Sunday, January 17, 2010

Red faces for pollsters?

Ukrainian media, e.g. U.P. are now posting the results of 4 exit polls taken during today's first round presidential elections.

Three of the exit polls commisioned by TV companies or TV programmes show Viktor Yanukovych about 10 points ahead of his nearest rival Yulia Tymoshenko. The other one, the National Exit Poll, gives Yanukovych about a 4 points lead. [More about the NEP here ]

The NEP claim they are the most trustworthy.

In most countries that I have visited over the years, if you ask a local about the location of a certain place, or for information on transport or local events etc. most people are only too happy to help. In Ukraine, maybe I've been unlucky, maybe it's just me, but the response has often been: "Why do you want to know?" or, "Do you have a smoke?"

My guess is that more voters in Ukraine will be more reluctant to respond at all, or if they do, to respond so as give him the questioner the answer that he is looking for, than in other countries. In other words the above polls should all be treated with caution...just a bit of fun, as they say.

If the three polls mentioned above prove to be inaccurate, this be used by Tymoshenko as evidence to illustrate how her opponent's oligarch supporters, owners of the TV channels, manipulate the mass media in Ukraine.

We will see...somebody is going to finish up with a red face..


elmer said...

38% of the votes counted

Yanuk - 36.88%

Tymo - 24.99%

The gap seems to be getting smaller

UkrToday said...

At just overt 50.36% of the polling places counted: (11021832 votes)

Click here to view virtual electoral map (Flash)

Research and Branding looks like being the winner of the Exit Polls.

UkrToday said...

Candidate, 50% Counted
Viktor Yanukovych, 36.75%
Yulia Tymoshenko, 24.47%
Serhiy Tihipko, 13.05%
Arseniy Yatsenyuk, 6.79%
Viktor Yushchenko, 4.85%
Petro Symonenko, 3.67%
Volodymyr Lytvyn, 2.43%
Oleh Tyahnybok, 1.30%
Anatoliy Hrytsenko, 1.17%
Inna Bohoslovska, 0.43%
Oleksandr Moroz, 0.42%
Yuriy Kostenko, 0.22%
Liudmyla Suprun, 0.19%
Vasyl Protyvsikh, 0.17%
Oleksandr Pabat, 0.14%
Serhiy Ratushnyak, 0.13%
Mykhailo Brodskiy, 0.06%
Oleh Riabokon, 0.03%
Against all, 2.23%

Virtual Electoral Map

Online Editor said...

Well the egg is on on the 4% Yanukovych lead. the TV station being the most accurate. Those associated with Western agencies and the Office of the president the least accurate.

Candidate 100% Counted
Viktor Yanukovych 35.32%
Yulia Tymoshenko 25.05%
Serhiy Tihipko 13.06%
Arseniy Yatsenyuk 6.95%
Viktor Yushchenko 5.45%
Petro Symonenko 3.55%
Volodymyr Lytvyn 2.35%
Oleh Tyahnybok 1.43%
Anatoliy Hrytsenko 1.20%
Inna Bohoslovska 0.41%
Oleksandr Moroz 0.38%
Yuriy Kostenko 0.22%
Liudmyla Suprun 0.19%
Vasyl Protyvsikh 0.16%
Oleksandr Pabat 0.14%
Serhiy Ratushnyak 0.12%
Mykhailo Brodskiy 0.60%
Oleh Riabokon 0.03%
Against all 2.20%