Thursday, July 04, 2013

More cheap promises from Yanuk

Following today's Visegrad Group heads of state meeting in Poland which was also attended by president Yanukovych,  the Polish president's official site reports:

"We are pleased to note that President Yanukovych mentioned efforts to find a resolution to this problem [of  Tymoshenko imprisonment] in keeping with Ukrainian laws, in other words either under current laws or by way of an amendment of Ukrainian law by parliament. We connect very far-reaching hopes [i.e. for success of the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius] with this statement", declared the Polish head of state.

Yanukovych assured that his country intended to meet all the conditions and announced the introduction of all necessary legislation at latest by September."

F.N.'s comment: Yanukovych will delay any possible release of Tymoshenko for just as long as he can. Some of his advisers think there is a chance the Association Agreement will be signed even if she is still in prison, as long they made undertakings 'to release her just as soon as Ukrainian legislation permits..'

Others warn the president that if he lets Tymoshenko out of prison for medical treatment abroad right now, the Europeans will then immediately press for further concessions, e.g. greater reform of election law. Currently, Yanukovych can fix the election rules in such a way as to provide the greatest chance of success in the 2015 presidential elections. [Note: Manipulation of electoral rules - change to a 50-50 constituency-party list system gave PoR a ruling majority together with their Communist allies, even though the three remaining opposition parties gained a greater percentage share of  votes cast.]

But most importantly, In Yanuk's eyes, the release of Tymoshenko will harm the chances of him remaining in power after 2015...this is why she was locked up in the first place. The logic remains unchanged.

Yanuk has been making cheap promises to European heads of state for the best part of two years now.... he does not negotiate in good can he be taken seriously? He cannot..

Professor David Marples is quite correct - "there is no reason to question the belief that the detention of Tymoshenko is contrived and politically motivated.... her release should be made the sine qua non for the signing of the association agreement in November."

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