I can recommend this OSW article on the recent reshuffles in the Ukrainian government as prelude to Autumn's parliamentary elections in the country.
However, the article claims that for Andriy Klyuvev, who was recently demoted[?] from deputy PM to Secretary to the post of the National Security and Defence Council, [See previous F.N. blog on this topic], the "main task at the NSDC will be to prepare the Party of Regions for the elections this autumn, which proves that he is still trusted by Viktor Yanukovych."
In Friday night's big TV interview, Yanukovych said that Klyuyev will not be heading the Party of Regions' election headquarters even though he was one of the main architects of this political project.
The OSW article claims "A parallel goal for President Yanukovych is to contribute to the growing significance of ‘the Family’ and at the same time to preserve a certain balance of influences of individual oligarch groupings within his inner circle and to build his position as an arbiter between them. The oligarchs are too strong for the president to be able to rule without giving due respect to their interests. On the other hand, allowing one of the oligarch groups to gain a clear advantage over the other poses the risk of weakening the president’s position.." and the emergence of conflicts.."
The weakening of Klyuyev and 'confederation of Donetsk clans' in favour of 'the Family' and the RosUkrEnergo lobby could turn out to be a major miscalculation.
In another 'L.B.' article, Vitaliy Pornikov also discusses the recent reshuffle, but he concludes: "To overcome these [economic] problems, redistribution [of power] amongst the clans is not what is required. Nor is the victory of one group over another. And not even the appearance of a decorative professional [like Poroshenko] in the government. Even a supra-party government of professionals will not now save the country.
To overcome the problems, a new government is required, one that is not only merely competent, but one that has gained trust. A government that will be trusted both inside the country, in the West and in the East.
Another excellent post. Thank you.
ReplyDeleteWhat this post does highlight is the need for major Constitutional reform. Whilst there is discussion and proposals afoot for Constitutional reform, including the proposal to elect the president by a constitutional majority of the parliament.
The suggestion that it is the role of the NSDC to prepare the Party of Regions for the elections this year is of some concern. It is not the role of the office of the President of the security Counil to be engaged in partisan politics. in fact Yanukovych under Ukraine's constitution should not hold any position or authority in any organization. (article 103)
The most important question that needs to be addressed is the proposal for Ukraine to remove presidential power and authority and adopt a full Parliamentray model of government as recommended by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe and the Eunice Comission.
This must be done in conjunction with proposals to have the President elected by a Two-thirds Parliamenatry majority.