Oranges feeble reaction to events in Georgia

Today's Ukrainska Pravda runs an article in both Ukrainian and Russian, which describes the uniquely close friendship and ties between Saakashvili and Yushchenko, and Saakashvili and Tymoshenko, and criticizes, [in my view quite correctly] these orange politicians for their feeble reaction to the recent events in Georgia.

"That which happened on 7th November in Tblisi sets very bad precedent. In next few years much can happen in Ukraine. And today's method of resolving the conflict in Georgia can become an example to be copied in the future, not necessarily for Yushchenko, but for another, less democratic, president than the current one.
And the absence of an adequate reaction from the oranges, which should have been made now, may stimulate someone to act in Kyiv in the same way as in Tbilisi."

Georgian lessons

Respected journalist Vitaliy Portnikov, interviewed by the BBC Ukrainian service today, is asked about the lessons Ukraine can draw from recent events in Georgia:

"I agree with Davyd Zhvaniya, who said that it was not right to compare events in Georgia and in Ukraine, because after the events in Kyiv in 2004 the Ukrainian nomenklatura failed to put into place the kind of total control over society and state that the Georgian nomenklatura managed to do. This was because the camps personified by Yushchenko, Tymoshenko, and Yanukovych all have different interests. And in this sense Ukraine is a much more democratic country than Georgia; and in this sense in Ukraine there exists, even in a limited form, freedom in the informational mass media. It is really the differences in interests that rescues Ukrainian society, and this is an important lesson not only for Georgia, by for other countries of the post-Soviet space.

In the Ukrainian variant, there are two routes. There is the direct route to Poland, with its normal democratic system and its participation of society in matters of state. And there is a direct route to Russia, were the nomenklatura finally sits around a round table, comes to an agreement amongst itself and establishes a regime akin to the regimes of Putin and Saakashvili. Today in Ukraine there are the possibilities to go either in one, or in the other direction. And, observing at what is happening in Tbilisi and on what is happening in Moscow, the Ukrainian citizen should simply make his choice between them."

Portnikov is right: it is the seemingly endless knife-edge political struggle between the three main protagonists of Ukrainian politics, of which everyone complains, that is actually the best guarantee for Ukraine's democratic well-being in the future.

In the last presidential elections in Georgia in January 2004, Mikheil Saakashvili received 96% of all votes cast..

Despite sweet words..RosUkrEnergo stays...

"Today's gas import scheme [for importing three-quarters of Ukraine's gas needs from Central Asia and Russia via monopolistic trader RosUkrEnergo] is dubious from the the ethical point of view," said president Yuschenko in an interview several days ago.

Even chairman of Gazprom's board of directors, Dmitriy Medvedev, one of Putin's closest buddies, recently spoke of the possible liquidation of RosUkrEnergo. But, as with many matters in Ukraine, reality is something quite different.

Ekonomichyeskiye Izvyestiya reports that by the end of the week the price of gas for Ukraine for next year will be fixed, but that the annulment of the agreement of 4th January, 2006, whereby RosUkrEnergo was nominated monopolist intermediary for supplying gas to Ukraine until 2011, will not be considered at all.

In spite of statements by President Victor Yushchenko that negotiations on the price of gas for Ukraine must be conducted at intergovermental level, the big decisions will be made by people behind Gazprom, the Ukrainian state gas company Naftogaz Ukrainy, and Swiss-registered middleman RosUkrEnergo. [RUE is 50% owned by Gazprom, and 45% and 5% by Ukrainian front-men Dmitriy Firtash and Ivan Fursin respectively].

'Gazeta po Kyevski' is puzzled why Yushchenko today met Fuel and Energy minister Yuriy Boyko, National Security and Defence Council head Ivan Plyushch, and Minister of Foreign Affairs Arseniy Yatsenyuk, and suggests it was to give secret directives to Boyko before the minister goes to Moscow and the price of Russian gas for 2008 is finalized. The deputy head of the pressa's secretariat also attended. All those present left the encounter without comment.

Yesterday Gazprom had announced that Ukraine's mysterious $2 Bn gas debt had been paid off, but how this huge debt had been allowed to build-up in the first place is unknown. And why is the president entrusting Boyko, a very shady character to say the least, and now a PoR deputy-elect, on such a vital mission? They probably want to sort out gas supply deals with Gazprom/Kremlin before [or just in case] Tymoshenko becomes prime minister again. She has vowed to clean up Ukraine's entire shadowy gas procurement business.

It was Tymoshenko's loyal adjutant Oleksandr Turchynov's investigations in September 2005 when he headed the SBU, into allegedly fraudulent practices involving the transport of Turkmen gas to Ukraine by two companies, Eural Trans Gas and RosUkrEnergo, that eventually led to president Yushchenko dismissing prime minister Tymoshenko and her entire cabinet to the dismay of orange supporters.

RosUkrEnergo is just too efficient and useful a siphon mechanism to be scrapped..

Sweet words butter no parsnips

Tymoshenko to disrupt VAT gravy train?

A big reason why PoR and its businessmen sponsors will do all they can to prevent Tymoshenko becoming PM was highlighted in an article in 'Ekonomicheskiye Izvyestiya' several days ago. The newspaper claims the first legislative initiative of a Tymoshenko-led government would be to sort out the Value Added Tax system and ensure that it is applied in a different manner, so that dubious tax credits and suspicious rebates are eliminated. Hardest hit by such a scheme would be the large export-orientated enterprises - many of which are located in PoR strongholds.

VAT fraud has been a constant problem for Ukraine. The mastermind allegedly behind some of the most serious VAT payment shortfalls is none other than hoary first deputy Prime minister and Finance Minister Mykola Azarov...

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Good background on Boris Penchuk's astonishing volte-face [see previous blog] is provided [in English] in 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya'.

Their article suggests that Kolesnikov was arrested in April 2005 shortly after he had refused to "give away his shares in Rinat Akhmetov’s enterprises" to..Petro Poroshenko, one of Yushchenko's 'dear friends' and head of the National Security and Defence Council at that time.

Incidentally, some photos of Poroshenko's almost completed 'muck heap' here

You couldn't make it up..

A couple of days ago leading editor of the sensational anthology "Donetsk Mafia", Boris Penchuk, admitted at a press conference that he "had slandered Boris Kolesnikov under pressure from the unscrupulous Yuriy Lutsenko." Kolenikov is one of Party of Regions 'top bananas'.

The book is the most detailed collection of articles and photographs on the grizzly events that took place in the Donbas in the early and mid-nineties, that has thus far been published.

At the press conference, attended and 'supervised' by PoR representatives Anna Herman and Halyna Bondarenko, [Boris Kolesnikov’s former press secretary], he claimed that in Spring 2005, representatives from the Ministry of Internal Affairs Ministry, then headed by Yuriy Lutsenko came to him, and 'proposed' he provide evidence against Boris Kolesnikov. [Lutsenko tops the current NU-NS VR list.]

Penchuk said he was subsequently taken by members of the 'organy' to Kyiv, where he was kept under house arrest for several months, and that he was forced to sign a statement which provided evidence for Kolesnikov's arrest. After several months in prison, Kolesnikov was released without charge.

Penchuk now claims his dispute with Kolesnikov was just a "small civil matter...transformed into political repression", adding, "I was a tool in unscrupulous game of an unscrupulous man [Lutsenko]." He said he initiated the press conference to prevent Yuriy Lutsenko ever returning to the Ministry of Internal Affairs in a BYuT-NUNS coalition.

As late as this August, Penchuk was reportedly suspiciously poisoned.

In Donbass today, even many PoR supporters consider that amongst PoR's inner circle, Kolesnikov probably is the one that has most skeletons hidden in his cupboard.

So, a complete volte-face from Penchuk.

Now an article in 'Ekomicheskiye Izvestia' claims head of president Yushchenko's secretariat Viktor Baloha, and Kolesnikov, with whom Baloha has cordial relations, may be behind this campaign to blacken Yuriy Lutsenko and prevent him from gaining the powerful 'sylovyk' position of minister of internal affairs.

The article claims they favour Valeriy Heletey for this position.

This is the same Heletey, currently head of the 'gosokhrana', whom earlier this year colleagues of the then minister of internal affairs Vasyl Tsushko had claimed had poisoned Tsushko. Most accounts said he had suffered a heart attack after leading the storming of the Prosecutor-General's offices.

Heletey, at a press conference on 1st June denied he had had anything to do with any assassination attempt, and called the allegations linking him to Tsushko's illness 'political blackmail'.

Ukrainian politics..you couldn't make it up.

p.s. Russia's sylovyky are poisoning one another too..[cribbed from here?]

Yanukovych not going nowhere

This from today's 'Kommersant-Ukraina'

At yesterday's cabinet of ministers council, Viktor Yanukovych made it clear he intends to continue to work as prime minister. Most surprising to the members of the media and cabinet present was the fact that, it in every way possible, he supports Viktor Yushchenko's initiatives, several times mentioning the leading role of the President among the institutions of state authority.

He read out his half-hour speech speech at the beginning of the meeting, concentrating not on the events of the past week, but on the forecast of trends of development of the country over the intermediate and long term. The signal given by Yanukovych is he is not intent to leave the post of the Head of Government.

Officials present in the hall were the same opinion, making comments to correspondents to the effect: "Yes, this is the broad coalition road map".

Viktor Yanukovych reminded those present that the election process was complete and soon parliament will renew its work. He named the productive collaboration of parliament and government as their primary task, after calling upon the President to become the guarantor of this collaboration.

The premier then enumerated questions, on which he intends to concentrate the attention his government; in particular the adoption of the state budget, entry of Ukraine into the WTO, acceleration of judicial and agrarian reforms, and overcoming growing inflation.

Yanukovych declared a readiness to acknowledge "errors of the past". "We, and you, should recognize them, and highlight them," he said. The prime minister supported Viktor Yushchenko's ideas on reforming the political system in the country: "The contradictions which exist today must be removed, spheres competence regulated, and a new a hierarchy of democratic state institutions constructed," said Viktor Yanukovych.

The Head of Government reported that without a shadow of doubt, efforts of the branches of authority will be soon united. He several times mentioned the President as the higher authority of decision making. The Premier even intends to examine the question of increases in prices of the basic commodities together with the head of state. Among other things, Mr. Yanukovych promised to soon conduct a session of government dedicated to check whether orders of the President and government are being fulfilled. Several months ago he had declared that the President does not have a right to give to the government instructions.

However, when Viktor Yanukovych spoke of reformation of the economy of the country, he took up a position different to that of the President. The PM considers the role of state in the regulation of the economy must be increased, and called the stance of politicians who ask the KabMin not to interfere in market processes: "economically short-sighted and politically irresponsible".

The priority of the government according to Yanukovych is fighting price increases. He is even ready on Friday 2nd November, together with the President, to take part in an extended conference with experts and leaders of local organs of authority, in order to resolve this question. He accused the latter of inactivity on tackling price increase. The Head of Government gave special attention to increases in the prices of the petroleum products.

He directed fuel and energy minister Yuriy Boyko to complete negotiations with Gazprom on the price of gas for Ukraine within the next ten days. "We all heard the President expressing his position on this subject, that the price of gas, [mentioned by representatives of Russia] is unacceptable for Ukraine. According to our calculations, it should not be above $150-160 per thousand cu.m." noted the premier. He called Ukrainian delegation to raise the question of revision of cost and delivery of gas in the Ukraine. in the course of negotiations with the Russian side.

It is remarkable however, that during his appearance Mr. Yanukovych did not mention the possibility of increasing transit tariffs for gas passing over the territory of Ukraine. But Yuriy Boyko, who left immediately after the appearance of premier, reported that this question will also be brought up during negotiations.

LEvko thinks Yanuk is being smart. The now traditional parliamentary coalition-building is looking a bit shaky, [will it be as Victor Chernomyrdin once commented on an earlier failure: "We hoped for the best, but things turned out as usual?" ] The prime minister and cabinet are rising above this to give the impression that they [and now with the president, it seems] are running the country. Yanuk is aware that the price to be paid for a broad PoR-NUNS coalition is his own head [see my previous postings on this]

'Regiony' spokesmen are more openly talking about 'serious concessions', 'serious compromises', and about 'controversial questions' being removed beyond the [negotiation] framework' during the creation of a broad coalition, when its platform is being formed'.

Yanukovych on the slide?

Interesting speculation in 'Kommentarii' this week, some of which I have paraphrased below:

'Regionaly' will never again achieve the hegemony attained in 2006, and painful transformations await the party. Their strategic plan to achieve total power in the country by assembling a constitutional majority in the VR fell through, and drove Yushchenko to call for new elections.

Even if a PoR-NUNS coalition is eventually formed, this will be a serious loss of face for PoR because they will have to make concessions to their junior partner, NUNS, e.g. on the Russian language issue and on NATO.

The President will never give back the PM's job to 'Regionaly', nor the posts of ministers of Finances or Justice, nor control over the energy sphere.

Yushchenko has tightened his grip on the 'sylovyky' structures and will not share these with PoR. Only the economic and social- humanitarian ministries would be distributed amongst PoR. However a wide coalition would have some advantages for PoR - retention at least some power would safeguard the party from division and would give them breathing space to consider a strategy for the 2009 presidential elections. Most of the groups in PoR positively support the creation of a wide coalition. Only Viktor Yanukovych and his circle would be dissatisfied with the formation of a wide coalition because it would leave him without a clear role in the party.

It would be difficult for him to be appointed VR speaker or PoR fraction leader. Yanukovych's future career prospects would probably be best enhanced by a spell as shadow premier - he would remain a highly prominent political figure up to the next Presidential election campaign in late 2009.

But the possibility of PoR being an active party of opposition would not entirely suit Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine's richest oligarch and PoR sponsor. It was Akmetov that compromised with Yushchenko in the spring by agreeing to early re-elections. If PoR have to go into opposition Akhmetov will maintain a policy of soft interrelations with the government authorities.

At the moment a temporary internal truce exists within PoR's top echelons, as indicated by the composition of their working group preparing the first session of the new VR. It comprises representatives from each wing of party: Yanukovych himself, Raisa Bohatyryova, Mykola Aazarov, Andriy Klyuev [who apparently has cordial ties to Yuriy Lutsenko], Volodymyr Rybak, and Serhiy Levochkin.

The benefits of the wide coalition for the majority of the members of party are obvious but whatever the status of PoR turns out to be, their informal leader Akhmetov will want to get rid of Yanukovych who will have to take the blame for losing the elections.

However, there are two big problems - first there is no clear replacement for Viktor Fedorovich, who remains very popular with his electorate and with a substantial part of the party's members. If the Party of Regions nevertheless join some kind of democratic alliance and Yanukovych is replaced, it is unlikely he would want to walk off the political stage volutarily. He could split the party and create his own political force in order to fill the niche of leader of the formal opposition.

The non Donetskiite 'Regionaly' in particular will strive for closer co-operation with the orange authorities, something which is already happening, e.g. in Odessa and in Luhansk.

Withdrawal to opposition and the "opportunistic" position Of Rinat Akhmetov could return PoR to their roots, i.e. make it an exclusively regional project, as in 2002. These elections seem to indicate that "Regionaly" have passed the peak of electoral success and are now beginnig to slowly lose votes.

No Ukrainian referendum on NATO for years in

Yushchenko postpones any referendum on Ukraine's NATO membership for many years into the future.

"As regards formal membership or non-membership, this is a question that will be put to the nation, and the nation will give its consent, but this will happen not in the next year or two, but after many years, when Ukraine will have matured properly for such an answer to such a question," said Yushchenko to journalists after laying flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Kyiv to mark the 63rd anniversary of Ukraine's liberation from Nazis.

More from Interfax in English here

At last some common sense from the president.

US view on corruption in Ukraine

A hefty report entitled 'Corruption, Democracy, and Investment in Ukraine' from the Washington-based Atlantic Council of the United States, has just been published. Read it here

A couple of quotes:

"Atlantic Council Task Force..found that across the political spectrum, Ukraine’s political elite agrees, with few exceptions, that corruption has become a threat to the country’s democratic future and economic prosperity.

Following the Orange Revolution, the Ukrainian government, as well as foreign governments and NGOs, began to address this issue through a range of legislative and administrative initiatives, including ratifying several international conventions against corruption, establishing governmental working groups, and cooperating with international advisory groups.

It is the judgment of the Task Force that the vast majority of these anti-corruption efforts have proven ineffective. Ukraine’s extended political stalemate, a corrupt judicial system, and a failure in political leadership on all sides have allowed a widespread “culture of corruption” in Ukraine to persist.

This has been exacerbated by a rise in international organized crime, which, paired with corruption in all branches of power, has the potential to make the Ukrainian government vulnerable to foreign political and economic influences, potentially endangering Ukraine’s national security."

"It is the conclusion of the Atlantic Council Task Force that nothing is more important to Ukraine’s long term economic and political health than combating corruption."


Thanks Adam

Poroshenko speaks

Today former Nasha Ukraina 'big beast' Petro Poroshenko was interviewed on Radio Svoboda, by his former Channel 5 employee Roman Skrypin. Some of the exchanges are interesting..

Question - Do you consider, Petro Oleksiyovych, that something or someone could prevent Yuliya Volodymyrivna becoming Premier?

Answer - I believe that today the coalition [is endangered by] a huge number of threats. When talking of its likelyhood, I would say 50-50. I would not get carried away by illusory hopes that everything will turn out well. This does not mean that I wish this, though. But it does mean, that I am very lucky that today the responsibility for creating or not creating the coalition is carried by politicians [and not by me].

In the interview he claims that since the elections he has had 8 or 10 meetings with Tymoshenko, at her request, and praises her for conducting her campaign in a brilliant manner. He also claims that he was asked both by Tymoshenko and by Yanukovych to serve in their cabinets.

Poroshenko, one of the infamous 'lyubi druzhi' was a member of Yushchenko's inner circle during the orange revolution. His constant squabbling with Tymoshenko, when she was PM and he was head of the National Security and Defence Council after the orange revolution, caused Yushchenko to sack Poroshenko and the entire Tymoshenko cabinet.

He was not on the NUNS election list, so will not be entering the newly elected VR. He is currently head of the National Bank of Ukraine council, which is, according to the constitution, a non political position.

Oh, this is the 1000th posting on F.N.

NUNS in big trouble

Yuriy Yekhanurov is rocking the boat again today, as is Ivan Plyushch who has refused to sign the latest BYuT-NUNS agreement.

As usual, during the elections it was BYuT, this time assisted by young 'radicals' such as Lytsenko and Kyrylenko from NUNS, that did the 'heavy lifting' while Yekhanurov and their ilk skulked in the background. Now the elections are over, true to form, out they crawl..

Going pear-shaped* already..

Former PM and now NUNS deputy Yuriy Yekhanurov has called upon the BYuT-NUNS coalition to begin negotiations with PoR and the Lytvyn bloc.

"If we lock ourselves only in our political forces and do hear our [other] parliamentary colleagues, then, in actual fact, the election will not have brought any results, and the division of the country continues. We have to hear one other," said Yekhanurov.

He also warned that he will leave Our Ukraine if his proposals on the coalition with BYuT and the creation of a coalition are not listened to at tomorrow's session of the party presidium.

Earlier Yekhanurov stated, that it is not entirely understandable, why the leaders of NUNS "began to crawl before Yulia Volodymyrivna" without fully agreeing of positions between the two blocs.

Yekhanurov replaced Tymoshenko when she was sacked by Yushchenko in September 2005, but Tymshenko 'put the boot in' by supporting a no confidence vote in January 2006 during that winter's gas crisis.

*To go pear-shaped - to go wrong, to fall apart, to get out of control or to fail. Primarily a British expression. Origin uncertain - possibly Royal Air Force acrobatic pilots describing malformed 'looping the loop' trails. Or, unkind description of aging process of humans.

Too nice a chap

An article in 'Gazeta po Kiyevski' says that, unsurprisingly, PoR are doing all they can to drive wedges between BYuT and NUNS and ensure their frail democratic coalition never gets off the launch pad. They say the nomination of Vyacheslav Kirilenko, Nasha Ukraina's #1 and NUNS#2, as speaker of the VR is particularly vulnerable to attack.

Some of NU's older hands consider the 39-year old Kirilenko too young and just too pally- pally to Tymoshenko. Kirilenko has little experience of business and is not closely linked to any financial or industrial group - they don't like him in the president's secretariat. They would prefer someone more immersed in the shadier side of Ukrainian politics, someone who would be more acceptable to PoR. Veteran former VR speaker Ivan Plyushch may fit the bill: he favours a grand coalition, and would make its creation more likely in the new VR. It would only be a matter of 'convincing' several orange deputies using the usual methods; and PoR would throw their weight behind Plyushch if BYuT got stroppy.

As others have noted, many of Ukraine's leaders have skeletons in their cupboards, and kompromat on one another. They have developed their own kind of modus vivendi. Kirilenko is just 'too nice a chap' to be trusted .. and the voting in the VR to elect a speaker is by secret ballot..

Looking forward, in the long run Tymoshenko is, in some ways, in a win-win situation. Since last March's elections she has gained 1.5 million extra voters. If a BYuT-NUNS coalition were to fail to be formed and a broad PoR-NUNS coalition came into being, Yushchenko's popularity would decline even further. Because the latest elections have yet again shown Ukraine to have a slight inbuilt orange majority, by the time the next presidential elections come around [in January 2010] , or any further extraordinary VR elections take place, she and her party would be confident of outright victory. But if during this time the PoR-NUNS coalition were to clean up their act, reduce corruption and deliver the goods to the electorate...Isn't this what democracy is about?

p.s. Rumour has it Yanukovych has gone off for a few days to the seaside, maybe jealous that Yushchenko and Tymoshenko are living it up and rubbing shoulders EU leaders in Lisbon. Or maybe he is not talking with Akhmetov right now while Rinat's people are wearing out the carpet in the pres's secretariat..

Some sensible ideas

A possible solution of the the sticky problem of forming a workable coalition in the VR could lie in sub-divisions of the main political parties somehow co-operating on important matters of state.

As Andriy Hromish concludes in an interesting piece in 'Kyiv Weekly' [I've paraphrased it a bit]:

Today Ukrainian society strongly associates the president and the premier with particular political colours. Ukrainians of all colours perceive a broad coalition as a betrayal of interests of both the orange and white-and-blue camps. So, the formation of a coalition of factions of different political camps could break this stereotype and safeguard Ukraine from any major tremors in society.

An article in 'Ekonomicheskye Izvestiya' suggests factions exist in PoR who maybe could go along with this kind of arrangement. I've translated some bits:

Akhmetov and Yanukovych propose their services
A fight is progressing for a 'gold share' for Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yushchenko between Rinat Akhmetov's wing and Viktor Yanukovych's wing of Party of Regions. A source in the pres's secretariat told E-Izvestiya: "Yushchenko absolutely consciously relates to the fact that 228 votes is too few for an effective coalition".

The source said that, in the opinion of the President, for the solution of the major problems e.g. the new constitution, regulating relations between the branches of goverment, between government and opposition, the imperative mandate, the cancellation of the parliamentary immunity and privileges etc. it is not absolutely necessary to have a formal coalition.

"In this situation Yushchenko is counting on the support of the moderate wing of PoR, particularly in the person or Rinat Akhmetov and his team. But negotiations between them are not all smooth - Akhmetov has stringent demands. The one thing that unites them is their striving for stability at different levels of authority," emphasized the source.

"The President is attempting to create such conditions in the rada that even with a limited coalition, legislative work can be accomplished in a normal stable manner."

Two days ago premier Viktor Yanukovych stated that in the new rada it would not possible to create the one-color coalition: "We will make efforts in order to unite Ukraine so that the people can live in stable conditions, and the authorities can work effectively".

Another source in the secretariat, said, "The question remains open: does Yanukovych oppose the moderate wing of PoR or not? In this respect Yanukovych it fighting for his place in PoR. But the President is thus far distrustful and is suspiciously disposed to the present premier."

According to the source, Yushchenko is also looking for votes, particularly on key issues, amongst deputies in Lytvyn's bloc: "The ex-speaker [Lytvyn] does not want formally to enter into any coalition. Indeed Lytvyn understands that he will be a junior partner among the others and that his opinion, will rarely be decisive. This does not correspond to the ambitions of Lytvyn, but he is ready for pragmatic collaboration if necessary."

Yanukovych, in the opinion of the source, does not believe the promises of the head of state and leaders of BYuT and NUNS to create acceptable conditions for the opposition: "The doubts of premier are understandable - earlier there was no talk of such conditions, and thus far they do not exist. This is one of the themes of his personal negotiations with the President: the opposition must become a reliable tool of control from the first days of work of the 6th convocation of the VR."

PoR spokesman Vasyl Kiselev refutes that there are different groups of influence in his party: Several of our leaders have made specific efforts to try and find common language with our opponents. Akhmetov and Bogatyryova went to see the President. But not once did Bohatyryovva go to see the President or Baloha without Yanukovych's knowledge."

Also in Ukrainian here

Seems that the main players are approaching the problem of forming a workable parliament in a mature and sensible manner. Whether anything comes of their efforts remains to be seen.

p.s. In the meantime the law courts have to sort out challenges to the election results from the Socialists, the Communist party and from another minor party, before the results of the elections can be officially declared.

It looks suspiciously as if all these legal submissions had a single source - the seriously creepy Serhiy Kivalov - one of the main orange revolution election fraudsters, now a PoR deputy.

Details of Kyiv land grab revealed

Check out this story from the recently much improved 'Kyiv Post' before it goes to subs. only. I've put it into my blog to illustrate again that there are no angels in Ukrainian politics. This story will 'have legs'..

Also check out excellent piece on the latest gas crisis, also from 'K.P.'

What happens next?

On Monday evening BYuT and NUNS signed a declaration of intent to work together as a ruling coalition in the VR, having gained 228 seats.

Their relationship has to be formalized at the first session of the new, sixth convocation, of the VR. The Central Election Commission has completed its tasks on time, but the date of this first plenary session of parliament has not yet been determined by a special preparatory group comprising representatives from each fraction entering the new VR. The group sets the agenda for that day, as well as the appointing a temporary presidium, sorting out the seating arrangements etc.

According to the most optimistic forecasts this session will not take place earlier than the last few days of this month.

Much can change in that time. "Regionaly" could regroup, and try a new tack in order to avoid going into opposition. Or the newly-formed democratic coalition could fall out over cabinet seats or other details.

According to Taras Chornovil, one of PoR's 'mouthpieces', Regiony may even be prepared to sacrifice Yanukovych and force him to 'fall on his microphone' in exchange for a broad coalition.

And Yushchenko today appointed a Lytvynite to head the Mykolayiv oblast state administration [a little sweetener, on account maybe?]

Lytvyn's bloc, which gained 20 seats in the new VR, will not even discuss who they will support for PM until a majority coalition is formally assembled in the new VR. If this coalition has an orange hue, then their bloc will consider this question at that time, said one of Lytvyn's boys.

A former British PM once said, "A week is a long time in politics."

'Segodnya' speculates PoR may block the functioning of the new VR, preventing any voting on cabinet posts. They are particularly annoyed the oranges will attempt to reverse the law on the Cabinet of Ministers that reduced presidential powers, which BYuT had supported earlier this year.

And if Yushchenko has second thoughts on a Tymoshenko premiership at any time, he has only has to whisper in the ear of a few NU deputies to press the 'Against' button..

Bandera statue

Last weekend a statue of Ukrainian nationalist leader Stepan Bandera was unveiled in Lviv.

Rather embarrassingly, some observers say the statue resembles those of Lenin, erected in many Ukrainian cities in the latter half of the last century. There are particularly close similarities to the one constructed in the typical social realism style, that still stands in downtown Kyiv [see photo].

The Lviv newspaper 'Vysokyi Zamok' points out the similar postures - arm on lapel, coat caught in the breeze, the purposeful revolutionary stride with left foot forward..Oh dear..

LEvko says Bandera was not politician or a public figure, rather the head of an underground national liberation organization. Does the statue portray this?

Fragile BYuT-NUNS coalition formed

Tonight, in the offices of the presidential secretariat, the leaders of BYuT and NUNS signed a statement on their intent to form a coalition in the newly elected VR.

The 'Donbass' newspaper, in its report, includes this:

"So the working format of [BYuT-NUNS] coalition has been revealed. But Volodymyr Lytvyn's silence is causing the potential partners to be nervous. Several times during recent days they have made clear hints [that they would like him on board too] but Lytvyn has persistently failed to react.

Without him, their [BYuT-NUNS] coalition appears very risky - the absence of just three deputies means they cannot carry a motion in the VR. And if Yuriy Yekhanurov, or any other three deputies refuse to vote for Tymoshenko's premiership - everything will collapse. So the process of negotiation has entered a new phase - more intense and quick. That the President did not invite representatives PoR and CPU to today's encounter shows what kind of coalition he wants to see. But no one knows what the result will be."

BYuT-NUNS have gained 228 seats in the 450 seat parliament. Lytvyn's bloc gained 20 seats. PoR and Communists together gained 202 seats.

Without Lytvyn the wheels will drop off very quickly..Maybe that's why PoR are playing it cool too..

Sylovyky to be under Pres's control in orange coalition

BYuT and NUNS have not yet submitted their coalition agreement to the president, but should do so Monday or Tuesday.

Whether the Orange BYuT-NUNS coalition will garner 226+ votes required in the newly-assembled VR is a different matter.

However, is seems they have now managed to 'divvy up' the ministers chairs and 'spheres of responsibility'.

The proposals will make grim reading to many. BYuT will get the economic and fuel and energy portfolios, whilst the 'sylovyky' organs have been 'bagsied' [called dibs] by Yushchenko and NUNS.

At the moment Lytvyn and his boys seem to be out of the equation entirely, but it looks as if the vice PM responsible for fuel and energy may be Vitaliy Hayduk, a wise choice.

By retaining control of the 'sylovyky' Yushchenko can be sure no one will be 'sniffing around' suspect deals involving him and his closest circle, or deals he may have made with the Kuchmistas during the orange revolution. The primary reason for Yushchenko sacking PM Tymoshenko in September 2005 was SBU head Oleksandr Turchynov's investigations into RosUkrEnergo and its links to the president's closest confidantes. Turchynov is probably Tymoshenko closest partner. A reminder of what this was about here.

I also recommend an article by Tetyana Chornovil [in Ukr] from 'Obozrevatel' about Viktor Pinchuk, former president Kuchma's son in law, and his 115 hectare estate - a former rehab and convalescence complex which was acquired by the most dubious of methods. He has even managed to wangle a no-fly zone over it, something even the president does not have over his 'pile'. The no-fly zone also covers Pinchuk's neigbours the Klyuyevs, and the Kolomoyskis.

After the O.R. when Tymoshenko was PM, she and Minister of the Interior at that time Yuriy Lutsenko tried to get to the bottom of how this estate came into Pinchuk's hands, but failed, probably because the alleged immunity granted to Kuchma by Yushchenko also covered his close family.

Pinchuk, one of Ukraine's richest men, has now morphed into global philantropist, in the words of the song "friend of stars, presidents and the pope in Rome." More on the great man from his own foundation site here . His family tie up with Kuchma does not merit a mention - obviously completely insignificant in the growth of his business empire.

Tatyana Chornovil, who during her investigations was seriously 'leant on' and threatened by Pinchuk's security goons, ends her article: "Interestingly, when on the second day after the elections Yushchenko made his baffling declaration on the necessity of creating a broad coalition, there were boisterous celebrations at Pinchuk's estate. On that day nearly all political leaders were disorientated, angry and troubled, but at the Pinchuk's and Kuchma's there were salutes.
I'll bet there were...

President double-dealing as usual

Here's some interesting speculation from 'Gazeta po Kiyevski':

On 8th October the president met the leaders of the parties that will enter the new parliament and gave them five days to sort out a coalition, submit a candidate for prime minister, and a program of action for the future KabMin.

Public negotiations between NUNS and BYuT (and behind-the-scenes negotiations between NUNS and PoR) are far from complete. The main stumbling block is no one wants to give up the PM's chair, or satisfy the president's increasing appetite - he now wants to assign the minister of the interior too.

BYuT and NUNS keep saying they have almost completed their arrangements...but not quite. Sticking points seem to be program details, including changing laws on the KabMin. For Yushchenko these laws presents a significant danger because they considerably truncate his authority and increase the authority of potential premier Tymoshenko.

'GpoK' claims the president's reaction to this week's brief standoff with Gazprom/Kremlin on the $2Bn 'gas debt' has been half-hearted, and suggests an explanation for this.

While one part of NUNS have been occupied with public negotiations involving Yuriy Lutsenko and Vyacheslav Kirilenko and BYuT, conversations have been taking place at the president's secretariat where Viktor Baloga has met representatives of PoR, in particular Andriy Klyuev,and even Rinat Akhmetov. [Sounds familiar?]

There has been little reaction from President Yushchenko to the signing by Minister of Fuel and Energy (and future PoR deputy) Yuriy Boyko of a mysterious agreement on the liquidation of the "gas debt". He may not have even seen details of the agreement.

Today Yushchenko sent Yanukovych a letter criticizing the projected budget for 2008, but did not point out Minister of Finance Mykola Azarov's increases in benefits for deputies and high ranking state officials.

The reasons for the president's attitude may be that it just wouldn't look right for him to criticize the Party of Regions whilst behind-the-scenes negotiations with them are taking place, and then possibly even going into coalition with the same people shortly afterwards.