Thursday, April 17, 2014

F-wiord not uttered by PoR today

The respected 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' newpaper reports Wednesday's fateful PoR EGM thus:

Regionals wants a referendum only on one issue - the Russian language
  
All of the demands of the Regionals can be solved by votes in parliament. A referendum is required only on the issue of [Russian as] a second state language.

Only the status of the Russian language would require a referendum; other amendments to the Constitution insisted upon by deputies of the Party of Regions from the Donetsk region, can be voted on in Parliament, said the secretary of the presidium of the political council of the party, Borys Kolesnikov.

"Only one demand requires a referendum. This is an amendment to the 10th article of the Constitution of Ukraine on official languages. Decentralization of power, the transfer of power to local administrations and liquidation of state administrations do not require a referendum. [A constitutional majority of over] 300 votes [in parliament] would be enough for a decision to be made," explained Kolesnikov to reporters after an emergency meeting of PoR deputies of all levels from the Donetsk region.

A resolution was adopted at this Congress . It was noted that members of the Party of Regions favour of unitary country, fiscal autonomy in the region, and called on protesters in eastern Ukraine to surrender and free up captured buildings.

There was no mention of the F word - Federalisation, which Moscow will be demanding in Geneva tomorrow at the 4-way crisis talks.

A ridiculous situation therefore exists: no major political force in Ukraine [except the Communists who hold only 32 of the 450 seats in parliament] are looking for a Federation solution to Ukraine's crisis. And yet, Russia, whose armed troops are allegedly spearheading aggressive capture of government buildings in Eastern Ukraine will be demanding exactly this on Thursday in Geneva..

These Russian stormtroopers will continue to cause mayhem and destabilise the country until such time they are stopped by lethal force...But right now, Ukraine's demoralised armed forces seem incapable of counteracting these Russian troops and their dubious Ukrainian supporters in any way.

Will Party of Regions and its billionaire sponsors allow themselves to be deemed irrelevant in Ukrainian politics? Or have they done a 'behind-the-scenes' deal with Putin already, giving him carte blanche, and today's EGM was merely a charade?

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

PoR no longer all-powerful in Eastern Ukraine

De facto PoR head, Borys Kolesnikov, says his party is demanding Ukraine remains a unitary state, but will insist on decentralization of authority and budgetary autonomy. The party will be staging an EGM of its deputies on 15th April.

"There will be consolidated position taken up by the PoR organisation at the regional, district and village council level, that the party unequivocally stands for a unitary country, but asks Kyiv to immediately take steps to decentralize authority and fiscal autonomy," said Kolesnikov.

Acting PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk, in broad measure, had agreed such terms with regional leaders on Friday, but the violent events in several towns contained roughly within the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk triangle, have totally swamped any further progress. Russian mass media immediately called Kyiv's proposal dirty lies.

But PoR are losing control over the levers of power in the region too. All senior local government officials, law enforcement officers, judiciary etc. were 100% PoR loyal. Now it seems, they have become fence-sitters.

The separatists causing such mayhem comprise several differing entities. There are professional military and intelligence men from Russia and Ukraine who have efficiently spearheaded the co-ordinated seizure of administrative buildings. There are paid local irregulars, many of them poor, who scrape a living e.g. in unlicensed coal mines, and other assorted malcontents from both sides of the border. For them the current troubles are an heaven-sent opportunity to earn some decent cash.

Then there are many sincere, very angry, disinformed citizens who want to vent their anger for their miserable lot on somebody..However, these people are no longer the people of Party of Regions...Rather they will support separatist leaders like Ihor Tsaryov with whom they share a common world view. Party of Regions, who gripped the eastern oblasts so tightly over many years, have lost control just like the central authorities in Kyiv.

Some citizens in the towns controlled by separatists are getting fed up already as their lives are being disrupted. There have been instances of looting. Mini-buses are being commandeered, and barricades manned by irregulars are hindering free movement. Mobile phone services are being disrupted and are increasingly erratic.The disruption of local administration services, payment of pensions etc. caused by the separatists' actions may quickly generate a backlash from normal citizens in the region who want their lives to return back to normal.

There are Russian flags being flown, but there are also many Donetsk Republic banners and posters too, perhaps indicating that differing groups have differing aims. Massed Russian forces just across the border are waiting for serious violence to trigger an invasion. Uncertainty and irrational motives breed anarchy...

However, there are some grounds to assume the currently greatly disorientated Party of Regions' will regroup and regain some control over events on their own patch.



Saturday, April 12, 2014

Putin's plan for Ukraine

Vadym Denyskenko, a highly-respected Ukrainian journalist and editor, [and Crimea specialist] answers the question everyone wants to know - what is Putin's Plan.

Below is my loose translation of his today's Espreso.tv op ed piece:

Civil War. Putin's Plan

The Kremlin's plan is at minimum - the trashing of the presidential elections by the hands of Ukrainians themselves and forcing an official Kyiv to recognize the legitimacy of the separatists. At maximum it includes a civil War

Kyiv has no control over the Donbass.

The region is not controlled by Akhmetov, or anyone else in Ukraine. Donbass is today again controlled by Yanukovych, or more precisely Russia's GRU [Main Intelligence Directorate] which has been, and continues to be part of Yanukovych's circle. 

Within two weeks they will clean up Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts. Each city council, district council, and then oblast council will make a decision to stage a referendum, on the status of second state language, etc. 

A decision will be made to create, and arm, an army of the SouthEast which will be activated to protect the Russian-speaking population of the SouthEast. A month before the presidential election, Kyiv will  have no control over nearly seven million Ukrainian citizens.

Whether the Russians can conduct a similar operation in other areas of the south-east is an open question, but the likelihood of such a scenario is more than high.

The main objective of the Russian Federation is not clear. The separatists are demanding a referendum on accession to Moscow - but such a referendum is not required by Moscow because it could go against them in all regions except the Luhansk [as indicated by latest OP's  LEvko]. 

Obviously, the Russians are betting on another scenario - on a controlled civil war. The big question is along which line do they want to form a cordon.
They need a local conflict in which right-wing radicals fight with the Russian population. Thus Russia will be able to continue to broadcast this image of events to its own viewers.

The second important question - is Kyiv is ready for such a war? Apparently not. This means only one thing - the legitimacy of government in the capital will be drastically reduced with every seizure of yet another police headquarters building. 

The second task of the Kremlin is to render Kyiv authorities semi-legitimate from the point of view of most Kievans and residents of pro-Ukraine areas; ideally to get Kyiv authorities to resign under the pressure of  "Right sector".

In yesterday's statements by the Russia's Minister of Finance, Siluanov, he specifically expressed the view that Ukraine should be offered money in exchange for recognition of the annexation of the Crimea. Simply put, the Russian's position on the eve of the four party meeting (between Kerry, Ashton, Lavrov, and Deshchitsa)  can be boiled down to this: they are willing to back down, but in Ukraine must recognize the annexation of Crimea, and the EU must abandon sanctions.

Current events in the Donbas indicate Russia is raising the stakes. The EU clearly understands what a nightmare the flow of refugees from a pseudo-civil war (actually a Ukraine-Russia war) at the borders of the EU would be. There is no doubt that if the EU and the U.S. refuse to compromise, the Russians will continue to expand the boundaries of the separatist entities. By extending these formations, they are driving the Ukrainian economy into a dead end. 

Now everything depends on the determination of the Ukrainian government, which at the moment, does not exist.

Thursday, April 10, 2014

Kolomoysky shows the way [Updated]

From Oleksand Chernenko's Facebook:

 "The number of yellow and blue flags in Dnipropetrovsk, on automobiles, buildings, advertisements is impressive.

In closed questionaires support for Ihor Kolomoysky in the city is 77%.."

Kolomoysky was recently appointed head of the Dnipropetrovsk oblast administration.

He is a Ukrainian-Israeli business oligarch of Jewish descent,  one of top two or three richest men in Ukraine, owner of Privat Bank...etc. etc.

Here's a photo of Kolomoysky in a tee shirt. On it is imprinted a seven-branched candlestick that also resembles a Ukrainian trident symbol.

Under is is written 'ZhydoBandera...'

There have been no Crimea, Luhansk, Kharkiv-like disturbances  in his city...

The man is a hero...and has a sense of humour...deserves respect...

Update: 
Read this from 'NYT':
"Mr. Kolomoysky, a Russian speaker who has both Israeli and Ukrainian passports, scoffed at the Kremlin’s pledges to protect Jews, Russian-speakers and other minorities. “We can protect ourselves. We don’t need any protection from Russia,” he said. “There is no fascism here. It does not exist.”
Anti-Semitism is experienced in daily life, he said, but gets no support or encouragement from the state, unlike in Russia, where the security services have tolerated and at times nurtured neo-Nazi nationalist groups with openly anti-Semitic agendas." 

Monday, April 07, 2014

Disturbances in Eastern Ukraine must be sorted at local level [Updated]

The "fireworks thrown by noisy neighbours from the east" are intended to disrupt Ukraine's May 25 presidential elections. Any winner of these elections will certainly be a pro-EU, pro-western vector candidate.

If regional authorities in the country's easternmost oblasts cannot currently prevent demonstrators taking over large administration buildings, how will can they preserve calm at local polling stations and in local electoral commission headquarters?

Powerful local oligarchs must stop playing their dangerous game of remaining inactive to gain maximum leverage with any new president. They must act immediately, utilising their massive resources to stabilise the situation, otherwise the integrity of the country is at grave risk.

There are some reports alleging 'King of Donbas' Rinat Akhmetov may even be covertly supporting the separatists wreaking havoc on the streets of Donetsk.

The OSCE and other European bodies must do their utmost to enable fair, verifiable elections to take place in May.

Seasoned British journalist, suggests in a tweet today that PM David Cameron make an urgent call to number One Hyde Park...

There is good reason to believe that unrest in Donetsk is being conducted by about one thousand people only, some perhaps are 'imports' whilst others paid 'titushky' - not that many for a regional city of almost one million. Support for them amongst the local population is limited and not particularly enthusiastic - the numbers participating in the unrest has not increased significantly in recent days. Apart from disturbances in and around captured civic buildings, life proceeds as normal in the city. The timid response of law enforcement officers adds to an air of collusion and artificiality - confirmed to your blogger by eye-witnesses.

Update - Rinat Akhmetov has gone to the the occupied Oblast Administration Building to meet with separatists, declaring: "Donbas is Ukraine." I wonder what undertakings had to be given in order he enter the fray? Will he be able to keep all the assets, the utility companies, the industrial enterprises, media holdings etc. etc.  he accumulated under Yanukovych? Will his people remain embedded in state oversight committees? And what of Yanukovych Jr's and Serhiy Kurchenko's assets? Who will get first dibs? Co-incidentally Yulia Tymoshenko was in Donetsk today too...but refused to say who she met...