Sunday, March 30, 2008

NATO will do nothing?

"It seems to me that during the Bucharest summit Ukraine will not receive an invitation on the action plan to obtain NATO membership. Why? Because Ukrainian politicians are not convinced that Ukraine really wants to be a member of NATO; but if there is agreement between Ukrainian political forces , I think that an invitation on the action plan may take place next year during the NATO summit in Washington." - Marcin Wojcechowski - "Gazeta Wyborcza" journalist [Poland] in BBC Ukrainian Service interview.

This from an excellent piece of analysis in the respected 'Oxford Analytica': "While Croatia, Macedonia and Albania can expect to receive invitations next week to join NATO, this is less likely for Russia's neighbours Georgia and Ukraine.

Washington has been actively promoting Ukrainian and Georgian membership ahead of the summit, arguing that this would safeguard democracy in these countries and that they would make contributions to collective defence.

The United States might also hope that Ukraine and Georgia would offer diplomatic support to its initiatives, allow greater flexibility for US troop deployments and even clandestine operations.

West Europeans are much less enthusiastic, fearing that the countries' inclusion would further alienate and antagonise Russia. They also doubt that these two countries can make a significant contribution to collective defence and security: Ukraine's and Georgia's unresolved conflicts with neighbouring countries would risk making NATO a party in these conflicts rather than an outside mediator.

Finally, West Europeans believe that enlargement would undermine efforts to improve NATO's military effectiveness. Since a membership invitation for Ukraine and Georgia at this week's summit would only increase internal and external threats to NATO cohesion, it is unlikely to be offered..."

Many years ago, when I was learning to drive, if an uncertain situation was developing on the road in front of us, or if a police car was behind us, my driving instructor would shout in my ear, "Do nothing!"

No comments: