'Minor' presidential candidates put in good performances on TV

Three lesser candidates standing for president in next January's election appeared in an interesting and lengthy 'Shuster Live' TV program last Friday. Representatives and spokesmen from the main condenders' political parties also took part. [You can watch it via the above link.]

The candidates were Anatoliy Hrytsenko, a former minister of defence in both Yanukovych's and Tymoshenko's government; Inna Bohoslovska, who ran her own party a while, was a member of PoR for a couple of years, then quit Regiony to run as an independent candidate earlier this year; and Oleh Tyahnybok, leader of the right-wing 'Freedom' party.

PoR send two of their top mouthpieces - attack dog Nestor Shufrich and Oleksandr Efremov, whilst BYuT sent their deputy Oleh Lyashko. Former president Leonid Kravchuk, whilst not strictly a BYuT party member, spoke in support of 'she who works'.

A couple of political experts pointed out that it was important to remember that the president, according to the consititution, is not primarily responsible for the economy, even though in the coming campaign the current economic crisis this will completely overshadow all other matters.

In LEvko's opinion, the three 'minor' candidates performed most competently with creditable seriousness and eloquence, presenting policies and ideas, whilst the others were more concerned in mutual mud-slinging. Hrytsenko's performance in particular, was impressive and was appreciated by the audience.

At the end of the program the studio audience, which Shuster made great pains to point out was a true cross-section of Ukraine's adult population, were asked: "Which one of the speakers was the most convincing". Top came Hrytsenko - 37%. Second came Tyahnybok - 30%. Bohoslovska 14%. The PoR representatives, perhaps the best they've got, scored 11%

None of the three candidates mentioned have financial resources and backing to match the main candidates, which is a shame. Hrytsenko in particular would give any other candidate a run for their money in any TV debate. I would not be surprised if he came in a creditable third in January, even though he would make an excellent president.

After this show, PoR will have to do some serious thinking about their presentational policy for Yanukovych's campaign. Even though he is favourite, they cannot keep their man wrapped in cotton wool for the entire period. And they may rue the loss of Bohoslovska.

p.s. There may well be more dirty allegations soon. Well known journalist Sonya Koshkina makes mention, in a piece in 'Lyevyi Byeryeg', of shall we say, unnatural and illegal behaviour of a sexual nature, by 'Yanik' during his second prison stretch in the early '70's. The rumblings around this may have caused PoR to 'get their retaliation in first' with 'paedo' allegations against BYuT deputies...

Who knows where the truth lies? Maybe the electorate of sick of the dirt - hence the possibly growing support for the minor presidential candidates.

In another article by the same journalist, entitled 'The recidivist candidate', describing Yanukovych's party nomination conference, the first [untitled] photograph in the article shows the above-mentioned Nestor Shufrich embracing a rather sinster-looking character. This can't be PoR deputy Elbrus Tedeyev, whose brother was allegedly involved in a wild-west-style shoot-out between two criminal gangs in a Kyiv park recently, can it?

After the shooting, several participants were allegedly seen driving away in Elbrus's officially registered Merc 500. But it couldn't possibly be him - 'cos he's also a pal of fellow PoR-deputy, Yanik-junior..

Presumption of innocence - what's that?

President Yushchenko today blundered into the political fray surrounding a major sex abuse scandal in which three BYuT parliamentary deputies are allegedly implicated. The deputies have been questioned but, until now, have not had to face any charges.

At a public meeting where the Prosecutor-General Oleksandr Ivanovych Medvedko was also present, the president addressed the P.G. directly:

"Recall this scandal, which today is taking place in Ukrainian society, when in the highest levels of government we have, excuse me, paedophiles, people who bring colossal harm to our morals..But, unfortunately, today they have [are protected by] a [parliamentary] mandate."

"I think that the [same] fate [as that] of Lozinsky awaits them The same political shelter, and after a few weeks we will be hunting them via Interpol, Oleksandr Ivanovych."

[Viktor Lozinsky was a BYuT parliamentary deputy. He is the prime suspect in a murder case and is now on the run. He has been stripped of his seat in parliament.]

"And so we are playing a game, which Oleksandr Ivanovych, will end the same way as with Lozinsky, who was released, who was protected by a political force. Now [we have] episode two - with paedophiles," added Yushchenko.

The president's highly prejudicial, almost Stalinist comments are astonishing, particularly to a western observer, and can only be seen as a most crude attempt to discredit the political force of one of his main rivals in next January's presidential election. Furthermore, if no charges are brought against the three BYuT deputies, or if they have sound alibis, it will be the president who be accused of co-instigating very dirty political games. Hints of this are already being aired.

Opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych's statements on this affair have been more measured. "My attitude to this question [i.e. the scandal] is extremely negative. If this fact took place, [if it] is confirmed, I don't even know what to call it."

"Only bad words keep coming back [to me] - I would rip off that place which you do not have," he added when answering a female journalist's question.

[He may have had previous experience of such procedures. On the Melnychenko tapes, secretly recorded several years ago, Yanukovych is heard to promise to "..hang up by his balls for a night" Oleksandr Tupytskiy, a judge in the Donetsk region.]

'Segodnya', in a fair-minded article, today informed its readers that minister of the interior, Yuriy Lutsenko, told journalists that his ministry have opened a criminal case concerning the alleged $2m blackmail of one of the BYuT deputies accused of child molestation.

Lutsenko claimed in parliament a couple of days ago that he had a PDA recording of the child victims' lawyer attempting to blackmail one of BYuT deputies concerned.

p.s. Dmytro Polyukhovych, the central figure and in this nasty business and father of the two victims, was detained two months ago and remains in custody.

Ukrainian way of doing business

Today's London 'Times' reports:

"Tony Blair, the favourite to become Europe’s first president, is believed to have accepted tens of thousands of pounds from a steel billionaire [Viktor Pinchuk, no less] campaigning for Ukraine to join the European Union. "

As for Viktor P - no such thing as bad publicity..

Ukraine not wanted in EU

Many core members of the EU share a common currency already - the Euro. Millions of citizens from new member Central and Eastern Europe countries are living and working in Western European countries with full access to job markets, accommodation, schools, medical care and other benefits. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the current global crisis has not turned the tide, and many of these folks are staying put in their newly-chosen countries of residence.

Below is a portion of an article on the proposed European Union Lisbon Treaty from Wednesday's today's London 'Times'. The Treaty is intended to make the EU "more democratic, more transparent, and more efficient", but would also mean forfeit of more national sovereignty by EU member countries - increasing the possibility of the EU becoming a fully fledged federal superstate.

"The original EU was supposed to secure the postwar prosperity of Western Europe and ensure that France and Germany never took up arms against each other again. Until 1989 the European mission was essentially to stay happy, rich and out of harm’s way. The Havels and Lech Walesas changed all that. The two Germanys merged and the eastern longing for acceptance made enlargement a sensible goal.

Now, two decades on, the EU has realised that it is become significantly poorer, less secure along its borders and is probably unhappier than for half a century. For mainland Europeans the fulcrum of the continent has shifted significantly eastwards. On the borderlands there are wobbly dictatorships such as Belarus, blood feuds in the Balkans and, in the popular imagination, hordes of potential immigrants from Ukraine. Berlin and Vienna are little more than a hop, skip and jump from some dirt-poor communities.

Enlargement once seemed to give the EU a moral purpose; now it is seen as trouble. The moral purpose has been lost in a tangle of treaty-prose. How does it deal with this? It should be quarrying out a new sense of purpose. Instead it has cobbled together a treaty of which the deepest purpose is to find institutionally acceptable ways to block the entry of Turkey or Ukraine."

Classic disinformation

Just over two weeks ago a story emerged supposedly casting doubt on president Yushchenko's 2004 poisoning.

On September 18th 'Segodnya' ran a sensational article entitled: "Prosecutor General of Ukraine Report: Dioxin was sprinkled [into the food] of Yushchenko by Americans", with a sub-heading: Head of Prosecutor General's office revealed poisoning of Yushchenko was falsified"

"Russia Today" picked it up and embellished it in their own article entitled: "Ukrainian president’s poisoning was falsified".

At the story's core is an audio recording whose existence was revealed by Larisa Cherednichenko, head of the department for supervision of investigations into criminal cases of the Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office.

"RT", in their piece state: "..Cherednichenko mentioned a recording of a phone conversation between two people who called each other Roman and Marta. Speaking in English and occasionally using some Ukrainian words, those two were discussing the delivery of Yushchenko’s blood samples to the U.S. and then to Austria.

She claimed the name “Marta” was a pseudonym and the poisoning was nothing but an operation planned and performed by Ukrainian and foreign special services.

The General Prosecutor’s office representative refused to name who was really hiding behind the “Marta” nickname. However, the gossip that appeared on the Internet shortly afterwards is that it was Kateryna Yushchenko."

Today an 'Ukrainska Pravda' article by Serhiy Leshchenko [who Yushchenko once called a hit-man or killer, following one of his U.P. stories - so 'no friend of the president he'] contains a transcript of the conversation, mainly in English, between "Roman" and "Marta".

It turns out that "Roman" is Roman Zvarych - a US-born former Ukrainian cabinet minister and close friend of Yushchenko, and "Marta" is Marta Lopatynska, his sister-in-law, an opthalmologist from New Jersey. The readers of this blog can read the transcript from the 'U.P.' link and decide for themselves whether there is any evidence of conspiracy in the conversation, or whether it is part of a disinformation campaign to discredit Yushchenko and his allies. Zvarych claims that the conversation is an appeal to his sister-in-law to find toxicology experts in the U.S. who could identify the poisons in Yushchenko's body, and help the-then presidential candidate overcome their effects.

The involvement of U.S. doctors and other specialists helping treat Yushchenko at that time was widely reported, as in the 'Washington Post' article.

Leshchenko reveals at the end of his article that the prime suspect in Yushchenko's poisoning, Volodymyr Satsyuk - then deputy head of Ukraine's security services [SBU], took with him his whole audio file archive when he fled to Russia, where he remains to this day. It was he who gave the "Roman-Marta" recording to the Ukrainian Parliamentary Committee investigating Yushchenko's poisoning. And it was they and Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office that have deliberately organised this disinformation, colluding with the prime suspect in the case to deliberately 'muddy the waters' and take the heat off Satsyuk.

Just how low can you get?

"disinformation - 1955, from Rus. dezinformatsiya"

"The truth is so precious it must be surrounded by a bodyguard of lies.." Winston Churchill

p.s. On a completely different note, "Andrei Lugovoi, the prime suspect in the murder of Kremlin critic Alexander Litvinenko, has dropped plans to run for mayor in the Russian city of Sochi. Mr Lugovoi said he and his party, the nationalist Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, had decided he should remain an MP in the Russian parliament instead.

British police want to question him about Litvinenko's death by radioactive poisoning in London in November 2006."

What worries Ukes

Results of a recent opinion poll conducted in the Kyiv oblast revealed over 63% of those questioned were most worried about inflation, over 54% worry about low pay and pensions, over 42%were worried about unemployment, and almost 40% were concerned by political instability in the country.

Relations with Russia? Less than 8% were bothered about this. As for entry into the EU and NATO, unity of Eastern and Western parts of the country, or a possible new Constitution - less than 5% have anxieties over each of these.

LEvko's conclusion - the candidate who voters consider to be more likely to improve the Ukrainian economy will become president in next year's presidential election.

Yushchenko packing bags already?

ProUA reports that president Yushchenko has accepted he will no longer be head of state in several months time. He sees no possibility of reanimating his political base, 'Our Ukraine', and the last straw was the cold shoulder he recieved from Joseph Biden and Barack Obama during his recent visit to the USA.

ProUA's sources claim that having received no guarantees of immunity from prosecution from either of the two front-runners in next January's presidential election, Yanukovych or Tymoshenko, president Yushchenko has already started packing his bags.

Several aircraft-loads of his stuff, including his antiques collection, was apparently seen departing from Zhytomyr airport for Canada and later transhipment to the USA - probably to his wife's home town of Chicago.

Shuster show with Tymoshenko hijacked by PoR

I've just spent over two hours watching latest Savik Shuster program, on-line, here.

It's rivetting stuff.

The show was to comprise Yulia Tymoshenko being cross-examined by a battery of eminent journalists. She claimed during the programme that Viktor Yanukovych was to be present as well. Just as the programme opens, three PoR heavyweights - Mykola Azarov, Hanna Herman and Iryna Akimova gate-crash the proceedings, claiming this was 'in the interest of balance'. The PoR trio are seen milling around the studio floor while Tymoshenko is speaking, and two extra chairs are brought into the studio for them, perhaps suggesting that only one of them was to attend. The journos are all clearly pi**ed off by this as it is obvious they where not aware the PoR trio would be there. During the programmeTymoshenko answers hostile questions in her usual passionate manner complete with many diversions, as well as responding challenges from the 3 PoR guys. The whole atmosphere is very tense and the proceedings quite chaotic.

About 2 hours 20 minutes into the programme [which is on a TV channel owned by PoR deputy Rinat Akhmetov] Shuster, who many consider the most respected TV interrogator on Ukrainian television, tries to explain the mix-up about who was to attend the program and who was not.

He says he had been summoned to PoR headquarters earlier in the day, where he had been accused of pro-Tymoshenko bias and was told that PoR representatives had to be present during the programme. He responded that Tymoshenko may well not agree to this. Herman then accuses Shuster, live on air, of concocting a plan whereby the 3 PoR guys would enter unannounced, but he could carry on with the pretence that Tymoshenko would be questioned only by journalists. Shuster repudiates this, denying he was party to any conspiracy, whilst other journalists lay into Herman too for not trusting them to do their job properly in scrutinizing the PM in a fair manner, and for taking from them the opportunity to quiz the PM live on TV, whilst at the same time promoting their own political agenda and electioneering.

The intention of the programme was to give journalists the opportunity of grilling the PM on her handling/mishandling of the economy during the global crisis. PoR considered that the programme would give Tymoshenko the opportunity to promote herself for president, even though the campaign has not yet started.

In the end, it was Tymoshenko and the journalists who emerged with more credit. 'Glavred', in their 'write-up' on the program say her people are happiest about how it all worked out.

PoR have a real problem with Yulka T who is a star performer on TV. As in this particular programme, if she takes on all-comers on her own, answering their questions and challenges, she looks as if she is being unfairly bullied - neutral viewers feel sympathetic to her. She is a master of playing the delicate 'wronged woman'. If she goes one-to-one against anyone in a TV debate, paticularly Yanukovych, [if this were ever to happen], she would probably win hands down. Putting her in front of agressive journalists, who would have given her a hard time, would probably have been best for PoR at this moment in time. But PoR could not be content with this. By highjacking the programme they let Tymoshenko score some easy points and made PoR and Savik Shuster, who had to apologise to the journalists present for submitting to PoR's, in his words, "blackmail", look devious. And they annoyed the journalists big-time too.

British Royal Shakespeare Company play about Holodomor

Listen to a most interesting audio clip broadcast this morning on BBC Radio 4's flagship news programme "Today", about this new play called "The Grain Store", here

"The great famine of 1932 and 1933 in Ukraine, known as the Holodomor, may have killed as many as 10 million people. Some believe that it was a deliberate act of genocide.

BBC Correspondent Nick Higham reports on the Royal Shakespeare Company's world premiere of a play about the famine, written by a Ukrainian writer."

Much more fascinating information about the play, at the RSC site here and here

Russia's time running out in Ukraine? Or maybe not..

Paul Goble has written a good summary in his blog of a recent important article published in 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya', by Volodymyr Horbulin [who was a National Security and Defence Council secretary under president Kuchma] and Oleksandr Lytvynenko, about the security trap in which both the Russian Federation and Ukraine find themselves. Paul Goble's summary can also be read here.

'Segodnya' yesterday published a riposte to the article by Horbulin entitled "Friendship between Obama and Moscow: the Ukrainian Atlanticist's nightmare"

The author argues that an improvement in relations between Russia, Europe and the USA will make it easier for Ukrainian politicians to maintain equally good relations both with Russia and with the West.

He concludes: "[The] ideal economic situation for Ukraine [would be] to establish a free trade zone with the European Union and to preserve and widen free trade with Russia. To obtain investments both from the Russian Federation and from the West. To agree with Russia on an acceptable price for fuel, and with the West about the technological modernization of our industry and infrastructure. If such a most advantageous multi-vector policy seemed unrealistic in the past because of the complex relations between the West and Russia, then now, as a result the significant warming up of relations in the Moscow- European Union -USA triangle, it is fully possible. The main thing is that these large geopolitical comrades do not fall out between themselves again."

Medvedev's CNN interview

Below is part of the transcript of today's interview with president Medvedvev on CNN.

See video here

"F.Zakariya: Talking about Ukraine, when you say they should hold a referendum there, we should note that Ukraine is a sovereign state, and it’s free to enter any alliance it wants. There is no constitutional requirement for Ukraine to hold a referendum. Even though many believe that Russia is not satisfied with Ukraine being independent, as it believes Ukraine is still part of Russia to a large extent, that it cannot put up with the fact that it has lost Ukraine. In any case, we believe Ukraine has the opportunity to join any alliance; and according to the Constitution, it doesn’t need our direction on whether to do it or not.

D.Medvedev: You’re right. The question is that I am not making any recommendations to Ukraine; I just believe that Ukrainian politicians should think about it. I am not an expert on Ukrainian legislation. But we are talking about entering nothing else but a military bloc; and we had all been within one military bloc called the Warsaw Pact, which used to be NATO’s direct opponent. So if I was to make such a decision, I believe I would have to consult with the population on such issues. This is certainly their sovereign right; but as far as I know, a significant number of politicians hold the same position as me: that a referendum is required before acceding into NATO. The fact that the current Ukrainian president doesn’t think so is his own business. This is what I believe we should remember.

Regarding our attitude towards Ukraine, it’s a hearty and friendly one. We all have relatives and friends in Ukraine, and we have a need to communicate. Ukraine has been going its own way; it’s an independent state now, so let it develop itself. Ukraine has been experiencing economic difficulties and their own national problems; so let our colleagues deal with them.

What is it that I dislike? It’s something I had talked about in my recent address and in my letter to President Yushchenko. There is only one thing I dislike: that the anti-Russian position has become the main policy of the current leadership, meaning the country’s president, my colleague. Whatever they say, I am absolutely convinced this is their key policy. It’s a shame, and it’s wrong. Our nations have been so closely tied together that anyone who tries forcing a wedge between our two nations would be making a mistake, if not a crime, for the sake of future generations. So my address had only one meaning: to make Ukrainian politicians – and their president first of all – start to think about their policy. I really don’t like it that Ukraine has been heroising Nazi criminals, so to speak. [As a lawyer, Medvedev would certainly be aware he was deliberately making an erroneous sweeping generalisation here..LEvko] We had all actually fought against Nazism at some point. Other countries understand it, but the Ukrainian leaders are not willing to realise it for some reason. I have the right to make such assessments, as this is a common challenge, a common threat. Nazi criminals used to be judged by the Nuremberg tribunal.

So there are things that are truly crucial for the future of our relationships. We are not forcing anything on anyone; we are not addressing anyone. I’ve particularly emphasised that I wasn’t even appealing to the Ukrainian nation, because this nation has its own leadership. But as this country’s leader, I have to express my standing to my colleague. Considering everything that had been – and still has been happening there – I had to make an unpleasant decision and to delay sending a new ambassador to Ukraine, so that our Ukrainian colleagues would actually think about the consequences of such a policy."

In three of four months time president Yushchenko will be out of office, clearing his desk and packing a furniture removal truck. So why so hostile? Today was Medvedev's 44th birthday. Maybe he just didn't like the birthday prezzie from his Ukrainian counterpart...

'Segodnya's' "take" on this is: "Head of the Russian Federation has again criticized our president over [his] anti-Russian policies"

Another presidential junket

President Yushchenko returned home empty-handed from a state visit to Turmenistan today.

He was accompanied by two airplane loads of officials, musicians [!?], and other personnel. A meagre four inter-government documents only were signed during the president's visit.

But I'd bet they almost cleared out the Ashkhabad duty-free shop before the flight back home..

Poisoners in Russia, claims Yushchenko

The last edition of the "Sunday Times" informs its readers that "President [Yushchenko] claims Kremlin is shielding his would-be killers"

Good job it was dioxin and not polonium..

Ukrainian intellectuals warn of Russian threat

Several days ago the big-selling 'Segodnya' ran this story on "Ukrainian intellectuals'" appeal to the world to save Ukraine from Russia. I've translated some portions below:

They call on the USA, Great Britain, France and China, the guarantors of the Budapest memorandum, to take part in an International conference in order to provide security guarantees for Ukraine.

The members of the intelligentsia have also appealed to leading organs in the European Union "on the need for a clear and unambiguous position on the question of the guarantee of the national sovereignty of Ukraine, and to express a warning against any form of interference by Russia into the internal affairs of Ukraine".

The members of the intelligentsia note: "The Russian leadership have consciously taken a course on the dismantling of the current security system, the key direction of which has become the aim of subordinating Ukraine in order to fulfill the geo-strategic interests of Russia".

According to their appeal, "the consequence of such a strategy is the rapid escalation of stress in bilateral relations. Unprecedented aggravation has taken the form of information warfare against Ukraine".

"In Russian society Ukrainians are presented as the enemy, and Ukraine is labelled as the main destabiliser of relations between the European Union and Russia," they add.

Commenting on the President of Russia's recent message to the President of Ukraine and the new Russian legislation on the use of the Russian armed forces beyond the limits Russian Federation, the intellectuals claim:

"For the first time in many years signs are appearing that the Kremlin is not excluding use of power in its arsenal of foreign policy tools relative to Ukraine".

"The subordination of Ukraine to Russia's strategy will renew the division of Europe, will carry a direct threat to the international and national security of the European Union, will lead to a decrease in the overall level of confidence and security in Europe, and will escalate tension and resistance in foreign relations as a whole", warn the signatories. They include former President Leonid Kravchuk, former top man at the Kyiv Mohyla Academy, Vyacheslav Bryukhovetskiy, who is now working for Rinat Akmetov's Foundation for the Development of Ukraine, former ambassador to Great Britain, Serhiy Komisarenko, Levko Lukyanenko, and many others.

Full text here

BBC radio report on Donbass Arena opening ceremony

Listen to a 5-minute BBC Radio 4 "From Our Own Correspondent report, broadcast on Saturday 5th September 2009, on last weekend's opening ceremony at the new Schaktar Donetsk Arena here. The report starts about 7 minutes into the 30 minute-long audio clip.

Also worth watching is Shaktar's official video of the event here

Con artists all..

British PM Gordon Brown is not the only major world figure doing dubious and disreputable deals with Libyan supremo colonel Gaddafi. At the 40th anniversary celebrations of the coup that brought Gaddafi to power, Ukraine's Prime Minister, Yulia Tymoshenko was amongst the first foreign leaders to greet him.

According to the 'Independent' newspaper : "Prim and pretty with her braided hair, she seemed like a girl receiving a school prize. Her presence was among the more obvious clues as to why the rest of the world puts up with Ronald Reagan's "mad dog" of the Middle East. At least one half of the Ukrainian political establishment is desperate to break clear of its energy dependency on Russia and the political limitations that come with that."

Don't be fooled by the looks - Tymoshenko has had experience in the past of dealing with autocratic and 'loopy' leaders of oil and gas-rich countries to secure beneficial deals for her own [former] companies and for Ukrainian consumers.

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I also particularly liked this story from today's 'Independent' about a 17-year-old graffiti artist who stole several pencils that formed part of a sculpture by one of Viktor Pinchuk's favourite artists, Damien Hirst. [Pinchuk's gallery in Kyiv is currently staging a major retrospective Hirst exhibition].

The teenager was arrested by British police and released on bail - he is waiting to find whether he will be formally charged with causing damage to an iconic artwork worth, wait for it, £10m! The pencils were valued at £1/2 million. [They were, apparently, in 'as-new' condition, but it is not clear whether they were the sort that have an eraser rubber at the upper end.]

'Philantropist' Pinchuk, who made his money in no small part thanks to to his father-in-law, former Ukrainian president Kuchma, has been spending millions on what some commentators regard as "not masterpieces..[but] the icons of idiocy".

Now however, the contemporary art market is in meltdown and prices are plummetting. Still, easy come - easy go I suppose.

p.s. It's an inspiration to know that the British police and legal system are ruthlessly pursuing these adolescent thieves and vandals who have no respect for art..

Kremlin further out of step

Listen to a concise 5 minute audio clip from the 'Guardian's' Luke Harding explaining yesterday's events in Gdansk and the new Kremlin doctrine directed at its neighbours, here

And read his article on some dubious documents on Poland's supposed dealings with Hitler produced in Moscow yesterday, here

Poland - supporting Ukrainian nationalists in the 30's? I don't think so..

Poland is start of long, uncomfortable season for Russia

Amongst the many articles on the commemoration to mark the 70th anniversary of the start of WW2 in Gdansk today, I particularly liked one entitled "We must not forget the real causes of the war", by the acclaimed British historian Norman Davies.

"As the Russian government must realise, however, Poland will only be the start of a long, uncomfortable season. After Poland, it will be Finland's turn, and the 70th anniversary of the Winter War. Stalin's aggression against Finland in November 1939 was every bit as blatant as his actions against Poland. His German partner was not involved, and the despatch of a million troops into a neighbouring country to deport the entire population of the frontier area can hardly be described as the doings of a neutral well-wisher. It led to the expulsion of the USSR from the League of Nations. And after Finland, there will be Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Romania. At every stage, there will be scenes of peace-loving tanks, of executions and deportations, and of weeping patriots..."

Hence the current propaganda war orchestrated by the Kremlin?

p.s. PM Tymoshenko has spent a few interesting few days lately. Over the weekend she was in Donetsk for the opening of Shakhtar's new stadium and was warmly embraced by Rinat Akhmetov, while Beyonce Knowles was singing on stage. Today she met Vladimir Putin in Gdansk, and flew off to Libya for Colonel Muammar Gaddafi's bash.

Medvedev on WW2

Portion of a TV interview with President Medvedev on TV Channel Rossia's 'News of the Week' Programme, August 30, 2009:

Interviewer: You and I are talking today on the eve of an important historic date: September 1, the 70th anniversary of the beginning of World War Two.

Now, in Europe, there is an unbelievably wide range of assessments as to why this horrible tragedy was started. What are your thoughts on this matter?

DMITRY MEDVEDEV: These events were the greatest tragedy of the 20th century. It was a tragedy that took the lives of about 70 million people, according to various estimates, as this figure has never been fully determined. Thus, there can be no other view of those events. Of course, there is also the issue of how these events are interpreted in different nations. And here, unfortunately, there are some clear setbacks.

Just 20 or 30 years ago, even within the so-called political and ideological blocs that stood in opposition to each other – by which I mean the West and the East, the Warsaw Treaty and NATO – everyone agreed that Nazism had been rightfully condemned by history and that Nazi criminals who were judged in the Nuremberg trials were serving out a just punishment. This was the case, even despite our differences in ideological approaches, which is why I specifically brought it up.

Now, we share relatively common values, and we no longer argue about what we see as the most important values in our societies, the values that should serve as the foundation for our nations, and how we should build our economies.

Nevertheless, we are seeing some astounding trends. Governments in the Baltic States and even Ukraine are now essentially pronouncing former Nazi accomplices to be their national heroes who fought for the liberation of their nations. Of course, everyone knows what really happened, but everyone looks down in shame, so as to avoid souring relations.

There is another situation: the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly just recently grouped together Germany and the Soviet Union, pronouncing them to be equally responsible for World War Two. Now this, quite frankly, is a flat-out lie. One can have different attitudes toward the Soviet Union; one can be critical of the Soviet Union’s political regime and the leaders of what was then our country, but this is the very issue I was just talking about – the issue of who started the war, which country killed people and which country saved people, millions of people, and which country ultimately saved Europe.

I have one final thought regarding this matter. We really must treat our history with a lot of care, especially concerning those issues that were assessed in the same way throughout the world. We cannot destroy the institutions that were formed as a result of those tragic events. We cannot disregard all those things in order to favour some states that are currently developing and are in the process of forming their national identity. We must think about the future. And this, I think, is one of the most important lessons that can be learned from the 70th anniversary of the beginning of the 20th century’s greatest catastrophe – the beginning of World War Two.

These comments are about 24 minutes into this video of the interview.

Medvedev's views are already causing a stir..

Nabucco - an opera turning into a gas war

I can recommend this well-written analysis by Daniel Freifeld, from 'Foreign Policy':

"The Great Pipeline Opera - Inside the European pipeline fantasy that became a real-life gas war with Russia."

BBC report on Ukrainian agriculture

Do not miss an excellent report from BBC's 24th August 'Newsnight' program on Ukrainian agriculture, and how western companies are moving in. A summary here

The report can be watched via this link here and available for just a few of days or so..

Beautifully filmed and edited too..

Why Medvedev is not right

Below I have loosely translate several portions from a blog by the big-selling Russian language 'Segodnya's' chief editor, Igor Guzhva.

"Why Medvedev is not right - The President of Russia is helping the national-fascists by his statements.

I am ready to put my name to practically all of the points raised in Medvedev's letter to Yushchenko. But, I am a citizen of the Ukraine - I have the right such to say these things to the President of my country. I have the right to criticize his policy of integration into NATO, since in my opinion, it does not correspond to the national interests of Ukraine. I have the right to criticize the policy of forced Ukrainization. But here Mr. Medvedev, as the President of a foreign state, does not have a right to call Yushchenko to account.

Medvedev's efforts will ensure that all Ukrainians who speak out against NATO or against Ukrainization, will automatically be treated by the authorities as fifth columnists of Russia. They will say: "Look, those bastards are singing to the tune of the Russian aggressor..."

What is worse, Medvedev is pushing many Ukrainians who are wavering into the camp of the nationalists. According to data from opinion polls, 70-75% of the population of Ukraine relate very favourably to Russia, they want them to be friends, to develop links etc. This actually is a pro-Russian majority. But only about 25-30% of Ukrainians should be considered as political Russians, i.e. those, who are in favor of the re-creation a political union with Russia in one form or another.

The remainder, i.e. 40-50% of the pro-Russian majority do not want spoil relations with Russia in any way, they want open boundaries, they are not ready to go in NATO, particularly as the overwhelming majority do not love the Americans, and they do not need any forced Ukrainization. But they have become accustomed to independence. For many of them it has become valuable, and they are fearful of changes that could lead to its possible loss. They are fearful of the reaction of the West and of the threat of isolation of the country.

Many of them, in general, are not against even some form of economic integration with Russia, but do not support major changes whereby Russia would [again] pose as the 'older brother'. When Russia adopts this pose and starts to talk on the lines of what Ukraine should or should not do, or suggesting the country be split...then these 40-45% begin to get agitated and, many of them become the prey of the nationalists who shout about the Russian threat...

There is a greater task - of moulding a new Ukrainian patriotism, based not on hatred for Russia, but on the respect for its sovereignty and uniqueness, and on its protection, including, also, from the West.

But the statement of Medvedev, does it help or hinder the accomplishment of these objectives? Certainly it hinders. It throws into the camp of the enemies of Russia and nationalists the Central Ukrainian ordinary Joe who does not like the Americans for their bombing of Yugoslavia, who supports the Russian team in the European championship, who despises Yushchenko, and curses "Yulka" the fibber [brekhukhu], fears the Banderites, respects Putin and celebrates on May 9th his main commemorative day. But the ordinary Joe does not want for someone from the outside, neither from Russia nor the West, to dictate what is right for Ukraine and what is not.

There are many such Joes, not only in central Ukraine, but also in the southeast, particularly amongst Russian language speakers.

And without such Joes we cannot break the back of nationalism. So it is better for our Russian brothers to remain silent...

Generally, when I speak to different public figures who speak out against NATO, for the Russian language and so forth I always give them one piece of advice. Never rely on Russia, on its forces, on its money and connections. In Moscow, alas, no intelligent policy with respect to the Ukraine has appeared. Any that exists is deeply intertwined with corrupt connections (a typical example is Rosukrenergo, or an older example isYeESU - essentially, the joint business of Tymoshenko, Lazarenko and corrupt officials in Gazprom, the Russian Ministry of Defense and other departments...

The question of entry into NATO and curtailment of forced Ukrainization must be transferred away from the plane of Russian-Ukrainian intergovermental relations (which Yushchenko wants, with the aid of Dmitriy Medvedev) into the plane of purely intra-Ukrainian policy..."

p.s. Igor Guzhva's views do not necessarily coincide with LEvko's, particularly on the language issue, but his blog gives an insight into the mindset of many Ukrainians.

Biggest national flag to be unfurled in Donetsk

I thought the following recent article on the 'Novosti Donetska' site to be quite revealing. I've translated portions below:

"Logvinenko, Bliznyuk and Lukyanchenko to unfurl largest [Ukrainian] national flag in the world

Ukrainian National Flag Day celebrations will take place in front of the Donetsk Oblast State Administration building, with the participation of the chairman of Donetsk O.S.A. V.I. Logvinenko, chairman of the Donetsk Oblast Council A.M.Bliznyuk, and Donetsk city head A.A.Lukyanchenko, on August 23 starting at 9.00 a.m.

Together with the representatives from oblast community youth organizations and those of Donetsk, the oblast and city leaders will assemble around the flag - the symbol of the unity and consolidation [sobornost] of Ukraine. The flag measures 30X45 m.

The next day, on August 24, [Independence Day] at 15.00, the largest national flag of Ukraine in the world will be carried along Khreshchatyk by representatives of all-Ukrainian community youth organizations to the Maydan Nezalezhnosti where leaders of state, well-known politicians, businessmen, artists and athletes will join the celebrations...

The article goes on to expain that the initiative to manufacture this flag came from Donetsk in 2007, and it has since been unfurled at at various historical remembrances, at historical sites etc. The flag was sewn by a Donetsk miner's widow and was later displayed around the country by young people from that city.

p.s. Also check out this from today's FT, which may or may not be connected to the above..

p.p.s. the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact was signed 70 years ago tomorrow. More on this here and here

Russia and Germany stitching up Ukraine again?

"World Agenda: Merkel and Medvedev share Ukraine's Munich moment"

This story has quickly been picked up in the Ukrainian media e.g. here and here

Will Angela now explain her lack of response?

Maybe her silence was a thank-you for last month's declaration by Russia's defence ministry that it was Poland that had provoked the second world war by refusing to yield to Germany's "modest" ultimatum demands in 1939. All Poland's fault then..The Molotov-Ribbentrop pact - very reasonably under the circumstances..

Polonium -210 trails in Hamburg...deaths of Russian journalists..hardly worth mentioning..

Tymoshenko responds to Medvedev's letter and video blog

Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has responded to President Medvedev's nasty letter and video blog [see previous blog] on the official Ukrainian Cabinet website. A mangled English version has also appeared, which I've corrected slightly for clarity:

"Following the answer of the President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko to the address of the President of the Russian Federation Dmytro Medvedev the Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko made a statement concerning Ukrainian-Russian relations.

“Despite the fact that foreign policy appears a constitution prerogative of the President I cannot keep silent about recent events in Ukrainian-Russian relations. In view of their importance I cannot but [be concerned] bother [about] with a high [the high temperature of polemics] degree of the public dispute in this topic.

The feeling of responsibility for the country is a good way for every politician to keep emotions [in check] in any situations, even hard ones.

As Prime Minister I have always done and still do all my best to deepen mutually beneficial cooperation between Ukraine and Russia, first of all, in economic sphere which is a responsibility of the Government. I will act the same way taking any other position entrusted to me by Ukrainian people.

Relations with Russia have always been built and will be built by me on [as] equals on the bas[e] of national interests, mutual benefit, respect to the sovereignty and territorial integrity.

At [Along with] this, Ukraine will determine its foreign and internal policy independently, without any external interference, including in the humanitarian area. We will be learning [studying] our own past, will be coping with our present matters, [and] will independently build our own future.

Realization by Ukraine of our [its] sovereign rights, forming of the current policy of the nation is not, [viewed] and can never be viewed as a policy directed against anyone.

We are always ready to hear and entertain thoughts of our partners on East and West alike, taking into account their interests, but meddling into our internal matters is [impermissable] unaffordable.

I would like that Ukrainian and Russian diplomats of all levels could solve the problems, which are inevitable in relations between any other countries, not by way of confrontation and public dispute but at the negotiation table.

I also consider [it to be] as inadmissible any pause in the development of cooperation between Ukraine and Russia. Our Government will be acting [to overcome] reasoning from this.

Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko

More on this story from AFP here

p.s. maybe the translators in the Cabinet of Ministers are all away on holiday..

The Russians are coming! The Russians are coming!

Watch, President Medvedev, the man in black, deliver a beligerent 5 minute video [with English subtitles], set against a balmy evening seascape, in which he describes the rapid deterioration of Russian/Ukrainian relations: here

What is it with these Russian height-challenged testosterone-charged men?

Reminds me of this old British advert for Cadbury's chocolates

Maybe fearing that his boss may have overstepped the mark, deputy head of the Kremlin's administration Aleksey Gromov says today that Dmitriy Medvedev's statement on the bad blood between Moscow and Kyiv was not directed against the Ukrainian people, but only against President Victor Yushchenko personally. [Whipping a dead horse then..]

Turning off gas supplies in the midst of winter was not directed at Ukraine's population either, I suppose..

p.s. The man in black, with Yanukovych and Putin, possibly chewing Cadbury's chocolates here

Consumerism will never make you happy

Although I have criticised many of Patriarch Kirill's pronouncements during his visit to Ukraine he did make some sensible observations on the dangers of what some writers have called 'turbo-consumerism'. Below are links to two recent newspaper articles which explain why the insatiable pursuit of "more" will never make people happy.

on "Enough is enough: learn to want less" and "Addicted to Shopping"

Will Ukraine's ruling elites take any notice? Not a chance..

Patriarch Kirill's visit to Ukraine a success? Hmm..

According to pravda.ru, during Patriarch Kirill's visit to Ukraine: "the idea of the "Holy Rus," or "the great Eastern-Slavic civilization" as a spiritual and historical, rather than a political, entity capable of saying something important to today's secularized world without forfeiting the link between the earthly and the divine, served as the leitmotif throughout all of the Patriarch's speeches."

During one Ukrainian TV appearance, he said this:

"By no means do I oppose the Western world — I know the West well and lived in the West, - but why, in dialogue with the Western world, do we accept the role of 'the led' so easily? What values do they offer us? What unique thing does this rich civilisation tell us today? Why do we give up our primacy so easily?

We are ready to enter a united Europe, into any other Europe. [But do] We enter there to receive ideas? To graft a certain correct form of life[style]? [Do] We enter there for the sake of our stomach and our pockets? Sure, this too is quite good. But let's bring our values [too]; but I do not believe that they will be ready to accept [these] values there. However, to enter as 'the led', losing spiritual primacy, renouncing our tragical, but unique, incomparable experiences, raises major doubts with me.

I think that our unity - the unity of the spiritual space of Sacred Rus, historical Rus, is a civilizing project of huge force which is not destined to be led. It is destined to generate ideas, and this is now taking place.. We have a potential for the development of a genuine dialogue between the East and the West, but not the dialogue between a horseman with a horse..."

Three years ago Adrian White, an analytic social psychologist at the University of Leicester School of Psychology, in Great Britain analysed data published by UNESCO, the CIA, the New Economics Foundation, the WHO, the Veenhoven Database, the Latinbarometer, the Afrobarometer, and the UNHDR, to create a global projection of subjective well-being: the first world map of happiness.

Studies elsewhere have produced results similar to those obtained by Adrian White.

Secular meritocratic European countries, with high standards of living, long life expectancy, excellent education, health and welfare services score very well in these comparative studies, whilst Russia, Ukraine and other former Soviet Socialist Republics fare particularly badly. For example, in Adrian White's study Russia lies at a miserable 167th position out of 178 countries. In Ukraine, the young, and particularly the ambitious and dynamic are most conscious of these great differences. I do not believe Patriarch Kirill's messages about Sacred Rus or 'the great Eastern-Slavic civilization' having anything important to say to the secularized world, or to Western European neighbours, will make much impression on these people. The man will not be taken seriously, even if he himself thinks his trip was a success..

Splashing around in the Black Sea*

Something to think about from 'The Guardian': "Stormy outlook over the Black Sea"

Why the Russia Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol is of no benefit to Russia, and why Crimea is not the hot-spot some imagine is explained in this piece from 'Gazeta.ru'

[Maybe more on this later]

*Putin doing the butterfly..while on holiday -"It may have a fug of raw, sweating masculinity about it, but it's also the most irritating of all strokes. It's splashy and unsociable, an uncompromising stroke that pays no heed to the elderly gentleman choking on chlorinated backwash in the neighbouring municipal [swimming pool] lane.."

Center for American Progress video on Ukraine

Watch a one and a half hour video of last week's presentations at the Center for American Progress by former Assistant Secretary of State David Kramer, former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Steven Pifer, and the brilliant James Sherr, head of the Russia and Eurasia program at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, discussing Ukraine’s upcoming elections, the Ukrainian economy, U.S.-Ukraine relations under the Obama administration, and the impact of the "reset" of U.S.-Russia relations on Ukraine.

Volodymyr Lytvyn was supposed to have attended too, but for some pukach reason he failed to show up.

Update: Also check out this insightful piece - '10 years of Putin', from stratfor.com, which explains why Russia is as it is..

Holy smoke! Beyonce in Donbass!

I can heartily recommend this excellent analysis by Ivan Krastev, entitled "The guns of August: non-event with consequences", on the political fallout, one year on after the Russia-Georgia war of August 2008.

The author explains why the most important outcome of the war was "Russia's unashamed affirmation as a revisionist power". He claims Russia's worldview is shaped by a profound sense of insecurity and a deep suspicion of the current world order based on economic and political interdependency...

Ukraine's finest soccer stadium, the Donbass Arena, new home of 2009 UEFA cup-winners Shaktar Dontesk, will be opened with a spectacular grand show on 29th of this month. 'Segodnya' reports there are strong rumours that top US pop singer Beyonce Knowles could be top of the bill. ['Segodnya' and Shaktar share the same owner .] There had also been rumours that Madonna could also possibly be performing...

Would the Patriarch approve? Check out this video..

Incidentally, former president Leonid Kuchma and VR speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn, about whom Pukach is no doubt loudly singing, attended an outdoor service during Patriarch Kirill's visit to Sevastopol a couple of days ago. Very moving...

Did ZZ Top attend too?

Kirill fighting the pull of the European magnet..

The head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill's 10-day visit to Ukraine has caused some disquiet, as illustrated by this recent blog on the 'Segodnya' site entitled: "The patriarch as a civilizing tool - a hyperboloid of engineer Putin" .

The author of the article disparages Patriarch Kirill's criticism of a recent OSCE declaration which equates the crimes of Nazism and Soviet Communism. [The Patriarch follows the standard Kremlin line that Stalin's crimes were merely 'excesses']. The author considers the Patriarch was given a far too open and unchallenged platform on Inter TV to air his views, and describes, what was, in his opinion, the main purpose of Patriarch Kirill's visit to Ukraine.

I've translated some portions below:

"The main message of the head of Moscow Orthodoxy was that "Sacred Russia" should not be led [or be guided] by the West". These words mean, that according to the patriarch, European (or so-called western) values do not suit the so-called Slavic mentality. The Patriarch, in the name of the church, declares that there is a certain Slavic mentality for which a special approach is necessary; and the foundation of this mentality is a certain "Sacred Russia", which, in the given context, is opposed to Western values and Ukrainian attempts to rewrite history."

The author challenges these ideas, and continues: "The aim of the "Sacred Russia" project consists only of maintaining the status quo...maintaining a spiritual influence over Ukraine which is boldly rushing into 'the abyss of Western values', (it is well known, the majority of Ukrainians support idea of entry into the European Union). The "Sanctity of Russia" is an abstract concept that not all orthodox believers can explain. It counterposes the Eastern slavic world with other orthodox peoples, e.g. Romanians and Georgians. This idea is dangerous as it declares the supremacy of one set of values over others, and carries the risk of conflict which could result in the construction of the new Iron Curtain. The main question is where its border will be - on the western, or on the eastern border of Ukraine.

In essence, the statement that Slavs do not accept European values is similar to the statement that Ukrainian officials cannot live without taking bribes. It is grandiose lie. Why should European values suit orthodox Romanians, but not orthodox Ukrainians?

Core European values include:

The preeminence of the rights of the individual

A well-developed system of social security

A well-developed system of local government

Total, or at least near-total absence of corruption

Tolerant attitude to all minority groups

Equality of people before the law and in courts

Europe without borders and customs

Secular society with full freedom of worship

Certainly, the church in its current state cannot support the points set out above for the reason that after the implementation of European legislation in Ukraine or Russia, the church would lose all levers of influence on the state... Freedom of worship does not suit the orthodox church, and in Russia legislation very rigidly regulates registration of new religious communities - lessons in Orthodoxy have already been introduced in schools.

It seems that Moscow wishes to offer Ukraine the same system of preservation of so-called "traditional values" via the mouth of the Patriarch with the help of some kind of "spiritual uplift", to enable the elite, which we so hate with all our heart, to remain in power.

For the Kremlin the main thing is that the border of European values remains on the western border of Ukraine, and Ukraine remains in sphere of influence of the Kremlin. The patriarch has arrived to rescue the Ukrainian elite, to offer it a way to eternally remain in power and 'in the money'.

The irony of the situation is that huge numbers of Ukrainians have travelled in Europe, studied in Europe, lived in Europe and know than in the EU the organisation of life differs from the organisation of life at home, so for the normally-developed person all these fairy tales on the Slavic mentality are simply nonsense. European values are craved in Ukraine and Ukraine will come to them, as will Russia. The question is only at what rates. To be an opponent of Western values in the modern world is the same as trying to stop a million hedgehogs with a naked backside. It will happen, even if all of the advocates of "Sacred Russia" try to do this..."

Incidentally, the chief editor of 'Segodnya', in his blog defends Patriarch Kirill's anti-European stance (and also reveals a surprising ignorance of attitudes amongst citizens of the EU's newest Eastern European member countries).

But I'd bet he drives a Beemer or a Merc or one of those other disgusting European motors ..

What a hypocrite..

Partriarch Kirill, in an extended TV appearance on Ukrainian television on Tuesday, spoke of the dangers of a consumerist society, the dangers of rampant greed, the fleeting satisfaction of acquiring expensive material goods and baubles..the sinfulness of inequality of wealth in society...impetuous consumption..and so on..

"..it is very important to learn Christian аsceticism," he said. "Аsceticism is not about living in a cave, аsceticism is also an ability to regulate ideas and the condition of the heart. Asceticism is the victory of a person over lust, over passions, over instinct. And it is important, that this quality be possessed by both rich and poor.. we should learn to control our instincts, our passions. And then the civilisation which we will construct will not be a consumer[ist] civilization..."

p.s. asceticism - "an austere, simple way of life in which persons renounce material pleasures and devote their energy to moral or religious purpose"

p.p.s. - see previous post..

Give us today our daily bread... and a $30K wristwatch..

Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and All Russia is currently on a lengthy and controversial visit to Ukraine.

It seems he likes expensive wristwatches..

p.s. President Barack Obama's favourite watch costs about 100 times less...

p.p.s. ..it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God...

Russian bikers 'invade' Crimea - with Putin's blessing

A couple of days ago I read good piece of analysis from a recent "Harvard International Review", by Andreas Umland. [Thanks UkrToday] It includes this passage:

"...in 2008, the Moscow leadership demonstrated in Georgia – not the least to Kiev - that it is prepared to use military force to defend vital interests in her "near abroad." Many Russian politicians have let it be known, in public, that the Crimea’s majority Russian ethnic makeup places the peninsula within Moscow's natural sphere of influence. Some even see Crimea as a part of Russia's historic territory."

Today 'Segodnya' carries this article which I've loosely translated:

"Biker's rally in Crimea seen off by a leather-jacketed Putin

Russian bikers stage their [motorcycle] rally in Sevastopol

Russian bikers held the main event of the Russian motorcycle world calendar, their 13th [annual] biker show, for the first time, in Crimea. For many years, with support of the authorities and hundreds admirers, its home had been in the Kaliningrad region of Russia where it had become a huge event. This year it was decided to commemorate the 65th anniversary of the liberation of Sevastopol and stage it in Crimea, where up to about 7 thousand bikers took part.

Besides Ukrainians, and organizers of the event - Russians, children from many countries also participated. From Russia they brought a flag which was handed to them by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. In general the dominant theme of the rally was ideological. Appeals for unity of all Slavs were constantly aired, including during a performance on stage by well-known Russian 'rocker' Konstantin Kintchev.

The leader of one of Russian biker gangs, Andrey Septenok, nicknamed Hans, shared his impressions of the event with 'Segodnya'. "We left Moscow on July7th. Putin himself came to the biker centre to see us off. He appeared in a leather jacket and 'shades'. He wrote a card of greeting and presented us with a flag. It lifted everyone's spirits! We travelled for three days to Sevastopol - through Kursk, Belgorod, Zaporozhye arriving on the night of the 10th in Sevastopol.

A stage was set up there. We had bought tickets for 400 roubles earlier at home, for the concert. In the evening we pitched a tent with the children. The concert was brilliant: Kintchev and his Alisa, "Aria", "The King and the Clown", and "Vopli Vidoplyasova". Then they showed a war chronicle film about the liberation of Sevastopol. I'm an old biker, but it's the first time I saw so many people".

The 'Segodyna' piece is illustrated with a photo entitled: "Friendship. Russian and Ukrainian flags [well, one anyway] fluttered over the bikers. "

The story just makes LEvko feel a bit uneasy..

Ukraine's good fortune

Worth reading: this excellent piece from the FT's Chrystia Freeland entitled: "Russia’s free media find a haven in Ukraine"

Here's a portion:

"The Kremlin sees Ukraine’s diverse and messy political culture as an exploitable weakness – and many Ukrainians and their western supporters despairingly agree. But, in separate conversations, the Russian journalistic refugees all argued that Ukraine’s regional divisions were the essential underpinning of its democracy, and the chief reason the country had diverged from Russia’s neo-authoritarian path.

“I don’t idealise the Ukrainian political class,” Kisiliev told me. “There are as many cynical, corrupt politicians here who would spit on democratic values as in Russia. But Ukraine’s good fortune is that, because of history, culture and geography, Ukraine is divided into a few big regions, each of which has its own culture and politics. These are also the zones of influence of various financial groups. None of those groups has the financial or electoral power to monopolise power – which happened in Russia, where Gazprom and the St Petersburg Chekists [the cabal of former KGB officers associated with Putin] usurped all political power.”

Central to this view of diversity as a fuel for democracy is the exiles’ confidence that all of Ukraine’s elites – including the Russian-speaking eastern ones – are committed to Ukrainian statehood. “The idea of a pro-Russian line in Ukrainian politics is a myth – they are all pro-Ukrainian now,” Kagalovsky said. Yet in the Kremlin, that “myth” is at the heart of policy towards Ukraine. Moscow takes as its starting point the idea that the two countries occupy a connected, if not common, cultural and social space. From there it is a short step to the Putin regime’s conviction that the two countries’ political paths should likewise run in parallel."

UK parliamentary defence committee says, "Get tough with Russia"

"However desirable co-operation with Russia may be, it should not come at the price of accepting the legitimacy of a Russian sphere of influence.." More here

Ruling elite secure outside of the law

Members of the ruling elite, have recently been allegedly involved in major criminal acts, including a possible brutal murder, but are quick to accuse each other of flouting law.

President Yushchenko's son, Andriy allegedly recently repeatedly fired a hand gun in the direction of a former deputy minister of emergency affairs after a night-time road traffic altercation.

This is not the first time he has been involved in such an incident. Just over three years ago a member of Kyiv's prosecutor's office was allegedly assaulted and shot at by Andriy and his bodyguard, also following a road traffic carve-up.

Who has the key to the "black-box"?

FT reports:

"Progress was made in talks aimed at preventing the latest Russia-Ukraine gas dispute from becoming a full-blown crisis, the European Commission reported on Monday.
Participants at the meeting in Brussels, including the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, stressed that any financial assistance to help the recession-battered Ukrainian government pay its bills would be contingent on continued reform of its gas sector.

They also lowered their estimates for the amount of support Ukraine would need to fill its own gas needs and serve European customers through the winter. One attendee put the figure as low as $2bn – or less than half of previous estimates.

“I think we have a much better sense coming out of this meeting what sort of figure we are looking at, and that figure is certainly less than $4.2bn,” a Commission spokesperson said.

The threat of an imminent supply cut – warned of earlier this month by José Manuel Barroso, Commission president – may depend on Ukraine’s ability to make good on a roughly $300m payment on July 7 to cover its June gas imports. The government says it has so far collected about $150m to do so.

But the larger question remains whether cash-strapped Ukraine will be able to pay for the stockpiles of Russian gas necessary to fill its own needs and supply European consumers throughout the winter. Europe relies on Russia for about 25 per cent of its gas imports, some 80 per cent of which flow through Ukraine.

As of early June, Ukraine claimed to have nearly 20bn cubic metres in storage, and a maximum capacity of 32bn cubic metres.

Prior to Monday’s meeting, the Commission had estimated the country might require as much as 19.5bn cubic metres of additional gas to last until the end of the year. Russia had pegged the cost at $4.2bn.

But one attendee said the parties had determined yesterday that an additional 8bn -10bn cubic metres would likely suffice – a sum that would cost roughly $2bn.

In addition to uncertainty about the weather, the calculations are being complicated by the economic crisis, which has reduced gas demand and prices across Europe. Officials are also struggling with the opacity of the Russia-Ukraine gas trade, which one likened to “a black-box”.

The Commission has insisted it has neither the means nor the inclination to step in as a lender. Still, it was hoping to use the meeting to establish conditions for any loans, including greater transparency.

Monday’s meeting also included representatives from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the European Investment Bank, as well as executives from western gas companies. Also present were officials from the Ukrainian government and Naftogaz, as well as Alexander Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Gazprom."

*When you've got them by the balls..

"Energy fuels new 'Great Game' in Europe"

Link to video tomorrow.

*When you've got them by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow.."

Update: The video is about 22 minutes into this clip.

PoR and BYuT will work together again

The PoR/BYuT party coalition talks having collapsed, their leaders Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko have instantly declared they will both stand for president in elections taking place in half a year's time.

Most commentators consider both parties entered into negotiations for cynical, self-serving purposes - dividing political power between themselves and shutting out other political opponents.

Despite their failure to come to agreement, it would appear both sides entered their long and difficult negotiations in a serious and committed manner. And it is likely that negotiations between the two biggest Ukrainian political parties will again be rejoined, both on ammending the constitution, and on a common economic crisis resolution program, after the presidential elections, as both agree these are the most critical matters requiring attention.

Most speculations on the parties' secret negotiations had been focussed on constitutional issues, but one of PoR's most senior figures, Boris Kolesnikov, also mentioned economic matters in an interview in 'Segodnya' last Friday.

Here is a portion:

Qu - What the point of moving parliamentary elections 15 months forward from September 2012 to the Spring of 2014?
A - The central objective of this extension [is that] this [would be] the end of the first stage of reforms for overcoming the crisis. In order to restore production volumes and to go further, two and a half years would not be sufficient.

Qu Do you have some concrete reform plan already? For example, the first 10, 50, 100 steps?
A - I would not want to get ahead of myself, but, certainly, such a plan exists or, to be more precise, is near finalisation. Soon the leaders of our parties [PoR and BYuT] will announce it. But certainly, it will be directed toward the creation of favorable conditions for the attraction of investments. Including by means of reductions in taxes. Further - the state's policy must be transparent for investors. The supremacy of the law, guarantees of investments, are necessary.

Qu - Can you tell us the order of actions: what comes first - changing the constitution or forming the coalition?
A There is no point to forming a coalition without [first making] constitutional changes. So first changes to the constitution, acceptance in the first reading, and then formation of a coalition as a mechanism for realising the constitutional changes.

It's over..

PM Tymoshenko has blamed Viktor Yanukovych for walking out on negotiations on formation of the PoR/BYuT coalition. If agreement had been achieved it had been speculated that Yanukovych could have been voted President in parliament, and Tymoshenko's term as PM extended until 2015 when simultaneous parliamentary and presidential elections could have been eventually held.

As I suggested in a previous blog, because of Yanukovych's and PoR's strong ratings, logically there never was that much in it for them - they may probably gain success in subsequent presidential and parliamentary elections in any case.

Tymoshenko would have had much more to gain from a PoR/BYuT deal because her new partners would have had to take their share of responsibility for any further economic failures while she remained PM.

Yushchenko would have been able to raise his profile by accusing Yanukovych and Tymoshenko of cynically fixing the democratic process in the country, turning it into a oligarchy - power being held by a small elite segment of society. [But isn't this largely the case already?]

It was PoR leaders with the shadiest backgrounds, like Boris Kolesnikov and Andriy Kluyev, who were supportive of the 'shyrka'. It would have guaranteed them [and their assets] a quiet future.

Tymoshenko released an emotional statement tonight on the current political situation She denied that election of president in parliament, extension of the authority of parliament, or curtailing the freedom of expression were ever under discussion.

"I will never drop my arms, and will not stop my fight with the crisis. Today I am on my own, one-on-one with this crisis. From the others - irresponsibility and conscious resistance to my work. But even this will not hinder us from winning...
But if the men do not have enough courage, responsiblity, do not have sufficient dignity and honour, then I have enough of these. And because of this, now, to prove that you did not stand on all of the maidans, streets and squares in vain, I declare that I'm going to stand in the presidential elections, and I will be victorious!"

She will be a fearsome opponent..

Will PRyBYuT fly?

A straw poll in 'Segodnya' asks readers:

What can Ukraine expect in the event of a Por/BYuT coalition?

Latest results:

• On the whole, the new coalition will not change anything in the country 32%
• A reduction of democracy and usurpation of authority by the two major parties 24%
• Quick quarreling between the two parties and renewed confrontation between president Yanukovych and PM Tymoshenko 24%
• Stabilisation of the political situation 9%
• More effective emergence of the country from the crisis 7%
  Improved relationships with Russia and a struggle with Ukrainian nationalists 5%
  

Quite a few BYuT deputies are sceptical about the formation of PoR/ByuT.

And 'Regiony' have doubters in their ranks also. Yanukovych and Tymoshenko have a big job on in order to 'make it fly'.

What's in it for Yanik?

At the time of writing PM Yulia Tymoshenko, PoR leader Viktor Yanukovych, and VR speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn are still in talks on the possible formation of a PoR/BYuT broad coalition. No-one really knows what the chances of success are.

But the question has to be asked, what's in it for Yanukovych? He is easily the most popular politician in Ukraine, and his party are well-funded. He would most likely win any scheduled presidential elections early next year, or this year, if president Yushchenko were to call early presidential elections. Parliamentary oppositions always strive to bring down the incumbent government, particularly if it is as 'wobbly', as the current administration is in Ukraine. This could still happen. So why go for coalition?

It's true that the oligarchs and financial-industrial groups that dominate Ukraine's major parties crave the political peace and stability a PoR/BYuT coalition could possibly bring. And none of them is keen to 'stump up' the $1/2Bn required for a presidential election campaign at the height of a global economic crisis.

Events last September proved PoR and BYuT had spent a busy summer recess last year plotting on how to weaken the president's powers. It is clear now that dialogue continued between them until now, and that PoR fancied such a 'shyrka' [the broad coalition now being proposed].

In 2005 Yushchenko dismissed Yulia Tymoshenko from her PM's position a few months after the orange revolution. In 2007 he dismissed a PoR-led VR in a constitutionally most dubious manner, leading to Yanukovych's exit from the PM's office, so both have a common enemy.

And it is possible that 'the new kid on the block', Arseniy Yatseniuk could 'pip' both of them to the presidency in the next presidential elections, so maybe not a bad idea to 'shut him out'.

But none of this IMO is sufficient for Yanukovych to join Tymoshenko in a PoR/BYuT coalition with Tymoshenko remaining PM, even if he were to be elected president in parliament in half a year's time. PoR have no other credible candidate for president apart from Yanukovych.

I believe that Yanukovych is aware that in any future presidential election he, personally, with his shady background would again be placed under the microscope, as during the 2004 campaign. It would be dirty - and no doubt, painful for him. And some of the mud always sticks.

A deal now with BYuT would 'clear the slate', provide absolution of previous sins - he would become a man worthy of the presidency - his criminal background, the theatrical collapse caused by the egg, the sweeties for Putin, proffessorships etc. all transferred to a previous life. He would be able to hold his head up high amongst the ranks of the righteous - his place in history secure. And to be able to present the winning football team with their medals in 2012 - the whole of Europe watching - what a prize!

A fresh start?

Sorry for not posting for a while.

There have been lots of articles and interviews recently speculating about secret meetings between Ukraine's leading politicians attempting to form of a previously-unthinkable PoR-BYuT-Lytvynite grand coalition. Perhaps some tail-enders could join too. By all accounts there is now a distinct possibility that such a coalition could come into being very soon.

One of the main features of such a coalition would be an agreement to change the constitution, enabling the new president [i.e. Yanukovych] to be elected by parliament. Under this arrangement PM Tymoshenko would remain in her current position for several years, and Volodymyr Lytvyn would remain VR speaker.

Sure, the ruling elites are blatantly rigging the democratic system. But if such a grand coalition could improve political stability and help the country get through the current global economic crisis maybe neutral observers whould not be too critical..The years since the Orange Revolution have not been a success, so maybe it's time start afresh..

However, president Yushchenko may be ready to take the radical step of sacrificing himself and 'self-destructing' by resigning his presidency - forcing early presidential elections and scuppering any chance of any PoR-BYuT deal..

Baloha resignation could be time bomb..

Having sensationally resigned, how much kompromat has Baloha taken out of the president's secretariat? According to Vasyl Baziv, [remember him? - he was one of those who sneered about Yushchenko's poisoning in 2004] Baloha could blow the whistle on the president.

Baloha claims Yushchenko: "has no moral right to run for president again." So if Yushchenko does so, will Baloha 'reveal all the dirt'?

Meanwhile, there are major divisions looming in PoR between the Donetskiites and the Luhanskiites [Dons and Lugs]..

Update: According to 'ProUA', "Ex-head of president's secretariat to drown Party of Region's leader's rivals in kompromat..." "Backstabber" Baloha is not wasting any time then..

Will Frankfurters forward film evidence?

423 VR deputies have today overwhelmingly voted to recommend the Cabinet of Ministers temporarily suspends Minister of Internal Affairs Yuriy Lutsenko pending a parliamentary investigation of last week's melee involving the minister at Frankfurt airport. [See previous blogs] PM Tymoshenko says she will follow the VR's recommendation and suspend Lutsenko.

Lutsenko's press secretary Inna Kysil, commenting on the events surrounding the boss's behaviour at the airport airport today said: "We really want video recordings from the airport security system to appear [in the hands of] Ukrainian journalists - in this way all the 'i's will be dotted and 't's crossed. Then there will be fewer questions for the minister, and less manipulation by politicians. But we have not recieved an answer to our requests for transfer of this video."

I mentioned the importance of video evidence in last Thursday's blog.

Lutsenko to survive?

Last week's fracas at Frankfurt airport involving Minister of the Interior Yuriy Lutsenko has been picked up by some the world's press.

Naturally, the opposition is taking full advantage of the situation to destablise an already-wobbly government, but Lutsenko would probably survive any motion in the Verkhovna Rada to sack him - a cynic would say this was reason he offered his resignation in the first place...

German authorities have furnished the Ukrainian consulate in Frankfurt with a report of the incident. According to a German spokesman, "We are talking not only of resistance to law enforcement officials, but of dangerous bodily harm and offence to dignity." [The German police involved will no doubt claim compensation for damages, like this British police mechanic, who received £500,000 for a cut finger.. ]

Apparently Lutsenko's 19-year old son, around whom the incident was centred, has recently endured medical procedures to treat thyroid cancer, and undertook a chemotherapy programme in Austria, allegedly [and curiously] paid for by PoR deputy Andriy Klyuev.

It is quite possible, and understandable, that having seen his son being roughly treated by German officials, Lutsenko overreacted. There may be some sympathy for him amongst his Ukrainian colleagues - a PoR deputy recently complained of prejudicial and coarse treatment by German airport officials in Berlin. And Vitaliy Klychko was involved in a spot of bother at Frankfurt airport in March - he has now commenced legal proceedings in this matter. Ukrainians have suffered bad experiences at the hands of Germans in uniforms in the past...maybe one of those at Frankfurt was called Adolf...

Lutsenko's drinking adds another twist to political uncertainty

Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Lutsenko's and his son's drunken behaviour at Frankfurt airport could have serious political consequences. Lutsenko is leader of the 'NS' or Narodnya Samooborona' part of NUNS. Ominously, his people are already saying nothing happened in Frankfurt, and that the "incident"was nothing but dirty tricks by the opposition.

If his parliamentary Nasha Ukraina and BYuT partners decide support PoR's call to sack him he could bring down the whole flimsy ruling coalition.

p.s. The NS website grandly declares that the party's principles are:

1. Do not steal and don't allow others to steal
2. Do not lie, and don't allow others to lie..
3. Do not take or give bribes.
4. Do not be afraid to fight for your rights.
5. Love Ukraine.

Surveillance videos from the German airport should prove if Lutsenko is adhering to them..

Yushchenko to fade away?

Following president Yushchenko's appeal, Ukraine's Consitutional Court today decided that there are no legal grounds for him to disband Verkhovna Rada. He had claimed the current cabinet was not legally in power, because it had not resigned after the parliamentary coalition had been reshuffled.

The CC Chief Justice Andry Stryzhak, at a press conference, said that only the ruling coalition in parliament has the authority to form a new cabinet and appoint a new premier.

Everybody knows Yushchenko's term in office is drawing to a close. He and his associates are going the way of the Chesire Cat in this clip from 'Alice in Wonderland'. People will be looking to the future - it unlikely many decisions will go his way now on.