What a hypocrite..

Partriarch Kirill, in an extended TV appearance on Ukrainian television on Tuesday, spoke of the dangers of a consumerist society, the dangers of rampant greed, the fleeting satisfaction of acquiring expensive material goods and baubles..the sinfulness of inequality of wealth in society...impetuous consumption..and so on..

"..it is very important to learn Christian аsceticism," he said. "Аsceticism is not about living in a cave, аsceticism is also an ability to regulate ideas and the condition of the heart. Asceticism is the victory of a person over lust, over passions, over instinct. And it is important, that this quality be possessed by both rich and poor.. we should learn to control our instincts, our passions. And then the civilisation which we will construct will not be a consumer[ist] civilization..."

p.s. asceticism - "an austere, simple way of life in which persons renounce material pleasures and devote their energy to moral or religious purpose"

p.p.s. - see previous post..

Give us today our daily bread... and a $30K wristwatch..

Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and All Russia is currently on a lengthy and controversial visit to Ukraine.

It seems he likes expensive wristwatches..

p.s. President Barack Obama's favourite watch costs about 100 times less...

p.p.s. ..it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God...

Russian bikers 'invade' Crimea - with Putin's blessing

A couple of days ago I read good piece of analysis from a recent "Harvard International Review", by Andreas Umland. [Thanks UkrToday] It includes this passage:

"...in 2008, the Moscow leadership demonstrated in Georgia – not the least to Kiev - that it is prepared to use military force to defend vital interests in her "near abroad." Many Russian politicians have let it be known, in public, that the Crimea’s majority Russian ethnic makeup places the peninsula within Moscow's natural sphere of influence. Some even see Crimea as a part of Russia's historic territory."

Today 'Segodnya' carries this article which I've loosely translated:

"Biker's rally in Crimea seen off by a leather-jacketed Putin

Russian bikers stage their [motorcycle] rally in Sevastopol

Russian bikers held the main event of the Russian motorcycle world calendar, their 13th [annual] biker show, for the first time, in Crimea. For many years, with support of the authorities and hundreds admirers, its home had been in the Kaliningrad region of Russia where it had become a huge event. This year it was decided to commemorate the 65th anniversary of the liberation of Sevastopol and stage it in Crimea, where up to about 7 thousand bikers took part.

Besides Ukrainians, and organizers of the event - Russians, children from many countries also participated. From Russia they brought a flag which was handed to them by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. In general the dominant theme of the rally was ideological. Appeals for unity of all Slavs were constantly aired, including during a performance on stage by well-known Russian 'rocker' Konstantin Kintchev.

The leader of one of Russian biker gangs, Andrey Septenok, nicknamed Hans, shared his impressions of the event with 'Segodnya'. "We left Moscow on July7th. Putin himself came to the biker centre to see us off. He appeared in a leather jacket and 'shades'. He wrote a card of greeting and presented us with a flag. It lifted everyone's spirits! We travelled for three days to Sevastopol - through Kursk, Belgorod, Zaporozhye arriving on the night of the 10th in Sevastopol.

A stage was set up there. We had bought tickets for 400 roubles earlier at home, for the concert. In the evening we pitched a tent with the children. The concert was brilliant: Kintchev and his Alisa, "Aria", "The King and the Clown", and "Vopli Vidoplyasova". Then they showed a war chronicle film about the liberation of Sevastopol. I'm an old biker, but it's the first time I saw so many people".

The 'Segodyna' piece is illustrated with a photo entitled: "Friendship. Russian and Ukrainian flags [well, one anyway] fluttered over the bikers. "

The story just makes LEvko feel a bit uneasy..

Ukraine's good fortune

Worth reading: this excellent piece from the FT's Chrystia Freeland entitled: "Russia’s free media find a haven in Ukraine"

Here's a portion:

"The Kremlin sees Ukraine’s diverse and messy political culture as an exploitable weakness – and many Ukrainians and their western supporters despairingly agree. But, in separate conversations, the Russian journalistic refugees all argued that Ukraine’s regional divisions were the essential underpinning of its democracy, and the chief reason the country had diverged from Russia’s neo-authoritarian path.

“I don’t idealise the Ukrainian political class,” Kisiliev told me. “There are as many cynical, corrupt politicians here who would spit on democratic values as in Russia. But Ukraine’s good fortune is that, because of history, culture and geography, Ukraine is divided into a few big regions, each of which has its own culture and politics. These are also the zones of influence of various financial groups. None of those groups has the financial or electoral power to monopolise power – which happened in Russia, where Gazprom and the St Petersburg Chekists [the cabal of former KGB officers associated with Putin] usurped all political power.”

Central to this view of diversity as a fuel for democracy is the exiles’ confidence that all of Ukraine’s elites – including the Russian-speaking eastern ones – are committed to Ukrainian statehood. “The idea of a pro-Russian line in Ukrainian politics is a myth – they are all pro-Ukrainian now,” Kagalovsky said. Yet in the Kremlin, that “myth” is at the heart of policy towards Ukraine. Moscow takes as its starting point the idea that the two countries occupy a connected, if not common, cultural and social space. From there it is a short step to the Putin regime’s conviction that the two countries’ political paths should likewise run in parallel."

UK parliamentary defence committee says, "Get tough with Russia"

"However desirable co-operation with Russia may be, it should not come at the price of accepting the legitimacy of a Russian sphere of influence.." More here

Ruling elite secure outside of the law

Members of the ruling elite, have recently been allegedly involved in major criminal acts, including a possible brutal murder, but are quick to accuse each other of flouting law.

President Yushchenko's son, Andriy allegedly recently repeatedly fired a hand gun in the direction of a former deputy minister of emergency affairs after a night-time road traffic altercation.

This is not the first time he has been involved in such an incident. Just over three years ago a member of Kyiv's prosecutor's office was allegedly assaulted and shot at by Andriy and his bodyguard, also following a road traffic carve-up.

Who has the key to the "black-box"?

FT reports:

"Progress was made in talks aimed at preventing the latest Russia-Ukraine gas dispute from becoming a full-blown crisis, the European Commission reported on Monday.
Participants at the meeting in Brussels, including the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, stressed that any financial assistance to help the recession-battered Ukrainian government pay its bills would be contingent on continued reform of its gas sector.

They also lowered their estimates for the amount of support Ukraine would need to fill its own gas needs and serve European customers through the winter. One attendee put the figure as low as $2bn – or less than half of previous estimates.

“I think we have a much better sense coming out of this meeting what sort of figure we are looking at, and that figure is certainly less than $4.2bn,” a Commission spokesperson said.

The threat of an imminent supply cut – warned of earlier this month by José Manuel Barroso, Commission president – may depend on Ukraine’s ability to make good on a roughly $300m payment on July 7 to cover its June gas imports. The government says it has so far collected about $150m to do so.

But the larger question remains whether cash-strapped Ukraine will be able to pay for the stockpiles of Russian gas necessary to fill its own needs and supply European consumers throughout the winter. Europe relies on Russia for about 25 per cent of its gas imports, some 80 per cent of which flow through Ukraine.

As of early June, Ukraine claimed to have nearly 20bn cubic metres in storage, and a maximum capacity of 32bn cubic metres.

Prior to Monday’s meeting, the Commission had estimated the country might require as much as 19.5bn cubic metres of additional gas to last until the end of the year. Russia had pegged the cost at $4.2bn.

But one attendee said the parties had determined yesterday that an additional 8bn -10bn cubic metres would likely suffice – a sum that would cost roughly $2bn.

In addition to uncertainty about the weather, the calculations are being complicated by the economic crisis, which has reduced gas demand and prices across Europe. Officials are also struggling with the opacity of the Russia-Ukraine gas trade, which one likened to “a black-box”.

The Commission has insisted it has neither the means nor the inclination to step in as a lender. Still, it was hoping to use the meeting to establish conditions for any loans, including greater transparency.

Monday’s meeting also included representatives from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the European Investment Bank, as well as executives from western gas companies. Also present were officials from the Ukrainian government and Naftogaz, as well as Alexander Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Gazprom."

*When you've got them by the balls..

"Energy fuels new 'Great Game' in Europe"

Link to video tomorrow.

*When you've got them by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow.."

Update: The video is about 22 minutes into this clip.

PoR and BYuT will work together again

The PoR/BYuT party coalition talks having collapsed, their leaders Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko have instantly declared they will both stand for president in elections taking place in half a year's time.

Most commentators consider both parties entered into negotiations for cynical, self-serving purposes - dividing political power between themselves and shutting out other political opponents.

Despite their failure to come to agreement, it would appear both sides entered their long and difficult negotiations in a serious and committed manner. And it is likely that negotiations between the two biggest Ukrainian political parties will again be rejoined, both on ammending the constitution, and on a common economic crisis resolution program, after the presidential elections, as both agree these are the most critical matters requiring attention.

Most speculations on the parties' secret negotiations had been focussed on constitutional issues, but one of PoR's most senior figures, Boris Kolesnikov, also mentioned economic matters in an interview in 'Segodnya' last Friday.

Here is a portion:

Qu - What the point of moving parliamentary elections 15 months forward from September 2012 to the Spring of 2014?
A - The central objective of this extension [is that] this [would be] the end of the first stage of reforms for overcoming the crisis. In order to restore production volumes and to go further, two and a half years would not be sufficient.

Qu Do you have some concrete reform plan already? For example, the first 10, 50, 100 steps?
A - I would not want to get ahead of myself, but, certainly, such a plan exists or, to be more precise, is near finalisation. Soon the leaders of our parties [PoR and BYuT] will announce it. But certainly, it will be directed toward the creation of favorable conditions for the attraction of investments. Including by means of reductions in taxes. Further - the state's policy must be transparent for investors. The supremacy of the law, guarantees of investments, are necessary.

Qu - Can you tell us the order of actions: what comes first - changing the constitution or forming the coalition?
A There is no point to forming a coalition without [first making] constitutional changes. So first changes to the constitution, acceptance in the first reading, and then formation of a coalition as a mechanism for realising the constitutional changes.

It's over..

PM Tymoshenko has blamed Viktor Yanukovych for walking out on negotiations on formation of the PoR/BYuT coalition. If agreement had been achieved it had been speculated that Yanukovych could have been voted President in parliament, and Tymoshenko's term as PM extended until 2015 when simultaneous parliamentary and presidential elections could have been eventually held.

As I suggested in a previous blog, because of Yanukovych's and PoR's strong ratings, logically there never was that much in it for them - they may probably gain success in subsequent presidential and parliamentary elections in any case.

Tymoshenko would have had much more to gain from a PoR/BYuT deal because her new partners would have had to take their share of responsibility for any further economic failures while she remained PM.

Yushchenko would have been able to raise his profile by accusing Yanukovych and Tymoshenko of cynically fixing the democratic process in the country, turning it into a oligarchy - power being held by a small elite segment of society. [But isn't this largely the case already?]

It was PoR leaders with the shadiest backgrounds, like Boris Kolesnikov and Andriy Kluyev, who were supportive of the 'shyrka'. It would have guaranteed them [and their assets] a quiet future.

Tymoshenko released an emotional statement tonight on the current political situation She denied that election of president in parliament, extension of the authority of parliament, or curtailing the freedom of expression were ever under discussion.

"I will never drop my arms, and will not stop my fight with the crisis. Today I am on my own, one-on-one with this crisis. From the others - irresponsibility and conscious resistance to my work. But even this will not hinder us from winning...
But if the men do not have enough courage, responsiblity, do not have sufficient dignity and honour, then I have enough of these. And because of this, now, to prove that you did not stand on all of the maidans, streets and squares in vain, I declare that I'm going to stand in the presidential elections, and I will be victorious!"

She will be a fearsome opponent..

Will PRyBYuT fly?

A straw poll in 'Segodnya' asks readers:

What can Ukraine expect in the event of a Por/BYuT coalition?

Latest results:

• On the whole, the new coalition will not change anything in the country 32%
• A reduction of democracy and usurpation of authority by the two major parties 24%
• Quick quarreling between the two parties and renewed confrontation between president Yanukovych and PM Tymoshenko 24%
• Stabilisation of the political situation 9%
• More effective emergence of the country from the crisis 7%
  Improved relationships with Russia and a struggle with Ukrainian nationalists 5%
  

Quite a few BYuT deputies are sceptical about the formation of PoR/ByuT.

And 'Regiony' have doubters in their ranks also. Yanukovych and Tymoshenko have a big job on in order to 'make it fly'.

What's in it for Yanik?

At the time of writing PM Yulia Tymoshenko, PoR leader Viktor Yanukovych, and VR speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn are still in talks on the possible formation of a PoR/BYuT broad coalition. No-one really knows what the chances of success are.

But the question has to be asked, what's in it for Yanukovych? He is easily the most popular politician in Ukraine, and his party are well-funded. He would most likely win any scheduled presidential elections early next year, or this year, if president Yushchenko were to call early presidential elections. Parliamentary oppositions always strive to bring down the incumbent government, particularly if it is as 'wobbly', as the current administration is in Ukraine. This could still happen. So why go for coalition?

It's true that the oligarchs and financial-industrial groups that dominate Ukraine's major parties crave the political peace and stability a PoR/BYuT coalition could possibly bring. And none of them is keen to 'stump up' the $1/2Bn required for a presidential election campaign at the height of a global economic crisis.

Events last September proved PoR and BYuT had spent a busy summer recess last year plotting on how to weaken the president's powers. It is clear now that dialogue continued between them until now, and that PoR fancied such a 'shyrka' [the broad coalition now being proposed].

In 2005 Yushchenko dismissed Yulia Tymoshenko from her PM's position a few months after the orange revolution. In 2007 he dismissed a PoR-led VR in a constitutionally most dubious manner, leading to Yanukovych's exit from the PM's office, so both have a common enemy.

And it is possible that 'the new kid on the block', Arseniy Yatseniuk could 'pip' both of them to the presidency in the next presidential elections, so maybe not a bad idea to 'shut him out'.

But none of this IMO is sufficient for Yanukovych to join Tymoshenko in a PoR/BYuT coalition with Tymoshenko remaining PM, even if he were to be elected president in parliament in half a year's time. PoR have no other credible candidate for president apart from Yanukovych.

I believe that Yanukovych is aware that in any future presidential election he, personally, with his shady background would again be placed under the microscope, as during the 2004 campaign. It would be dirty - and no doubt, painful for him. And some of the mud always sticks.

A deal now with BYuT would 'clear the slate', provide absolution of previous sins - he would become a man worthy of the presidency - his criminal background, the theatrical collapse caused by the egg, the sweeties for Putin, proffessorships etc. all transferred to a previous life. He would be able to hold his head up high amongst the ranks of the righteous - his place in history secure. And to be able to present the winning football team with their medals in 2012 - the whole of Europe watching - what a prize!

A fresh start?

Sorry for not posting for a while.

There have been lots of articles and interviews recently speculating about secret meetings between Ukraine's leading politicians attempting to form of a previously-unthinkable PoR-BYuT-Lytvynite grand coalition. Perhaps some tail-enders could join too. By all accounts there is now a distinct possibility that such a coalition could come into being very soon.

One of the main features of such a coalition would be an agreement to change the constitution, enabling the new president [i.e. Yanukovych] to be elected by parliament. Under this arrangement PM Tymoshenko would remain in her current position for several years, and Volodymyr Lytvyn would remain VR speaker.

Sure, the ruling elites are blatantly rigging the democratic system. But if such a grand coalition could improve political stability and help the country get through the current global economic crisis maybe neutral observers whould not be too critical..The years since the Orange Revolution have not been a success, so maybe it's time start afresh..

However, president Yushchenko may be ready to take the radical step of sacrificing himself and 'self-destructing' by resigning his presidency - forcing early presidential elections and scuppering any chance of any PoR-BYuT deal..

Baloha resignation could be time bomb..

Having sensationally resigned, how much kompromat has Baloha taken out of the president's secretariat? According to Vasyl Baziv, [remember him? - he was one of those who sneered about Yushchenko's poisoning in 2004] Baloha could blow the whistle on the president.

Baloha claims Yushchenko: "has no moral right to run for president again." So if Yushchenko does so, will Baloha 'reveal all the dirt'?

Meanwhile, there are major divisions looming in PoR between the Donetskiites and the Luhanskiites [Dons and Lugs]..

Update: According to 'ProUA', "Ex-head of president's secretariat to drown Party of Region's leader's rivals in kompromat..." "Backstabber" Baloha is not wasting any time then..

Will Frankfurters forward film evidence?

423 VR deputies have today overwhelmingly voted to recommend the Cabinet of Ministers temporarily suspends Minister of Internal Affairs Yuriy Lutsenko pending a parliamentary investigation of last week's melee involving the minister at Frankfurt airport. [See previous blogs] PM Tymoshenko says she will follow the VR's recommendation and suspend Lutsenko.

Lutsenko's press secretary Inna Kysil, commenting on the events surrounding the boss's behaviour at the airport airport today said: "We really want video recordings from the airport security system to appear [in the hands of] Ukrainian journalists - in this way all the 'i's will be dotted and 't's crossed. Then there will be fewer questions for the minister, and less manipulation by politicians. But we have not recieved an answer to our requests for transfer of this video."

I mentioned the importance of video evidence in last Thursday's blog.

Lutsenko to survive?

Last week's fracas at Frankfurt airport involving Minister of the Interior Yuriy Lutsenko has been picked up by some the world's press.

Naturally, the opposition is taking full advantage of the situation to destablise an already-wobbly government, but Lutsenko would probably survive any motion in the Verkhovna Rada to sack him - a cynic would say this was reason he offered his resignation in the first place...

German authorities have furnished the Ukrainian consulate in Frankfurt with a report of the incident. According to a German spokesman, "We are talking not only of resistance to law enforcement officials, but of dangerous bodily harm and offence to dignity." [The German police involved will no doubt claim compensation for damages, like this British police mechanic, who received £500,000 for a cut finger.. ]

Apparently Lutsenko's 19-year old son, around whom the incident was centred, has recently endured medical procedures to treat thyroid cancer, and undertook a chemotherapy programme in Austria, allegedly [and curiously] paid for by PoR deputy Andriy Klyuev.

It is quite possible, and understandable, that having seen his son being roughly treated by German officials, Lutsenko overreacted. There may be some sympathy for him amongst his Ukrainian colleagues - a PoR deputy recently complained of prejudicial and coarse treatment by German airport officials in Berlin. And Vitaliy Klychko was involved in a spot of bother at Frankfurt airport in March - he has now commenced legal proceedings in this matter. Ukrainians have suffered bad experiences at the hands of Germans in uniforms in the past...maybe one of those at Frankfurt was called Adolf...

Lutsenko's drinking adds another twist to political uncertainty

Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Lutsenko's and his son's drunken behaviour at Frankfurt airport could have serious political consequences. Lutsenko is leader of the 'NS' or Narodnya Samooborona' part of NUNS. Ominously, his people are already saying nothing happened in Frankfurt, and that the "incident"was nothing but dirty tricks by the opposition.

If his parliamentary Nasha Ukraina and BYuT partners decide support PoR's call to sack him he could bring down the whole flimsy ruling coalition.

p.s. The NS website grandly declares that the party's principles are:

1. Do not steal and don't allow others to steal
2. Do not lie, and don't allow others to lie..
3. Do not take or give bribes.
4. Do not be afraid to fight for your rights.
5. Love Ukraine.

Surveillance videos from the German airport should prove if Lutsenko is adhering to them..

Yushchenko to fade away?

Following president Yushchenko's appeal, Ukraine's Consitutional Court today decided that there are no legal grounds for him to disband Verkhovna Rada. He had claimed the current cabinet was not legally in power, because it had not resigned after the parliamentary coalition had been reshuffled.

The CC Chief Justice Andry Stryzhak, at a press conference, said that only the ruling coalition in parliament has the authority to form a new cabinet and appoint a new premier.

Everybody knows Yushchenko's term in office is drawing to a close. He and his associates are going the way of the Chesire Cat in this clip from 'Alice in Wonderland'. People will be looking to the future - it unlikely many decisions will go his way now on.

YKIMS*

A good write-up on today's business-like Putin-Tymoshenko meeting from AFP here.

Today's 'Kommersant' predicted earlier that Tymoshenko would propose formation of a new gas consortium to Putin.

Here are excerpts from the article:

"Mr. Oleksandr Hudyma [a BYuT parliamentary deputy and fuel and energy adviser to the PM] stated that the Ukrainian side intends to propose a joint project to increase the capacity of the Ukrainian gas transit system [GTS]. By reconstructing the Ivantsevychi-Dolyna pipeline and constructing a Bogorodchany- Uzhgorod pipeline, with minimal investments of the order of $350million, it will be possible to increase gas transit capacity by about 30Bn cubic meters of gas p.a. The new infrastructure would be managed on parity principles by 'Gazprom' and 'Naftogaz' - the joint project investors. [The capacity of the proposed Nord Stream Baltic pipeline is of a similar order - but its cost would almost certainly exceed $10Bn..LEvko]

'Naftohaz' press- secretary Valentyn Zemlyansky yesterday stated: "We greet the participation of Russia in the modernization of the GTS of the Ukraine, the form of this participation must be determined by the premiers of two countries".

Director of East European Gas Analysis Mikhail Korchemkin, commenting on the benefits, said, "Since the beginning of the year the consumption of Russian gas in the EU countries has reduced by almost 60% and there is no sense building new gas pipes [Nord stream, South stream..any other stream?]. Far more realistic to invite Gazprom to invest in the modernization of Ukrainian GTS, whilst preserving a low tariff for pumping gas."

YKIMS* - acronym for "you know it makes sense"

Time running out for PR/BYuT coalition and president/premier co-operation

The former US ambassador to Ukraine, Steven Pifer, considers there are four problems which his country could help Ukraine overcome. These are stimulation of the economy in financial crisis conditions, development of energy conservation and reduction of energy dependency on other countries, and lobbying Ukraine's interests on entry into NATO and the EC.

"But none of this will have any effect without a fourth component - development of a joint policy by the government and president of Ukraine.The USA are ready to act as mediator in this process.." says Pifer.

Pifer is correct to identify the harm being done by long-standing president/premier warring in Ukraine, but now Yushchenko's time is fast running out.

Meanwhile PoR and BYuT are still working on 'stitching up' the president by altering the consitution, allowing Tymoshenko to continue leading the government, and electing Viktor Yanukovych as president in parliament. But an article in PoR-leaning 'Segodnya' reckons there may not now be sufficient time for the creation of a 'PR-BYuT' coalition either - a deal must be 'wrapped up' by June at the very latest.

I've loosely translated some portions below:

Rumours about the speedy creation of a PR/BYuT coalition are again emerging, but the probability of success is by no means 100%, even though now both forces are close to agreement. Changes to the constitution, which must be the basis of understanding between Yanukovych and Tymoshenko, have already been agreed.

Having experienced a fall in her ratings, Tymoshenko has made large concessions to 'Regiony' on constitutional questions in order to avoid national presidential elections. Sources in both fractions confirm that voting for the president in the parliament is proposed. In this case the head of state will be Yanukovych, with somewhat increased powers in the comparison with the current president, Tymoshenko remaining premier.
He would be deprived the right to assign governors, but the law courts would be returned under his control - all judges during his first term would be appointed by the President.

Furthermore, besides the heads of the Mministry of Foreign Affairs, National Bank of Ukraine, Ministry of Defense, Security Service, and Attorney General's Office, the Ministry of Internal Affairs would be added to president's remit - i.e., all the 'sylovyky' would be controlled by the president, [i.e. Yanukovych]. BYuT have also foregone their idea of carrying out elections of parliament into two stages.

Various fractions within PoR have different opinions on the proposals. An influential group in the party connected with Rinat Akhmetov and Boris Kolesnikov are not entirely against the association. "If we do not combine, then long years of political and economic chaos await the country," says PoR deputy Volodymyr Sivkovych. BYuT deputies also declare their desire for "uniting for the sake of fighting the crisis". But no-one is confident that such an association will take place.

Both fractions see the main reason for possible failure of PR/BYuT to be fast-approaching presidential elections scheduled for late October. Indeed in order to have time to to change constitution, then it is necessary to accept the first reading of the proposals some time in May. Furthermore, the proposals must be scrutinised by the Constitutional Court by September, and only in September can the constitution be accepted finally - just a month before the presidential elections. So presidential elections would be abolished at the height of an election campaign: too cynical even for Ukrainian politics.

It is hardly likely that Tymshenko and Yanukovych will refuse to participate in the elections so it would be better if they transfer elections to January 17th, which the constitutional court can do. But creation of PR/BYuT could alter the popularity of both of the two political forces amongst voters, therefore to go into coalition without being sure of the cancellation of elections via changes in the constitution is dangerous.

Apart from the distribution of power between its different branches, both PoR and BYuT in their version of the constitution, have attempted to resolve other questions. Even last year non aligned nation status was agreed for Ukraine, closing off any attempt to drag the country in NATO. But article 10 on the official language remains without changes. "Regions" agreed not to change it," said a source in BYuT. "In exchange for this, we promised the real fulfillment of European charter on regional languages, in order to remove the discrimination against the Russian language in the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine, and to give it considerably more rights than it has now," said the source...

So the possibility of "development of a joint policy by the government and president of Ukraine", considered so important by Pifer, which could perhaps occur under a Tymoshenko prime ministership and Yanuk presidency, is not that likely either.

Wednesday update:
'Oboz' reports that during her meeting with PM Putin in Moscow today, Tymoshenko will ask him to "apply pressure on Yanukovych to more actively participate in the organisation of PR/BYuT"

p.s. Details of Pifer's Brookings Insititution paper, "Engaging Ukraine in 2009", here