There is loads of video evidence showing Berkut special forces sadistically beating and kicking apprehended protesters last Sunday as they lay on the floor.
Some of these appalling incidents took place inside the grounds of the President's Administration building on Bank Street where many of the protesters had been dragged their for 'special treatment'.
The link above shows dozens of Berkut and other police personnel, perhaps even staff from the PA itself, watching on indifferently, listening to the screams and watching the blood flow. Failure to intervene makes these onlookers just as culpable for the outrages as the perpetrators.
As with any important building in any capital city, the PA building roof is well loaded with web-cams. The Berkut stormtroopers must have been sure they could act with impunity.
About four dozen or more accredited journalists have also been seriously and systematically assaulted by law enforcement officers since the recent troubles began. Some of these journalists were in the Verkhovna Rada Tuesday, continuing to do their job, interviewing deputies, including those of the ruling coalition, surrealistically, with bandages wrapped around their heads and plaster casts on their arms....
The response of the Ukrainian government and the president in whose back yard some these incidents occurred, has been pathetic.
All of this just underscores the true nature of Yanukovych and his 'banda'...and provides even greater motivation to the demonstrators to stick to their ground...
p.s One of the features of the current troubles is the mass of video recordings being made. Pocket TV stations like hromadske.tv have been live streaming most dramatic footage from numerous journalists at various 'hot spots', some just using mobile phones. Yesterday one guy wandered behind police lines protecting parliament, live streaming what was going on, minutes before the vote of no confidence in the Cabinet of Ministers.
The was a temporary stage erected in the grounds of the Verkhovna Rada, and about 50 to 100 young guys, many hooded, in sports gear milling around, some hiding their faces. Lots of police and security guys were intermingled with them. On stage was Oleh Kalashnikov - a notorious, well known trouble-maker. Several cabinet ministers, including foreign minister Kozhara walked through these sinister youths to enter the parliament building.
Even more sinister, some of these thugs are from ministry of the interior security units based in Crimea - boxing instructors etc. Video evidence here.
More and more of these so-called 'titushky' are being assembled in Kyiv today.
Many have gathered in a city-centre park, and some of them are getting restless because they are not being allowed to leave their compounds by Party of Regions' supervisors.
The authorities are knowingly, systematically employing thuggish bands, if necessary, to intimidate opposition deputies and demonstrators...It's quite outrageous..
The potential for serious violence in Kyiv in the next few days is now very real...
Wednesday, December 04, 2013
Monday, December 02, 2013
Conflict resolution scenario
Following Sunday's tumultuous events in Kyiv and elsewhere my thoughts are these:
Thank goodness no-one has been killed.
It has been reported that one or two hundred demonstrators and law enforcement officers have received injuries of varying degrees, but most worryingly, several dozen of these were journalists merely doing their jobs. Nevertheless, matters have to be kept in proportion. Violence on this scale has been seen many times in other European capitals in previous years...it could have been much, much worse. [But the brutal treatment of bona fide journalists is very worrying]
What could happen next?
One possibility is suggested by OdessaTalk blog. Because of desire for quick resolution by leading oligarchs, the government in parliament may not survive a vote of no confidence as many PoR deputies jump ship.
This would be good because the heads of PM Azarov, who froze the signing of the Association Agreement, and Minister of the Interior, Zakharchenko who must take responsibility for mindless scattering of Maidan early Saturday morning triggering Sundays mass turnout, have to roll.
A reorientated parliament could reign in the powers of the president, and start running the country in a more balanced manner.
Yanukovych was planning at least two presidential terms...he might not even last one term.
The next few days are critically important...
Thank goodness no-one has been killed.
It has been reported that one or two hundred demonstrators and law enforcement officers have received injuries of varying degrees, but most worryingly, several dozen of these were journalists merely doing their jobs. Nevertheless, matters have to be kept in proportion. Violence on this scale has been seen many times in other European capitals in previous years...it could have been much, much worse. [But the brutal treatment of bona fide journalists is very worrying]
What could happen next?
One possibility is suggested by OdessaTalk blog. Because of desire for quick resolution by leading oligarchs, the government in parliament may not survive a vote of no confidence as many PoR deputies jump ship.
This would be good because the heads of PM Azarov, who froze the signing of the Association Agreement, and Minister of the Interior, Zakharchenko who must take responsibility for mindless scattering of Maidan early Saturday morning triggering Sundays mass turnout, have to roll.
A reorientated parliament could reign in the powers of the president, and start running the country in a more balanced manner.
Yanukovych was planning at least two presidential terms...he might not even last one term.
The next few days are critically important...
Sunday, December 01, 2013
Party of Regions in turmoil
Putin's last meeting with Yanukovych took place in the most secret of circumstances in an unspecified location in Russia, according to some, to prevent any leaks or eavesdropping. Even senior Party of Regions figures were not informed about what was discussed.
After the debacle in Vilnius on Friday, Party of Regions, from being, by Ukrainian standards, a disciplined party, are suddenly in turmoil, e.g. as described by 'OdessaTalk' blogger.
Several PoR 'big beasts' have resigned from the party and there are rumours 15 - 20 parliamentary deputies could go on Monday..
One of their most well known 'faces', Inna Bohoslovska, today has quite astonishingly spoken of a threat to the integrity and sovereignty of the country from Russia. She calls for the creation of a new majority in parliament, a new speaker, the dismissal of the Azarov government, calls for an extraordinary EU-Ukraine summit for the Association Agreement to be signed, and new presidential elections to be held. Otherwise she predicts bloodshed...
Head of the president's administration, Serhiy Lyovochkin has also allegedly resigned. His Inter TV station broadcast a dramatic 'ShusterLive' on Friday night, which was, temporarily brought down, when opposition leaders turned up. During the show the opposition guys were receiving text messages from Maidan, where fighting was taking place, and left. The government ministers, including deputy prime minister Vilkul, and foreign minister Kozhara were truly 'hammered'. Journalists who had been in Vilnius described the disgust expressed by European leaders behind the scenes after the non signing of the AA.
Unlike other tv channels, Lyovochkin's Inter broadcast a detailed report about the dramatic events on Maidan.
Most commentators expect another huge demo on Sunday in Kyiv..In Western Ukraine passions are running very high too.... a general strike is quite possible.
Yanukovych is scheduled to visit China on a state visit commencing 3rd December. If he goes, who knows what he will find when he returns...
So far he has given no message of hope, particularly on how the country will fare and where essential financial support will come from, post Vilnius.
After the debacle in Vilnius on Friday, Party of Regions, from being, by Ukrainian standards, a disciplined party, are suddenly in turmoil, e.g. as described by 'OdessaTalk' blogger.
Several PoR 'big beasts' have resigned from the party and there are rumours 15 - 20 parliamentary deputies could go on Monday..
One of their most well known 'faces', Inna Bohoslovska, today has quite astonishingly spoken of a threat to the integrity and sovereignty of the country from Russia. She calls for the creation of a new majority in parliament, a new speaker, the dismissal of the Azarov government, calls for an extraordinary EU-Ukraine summit for the Association Agreement to be signed, and new presidential elections to be held. Otherwise she predicts bloodshed...
Head of the president's administration, Serhiy Lyovochkin has also allegedly resigned. His Inter TV station broadcast a dramatic 'ShusterLive' on Friday night, which was, temporarily brought down, when opposition leaders turned up. During the show the opposition guys were receiving text messages from Maidan, where fighting was taking place, and left. The government ministers, including deputy prime minister Vilkul, and foreign minister Kozhara were truly 'hammered'. Journalists who had been in Vilnius described the disgust expressed by European leaders behind the scenes after the non signing of the AA.
Unlike other tv channels, Lyovochkin's Inter broadcast a detailed report about the dramatic events on Maidan.
Most commentators expect another huge demo on Sunday in Kyiv..In Western Ukraine passions are running very high too.... a general strike is quite possible.
Yanukovych is scheduled to visit China on a state visit commencing 3rd December. If he goes, who knows what he will find when he returns...
So far he has given no message of hope, particularly on how the country will fare and where essential financial support will come from, post Vilnius.
Friday, November 29, 2013
The spiv who did not come in from the cold [Update]
Good 5 minute video report from the UK's Channel 4 News
They call Yanukovych "the spiv who did not come in from the cold..."
p.s. Thousands of paid provocateurs [so called titushky] were seen loitering in parks in the centre of Kyiv today.
Were it not for warnings by the US ambassador about serious consequences if force were used against the participants of the EuroMaidan, there may well have been serious bloodshed.
These provocateurs, whose movements were not hindered by law enforcement agencies, were bussed from far and wide in dozens and dozens of buses. This was a well-organised and costly operation - it is inconceivable that the authorities were not in some way involved. Can there be a better illustration of the kind of regime that is currently in power in Ukraine? That would use such menacing thugs against students from the country's best universities, children of the elite - the flower of the nation.
Saturday morning update: Most regrettably, there now has been serious bloodshed, the process of Lukashenkisation has began. There are rumours of splits amongst Yanukovych's advisers..perhaps this will temper future events. The head of the president's administration may have submitted his resignation. Also last night's 'ShusterLive' was paused, then delayed for a while during behind the scenes wrangling...
They call Yanukovych "the spiv who did not come in from the cold..."
p.s. Thousands of paid provocateurs [so called titushky] were seen loitering in parks in the centre of Kyiv today.
Were it not for warnings by the US ambassador about serious consequences if force were used against the participants of the EuroMaidan, there may well have been serious bloodshed.
These provocateurs, whose movements were not hindered by law enforcement agencies, were bussed from far and wide in dozens and dozens of buses. This was a well-organised and costly operation - it is inconceivable that the authorities were not in some way involved. Can there be a better illustration of the kind of regime that is currently in power in Ukraine? That would use such menacing thugs against students from the country's best universities, children of the elite - the flower of the nation.
Saturday morning update: Most regrettably, there now has been serious bloodshed, the process of Lukashenkisation has began. There are rumours of splits amongst Yanukovych's advisers..perhaps this will temper future events. The head of the president's administration may have submitted his resignation. Also last night's 'ShusterLive' was paused, then delayed for a while during behind the scenes wrangling...
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
Yanukovych's cock-eyed logic
Today Yanukovych, staged a television interview.
"The President emphasized that Ukraine would continue its European integration course.
“We will go our own way, we will do everything for Ukraine to become economically stronger,”
"As soon as we reach that level [when we are competitive] which will be comfortable for us and which meets our interests, when we will get agreement [with the EU] on normal terms, then we will conduct a discussion on signing [ the Association Agreement]. When will this be...time will tell."
[My translation - The presidential website's official imo 'ropey' translation also at the link above].
So when Ukraine sorts out it problems with the oh so generous help of Russia, Yanukovych will sign the AA with the EU.
In other words, according to Yanukovych the Russians are going to assist Ukraine improve its economy. As soon at the economy gets better, it's good bye Russia, hello EU... Are you kidding?
The Russian will do everything possible to trash the Ukrainian economy even further....
You have to jump now pal...
p.s. Yanukovych also stressed: "that not less than 20 billion EUR per year were necessary for Ukrainian economy to switch to the European standards. “Overall, about 160 billion EUR are necessary until 2017,” he said.
Just a minute....2014, 2015, 2016, 2017...that's four years.....times 20 billion....hmmm...doesn't that make 80 Billion? Forgot his calculator? Needs to take his shoes and socks off to count above 10?
No wonder the country is in such a mess...
"The President emphasized that Ukraine would continue its European integration course.
“We will go our own way, we will do everything for Ukraine to become economically stronger,”
[My translation - The presidential website's official imo 'ropey' translation also at the link above].
So when Ukraine sorts out it problems with the oh so generous help of Russia, Yanukovych will sign the AA with the EU.
In other words, according to Yanukovych the Russians are going to assist Ukraine improve its economy. As soon at the economy gets better, it's good bye Russia, hello EU... Are you kidding?
The Russian will do everything possible to trash the Ukrainian economy even further....
You have to jump now pal...
p.s. Yanukovych also stressed: "that not less than 20 billion EUR per year were necessary for Ukrainian economy to switch to the European standards. “Overall, about 160 billion EUR are necessary until 2017,” he said.
Just a minute....2014, 2015, 2016, 2017...that's four years.....times 20 billion....hmmm...doesn't that make 80 Billion? Forgot his calculator? Needs to take his shoes and socks off to count above 10?
No wonder the country is in such a mess...
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
Putin will give nothing [update]
Putin has always behaved as a bully toward Ukraine. He has forced Ukraine, both under presidents Yushchenko and Yanukovych to allegedly pay the highest prices in Europe for gas. Since the summer Putin has conducted a trade war against Ukrainian importers..And as everyone knows, when a bully smells weakness the bullying inevitably increases...
Yanukovych has sat in the middle of the see saw playing off Russia on one end against the EU on the other. Now the president has pushed the EU off their end, Ukraine will be even more vulnerable to Putin's demands.
Russia has its own financial woes and capital is short. There are rumours that the Russian state pension fund will soon start raiding the country's private pension funds. Any loans from Russia will have to be paid for, as a former British PM once said, by Ukraine "selling off the family silver". There is no guarantee exports from Ukraine to Russia will pick up either.
What of the Europeans? The chief negotiators of the European Union and Ukraine initialled the text of the Association Agreement, which included provisions on the establishment of a DCFTA about nine months ago. Everything was agreed and ready ...then last week's dramatic volte-face by the Ukrainian side..
Yanukovych is as a result can now be considered 'damaged goods' - an unreliable and unpredictable interlocutor. Next autumn Europarliamentary elections take place. The new boys will not be as friendly and understanding as the current lot.
There are reports that despite this mess, behind the scenes negotiations are still taking place between Ukraine and the EU.
Rinat Akmetov is allegedly suggesting to Yanukovych that if the EU provides 7-8 Bn Euro stabilisation money and improves quotas for Ukrainian metallurgical products, a deal could still theoretically be done in Vilnius later this week. His big-selling newspaper, 'Segodnya', unlike state broadcasters, seems to have been most objective when reporting recent events.
I watched portions of yesterday's anti-maidan. The PoR speakers....tired political geriatrics like Anatoliy Kinakh, looked like yesterday's men. Half of the audience that had gathered had their backs to them as they spoke and stuttered...they all dispersed very quickly..
As for the true Euromaidans, these are student-dominated. A countrywide general students strike is currently being seriously discussed; if it comes to fruition, an significant new civic force will have been created.
The president's first official response to Thursday's Cabinet of Ministers' bombshell [poorly translated here] is vague and confusing waffle. The freezing of the AA is not mentioned at all.
He says: "The will of Ukrainian citizens have always been, is and will be decisive for every my decision." Well, we will see..
p.s. Petro Poroshenko has done a half hour interview on BBC 24's HARDtalk with the excellent Stephen Sackur, who was at the recent YES summit. It may be available here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b03mkby1
Yanukovych has sat in the middle of the see saw playing off Russia on one end against the EU on the other. Now the president has pushed the EU off their end, Ukraine will be even more vulnerable to Putin's demands.
Russia has its own financial woes and capital is short. There are rumours that the Russian state pension fund will soon start raiding the country's private pension funds. Any loans from Russia will have to be paid for, as a former British PM once said, by Ukraine "selling off the family silver". There is no guarantee exports from Ukraine to Russia will pick up either.
What of the Europeans? The chief negotiators of the European Union and Ukraine initialled the text of the Association Agreement, which included provisions on the establishment of a DCFTA about nine months ago. Everything was agreed and ready ...then last week's dramatic volte-face by the Ukrainian side..
Yanukovych is as a result can now be considered 'damaged goods' - an unreliable and unpredictable interlocutor. Next autumn Europarliamentary elections take place. The new boys will not be as friendly and understanding as the current lot.
There are reports that despite this mess, behind the scenes negotiations are still taking place between Ukraine and the EU.
Rinat Akmetov is allegedly suggesting to Yanukovych that if the EU provides 7-8 Bn Euro stabilisation money and improves quotas for Ukrainian metallurgical products, a deal could still theoretically be done in Vilnius later this week. His big-selling newspaper, 'Segodnya', unlike state broadcasters, seems to have been most objective when reporting recent events.
I watched portions of yesterday's anti-maidan. The PoR speakers....tired political geriatrics like Anatoliy Kinakh, looked like yesterday's men. Half of the audience that had gathered had their backs to them as they spoke and stuttered...they all dispersed very quickly..
As for the true Euromaidans, these are student-dominated. A countrywide general students strike is currently being seriously discussed; if it comes to fruition, an significant new civic force will have been created.
The president's first official response to Thursday's Cabinet of Ministers' bombshell [poorly translated here] is vague and confusing waffle. The freezing of the AA is not mentioned at all.
He says: "The will of Ukrainian citizens have always been, is and will be decisive for every my decision." Well, we will see..
p.s. Petro Poroshenko has done a half hour interview on BBC 24's HARDtalk with the excellent Stephen Sackur, who was at the recent YES summit. It may be available here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b03mkby1
Sunday, November 24, 2013
Loss of hope drives demonstrators
Today, 24 November, was a watershed day. Had only 10 or 15 thousand turned out to support today's pro-EU demonstration Yanukovych and his goverment could sleep easy. The massive turnout was a surprise to the organisers, the authorities, and to those who went along.
Why did so many turn out? Thier hopes for a better tomorrow resulting from closer ties with wealthy and decent western neighbours were crushed by Thursday's cabinet of ministers' announcement that they were putting a freeze the Association Agreement deal with the EU planned to be signed in Vilnius later this week.
I watched Friday's ShusterLive during which an old and tired PM Azarov gave a weak and unconvincing explanation for the decision. There was a sense of resignation hanging in the air. A good politician would have offered some crumbs of comfort...some positive spin...at least one plus point for the decision. But there was none of this. It was all defeatist, the tone negative..He looked a loser....Someone sent out to take the flak for his boss Yanukovych.. [Who seems to have locked himself into his bathroom in Mezhyhirya last Thursday with his backside glued onto his gold toilet.]
In contrast, most of those present at today's events were young, under 30, students, young families etc.
If the pro-EU demos continue, Azarov has already hinted they will be scattered.
But you cannot fight off the inevitable – A Ukrainian-Russian divorce. And the young always win out in the end.
Those supporting today's actions in Kyiv and other cities have been revitalised and emboldened.
Re-elections are to take place on 15 December 2013 in seven constituencies were results in last autumn's parliamentary elections were suspect, so the political temperature in the country will remain hot.
Most significantly, the Ukrainian pull-out of the AA signing has created a huge expanse of clear blue water in the policies of the government parties and the opposition. It is generally accepted that a majority of Ukrainians are for closer ties with the EU...Yanukovych has therefore two options, 'Lukashenkisation', or lose the 2015 presidential elections..
The EU and the USA will be looking at lists containing the names of prominent Ukrainian pro-government supporters, their property and bank accounts in the west in case things get ugly, which they may well do...
A sense of dashed hopes, and a dread of a return to a new USSR will most likely fuel more protests.
p.s. Azarov hinted in an interview on Russian tv that today's demonstrations may have been 'financed'..what cheek! Thousands of youths of sporting appearance [so-called Titushky'] were seen congregating near the president's administration and in a central park today. When challenged, they turned away and refused to answer journalists' questions..Who is financing these meatheads?
He has also suggested that if western leaders care so much for Tymoshenko, they should pay her fine and make good the loses she allegedly caused the country by her bad decisions. What cheek! There is widespread belief that she was wrongfully imprisoned and her trial was a farce. They slap absurd politically motivated charges against her, then propose western countries pay the massive fine. Crude extortion or what? Only a dumb Donetsk gangster could make such a suggestion...
p.p.s. At time of writing it seems the silovyky have started swinging their sticks...could get ugly...so many brave, bright-eyed young people still on 'Evropeyska ploshcha'.
Why did so many turn out? Thier hopes for a better tomorrow resulting from closer ties with wealthy and decent western neighbours were crushed by Thursday's cabinet of ministers' announcement that they were putting a freeze the Association Agreement deal with the EU planned to be signed in Vilnius later this week.
I watched Friday's ShusterLive during which an old and tired PM Azarov gave a weak and unconvincing explanation for the decision. There was a sense of resignation hanging in the air. A good politician would have offered some crumbs of comfort...some positive spin...at least one plus point for the decision. But there was none of this. It was all defeatist, the tone negative..He looked a loser....Someone sent out to take the flak for his boss Yanukovych.. [Who seems to have locked himself into his bathroom in Mezhyhirya last Thursday with his backside glued onto his gold toilet.]
In contrast, most of those present at today's events were young, under 30, students, young families etc.
If the pro-EU demos continue, Azarov has already hinted they will be scattered.
But you cannot fight off the inevitable – A Ukrainian-Russian divorce. And the young always win out in the end.
Those supporting today's actions in Kyiv and other cities have been revitalised and emboldened.
Re-elections are to take place on 15 December 2013 in seven constituencies were results in last autumn's parliamentary elections were suspect, so the political temperature in the country will remain hot.
Most significantly, the Ukrainian pull-out of the AA signing has created a huge expanse of clear blue water in the policies of the government parties and the opposition. It is generally accepted that a majority of Ukrainians are for closer ties with the EU...Yanukovych has therefore two options, 'Lukashenkisation', or lose the 2015 presidential elections..
The EU and the USA will be looking at lists containing the names of prominent Ukrainian pro-government supporters, their property and bank accounts in the west in case things get ugly, which they may well do...
A sense of dashed hopes, and a dread of a return to a new USSR will most likely fuel more protests.
p.s. Azarov hinted in an interview on Russian tv that today's demonstrations may have been 'financed'..what cheek! Thousands of youths of sporting appearance [so-called Titushky'] were seen congregating near the president's administration and in a central park today. When challenged, they turned away and refused to answer journalists' questions..Who is financing these meatheads?
He has also suggested that if western leaders care so much for Tymoshenko, they should pay her fine and make good the loses she allegedly caused the country by her bad decisions. What cheek! There is widespread belief that she was wrongfully imprisoned and her trial was a farce. They slap absurd politically motivated charges against her, then propose western countries pay the massive fine. Crude extortion or what? Only a dumb Donetsk gangster could make such a suggestion...
p.p.s. At time of writing it seems the silovyky have started swinging their sticks...could get ugly...so many brave, bright-eyed young people still on 'Evropeyska ploshcha'.
Friday, November 22, 2013
Will there be a Euro-Maidan?
This from a blogger worth following - Odessatalk.com :
"[Yesterday]..around 8pm, the Ukraine Truth ['Ukrainska Pravda'] political journalist Mustafa Nayem [see photo] on both twitter and Facebook called for a spontaneous protest in support of the signing of the agreement.
The twitter hashtag of #Евромайдан (Euromaidan) was born and became the top ranking hashtag on the Ukrainian twitter rankings within an hour.
Numbers vary as to those who turned out in Kyiv, ranging from 500 to 1500 according to those present and tweeting.
An impressive number for a 2 hour lead-in time of such a spontaneous call – or considering that the call was made via social media alone, the place where millions of Ukrainian “20 – 30 somethings” who all undoubtedly “get it” when it comes to European integration, maybe not as impressive as you would expect?"
The authorities are taking 'the necessary measures already'.
Thursday, November 21, 2013
Boyko serving two masters
Deputy prime minister Yuriy Boyko today said: "We did not get a clear signal from our European partners that the losses that we have experienced over the past four months, [i.e. losses caused by the trade war commenced by Russia and other CIS states against Ukraine to 'persuade' them not to go westward] will be compensated. The country cannot afford this, hence today's resolution [to pull the plug on the AA deal in Vinius]."
He claimed since August this year, these losses have been of the order of $4-5 Bn.
What a nerve! He is a cabinet member considered to be very close to the Kremlin, a crooked member Firtash's pro-Moscow gas lobby, and the main interlocutor between Kyiv and Moscow in recent months.
Instead of working hard to protect his country's interest from this trade assault, Boyko is saying Ukraine has halted its progress along its Euro-integrational path because the EU will not compensate Ukraine for Russia's hostile actions...What a cheap chiseller...
And if the Europeans did pay up, where would the money go? Into the pockets of the those who artificially created this trade war in the first place - Boyko and Putin?
They really do take the Europeans for naive mugs...
It is your blogger's view today's turn of events will be taken very badly by the Europeans in the days to come. Up until today statements from them, and from the US have been reasonably positive, admittedly through gritted teeth, and the deal was certainly far from dead. Yanukovych will attempt to push the blame on Russia for forcing his hand - "I had no choice", but my view is the EU will not buy this.
p.s. the first link includes a video of Boyko making his statement. He briefly rubs his nose... body language readers frequently equate this with duplicity and lying...
He claimed since August this year, these losses have been of the order of $4-5 Bn.
What a nerve! He is a cabinet member considered to be very close to the Kremlin, a crooked member Firtash's pro-Moscow gas lobby, and the main interlocutor between Kyiv and Moscow in recent months.
Instead of working hard to protect his country's interest from this trade assault, Boyko is saying Ukraine has halted its progress along its Euro-integrational path because the EU will not compensate Ukraine for Russia's hostile actions...What a cheap chiseller...
And if the Europeans did pay up, where would the money go? Into the pockets of the those who artificially created this trade war in the first place - Boyko and Putin?
They really do take the Europeans for naive mugs...
It is your blogger's view today's turn of events will be taken very badly by the Europeans in the days to come. Up until today statements from them, and from the US have been reasonably positive, admittedly through gritted teeth, and the deal was certainly far from dead. Yanukovych will attempt to push the blame on Russia for forcing his hand - "I had no choice", but my view is the EU will not buy this.
p.s. the first link includes a video of Boyko making his statement. He briefly rubs his nose... body language readers frequently equate this with duplicity and lying...
$20Bn and 'the bird' can fly
It is almost a week since my last blog. Circumstantial evidence, unattributed reports, and the mood music of party media spokesmen all seem to confirm that a EU/Ukraine deal will, most likely, not be struck at the end of the month.
E.g. this recent 'Kyiv Post' report : "Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory" by Katya Gorchinskaya, is very gloomy..
'RBK' today report that according to their sources no deal will be struck.
I could go on...
In parliament, a committee of deputies attempting to formulate an agreeable law enabling prisoners [i..e Tymoshenko], to be released for medical treatment abroad, have been going round in never ending circles. Opposition deputies will not leave the table lest they be accused of scuppering the deal. However, this did not prevent about 70 - 80 PoR deputies from flying to Paris on expenses yesterday for the France - Ukraine World Cup qualifying soccer match.....
In their negotiations with the EU, Ukrainians are demanding and expecting the same kind of sums Poland receives from the EU....[ e.g. over the next seven years 73 billion euros of European Union money has been allocated to that country. Source]
'Kommentarii' claims, for the Ukrainian side: "$20Bn would be an acceptable price for signing of the Association Agreement"
So that's the bottom line: $20Bn and 'the bird' can fly out her cage...
For the EU this is unrealistic, considering Ukraine's status vis a vis the EU, and the level of internal corruption. Any money that is provided needs to be doled out piecemeal and closely monitored; it will also be linked to unpalatable reform.
Yanukovych [like his predecessor Yushchenko] is a lazy politician who likes comfort, and making lots of money..not one for directing historical watershed political events. In the remote likelihood of AA being signed there will be piles and piles of stuff to do..years of hard work for the government..introducing unpalatable reforms, cutting out the insider deals, etc.
My guess is that EU leaders are beginning to realise Yanuk, Azarov and the rest of this mob are not really up to this task. How much more humiliation are they going to take?
E.g. this recent 'Kyiv Post' report : "Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory" by Katya Gorchinskaya, is very gloomy..
'RBK' today report that according to their sources no deal will be struck.
I could go on...
In parliament, a committee of deputies attempting to formulate an agreeable law enabling prisoners [i..e Tymoshenko], to be released for medical treatment abroad, have been going round in never ending circles. Opposition deputies will not leave the table lest they be accused of scuppering the deal. However, this did not prevent about 70 - 80 PoR deputies from flying to Paris on expenses yesterday for the France - Ukraine World Cup qualifying soccer match.....
In their negotiations with the EU, Ukrainians are demanding and expecting the same kind of sums Poland receives from the EU....[ e.g. over the next seven years 73 billion euros of European Union money has been allocated to that country. Source]
'Kommentarii' claims, for the Ukrainian side: "$20Bn would be an acceptable price for signing of the Association Agreement"
So that's the bottom line: $20Bn and 'the bird' can fly out her cage...
For the EU this is unrealistic, considering Ukraine's status vis a vis the EU, and the level of internal corruption. Any money that is provided needs to be doled out piecemeal and closely monitored; it will also be linked to unpalatable reform.
Yanukovych [like his predecessor Yushchenko] is a lazy politician who likes comfort, and making lots of money..not one for directing historical watershed political events. In the remote likelihood of AA being signed there will be piles and piles of stuff to do..years of hard work for the government..introducing unpalatable reforms, cutting out the insider deals, etc.
My guess is that EU leaders are beginning to realise Yanuk, Azarov and the rest of this mob are not really up to this task. How much more humiliation are they going to take?
Thursday, November 14, 2013
Bandits to the end
Yanukovych and his administration from the very beginning have not been negotiating in good faith with the EU on the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement and Deep and the Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements which are set to be signed at the end of this month in Vilnius.
The deals were written up, on the table and 'ready to go' in December 2011.
Since then Yanukovych has strung the EU along by obfuscating any attempt to resolve the main stumbling block preventing success - the ending of selective justice i.e. the politically motivated judicial persecution of political opponents, in particular Yulia Tymoshenko.
With just a few days to go, has still has not delivered.
Just a bad, laws on electoral practice and the functioning of prosecutor's office - key demands of the EU, have not been finalised in parliament despite constant assurances everything would be neatly tied up by now.
Two weeks ago, a most perceptible change in direction occurred - the compass needle indicating Ukraine's vector veered violently from a westward direction to the northern direction.
If Yanuk were determined to clinch the EU deal he would be saying: "Sorry folks, just cannot do anything on the Tymo situation... on everything..everything else, we will do all we can...we really, really want this to deal to fly...
But in the last two weeks there has been none of this. The tone from Yanuk's talking heads have been: "We are being pressurised by Moscow, by Europe, by the opposition. We will be financially squeezed whatever happens. Only our great leader, the wonderful and magnificent Yanukovych is capable of steering us through these hazards to the rosy sunlit future of which we are worthy... In other words, east and west - they are just as bad - out to screw us...the unspoken agenda being :We'll continue our balancing act...bridge between east and west etc.
Two weeks ago a fresh attempt to recover Tymoshenko's "stolen money" was suddenly pulled out of the hat by the ministry of revenues and their British lawyers.
This week it was Tymoshenko's principal defence lawyer Serhiy Vlasenko being harrassed by the prosecutor-general's office, no less, with criminal charges of a 'domestic' nature involving his former wife. [A sledgehammer to crack a nut..]
It is not unreasonable, considering the critical stage of negotiations, this is part of a planned strategy to piss off the EU leaders even more.
We have the sorry spectacle of parliamentary deputies still playing out cards of a long-lost game - that of trying to pass a law enabling sick prisoners to be treated abroad.
Now there are sudden stern demands being made to the EU for financial 'compensators' ..
From PoR's official site:'
"[the EU] mission mistakenly believe that the main problematic issue in the way the Association Agreement with the EU - issues of Yulia Tymoshenko. In Ukraine today, the main problem that we have to solve with our European partners - the question of finding ways of compensation of losses from Ukraine open market for EU goods and the possible actions of Russia ",
Kostiantyn Yelisieiev, Ambassador of Ukraine to the EU, in a letter to the FT today declares, "there is no room for the “wait-and-see” approach. The EU must act, offering concrete types of support to Ukraine. To name a few: full backing of the renewal of Ukraine-IMF co-operation; rendering ambitious macro-financial assistance; the immediate opening of EU markets for the Ukrainian products meeting the relevant standards; adapting EU assistance to the needs of proper implementation of further reforms under the association agreement; disbursing financial resources for modernisation of Ukrainian Gas Transmission System and preventing the politically motivated South Stream gas project; lifting the outdated anti-dumping measures against Ukrainian exports which remain in place since the end of the 20th century." [Pdf here]
Now not only will they not release Tymo...but they want big money too...Money earned by the hard work and toil of European workers.
Months and months of diligent work by hundreds of economists and lawyers went into the writing of the hugely detailed AA and DCFTA documents where all financial aspects were thoroughly dealt with to the satisfaction of all sides.
Now, all of a sudden, its give us the money or else....and don't even mention Tymoshenko.
Lately there have been rumours that the EU would do a deal on the AA even if she remains behind bars.
Yanukovych has, in all probability, already decided to scuttle the EU deal. Have these rumours triggered new demands set before the EU for 'money up front' so Yanukovych can say, even if the EU crumble on Tymoshenko: "You see, they won't give us any money either..they expect us to take an economic hit for their benefit...it's all their fault"?
Yelisieiev in his FT letter mentions 'common values' These people have no values at all...only calculators [see previous blog]..
Bandits to the end..
The deals were written up, on the table and 'ready to go' in December 2011.
Since then Yanukovych has strung the EU along by obfuscating any attempt to resolve the main stumbling block preventing success - the ending of selective justice i.e. the politically motivated judicial persecution of political opponents, in particular Yulia Tymoshenko.
With just a few days to go, has still has not delivered.
Just a bad, laws on electoral practice and the functioning of prosecutor's office - key demands of the EU, have not been finalised in parliament despite constant assurances everything would be neatly tied up by now.
Two weeks ago, a most perceptible change in direction occurred - the compass needle indicating Ukraine's vector veered violently from a westward direction to the northern direction.
If Yanuk were determined to clinch the EU deal he would be saying: "Sorry folks, just cannot do anything on the Tymo situation... on everything..everything else, we will do all we can...we really, really want this to deal to fly...
But in the last two weeks there has been none of this. The tone from Yanuk's talking heads have been: "We are being pressurised by Moscow, by Europe, by the opposition. We will be financially squeezed whatever happens. Only our great leader, the wonderful and magnificent Yanukovych is capable of steering us through these hazards to the rosy sunlit future of which we are worthy... In other words, east and west - they are just as bad - out to screw us...the unspoken agenda being :We'll continue our balancing act...bridge between east and west etc.
Two weeks ago a fresh attempt to recover Tymoshenko's "stolen money" was suddenly pulled out of the hat by the ministry of revenues and their British lawyers.
This week it was Tymoshenko's principal defence lawyer Serhiy Vlasenko being harrassed by the prosecutor-general's office, no less, with criminal charges of a 'domestic' nature involving his former wife. [A sledgehammer to crack a nut..]
It is not unreasonable, considering the critical stage of negotiations, this is part of a planned strategy to piss off the EU leaders even more.
We have the sorry spectacle of parliamentary deputies still playing out cards of a long-lost game - that of trying to pass a law enabling sick prisoners to be treated abroad.
Now there are sudden stern demands being made to the EU for financial 'compensators' ..
From PoR's official site:'
"[the EU] mission mistakenly believe that the main problematic issue in the way the Association Agreement with the EU - issues of Yulia Tymoshenko. In Ukraine today, the main problem that we have to solve with our European partners - the question of finding ways of compensation of losses from Ukraine open market for EU goods and the possible actions of Russia ",
Kostiantyn Yelisieiev, Ambassador of Ukraine to the EU, in a letter to the FT today declares, "there is no room for the “wait-and-see” approach. The EU must act, offering concrete types of support to Ukraine. To name a few: full backing of the renewal of Ukraine-IMF co-operation; rendering ambitious macro-financial assistance; the immediate opening of EU markets for the Ukrainian products meeting the relevant standards; adapting EU assistance to the needs of proper implementation of further reforms under the association agreement; disbursing financial resources for modernisation of Ukrainian Gas Transmission System and preventing the politically motivated South Stream gas project; lifting the outdated anti-dumping measures against Ukrainian exports which remain in place since the end of the 20th century." [Pdf here]
Now not only will they not release Tymo...but they want big money too...Money earned by the hard work and toil of European workers.
Months and months of diligent work by hundreds of economists and lawyers went into the writing of the hugely detailed AA and DCFTA documents where all financial aspects were thoroughly dealt with to the satisfaction of all sides.
Now, all of a sudden, its give us the money or else....and don't even mention Tymoshenko.
Lately there have been rumours that the EU would do a deal on the AA even if she remains behind bars.
Yanukovych has, in all probability, already decided to scuttle the EU deal. Have these rumours triggered new demands set before the EU for 'money up front' so Yanukovych can say, even if the EU crumble on Tymoshenko: "You see, they won't give us any money either..they expect us to take an economic hit for their benefit...it's all their fault"?
Yelisieiev in his FT letter mentions 'common values' These people have no values at all...only calculators [see previous blog]..
Bandits to the end..
Monday, November 11, 2013
Ukraine mentally still in Eurasia, not in Europe
I really liked this op-ed piece by Vitaliy Portnikov in 'Liga.net, entitled "Civilization of the calculator. The process of association with the EU looks pathetic"
Here's a loose translation:
Right from the start there have never been any aspirations in Ukraine to achieve EU values. This is why Ukraine has become a laughing stock, rather than any reluctance by Yanukovych to release Tymoshenko,
The sorry tale of the signing of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, from being an evolving political process has today become pure guesswork. To sign - not to sign, release - not to release, to vote - not to vote, to fly to Moscow - not to fly ... It looks pretty pathetic because it demonstrates to our European partners that there was no political process associated with the desire in Ukraine to aspire to the values a united Europe right from the very beginning.
And that is why Ukraine has been exposed to ridicule in front of the entire civilized world - not just because of the reluctance of Viktor Yanukovych to release Tymoshenko.
Actually, if Ukraine had really been interested in European values, the problem around the Tymoshenko case would not have arisen at all, because there would never have been a criminal case activated and co-ordinated by presidential administration in the first place. The crimes for which she was tried and sentenced simply do not exist in the European model of law.
But in Ukraine all issues are resolved with the help of a calculator, which amongst the political pseudo-elites in our society has successfully replaced the Bible, the Constitution.. and European values.
For nearly a year the government has been calculating, where is more profitable - in Europe or Eurasia. More precisely, who will it be easier to fool - the Europeans or the Russians. There in no understanding that value systems cannot be compared with the aid of a calculator. Even any decision on Tymoshenko will eventually be made on a pure calculation..how many votes will be gained or lost by this in the 2015 presidential elections.
Because the average Ukrainian also merely weighs up the gains [or losses] of a possible association agreement with the EU using a calculator, there has been no mass demonstrations in support of it. Even in the event of the failure to sign the agreement supporters may gather at mass meetings and revitalise the political situation in the country, but it still will not be in support of a European vector, but rather a protest against Yanukovych.
If Europeans lived in our country rallies in support of the AA would be taking place right now, irrespective of any opposition party.
Ukraine is separated today from the European Union by only the narrow strip of a state border. In fact it is separated from civilization by a ditch whose depth Ukraine's residents and politicians, armed with calculators, cannot even comprehend.
And to the East there are lots of boundary markers - but no ditch. Everything is the same as in Ukraine, just with more oil and gas.
This is the tragedy of Ukrainian independence: to proclaim statehood was much easier than to fill it with a sense of civilisational choice. All attempts to do this continue to revolve around political rants, lies, mayhem... and a calculator.
Here's a loose translation:
Right from the start there have never been any aspirations in Ukraine to achieve EU values. This is why Ukraine has become a laughing stock, rather than any reluctance by Yanukovych to release Tymoshenko,
The sorry tale of the signing of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, from being an evolving political process has today become pure guesswork. To sign - not to sign, release - not to release, to vote - not to vote, to fly to Moscow - not to fly ... It looks pretty pathetic because it demonstrates to our European partners that there was no political process associated with the desire in Ukraine to aspire to the values a united Europe right from the very beginning.
And that is why Ukraine has been exposed to ridicule in front of the entire civilized world - not just because of the reluctance of Viktor Yanukovych to release Tymoshenko.
Actually, if Ukraine had really been interested in European values, the problem around the Tymoshenko case would not have arisen at all, because there would never have been a criminal case activated and co-ordinated by presidential administration in the first place. The crimes for which she was tried and sentenced simply do not exist in the European model of law.
But in Ukraine all issues are resolved with the help of a calculator, which amongst the political pseudo-elites in our society has successfully replaced the Bible, the Constitution.. and European values.
For nearly a year the government has been calculating, where is more profitable - in Europe or Eurasia. More precisely, who will it be easier to fool - the Europeans or the Russians. There in no understanding that value systems cannot be compared with the aid of a calculator. Even any decision on Tymoshenko will eventually be made on a pure calculation..how many votes will be gained or lost by this in the 2015 presidential elections.
Because the average Ukrainian also merely weighs up the gains [or losses] of a possible association agreement with the EU using a calculator, there has been no mass demonstrations in support of it. Even in the event of the failure to sign the agreement supporters may gather at mass meetings and revitalise the political situation in the country, but it still will not be in support of a European vector, but rather a protest against Yanukovych.
If Europeans lived in our country rallies in support of the AA would be taking place right now, irrespective of any opposition party.
Ukraine is separated today from the European Union by only the narrow strip of a state border. In fact it is separated from civilization by a ditch whose depth Ukraine's residents and politicians, armed with calculators, cannot even comprehend.
And to the East there are lots of boundary markers - but no ditch. Everything is the same as in Ukraine, just with more oil and gas.
This is the tragedy of Ukrainian independence: to proclaim statehood was much easier than to fill it with a sense of civilisational choice. All attempts to do this continue to revolve around political rants, lies, mayhem... and a calculator.
Friday, November 08, 2013
Explanation for impasse on Tymoshenko lies in gangster mentality of Ukraine's leaders
An explanation for the war of nerves between the EU and Yanukovych which is taking place over the release of Yulia Tymoshenko can be found in Yanukovych's gangster mentality and world view. He spent his formative years as a street gang leader immersed in a full-blown criminal environment, and was sentenced twice for crimes of violence.
He observes the enormous efforts by the EU to get Tymoshenko released - a person he and many other misogynistic Ukrainian politicians consider to be just a cheap tart/swindler who achieved everything by smooth-talking and wiggling her arse. For the Yanukovych's of this world women serve only one purpose...
He thinks, hey, if they care so much for her, then she really must be a most valuable piece of merchandise. I can get plenty for her in any trade-off, so I'm going to play it really tough. Hence the absurd and illogical demands that Tymoshenko [or allegedly Angela Merkel] pay a gigantic $200 million fine. This, despite Tymoshenko never being accused of gaining personally for the 2009 gas deal she allegedly screwed up on, for which she was sentenced.
Problem is, now he may have gone too far, run out of track, and really pissed the Europeans off - the opportunity may have been missed.
It is now unlikely that a solution to the Tymoshenko problem will be found in parliament. Inna Bohoslovska, the most voxiferous of Tymoshenko's critics, whom even chased the former PM around a television studio during a live broadcast, is one of the PoR members of an committee "trying to resolve [ho,ho]" the issue by cobbling together a new draft law.
Bohoslovska, in her blog, today says: "The great historic mission - Ukraine's rapprochement with the European family has been reduced to dirty political speculation surrounding the big political opportunist [spekulant] Tymoshenko." So we knows which way she will vote...
Other committee members say it's already too late anyhow.
As I have previously posted, Yanukovch "knows, that if he indeed wants to take the Euro-route, he can, in extremis, at the the last moment, pardon Tymoshenko or release her for treatment by signing an ukaz. It will then be 'job done'."
And if she remains in jail, he still possess a valuable package for possible use in any trade-off further down the line.
Yanukovych, and his pals resemble a gang of thugs who have kidnapped a woman hostage. Having 'served her purpose', they know they can always dump the her out of the back of the truck at the door of the victim's family...and have a good laugh about it on the drive home..
He observes the enormous efforts by the EU to get Tymoshenko released - a person he and many other misogynistic Ukrainian politicians consider to be just a cheap tart/swindler who achieved everything by smooth-talking and wiggling her arse. For the Yanukovych's of this world women serve only one purpose...
He thinks, hey, if they care so much for her, then she really must be a most valuable piece of merchandise. I can get plenty for her in any trade-off, so I'm going to play it really tough. Hence the absurd and illogical demands that Tymoshenko [or allegedly Angela Merkel] pay a gigantic $200 million fine. This, despite Tymoshenko never being accused of gaining personally for the 2009 gas deal she allegedly screwed up on, for which she was sentenced.
Problem is, now he may have gone too far, run out of track, and really pissed the Europeans off - the opportunity may have been missed.
It is now unlikely that a solution to the Tymoshenko problem will be found in parliament. Inna Bohoslovska, the most voxiferous of Tymoshenko's critics, whom even chased the former PM around a television studio during a live broadcast, is one of the PoR members of an committee "trying to resolve [ho,ho]" the issue by cobbling together a new draft law.
Bohoslovska, in her blog, today says: "The great historic mission - Ukraine's rapprochement with the European family has been reduced to dirty political speculation surrounding the big political opportunist [spekulant] Tymoshenko." So we knows which way she will vote...
Other committee members say it's already too late anyhow.
As I have previously posted, Yanukovch "knows, that if he indeed wants to take the Euro-route, he can, in extremis, at the the last moment, pardon Tymoshenko or release her for treatment by signing an ukaz. It will then be 'job done'."
And if she remains in jail, he still possess a valuable package for possible use in any trade-off further down the line.
Yanukovych, and his pals resemble a gang of thugs who have kidnapped a woman hostage. Having 'served her purpose', they know they can always dump the her out of the back of the truck at the door of the victim's family...and have a good laugh about it on the drive home..
President showing astonishing lack of leadership
'Deputies in Ukraine's parliament squabbled on Thursday about the release of jailed opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko, but there were no signs of a breakthrough on an issue that is threatening landmark agreements with the European Union" [From Reuters]
Watching the PoR 'talking heads' today, my impression was they were disorientated - no-one really knowing what was going on; and comments from independent-minded political experts were ever more pessimistic.
It is your blogger's belief that the president. his advisers and many PoR deputies, have long been arrogantly convinced the association agreement with the EU could be clinched without releasing Tymoshenko. It is beginning to dawn in their thick skulls they were mistaken.
Yanukovych, showing a dreadful lack of leadership, handed over responsibility for solving the Tymoshenko problem to parliament. Without the support of the Communist party parliamentary deputies, [PoR's ruling coalition allies], he could not be certain of any outcome there.
The president's party in parliament are now trying to make, or pretending they are making concessions which will incur minimal losses for the president's image. They hope that their proposed laws will be supported by the opposition.
It could all be too late already. The Association Agreement paperwork has been 'ready to go', astonishingly, since December 2011. Now there we are just a few days left, and a massive hurdle still remains to be overcome before Vilnius.
Looking back through my postings over the last two years it is clear the EU have made concession after concession to make life easier for Yanukovych and ensure the deal was done...but Yanukovych has repeated broken promises, and has not budged a millimetre on the key 'Tymoshenko issue'.
On November 18 EU foreign ministers meet to assess whether the Ukrainian side has done its homework and satisfied clearly defined criteria, including, most importantly, ending selective use of justice. Each of these foreign ministers will have to be briefed by their own ministries in the days before this.
It is a quite possible a consensus will not be reached on November 18, even if a 'fig-leaf' law on the treatment of prisoners abroad is passed in the Verkhovna Rada. [It has to be remembered that even if a law is passed, Tymoshenko wil have to submit a request to a judge for examination, medical evidence presented, approval sought from a recipient country etc.etc.]
The foreign ministers will be aware that failure will make virtually no difference to the EU's 500 million inhabitants, and may even be welcomed by those who consider that the EU has expanded eastward too quickly.
Watching the PoR 'talking heads' today, my impression was they were disorientated - no-one really knowing what was going on; and comments from independent-minded political experts were ever more pessimistic.
It is your blogger's belief that the president. his advisers and many PoR deputies, have long been arrogantly convinced the association agreement with the EU could be clinched without releasing Tymoshenko. It is beginning to dawn in their thick skulls they were mistaken.
Yanukovych, showing a dreadful lack of leadership, handed over responsibility for solving the Tymoshenko problem to parliament. Without the support of the Communist party parliamentary deputies, [PoR's ruling coalition allies], he could not be certain of any outcome there.
The president's party in parliament are now trying to make, or pretending they are making concessions which will incur minimal losses for the president's image. They hope that their proposed laws will be supported by the opposition.
It could all be too late already. The Association Agreement paperwork has been 'ready to go', astonishingly, since December 2011. Now there we are just a few days left, and a massive hurdle still remains to be overcome before Vilnius.
Looking back through my postings over the last two years it is clear the EU have made concession after concession to make life easier for Yanukovych and ensure the deal was done...but Yanukovych has repeated broken promises, and has not budged a millimetre on the key 'Tymoshenko issue'.
On November 18 EU foreign ministers meet to assess whether the Ukrainian side has done its homework and satisfied clearly defined criteria, including, most importantly, ending selective use of justice. Each of these foreign ministers will have to be briefed by their own ministries in the days before this.
It is a quite possible a consensus will not be reached on November 18, even if a 'fig-leaf' law on the treatment of prisoners abroad is passed in the Verkhovna Rada. [It has to be remembered that even if a law is passed, Tymoshenko wil have to submit a request to a judge for examination, medical evidence presented, approval sought from a recipient country etc.etc.]
The foreign ministers will be aware that failure will make virtually no difference to the EU's 500 million inhabitants, and may even be welcomed by those who consider that the EU has expanded eastward too quickly.
Wednesday, November 06, 2013
Fat lady prepares to sing...
During his presentation from at Atlantic Council in Washington - "EU's Eastern Partnership: the Vilnius Summit and Beyond" Slovak Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign and European Affairs Miroslav Lajčák, said:
"I see no consensus on the part of the EU member states to vote for the Association Agreement with Ukraine unless she [Tymoshenko] is out of prison" [38 minutes into the video at the link above.]
Taras Chornovil, someone always worth listening to, reckons the chance of success for Ukraine's successful signing of the AA in Vilnius is currently less than 25%..this would naturally drop if no clear resolution is found in parliament on Thursday to the problem of formulating a law allowing Tymoshenko to be released for treatment to Germany.
The tone and body language of the political 'talking heads' in the media tend to give the impression that they just hope, rather more than expect the EU will give way on the Tymo issue..
If they watched the presentation above by the impressive speaker, they would see the EU has many other serious problems to sort out apart from Ukraine..Failure to sign up Ukraine would not be such a big deal...
"I see no consensus on the part of the EU member states to vote for the Association Agreement with Ukraine unless she [Tymoshenko] is out of prison" [38 minutes into the video at the link above.]
Taras Chornovil, someone always worth listening to, reckons the chance of success for Ukraine's successful signing of the AA in Vilnius is currently less than 25%..this would naturally drop if no clear resolution is found in parliament on Thursday to the problem of formulating a law allowing Tymoshenko to be released for treatment to Germany.
The tone and body language of the political 'talking heads' in the media tend to give the impression that they just hope, rather more than expect the EU will give way on the Tymo issue..
If they watched the presentation above by the impressive speaker, they would see the EU has many other serious problems to sort out apart from Ukraine..Failure to sign up Ukraine would not be such a big deal...
Tuesday, November 05, 2013
Yanukovych will not release Tymoshenko anytime soon
Party of Regions' official site carries this:
"Volodymyr Oliynyk: Yulia Tymoshenko can not be let out abroad to her money
Due to revealed new circumstances which indicate that former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko has a big amount of money of doubtful provenance abroad, it is not reasonable to let her out of Ukraine now, stressed MP, member of the PARTY OF REGIONS parliamentary faction Volodymyr Oliynyk...."
Smart-arse Oliynyk also added: "It would be very strange to release Yulia Tymoshenko to her illegally acquired and hidden abroad funds,"
Tymoshenko has never been tried or sentenced anywhere for illegally acquiring and/or hiding funds.
'Oleaginous' Oliynyk [his name suits his nature] never tires of claiming he always adheres strictly to high legal standards, whenever he appears on television. He therefore is well aware his statement was highly prejudicial, and this hastily arranged ploy to recover these 'funds' in Switzerland and the USA merely a cynical stalling tactic.
From the moment of Tymoshenko's imprisonment demands for her release from western politician have been met by one such stalling tactic after another.
PoR and their Commie mates also brazenly boycotted today's parliamentary committee meeting which was to discuss proposals for treatment of prisoners abroad.
Judging by the body language and tone of PoR party spokesmen in the media these last few days, and the response of opposition members [who now have no more cards left to play], the chances of any parliamentary bill concerning the release of prisoners for treatment abroad being passed this week are now slim.
Rumours about Yanukovych's secret recent meeting with Putin in Sochi tend to confirm that Yanukovych has burned his bridges with his host. The problem is he is not yet willing to pay the price demanded by the EU, i.e. the release of Tymoshenko, for a successful signing of the AA in Vilnius.
Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland met Yanukovych today - their meeting lasted twice longer than scheduled. The recent furore about the US eavesdropping and phone tapping operations, involving even the likes of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, tends to suggest that the US security services "have plenty" on Yanukovych and his pals too.. Some commentators wonder whether this was brought up at today's meeting to help convince Yanukovych to 'do the right thing'...
If the Europeans want a successful conclusion to theVilnius summit they will need to resort this kind of selective behind-the-scenes bullying and blackmailing too...nothing else remains.
"Volodymyr Oliynyk: Yulia Tymoshenko can not be let out abroad to her money
Due to revealed new circumstances which indicate that former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko has a big amount of money of doubtful provenance abroad, it is not reasonable to let her out of Ukraine now, stressed MP, member of the PARTY OF REGIONS parliamentary faction Volodymyr Oliynyk...."
Smart-arse Oliynyk also added: "It would be very strange to release Yulia Tymoshenko to her illegally acquired and hidden abroad funds,"
Tymoshenko has never been tried or sentenced anywhere for illegally acquiring and/or hiding funds.
'Oleaginous' Oliynyk [his name suits his nature] never tires of claiming he always adheres strictly to high legal standards, whenever he appears on television. He therefore is well aware his statement was highly prejudicial, and this hastily arranged ploy to recover these 'funds' in Switzerland and the USA merely a cynical stalling tactic.
From the moment of Tymoshenko's imprisonment demands for her release from western politician have been met by one such stalling tactic after another.
PoR and their Commie mates also brazenly boycotted today's parliamentary committee meeting which was to discuss proposals for treatment of prisoners abroad.
Judging by the body language and tone of PoR party spokesmen in the media these last few days, and the response of opposition members [who now have no more cards left to play], the chances of any parliamentary bill concerning the release of prisoners for treatment abroad being passed this week are now slim.
Rumours about Yanukovych's secret recent meeting with Putin in Sochi tend to confirm that Yanukovych has burned his bridges with his host. The problem is he is not yet willing to pay the price demanded by the EU, i.e. the release of Tymoshenko, for a successful signing of the AA in Vilnius.
Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland met Yanukovych today - their meeting lasted twice longer than scheduled. The recent furore about the US eavesdropping and phone tapping operations, involving even the likes of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, tends to suggest that the US security services "have plenty" on Yanukovych and his pals too.. Some commentators wonder whether this was brought up at today's meeting to help convince Yanukovych to 'do the right thing'...
If the Europeans want a successful conclusion to theVilnius summit they will need to resort this kind of selective behind-the-scenes bullying and blackmailing too...nothing else remains.
Monday, November 04, 2013
Yanukovych only trusts those with criminal past
Halya Coynash, in her 'KyivPost piece', "Yanukovych's poor choice in Lviv", is critical of: "The president’s latest appointment [of Oleh Salo] as Lviv regional governor [which] has elicited outrage in the region.." [Also here ]
Coynash is being charitable. Others are more blunt and to the point - the man has a dreadful track record going back many years that is as long as your arm. Salo is a black character indeed.
Typically, on being appointed head of the Lviv oblast Ministry of Internal Affairs Administration he had diamonds stitched into the stars on his new general's uniform and drove around in a special custom-built $100k Volkswagen limo with an interior lined with fancy veneers, bar, television etc.
Halya Coynash states: "..in 2003 the parliamentary committee on fighting organized crime and corruption asked Viktor Yanukovych, then Prime Minister, to dismiss Oleh Salo for abuse of official position."
The parliamentary committee report actually ran to 11 closely typewritten pages.
Salo and an associate where accused of involvement in the alleged re-registering a Mercedes whose owner had been murdered three days previously. The prime suspect, who has never been caught, was also involved in the murderous scheme to re-register the vehicle.
In 2000, dozens of vehicles on which customs duty had not been paid were registered by Salo and his associates.
That same year, Salo illegally registered a stolen Mercedes 380...in 2001 he was involved in the purchase of vehicles on which customs duty had not been paid, i.e. smuggled from abroad, for the use of ministry of the interior personnel in Lviv oblast.
Salo worked with criminal gangs by providing them with passes to help them bring stolen vehicles into the country.
In 2002 he falsified documents from the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs to elevate his already lofty rank, and falsified merit awards 'bestowed' on his best mate.
In 2003 a group of parliamentary deputies requested the minister of internal affairs sack Salo for unauthorised possession of a cache of ammunition, and for numerous other alleged crimes, particularly at Western Ukrainian customs posts.
There is creditable evidence that he was involved in serious election fraud in Pervomaysk and theft of large quantities of ballot papers in 2004.
In 2005, during police searches conducted in the apartment of Salo and head of the Western region customs head, over $200,000 of cash, and weaponry were found. At the time they were being investigated for alleged involvement in the assassination attempt on a parliamentary deputy, Petro Pysarchuk.
The list goes on and on...
Salo is exactly the sort of guy Yanukovych trusts and likes to use because there is a ton of kompromat on him to guarantee his loyalty.
His appointment is a slap in the face of those who want to make Ukraine a more decent, European country. Under Yanukovych the country will continue to be a gangster state.
p.s. Anecdotal reports provided to your blogger confirm corruption and extortion at Ukraine's western border posts is as bad as it ever has been.
Coynash is being charitable. Others are more blunt and to the point - the man has a dreadful track record going back many years that is as long as your arm. Salo is a black character indeed.
Typically, on being appointed head of the Lviv oblast Ministry of Internal Affairs Administration he had diamonds stitched into the stars on his new general's uniform and drove around in a special custom-built $100k Volkswagen limo with an interior lined with fancy veneers, bar, television etc.
Halya Coynash states: "..in 2003 the parliamentary committee on fighting organized crime and corruption asked Viktor Yanukovych, then Prime Minister, to dismiss Oleh Salo for abuse of official position."
The parliamentary committee report actually ran to 11 closely typewritten pages.
Salo and an associate where accused of involvement in the alleged re-registering a Mercedes whose owner had been murdered three days previously. The prime suspect, who has never been caught, was also involved in the murderous scheme to re-register the vehicle.
In 2000, dozens of vehicles on which customs duty had not been paid were registered by Salo and his associates.
That same year, Salo illegally registered a stolen Mercedes 380...in 2001 he was involved in the purchase of vehicles on which customs duty had not been paid, i.e. smuggled from abroad, for the use of ministry of the interior personnel in Lviv oblast.
Salo worked with criminal gangs by providing them with passes to help them bring stolen vehicles into the country.
In 2002 he falsified documents from the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs to elevate his already lofty rank, and falsified merit awards 'bestowed' on his best mate.
In 2003 a group of parliamentary deputies requested the minister of internal affairs sack Salo for unauthorised possession of a cache of ammunition, and for numerous other alleged crimes, particularly at Western Ukrainian customs posts.
There is creditable evidence that he was involved in serious election fraud in Pervomaysk and theft of large quantities of ballot papers in 2004.
In 2005, during police searches conducted in the apartment of Salo and head of the Western region customs head, over $200,000 of cash, and weaponry were found. At the time they were being investigated for alleged involvement in the assassination attempt on a parliamentary deputy, Petro Pysarchuk.
The list goes on and on...
Salo is exactly the sort of guy Yanukovych trusts and likes to use because there is a ton of kompromat on him to guarantee his loyalty.
His appointment is a slap in the face of those who want to make Ukraine a more decent, European country. Under Yanukovych the country will continue to be a gangster state.
p.s. Anecdotal reports provided to your blogger confirm corruption and extortion at Ukraine's western border posts is as bad as it ever has been.
Saturday, November 02, 2013
Has Yanukovych had enough of this democracy bollocks?
"The members of the European Parliament's observation mission - former Polish President Alexander Kwasniewski and former European Parliament President Pat Cox – have said that the bill on treatment of convicts abroad submitted by independent parliamentarian Anzhelika Labunska is the optimum for reaching a consensus in the issue of treatment convicts [i.e. Yulia Tymoshenko] abroad.. The proposed bill, [one of four], is to be voted on in parliament next week."
Several weeks ago K&K appealed to president Yanukovych to release Tymoshenko for treatment abroad 'by way of a pardon'. but their request was ignored.
Now several PoR deputies have already declared that they will not support Labunska's bill, so it is unlikely it will 'get off the launch pad' either.
There are several reasons to suspect Yanukovych may be stalling to deliver on the EU's conditions which need to be satisfied for a successful Association Agreement signing in Vilnius in late November.
If Tymoshenko were to be released there would be immediate, massive interest in her in the western political circles and media which would naturally taper off in the days and weeks after this. Yanukovych wants to avoid this period of greatest interest in Tymoshenko coinciding with any possible signing...And her presence in Western European capitals will be an even greater thorn in his side whenever Ukraine's relationship with Europe is discussed in the future.
At the moment PoR can only command a majority in parliament with the help of 32 Communist deputies. In the event of a successful Vilnius, the Communist deputies will denounce their ruling coalition partners, go their own way and operate independently. The loss of guaranteed control of parliament would be a substantial blow to the president.
A third 'gas war' with Russia looks likely; even though Russian PM Medvedev insists that: "for now everything is okay". It is a war that Ukraine cannot win, whatever the outcome in Vilnius. Those sitting in freezing apartments in Ukrainian cities will blame Yanukovch, He will inevitably have to crawl back to Putin..
Major economic problems await in the New Year. The country needs a quick financial fix, not drip feed of financial support from Europe linked to further progress on economic reform....Yet Medvedev has already said: No more loans from Russia...
'Kyiv Post' have got it right: "it looks more likely that the Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania at the end of the month will be a dud.
Yanukovych may be thinking: Putin and Lukashenko have got it right..this democracy nonsense is a load of bollocks.
Several weeks ago K&K appealed to president Yanukovych to release Tymoshenko for treatment abroad 'by way of a pardon'. but their request was ignored.
Now several PoR deputies have already declared that they will not support Labunska's bill, so it is unlikely it will 'get off the launch pad' either.
There are several reasons to suspect Yanukovych may be stalling to deliver on the EU's conditions which need to be satisfied for a successful Association Agreement signing in Vilnius in late November.
If Tymoshenko were to be released there would be immediate, massive interest in her in the western political circles and media which would naturally taper off in the days and weeks after this. Yanukovych wants to avoid this period of greatest interest in Tymoshenko coinciding with any possible signing...And her presence in Western European capitals will be an even greater thorn in his side whenever Ukraine's relationship with Europe is discussed in the future.
At the moment PoR can only command a majority in parliament with the help of 32 Communist deputies. In the event of a successful Vilnius, the Communist deputies will denounce their ruling coalition partners, go their own way and operate independently. The loss of guaranteed control of parliament would be a substantial blow to the president.
A third 'gas war' with Russia looks likely; even though Russian PM Medvedev insists that: "for now everything is okay". It is a war that Ukraine cannot win, whatever the outcome in Vilnius. Those sitting in freezing apartments in Ukrainian cities will blame Yanukovch, He will inevitably have to crawl back to Putin..
Major economic problems await in the New Year. The country needs a quick financial fix, not drip feed of financial support from Europe linked to further progress on economic reform....Yet Medvedev has already said: No more loans from Russia...
'Kyiv Post' have got it right: "it looks more likely that the Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania at the end of the month will be a dud.
Yanukovych may be thinking: Putin and Lukashenko have got it right..this democracy nonsense is a load of bollocks.
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Herman wading in doo-doo as usual
Last week presidential adviser and Party of Regions parliamentary deputy, Hanna Herman, declared from the parliamentary podium that boxer and presidential contender Vitaliy Klychko, by paying taxes in Germany [on earnings he makes in that country], is supporting the former Nazi invaders of Ukraine.
"He pays his taxes so that there can be high pensions for German pensioners, amongst whom are those who ripped our land apart during the Great Patriotic War", said Herman in the Verkhovna Rada.
Ukrainian dignitaries and political leaders are not shy when it come to purchasing German cars, rows of which can be seen outside parliament. The profits made by Mercedes, BMW etc. are also ploughed back into these companies' pension funds from which, no doubt, some ex-Nazis also benefit. These companies made major contributions to the Nazi war machine in the 1930's and 1940's too.
Ukrainians who were taken as slave labour against their will to Hitler's Germany, including some of your humble blogger's family, still regularly receive small German pensions, partly paid for by Klychko's taxes, more than 60 years after the end of the war.
Herman has many times spoken of Ukraine's deep-felt motivation to join the European family of nations.
The Second World War finished well over half a century ago. From the catastrophe emerged a new Europe, and a new European Union which Herman claims Ukraine should strive to join. I can only image what German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her advisers make of Herman's crazy utterances on this most touchy of subjects...
Successful signing of the EU-Ukraine AA and DCFTA deals in late November is hanging in the balance...with Merkel, arguably, having a decisive say on the matter. Herman's barmy remark may have been the last straw.
p.s. There are reports the EU are already considering a 'plan B' for Ukraine - kick the AA can down the road until next year?
Can Ukraine survive pressure from Putin without support from the West for that long? Do they want to?
"He pays his taxes so that there can be high pensions for German pensioners, amongst whom are those who ripped our land apart during the Great Patriotic War", said Herman in the Verkhovna Rada.
Ukrainian dignitaries and political leaders are not shy when it come to purchasing German cars, rows of which can be seen outside parliament. The profits made by Mercedes, BMW etc. are also ploughed back into these companies' pension funds from which, no doubt, some ex-Nazis also benefit. These companies made major contributions to the Nazi war machine in the 1930's and 1940's too.
Ukrainians who were taken as slave labour against their will to Hitler's Germany, including some of your humble blogger's family, still regularly receive small German pensions, partly paid for by Klychko's taxes, more than 60 years after the end of the war.
Herman has many times spoken of Ukraine's deep-felt motivation to join the European family of nations.
The Second World War finished well over half a century ago. From the catastrophe emerged a new Europe, and a new European Union which Herman claims Ukraine should strive to join. I can only image what German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her advisers make of Herman's crazy utterances on this most touchy of subjects...
Successful signing of the EU-Ukraine AA and DCFTA deals in late November is hanging in the balance...with Merkel, arguably, having a decisive say on the matter. Herman's barmy remark may have been the last straw.
p.s. There are reports the EU are already considering a 'plan B' for Ukraine - kick the AA can down the road until next year?
Can Ukraine survive pressure from Putin without support from the West for that long? Do they want to?
Thursday, October 24, 2013
Irony of Firtash's donation [updated]
Dmytro Firtash's donation of $2.5 Million to for the erection of a Holodomor Memorial in Washington D.C. has caused quite a stir.
Others commentators have discussed the appropriateness of this donation from such a questionable character.
I would like to direct readers to an excellent detailed journalistic investigation into Firtash and his gas business conducted by the authoritative, big-selling German 'Spiegel' magazine a couple of years ago [in English] entitled: "A Stockholm Conspiracy: The Underbelly of Ukrainian Gas Dealings"
The article concludes: "Viktor Yanukovich, the president of Ukraine, served the commercial interests of an oligarch [Dmytro Firtash] with whom he has close ties, at the expense of his own country. And, in doing so, he also did Moscow a favor....
Experts have calculated that the Ukrainian government [by not challenging Firtash's RosUkrEnergo in the Arbitration Institute of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce] lost about $1 billion in this process of shifting 12.1 billion cubic meters of gas back and forth. Firtash, however, is raking in a huge profit at current prices. "
Yanukovych, Firtash, Boyko and the rest of the villains in this saga, have drained vast sums of money from the State of Ukraine's coffers, which the government could have spent for the benefit of its citizens.
How ironic - a monument to millions who perished in the Holodomor because their grain and food was stolen from them by the Soviet state, is now going to be erected by a man who many would say stole the money for this monument from the Holodomor victims' grandchildren.
p.s. When in Kyiv, Firtash is escorted by a team of bodyguards. His own vehicle, a swanky Merc.... has 'bent' and 'dirty' number plates.
The plates have an 'AA' prefix, indicating they has been assigned exclusively for the use of a parliamentary deputy, which Firtash is not.
As such, the driver of such a vehicle is absolutely 'untouchable' when it comes legal regulations on parking, and regulations concerning use of a vehicle on a public highway. [Is there any other civilised country where elected officials are granted such immunity from prosecution?]
Some people just cannot help it..
Update: Today's 'Ukrainska Pravda', in an investigative article, Tetyana Chornovol claims Firtash may have skimmed off over $2 Billion in various schemes over the years in what she calls the theft of the century..
Will $2.5 Million for a memorial in Washington and organising a few 'poncy' fashion shows and 'weirdo' art shows in London buy respectability? Hardly.
All this reminds me of a joke:
A character witness in a courtroom, when asked to describe a defendant's good ethical and moral qualities says: "He was a very, very good boy. Everything he ever stole he gave to his mother.."
Others commentators have discussed the appropriateness of this donation from such a questionable character.
I would like to direct readers to an excellent detailed journalistic investigation into Firtash and his gas business conducted by the authoritative, big-selling German 'Spiegel' magazine a couple of years ago [in English] entitled: "A Stockholm Conspiracy: The Underbelly of Ukrainian Gas Dealings"
The article concludes: "Viktor Yanukovich, the president of Ukraine, served the commercial interests of an oligarch [Dmytro Firtash] with whom he has close ties, at the expense of his own country. And, in doing so, he also did Moscow a favor....
Experts have calculated that the Ukrainian government [by not challenging Firtash's RosUkrEnergo in the Arbitration Institute of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce] lost about $1 billion in this process of shifting 12.1 billion cubic meters of gas back and forth. Firtash, however, is raking in a huge profit at current prices. "
Yanukovych, Firtash, Boyko and the rest of the villains in this saga, have drained vast sums of money from the State of Ukraine's coffers, which the government could have spent for the benefit of its citizens.
How ironic - a monument to millions who perished in the Holodomor because their grain and food was stolen from them by the Soviet state, is now going to be erected by a man who many would say stole the money for this monument from the Holodomor victims' grandchildren.
p.s. When in Kyiv, Firtash is escorted by a team of bodyguards. His own vehicle, a swanky Merc.... has 'bent' and 'dirty' number plates.
The plates have an 'AA' prefix, indicating they has been assigned exclusively for the use of a parliamentary deputy, which Firtash is not.
As such, the driver of such a vehicle is absolutely 'untouchable' when it comes legal regulations on parking, and regulations concerning use of a vehicle on a public highway. [Is there any other civilised country where elected officials are granted such immunity from prosecution?]
Some people just cannot help it..
Update: Today's 'Ukrainska Pravda', in an investigative article, Tetyana Chornovol claims Firtash may have skimmed off over $2 Billion in various schemes over the years in what she calls the theft of the century..
Will $2.5 Million for a memorial in Washington and organising a few 'poncy' fashion shows and 'weirdo' art shows in London buy respectability? Hardly.
All this reminds me of a joke:
A character witness in a courtroom, when asked to describe a defendant's good ethical and moral qualities says: "He was a very, very good boy. Everything he ever stole he gave to his mother.."
Tuesday, October 22, 2013
Yanukovych has the power to pardon Tymoshenko
A Presidential Ukaz [Edict], 902/2010, "On the Regulation of Procedure for Realising [presidential] Pardons", passed by Yanukovych himself, gives details of who can and who cannot apply to a presidential commission for a pardon, and on what conditions a pardon may be granted. Applications are submitted to presidential commission who advise the president on any ultimate decision.
The president naturally has the power to amend any ukazes he has written, or his predecessors have written, if he so desires. This is the case with this current ukaz 902/2010, which annulled previous presidential ukazes on the granting of pardons passed both by Kuchma and Yushchenko.
Ukraine's Constitution is crystal clear:
Article 106 states: The president shall: .....23) grant pardons;
There are no exceptions, no qualifying phrases...nothing...
The president therefore could quite legitimately pardon Yulia Tymoshenko by ukaz. In the edict he could merely add that because of the extraordinary circumstances, on this occasion, the terms of ukaz 902/2010 do not apply. That's it. Job done...no messing with parliament at all.
Yanukovych has often said that the Tymoshenko problem has to be resolved by legal means..The above solution would be quite legal..no-one could challenge it..
But we know Yanik is a bit of a coward...wants someone else to do the dirty work and clear up the mess he made..... does not want to look like a twat...
p.s. Check out this video of Catherine Ashton after today's EU Foreign Affairs Council, answering two questions on Ukraine. She makes the EU's position pretty clear....
The president naturally has the power to amend any ukazes he has written, or his predecessors have written, if he so desires. This is the case with this current ukaz 902/2010, which annulled previous presidential ukazes on the granting of pardons passed both by Kuchma and Yushchenko.
Ukraine's Constitution is crystal clear:
Article 106 states: The president shall: .....23) grant pardons;
There are no exceptions, no qualifying phrases...nothing...
The president therefore could quite legitimately pardon Yulia Tymoshenko by ukaz. In the edict he could merely add that because of the extraordinary circumstances, on this occasion, the terms of ukaz 902/2010 do not apply. That's it. Job done...no messing with parliament at all.
Yanukovych has often said that the Tymoshenko problem has to be resolved by legal means..The above solution would be quite legal..no-one could challenge it..
But we know Yanik is a bit of a coward...wants someone else to do the dirty work and clear up the mess he made..... does not want to look like a twat...
p.s. Check out this video of Catherine Ashton after today's EU Foreign Affairs Council, answering two questions on Ukraine. She makes the EU's position pretty clear....
Sunday, October 20, 2013
Opposition may not support bills to release Tymoshenko for treatment
On Monday draft bills will be submitted to parliament ammending the Criminal Codex to enable prisoners in Ukrainian jails, under certain circumstances, to be released for treatment abroad. The bills could even have their first reading on Tuesday.
Seasoned opposition politician and close associate of Yulia Tymoshenko, Oleksandra Kuzhel, in an interview on RadioSvoboda, says the opposition will not support any bill that contains terms considered humiliating to their leader. She says the opposition will not be making any fresh proposals; their own proposals on amnesties having been submitted over a year ago. Since then have remained untouched.
She says the opposition will only support bills that are in tune with European Commission declarations, as voiced in Kwasniewski and Cox's recent letter to Yanukovych. [i.e. "Yulia Tymoshenko be released for medical treatment on health and humanitarian grounds by way of a pardon" see previous blog.]
K&C are back in Ukraine tomorrow, for a mind-boggling 23rd time, to try and bang a few heads together.....probably because they realise the draft bills are a 'load of bollocks' and nothing will come of them.
p.s. Readers of the authoritative independent LB.ua website were asked whether they though Yanukovych would release Tymoshenko for the sake of successful signing of the Association Agreement.
61% of those who responded thought he would not.
16% thought he will release her only if she promises never to return back to Ukraine.
10% thought the AA would be signed in any case.
Only 10% thought that things are moving in the direction of her release.
So, in the eyes of LB.ua readers, not looking too good at all..
'The Times' Reports : Hopes fade for leader of Ukraine revolution Yuliya Tymoshenko
The release of Yulia Tymoshenko is key to an EU trade deal
Ben Hoyle Kiev Published at 12:01AM, October 19 2013
The lawyer of the Ukrainian opposition leader Yuliya Tymoshenko is “very, very pessimistic” despite hints from President Yanukovych that she might soon be freed from jail.
Sergei Vlasenko said that he “will believe it only when I see Mrs Tymoshenko physically released”. With a presidential poll due in 2015, Mr Vlasenko said the President was “afraid of her because she is the only person who could beat him even in a falsified election”.
The European Union has made her release a condition of a free trade deal with Ukraine, which would draw the country out of the Russian sphere for...
Seasoned opposition politician and close associate of Yulia Tymoshenko, Oleksandra Kuzhel, in an interview on RadioSvoboda, says the opposition will not support any bill that contains terms considered humiliating to their leader. She says the opposition will not be making any fresh proposals; their own proposals on amnesties having been submitted over a year ago. Since then have remained untouched.
She says the opposition will only support bills that are in tune with European Commission declarations, as voiced in Kwasniewski and Cox's recent letter to Yanukovych. [i.e. "Yulia Tymoshenko be released for medical treatment on health and humanitarian grounds by way of a pardon" see previous blog.]
K&C are back in Ukraine tomorrow, for a mind-boggling 23rd time, to try and bang a few heads together.....probably because they realise the draft bills are a 'load of bollocks' and nothing will come of them.
p.s. Readers of the authoritative independent LB.ua website were asked whether they though Yanukovych would release Tymoshenko for the sake of successful signing of the Association Agreement.
61% of those who responded thought he would not.
16% thought he will release her only if she promises never to return back to Ukraine.
10% thought the AA would be signed in any case.
Only 10% thought that things are moving in the direction of her release.
So, in the eyes of LB.ua readers, not looking too good at all..
'The Times' Reports : Hopes fade for leader of Ukraine revolution Yuliya Tymoshenko
The release of Yulia Tymoshenko is key to an EU trade deal
Ben Hoyle Kiev Published at 12:01AM, October 19 2013
The lawyer of the Ukrainian opposition leader Yuliya Tymoshenko is “very, very pessimistic” despite hints from President Yanukovych that she might soon be freed from jail.
Sergei Vlasenko said that he “will believe it only when I see Mrs Tymoshenko physically released”. With a presidential poll due in 2015, Mr Vlasenko said the President was “afraid of her because she is the only person who could beat him even in a falsified election”.
The European Union has made her release a condition of a free trade deal with Ukraine, which would draw the country out of the Russian sphere for...
Friday, October 18, 2013
Solution to Tymoshenko problem in VR is fraught with risks [update]
Everyone, including Yanukovych is I'm sure now aware that the EU will not co-sign any agreement in Vilnius in late November unless Tymoshenko is freed and allowed to travel abroad for medical treatment..
Kwas/Cox have publicly submitted a request to Yanukovych to pardon former Prime Minister of Ukraine, Yulia Tymoshenko, and release her for medical treatment. They, like most Europeans consider Tymoshenko to be the victim of politically motivated judicial persecution, but no-one is openly willing to point the finger at the instigator and perpetrator of this injustice that is responsible for the mess, and its unforseen consequences.
In order to save face Yanukovych on Thursday proposed parliament passes a law enabling the country's prisoners, under certain circumstances, to travel abroad for medical treatment, and promised to sign such a law promptly. Tymoshenko would then, presumably, have to apply to a court for permission to travel abroad for her spinal medical procedure if she truly wants this, a Ukrainian medical commission declare that such treatment is necessary, and a judge grant permission for this to take place, according to the new law. All in less than a month and a half..
[Ukrainian doctors treating Tymoshenko have quite reasonably maintained that facilities and expertise needed to cure her medical ailment already exist in Ukraine..they will have some explaining to do, adding another layer of absurdity to this charade, no?]
The chances of success of solving the Tymoshenko conundrum in the Verkhovna Rada are not great, because many potential barriers lie on this path. Counter proposals may be forthcoming from the Communist Party. Many PoR deputies who have been throwing dirt at Tymoshenko, calling her all the names under the sun, will find it difficult to support any such motion. The embittered opposition parties may say: "All our proposals have been ignored for months, so why should we co-operate just to save Yanukovych's face?
Tymoshenko could refuse to co-operate if the conditions enabling her trip to Germany are in anyway considered by her to be humiliating. She is well aware of her political super-star status.The Germans could refuse to co-operate if, for example, Ukrainian security officials insist on controlling and overseeing Tymoshenko's every move in their country.
The opposition could refuse and stall in order to force Yanukovych to pardon her himself at one minute to midnight at a stroke of his pen.
The Verkhovna Rada is a notoriously undisciplined place, deputies who have frequently physically attacked one another and physically denied one another access to parliamentary sessions, will find it difficult to come to a concensus. And ultimately everyone knows that passing this law is merely for the sake of expediency...for the benefit of one person. It is a farce..
Yanukovych assures everyone he has no doubt that success will ultimately be achieved in Vilnius and the EU/Ukraine agreements signed. He knows, that if he indeed wants to take the Euro-route, he can, in extremis, at the the last moment, pardon Tymoshenko or release her for treatment by signing an ukaz. It will then be 'job done'.
But if this is all merely a bluff, parliament fails to deliver, and he intends to cosy up to Putin again, [not a pleasant vision] the blame can be laid at the doors of the Verkhovna Rada.
In the days to come I think more and more Europeans, just like this former Polish foreign minister, will question Yanukovych's avowed intent pursue a westward vector...[The normally pro-PoR 'Segodnya' also cover this story..]
Most Ukrainian commentators consider failure in Vilnius would be too much for Europeans to bear, they have invested too much into the Eastern Partership project and will not allow it to happen...hence the Ukraine authorities' cavalier attitude. They are wrong on this. The EU faces many big problems on many fronts, but decades of successes means confidence in its structures are unshakeable, with or without Ukraine.
As we witness the inevitable sight of the easily avoidable, pathetic squabbling between Ukraine's politicians in the month to come, I think politicians in Europe will ever more be thinking; Do we really need all this? Is Ukraine ever going to change for the better? Yanukovych, in common with almost all CIS leaders, will always systematically force a showdown on all subjects when dealing with the west.
The country's chances in Europe may already be receding..
And another thing....The Council of the European Union on 10 December 2012 said:
"[it] reiterates its strong concern regarding the politically motivated convictions of members of the former Government after trials which did not respect international standards as regards fair, transparent and independent legal process and regrets that, as a consequence, opposition leaders were prevented from standing in the parliamentary elections...The Council expects the [Ukrainian] authorities to address the cases of politically motivated convictions without delay as well as to take further steps to reform the judiciary to prevent any recurrence,"
If the necessary legal stuff is done, if Tymoshenko requests such a step, if medical commission and a judge approve, and Tymoshenko is allowed to go to Germany for medical procedures but Ukrainian authorities insist that during her stay she remains 'incommunicado'; and immediately after these procedures are completed according to the proposed new law she must return to complete the remainder of her sentence in jail, will the CoE conditions be considered to have been satisfied? Well? Maybe this is why Kwas/Cox have officially requested Tymoshenko be pardoned..nothing else will do.
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe [PACE] recently urged..the authorities of Ukraine.."to use legal means to release Yulia Tymoshenko given that the judicial procedure leading to her conviction has raised heavy criticism"....
p.s. Excellent analysis from Vadym Karasyov on this topic, in this video [in Ukrainian] here
Politicians of opposing political parties in the USA have in recent days resolved a major crisis and averted possible financial melt-down...can we assume Ukrainian politicians have the intelligence and wisdom to do the same in their own country, as Karasyov suggests? I wish I could be optimistic..
p.p.s. Despite all of the bullshit whether Yanuk can or cannot pardon Tymoshenko, Ukraine's Constitution is crystal clear:
Article 106 states: The president shall: .....23) grant pardons;
There are no exceptions, no qualifying phrases...nothing...
Kwas/Cox, in their letter to Yanukovych several days ago: laid out matters very clearly too: They,
"Request, with a view to fulfilling the above-mentioned conditions, that Yulia Tymoshenko be released for medical treatment on health and humanitarian grounds by way of a pardon*."
Is the pres. is too lazy to read his correspondence?
*Dictionary definition: Exemption a convicted person from the penalties of an offence or crime by the power of the executor of the laws.
Kwas/Cox have publicly submitted a request to Yanukovych to pardon former Prime Minister of Ukraine, Yulia Tymoshenko, and release her for medical treatment. They, like most Europeans consider Tymoshenko to be the victim of politically motivated judicial persecution, but no-one is openly willing to point the finger at the instigator and perpetrator of this injustice that is responsible for the mess, and its unforseen consequences.
In order to save face Yanukovych on Thursday proposed parliament passes a law enabling the country's prisoners, under certain circumstances, to travel abroad for medical treatment, and promised to sign such a law promptly. Tymoshenko would then, presumably, have to apply to a court for permission to travel abroad for her spinal medical procedure if she truly wants this, a Ukrainian medical commission declare that such treatment is necessary, and a judge grant permission for this to take place, according to the new law. All in less than a month and a half..
[Ukrainian doctors treating Tymoshenko have quite reasonably maintained that facilities and expertise needed to cure her medical ailment already exist in Ukraine..they will have some explaining to do, adding another layer of absurdity to this charade, no?]
The chances of success of solving the Tymoshenko conundrum in the Verkhovna Rada are not great, because many potential barriers lie on this path. Counter proposals may be forthcoming from the Communist Party. Many PoR deputies who have been throwing dirt at Tymoshenko, calling her all the names under the sun, will find it difficult to support any such motion. The embittered opposition parties may say: "All our proposals have been ignored for months, so why should we co-operate just to save Yanukovych's face?
Tymoshenko could refuse to co-operate if the conditions enabling her trip to Germany are in anyway considered by her to be humiliating. She is well aware of her political super-star status.The Germans could refuse to co-operate if, for example, Ukrainian security officials insist on controlling and overseeing Tymoshenko's every move in their country.
The opposition could refuse and stall in order to force Yanukovych to pardon her himself at one minute to midnight at a stroke of his pen.
The Verkhovna Rada is a notoriously undisciplined place, deputies who have frequently physically attacked one another and physically denied one another access to parliamentary sessions, will find it difficult to come to a concensus. And ultimately everyone knows that passing this law is merely for the sake of expediency...for the benefit of one person. It is a farce..
Yanukovych assures everyone he has no doubt that success will ultimately be achieved in Vilnius and the EU/Ukraine agreements signed. He knows, that if he indeed wants to take the Euro-route, he can, in extremis, at the the last moment, pardon Tymoshenko or release her for treatment by signing an ukaz. It will then be 'job done'.
But if this is all merely a bluff, parliament fails to deliver, and he intends to cosy up to Putin again, [not a pleasant vision] the blame can be laid at the doors of the Verkhovna Rada.
In the days to come I think more and more Europeans, just like this former Polish foreign minister, will question Yanukovych's avowed intent pursue a westward vector...[The normally pro-PoR 'Segodnya' also cover this story..]
Most Ukrainian commentators consider failure in Vilnius would be too much for Europeans to bear, they have invested too much into the Eastern Partership project and will not allow it to happen...hence the Ukraine authorities' cavalier attitude. They are wrong on this. The EU faces many big problems on many fronts, but decades of successes means confidence in its structures are unshakeable, with or without Ukraine.
As we witness the inevitable sight of the easily avoidable, pathetic squabbling between Ukraine's politicians in the month to come, I think politicians in Europe will ever more be thinking; Do we really need all this? Is Ukraine ever going to change for the better? Yanukovych, in common with almost all CIS leaders, will always systematically force a showdown on all subjects when dealing with the west.
The country's chances in Europe may already be receding..
And another thing....The Council of the European Union on 10 December 2012 said:
"[it] reiterates its strong concern regarding the politically motivated convictions of members of the former Government after trials which did not respect international standards as regards fair, transparent and independent legal process and regrets that, as a consequence, opposition leaders were prevented from standing in the parliamentary elections...The Council expects the [Ukrainian] authorities to address the cases of politically motivated convictions without delay as well as to take further steps to reform the judiciary to prevent any recurrence,"
If the necessary legal stuff is done, if Tymoshenko requests such a step, if medical commission and a judge approve, and Tymoshenko is allowed to go to Germany for medical procedures but Ukrainian authorities insist that during her stay she remains 'incommunicado'; and immediately after these procedures are completed according to the proposed new law she must return to complete the remainder of her sentence in jail, will the CoE conditions be considered to have been satisfied? Well? Maybe this is why Kwas/Cox have officially requested Tymoshenko be pardoned..nothing else will do.
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe [PACE] recently urged..the authorities of Ukraine.."to use legal means to release Yulia Tymoshenko given that the judicial procedure leading to her conviction has raised heavy criticism"....
p.s. Excellent analysis from Vadym Karasyov on this topic, in this video [in Ukrainian] here
Politicians of opposing political parties in the USA have in recent days resolved a major crisis and averted possible financial melt-down...can we assume Ukrainian politicians have the intelligence and wisdom to do the same in their own country, as Karasyov suggests? I wish I could be optimistic..
p.p.s. Despite all of the bullshit whether Yanuk can or cannot pardon Tymoshenko, Ukraine's Constitution is crystal clear:
Article 106 states: The president shall: .....23) grant pardons;
There are no exceptions, no qualifying phrases...nothing...
Kwas/Cox, in their letter to Yanukovych several days ago: laid out matters very clearly too: They,
"Request, with a view to fulfilling the above-mentioned conditions, that Yulia Tymoshenko be released for medical treatment on health and humanitarian grounds by way of a pardon*."
Is the pres. is too lazy to read his correspondence?
*Dictionary definition: Exemption a convicted person from the penalties of an offence or crime by the power of the executor of the laws.
Wednesday, October 16, 2013
EU's patience nearly running out...
Sonya Koshkina,in her latest Lb.ua piece, entitled 'Strict regime holiday' makes some interesting points in the drawn out, 'will they, won't they release Tymoshenko' saga. Here are some of them:
There is ever-mounting evidence that Yanukovych is employing blatant stalling tactics in regard to her release, calling into question the sincerity of his desire to move Ukraine in a westward direction. [Constant raised hopes, 'false dawns' and repeated tales of imminent release may be part of these tactics.]
Other members of the Customs Union, Belarus and Kazakhstan are going distinctly 'wobbly' on the Russians. This may explain the desperate measures to which Putin and his people are resorting, in an attempt to bully, and lately possibly to woo Ukraine back into Russia's sphere of influence.
Koshkina outlines one scheme allegedly being prepared by Yanukovych's team:
Tymoshenko is due to appear in UESU case hearings in a Kharkiv court in on October 25th. The prosecutors or possibly the penitentiary service may appeal to the hearing judge with a request to let Tymoshenko go abroad for treatment for a limited period, e.g. six months on the grounds of ill health, and then return to complete her sentence and face outstanding charges. The judge will naturally agree to this...But will Tymoshenko? If she does not, then it will be her who will be accused of having caused any possible failure to get the AA deal sealed in Vilnius in November. If no deal is concluded then, according to Koshkina it will be 'strict regime holidays' for the whole country [not just for YVT.]
Your bloggers view? It has long been apparent that Yanukovych has not been negotiating with the EU in good faith, despite appeals from every quarter of the globe, from many authorities, leading politicians etc.
Some European figures are already talking in terms of a pessimistic scenario. E.g. Vice-President of the European People's Party, Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, says: "There is no time now, and Ukraine's chances of signing the Association Agreement in November at the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius is decreasing rapidly. Ukraine must immediately demonstrate real progress. If it does not do this, then the EU will not sign an agreement solely on the basis of pure rhetoric."
Seasoned German Euro-deputy, Rebecca Harms comments: "Stubbornness in this dispute is blocking [progress for] the whole of Ukraine. I frequently ask myself why such irrationality is present on this issue? I first encountered this in examples of political conflicts in Eastern Europe". Politicians in Berlin and Brussels say that the dragging matters out until the last moment is very risky for Kyiv. 28 EU member states and the European Parliament should vote in support of the Association Agreement . This process can take years. Therefore, according to Rebecca Harms, Ukrainian government should not be taking such risks. [Source]
Others are humiliatingly dreaming up ever-more convoluted and proposterous schemes to enable Yanukovych to save face. The latest - the president gives her a 'partial pardon', [like a partial pregnancy?] as long as she pays a $200million fine and accepts that she cannot stand for president for three years...
It has been generally accepted by western leaders that Tymoshenko's gas trial was a travesty of justice, and that she is a victim of selective justice..so why should she pay any fine? And what if the European Court of Human Rights rule in her favour again in the coming months and declares her human rights were abused during this trial? Will she get a refund?
Is Yanukovych stringing the Europeans along all these months in order to eventually get a better deal with Putin? This arrangement could eventually mean the end of messy elections with pesky observers, if it becomes a necessity. The overarching aim of this man is to copy other CIS leaders and remain in power; eventually enabling his son Oleksandr, whose business structures are already close to those of Putin's, to take over at the helm some point in the future...
The cat-and-mouse game over Tymoshenko, the bluffing and counter-bluffing, is a good indicator what EU - Ukraine relationship will look like in the future if the current Ukrainian leadership remain in place, irrespective whether theAA and DCFTA is signed or not. It's time to ditch the whole deal - not just kick the can down the road, but kick it into the long grass....[bad case of mixed metaphors..sorry]
There is ever-mounting evidence that Yanukovych is employing blatant stalling tactics in regard to her release, calling into question the sincerity of his desire to move Ukraine in a westward direction. [Constant raised hopes, 'false dawns' and repeated tales of imminent release may be part of these tactics.]
Other members of the Customs Union, Belarus and Kazakhstan are going distinctly 'wobbly' on the Russians. This may explain the desperate measures to which Putin and his people are resorting, in an attempt to bully, and lately possibly to woo Ukraine back into Russia's sphere of influence.
Koshkina outlines one scheme allegedly being prepared by Yanukovych's team:
Tymoshenko is due to appear in UESU case hearings in a Kharkiv court in on October 25th. The prosecutors or possibly the penitentiary service may appeal to the hearing judge with a request to let Tymoshenko go abroad for treatment for a limited period, e.g. six months on the grounds of ill health, and then return to complete her sentence and face outstanding charges. The judge will naturally agree to this...But will Tymoshenko? If she does not, then it will be her who will be accused of having caused any possible failure to get the AA deal sealed in Vilnius in November. If no deal is concluded then, according to Koshkina it will be 'strict regime holidays' for the whole country [not just for YVT.]
Your bloggers view? It has long been apparent that Yanukovych has not been negotiating with the EU in good faith, despite appeals from every quarter of the globe, from many authorities, leading politicians etc.
Some European figures are already talking in terms of a pessimistic scenario. E.g. Vice-President of the European People's Party, Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, says: "There is no time now, and Ukraine's chances of signing the Association Agreement in November at the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius is decreasing rapidly. Ukraine must immediately demonstrate real progress. If it does not do this, then the EU will not sign an agreement solely on the basis of pure rhetoric."
Seasoned German Euro-deputy, Rebecca Harms comments: "Stubbornness in this dispute is blocking [progress for] the whole of Ukraine. I frequently ask myself why such irrationality is present on this issue? I first encountered this in examples of political conflicts in Eastern Europe". Politicians in Berlin and Brussels say that the dragging matters out until the last moment is very risky for Kyiv. 28 EU member states and the European Parliament should vote in support of the Association Agreement . This process can take years. Therefore, according to Rebecca Harms, Ukrainian government should not be taking such risks. [Source]
It has been generally accepted by western leaders that Tymoshenko's gas trial was a travesty of justice, and that she is a victim of selective justice..so why should she pay any fine? And what if the European Court of Human Rights rule in her favour again in the coming months and declares her human rights were abused during this trial? Will she get a refund?
Is Yanukovych stringing the Europeans along all these months in order to eventually get a better deal with Putin? This arrangement could eventually mean the end of messy elections with pesky observers, if it becomes a necessity. The overarching aim of this man is to copy other CIS leaders and remain in power; eventually enabling his son Oleksandr, whose business structures are already close to those of Putin's, to take over at the helm some point in the future...
The cat-and-mouse game over Tymoshenko, the bluffing and counter-bluffing, is a good indicator what EU - Ukraine relationship will look like in the future if the current Ukrainian leadership remain in place, irrespective whether theAA and DCFTA is signed or not. It's time to ditch the whole deal - not just kick the can down the road, but kick it into the long grass....[bad case of mixed metaphors..sorry]
Saturday, October 12, 2013
Another fine mess
Deadlines have now been set by the Europeans for Tymoshenko's release, which have to met by Ukraine if the EU/Ukraine Association Agreement and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements are to be successfully clinched.
However, it becoming clear that president Yanukovych will not pardon Yulia Tymoshenko under any circumstances; it would be too much of a climb-down for him to bear. Some other mechanism for her release to Germany needs to be found.
Yanukovych is pressing the Ukrainian parliament to pass a law enabling prisoners, like YVT, to obtain treatment abroad. But is this realistic? [I foresee weekly convoys of ambulances shuttling well-heeled Ukrainian prisoners to Germany and Austria for 'treatment abroad'...]
If Tymoshenko does land up in Germany by means of some other political contortion, the following scenario is quite possible:
The European Court of Human Rights rules Tymoshenko's human rights were abused at her gas trial two years ago, and the verdict declared unsafe, i.e. the trial was fixed....
Armed with the ECHR ruling, showing no fear, she returns back to Ukraine to get the gas case verdict annulled and so clear her name, as she has vowed to do.
If the two further criminal cases involving fraud at UESU, and conspiracy to murder the Shcherban's proceed, she calls Yanukovych's bluff and faces these charges. Because Ukraine, by this time will have signed an Association Agreement, these trials have to be seen to be scrupulously conducted in the full glare of the world's press. Her defence will certainly use every opportunity to discredit Yanukovych and the prosecutors. Any Shcherban trial would be an opportunity to bring up lots of dirt on the 'Donetski'..And if these trials are improperly conducted she will, in any case, challenge any verdict back in the UCHR..
All this would be going on during the 2015 presidential election campaign..So not a happy scenario for Yanukovych to face, particularly bearing in mind his current low ratings in opinion polls.
It cannot be ruled out, therefore, that Yanukovych may be considering hanging onto Tymoshenko and just hoping the Europeans are bluffing when they say "no Tymoshenko - no AA"...And if it falls through...well, 'It will be all the fault of Tymoshenko, the opposition and the Germans'.
p.s. The 'heroes who 'cocked up' and made such a dreadful mess of the gas trial two years ago, instead of being bull-whipped, have all received career-enhancing promotions and awards...
p.p.s. In a TVi.ua straw poll the website's readers were asked: 'When will Yanukovych free Tymoshenko?
Just over one half said 'never'.
About one quarter said October 14, on the feast of 'Pokrova'..
Note: Pokrova, Protecting Veil of the Virgin Mary, is celebrated on October 14; it is the Feast of the Patronage (Protection or Intercession) of the Most Holy Mother of God.
The Virgin Mary has always been regarded in Ukraine as a protectress, a mediator between man and God, and people turned to Her with their prayers, thanking Her for intercession or seeking her help.
Even at the time when soviet atheism was at its most virulent and any form of public manifestation of religious feeling was either suppressed or restricted, the feasts dedicated to the Virgin Mary were clandestinely celebrated, particularly in the countryside. A special, festive meal was a natural part of the celebrations.
However, it becoming clear that president Yanukovych will not pardon Yulia Tymoshenko under any circumstances; it would be too much of a climb-down for him to bear. Some other mechanism for her release to Germany needs to be found.
Yanukovych is pressing the Ukrainian parliament to pass a law enabling prisoners, like YVT, to obtain treatment abroad. But is this realistic? [I foresee weekly convoys of ambulances shuttling well-heeled Ukrainian prisoners to Germany and Austria for 'treatment abroad'...]
If Tymoshenko does land up in Germany by means of some other political contortion, the following scenario is quite possible:
The European Court of Human Rights rules Tymoshenko's human rights were abused at her gas trial two years ago, and the verdict declared unsafe, i.e. the trial was fixed....
Armed with the ECHR ruling, showing no fear, she returns back to Ukraine to get the gas case verdict annulled and so clear her name, as she has vowed to do.
If the two further criminal cases involving fraud at UESU, and conspiracy to murder the Shcherban's proceed, she calls Yanukovych's bluff and faces these charges. Because Ukraine, by this time will have signed an Association Agreement, these trials have to be seen to be scrupulously conducted in the full glare of the world's press. Her defence will certainly use every opportunity to discredit Yanukovych and the prosecutors. Any Shcherban trial would be an opportunity to bring up lots of dirt on the 'Donetski'..And if these trials are improperly conducted she will, in any case, challenge any verdict back in the UCHR..
All this would be going on during the 2015 presidential election campaign..So not a happy scenario for Yanukovych to face, particularly bearing in mind his current low ratings in opinion polls.
It cannot be ruled out, therefore, that Yanukovych may be considering hanging onto Tymoshenko and just hoping the Europeans are bluffing when they say "no Tymoshenko - no AA"...And if it falls through...well, 'It will be all the fault of Tymoshenko, the opposition and the Germans'.
p.s. The 'heroes who 'cocked up' and made such a dreadful mess of the gas trial two years ago, instead of being bull-whipped, have all received career-enhancing promotions and awards...
p.p.s. In a TVi.ua straw poll the website's readers were asked: 'When will Yanukovych free Tymoshenko?
Just over one half said 'never'.
About one quarter said October 14, on the feast of 'Pokrova'..
Note: Pokrova, Protecting Veil of the Virgin Mary, is celebrated on October 14; it is the Feast of the Patronage (Protection or Intercession) of the Most Holy Mother of God.
The Virgin Mary has always been regarded in Ukraine as a protectress, a mediator between man and God, and people turned to Her with their prayers, thanking Her for intercession or seeking her help.
Even at the time when soviet atheism was at its most virulent and any form of public manifestation of religious feeling was either suppressed or restricted, the feasts dedicated to the Virgin Mary were clandestinely celebrated, particularly in the countryside. A special, festive meal was a natural part of the celebrations.
Thursday, October 10, 2013
Yanukovych marked for life
Lots of speculation in the German media that when their foreign minister, Guido Westerwelle returns home from his current visit to Kyiv on Friday, he may be taking back Yulia Tymoshenko with him , as passenger on his plane.
Other top Euro-deputies are 'cautiously optimistic' too.
But Ukrainian foreign minister Kozhara plays down hopes and keeps repeating the threadbare mantra - 'the Tymoshenko problem' can only be resolved within a constitutional and legal framework . [Kozhara claims that "millions of people in Ukraine believe Tymoshenko committed a crime". Well millions believe she was 'stitched up' too, most Ukrainians consider judges and police to be completely corrupt... and think Yanukovych and Kozhara are wankers ...so what?]
But whatever happens, Yanukovych has already been branded forever for persecuting his greatest political rival. If the Vilnius summit ends in failure, he will get the blame.
Serhiy Vysotsky, in Liga.net thinks Yanukovych may be being steered by the formula: Free Tymoshenko, sign Agreement, receive lots of foreign loans...
If Tymoshenko is released and the AA and DCFTA agreements are successfully signed, any loans will be drip-fed piecemeal, in stages. Pressure on Yanukovych to behave according to European standards will be maintained until the 2015 presidential elections and beyond.
Even from abroad, Tymoshenko will continue to be an active political player.
Vysotsky concludes: Some mistakes in politics are impossible to correct - they stick to you for the rest of your life. The chances of Yanukovych cleansing his reputation in the West are slim. Trading political hostages, once the ransom has been received, can only work once. After this, such a politician will always be perceived as small-time wheeler-dealer, not as an equal partner. Tymoshenko is a problem that will remain with Yanukovych forever, regardless of the model of external integration eventually selected.
p.s. Several months after Viktor Yushchenko became president, Adrian Karatnycky published a large piece in the 'NYT' entitled: "Ukraine's Orange Revolution"
It contained the following passage:
"According to the telephone intercepts, the [2004 presidential election] fraud involved some of the country's highest officials. In addition to Medvedchuk and Kivalov, the conspiracy included Eduard Prutnik, a key aide to Yanukovich, Serhiy Lyovochkin, the president's first assistant, and Serhiy Klyuyev, a major fundraiser for the Yanukovich campaign whose brother was the deputy prime minister responsible for Ukraine's lucrative energy sector."
Transcripts of telephone conversations exposing the skulduggery between the head of President Leonid Kuchma's staff, Viktor Medvedchuk, and Yuri Levenets, [a Yanukovich campaign director and notable spin doctor], were also included in the NYT article.
Well, several days ago Levenets, known as the "patriarch of Ukrainian polit-technologists", passed away.
He worked many times for Yanukovych during various election campaigns. However, in 2010 he assisted Yulia Tymoshenko's team. In recent years he was close to his alleged 'partner in crime', current head of the president's administration, Serhiy Lyovochkin, . And there had been rumours he was recently acting as a consultant to Vitaliy Klychko....
Some overblown Ukrainian political experts enter into a world of fantasy and claim Levenets was "a super-powerful intellect, who appear once every hundred - two hundred years." ..
[Had he been charged and sentenced for organising a massive election fraud almost a decade ago this intellect may have useful when trying to escape from jail...]
p.p.s. They all 'piss into the same pot', as they say in my home town....
Other top Euro-deputies are 'cautiously optimistic' too.
But Ukrainian foreign minister Kozhara plays down hopes and keeps repeating the threadbare mantra - 'the Tymoshenko problem' can only be resolved within a constitutional and legal framework . [Kozhara claims that "millions of people in Ukraine believe Tymoshenko committed a crime". Well millions believe she was 'stitched up' too, most Ukrainians consider judges and police to be completely corrupt... and think Yanukovych and Kozhara are wankers ...so what?]
But whatever happens, Yanukovych has already been branded forever for persecuting his greatest political rival. If the Vilnius summit ends in failure, he will get the blame.
Serhiy Vysotsky, in Liga.net thinks Yanukovych may be being steered by the formula: Free Tymoshenko, sign Agreement, receive lots of foreign loans...
If Tymoshenko is released and the AA and DCFTA agreements are successfully signed, any loans will be drip-fed piecemeal, in stages. Pressure on Yanukovych to behave according to European standards will be maintained until the 2015 presidential elections and beyond.
Even from abroad, Tymoshenko will continue to be an active political player.
Vysotsky concludes: Some mistakes in politics are impossible to correct - they stick to you for the rest of your life. The chances of Yanukovych cleansing his reputation in the West are slim. Trading political hostages, once the ransom has been received, can only work once. After this, such a politician will always be perceived as small-time wheeler-dealer, not as an equal partner. Tymoshenko is a problem that will remain with Yanukovych forever, regardless of the model of external integration eventually selected.
p.s. Several months after Viktor Yushchenko became president, Adrian Karatnycky published a large piece in the 'NYT' entitled: "Ukraine's Orange Revolution"
It contained the following passage:
"According to the telephone intercepts, the [2004 presidential election] fraud involved some of the country's highest officials. In addition to Medvedchuk and Kivalov, the conspiracy included Eduard Prutnik, a key aide to Yanukovich, Serhiy Lyovochkin, the president's first assistant, and Serhiy Klyuyev, a major fundraiser for the Yanukovich campaign whose brother was the deputy prime minister responsible for Ukraine's lucrative energy sector."
Transcripts of telephone conversations exposing the skulduggery between the head of President Leonid Kuchma's staff, Viktor Medvedchuk, and Yuri Levenets, [a Yanukovich campaign director and notable spin doctor], were also included in the NYT article.
Well, several days ago Levenets, known as the "patriarch of Ukrainian polit-technologists", passed away.
He worked many times for Yanukovych during various election campaigns. However, in 2010 he assisted Yulia Tymoshenko's team. In recent years he was close to his alleged 'partner in crime', current head of the president's administration, Serhiy Lyovochkin, . And there had been rumours he was recently acting as a consultant to Vitaliy Klychko....
Some overblown Ukrainian political experts enter into a world of fantasy and claim Levenets was "a super-powerful intellect, who appear once every hundred - two hundred years." ..
[Had he been charged and sentenced for organising a massive election fraud almost a decade ago this intellect may have useful when trying to escape from jail...]
p.p.s. They all 'piss into the same pot', as they say in my home town....
Tuesday, October 08, 2013
One week before make-your-mind-up time?
According to Polish Radio:
"The fate of the Ukraine/EU Association Agreement is dependent on the release of Yulia Tymoshenko. An OSW expert believes that Viktor Yanukovych has still not decided whether to release her or not, because Tymoshenko is his most dangerous political opponent."
Deutsche Welle reports the German President, Joachim Gauck, who also attended a meeting in Krakow between the presidents of Ukraine, Italy, Germany and Poland today, called for Tymoshenko to be released. "The central question in the negotiations between the presidents of Ukraine and Germany in Krakow was the release of Yulia Tymoshenko. [Authorities in] Berlin urged Yanukovych not to drag matters out."
A spokesman said for president Gauck the solution of this problem is a barometer of how serious and credible are the efforts of Yanukovych administration in the development of democracy and the rule of law.
Yet at their press briefing following their meeting, neither Yanukovych nor Polish president Komorowski made any reference to the Tymoshenko business at all, to the astonishment of journalists; which seems to confirm the validity of the OSW expert's opinion - Yanukovych has not yet made up his mind.
He must feel these guys are asking him to sign his own political suicide note....
p.s. Yanukovych has a penchant for making big-hearted pronouncements on important days of the Orthodox calendar. E.g. Yuriy Lutsenko was pardoned on the feast of the Annunciation of the Lord [Blahovishchennya].
One Tymoshenko ally predicts that a decision could be announced on October 14. This date is a "two in one": the feast of the Protection of the Blessed Mother of God, [Pokrova] one of the bigger days in the Orthodox calendar, and the eve of the fateful day when Cox and Kwasniewski have to report back to the European parliament's president.
Maybe Yanuk will have a word 'with the Man upstairs' on that day to ask for advice..He cannot complain that the Lord has not been kind to him. Yanukovych's son Aleksandr is now the most successful businessman in the country. His MAKO Holdings has seen a meteoric rise in earnings in 2012 to well over $5Bn. It is now 56th biggest business corporation in Ukraine. Surprised?
"The fate of the Ukraine/EU Association Agreement is dependent on the release of Yulia Tymoshenko. An OSW expert believes that Viktor Yanukovych has still not decided whether to release her or not, because Tymoshenko is his most dangerous political opponent."
Deutsche Welle reports the German President, Joachim Gauck, who also attended a meeting in Krakow between the presidents of Ukraine, Italy, Germany and Poland today, called for Tymoshenko to be released. "The central question in the negotiations between the presidents of Ukraine and Germany in Krakow was the release of Yulia Tymoshenko. [Authorities in] Berlin urged Yanukovych not to drag matters out."
A spokesman said for president Gauck the solution of this problem is a barometer of how serious and credible are the efforts of Yanukovych administration in the development of democracy and the rule of law.
Yet at their press briefing following their meeting, neither Yanukovych nor Polish president Komorowski made any reference to the Tymoshenko business at all, to the astonishment of journalists; which seems to confirm the validity of the OSW expert's opinion - Yanukovych has not yet made up his mind.
He must feel these guys are asking him to sign his own political suicide note....
p.s. Yanukovych has a penchant for making big-hearted pronouncements on important days of the Orthodox calendar. E.g. Yuriy Lutsenko was pardoned on the feast of the Annunciation of the Lord [Blahovishchennya].
One Tymoshenko ally predicts that a decision could be announced on October 14. This date is a "two in one": the feast of the Protection of the Blessed Mother of God, [Pokrova] one of the bigger days in the Orthodox calendar, and the eve of the fateful day when Cox and Kwasniewski have to report back to the European parliament's president.
Maybe Yanuk will have a word 'with the Man upstairs' on that day to ask for advice..He cannot complain that the Lord has not been kind to him. Yanukovych's son Aleksandr is now the most successful businessman in the country. His MAKO Holdings has seen a meteoric rise in earnings in 2012 to well over $5Bn. It is now 56th biggest business corporation in Ukraine. Surprised?
Sunday, October 06, 2013
Tymoshenko still in the game
So "Jailed Ukrainian opposition leader seeks treatment in Germany; EU mission calls for presidential pardon for her...Yulia Tymoshenko, a former prime minister of Ukraine, today accepted a proposal by a team of European Union mediators seeking to resolve a political deadlock caused by her imprisonment. "[From this report ]
Despite being imprisoned, Yulia Tymoshenko has constantly maintained leverage on how the EU/Ukraine Association and Free Trade Agreements pan out. Whatever the critics say, the agenda has revolved around her current predicament.
Meanwhile Yanukovych at the Yalta Economic Summit last month declared:
"We still have time and we will work according to the plan that we have. We have not said yes or no yet....The answer to this question lies in the domain of finding a compromise with Tymoshenko. The court and Tymoshenko can answer this question.”
Yanukovych was implying that it was Tymoshenko herself that was holding up the process of her release from detention by not co-operating..not admitting her guilt...not requesting a pardon...or not willing to "pay back the money"...whatever.
Now, by requesting for treatment in Germany, [despite all of the other hedges in her statement], she has made the first step. Critically, Cox and Kwasniewki, whose report in a few days time will carry great weight before the Vilnius summit, have personally appealed to Yanukoych to release her for treatment. It Yanukovych rebuffs them the chances of success in Vilnius will be much diminished. Tymoshenko, with Cox and Kwasniewski, have laid out a reasonable algorithm for progress to be made. Tymoshenko has been seen to make a first step sideward, if not backward for the benefit of the country.
But Yanukovych rightly fears that if he lets her go, she will be right back in the game. Now, if he does not budge, it will be he who will receive the brickbats, and will have to shoulder the blame for failure in Vilnius.
Latest opinion polls do not make pleasant reading for the president...Success on the path to Euro-integration would give him a boost, no question...
Below is the prognosis for possible head-to-head second round presidential election clashes:
P.s. On Monday Yanukovych will be Krakow, Poland meeting the presidents of Poland, Germany and Italy. No prize for guessing what the main topic of conversation will be...
Despite being imprisoned, Yulia Tymoshenko has constantly maintained leverage on how the EU/Ukraine Association and Free Trade Agreements pan out. Whatever the critics say, the agenda has revolved around her current predicament.
Meanwhile Yanukovych at the Yalta Economic Summit last month declared:
"We still have time and we will work according to the plan that we have. We have not said yes or no yet....The answer to this question lies in the domain of finding a compromise with Tymoshenko. The court and Tymoshenko can answer this question.”
Yanukovych was implying that it was Tymoshenko herself that was holding up the process of her release from detention by not co-operating..not admitting her guilt...not requesting a pardon...or not willing to "pay back the money"...whatever.
Now, by requesting for treatment in Germany, [despite all of the other hedges in her statement], she has made the first step. Critically, Cox and Kwasniewki, whose report in a few days time will carry great weight before the Vilnius summit, have personally appealed to Yanukoych to release her for treatment. It Yanukovych rebuffs them the chances of success in Vilnius will be much diminished. Tymoshenko, with Cox and Kwasniewski, have laid out a reasonable algorithm for progress to be made. Tymoshenko has been seen to make a first step sideward, if not backward for the benefit of the country.
But Yanukovych rightly fears that if he lets her go, she will be right back in the game. Now, if he does not budge, it will be he who will receive the brickbats, and will have to shoulder the blame for failure in Vilnius.
Latest opinion polls do not make pleasant reading for the president...Success on the path to Euro-integration would give him a boost, no question...
Below is the prognosis for possible head-to-head second round presidential election clashes:
Wednesday, October 02, 2013
Quiet words should not be dismissed...
Just watched a video of an interview with Catherine Ashton, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, which took place several days ago at the Wilson Center, Washington,
An impressive and thoughtful performance...
On application of selective justice and the Tymoshenko issue she said: "We are very concerned about her..it is something Ukraine has to sort out, and we hope it will..." [About 42 minutes into the video]
Sometimes the most significant statements are spoken quietly..almost as a passing remark..
Adviser to president Yanukovych, Hanna Herman, a walking advert for the miracles of cosmetic surgery, [see previous blog] may have revealed Yanukovych's pitch to the EU. Sign the deal in Vilnius in return for a promise to sort out the Tymo prob at a later date... Like many of Ukraine's politicians, her champagne and diamonds lifestyle, I fear has caused her to lose touch with reality years ago..
The contrast between the eloquent, understated Ashton and 'mutton dressed as lamb' Herman is stark...
p.s. Meanwhile, according to some....'90% Chance Ukraine Signs EU Association at November Summit' ? But it will be a 'last minute deal'....More on this, in Russian, here
p.p.s. If Yanukovych is finally cornered and has to release Tymoshenko, it may be Prosecutor General Viktor Pshonka and his No.2 Renat Kuzmin who pay the price...[This organisation does not tolerate failure....
An impressive and thoughtful performance...
On application of selective justice and the Tymoshenko issue she said: "We are very concerned about her..it is something Ukraine has to sort out, and we hope it will..." [About 42 minutes into the video]
Sometimes the most significant statements are spoken quietly..almost as a passing remark..
Adviser to president Yanukovych, Hanna Herman, a walking advert for the miracles of cosmetic surgery, [see previous blog] may have revealed Yanukovych's pitch to the EU. Sign the deal in Vilnius in return for a promise to sort out the Tymo prob at a later date... Like many of Ukraine's politicians, her champagne and diamonds lifestyle, I fear has caused her to lose touch with reality years ago..
The contrast between the eloquent, understated Ashton and 'mutton dressed as lamb' Herman is stark...
p.s. Meanwhile, according to some....'90% Chance Ukraine Signs EU Association at November Summit' ? But it will be a 'last minute deal'....More on this, in Russian, here
p.p.s. If Yanukovych is finally cornered and has to release Tymoshenko, it may be Prosecutor General Viktor Pshonka and his No.2 Renat Kuzmin who pay the price...[This organisation does not tolerate failure....
Tuesday, October 01, 2013
More drivel from Herman
PoR deputy and presidential advisor Hanna Herman, appeared on the 'Svoboda Slova' show yesterday.
In her opinion,"..the Tymoshenko card will be played by opponents of Ukraine to prevent Ukraine's progress forward. Yulia Volodymyrivna, who herself did not wish this, has unwittingly become a mechanism which is being used by enemies of Ukraine in order to prevent Ukraine entering the path of Western development...I believe that having signed the Association [agreement] and having stood firmly on his feet, the Ukrainian president, who is seeking a way out of this situation, will find a way out to alleviate the lot of his opponent. But not under pressure from foreign countries and leaders, not under threat ... no, he will do it from the heights of his mercy, his Christian beliefs and his decency... "
[Herman frequently makes such vaseline-laden statements...E.g. "Yanukovych will become a legend for generations to come, because even in the next hundred years it is hardly likely anyone will be able to repeat what he has managed to do in his life. ]
Herman crazily implied that Ukraine's enemies, knowing what kind of person Tymoshenko was, had somehow engineered the whole scandal in a calculated manner to reduce the country's chances of Euro-integration; Tymoshenko had merely been an 'unwitting tool' in their hands. [23 minutes into the 'Svoboda Slova' video]
According to Herman all of those at the European Court of Human Rights, the world leaders, European parliament etc. who consider Tymoshenko a victim of crude political persecution by Yanukovych, and are demanding her release are, apparently, enemies playing the 'Tymoshenko card'...
It is as if Tymoshenko herself were merely a bargaining chip. or what Herman herself called a card.. perhaps a deal clincher to be tossed into any EU-Ukraine deal if/when this becomes an unavoidable requirement.
Even today, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe has passed another resolution demanding Tymoshenko's release. [See document here]
p.s. Was Yanukovych acting from the 'heights of mercy' and in tune with his Christian beliefs and decency when, as a youth he was mugging victims and stealing their earrings and fur hats - crimes for which he spent three and a half years in jail....
or when he threatened to 'steamroll under asphalt' his political opponents..
Or when he is stealing millions for his dreadful, grotesque OTT palaces, barges, hunting lodges, dachas on the Black sea etc. In a normal country someone with Yanukovych's record would not even get a job as a school janitor..
What drivel from Herman..
In her opinion,"..the Tymoshenko card will be played by opponents of Ukraine to prevent Ukraine's progress forward. Yulia Volodymyrivna, who herself did not wish this, has unwittingly become a mechanism which is being used by enemies of Ukraine in order to prevent Ukraine entering the path of Western development...I believe that having signed the Association [agreement] and having stood firmly on his feet, the Ukrainian president, who is seeking a way out of this situation, will find a way out to alleviate the lot of his opponent. But not under pressure from foreign countries and leaders, not under threat ... no, he will do it from the heights of his mercy, his Christian beliefs and his decency... "
[Herman frequently makes such vaseline-laden statements...E.g. "Yanukovych will become a legend for generations to come, because even in the next hundred years it is hardly likely anyone will be able to repeat what he has managed to do in his life. ]
Herman crazily implied that Ukraine's enemies, knowing what kind of person Tymoshenko was, had somehow engineered the whole scandal in a calculated manner to reduce the country's chances of Euro-integration; Tymoshenko had merely been an 'unwitting tool' in their hands. [23 minutes into the 'Svoboda Slova' video]
According to Herman all of those at the European Court of Human Rights, the world leaders, European parliament etc. who consider Tymoshenko a victim of crude political persecution by Yanukovych, and are demanding her release are, apparently, enemies playing the 'Tymoshenko card'...
It is as if Tymoshenko herself were merely a bargaining chip. or what Herman herself called a card.. perhaps a deal clincher to be tossed into any EU-Ukraine deal if/when this becomes an unavoidable requirement.
Even today, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe has passed another resolution demanding Tymoshenko's release. [See document here]
p.s. Was Yanukovych acting from the 'heights of mercy' and in tune with his Christian beliefs and decency when, as a youth he was mugging victims and stealing their earrings and fur hats - crimes for which he spent three and a half years in jail....
or when he threatened to 'steamroll under asphalt' his political opponents..
Or when he is stealing millions for his dreadful, grotesque OTT palaces, barges, hunting lodges, dachas on the Black sea etc. In a normal country someone with Yanukovych's record would not even get a job as a school janitor..
What drivel from Herman..
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