Monday, February 20, 2012

Dissapointed Klyuyev's role may be pivotal at election time

President Yanukovych's transfer of one of his closest PoR colleagues, 'partner in crime', Andriy Klyuyev, from deputy PM to Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council, has caused much speculation. Yulia Mostova in 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' suggests Klyuyev's first reaction would have been that of dissapointment and dismay. He was one of the favourites to step into PM Mykola Azarov' shoes when he eventually goes, and possibly may have been promised the top cabinet job by 'el presidente' himself in the past.

Mostova suggests that the president is counting on the 'demoted' Klyuyev to 'prove himself' and create an impact in the oncoming parliamentary election campaign, which in any case is predicted to be very tough and dirty. The reward would be high.

Klyuev is a very bright boy - has cordial contacts, even with leaders of the opposition. He is well thought of in Europe - he had done good work behind the scenes preparing the as-yet-uninitalled EU/Ukraine Association Agreement, so his transfer to the NSDC was a puzzlement to his EU interlocutors.

'Tyzhden' speculates in an unpublished article [see previous blog] that if the results of the parliamentary elections scheduled this Autumn are poor for the ruling authorities, leading oligarchs will propose the president stands down in the 2015 presidential elections, and under a guarantee of immunity, nominates another candidate. [Andriy Klyuyev and his brother also regularly figure in lists of wealthiest Ukrainians.]

Yanukovych may well feel the only sure guarantee of avoiding any trouble would be to remain in power - hence his determined efforts to ensure the Ministry of Internal Affairs [i.e. police], Ministry of Defence, and Security Service of Ukraine are headed by firm loyalists. Klyuyev and the NSDC will be pivotal if the president postpones the elections and declares some kind of martial law situation, .

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