Sunday, August 17, 2008

Russian Black Sea Fleet hit?

Maybe I was a bit hard on the Georgian navy in a previous posting.

'Segodnya' reports that Russian ships are not returning to their base in Crimea right now because of damage suffered when engaging Georgian warships. In particular, the flagship missile cruiser 'Moskva', one of the RFBSF's capital ships, had been hit by Georgian shore artillery.

An internet poll on the widely read Russian language 'Segodnya' website asks readers what conclusions should Ukraine draw from the Ossetian-Georgian-Russian conflict.

So far the replies are as follows: Join NATO as quickly as possible - about 30%; secure friendship and integration with Russia - 55%; strengthen its neutrality and keep away from all military-political unions - 15%. LEvko thinks the second option was loaded. Interesting, nevertheless.

This prescient UK Defence Academy paper entitled 'Georgia and Russia - A Further Deterioration in Relations' published just a month ago and accessible here may be of interest:

A brief quote:

"Conjecture and Exploitation

In view of the uneasy, apprehensive and stressful relationship which the smaller state has with its much larger and more powerful neighbour to the north, it is not surprising that suspicion, speculation and conjecture remain high in Georgia aboutRussia’s future intentions with regard to the unrecognised Abkhaz republic and to Georgian aspirations to join NATO. There can be little doubt that the bullying of Georgia will continue. Harassment and manipulation with a view to provoking a hasty, hot-tempered overreaction would of course be a well-tried stratagem."


Anonymous said...

I'm not sure I understand the mentality in Ukraine. A known bully, with brutal tendencies, and an imperialist chauvinistically haughty and superior attitude to Ukraine and everything non-Russia ("little Russians"; Poland, according to Russia, is a little child who has committed the unpardonable sin of doing something that roosha does not want) is clearly posturing to come into Ukraine, yet again, and make it subservient - to maskva.

In such a situation, most people with common sense would opt to

1) fight the bully, so the bully can't beat me up again

2) find some friends to help fight the bully, so the bully can't beat me up again.

What's the reaction in Ukraine?

"Here, bully, let me give you a club and I'll stand here or, if you prefer, lay down for you, while you beat me up - yet again."

Now, lest anyone start with the smarmy mealy-mouthed comments about "common history and culture," etc., let's just forget about it.

Look at rooshan government today, and the brutal suppression of media, of people's rights, and the poverty - well, except for Putin and a privileged few in Maskva. And Londongrad, where rooshan oligarchs also have mansions.

And tell me, on that basis, why
any Ukrainian would want to subject himself or herself to rooshan rule, knowing that the "common history and culture" consists of the BRUTALITY of rooshan rule.

Anonymous said...

Violence begets violence.

Turn the other Cheek the lord said...

The conflict was created as a direct, be it over the top, response to a conflict in the making, by Georgia's Autocratic President.

Take a leaf out of India's Mahatma Gandi's struggle for Independence and listen to the wisdom of the Dalia Lama.