Monday, July 16, 2007

PoR's internal divisions part 2

More from the 'Kommentarii' article on probs in PoR. For first part, see previous posting.

"Last year Viktor Fedorovych had a free hand in forming the KabMin. The only totally Akhmetov-loyal person selected to the KabMin at that time was Vasyl Dzarty. Many other positions were filled by ex-Kuchmistas like Dmytro Tabachnyk, Anatoliy Tolstoukhov, Oleksandr Lavrynovych, Mykhaylo Papiyev, Volodymyr Yatsuba, Oleksandr Kuz'muk and so on. Yanukovych also adopted Serhiy Levochkin from Volodymyr Lytvyn's team [as head of PM's secretariat]. He promised these guys not only a long career in structures of executive authority, but also good places in the PoR election list in the event of political 'complications'. Such a moment, caused by the dissolution of the Supreme Rada, has arrived, but now it is difficult for Viktor F. Yanukovych to deliver. These men now have three choices: to pay for their places, become financially dependent on Rinat A., or look elsewhere.

Another person who cannot sleep easy is Deputy PM Mykola Azarov. Akhmetov's associates consider him old-fashioned in outlook, and his policies are frequently misunderstood in 'New Donetsk'. There are plans therefore to replace Azarov with more "pro-European" financial 'specialist'. Azarov, feeling the heat, has found himself an ally - Oleksander Moroz. They both recently attempted to push through, at least partially, a new act on state purchases [and the State Tender Chamber], after the third Presidential ukaz on dissolution of the Supreme Rada, but their attempt failed. No other groups inside PoR represent a threat to Ahmetov. The 'old guard', even though they include Azarov, have already understood which way the wind is blowing, and have turned against Azarov too. An example of this is the unexpected criticism by Efim Zvyagilsky of Azarov's policies which affect Donetsk. The 'old boys' have now for a long time reconciled themselves to a back-seat role in the party, and will put up with any whims of the 'young turks' as long as they do not hinder the development of their own businesses. It is unlikely that Andriy Kluyev will provide Azarov with protection either.

According to some sources, Akhmetov's ideas have even found resonance with president Yushchenko, and they have recently began to meet suspiciously often. It may be that the billionaire is seriously deliberating onto whether to place a strategic bet on Viktor Andreyevych for a second presidential term. At present he has only two serious competitors for the 2009 elections - Yanukovych and Tymoshenko. If the first, with the help of Rinat, could be dumped already this year, only one problem - named Yulia Volodymyrivna will remain. And it may be possible to concentrate on this in the remaining years of the presidency."

LEvko thinks Yanukovych is the most popular politician in Ukraine, and PoR will stick with him to the elections..his fate will be decided by the result. But he must be feeling bad. Things were going well for him until April 2nd, and he would have justifiably felt confident of remaining in the PM's chair for another four years. Now, all this speculation about his future..


elmer said...

All of this STINKS to high heaven like old-time sovok politics.

It is a shark tank.

I hope the sharks go into a feeding frenzy and eat each other.

Looks like that's what they are starting to do.

UkraineToday said...

Great article and an interesting assessment. Place your bets on both red and black as the roulette wheels spins is always a sure way to win but in the end you limit your payouts but you do stay in the game a little longer.

Yes I think if Yushchenko's coup is to succeed and there is a realignment in the political fortunes, there has to be more to it then just announcing an election and trying again.

You do not go to such trouble even to the extent of breaching the constitution and riding rough shod over Ukraine's Constitutional Court unless you have a sure fire plan or strategy. Just spinning again is not a guarantee that the ball will land on the numbers you have placed your bets on.

Ambition and making sure your in a favourable position is always party of the strategy in any political game.

The big sleeping question still remains the ability for Our Ukraine to work with Yulia Tymoschenko.

If you recall the main reason that Our Ukraine did not sign on the dotted line after the last election was that they were divided in offering support for Yulia to become PM and they hoped that they could reach an agreement and accommodation with Party of Regions. As it turned out the Socialist Party called it a day and cut a deal to form a governing coalition before Our Ukraine.

It was and is the division in Our Ukraine that has always driven the ball from one court to the other.

Allegations of bribery should not just be focused on the party offering the bribes but more so on those that are offering for sale there support.

One thing Our Ukraine has kept quite about is who will be there preferred candidate for PM should Our Ukraine tip Bloc Yulia at the post? And why are they keeping it a secret. we know that the leader of the Our Ukraine election bloc is not a candidate just who is?