Independence Day] at 15.00, the largest national flag of Ukraine in the world will be carried along Khreshchatyk by representatives of all-Ukrainian community youth organizations to the Maydan Nezalezhnosti where leaders of state, well-known politicians, businessmen, artists and athletes will join the celebrations...

The article goes on to expain that the initiative to manufacture this flag came from Donetsk in 2007, and it has since been unfurled at at various historical remembrances, at historical sites etc. The flag was sewn by a Donetsk miner's widow and was later displayed around the country by young people from that city.

p.s. Also check out this from today's FT, which may or may not be connected to the above..

p.p.s. the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact was signed 70 years ago tomorrow. More on this here and here

Russia and Germany stitching up Ukraine again?

"World Agenda: Merkel and Medvedev share Ukraine's Munich moment"

This story has quickly been picked up in the Ukrainian media e.g. here and here

Will Angela now explain her lack of response?

Maybe her silence was a thank-you for last month's declaration by Russia's defence ministry that it was Poland that had provoked the second world war by refusing to yield to Germany's "modest" ultimatum demands in 1939. All Poland's fault then..The Molotov-Ribbentrop pact - very reasonably under the circumstances..

Polonium -210 trails in Hamburg...deaths of Russian journalists..hardly worth mentioning..

Tymoshenko responds to Medvedev's letter and video blog

Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has responded to President Medvedev's nasty letter and video blog [see previous blog] on the official Ukrainian Cabinet website. A mangled English version has also appeared, which I've corrected slightly for clarity:

"Following the answer of the President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko to the address of the President of the Russian Federation Dmytro Medvedev the Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko made a statement concerning Ukrainian-Russian relations.

“Despite the fact that foreign policy appears a constitution prerogative of the President I cannot keep silent about recent events in Ukrainian-Russian relations. In view of their importance I cannot but [be concerned] bother [about] with a high [the high temperature of polemics] degree of the public dispute in this topic.

The feeling of responsibility for the country is a good way for every politician to keep emotions [in check] in any situations, even hard ones.

As Prime Minister I have always done and still do all my best to deepen mutually beneficial cooperation between Ukraine and Russia, first of all, in economic sphere which is a responsibility of the Government. I will act the same way taking any other position entrusted to me by Ukrainian people.

Relations with Russia have always been built and will be built by me on [as] equals on the bas[e] of national interests, mutual benefit, respect to the sovereignty and territorial integrity.

At [Along with] this, Ukraine will determine its foreign and internal policy independently, without any external interference, including in the humanitarian area. We will be learning [studying] our own past, will be coping with our present matters, [and] will independently build our own future.

Realization by Ukraine of our [its] sovereign rights, forming of the current policy of the nation is not, [viewed] and can never be viewed as a policy directed against anyone.

We are always ready to hear and entertain thoughts of our partners on East and West alike, taking into account their interests, but meddling into our internal matters is [impermissable] unaffordable.

I would like that Ukrainian and Russian diplomats of all levels could solve the problems, which are inevitable in relations between any other countries, not by way of confrontation and public dispute but at the negotiation table.

I also consider [it to be] as inadmissible any pause in the development of cooperation between Ukraine and Russia. Our Government will be acting [to overcome] reasoning from this.

Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko

More on this story from AFP here

p.s. maybe the translators in the Cabinet of Ministers are all away on holiday..

The Russians are coming! The Russians are coming!

Watch, President Medvedev, the man in black, deliver a beligerent 5 minute video [with English subtitles], set against a balmy evening seascape, in which he describes the rapid deterioration of Russian/Ukrainian relations: here

What is it with these Russian height-challenged testosterone-charged men?

Reminds me of this old British advert for Cadbury's chocolates

Maybe fearing that his boss may have overstepped the mark, deputy head of the Kremlin's administration Aleksey Gromov says today that Dmitriy Medvedev's statement on the bad blood between Moscow and Kyiv was not directed against the Ukrainian people, but only against President Victor Yushchenko personally. [Whipping a dead horse then..]

Turning off gas supplies in the midst of winter was not directed at Ukraine's population either, I suppose..

p.s. The man in black, with Yanukovych and Putin, possibly chewing Cadbury's chocolates here

Consumerism will never make you happy

Although I have criticised many of Patriarch Kirill's pronouncements during his visit to Ukraine he did make some sensible observations on the dangers of what some writers have called 'turbo-consumerism'. Below are links to two recent newspaper articles which explain why the insatiable pursuit of "more" will never make people happy.

on "Enough is enough: learn to want less" and "Addicted to Shopping"

Will Ukraine's ruling elites take any notice? Not a chance..

Patriarch Kirill's visit to Ukraine a success? Hmm..

According to pravda.ru, during Patriarch Kirill's visit to Ukraine: "the idea of the "Holy Rus," or "the great Eastern-Slavic civilization" as a spiritual and historical, rather than a political, entity capable of saying something important to today's secularized world without forfeiting the link between the earthly and the divine, served as the leitmotif throughout all of the Patriarch's speeches."

During one Ukrainian TV appearance, he said this:

"By no means do I oppose the Western world — I know the West well and lived in the West, - but why, in dialogue with the Western world, do we accept the role of 'the led' so easily? What values do they offer us? What unique thing does this rich civilisation tell us today? Why do we give up our primacy so easily?

We are ready to enter a united Europe, into any other Europe. [But do] We enter there to receive ideas? To graft a certain correct form of life[style]? [Do] We enter there for the sake of our stomach and our pockets? Sure, this too is quite good. But let's bring our values [too]; but I do not believe that they will be ready to accept [these] values there. However, to enter as 'the led', losing spiritual primacy, renouncing our tragical, but unique, incomparable experiences, raises major doubts with me.

I think that our unity - the unity of the spiritual space of Sacred Rus, historical Rus, is a civilizing project of huge force which is not destined to be led. It is destined to generate ideas, and this is now taking place.. We have a potential for the development of a genuine dialogue between the East and the West, but not the dialogue between a horseman with a horse..."

Three years ago Adrian White, an analytic social psychologist at the University of Leicester School of Psychology, in Great Britain analysed data published by UNESCO, the CIA, the New Economics Foundation, the WHO, the Veenhoven Database, the Latinbarometer, the Afrobarometer, and the UNHDR, to create a global projection of subjective well-being: the first world map of happiness.

Studies elsewhere have produced results similar to those obtained by Adrian White.

Secular meritocratic European countries, with high standards of living, long life expectancy, excellent education, health and welfare services score very well in these comparative studies, whilst Russia, Ukraine and other former Soviet Socialist Republics fare particularly badly. For example, in Adrian White's study Russia lies at a miserable 167th position out of 178 countries. In Ukraine, the young, and particularly the ambitious and dynamic are most conscious of these great differences. I do not believe Patriarch Kirill's messages about Sacred Rus or 'the great Eastern-Slavic civilization' having anything important to say to the secularized world, or to Western European neighbours, will make much impression on these people. The man will not be taken seriously, even if he himself thinks his trip was a success..

Splashing around in the Black Sea*

Something to think about from 'The Guardian': "Stormy outlook over the Black Sea"

Why the Russia Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol is of no benefit to Russia, and why Crimea is not the hot-spot some imagine is explained in this piece from 'Gazeta.ru'

[Maybe more on this later]

*Putin doing the butterfly..while on holiday -"It may have a fug of raw, sweating masculinity about it, but it's also the most irritating of all strokes. It's splashy and unsociable, an uncompromising stroke that pays no heed to the elderly gentleman choking on chlorinated backwash in the neighbouring municipal [swimming pool] lane.."

Center for American Progress video on Ukraine

Watch a one and a half hour video of last week's presentations at the Center for American Progress by former Assistant Secretary of State David Kramer, former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Steven Pifer, and the brilliant James Sherr, head of the Russia and Eurasia program at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, discussing Ukraine’s upcoming elections, the Ukrainian economy, U.S.-Ukraine relations under the Obama administration, and the impact of the "reset" of U.S.-Russia relations on Ukraine.

Volodymyr Lytvyn was supposed to have attended too, but for some pukach reason he failed to show up.

Update: Also check out this insightful piece - '10 years of Putin', from stratfor.com, which explains why Russia is as it is..

Holy smoke! Beyonce in Donbass!

I can heartily recommend this excellent analysis by Ivan Krastev, entitled "The guns of August: non-event with consequences", on the political fallout, one year on after the Russia-Georgia war of August 2008.

The author explains why the most important outcome of the war was "Russia's unashamed affirmation as a revisionist power". He claims Russia's worldview is shaped by a profound sense of insecurity and a deep suspicion of the current world order based on economic and political interdependency...

Ukraine's finest soccer stadium, the Donbass Arena, new home of 2009 UEFA cup-winners Shaktar Dontesk, will be opened with a spectacular grand show on 29th of this month. 'Segodnya' reports there are strong rumours that top US pop singer Beyonce Knowles could be top of the bill. ['Segodnya' and Shaktar share the same owner .] There had also been rumours that Madonna could also possibly be performing...

Would the Patriarch approve? Check out this video..

Incidentally, former president Leonid Kuchma and VR speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn, about whom Pukach is no doubt loudly singing, attended an outdoor service during Patriarch Kirill's visit to Sevastopol a couple of days ago. Very moving...

Did ZZ Top attend too?

Kirill fighting the pull of the European magnet..

The head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill's 10-day visit to Ukraine has caused some disquiet, as illustrated by this recent blog on the 'Segodnya' site entitled: "The patriarch as a civilizing tool - a hyperboloid of engineer Putin" .

The author of the article disparages Patriarch Kirill's criticism of a recent OSCE declaration which equates the crimes of Nazism and Soviet Communism. [The Patriarch follows the standard Kremlin line that Stalin's crimes were merely 'excesses']. The author considers the Patriarch was given a far too open and unchallenged platform on Inter TV to air his views, and describes, what was, in his opinion, the main purpose of Patriarch Kirill's visit to Ukraine.

I've translated some portions below:

"The main message of the head of Moscow Orthodoxy was that "Sacred Russia" should not be led [or be guided] by the West". These words mean, that according to the patriarch, European (or so-called western) values do not suit the so-called Slavic mentality. The Patriarch, in the name of the church, declares that there is a certain Slavic mentality for which a special approach is necessary; and the foundation of this mentality is a certain "Sacred Russia", which, in the given context, is opposed to Western values and Ukrainian attempts to rewrite history."

The author challenges these ideas, and continues: "The aim of the "Sacred Russia" project consists only of maintaining the status quo...maintaining a spiritual influence over Ukraine which is boldly rushing into 'the abyss of Western values', (it is well known, the majority of Ukrainians support idea of entry into the European Union). The "Sanctity of Russia" is an abstract concept that not all orthodox believers can explain. It counterposes the Eastern slavic world with other orthodox peoples, e.g. Romanians and Georgians. This idea is dangerous as it declares the supremacy of one set of values over others, and carries the risk of conflict which could result in the construction of the new Iron Curtain. The main question is where its border will be - on the western, or on the eastern border of Ukraine.

In essence, the statement that Slavs do not accept European values is similar to the statement that Ukrainian officials cannot live without taking bribes. It is grandiose lie. Why should European values suit orthodox Romanians, but not orthodox Ukrainians?

Core European values include:

The preeminence of the rights of the individual

A well-developed system of social security

A well-developed system of local government

Total, or at least near-total absence of corruption

Tolerant attitude to all minority groups

Equality of people before the law and in courts

Europe without borders and customs

Secular society with full freedom of worship

Certainly, the church in its current state cannot support the points set out above for the reason that after the implementation of European legislation in Ukraine or Russia, the church would lose all levers of influence on the state... Freedom of worship does not suit the orthodox church, and in Russia legislation very rigidly regulates registration of new religious communities - lessons in Orthodoxy have already been introduced in schools.

It seems that Moscow wishes to offer Ukraine the same system of preservation of so-called "traditional values" via the mouth of the Patriarch with the help of some kind of "spiritual uplift", to enable the elite, which we so hate with all our heart, to remain in power.

For the Kremlin the main thing is that the border of European values remains on the western border of Ukraine, and Ukraine remains in sphere of influence of the Kremlin. The patriarch has arrived to rescue the Ukrainian elite, to offer it a way to eternally remain in power and 'in the money'.

The irony of the situation is that huge numbers of Ukrainians have travelled in Europe, studied in Europe, lived in Europe and know than in the EU the organisation of life differs from the organisation of life at home, so for the normally-developed person all these fairy tales on the Slavic mentality are simply nonsense. European values are craved in Ukraine and Ukraine will come to them, as will Russia. The question is only at what rates. To be an opponent of Western values in the modern world is the same as trying to stop a million hedgehogs with a naked backside. It will happen, even if all of the advocates of "Sacred Russia" try to do this..."

Incidentally, the chief editor of 'Segodnya', in his blog defends Patriarch Kirill's anti-European stance (and also reveals a surprising ignorance of attitudes amongst citizens of the EU's newest Eastern European member countries).

But I'd bet he drives a Beemer or a Merc or one of those other disgusting European motors ..

What a hypocrite..

Partriarch Kirill, in an extended TV appearance on Ukrainian television on Tuesday, spoke of the dangers of a consumerist society, the dangers of rampant greed, the fleeting satisfaction of acquiring expensive material goods and baubles..the sinfulness of inequality of wealth in society...impetuous consumption..and so on..

"..it is very important to learn Christian аsceticism," he said. "Аsceticism is not about living in a cave, аsceticism is also an ability to regulate ideas and the condition of the heart. Asceticism is the victory of a person over lust, over passions, over instinct. And it is important, that this quality be possessed by both rich and poor.. we should learn to control our instincts, our passions. And then the civilisation which we will construct will not be a consumer[ist] civilization..."

p.s. asceticism - "an austere, simple way of life in which persons renounce material pleasures and devote their energy to moral or religious purpose"

p.p.s. - see previous post..

Give us today our daily bread... and a $30K wristwatch..

Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and All Russia is currently on a lengthy and controversial visit to Ukraine.

It seems he likes expensive wristwatches..

p.s. President Barack Obama's favourite watch costs about 100 times less...

p.p.s. ..it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God...

Russian bikers 'invade' Crimea - with Putin's blessing

A couple of days ago I read good piece of analysis from a recent "Harvard International Review", by Andreas Umland. [Thanks UkrToday] It includes this passage:

"...in 2008, the Moscow leadership demonstrated in Georgia – not the least to Kiev - that it is prepared to use military force to defend vital interests in her "near abroad." Many Russian politicians have let it be known, in public, that the Crimea’s majority Russian ethnic makeup places the peninsula within Moscow's natural sphere of influence. Some even see Crimea as a part of Russia's historic territory."

Today 'Segodnya' carries this article which I've loosely translated:

"Biker's rally in Crimea seen off by a leather-jacketed Putin

Russian bikers stage their [motorcycle] rally in Sevastopol

Russian bikers held the main event of the Russian motorcycle world calendar, their 13th [annual] biker show, for the first time, in Crimea. For many years, with support of the authorities and hundreds admirers, its home had been in the Kaliningrad region of Russia where it had become a huge event. This year it was decided to commemorate the 65th anniversary of the liberation of Sevastopol and stage it in Crimea, where up to about 7 thousand bikers took part.

Besides Ukrainians, and organizers of the event - Russians, children from many countries also participated. From Russia they brought a flag which was handed to them by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. In general the dominant theme of the rally was ideological. Appeals for unity of all Slavs were constantly aired, including during a performance on stage by well-known Russian 'rocker' Konstantin Kintchev.

The leader of one of Russian biker gangs, Andrey Septenok, nicknamed Hans, shared his impressions of the event with 'Segodnya'. "We left Moscow on July7th. Putin himself came to the biker centre to see us off. He appeared in a leather jacket and 'shades'. He wrote a card of greeting and presented us with a flag. It lifted everyone's spirits! We travelled for three days to Sevastopol - through Kursk, Belgorod, Zaporozhye arriving on the night of the 10th in Sevastopol.

A stage was set up there. We had bought tickets for 400 roubles earlier at home, for the concert. In the evening we pitched a tent with the children. The concert was brilliant: Kintchev and his Alisa, "Aria", "The King and the Clown", and "Vopli Vidoplyasova". Then they showed a war chronicle film about the liberation of Sevastopol. I'm an old biker, but it's the first time I saw so many people".

The 'Segodyna' piece is illustrated with a photo entitled: "Friendship. Russian and Ukrainian flags [well, one anyway] fluttered over the bikers. "

The story just makes LEvko feel a bit uneasy..

Ukraine's good fortune

Worth reading: this excellent piece from the FT's Chrystia Freeland entitled: "Russia’s free media find a haven in Ukraine"

Here's a portion:

"The Kremlin sees Ukraine’s diverse and messy political culture as an exploitable weakness – and many Ukrainians and their western supporters despairingly agree. But, in separate conversations, the Russian journalistic refugees all argued that Ukraine’s regional divisions were the essential underpinning of its democracy, and the chief reason the country had diverged from Russia’s neo-authoritarian path.

“I don’t idealise the Ukrainian political class,” Kisiliev told me. “There are as many cynical, corrupt politicians here who would spit on democratic values as in Russia. But Ukraine’s good fortune is that, because of history, culture and geography, Ukraine is divided into a few big regions, each of which has its own culture and politics. These are also the zones of influence of various financial groups. None of those groups has the financial or electoral power to monopolise power – which happened in Russia, where Gazprom and the St Petersburg Chekists [the cabal of former KGB officers associated with Putin] usurped all political power.”

Central to this view of diversity as a fuel for democracy is the exiles’ confidence that all of Ukraine’s elites – including the Russian-speaking eastern ones – are committed to Ukrainian statehood. “The idea of a pro-Russian line in Ukrainian politics is a myth – they are all pro-Ukrainian now,” Kagalovsky said. Yet in the Kremlin, that “myth” is at the heart of policy towards Ukraine. Moscow takes as its starting point the idea that the two countries occupy a connected, if not common, cultural and social space. From there it is a short step to the Putin regime’s conviction that the two countries’ political paths should likewise run in parallel."

UK parliamentary defence committee says, "Get tough with Russia"

"However desirable co-operation with Russia may be, it should not come at the price of accepting the legitimacy of a Russian sphere of influence.." More here

Ruling elite secure outside of the law

Members of the ruling elite, have recently been allegedly involved in major criminal acts, including a possible brutal murder, but are quick to accuse each other of flouting law.

President Yushchenko's son, Andriy allegedly recently repeatedly fired a hand gun in the direction of a former deputy minister of emergency affairs after a night-time road traffic altercation.

This is not the first time he has been involved in such an incident. Just over three years ago a member of Kyiv's prosecutor's office was allegedly assaulted and shot at by Andriy and his bodyguard, also following a road traffic carve-up.

Who has the key to the "black-box"?

FT reports:

"Progress was made in talks aimed at preventing the latest Russia-Ukraine gas dispute from becoming a full-blown crisis, the European Commission reported on Monday.
Participants at the meeting in Brussels, including the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, stressed that any financial assistance to help the recession-battered Ukrainian government pay its bills would be contingent on continued reform of its gas sector.

They also lowered their estimates for the amount of support Ukraine would need to fill its own gas needs and serve European customers through the winter. One attendee put the figure as low as $2bn – or less than half of previous estimates.

“I think we have a much better sense coming out of this meeting what sort of figure we are looking at, and that figure is certainly less than $4.2bn,” a Commission spokesperson said.

The threat of an imminent supply cut – warned of earlier this month by José Manuel Barroso, Commission president – may depend on Ukraine’s ability to make good on a roughly $300m payment on July 7 to cover its June gas imports. The government says it has so far collected about $150m to do so.

But the larger question remains whether cash-strapped Ukraine will be able to pay for the stockpiles of Russian gas necessary to fill its own needs and supply European consumers throughout the winter. Europe relies on Russia for about 25 per cent of its gas imports, some 80 per cent of which flow through Ukraine.

As of early June, Ukraine claimed to have nearly 20bn cubic metres in storage, and a maximum capacity of 32bn cubic metres.

Prior to Monday’s meeting, the Commission had estimated the country might require as much as 19.5bn cubic metres of additional gas to last until the end of the year. Russia had pegged the cost at $4.2bn.

But one attendee said the parties had determined yesterday that an additional 8bn -10bn cubic metres would likely suffice – a sum that would cost roughly $2bn.

In addition to uncertainty about the weather, the calculations are being complicated by the economic crisis, which has reduced gas demand and prices across Europe. Officials are also struggling with the opacity of the Russia-Ukraine gas trade, which one likened to “a black-box”.

The Commission has insisted it has neither the means nor the inclination to step in as a lender. Still, it was hoping to use the meeting to establish conditions for any loans, including greater transparency.

Monday’s meeting also included representatives from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the European Investment Bank, as well as executives from western gas companies. Also present were officials from the Ukrainian government and Naftogaz, as well as Alexander Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Gazprom."

*When you've got them by the balls..

"Energy fuels new 'Great Game' in Europe"

Link to video tomorrow.

*When you've got them by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow.."

Update: The video is about 22 minutes into this clip.

PoR and BYuT will work together again

The PoR/BYuT party coalition talks having collapsed, their leaders Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko have instantly declared they will both stand for president in elections taking place in half a year's time.

Most commentators consider both parties entered into negotiations for cynical, self-serving purposes - dividing political power between themselves and shutting out other political opponents.

Despite their failure to come to agreement, it would appear both sides entered their long and difficult negotiations in a serious and committed manner. And it is likely that negotiations between the two biggest Ukrainian political parties will again be rejoined, both on ammending the constitution, and on a common economic crisis resolution program, after the presidential elections, as both agree these are the most critical matters requiring attention.

Most speculations on the parties' secret negotiations had been focussed on constitutional issues, but one of PoR's most senior figures, Boris Kolesnikov, also mentioned economic matters in an interview in 'Segodnya' last Friday.

Here is a portion:

Qu - What the point of moving parliamentary elections 15 months forward from September 2012 to the Spring of 2014?
A - The central objective of this extension [is that] this [would be] the end of the first stage of reforms for overcoming the crisis. In order to restore production volumes and to go further, two and a half years would not be sufficient.

Qu Do you have some concrete reform plan already? For example, the first 10, 50, 100 steps?
A - I would not want to get ahead of myself, but, certainly, such a plan exists or, to be more precise, is near finalisation. Soon the leaders of our parties [PoR and BYuT] will announce it. But certainly, it will be directed toward the creation of favorable conditions for the attraction of investments. Including by means of reductions in taxes. Further - the state's policy must be transparent for investors. The supremacy of the law, guarantees of investments, are necessary.

Qu - Can you tell us the order of actions: what comes first - changing the constitution or forming the coalition?
A There is no point to forming a coalition without [first making] constitutional changes. So first changes to the constitution, acceptance in the first reading, and then formation of a coalition as a mechanism for realising the constitutional changes.

It's over..

PM Tymoshenko has blamed Viktor Yanukovych for walking out on negotiations on formation of the PoR/BYuT coalition. If agreement had been achieved it had been speculated that Yanukovych could have been voted President in parliament, and Tymoshenko's term as PM extended until 2015 when simultaneous parliamentary and presidential elections could have been eventually held.

As I suggested in a previous blog, because of Yanukovych's and PoR's strong ratings, logically there never was that much in it for them - they may probably gain success in subsequent presidential and parliamentary elections in any case.

Tymoshenko would have had much more to gain from a PoR/BYuT deal because her new partners would have had to take their share of responsibility for any further economic failures while she remained PM.

Yushchenko would have been able to raise his profile by accusing Yanukovych and Tymoshenko of cynically fixing the democratic process in the country, turning it into a oligarchy - power being held by a small elite segment of society. [But isn't this largely the case already?]

It was PoR leaders with the shadiest backgrounds, like Boris Kolesnikov and Andriy Kluyev, who were supportive of the 'shyrka'. It would have guaranteed them [and their assets] a quiet future.

Tymoshenko released an emotional statement tonight on the current political situation She denied that election of president in parliament, extension of the authority of parliament, or curtailing the freedom of expression were ever under discussion.

"I will never drop my arms, and will not stop my fight with the crisis. Today I am on my own, one-on-one with this crisis. From the others - irresponsibility and conscious resistance to my work. But even this will not hinder us from winning...
But if the men do not have enough courage, responsiblity, do not have sufficient dignity and honour, then I have enough of these. And because of this, now, to prove that you did not stand on all of the maidans, streets and squares in vain, I declare that I'm going to stand in the presidential elections, and I will be victorious!"

She will be a fearsome opponent..

Will PRyBYuT fly?

A straw poll in 'Segodnya' asks readers:

What can Ukraine expect in the event of a Por/BYuT coalition?

Latest results:

• On the whole, the new coalition will not change anything in the country 32%
• A reduction of democracy and usurpation of authority by the two major parties 24%
• Quick quarreling between the two parties and renewed confrontation between president Yanukovych and PM Tymoshenko 24%
• Stabilisation of the political situation 9%
• More effective emergence of the country from the crisis 7%
  Improved relationships with Russia and a struggle with Ukrainian nationalists 5%
  

Quite a few BYuT deputies are sceptical about the formation of PoR/ByuT.

And 'Regiony' have doubters in their ranks also. Yanukovych and Tymoshenko have a big job on in order to 'make it fly'.

What's in it for Yanik?

At the time of writing PM Yulia Tymoshenko, PoR leader Viktor Yanukovych, and VR speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn are still in talks on the possible formation of a PoR/BYuT broad coalition. No-one really knows what the chances of success are.

But the question has to be asked, what's in it for Yanukovych? He is easily the most popular politician in Ukraine, and his party are well-funded. He would most likely win any scheduled presidential elections early next year, or this year, if president Yushchenko were to call early presidential elections. Parliamentary oppositions always strive to bring down the incumbent government, particularly if it is as 'wobbly', as the current administration is in Ukraine. This could still happen. So why go for coalition?

It's true that the oligarchs and financial-industrial groups that dominate Ukraine's major parties crave the political peace and stability a PoR/BYuT coalition could possibly bring. And none of them is keen to 'stump up' the $1/2Bn required for a presidential election campaign at the height of a global economic crisis.

Events last September proved PoR and BYuT had spent a busy summer recess last year plotting on how to weaken the president's powers. It is clear now that dialogue continued between them until now, and that PoR fancied such a 'shyrka' [the broad coalition now being proposed].

In 2005 Yushchenko dismissed Yulia Tymoshenko from her PM's position a few months after the orange revolution. In 2007 he dismissed a PoR-led VR in a constitutionally most dubious manner, leading to Yanukovych's exit from the PM's office, so both have a common enemy.

And it is possible that 'the new kid on the block', Arseniy Yatseniuk could 'pip' both of them to the presidency in the next presidential elections, so maybe not a bad idea to 'shut him out'.

But none of this IMO is sufficient for Yanukovych to join Tymoshenko in a PoR/BYuT coalition with Tymoshenko remaining PM, even if he were to be elected president in parliament in half a year's time. PoR have no other credible candidate for president apart from Yanukovych.

I believe that Yanukovych is aware that in any future presidential election he, personally, with his shady background would again be placed under the microscope, as during the 2004 campaign. It would be dirty - and no doubt, painful for him. And some of the mud always sticks.

A deal now with BYuT would 'clear the slate', provide absolution of previous sins - he would become a man worthy of the presidency - his criminal background, the theatrical collapse caused by the egg, the sweeties for Putin, proffessorships etc. all transferred to a previous life. He would be able to hold his head up high amongst the ranks of the righteous - his place in history secure. And to be able to present the winning football team with their medals in 2012 - the whole of Europe watching - what a prize!

A fresh start?

Sorry for not posting for a while.

There have been lots of articles and interviews recently speculating about secret meetings between Ukraine's leading politicians attempting to form of a previously-unthinkable PoR-BYuT-Lytvynite grand coalition. Perhaps some tail-enders could join too. By all accounts there is now a distinct possibility that such a coalition could come into being very soon.

One of the main features of such a coalition would be an agreement to change the constitution, enabling the new president [i.e. Yanukovych] to be elected by parliament. Under this arrangement PM Tymoshenko would remain in her current position for several years, and Volodymyr Lytvyn would remain VR speaker.

Sure, the ruling elites are blatantly rigging the democratic system. But if such a grand coalition could improve political stability and help the country get through the current global economic crisis maybe neutral observers whould not be too critical..The years since the Orange Revolution have not been a success, so maybe it's time start afresh..

However, president Yushchenko may be ready to take the radical step of sacrificing himself and 'self-destructing' by resigning his presidency - forcing early presidential elections and scuppering any chance of any PoR-BYuT deal..

Baloha resignation could be time bomb..

Having sensationally resigned, how much kompromat has Baloha taken out of the president's secretariat? According to Vasyl Baziv, [remember him? - he was one of those who sneered about Yushchenko's poisoning in 2004] Baloha could blow the whistle on the president.

Baloha claims Yushchenko: "has no moral right to run for president again." So if Yushchenko does so, will Baloha 'reveal all the dirt'?

Meanwhile, there are major divisions looming in PoR between the Donetskiites and the Luhanskiites [Dons and Lugs]..

Update: According to 'ProUA', "Ex-head of president's secretariat to drown Party of Region's leader's rivals in kompromat..." "Backstabber" Baloha is not wasting any time then..

Will Frankfurters forward film evidence?

423 VR deputies have today overwhelmingly voted to recommend the Cabinet of Ministers temporarily suspends Minister of Internal Affairs Yuriy Lutsenko pending a parliamentary investigation of last week's melee involving the minister at Frankfurt airport. [See previous blogs] PM Tymoshenko says she will follow the VR's recommendation and suspend Lutsenko.

Lutsenko's press secretary Inna Kysil, commenting on the events surrounding the boss's behaviour at the airport airport today said: "We really want video recordings from the airport security system to appear [in the hands of] Ukrainian journalists - in this way all the 'i's will be dotted and 't's crossed. Then there will be fewer questions for the minister, and less manipulation by politicians. But we have not recieved an answer to our requests for transfer of this video."

I mentioned the importance of video evidence in last Thursday's blog.

Lutsenko to survive?

Last week's fracas at Frankfurt airport involving Minister of the Interior Yuriy Lutsenko has been picked up by some the world's press.

Naturally, the opposition is taking full advantage of the situation to destablise an already-wobbly government, but Lutsenko would probably survive any motion in the Verkhovna Rada to sack him - a cynic would say this was reason he offered his resignation in the first place...

German authorities have furnished the Ukrainian consulate in Frankfurt with a report of the incident. According to a German spokesman, "We are talking not only of resistance to law enforcement officials, but of dangerous bodily harm and offence to dignity." [The German police involved will no doubt claim compensation for damages, like this British police mechanic, who received £500,000 for a cut finger.. ]

Apparently Lutsenko's 19-year old son, around whom the incident was centred, has recently endured medical procedures to treat thyroid cancer, and undertook a chemotherapy programme in Austria, allegedly [and curiously] paid for by PoR deputy Andriy Klyuev.

It is quite possible, and understandable, that having seen his son being roughly treated by German officials, Lutsenko overreacted. There may be some sympathy for him amongst his Ukrainian colleagues - a PoR deputy recently complained of prejudicial and coarse treatment by German airport officials in Berlin. And Vitaliy Klychko was involved in a spot of bother at Frankfurt airport in March - he has now commenced legal proceedings in this matter. Ukrainians have suffered bad experiences at the hands of Germans in uniforms in the past...maybe one of those at Frankfurt was called Adolf...

Lutsenko's drinking adds another twist to political uncertainty

Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Lutsenko's and his son's drunken behaviour at Frankfurt airport could have serious political consequences. Lutsenko is leader of the 'NS' or Narodnya Samooborona' part of NUNS. Ominously, his people are already saying nothing happened in Frankfurt, and that the "incident"was nothing but dirty tricks by the opposition.

If his parliamentary Nasha Ukraina and BYuT partners decide support PoR's call to sack him he could bring down the whole flimsy ruling coalition.

p.s. The NS website grandly declares that the party's principles are:

1. Do not steal and don't allow others to steal
2. Do not lie, and don't allow others to lie..
3. Do not take or give bribes.
4. Do not be afraid to fight for your rights.
5. Love Ukraine.

Surveillance videos from the German airport should prove if Lutsenko is adhering to them..

Yushchenko to fade away?

Following president Yushchenko's appeal, Ukraine's Consitutional Court today decided that there are no legal grounds for him to disband Verkhovna Rada. He had claimed the current cabinet was not legally in power, because it had not resigned after the parliamentary coalition had been reshuffled.

The CC Chief Justice Andry Stryzhak, at a press conference, said that only the ruling coalition in parliament has the authority to form a new cabinet and appoint a new premier.

Everybody knows Yushchenko's term in office is drawing to a close. He and his associates are going the way of the Chesire Cat in this clip from 'Alice in Wonderland'. People will be looking to the future - it unlikely many decisions will go his way now on.

YKIMS*

A good write-up on today's business-like Putin-Tymoshenko meeting from AFP here.

Today's 'Kommersant' predicted earlier that Tymoshenko would propose formation of a new gas consortium to Putin.

Here are excerpts from the article:

"Mr. Oleksandr Hudyma [a BYuT parliamentary deputy and fuel and energy adviser to the PM] stated that the Ukrainian side intends to propose a joint project to increase the capacity of the Ukrainian gas transit system [GTS]. By reconstructing the Ivantsevychi-Dolyna pipeline and constructing a Bogorodchany- Uzhgorod pipeline, with minimal investments of the order of $350million, it will be possible to increase gas transit capacity by about 30Bn cubic meters of gas p.a. The new infrastructure would be managed on parity principles by 'Gazprom' and 'Naftogaz' - the joint project investors. [The capacity of the proposed Nord Stream Baltic pipeline is of a similar order - but its cost would almost certainly exceed $10Bn..LEvko]

'Naftohaz' press- secretary Valentyn Zemlyansky yesterday stated: "We greet the participation of Russia in the modernization of the GTS of the Ukraine, the form of this participation must be determined by the premiers of two countries".

Director of East European Gas Analysis Mikhail Korchemkin, commenting on the benefits, said, "Since the beginning of the year the consumption of Russian gas in the EU countries has reduced by almost 60% and there is no sense building new gas pipes [Nord stream, South stream..any other stream?]. Far more realistic to invite Gazprom to invest in the modernization of Ukrainian GTS, whilst preserving a low tariff for pumping gas."

YKIMS* - acronym for "you know it makes sense"

Time running out for PR/BYuT coalition and president/premier co-operation

The former US ambassador to Ukraine, Steven Pifer, considers there are four problems which his country could help Ukraine overcome. These are stimulation of the economy in financial crisis conditions, development of energy conservation and reduction of energy dependency on other countries, and lobbying Ukraine's interests on entry into NATO and the EC.

"But none of this will have any effect without a fourth component - development of a joint policy by the government and president of Ukraine.The USA are ready to act as mediator in this process.." says Pifer.

Pifer is correct to identify the harm being done by long-standing president/premier warring in Ukraine, but now Yushchenko's time is fast running out.

Meanwhile PoR and BYuT are still working on 'stitching up' the president by altering the consitution, allowing Tymoshenko to continue leading the government, and electing Viktor Yanukovych as president in parliament. But an article in PoR-leaning 'Segodnya' reckons there may not now be sufficient time for the creation of a 'PR-BYuT' coalition either - a deal must be 'wrapped up' by June at the very latest.

I've loosely translated some portions below:

Rumours about the speedy creation of a PR/BYuT coalition are again emerging, but the probability of success is by no means 100%, even though now both forces are close to agreement. Changes to the constitution, which must be the basis of understanding between Yanukovych and Tymoshenko, have already been agreed.

Having experienced a fall in her ratings, Tymoshenko has made large concessions to 'Regiony' on constitutional questions in order to avoid national presidential elections. Sources in both fractions confirm that voting for the president in the parliament is proposed. In this case the head of state will be Yanukovych, with somewhat increased powers in the comparison with the current president, Tymoshenko remaining premier.
He would be deprived the right to assign governors, but the law courts would be returned under his control - all judges during his first term would be appointed by the President.

Furthermore, besides the heads of the Mministry of Foreign Affairs, National Bank of Ukraine, Ministry of Defense, Security Service, and Attorney General's Office, the Ministry of Internal Affairs would be added to president's remit - i.e., all the 'sylovyky' would be controlled by the president, [i.e. Yanukovych]. BYuT have also foregone their idea of carrying out elections of parliament into two stages.

Various fractions within PoR have different opinions on the proposals. An influential group in the party connected with Rinat Akhmetov and Boris Kolesnikov are not entirely against the association. "If we do not combine, then long years of political and economic chaos await the country," says PoR deputy Volodymyr Sivkovych. BYuT deputies also declare their desire for "uniting for the sake of fighting the crisis". But no-one is confident that such an association will take place.

Both fractions see the main reason for possible failure of PR/BYuT to be fast-approaching presidential elections scheduled for late October. Indeed in order to have time to to change constitution, then it is necessary to accept the first reading of the proposals some time in May. Furthermore, the proposals must be scrutinised by the Constitutional Court by September, and only in September can the constitution be accepted finally - just a month before the presidential elections. So presidential elections would be abolished at the height of an election campaign: too cynical even for Ukrainian politics.

It is hardly likely that Tymshenko and Yanukovych will refuse to participate in the elections so it would be better if they transfer elections to January 17th, which the constitutional court can do. But creation of PR/BYuT could alter the popularity of both of the two political forces amongst voters, therefore to go into coalition without being sure of the cancellation of elections via changes in the constitution is dangerous.

Apart from the distribution of power between its different branches, both PoR and BYuT in their version of the constitution, have attempted to resolve other questions. Even last year non aligned nation status was agreed for Ukraine, closing off any attempt to drag the country in NATO. But article 10 on the official language remains without changes. "Regions" agreed not to change it," said a source in BYuT. "In exchange for this, we promised the real fulfillment of European charter on regional languages, in order to remove the discrimination against the Russian language in the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine, and to give it considerably more rights than it has now," said the source...

So the possibility of "development of a joint policy by the government and president of Ukraine", considered so important by Pifer, which could perhaps occur under a Tymoshenko prime ministership and Yanuk presidency, is not that likely either.

Wednesday update:
'Oboz' reports that during her meeting with PM Putin in Moscow today, Tymoshenko will ask him to "apply pressure on Yanukovych to more actively participate in the organisation of PR/BYuT"

p.s. Details of Pifer's Brookings Insititution paper, "Engaging Ukraine in 2009", here

PoR and BYuT planning joint deal?

The leader of PoR, Viktor Yanukovych, intends to stand for president but it's not clear whether this will be in a national election, or if the head of state will be elected by parliament.

Sources close to the 'Kommersant' newspaper assert that PoR and BYuT have recently renewed their talks on constitutional reform in Ukraine.

Right nowYanukovych is slightly ahead in opinion polls, but his ratings cannot be called absolutely stable. However, despite the O.P.'s, PoR are not rejecting the idea of conducting the election of the head of state in parliament. Officially Yanukovych says he's against this, quoting the constitution which provides for national election of the president. Recently parliamentary chairman, Volodymyr Lytvyn, openly declared that he is aware of plans to introduce changes in the constitution of Ukraine concerning the method of electing the president, i.e. by election in parliament. According to Lytvyn these changes are planned to be made "by July this year, in order they be finally accepted in September." 300 votes are required in parliament in order to make changes to the constitution - PoR and BYuT together have sufficient deputies to do this.

According to information obtained by 'Kommersant', last Saturday a meeting took place between Viktor Yanukovych, first parliamentary vice-speaker Olexandr Lavrinovych, prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko. and member of the Supreme Council of Justice, Viktor Medvedchuk, during which the plans mentioned by speaker Lytyvyn were discussed.

'Kommersant' claims that Lytvyn was also invited to attend the meeting but he declined to do so. The entire encounter allegedly lasted six hours, and the results of secret O.P.'s were revealed to its participants indicating the PoR leader, having reached round two of the presidential elections, would lose both to Tymoshenko and to Arseniy Yatsenyuk.

The idea of conducting Presidential elections in the Verkhovna Rada is not new. "We proposed a similar initiative last year, but then no one supported it. But now, as far as I know, officially no-one is conducting any negotiations," said PoR spokesman Vasyl Khara. However, at that time negotiations fell through because BYuT refused to accept the conditions set by PoR and introduce corrections into the constitution concerning changes in the Presidential elections procedure.

Now, apparently, the situation changed, and supporters of Yulia Tymoshenko are ready to agree with the proposals advanced previously. "Since the majority of the population are in favour of the national election of the President, it will be complicated to explain why this procedure needs to be changed," says Serhiy Mishchenko, (BYuT), chairman of the VR legal policies committee. At the same time, he claimed that, in theory, an argument for the proposed scenario could be made based on the need to "avoiding a massacre" in the presidential elections.

Meanwhile, at a press conference, president Yushchenko stated: "One political party developed a constitution project which is not relevant to the majority of sections requiring alteration. There was [only] one aim - to plan zones of influence of two political forces for [the next] ten years." He added that the proposed changes: "Ignore the interests of the electors and [are] the formation of a model, which will lead to tyranny."

All the king's horses, and all the kings men*..

"Ukrainska Pravda" today reveals that the European People's Party, the "largest European-level party on the continent", have been trying for some time to act as peacemaker between president Yushchenko and premier Tymoshenko.

EPP president, Wilfried Martens has even suggested assembling a heavyweight crew comprising former British PM Tony Blair, former Spanish PM Jose Maria Asnar, and former Polish president Alexander Kwasniewski to help bring Yush and Yulka together into some kind of working relationship again. Yushchenko has been against the idea all along, whilst Tymoshenko has been agreeable.

Maybe its because just over a year ago, Martens, at a meeting with Yushchenko, [according to the UP article], blamed the president's secretariat of criminal acts against the Tymoshenko government. Martens allegedly declared: "Mr Baloha is a criminal!" To which Yushchenko apparently replied, "Look into my eyes! Do you consider these to be the eyes of a criminal?" "No, you are not a criminal - but the head of your secretariat is!" continued Martens.

"Financial Times" reports that the Yulia Tymoshenko government had unilaterally adopted initiatives needed to unlock an International Monetary Fund loan after MPs failed to adopt the required conditions in parliament.

It seems that the IMF Ukrainian mission head was OK with this, but, NUNS deputy, Ksenya Lyapina, who is one of Yushchenko's closest confidantes, says lawsuits against the cabinet from entrepreneurs will follow and the resolutions will be eventually cancelled by the cabinet.

* From an English nursery rhyme about a character normally portrayed as an egg sitting on a wall.

Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall,
Humpty Dumpty had a great fall.
All the king's horses,
And all the king's men,
Couldn't put Humpty together again

President Yushchenko - a hopeless project

I paraphrase below a recent piece in 'Segodnya':

According to frequently heard rumours, Victor Yushchenko will not be standing in the presidential elections. This would be logical, bearing in mind that he, as a 'technical' candidate, would obtain only 2-3% of votes cast. Even with huge efforts by his secretariat, Yushchenko could maybe only gain 8-10% max. so what's the point if there is no prospect of a result?

One politolog is sure Yushchenko will not stand for re-election because no serious businessmen will provide finances for this "hopeless project". The presidential elections will take place in just over half a year's time, the "lame duck" Yuschenko will soon be a "dead duck" - his subordinates are becoming oriented toward new favorites. In a similar situation former president Leonid Kuchma constantly spread rumours of a third presidential term, then about premiership after constitutional reform.

BYuT though, are sceptical about Yushchenko's non-participation in elections. "He will stand as a technical candidate together with Yatsenyuk and Tyahnybok in order to take votes away from Tymoshenko [who counts on the same electorate]," according to one BYuT parliamentary deputy. Before the second round of voting, these candidates will propose their services to the two favorites, Tymoshenko and Yanukovych, in exchange for the premership or ministerial post. It is highly improbable, that the of Yushchenko's or Tyahnybok's entire electorate will heed their call to vote for Yanukovych, but half of voters could follow their suggestions.

However, according to the BYuT 'nardep', if parliamentary elections take place before than presidential elections, Yushchenko's may not participate in the presidential race. In this event, together with Baloha's outfit, he could collect 5% and enter the new rada, after which he would lose interest as a poor showing would underscore the futility of standing for president again.

A 'Segodnya' source in the president's secretariat claims the President has not yet did made up his mind what to do. If Tymoshenko is still premier at the time of the elections, then Yushchenko, most likely, will go for re-election.

Latest speculations

Yushchenko may not be standing for re-election in the next pres elections..

But there are major rumblings of discontent both within PoR, and within BYuT. Rinat Akhmetov may be becoming disillusioned with PoR leader Yanukovych, and warming toward YuVT..

And Yulia T may be flying to Moscow to meet her Russian counterpart, Vladimir P, soon. Yesterday they had a break-through telephone conversation..

'Segodnya', who refer to her as "Lady Yu", and "our premier" claim, "Decisive in the change of the relationship [between the Russian and Ukrainian government] was the position of the Russian premier, Vladimir Putin who appears to be the main lobbyist for friendship with Tymoshenko, whilst at the same time president Medvedev and number of leading Russian politicians, whose attitude to Yulia Volodymyrivna is sceptical, say she cannot be trusted..."

Maybe more detail on the above tomorrow..

The trap for Tymoshenko

Below is an excerpt from Serhiy Leshchenko's latest piece, entitled 'The trap for Yulia Tymoshenko', posted in today's "Ukrainska Pravda":

"Simultaneous 'rebooting' of the presidency and parliament provides a unique opportunity for Yushchenko and Yanukovych to get rid of Tymoshenko and agree on how power will be divided up after the elections. This could be done according to the formula: 'Yanukovych - president, Yushchenko - prime minister...

Right now is not the time for Yushchenko to choose between alternatives, it is the only way to realise his own scenario - in co-operation with Yanukovych...
Its possible that the talks between Viktor Baloha and Boris Kolesnikov last week were dedicated to these same themes."

Council of Europe warn against simultaneous pres and parliamentary elections

PACE Monitoring Committee co-rapporteur Renate Wohlwend, speaking to reporters in Kyiv today, said: "Conducting two elections without previously passed necessary laws cannot take place [in Ukraine]. Moreover, we could warn [Ukraine] against this."

She said that PACE see no judicial grounds to conduct these [presidential and parliamentary] elections on one day, because "this could lead to greater chaos than provide positives."

Naturally, the president's press office put a different spin on their boss's meeting with Mrs Wohlwend and her PACE colleague.

p.s. The latest gossipy article in 'Obozrevatel' written by the knowledgeable Sonya Koshkina concludes:

"Speaking of PR[y]BYuT in a more global context, not as a coalition but rather mutually beneficial co-operation, then the phrase of a person close to Rinat Akhmetov - "Rinat has come to terms with Yulia, as a necessary evil," has taken wing.

If by some chance presidential insignia do fall upon Tymoshenko, the Donetskiites will be able to come to agreement with her in an amicable manner.

Contact between Rinat Leonidovych and Yulia Volodymyrivna is now highly intensive and takes place not only through mediators...it goes without saying, Yanukovych cannot but know about this...he saw the PM at least twice last week."

PR[y]BYuT or early elections?

'Segodnya' has some interesting analysis on the current political situation. Below I've loosely translated some bits:

"Only a PoR/BYuT coalition can save the Rada

BYuT will be attempting to come to an agreement with Yanukovych next week. If they fail, the country will go to combined presidential and parliamentary elections.

BYuT's deputy VR vice-speaker, Mykola Tomenko, put his party in a dilemma by declaring: either everyone in the VR negotiates to work together, or everyone decides on how to conduct the simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections. According to Tomenko, these were the conclusions supported by respondents of an opinion poll carried out by BYuT. [The straw poll at the end of Shuster's programme mentioned in my previous blog were not that clear cut.]

The official BYuT position is that they are categorically against any early parliamentary elections, probably because their ratings are falling; they will not be able to form any coalition and will lose power. [A note of caution: BYuT's ratings have generally been underated in previous elections]

"For BYuT it is important to pass an anti-crisis programme in parliament, but the composition of present coalition makes this unrealistic. Unfortunately the Communists have completely refused to co-operate, according to a source in the PM's bloc, so it necessary to convince PoR to do this - there is no alternative. The problem though, is Yanukovych's stance. Serhiy Lyovochkin, a close adviser to the PoR leader who is also well connected with the co-owner of RosUkrEnergo, Dmitro Firtash, is convinced that Yanukovych could clean up everything - winning both the parliamentary, and presidential elections. If a PR/BYuT coalition has any chance of being assembled, it is necessary to convince Yanukovych to go along with it.

The current ruling coalition has shown itself to be ineffective, but a PR/BYuT coalition on the eve of presidential elections is a myth, according one additional influential BYuT deputy. He added that although Tomenko did not state the official position of his bloc, the chances to early joint presidential and parliamentary elections are very high.

PoR spokesmen have been cautious when talking of a possible agreement with BYuT. "I support Ukraine's swift emergence from the crisis," said one of the party's leaders, Boris Kolesnikov. "If, for this to happen we have to create a coalition with BYuT, then I'm for this coalition. I consider the probability of it being created as 50 to 50. If a PR/BYuT coalition is formed, this will make early parliamentary elections unnecessary. If not, it will be necessary to hold joint elections even earlier than October 25th".

Yesterday Rinat Akhmetov [Ukraine's wealthiest oligarch, PoR's major sponsor, owner of 'Segodnya', and a close associate of Kolesnikov] spoke about possible collaboration with the Tymoshenko KabMin."I do not want to fight with the present government - I want to fight with the crisis. If the the goverment can overcome the crisis - they will they will be heroes," said Akhmetov. Kolesnikov, commenting on this turn of phrase, added: "Thus far this government doesn't deserve an illuminated scroll, never mind title of hero".

p.s. One of the matters mentioned by Tymoshenko during Friday's TV debate was the resolution by the recent G20 summit conference in London on overcoming the current global economic crisis to close down offshore financial loop-holes. This resolution will have a large impact on Ukraine's big businessmen.

Any investigation into Ukraine's industrial enterprises quickly reveals a massive web of such offshore intermediary companies. Official figures reveal that in good times Ukraine is blessed with major overseas inward investments, particularly from major countries like, for example, Cyprus...

All of this would not have been possible without major involvement from Western commercial and banking institutions. Western law firms, brokerage firms, governments of offshore zones, and banks have been exploiting for their own benefit the steady outward flow of capital too.

Early pres and parliamentary elections?

Viktor Yanukovych has supported president Yushchenko's call for joint early presidential and parliamentary elections.

On April 1st, the Verkhovna Rada voted, by a massive majority, for the subsequent presidential elections to be held on October 25th.

During the 'Shuster-Live' TV debate, mentioned in my previous blog, many arguments were put forward criticising the barmy idea of joint early elections at a time of the current global economic crisis which impacting so hard on Ukraine.

The president can hardly muster a dozen or more NUNS parliamentary deputies to support his cause. If he wants presidential elections before the October 25th, he should resign from his post first to force such early elections.

PM Tymoshenko easily survived a parliamentary vote of no confidence just a few weeks ago. There are no legitimate reasons for her to quit, or for early VR elections to take place.
At the end of the 'Shuster-Live' show the supposedly politically balanced audience, having heard all of the arguments, were asked: 'What kind of early elections do you support?'

The responses were:

54% Do not support [early elections]
23% Combined Parliamentary and Presidential
22% Presidential only
1% Parliamentary only

Early elections? The president cannot be serious.

'Segodnya' quotes a BYuT spokesman who speculates that early joint elections would give the president a place in the parliament after he loses the presidential elections, probably in a coalition with PoR.

Oh, and the dismissal of a Tymoshenko goverment would mean the freeing up of the 11BnCM of gas "commandeered" by the gov. from Firtash's RUE...the president needs all the help he can get to cling to any future political career...

Tymoshenko's defence

Watch Yulia Tymoshenko's remarkably confident, and at times passionate defence of her government's anti-crisis policies on Friday's 'Shuster Live' programme here

Fiddling while Rome burns..

The date for the presidential elections has been set for later this year on 25th October. Today PoR have started the 'second phase' of troublemaking by blocking the work of parliament...

PM Tymoshenko has accused PoR and the president of collusion to force early parliamentary elections onto the country yet again.

"I suspect that a limited company has been formed based on the principle: we do the blocking and you announce early elections by ukaz. It's a shame - this co-operation between Yanukovych and the president. They want to conduct early elections, and this means the country will be left dangling for 8 months, wrecking any remaining stability," said the PM.

She also declared the blocking of parliament by members of PoR is hindering the acceptance of anti-crisis laws and is directed at destabilizing the work of parliament and the political situation in general, adding that her team is categorically against any early parliamentary elections. "These irresponsible attempts have been made before, and ended with nothing. I promise them this - I will not permit them to ruin and wreck the country," she emphasized.

Party of Regions deny collusion and swear that they are blocking the VR without any deals with the presidential secretariat.

Oleksandr Tretyakov, a former close aide of president Yushchenko and a NUNS elder, commented: "Today we have became the witnesses of start of a scenario to completely discredit the President undertaken by the PoR together with technical personnel from the secretariat that are known to the entire country. They are specially provoking Viktor Yushchenko to issue and edict to break up parliament in order to provide additional arguments in favor of the beginning of impeachment procedures," adding, "It is possible to draw the conclusion that Party of Regions is intentionally destabilizing the country, [in order to] provoke serious economic and social shocks in society."

Maybe its time for a few stern 'phone calls from the 'grown-ups' at the IMF and European Commission..