Some sensible ideas

A possible solution of the the sticky problem of forming a workable coalition in the VR could lie in sub-divisions of the main political parties somehow co-operating on important matters of state.

As Andriy Hromish concludes in an interesting piece in 'Kyiv Weekly' [I've paraphrased it a bit]:

Today Ukrainian society strongly associates the president and the premier with particular political colours. Ukrainians of all colours perceive a broad coalition as a betrayal of interests of both the orange and white-and-blue camps. So, the formation of a coalition of factions of different political camps could break this stereotype and safeguard Ukraine from any major tremors in society.

An article in 'Ekonomicheskye Izvestiya' suggests factions exist in PoR who maybe could go along with this kind of arrangement. I've translated some bits:

Akhmetov and Yanukovych propose their services
A fight is progressing for a 'gold share' for Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yushchenko between Rinat Akhmetov's wing and Viktor Yanukovych's wing of Party of Regions. A source in the pres's secretariat told E-Izvestiya: "Yushchenko absolutely consciously relates to the fact that 228 votes is too few for an effective coalition".

The source said that, in the opinion of the President, for the solution of the major problems e.g. the new constitution, regulating relations between the branches of goverment, between government and opposition, the imperative mandate, the cancellation of the parliamentary immunity and privileges etc. it is not absolutely necessary to have a formal coalition.

"In this situation Yushchenko is counting on the support of the moderate wing of PoR, particularly in the person or Rinat Akhmetov and his team. But negotiations between them are not all smooth - Akhmetov has stringent demands. The one thing that unites them is their striving for stability at different levels of authority," emphasized the source.

"The President is attempting to create such conditions in the rada that even with a limited coalition, legislative work can be accomplished in a normal stable manner."

Two days ago premier Viktor Yanukovych stated that in the new rada it would not possible to create the one-color coalition: "We will make efforts in order to unite Ukraine so that the people can live in stable conditions, and the authorities can work effectively".

Another source in the secretariat, said, "The question remains open: does Yanukovych oppose the moderate wing of PoR or not? In this respect Yanukovych it fighting for his place in PoR. But the President is thus far distrustful and is suspiciously disposed to the present premier."

According to the source, Yushchenko is also looking for votes, particularly on key issues, amongst deputies in Lytvyn's bloc: "The ex-speaker [Lytvyn] does not want formally to enter into any coalition. Indeed Lytvyn understands that he will be a junior partner among the others and that his opinion, will rarely be decisive. This does not correspond to the ambitions of Lytvyn, but he is ready for pragmatic collaboration if necessary."

Yanukovych, in the opinion of the source, does not believe the promises of the head of state and leaders of BYuT and NUNS to create acceptable conditions for the opposition: "The doubts of premier are understandable - earlier there was no talk of such conditions, and thus far they do not exist. This is one of the themes of his personal negotiations with the President: the opposition must become a reliable tool of control from the first days of work of the 6th convocation of the VR."

PoR spokesman Vasyl Kiselev refutes that there are different groups of influence in his party: Several of our leaders have made specific efforts to try and find common language with our opponents. Akhmetov and Bogatyryova went to see the President. But not once did Bohatyryovva go to see the President or Baloha without Yanukovych's knowledge."

Also in Ukrainian here

Seems that the main players are approaching the problem of forming a workable parliament in a mature and sensible manner. Whether anything comes of their efforts remains to be seen.

p.s. In the meantime the law courts have to sort out challenges to the election results from the Socialists, the Communist party and from another minor party, before the results of the elections can be officially declared.

It looks suspiciously as if all these legal submissions had a single source - the seriously creepy Serhiy Kivalov - one of the main orange revolution election fraudsters, now a PoR deputy.

Details of Kyiv land grab revealed

Check out this story from the recently much improved 'Kyiv Post' before it goes to subs. only. I've put it into my blog to illustrate again that there are no angels in Ukrainian politics. This story will 'have legs'..

Also check out excellent piece on the latest gas crisis, also from 'K.P.'

What happens next?

On Monday evening BYuT and NUNS signed a declaration of intent to work together as a ruling coalition in the VR, having gained 228 seats.

Their relationship has to be formalized at the first session of the new, sixth convocation, of the VR. The Central Election Commission has completed its tasks on time, but the date of this first plenary session of parliament has not yet been determined by a special preparatory group comprising representatives from each fraction entering the new VR. The group sets the agenda for that day, as well as the appointing a temporary presidium, sorting out the seating arrangements etc.

According to the most optimistic forecasts this session will not take place earlier than the last few days of this month.

Much can change in that time. "Regionaly" could regroup, and try a new tack in order to avoid going into opposition. Or the newly-formed democratic coalition could fall out over cabinet seats or other details.

According to Taras Chornovil, one of PoR's 'mouthpieces', Regiony may even be prepared to sacrifice Yanukovych and force him to 'fall on his microphone' in exchange for a broad coalition.

And Yushchenko today appointed a Lytvynite to head the Mykolayiv oblast state administration [a little sweetener, on account maybe?]

Lytvyn's bloc, which gained 20 seats in the new VR, will not even discuss who they will support for PM until a majority coalition is formally assembled in the new VR. If this coalition has an orange hue, then their bloc will consider this question at that time, said one of Lytvyn's boys.

A former British PM once said, "A week is a long time in politics."

'Segodnya' speculates PoR may block the functioning of the new VR, preventing any voting on cabinet posts. They are particularly annoyed the oranges will attempt to reverse the law on the Cabinet of Ministers that reduced presidential powers, which BYuT had supported earlier this year.

And if Yushchenko has second thoughts on a Tymoshenko premiership at any time, he has only has to whisper in the ear of a few NU deputies to press the 'Against' button..

Bandera statue

Last weekend a statue of Ukrainian nationalist leader Stepan Bandera was unveiled in Lviv.

Rather embarrassingly, some observers say the statue resembles those of Lenin, erected in many Ukrainian cities in the latter half of the last century. There are particularly close similarities to the one constructed in the typical social realism style, that still stands in downtown Kyiv [see photo].

The Lviv newspaper 'Vysokyi Zamok' points out the similar postures - arm on lapel, coat caught in the breeze, the purposeful revolutionary stride with left foot forward..Oh dear..

LEvko says Bandera was not politician or a public figure, rather the head of an underground national liberation organization. Does the statue portray this?

Fragile BYuT-NUNS coalition formed

Tonight, in the offices of the presidential secretariat, the leaders of BYuT and NUNS signed a statement on their intent to form a coalition in the newly elected VR.

The 'Donbass' newspaper, in its report, includes this:

"So the working format of [BYuT-NUNS] coalition has been revealed. But Volodymyr Lytvyn's silence is causing the potential partners to be nervous. Several times during recent days they have made clear hints [that they would like him on board too] but Lytvyn has persistently failed to react.

Without him, their [BYuT-NUNS] coalition appears very risky - the absence of just three deputies means they cannot carry a motion in the VR. And if Yuriy Yekhanurov, or any other three deputies refuse to vote for Tymoshenko's premiership - everything will collapse. So the process of negotiation has entered a new phase - more intense and quick. That the President did not invite representatives PoR and CPU to today's encounter shows what kind of coalition he wants to see. But no one knows what the result will be."

BYuT-NUNS have gained 228 seats in the 450 seat parliament. Lytvyn's bloc gained 20 seats. PoR and Communists together gained 202 seats.

Without Lytvyn the wheels will drop off very quickly..Maybe that's why PoR are playing it cool too..

Sylovyky to be under Pres's control in orange coalition

BYuT and NUNS have not yet submitted their coalition agreement to the president, but should do so Monday or Tuesday.

Whether the Orange BYuT-NUNS coalition will garner 226+ votes required in the newly-assembled VR is a different matter.

However, is seems they have now managed to 'divvy up' the ministers chairs and 'spheres of responsibility'.

The proposals will make grim reading to many. BYuT will get the economic and fuel and energy portfolios, whilst the 'sylovyky' organs have been 'bagsied' [called dibs] by Yushchenko and NUNS.

At the moment Lytvyn and his boys seem to be out of the equation entirely, but it looks as if the vice PM responsible for fuel and energy may be Vitaliy Hayduk, a wise choice.

By retaining control of the 'sylovyky' Yushchenko can be sure no one will be 'sniffing around' suspect deals involving him and his closest circle, or deals he may have made with the Kuchmistas during the orange revolution. The primary reason for Yushchenko sacking PM Tymoshenko in September 2005 was SBU head Oleksandr Turchynov's investigations into RosUkrEnergo and its links to the president's closest confidantes. Turchynov is probably Tymoshenko closest partner. A reminder of what this was about here.

I also recommend an article by Tetyana Chornovil [in Ukr] from 'Obozrevatel' about Viktor Pinchuk, former president Kuchma's son in law, and his 115 hectare estate - a former rehab and convalescence complex which was acquired by the most dubious of methods. He has even managed to wangle a no-fly zone over it, something even the president does not have over his 'pile'. The no-fly zone also covers Pinchuk's neigbours the Klyuyevs, and the Kolomoyskis.

After the O.R. when Tymoshenko was PM, she and Minister of the Interior at that time Yuriy Lutsenko tried to get to the bottom of how this estate came into Pinchuk's hands, but failed, probably because the alleged immunity granted to Kuchma by Yushchenko also covered his close family.

Pinchuk, one of Ukraine's richest men, has now morphed into global philantropist, in the words of the song "friend of stars, presidents and the pope in Rome." More on the great man from his own foundation site here . His family tie up with Kuchma does not merit a mention - obviously completely insignificant in the growth of his business empire.

Tatyana Chornovil, who during her investigations was seriously 'leant on' and threatened by Pinchuk's security goons, ends her article: "Interestingly, when on the second day after the elections Yushchenko made his baffling declaration on the necessity of creating a broad coalition, there were boisterous celebrations at Pinchuk's estate. On that day nearly all political leaders were disorientated, angry and troubled, but at the Pinchuk's and Kuchma's there were salutes.
I'll bet there were...

President double-dealing as usual

Here's some interesting speculation from 'Gazeta po Kiyevski':

On 8th October the president met the leaders of the parties that will enter the new parliament and gave them five days to sort out a coalition, submit a candidate for prime minister, and a program of action for the future KabMin.

Public negotiations between NUNS and BYuT (and behind-the-scenes negotiations between NUNS and PoR) are far from complete. The main stumbling block is no one wants to give up the PM's chair, or satisfy the president's increasing appetite - he now wants to assign the minister of the interior too.

BYuT and NUNS keep saying they have almost completed their arrangements...but not quite. Sticking points seem to be program details, including changing laws on the KabMin. For Yushchenko these laws presents a significant danger because they considerably truncate his authority and increase the authority of potential premier Tymoshenko.

'GpoK' claims the president's reaction to this week's brief standoff with Gazprom/Kremlin on the $2Bn 'gas debt' has been half-hearted, and suggests an explanation for this.

While one part of NUNS have been occupied with public negotiations involving Yuriy Lutsenko and Vyacheslav Kirilenko and BYuT, conversations have been taking place at the president's secretariat where Viktor Baloga has met representatives of PoR, in particular Andriy Klyuev,and even Rinat Akhmetov. [Sounds familiar?]

There has been little reaction from President Yushchenko to the signing by Minister of Fuel and Energy (and future PoR deputy) Yuriy Boyko of a mysterious agreement on the liquidation of the "gas debt". He may not have even seen details of the agreement.

Today Yushchenko sent Yanukovych a letter criticizing the projected budget for 2008, but did not point out Minister of Finance Mykola Azarov's increases in benefits for deputies and high ranking state officials.

The reasons for the president's attitude may be that it just wouldn't look right for him to criticize the Party of Regions whilst behind-the-scenes negotiations with them are taking place, and then possibly even going into coalition with the same people shortly afterwards.

Gas - a peculiar business..

Last week Gazprom publicly warned Ukraine that it would cut gas supplies to the country if Ukraine failed to pay its $1.3 billion debt in October 2007 and also notified its European partners of the problem.

Ukraine’s Deputy Fuel and Energy Minister Vadim Chuprun noted that the debt in question was a debt owed to Gazprom by corporations, and not by the Ukrainian government at all. This was followed by a National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine spokesman claiming they did not understand what debt Gazprom was talking about. “There should be no debts based on the current scheme of agreements and contractual relations,” said Yuri Prodan, Deputy Secretary of the NSDC.

And yet, as FT reported today, following Yanukovych's visit to Moscow, agreement has been reached and Ukraine will repay Gazprom in cash and gas after all. According to the FT, Russian prime minister Viktor Zubkov claimed the debt had risen by early October to $2bn, although RosEkrEnergo, monopoly supplier of gas to Ukraine, reckons its overdue debt to Gazprom is only $929m.

Yanukovych was quoted as saying cryptically : “It [the debt] doesn’t exist as such but we have created a mechanism that will allow us to settle the issue,” in response to Zubkov.

EDM has made an excellent attempt to explain of what is going on, but these huge discrepancies and the almost instant agreement are baffling, to say the least.

Now today Fuel and Energy Minister Yuriy Boyko declared that the Ukrainian debt of $1.3bn was all "provoked by the Ukrainian opposition", and explained that according to the latest agreement 4bn cubic metres of gas in underground storage facilities will be sold to UkrGazEnergo at a previous price, as part of the settlement. This gas was earmarked for re-export to Europe and should not be used on the internal market of Ukraine. The surplus arose as a result of an abnormally warm winter when demand to Europe was low, he added.

LEvko thinks if this 4bn cubic metres was unused stock from last winter, then it either belongs to the supplier or the end user, but not to the transit country - Ukraine. Because Ukraine's imported gas comes from just one supplier, the intermediary company RosUkrEnergo at a a price of about half of what other European customers pay, it is contractually not permitted to re-export gas.

This standoff and its apparent resolution reveal a continuing absence of transparency in the gas trade between Russia, Ukraine and the central Asian countries. Everyone knows intermediaries are often used in business to enable suppliers and consumers to collude in skimming and 'getting the numbers all muddled up'. Tymoshenko has warned many times that she intends to eliminate them if she were to become PM again...

Parties going through well-practiced motions

Yushchenko today called together the leaders of the parties entering the newly elected VR and told them they have five days to cobble together a workable ruling coalition.

Previous experience suggests the chances of success are slim.

Fault lines have predicably developed in NUNS, and 10-15 NU deputies may refuse to vote for Tymoshenko in her attempt to become PM again - she will need almost every one of those vote to be elected.

In an article to be published in a German periodical Yushchenko, again asserts that the representatives PoR must be appointed to government posts "from vice- premier to minister". He obviously envisages formation of a wide coalition, or 'shyrka', something that has already been ruled out by BYuT and many NUNS deputies.

PoR are not all 'singing from the same hymn sheet' either. Viktor Yanukovych considers coalition negotiations undertaken last week with prospective coalition partners by senior PoR figures Rayisa Bohatyryova and Boris Kolesnikov to be premature, and he sees only himself in the PM's chair.

He says negotiations on the creation of a parliamentary coalition should only begin only after the official announcement of the elections results.

Curiously, Yanukovych noted that PoR is not frightened of the possibility of working in opposition. "If this happens, the we will be in opposition," he said.

At least the attempts to 'square the circle' are thus far, being conducted in a civilized manner. Today Tymoshenko and Yanukovych even had a brief conversation.

Splits in NUNS?

A couple of days ago 40 out of 72 newly-elected NU-NS VR deputies signed an appeal to president Yushchenko declaring that they refuse to support any PoR-NUNS coalition in parliament.

All the deputies from the National Self-defence quota in the NUNS bloc who will be entering parliament, have signed the appeal [apart from Oleksandr Omelchenko].

'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' also carry this item in a rather inflated article on possible coalition combinations.

PoR's position on 'shyrka'

Will the Rada remain without 151 deputies or there will be a wide coalition? asks Rinat Akhmetov's 'Segodnya' today. It then continues:

If the negotiations between PoR and NUNS on the creation of wide coalition are not successful, then 151 deputies from the PoR will not accept their mandates, giving a basis to acknowledge the Supreme Rada illegitimate.

Our sources in the highest ranks of PoR report that the party is considering the option to refuse to take up 151 VR mandates unless agreement is reached on a wide coalition. "Even if we take up our mandates, but agreements are infringed and NUNS and BYUT create a coalition, then 10-15 patriots will always be found who will not vote for Tymoshenko as premier. In this case our fundamental position is that Viktor Yanukovych must remain premier," said our source."

There you have it - clear and to the point..


p.s. You wouldn't guess from this pie chart from 'Segodya' that BYuT [white] came within about 3.5% of catching PoR [blue] in last Sunday's election would you?

Lytvyn getting cocky already

An article in Akhmetov's big-selling 'Segodnya' newspaper reveals Lytvyn has wasted no time, and is already punching over his weight.

Here are some bits:

"Lytvyn is demanding management of tax administration, customs service, Kiev [city council] and parliament

Lytvyn envisages himself speaker of parliament, and sees members of his bloc in the positions of head of the state tax administration of Ukraine, and as Kyiv city head. Reliable sources have revealed that Lytvyn made these demands during private consultations with the leaders of the political forces which passed into the new parliament.

A list was apparently produced during his encounter with the President, and then at his meeting with Yulia Tymoshenko. Similar demands were made by Lytyvn to the Party of Regions. Furthermore, Lytvyn's packet of portfolio requirements included retention of his brother Mykola Lytvyn in his position as head of the state customs service.

All the main political forces consider Lytvyn's demands to be excessive - his bloc did not even gain 4% of votes cast. However, Lytvyn himself is not back-tracking."

Segodnya claims the deal on the PoR-NUNS-Lytvyn bloc 'shyrka' [broad coalition] may almost be complete - with Viktor Baloha, currently head of the pres's secretariat, becoming PM. In this way Yanuk and Yulka are both neutralized in the race for the presidency. But the paper does go on to describe many possible twists and turns including splits in NUNS, and possible conflicts in any BYuT-NUNS coalition.

The paper also reveals that 'lyubi dity': Yushchenko's nephew Yaroslav, Lutsenko's brother Serhiy, and son of former mayor of Kyiv Aleksandr Omelchenko all failed to enter the new VR on the NUNS list. You can be sure that Yanik's son got in though.

LEvko thinks all the particants in the coalition-building talks have thus far behaved responsibly, and comments made by them have been measured, which is encouraging. But sooner or later someone's going to be mighty disappointed, then it may well become a different matter...

Ukraine facing same old problem

By "commissiong the Party of Regions, BYuT, Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense and the other winners to start preliminary political consultations to form a majority in Ukraine’s parliament and form a government," the pres. today revealed he favours a grand coalition - there are already unconfirmed reports of behind-the-scenes meetings between head of pres.s secretariat Viktor Baloha, PoR fraction honcho Boris Kolesnikov, and Voldymyr Lytvyn.

Tymoshenko is demanding clarification on this, but Pres. has gone to Germany at this critical time [to bestow an award to the Queen of Sweden?! - fixing up next summer's holiday?].

BYuT have again today reiterated [for the umpteeth time] that they would rather go into oppostion than join a coalition which includes PoR.

In theory BYuT and NUNS could create a ruling VR coalition on their own, but with only 228 deputies in a 450 seat VR, it would most likely crumble in weeks.

The Lytvyn bloc, with 20 deputies of their own, could join them, but closer examination reveals this bloc to be a most peculiar construct indeed.

Their well-financed election campaign was generously supported by Vasyl Khmelnytskiy, Ukraine's 12th richest oligarch. He had been a BYuT deputy in the previous VR, but was one of the first to 'jump ship' and collaborate with PoR in the spring, when orange deputies started drifting over to the ruling anti-crisis coalition. He now appears on the new PoR list, but many of 'his people' will enter the new VR on the Lytvyn bloc list.

I have posted previously about Lytvyn and the people with whom he tried to enter the VR in last March's elections, and others have also posted on his dubious past.

Recent history strongly suggests such a BYuT-NUNS-Lytvyn coalition would not be stable, even if formed.

As for PoR, going into opposition now would be too great a humiliation. They will simply refuse to pick up their newly-gained parliamentary mandates - the new VR would be still-born, and the current Yanukovych cabinet would continue to function.

A few moments ago, in Berlin, Yush emphasized that some positions in the government and parliament must be given to the opposition.

Sadly, some pro-orange commentators have gotten rather over-excited in recent days.

LEvko thinks Yanuk could possibly be sacrificed to assuage orange anguish if a broad coalition is formed. Whatever the composition of any new ruling VR coalition and government, it will be an improvement on the previous PoR-Communist-Socialist anti-crisis coalition.

If BYuT go into opposition, because have gained over 150 seats in the new VR, they have the power to 'bring down the roof' at a time of their choosing.

However, a cheering feature revealed in the voting results, is highlighted in a 'Kyiv Weekly' article : the distant regions of Ukraine have it seems have drawn closer together - the threat of a split has receeded somewhat.

In the north-west oblasts of Rivne and Lutsk, PoR scored a respectable 10% and 7%,. BYuT did well in the eastern and southern oblasts. NUNS scored 9% in Crimea, BYuT 16% in the Kharkiv oblast.

The results show that the number of core regions, in which individual parties dominated in the 2006 elections, i.e. exceeded their score by 50% compared with the entire country, has been reduced by one quarter. So the scare stories of 'Banderites' in the east, and 'bandits' in the west are not having the same impact as previously. Parties, maybe for the first time since indepence, are becoming national parties, not just regional parties.

Slippery operators

Looks as if San Sanych Moroz is on his way out - missing you already....

As one slippery operator moves out, another one - Volodymyr Lytvyn - moves in.

More on him from a previous blog here. As I wrote then, being in opposition is not his style. My hunch is that he will string his suitors along for a while, then probably go orange..but if this happens, there is no way PoR will stand in the opposition corner, and the toys will really start flying in the PoR nursery.

Easy way of gaining seats

A poll of exit polls show the Socialists gaining 2.5% of votes cast, which would give them precisely zero deputies in the new VR.

Assuming that around 20 million Ukrainians in total voted, if about 100,000 votes for the Socialists could be "found" from somewhere right now, this would give the Socialists 3% of the votes and, bingo! 14 or 15 seats in the new VR, which could significantly tilt the result in PoR's favour.

There are 450 seats in the VR, so each deputy normally is equivalent to 20 million divided by 450 voters, i.e. about 44 thousand voters. But for parties bubbling just below the 3% threshold, a few thousand votes could be very, very valuable.

Tempting, no?

Update: Both President Yushchenko, in an official statement [in English here] and the Central Election Commission have warned electoral commissions, particularly in southern and eastern oblasts, to make haste and complete their counting of votes. The clear hint is that there may be malevolent intent behind the delay. He added that any falsifications will be dealt with by law enforcement agencies. Hmm..

There is chance that the Socialists may just creep in by a gnat's **** too, so, tension increasing..

Lytvyn holds the key

Exit polls indicate today's elections may produce a paper-thin and fragile BYuT-NUNS majority coalition with 227 to 233 deputies in the 450 seat parliament. If Lytvyn's bloc, join them, this would increase to 252 - a reasonable working majority.

PoR and Communists will probably only be able to muster 198 to 204 between them. If they are jointed by Lytvyn's bloc they will still only secure 223 places - insufficient to form a majority.

But there are big buts..

PoR's sponsors will not readily accept their party going into opposition - they run too much of Ukraine's industrial base to allow their political enemies to control the country's economy. In their eyes Yushchenko's dismissal of parliament, and today's election, was illegal in any case. They were set fair for several more years in power until Yushchenko pulled the plug on the VR, so they will be hurting bad..

PoR will be desperate to form and lead a stable grand coalition with NUNS, and will demand the economic portfolios in any new cabinet. The wily fox Lytvyn will probably be working on a deal on these lines right now..

p.s. All pre-election opinion polls underrated BYuT 'big-time' yet again.

Update: PoR's own exit poll has PoR at 36%, BYuT 30%, NSNU 11%, Commies 4.5%, with Lytvyn's bloc 'overcoming the 3% barrier'. Again it looks as if Lytvyn will be the king maker.

Bookies know best

A leading Kyiv bookmaker is predicting [as of Wednesday] the result of Sunday's VR election to be:

PoR 32.7%
BYuT 24.9%
NUNS 13.9%
Commies 4%

and below the 3% threshold: Lytvyn bloc 2.8% Socialists 2.6% Vitrenko bloc 2.3%
I guess I go along with these figures - give or take 1-2%.

By my calculations this would produce a VR with PoR having 195 deputies, Commies 24, BYuT 148 and NUNS 83, i.e. an orange majority of 12, but it is all just to close to call..
Lots more talking around Yushchenko's white round table to come then.

PoR demands control of economic sector in any future government

Party of Regions does not exclude conducting extraordinary presidential elections, if representatives of "Regiony" do not enter the new government which may be formed after Sunday's parliamentary selections.

Leading PoR member Raisa Bohatyryova, in a TV interview today said:

"We presuppose what the results of elections will be, but the forecast result does not mean the forecast process. And on the basis that we cannot forecast how the political process will develop, we say that if today the will of the voters who support the Party of Regions, voters, who form the part of the territory of Ukraine that produces 2/3 of its gross [domestic] product, the will of these voters will not be taken into account, then it cannot be imagined that any future authority can be formed without the participation of Party of Regions."

"If this political crisis which could spring up after the elections is not resolved by constitutional means, then a political situation could arise, where the solution to the same political crisis would be early elections, but this time early presidential elections."
"This is the reality, and politician live with these realities, and no-one should be blamed for what will happen. There are objective laws, and there are different objective situations. If our political opponents understand this, even forecast this, then they also must be interested in working in the lawful field. To uphold the constitution, the law and the will of voter," concluded Bohatyryova.

What she is saying in a clumsy way, is I guess, that even if PoR were to do badly in the elections they should be included in the new government because the regions of Ukraine where they have greatest support also produces most of the country's wealth - they are demanding control of the economic sector.

Does she have a point? But PoR are going to win in any case aren't they? Right?

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The Corruption Perceptions Index for 2007 was published several days ago.

Ukraine is ranked 118 - same as Malawi and Benin, but worse than Uganda, Mozambique, Rwanda, Burkina Faso, Bolivia, Albania, Gabon, Jamaica.....

The only cheering news for Ukrainians is that they beat the Ruskies [at 143] and their northern neigbour Belarus. Most of the "..stans" fared worse too..

Verdict: Unsatisfactory progress..

Election campaign turning into custard pie fight

A quick run-through of Ukrainian news sites starkly reveals the mess the country is in, which could endanger its democratic development.

Suzanna Stanik, who had been relieved of her post as head of the Constitutional Court by presidential ukaz, and then reinstated by a regional court which recinded the president's ruling, is in 'hot water' again. The security services of Ukraine [SBU] has handed over evidence to state prosecutors indicating that she allegedly received a $12m bribe.

Party of Regions have accused the president's secretariat and the SBU of jointly creating a mechanism for unprecedented falsification of the elections. At the same time, the SBU have opened criminal cases against officials in eastern Ukraine for falsifying elections lists.

And lethal quantities of heophylline and digoxin have allegedly been found in the blood of the Minister of Internal Affairs Vasiliy Tsushko, who himself is responsible for law enforcement. The drugs may well have triggered his recent heart attack. Apparently this was confirmed by independent examinations, carried out in two German laboratories.

Tsushko, at a press conference, reported that both examinations were completed on 21st September. He said that the blood sample, sent for analysis to Germany, was taken on 27th May.

When asked by journalists, what where the motives for his alleged poisoning, he replied that it could have been either an attempt to provoke the beginning of a revolution, or the result of his anticorruption activities in the Ministry of Internal Affairs. He said that several days after the poisoning, head of the SBU Volodymyr Nalyvaychenko visited the clinic where he was being treated: "to see if had met his end or not". He continued: "In reply to who ordered it, [the poisoning], today the SBU is a structure, controlled by the secretariat of the President, and I think that V.Nalyvachenko was directed to me by the secretariat of the President, but I again repeat - I do not have any claims or suspicions against Nalyvaychenko".

Tsushko said that the theophylline is used to treat asthma and chronic lung diseases of the lungs, but he had never taken such drugs. Digoxin is used to treat cardio-vascular disease.

On 20th August, at a press conference in Dnipropetrovsk, Tsushko had denied that he had been poisoned, but on 1st June, Socialist VR deputy Yevhen Filindash stated at a VR session that Tsushko had been poisoned, and knew who the organizers of the poisoning were.

On 26th May Tsushko was hospitalized with 'myocardial infarction". On 31st May, because of a deterioration in his condition, he was transferred to a German clinic and underwent a coronary bypass operation.

What is fact and what is fantasy? - Ukrainian politics are rapidly becoming a farce. Marx said, "History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce." Hopefully it will not be the otherway around.

Yu accuses Ya

Today, in a TV interview, president Yushchenko expressed surprise that: "the head of executive government is flying around in a helicopter and at each meeting is telling everyone how falsifications are being prepared [in the elections]".

"Why is it that Yanukovych is speaking about falsifications at each of his meetings? Because he has already planned this falsification. It will take place. We are talking about how to deal with problem," said Yushchenko.

Sobering reminder about the past of some of Ukraine's leading politicians

Half hour film on the Donetsk Mafia, in Ukrainian, by Volodymyr Ariev, here. It's well worth watching but takes quite a while to load, so be patient..

Would you put your money in a bank whose managing director spent three and a half years in prison for crimes of violence?

Would you take your sick child to see a doctor who spent three and a half years in prison for crimes of violence?

Would you trust a policeman who spent three and a half years in prison for crimes of violence?

Would you let such a man teach your kids?

Accusations of falsification being ramped up

Accusations and counter-accusations of cheating by the main political protagonists are reducing the chances of the September 30th VR elections being conducted fairly and producing a result that will be accepted by all participating parties - something that is being almost completely missed in articles on the elections in the Western press.

E.g. Minister of Internal Affairs, Socialist Vasyl Tsushko today declared, "The police has uncovered 3.5 million immigrant workers who have long-left Ukraine [on lists], but have constantly voted for someone...of those 2.5 million 'dead souls' are from western oblasts and 1 million from southern ones..Many parties counted [them up] and wept, because for some it led to a loss of 5% of votes in the elections."

According to the head the Ukrainian security services [SBU] department for fighting corruption and organized crime in the Kharkiv oblast, Andriy Mukhtayev, inaccuracies and errors in the lists of the voters of region are so widespread that they will be sufficient to distort the results of elections to 4.17%. 94,290 doubles have been discovered 'living' in the oblast, about 44 thousand of them in Kharkiv alone.

Lugansk elector lists seem to show 435 voters at the age of 100 years still live in the city.
The SBU have established that in Kharkiv, the lists of voters included more than 2,000 persons aged 107 or older.

In Kyiv, where PoR have also accused the authorities of packing voter lists with 'dead souls' doubles etc.,the main political protagonists are already 'laying out their beach towels on the swimming pool loungers in the Maidan*'. PoR are setting up a big stage and large military-style tents in Independence square - BYuT are doing the same in St Sophia Square.

*Mediterranean holiday resorts are frequented by holidaymakers from many European and other countries during the summer. Traditionally it is the Germans who get up the earliest in the morning, even before breakfast, to place their towels on the best-placed loungers around the swimming pool.

LEvko thinks Ukraine's courts are going to be very busy after election day. Western media, e.g. Britain's 'Guardian' are overlooking the probability of a messy post-election period - political crisis is the default condition for Ukraine.

A worrying ratcheting up of rhetoric

Today in Sevastopol PM Viktor Yanukovych stated that any attempts to falsify the results of the extraordinary Sept 30th VR elections, or to declare the elections void, will result in large scale actions of protest.

"We are receiving information from all regions of Ukraine that they [the opposition] have switched to a full program of utilization of administrative resources, and will try by any means to falsify the elections or ensure they do not take place. We know this. We have turned to the law-enforcement agencies, to the Procurator General's office, and to President Yushchenko. I said [to the President], if you go for this, you should know: for you it will end with you not only losing selections - some will not [even] have time to fly away from Ukraine, because all the common people will rise up. The country will rise up against these irresponsible people, who are destroying the entire country," said Yanukovych on Saturday, addressing a PoR meeting in Sevastopol, reportedly attended by 8000 supporters.

Only a couple of days ago PoR announced it was their intention to withdraw from the early election campaign [and nullify the result?] if its opponents do not stop their alleged provocations.

Does this sudden flip in strategy indicate the intervention of a hidden hand, or just confused leadership?

Legal wars to come?

More and more political commentators are predicting an untidy post-election period following to the September 30th VR elections.

E.g. at a round table discussion, former President Leonid Kravchuk predicted that voting could be declared void, or 150 elected deputies, dissatisfied with results, could refuse swear an oath of acceptance of office. [Over 150 deputies ripped up their mandates to sink the previous, 5th convocation of the VR - a tactic that could come back to haunt the president]

The new, 6th VR convocation, may not be able to function, but the present one, - the 5th convocation, which has held sessions even though it was 'dismissed', is considered illegitimate by half the country. As a result - the country could remain without a parliament, says Kravchuk.

He added that in this case: "The President has the possibility to introduce direct presidential administration. He can turn to the people and say there is no parliament, it is necessary to formulate a budget and so forth. But if he does this, it will be the beginning of the end of the orange authority. When the President has only about 10% of the country's support, then to go this way is dangerous for Ukraine."

More likely, if no clear winner emerges in the voting, a drawn-out battle in the courts will ensue.

Other commentators are taking note of statements made by Serhiy Kivalov, who has now taken over the role of PoR's legal manager, about how, if the election results are challenged in court, it could be 50 days before any decisions are made. Something I posted on a couple of days ago. [some good photos of S.K. in this link]

Also 'Ukrainska Pravda', in an article entitled "Arsenals of Yushchenko, Tymoshenko, and Yanukovych in the judicial war", describes who will be loyal to whom in the Central Election Commission, in the various courts, judicial councils, Prosecutor General's office etc., in the event of a judicial war taking place.

The article concludes: "Of course any mechanism has flaws, however, at the end of the campaign, it is the Yushchenko-Tymoshenko team, and not Yanukovych's, which has demonstrated a systematic approach to their preparation for post-election [legal] battles."

PoR pot calling orange kettle black

On May 27th 2007, President Yushchenko, PM Yanukovych, and VR speaker Moroz signed a statement, portions of which I include below:

"Joint Statement by the President of Ukraine, the speaker of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine and the Prime Minister of Ukraine on Urgent Measures Aimed at Resolving the Political Crisis Through Early Parliamentary Elections

Being fully aware of the responsibility for the country’s social,
political and economic situation, guaranteeing that there will be no escalation of the political crisis, seeking to resolve it as quickly as possible through exceptionally peaceful means on the basis of talks involving the leading political forces, guided by the Constitution of Ukraine and wishing to uphold the nation’s interests and preserve the country’s unity, the sides have agreed to:

1. for the purpose of creating proper conditions enabling the citizens to exercise their constitutional rights, ensure that there are no attempts to
aggravate the conflict in society and prevent all possible actions provoking the use of force;

2. hold an early parliamentary election on September 30, 2007..."

Now PoR are threatening to 'take their bat and ball away and sulk in their tent,' by not participating in the September 30th elections, because the other side are.... cheating...

Also today Moroz told representatives of accredited diplomatic institutions that, "Yuliya Tymoshenko is paying 700 hryven each to members of polling station commissions in order to provide the 'required' result..and $1,000 per month to those who will agitate in territories for this political force."

Part of a co-ordinated plan to scupper the election, or its results, if things don't go well for the anti-crisis coalition?

And Vyacheslav Kyrylenko, the head of the political council of the NUNS bloc, is forecasting that parliamentary deputies elected from the Party of Regions' list of candidates will not recognize any new composition of the Cabinet of Ministers by refusing to attend next sessions of the new parliament.

In the words of Irving Berlin: "There may be trouble ahead..

Kivalov's predictions

Serhiy Kivalov [see photo], former head of the Central Election Commission and 'fiddler in chief' during the 2004 presidential elections, now a PoR deputy, has written a piece in 'Glavred' entitled: "Will the results of elections [appear] by the winter?"

He is the man whose face reminds me of the Sopranos, or Hollywood prison movies on the roof of Alcatraz.

If he was ever in a court dock, he would get 6 months for looks alone.

His literary skills seem to exceed the numeracy skills that he demonstrated in 2004. I've loosely translated some portions.

"How many days will be required for the CEC to declare the results of the extraordinary elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine? Practical experience and [current] legislation suggest that the days required for calculation may turn into months.

The 'oranges' declare, that the VR will be working already in October. Personally I have serious doubts doubts on this, and will explain why.

The law of Ukraine: "On the election of peoples' deputies," states that the CEC must establish the results of elections not later, than 15 days after voting day, and results must be promulgated not later than 5 days after the day of the establishment of results.

Everything would be simple, if it were not the high probability of the avalanche of complaints from outsiders of elective process.

The code of judicial system administration has placed a time bomb on the periods of the declaration of the results of elections, because it forbids proclaiming the results of elections until the moment that not one complaint remains to be dealt with by the courts concerning the elective process.

It goes without saying, each subject of the elective process and voter has a right to challenge decisions, actions or inactions of the election commissions at any level, if such decsions, actions or inactions omission disrupt their elective rights or interests. Any appeal has to be submitted within two days to an administrative law court. The period permitted to examine such matters is 5 days. The resolution of administrative law court can be appealed by an appellate order in the appellate administrative law court in the course of the next 2 days. The period the examination of such matters in the appellate administrative organs is 2 days. Thus, examination of a complaint by a voter could take up 11 days.

Furthermore, an appeal on the work of neighborhood election commissions can be made up to 5 days after election day. The period of examination for such matters is 5 days. The resolution of administrative law court can be appealed in an appellate order to an appellate administrative law court during the next 2 days. The period of the examination of such matters in the appellate administrative court is 2 days. This means the declaration of the results could be postponed by two weeks.

Finally the results can be can be appealed 5 days later in the highest administrative law court. The period of the examination of such matters in the highest administrative law court is 5 days. Consequently, matters could be dragged out for 25 days.

Simple calculation shows the results of the extraordinary VR elections 2007 could be proclaimed 50 days after polling on 30th September.

All this is not just manipulation of numbers, but the real state of affairs. But this only one side of the coin. On the other side, while all this being calculated, the work in the parliament will be considered illegitimate, and the country's problems multiply.

E.g. the deadline for debating the 2008 budget in the VR has been postponed for an indetermined period, although according to the constitution of Ukraine and budgetary code the project must be directed by KabMin to parliament by 15th September, and should be is accepted in its entirety by 1st December. Deviation from this is a dangerous tendency.

In the country the judicial system is being destabilized. Judges who have ended their five-year period of duty, and the candidatures of new ones which must be examined in VR for election to the post of judges, cannot take place. At the beginning of autumn of this year approximately 400 judges are not working, but are drawing a state salary, whilst the case-load of their remaining colleagues grows.

I fear, that this time the popular saying won't ring true: we won't be able to count our chickens by the autumn. At best it will be winter already. And that, if the elections will not have been declared void."

LEvko considers the scenario presented by 'Pidrakhuy' Kivalov to be realistic, particularly if the election result turns out 'even-stevens'. And as I have written previously, Yanukovych has called these elections illegal, so why should PoR accept the result if it goes against them?

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UNIAN reports that yesterday nearly 60 thousand people attended Yuliya Tymoshenko's election hustings in Chernihiv, a town about 140 km north of Kyiv with a population of around 300,000. [photo here]

In March last year BYuT garnered 33% of votes cast in the Chernihiv oblast. Some say Ukraine's voters 'have had it with their politicians?'

Have they really?

P.s. Several days ago a firearm was confiscated from Serhiy Kivalov while he was on board an aircraft that had taken off from Borispil Kyiv on an international flight. No charges have been made - the minister of internal affairs, Vasyl Tsushko, when questioned about about this, responded, "I know nothing, I'm on leave."

Kalinovskiy 'does a runner'

Once again Ukrainian law enforcement officials have shown themselves, in the words of an old song, to 'have wooden legs, and their dogs to have rubber teeth'.

In the small hours of 30th May this year, Serhiy Kalinovskiy, step-son of the infamous Dmitro Firtash [of RosUkrEnergo fame] and a member of Kyiv's 'gilded youth', smashed his convertible BMW M6 at high speed into a stationary Lada, killing his own 25 year old girlfriend and also the occupant of the Lada. On June 11th a farcical failed attempt was made to smuggle him out of the country from the clinic in which he was being treated for 'injuries incompatible with life'. More background details on this story from a previous blog here.

In recent years there have been many cases of members of Ukraine's political elite killing innocent members of the public by driving recklessly. None of these cases have ever been properly dealt with or investigated.

This Saturday Kalinovskiy 'dissappeared' from the swanky 'Biofarmtekh' clinic in Kyiv, where he has supposedly been treated for the last three and a half months, whilst on bail and under guard. He was apparently assisted by a group of accomplices, and having changed clothes, escaped through a rear entrance. He then climbed through a hole in the fence and was driven away in a waiting automobile.

Much has been made of stripping criminal immunity from VR deputies recently, but everyone knows that in reality, if you've got enough money and the right connections you have it already - you are truly above the law.

Is it any wonder Ukrainian law enforcement agencies and prosecutors are considered to be bad joke..

How important will be the 'fiddle factor' in the September 30th elections?

Party of Regions have declared that in some parts of Ukraine, the oblast state administrations [ODA's] have distorted voter data in order to falsify VR election voting on September 30th.

They say that according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and state immigration service, in total, 3,323,000 Ukrainian citizens have left Ukraine in recent times, and have not returned. A large portion of these are from 'orange-supporting' western-most oblasts. At the same time, according to the data provided by the chairman of L'viv ODA as a result of the updating the list of voters, as of 16th August, the number of voters in the region has increased by almost 20%, even though, according to Ministry of Internal Affairs data, as of 19th August, more than 524,000 inhabitants from the L'viv oblast who have the right to vote in the elections, have gone abroad.

PoR say a similar situation allegedly exists in the Sumy region, which traditionally supports 'orange' politicians. There the number of voters has allegedly increased by more than 120,000. Most of the ODA heads may be considered to be pro-presidential in outlook.

PoR are convinced that: "..differences in the voter list data provided by the heads of the ODA's and that provided by the Ministry of Internal Affairs, may indicate intentional distortion by local organs of authority of statistical data for the purpose of illegally obtaining a significant extra quantity ballot papers for further criminal use during voting."

Meanwhile representatives of BYuT in the eastern Ukrainian city of Mariupol revealed that the list of the city's voters which has been sent to the Central Election Commission, contains a large number of people with the almost identical surnames, christian names, patronymics, addresses and even dates of birth. Senior BYuT leader Mykola Tomenko claims there could be 19,000 "pseudo-persons" on the list. If similar 'Mariupol-twins' scams are being prepared elsewhere, "then we can expect possible large-scale preparation for the falsification of electoral lists," warned Tomenko. BYuT is passing on all the documents to the CEC for thorough checking.

LEvko thinks a significant number of politicians in Ukraine would be quite happy with a 'Florida scenario' and have the entire vote annulled, so expect see more fiddles* than in the New York Philharmonic at Carnegie hall in days to come.
*to fiddle - to cheat [British Informal]

Illuminating speculation from 'Kommentarii'

Some interesting, informative and well-reasoned speculation in the latest 'Kommentarii', in an article entitled: "Life after the elections"

I've loosely translated some portions:

"The snap parliamentary election campaign was undertaken not only for the sake of re-elections to the VR. The aim - at a maximum - was to create a dependable base for carrying out a referendum on the constitution , to tame regional councils, and to ensure a presidential election victory for Viktor Yushchenko, providing him with a second term in office.

At first sight it would appear that for the President's Secretariat, the early elections are a matter of 'sh*t or bust'. The chances of a victory for either the ruling coalition or the opposition are identical - within statistical error. As in 2004 and in 2006, neither "white-blue", nor "orange" will have a significant majority.

However the presidential team is playing another game in which even defeat in parliamentary elections is only a lost fight - hardly an argument for capitulation. The only alternative for which they are not ready on 'Bank Street' [pres. secretariat] is the highly improbable uniting of efforts of Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovych.
The authorship of idea of parliamentary re-elections of parliament belongs to BYuT.

Even if it will be possible to create a pro-presidential 'coalition of democratic forces' in the new parliament, and even if BYuT has the 'controlling share', this will not mean automatic nomination of Tymoshenko as prime minister. Yushchenko will demand certain guarantees: first, that BYuT unconditionally supports the president's initiatives, particularly the presidents proposal in any referendum on the constitution, and secondly, that Tymoshenko supports Yushchenko in the 20009 presidential elections.

There is a considerable risk that Yushchenko and Tymoshenko will disagree, not only on the distribution of powers, but also about a program of actions to be conducted after the elections, including re-election of local councils and mayor of Kiev, and Ukraine's possible application to join NATO, etc. There is a substantial possibility of almost immediate infringement of agreements made between the two parties also.

At the moment NUNS and BYuT are speaking about two different referendums: NUNS about the new Constitution, and BYuT about a choice between parliamentary and presidential forms of state administration. Both parties understand that the realizing of BYuT's proposal is fraught with problems for Yushchenko, whereas for Tymoshenko, whatever the outcome of a plebiscite, she will be in advantageous position.

Formation of a common position by the two political forces has been postponed until after the elections. The greatest stimulus to unity between NUNS and BYuT is that if they once again show an inability to reach concensus, they, and their leaders, will lose electoral support.

The main players in the elections are now seriously considering extreme possibilities. For example, no-one can now give a guarantee, that the new parliament will safely come to power. The problem is not with legal proceedings, though these could be drawn out, rather with expected decisions to recount votes in different areas - claims are being prepare already now.

The greatest risk faced is that in certain constituencies the results of elections could be annulled. In this case there will be a questions raised on the legitimacy of the new parliament, as the will of inhabitants of some areas will appear to have been ignored.
Particularly acute problems may be expected if the destiny of any party achieving around 3% of votes cast [the minimum threshold required to enter parliament] is in question, or if the two opposing coalitions receive approximately identical number of mandates.

In the event that the 'blue and whites' lose, PoR and its possible satellites will insist that the previously elected VR remains the most legitimate. The extraordinary September 4th session of the VR, which the ruling coalition considers legitimate, but the President and opposition do not, supports this possible turn of events.

If the post-election situation becomes aggravated or, not less probable, if the president's team wishes to aggravate it, there remains the possibility that the presidential team will not permit the new parliament to function at all. And, as the Constitution demands the government lays down its powers before the newly elected VR, the Cabinet too will appear illegitimate. In this case the President could nominate temporarily-acting members of the government — and could announce a referendum, declaring it a panacea to permanent political crisis.

The big risk is that the country could 'wind up' with two parliaments and two governments, and the legitimacy of both would be extremely doubtful. The country would be only one step away from splitting - it would be necessary only to divide up the 'power' organs: who submits to whom. But if all parties were to agree to leave the final say with the people, a referendum, most likely, would not be limited. It could include re-election of all authorities in conformity with a new Constitution, including the Supreme Rada and the President.

Hopes are not too high on the creation of a broad coalition. Previous attempts caused 'Our Ukraine' to lose significant support from its voters for a whole year. It is more probable, that in co-ordination with leading PoR 'shareholders, a "neutral" prime-minister, not formally connected with any political force, could be nominated. The PM's main task would be the formation of a "technocratic" government exclusively engaged on economic matters, as well as conducting a referendum. A pivotal role in this could be played by the Litvin Block, if it enters parliament.

This government could include the best-equipped professionals, irrespective of their previous political history. The head of such a government could even eventually become a realistic contender for the president's chair. Sadly, the more effective such a technical prime-minister proves to be, the shorter his period of office could turn out. Such are the laws of competition.

There are few people, apart from Tymoshenko's biggest enemies in NUNS and PoR, who have any faith in prospects of the new union between Yushchenko and Yanukovych. At stake are not only the post of prime-minister, but also the destiny of a referendum, and the entire political future of Yushchenko.

The President should hold on to either Tymoshenko or Yanukovych. Otherwise both of them will contenders in the presidential elections - and Viktor Andreevich may not even make it into the second round."

Election fire sales

As usual, the onset of early elections in Ukraine has elicited some quick footwork by Ukraine's major business players to gain further assets, or to protect their own existing interests.

I've posted recently on the 'bargain-basement' acquisition of a big slice of energy generator 'Dniproenergo', by companies associated with Rinat Akhmetov, gaving Yuliya Tymoshenko a weapon with which to 'hand-bag' PoR.

PoR have been forced to respond via an official statement to Tymoshenko's assault, and there are rumours that a counter-attack is being prepared which will reveal that companies close to Tymoshenko herself had caused the decline of Dniproenergo.

Today 'Ukrainska Pravda' even suggests there are reasonable grounds to assume that officials in Yushchenko's secretariat tacitly approved the deal, which now gives Akhmetov a dominant stake in the Ukrainian power generation market.

And today 'Kommersant-Ukraina' runs a story [repeated elsewhere in Ukrainian] which reveals how two other of Ukraine's richest oligarchs, Viktor Pinchuk and Ihor Kolomoysky, have pulled off a clever stunt to reduce the odds of another huge industrial enterprise, the Nikopol Ferroalloy Plant [NZF], ever being reprivatized.

I have in the past posted detailed background on the saga of NZF, which Tymoshenko had tried to reprivatize in 2005. Its owners, Pinchuk and Kolomoysky, had been rivals, but recently joined forces to prevent any possible reprivatization. They are now both regarded as generally 'pro-Yushchenko'.

Anyhow, here are some portions from the Kommersant article:

"Viktor Pinchuk and Ihor Kolomoysky [act to] protect NZF shares from [possible] reprivatization - as a result of Pinchuk's efforts, the block of shares in NZF, which could be returned to state, is now less than 10%. Yesterday the shareholders of NZF decided to increase the company statutory fund by more than five times. In the opinion of lawyers, the shareholders of NZF want to secure their business from possible attempts to reprivatize it after the parliamentary elections.

NZF accounts for about 10% of world market for ferro alloys. In 2006 the enterprise produced 628 thousand tons of silicomanganese, 260,6 thousand tons of ferromanganese and 4,3 thousand tons of other ferro alloys. Profits in 2006 - 1,152 million hryven [over $200m].

73% of the shares are owned by a consortium which is a part of Pinchuk's "Interpipe", 26% belong to the structures of Ihor Kolomoysky's "Privat" group.

The shareholders decided to increase the statutory fund by 312 million grn - to 387.88 million hryven by the closed issue of additional shares. "After the five-fold increase in the NZF statutory fund, the disputed state packet will be reduced from a controlling share to less than the 10%," said one commentator. [Tymoshenko has waged a long battle to return to state ownership 50% + 1 of the shares of the company.]

LEvko thinks maybe these guys are getting a bit worried how things pan out after September 30th. Akhmetov and Pinchuk, who had owned Kryvorizhstal before Yulka resold it, do not want to take another beating from that woman.

p.s. More background information, on how NFZ's 'owners' planned to water down any majority stake in the company that could possibly be returned to the state, can be read in 'Kyiv Post' here, in an April 25th 2007 piece on shady privatizations.

PoR need big turn-out on polling day

Yanukovych, commenting on a possible low September 30th election day turn-out, during a live TV interview with a local Zaporizhzhya TV station today, said:

"I've looked at the sociology [statistics], which there is now on Ukraine. I looked the south-eastern regions: 50%-55%, up to 60% intend to go to the elections. If this indeed will be the turn-out, then this will be the result, it won't be necessary to blame anyone. These elections are now the question: "To be or not to be?", and if the Ukrainian people want to have an orange government in power, it means, then this is what we'll get, if this will be the turn-out. If it does not want this - it is necessary for everybody to get out and vote. September 30th - go to the elections - this is main question for the country and the Ukrainian people."

"If people say to us that we do not deserve their confidence, we will move aside, and as they say, we will carry out the will of the people," he added.

As LEvko posted on 1st Ausust: "A straw poll on the [big-selling] 'Donbass' [newspaper] site, which asks visitors whether they will cast a vote on September 30th or not, currently has 54% replying 'Yes', and 38% replying 'No'. Not scientific, but worrying nevertheless for PoR. Voter apathy may be their biggest problem."

What the electorate worry about

According to a recent OP, the matters that most concern Ukrainians are: Increases in prices - 69%, Corruption, particularly in the higher echelons of authority - 50%, and unjustified housing and communal services tariffs - 48%.

Other matters of concern were: Indifference of authority to the opinion of simple citizens - 42%, Inaccessibility and the low quality of medical services - 29%, Increasing drug addiction and alcoholism - 27%, Lack of welfare provision for pensioners, the poor, and for large families – 26%, The unsatisfactory ecological situation - 19%, Displacement of the Russian language and culture - 17%, Weak position of Ukrainian language and culture - 12%, and unfavorable conditions for the development of businesses - 8%.

3600 respondents took part in the poll.

Who will be held responsible for unjustified price and housing charge price increases?
Which political force will be considered most competent to fight corruption?

Oh, and Donetsk mayor Aleksandr Lukyanchenko says bread and bakery product prices [a touchy subject in Ukraine] could increase by 20% by the end of the year. "Global reserves are at their lowest for 20 years," he explained.

Will result of 'illegal' elections count?

At a press briefing today, Viktor Yanukovych stated: "We quite openly said, that in order to preserve peace in Ukraine, we will go to elections which are illegal, and for the calling of which, there were no grounds....we said that those policians who want to receive an answer from the Ukrainian people, they will receive it."

BYuT leader, Yuliya Tymoshenko, has declared that she is not Yushchenko, and so Yanukovych and Rinat Akhmetov, PoR's principal sponsor, will receive no amnesties, and assets deemed to have been gained illegally by means of shadowy privatisations will be returned to the state.

In a recent TV interview, she calls the recent shady purchase of a major stake in 'Dniproenergo' by Akhmetov's DTEK company "a second Kryvorizhstal in magnitude".

Will PoR be prepared to go into opposition as a result of elections its leadership consider illegal, if results are not it their favour?

Will PoR be prepared to form a coalition with the party of a president who dismissed parliament and forced these 'illegal' elections, and who today, when being interviewed by western journalists, described last year's compromise deal with Yanukovych, giving Yanuk the PM's job, "..a big mistake. I was naive."?

Witty jousting in the VR

Emergency Situations Minister Nestor Shufrich, commenting in the VR on the recent [photo opportunity?] participation of President Yushchenko extinguishing a forest fire:

"Putin on a destroyer, Bush on an aircraft carrier, even Lukashenko on a tank. But our president - on a shovel".

Former Internal affairs minister and NUNS leader Yuriy Lutsenko's response, on Shufrich: "[he] is incapable to running anything. He can't even catch the two crocodiles that ran away from the Kyiv and Mariupol zoos."

When asked by journalists if he saw Nestor Shufrich as a possible successor to the post of minister minister of Internal Affairs, he replied: "Write this: in the time of the anti-national administration of Yanukovych, the number of crocodiles that ran away from zoos increased by 200%."

Hedging bets in the VR

Yesterday the Verkhovna Rada reconvened, despite three [or was it four?] presidential decrees to dissolve it.

The excellent Sonya Koshkina suggests possible motives for the gathering in her article: 'The emergency landing-strip under the [glass VR] cupola.' Here is the gist:

PoR are now less confident of victory in the September 30th elections because their ratings are falling.

The motives of the Socialists to attend the VR sitting is clear - they, more than likely, will be wiped out in the elections so are desperate to hang on as long as possible.

The Communists have limited access to Ukrainian media, so the VR provides them with a good platform for presenting their political program, and for free publicity.

With "Regiony" the situation is more interesting. In August VR speaker San Sanych [Oleksandr Oleksandrovych Moroz] attempted to call an extraordinary VR sitting, but was not supported by his PoR allies. They had made an agreement with the president not to do so, and at that time were confident of victory on 30th September. This has now changed.

Participation in the current VR sessions could provide 'insurance' in the event of an unfavorable result in the elections. As Oleksandr Moroz clearly explained in his opening address yesterday, if the sixth [i.e. the next] convocation is for any reason, not legitimate, then the current convocation will remain in place.

Viktor Yanukovych is attempting to shore up support for PoR by acting as the 'voice of authority'. He has travelling up and down the country, ostensibly as PM, but in reality has been campaigning as head of PoR. Wherever he has turned up with 'a working visit', a public meeting has taken place - contrary to the law. Whether his meetings have gained any support for PoR is debatable.

Koshkina considers that if their stay in power starts to appear questionable, 'Regiony' will undoubtedly do everything to 'scupper' the result of the election. An analogous scenario is being planned by BYuT with NU-NS in order not to remain in opposition. Three weeks remain before polling day - sufficent time to radically alter the course of respective campaigning.

The report of yesterday's VR proceedings posted on the official VR portal site states:
"In the event that the authority of the new parliament does not come about, then the parliament elected on 26th March 2006 will [continue] to act in full accordance to the Basic Laws [of Ukraine]. And the guarantee for this will be today's [4th September] sitting, as well as others, including pleniary forms of work."

'Gazeta po Kiyevki' asked its website visitors: 'Why is the VR gathering again?' The most popular reply [53.5%] was, 'To arrange free electioneering from the VR podium, and to irritate the president.'

Metaphors lost in translation

VR - is it a comedy, a circus? A laboratory, or battlefield with windmills?

"It is my duty to address you in response to an attempt by the parliamentary coalition to aggravate the situation in our country. They are going to convene an illegal session of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine tomorrow, on 4 September.... I cannot watch this comedy in silence....esteemed deputies, calm down, do not abuse the people’s patience, do not make the Verkhovna Rada a circus, a laughing-stock. The life of the country is in the walls of the Ukrainian parliament but parliament is not a laboratory for your experiments and not a battlefield for tilting at windmills."
President Yushchenko's TV address last night.

LEvko thinks pres. should get the first lady to help out with the translation..or maybe take note of this 'aphorism' quoted at the top of Yanuk's Personal Information Server:

"Only those who keep going will handle the road" [?]

Is there a hidden meaning here?.. Yanuk allegedly threatens opponents, saying he will 'Steam roll them under asphalt.'

You don't get much for $1m these days..

Poseur Putin

"How Putin failed to get a grip on political angle"

Four weeks to go..

Photo: Mykolayiv - Tuesday 28th August 2007 - 13:17

In March 2006 VR elections, BYuT obtained 11.89% of votes cast in the southern Mykolayiv oblast.

And today BYuT claim nearly 100,000 people attended their campaign rally in Kyiv's Independence Square, which was addressed by Tymoshenko ..

With four weeks to go before the elections, observers claim, "undoubtedly, the start of the election campaign has been won by BYuT..[who are] conducting the most powerful campaign..[nevertheless] the leader of the campaign is PoR, even though their ratings are not growing."

"The biggest disappointment in August is NU-NS's election campaign."

PoR getting its repudiation in first..

Below are portions of a statement just released on PoR's official site:

"Statement on preparations to use provocations against Party of Regions in the Ukrainian media

Today, as the election campaign turns into the finishing straight, the political opponents' camp is in a state of panic. With each day it is becoming more obvious, both for Ukraine and for the world community, that PoR will will win the elections and will gain the right to form the next government.

In order to stem the leakage of their electorate, the so-called opposition has been reduced to resorting to absolutely undemocratic, amoral, and often unlawful methods of political fighting, namely - informational manipulations, lying and provocations!

The Party of Regions declares: we are aware of provocations being prepared which will take the form of fasified information, and fabricated video and audio material, whose purpose will be to discredit the Party of Regions and its leaders!

These wretched failures are again acting according to the principle: "Not a day without provocations!"

PoR appeals not only to its supporters, but to all citizens of the world community: take no notice of the provocations and tricks of bankrupted politicians! They will cynically try and trick you again..

We believe that Ukrainians are a wise people which had long ago been learned to separate grains from weeds.

We not permit this bunch of irresponsible blackmailers, slanderers and babblers to return back to authority again in the country! We will not allow the country to slide backwards in its development!
And so on...

LEvko says: Dear oh dear... Did Paul Manafort's outfit write this Stalinist agitprop?
Must be some juicy tidbits in the pipeline..what can they be? Video's from Yanuk's R & R in Altai? Ho ho..just wait till the missus finds out.

Oh, and one very recent OP has PoR at 27.2%, BYuT at 26.8% and NUNS at 10.9%. This may well be a rogue result; but worrying for PoR nevertheless - connected with their panicky statement above?

Yanuk getting a bit worried?

UNIAN, quoting BYuT sources, say that nearly 55,000 people attended Tymoshenko's campaign rally in Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, on Wednesday.

Most commentators agree that the Ukrainian electorate is currently suffering from political cynicism election fatigue, so LEvko suspects a cold shiver passed down the backs of PoR leaders on hearing of the size of the crowd. Possibly the only other person who could have attracted such a crowd would have been senior PoR deputy, Mr Kharkiv himself - Yevhen Kushnaryov - but he was shot dead in a hunting accident last winter.

At last March's parliamentary elections in the Kharkiv oblast, PoR received 51.7% of the vote, BYuT received 12.68%.

Yanukovych is complaining about the dirty 'kompromat' being heaped onto him. A story posted on the 'Obozrevatel' site describes Yanuk's recent R and R holiday in the Altai region of Russia. The holiday was allegedly funded by major Russian businessman, Vladimir Yevtushenkov, owner of the 'Systema' financial-industrial conglomerate, a leading telecom, high tech and real estate player in Russia.

Yevtushenkov, brother-in-law of Mayor of Moscow Yuri Luzhkov, is allegedly interested in acquiring the Ukrainian "Ukrtelekom", and developing commercial real estate in and around Kyiv. Clearly such major transactions cannot take place without the blessing of the Ukrainian government.

'Oboz' publishes documents which it claims are from the 'Tursib' recreational villas in Altai where Yanuk's entourage stayed from 5th to the 8th August. 20 houses were reserved for them at 'Tursib', including ten 'luxes' for the VIP guests.

Unconfirmed reports say Russian playboy oligarch Mikhail Prokhorov, noted for his ski resort carousing, was also there at the time, as were ladies, of the type whose company this man, [and it seems Fedorovych] seems to enjoy.

Another story in Ukrainska Pravda reveals Yanuk's fleet of limos has been upgraded recently to the tune of 14 million hryven - nearly $3 million.

Still, Yanuk and Akhmetov embraced and ran onto the pitch together after seeing Shakhtar Donetsk beat Salzburg to reach the final stages of the European Champion's football league last night.

p.s. Yulka T. should watch what she eats from now on, and especially keep away from sushi..

Yulka reacts to Dniproenergo grab

Whilst campaigning in the Kirovohrad oblast today, leader of BYuT, Yuliya Tymoshenko appealed to the President, to prime minister Yanukovych, and to the State property fund, to react to yesterday's transfer of the greatest producer of electric power in eastern Ukraine, Dniproenergo, to companies owned by Rinat Akhmetov. [See my previous blog for background]

"Yesterday it was announced that Dniproenergo has fallen into the hands of enterprises owned by Rinat Akhmetov for almost nothing, and without any commitment for further investment," said Tymoshenko.

"So practically all of Ukraine's power generation has passed 'from under the hammer' - they acquired it practically for kopecks. And we saw how government works as one with business," added Tymoshenko.

She expressed outrage that not one central television channel in Ukraine has given adequate coverage to this crooked deal, and that there has been a total absence of reaction from any leaders of government.

In the opinion of Tymoshenko, "If this sort of thing continues further, even if there is a change of government, Akhmetov will remain the owner of Ukraine. Such monopolization should be impermissable under any circumstances," she emphasized.
She warned that, "In a month, I think, nevertheless there will be a change in government, and our political force will put in their place all of those enterprises, which are hurredly filling their pockets right now, for next to nothing."

"They will all be returned to state." assured Tymoshenko, adding, "I have never seen such brazen lawlessness as has taken place in recent months in Ukraine."

BYuT's campaign seems to be making an impression. The reputable Luhansk-based Irtafax site asks site visitors: Whose party's electorate is the most active?
To date Socialists have received 'nul points', NU-NS 18 votes, PoR 86, Communists 261, and BYuT 415. Only a bit of fun, I know, but interesting nevertheless.

Why Akhmetov sponsors PoR?

Today's 'Delo' business newspaper reports : "Half of power generating [in Ukraine] now under Akhmetov's heel - the state has handed over the country's biggest power-generating company to creditors.

Rinat Akhmetov has become owner of 32,2% of the biggest domestic power-generating company - DniproEnergo. The enterprise, whose main shareholder is the state, was forced to sell its shares to its most important creditors in order to avoid bankruptcy. Amongst these creditors were structures owned by Akhmetov.

On completion of this transaction, the state's portion of DniproEnergo will decrease to 50%, and, as a result of his new acquisition, Akhmetov will control almost half of the country's thermally generated power. Besides DniproEnergo, his companies already manage VostokEnergo. [DniproEnergo is estimated to be worth at almost $1.5 billion, and is one of five electricity generating companies in Ukraine - the others are VostokEnergo, CentralEnergo, ZakhidEnergo and DonetskEnergo.]

Anticipating what was about to take place, on 22nd June 2007 BYuT's press service released this :

"During the last months of its activity Cabinet does everything possible to appropriate the most attractive economic objects and concentrate them in the ownership of the closest comrades-in-arms, in particular those enterprises which provide light and warmth for the Ukrainian houses.

The bright evidence of this is the last decision of Yanukovych government, which allowed one of the biggest power companies in Ukraine, DniproEnergo, additional issue of shares. As a result, the state share will drop down from 76% to 50%. In this case, share of companies which are controlled by the known bilionnaire Akhmetov actually gives control over DniproEnergo management. Akhmetov’s companies beforehand bought up 8,8% of DniproEnergo capital, which allows them to break any meetings of shareholders and depreciates team shares by 87%.

The plan of actual theft from the national property of DniproEnergo foresees buying up of this company debts before other persons for the amount of $200 million and further exchange of these debts for 26% of DniproEnergo capital within the additional issue of shares, to which only companies controlled by Akhmetov will be admitted.
Cynicism and impudence of Cabinet actions are reflected in the fact that market value of the company makes at least $1 billion 750 million; 26% makes $455 million. Thus, in case of successful conducting of this transaction, our state loses about $500 million, and also control over one of the main power companies of Ukraine. Except for that, small stockholders, mainly workers of this company, will be deprived of their rights for the part of the company profit.

According to BYUT information, it is planned that the only buyer of 26% of DniproEnergo will be Donetsk Fuel Energy Company, [DTEK] which belongs to Renat Akhmetov.

In connection with this Yulia Tymoshenko bloc appeals to President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko with a requirement to stop immediately criminals who are selling out strategic economic objects of the state. We require to bring to trial the officials of Yanukovych government whose actions endanger power safety of Ukraine."

Its seems then that BYuT were absolutely correct in their prediction.

A more measured and detailed assessment was provided on June 21st 2007 by 'Kyiv Post'

"The arrival of DTEK as a strategic shareholder may benefit DniproEnergo by providing it with access to thermal coal and improving management, which has proved very efficient at the much more profitable DTEK-owned VostokEnergo.

But, they note DTEK is likely to try to take full control of DniproEnergo, thus reducing the likelihood of a strategic Western investor coming in.

As for the unknown owners of the remaining 15 percent of the shares, it’s unclear what price the will be able to get for them if DniproEnergo stock continues to fall.

Akhmetov, ranked as Ukraine’s richest man, has made serious efforts to improve the transparency and image of his SCM in the West, where he has courted financing to modernize his aging Soviet assets.

On the one hand, it wouldn’t be in his interests to spook investors. On the other, however, boosting his stake in DniproEnergo through a bargain deal could significantly increase the value of DTEK, yielding him the strongest position in the power-generation market in Ukraine’s highly industrialized eastern regions."

Today in Kryviy Rih, Tymoshenko again challenged this deal. "The question is why? On what basis? [And] why to Akmetov? I have many questions," she stated.

For Ukrainians, Honduras more popular that Russia, except in Crimea

In 1997 Russian and Ukraine signed a 20 year treaty, enabling the Russian Black sea fleet to use naval facilities in Crimea. The Russian side wants to extend the treaty, whilst the Ukrainian Ministries of Foreign Affairs and of Defence have many times complained that the Russians are not fulfilling their commitments on leasing of these naval bases.

Several days ago, an adviser from the Russian embassy in Ukraine, Vladimir Lysenko, allegedly stated that Russia could soon start to review the 1997 agreement, which affirms Ukrainian status of Sevastopol.

Press reports, e.g. in 'Segodnya' stated that according to Lysenko, the agreement could be re-examined, "if the Ukrainian authorities continue to exert pressure on the [Russian] Black Sea fleet, which is based in Crimea."

Lutsenko's remarks prompted a swift response from the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in the form of a sternly worded 'diplomatic note'.

Today the Russian ambassador in Ukraine, Viktor Chernomyrdin did some quick 'back-pedalling'.

"The adviser of the embassy could not say such a thing. This is totally inadmissible. Well, simply such a thing could not have taken place, but these thing happen... so the entire outburst - its just emotion ", emphasized Chernomyrdin.

According to Chernomyrdin, the matter may just have been published to suit someone's purpose, or was just an error.

This is a very touchy subject..

Meanwhile 'Korespondent' posts results of an opinion poll which reveals that 61% of Ukrainians are satisfied to have been born in Ukraine. 10.4% would rather have been born in Russia, less that 3% in each of France, Germany, Great Britain or the USA. The only major deviation to these figures was in the Crimean city of Simferopol, were nearly 48% would have liked to have been born in Russia, and only about 40% were happy to have been born in Ukraine.

'Koresondent' also invited its internet site visitors to take part in a straw poll , asking them, "In what country would you like to live?" Up to now, almost 2000 visitors have responded.

Nearly 48% replied in Ukraine, 2.59% in the Russian Federation, 21.06% in any EU country, USA - 8.23%, and, rather curiously, 8.39% in Honduras. On second thoughts, Honduras maybe does have attractions..

Another suspicious poisoning..

UNIAN carries a sinister story today about an unexplained poisoning of Borys Penchuk, author of 'The Donetsk Mafia', the the only book written to date describing the turf wars that took place in the early and mid '90's in Donetsk and their alleged participants. Almost 60 'businessmen' and others came to a 'sticky end' at that time - including members of Penchuk's family. Many of the surviving main players of these wars are now at the top of PoR.. Many of the businesses of the victims are now owned by the same players..

The foreword to the Russian language version can be read in English here. An updated, Ukrainian language version of the book, entitled "Donetsk mafia - reload" has just been published.

Anyhow, here's a loose translation of the UNIAN article:

"The presentation tour of the "Donetsk mafia - reload" book, which was due to take place on 21st August in Lviv and 22nd August in Lutsk, has been suspended because its author, Borys Penchuk, has been taken ill with acute poisoning.

Penchuk's health deteriorated on 20th August after his return from Zhytomyr, where a presentation of the book also took place.

Penchuk was diagnosed with poisoning, but believes that he could not have been poisoned with food because he ate nothing on that day, not even a snack. His temperature rose to 39 degrees centigrade. Penchuk underwent a medical examination in hospital where he was diagnosed with "poisoning with strong-acting substances". Experts are trying to establish what kind of toxin is in his body, but the absence of specialized equipment in Ukraine is hampering diagnosis.

Doctors note that Penchuk's condition is causing concern, and possible consequences are unknown at present."

The books are a rather haphazard collection of numerous postings from various internet sites, investigative TV broadcast transcripts, newspaper interviews, gruesome photos, and so on, but are nevertheless valuable because they provide some insight into what happened at that time. Whether any other author or participant will ever write anything better remains to be seen.

Putin and Yanuk talk of 'planes, and more?

The British 'Guardian' newspaper reports:

"Vladimir Putin announced ambitious plans to revive Russia's military power and restore its role as the world's leading producer of military aircraft yesterday. Speaking at the opening of the largest airshow in Russia's post-Soviet history, the president said he was determined to make aircraft manufacture a national priority after decades of lagging behind the west.

The remarks follow his decision last week to resume long-range missions by strategic bomber aircraft capable of hitting the US with nuclear weapons. Patrols over the Atlantic, Pacific and Arctic began last week for the first time since 1992.

Presidential aides hinted yesterday that Russia could shortly resume the production of Tu-160 and Tu-95 strategic nuclear bombers, now that the aircraft are again flying "combat missions". The bombers would be used as a "means of strategic deterrence", a presidential aide, Alexander Burutin, told Interfax.

Mr Putin said Russia would also resume the large-scale manufacture of civilian planes. "Russia has a very important goal which is to retain leadership in the production of military equipment," he said."

The only other government head attending the 'Maks-2007' airshow was Viktor Yanukovych. In total, delegations from 110 countries attended. Putin, Yanuk, and first vice- premier of the RF Sergey Ivanov who is being tipped as Putin's most likely successor, spent more than an hour together at a hurriedly arranged meeting. A planned meeting between Yanuk and RF PM Mikhail Fradkov on 20th August in Sochi, had been cancelled at short notice.

Major Ukrainian aircraft components manufacturers 'Motor-Sich' and 'Aviatsiya Ukrainy' were well represented at the airshow, and the leaders signed a memorandom of Russian-Ukrainian co-operation in aircraft manufacture.

Well, business is business..

Tymoshenko has been 'swinging her handbag' again today. She warned PM Yanukovych, minister of fuel and energy Yuriy Boyko, and chief executive of state company 'Naftohaz Ukrainy' Yevhen Bakulin that they could face criminal charges for betrayal of national interests. "I want to warn Yanukovych, Boyko and Bakulin, that the 111th article of the Criminal Codex envisages 10 to 12 years of imprisonment for betrayal of national interests of Ukraine. They will not receive any amnesty from me."

She said that they want to swap part of Ukraine's gas transport system for "undefined assets of the oil and gas complex of the Russian Federation."

Yuriy Boyko had accompanied Yanuk on yesterday's trip to see the air show..