Saturday, June 28, 2014

How events will pan out in Eastern Ukraine

Respected commentator and journalist, Vadym Densysenko, explains the dangers for Ukraine in continuing the current ceasefire.

Here is a summary of the points he makes:

President Poroshenko, following the signing of the Association Agreement document with the EU, is under great pressure both from the EU and from Russia, to 'freeze' the conflict and maintain the current ceasefire.

Russia needs time to create state-like institutions, banking, law enforcement agencies, civil servants structures etc. for its Novorossiya project for Eastern Ukraine. Denysenko says that Oleh Tsaryov [photo below] has now been earmarked to lead this project. Unlike the current leader of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic leader Aleksander Boroday, at least Tsaryov can claim to be Ukrainian. He will be totally loyal to the Russian leadership, and will scrupulously follow their instructions.

Introduction of Russian/EU monitors will help freeze the conflict further. Opinion in the rest of Ukraine to jettison Donbas region could grow, particularly if 'stimulated' by organised anti-war protests etc. Deterioration in the country's economy could increase these sentiments further.

But, Denisenko concludes, right now, Putin need a period of 'peace' to help legitimise Tsaryov, and permit roots of the Novorossiya project to take hold.

Your blogger wonders what do the elites, the businessmen and local officials, that have run Donbas with such a firm grip for almost two decades think about all of this? How did they permit everything to slip out out hand? They surely will lose out in any new set-up. Their cosy and corrupt money-making  schemes will surely be seriously messed up. And as for being bossed about by Tsaryov, aka 'Neanderthal' by his parliamentary colleagues, hmmm

And the residents in the two easternmost Ukrainian oblasts? What kind of future can they expect in a limbo 'Transdnistria- type' state? Pretty bleak I would guess.

p.s Good graphic representation of who's who in the DPR here 

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