Monday, January 16, 2006

Re: Yulia

LEvko can, of course, speak for himself here on anything he posts. I asked him to co-blog with me because his analysis is solid. And I am looking for others who similarly have a point to make and who can make it persuasively to join our happy band.

It is likely that others who post here will not agree with everything I have to say. That is what happens when people don't share a brain. This means that opinions may differ here on any number of things. From my perspective, so long as that difference is respectful and thought out, it should add to the blog not detract from it. It will allow people who read here to be informed about the issues.

When anyone posts or writes about anything, they stake out a position on that thing. But the validity of that position is a result of how closely that position mirrors what is actually happening. Does what is being said actually correspond to the facts on the ground? That is the test for any assertion that is made anywhere, whether it be the pages of the New York Times, the halls of the Pentagon and the White House, the boardrooms of the Fortune 500 or the pages of this humble blog. If it does not reflect what is actually happening on the ground, it should be disregarded regardless of where it came from. And a focus on the brand or on academic credentials or on the fact that a trendsetter in business or anywhere else said it, are not substitutes for good analysis though they are always used precisely for that. Good analysis is good analysis wherever it comes from and from whomever it comes.

But some things cannot be known for certain when they are argued. That is one reason to have all the sides presented on an issue and that those sides be reasoned out and presented the best they possibly can be. The people themselves can then decide. (And they may even leave a comment when they do. We will post those too.)

My views on Yulia are clear to anyone who has been reading this blog for anything over a couple of days. I think she was a disaster here and Yuschenko should have pulled the trigger on her a lot sooner than he did. But maybe using the word "disaster" to describe her government is too much. It leaves not many other words to describe what might happen with a Yanukovych back in power. This is the point I made in my last post on the subject. It might be the worst case, but the risk of that worst case is real.

Politics in a democracy is really the science of the possible. Right now, Yanukovych is ascendant. Yuschenko hasn't gotten much movement at all. Any support for Yulia could cut into support for Yanukovych especially because of her populist appeal. And that would be a good thing. Some sort of rapprochement between Tymoshneko and Yuschenko, though not ideal in terms of what I would absolutely prefer, is inevitable and is to be preferred under the current circumstances, if the good of the country is taken into account at all. The point is that dealing with Tymoshenko is a lot better than having to deal with a Yanukovych in power. Both Yuschenko and Tymoshenko will follow the rules. Yanukovych would not.

The "come, let us reason together" of the Bible seems like good advice. We'll try to do that here.


Anonymous said...

My deepest apologies - I should have paid closer attention and realized that the post which I commented on was not authored by you, but by LEvko. The view expressed seemed to be at variant with yours and yes, Yulia would be better than Yanukovych in power. Excuse my confusion, regarding authorship. I think it is a great idea, to have multiple authors. And no, I as a single reader do not expect in any way shape or form, that the views expressed should stringently be in line with my own. That would be ridiculous. It is just that as a long time reader of your blog, I was thrown by the shift in voice and its spirit. As I wrote, it is mea culpa, because I should have paid closer attention. Again, sorry.

Anonymous said...

"Any support for Yulia could cut into support for Yanukovych especially because of her populist appeal."
I don't know if this is indicated in the polls. Correct me if I am wrong (would not be the first time) - Yanukovych's numbers have remained relatively steady from 04 to now and it is expected that his supporters will vote for his bloc in March. While the people who voted for Yushchenko are now divided between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko with some undecided or departed to other parties. I do not believe that Tymoshenko has gotten converts from Yanukovych's bloc. Which is why I am all for "rapprochement between Tymoshneko and Yuschenko" but I don't think it will happen.

Scott W. Clark said...

To anonymous above:

No apologies necessary. Just glad to have you around to help keep us on our toes.

Scott W. Clark said...

To anonymous below:

I don't think anyone knows really. Yuschenko's support has been solid. Yanu though got some sort of bump from the gas crisis it looks like. If those are bread and butter voters, Yulia might be able to peal them off. At the least it would be a good thing to have her as an attack dog.

But we'll see.

Anonymous said...

There is a recent poll showing that Yush, Tymo and Yanok only account for 50% - lots of wiggle room here.