Huge obstacle, or "irritant"?

In an 'FT' blog entitled "Ukraine says Tymoshenko an ‘irritant’ to EU ties" Ukraine’s foreign minister, Kostyantyn Gryshchenko, today acknowledged that the former prime minister had become more of a problem for his government in jail than free, noting her imprisonment has made an “association agreement” with EU almost impossible to finalise. “We [see] this issue as a certain irritant which obviously is not helping to move ahead with a positive agenda with the European Union." 

Foreign Minister Gryshchenko admits: ".. for the last 20 years almost every government official at the highest level presumed that they would never be asked to answer questions about their actions that were contradicting the law."

These actions by 'almost every government official that were contradicting the law' were almost always taken for self-enrichment.

Most of Gryshchenko's current cabinet colleagues, the current President, and members of his administration have held high office for many years in previous governments. Why aren't any them facing charges?

By charging and sentencing only their most feared opponents: former PM Yulia Tymoshenko and former Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko, accusations of selective justice will inevitably be made against today's authorities.

Ukraine's leaders remain amongst the most corrupt in Europe.

The face of an idiot

Party of Regions' parliamentary deputy Vladislav Lukyanov [see picture] has bragged on his facebook page how he drove the 440 km between Kyiv and Odesa in 2 hours 40 minutes - despite a blanket 110 km/hour speed limit. He even posted a photograph with the speedometer of his Audi A8 showing 241 km/hour as he was driving. 

He can do this because of he is protected from prosecution by parliamentary immunity.

What a complete and idiot... what a complete a***hole. 

Lukyanov is a high-profile politician, frequently seen in the mass media...always available for a comment - particularly to rubbish the opposition.

In a normal country his party would kick him out so fast his feet would not touch the ground following such an incident...

Could there a better example of mindless arrogant behaviour to demonstrate what kind of morons run the country..

p.s. Ukraine has one of the highest traffic-related death rates in Europe. E.g. about 5 times as many people are killed on the roads per capita per annum, than in the United Kingdom, where there is a blanket 70 miles per hour [112 km.hr] speed limit on motorways. There are, astonishingly, over 20 times as many road fatalities per 100,000 vehicles in Ukraine, that in the UK, per annum.

War against independent news media declared [updated]

"State Tax Service: Criminal case opened against TVi director over evasion of payment of Hr 3 million in taxes"

"Prosecutor's office opens criminal case against LB.ua on violation based on Landik's claims"
[Announcement by Kyiv City Prosecutor's office here]

My previous blog on this topic here

The Lb.ua site has been erratic today - at time of posting all that is being displayed is 'temna makhorka' i.e. head of president's administration Lyovochkin  - deputy prosecutor-general Kuzmin  - vice PM Khoroshkovsky - presidential judicial system adviser Portnov..

cf:  "Yanukovych calls on local authorities to ensure election campaign is fair" 

p.s. The Akhmetov-owned 'Segodnya' have given the Lb.ua story prominence...

Khoroshkovsky has now publicly distanced himself from the attack on Lb.ua....But he  has has certainly directed heavy fire onto TVi in the past.

Could this be just a sign of an internal feud inside the party of power... or are these two cases examples of simple personal vindictiveness, or part of a wider attack on the media?

Update: Prominent journalist Mustafa Nayem places the blame for this attack against press freedom firmly at Yanukovych's door.  Lb.ua's chief editor Sonya Koshkina, in comments on her publication's site is more cautious and hints 'el presidente' may be above the fray - perhaps to provide some 'wiggle room' for an honourable backdown...but she does say:  "The scale of the persecution means no one has any doubt: the joking has long finished, this war is a matter of life and death and they've gone for us seriously... I assume many would be pleased to see me on the scaffold..."

The mugshots above are of guys who tend to be associated with Firtash, RosUkrEnerho and the so-called gas lobby, rather than that of the Donbass 'metalbashers'

Update 2: "The president is concerned about the recent events around the Ukrainian media" including those surrounding LB.ua and TVi,  according to the official presidential site..

Too late pal, these bully-boy tactics make you all look like a**holes.. The little guys have made you eat dirt....

p.s. 'K.P.' reports : "The prosecutor's office in Kyiv has denied reports on the opening of a criminal case against the LB.ua online news site, as claimed by the publication, citing its own sources." What bungling incompetent liars - see link to Kyiv City Prosecutor's office above...

But 'the evil empire' will already be plotting it's revenge for this humiliation..

p.p.s. CNN's report on Tvi here 

Independent TVi under assault by Yanukovych's tax goons

Ukraine's only independent TV channel, which, i.m.o. employs some of the country's best journalists,  has been under attack by the Ukrainian tax authorities for many weeks. 

Yanukovych and his son have a total grip on the levers of power. The head of the state tax service Klimenko, the head of the ministry of interior Zakharchenko, head of state security [SBU], Kalinin, and prosecutor general's office top knobs Pshonka and Kuzmin are 100% Yanukovych loyalists. They are shamelessly conducting an assault on independent media in the country in order to neutralise them before the next parliamentary elections. 

A trumped up tax evasion criminal case has now been opened against one of TVi's most prominent front-men and general director, Mykola Knyazhytsky,  He has responded in an open letter to the president published on 'Ukrainska Pravda' site. 

All this despite the Ukrainian State Tax Service's announcement on March 30th this year on its website, that it will not be conducting any tax checks on the mass media in the second quarter of the current year in order to provide them with "all the  [necessary] conditions for objective illumination of the [October parliamentary] election campaign"

A few days ago I blogged about the disgraceful attack on the independent LB.ua website which has driven its top journalist to seek refuge abroad until she receives an undertaking that the absurd case against her and the site is dropped.

Most television channels, newspapers and other mass media are controlled by wealthy oligarchic Party of Regions' supporters already - their news broadasts and current events programmes are heavily biassed. Tvi and Lb.ua are in a disadvantagous position..now they are being squeezed even harder. 


p.s. This blog was temporarily closed down recently by what was described as 'suspicious activity'. LEvko may be moving to another site soon, if this continues...

Warning on language

Kyiv Dynamo fans protested against the possible adoption of new laws which could enhance the status of so-called minority languages, including Russian, during Saturday's Dynamo vs Metallurg Donetsk soccer match.

Watch video here:

 The banner reads: :Ukraine has 46 million tongues - but one language" 

The fans lustily sang the national anthem of Ukraine..

LEvko's view? Most demo's in Ukraine are staged for money ...this looks for real....

P.S. However you look at it, Yanukovych was humiliated by Putin last Thursday.

Their tete a tete, which was delayed by four hours, was preceeded by Putin's meeting with 'The Night Wolves' and their leader who goes by the name of 'Surgeon'. After their meeting he popped in to see Viktor Medvedchuk to look at his musical fountain. Watch video here

Medvedchuk, who was Kuchma's grey cardinal, sees Ukraine's future firmly in Russia's orbit.

A man with Putin's  St Petersburg KGB background will inevitably have a disdain for the likes of Yanukovych who was brought up in the rundown criminalised hinterland of Yenakiyeve and spent three and a half years in prison for violent crimes..

Who pays what for gas...

Serhiy Vlasenko, in his 'Kommersant' blog,  posts details of a recent article from the authoritative Polish 'Gazeta Wyborcza.biz' site.

The graphic below, from the article, shows the price in dollars per t.c.m. charged by Gazprom to countries in Europe for their gas.

This is the reason why, despite all of the hot air, the president's administration will not be challenging the allegedly scandalous Tymoshenko gas contract until at least 2018....

Language issue is contrived says Iosif Kobzon

Legendary Soviet and Russian pop singer, long-time member of the Russian State Duma, Iosif Kobzon, attended a ceremony celebrating the 80th anniversary of Donetsk region where he was born and where he is revered. 


During the festivities he and president Yanukovych even sang a rather overblown duet together - 'My mother [is] Ukraine, my father.. Donbas'... 

Kobzon was asked by a 'Novosti Donbassa' journalist for his opinion on the current Russian/Ukrainian language scandal. He did not understand why the status of Russian needed to be changed.

"...who today gets in the way of anyone speaking in parliament in Russian? Who obstructs anyone speaking Russian in Donbas? And would anyone be surprised if any of you were to speak in Ukrainian? So, it's a contrived political conflict, which I hope, will be resolved without any particularly serious consequences", said the Russian singer. 

My guess is most Ukrainians who live in the region think the same way...

p.s. If you are interested in this sort of thing, I couldn't help noticing....Kobzon has a very peculiar hair-line...

p.s.

MONACO DECLARATION AND RESOLUTIONS ADOPTED BY THE OSCE PARLIAMENTARY ASSEMBLY AT THE TWENTY-FIRST ANNUAL SESSION: MONACO, 5 to 9 JULY 2012

Pdf version available at this link at  "Final declaration in English

Resolution on Ukraine at page 17...

Also this on the Magnitsky case: "Calls on national parliaments to take action to impose visa sanctions and asset freezes on persons responsible for the false arrest, torture, denial of medical care and death of Sergei Magnitsky,.."  Could cause some furrowed brows on Ukraine's mount Olympus..

Own goal after Euros

PoR bulldozed the second reading of their language bill through parliament on Tuesday, trampling over procedural rules to force through this most controversial of policies. A host of voting irregularities took place - speaker Lytvyn is set to resign.

PoR could have basked for a while in the afterglow of a reasonably successful Euro 2012 football competition. They have chosen not to do so and as a result have infuriated a large portion of the electorate.

The new policy will become law if and when it is signed off by the president.

What the authorities' language policy does is provide is a totem around which the opposition can unite - as can be seen in the today's protests outside the 'Ukrainskiy Dim' where the president was to deliver a grandiose press conference. This has now been cancelled - providing the opposition an easy victory. They can say despite the appearance of phalanxes of 'space cadets' he chickened out...

The arrogance of his party colleagues has forced Yanukovych to now face what could be the greatest crisis of his presidency so far.

The president faces an dilemma - but the damage has been done. Whether he and PoR back down or continue with this policy, this crisis could turn out to be the start of the turning of the political tide.

The Euros - and what could have been

The Euro 2012 football competition has ended. 

Despite some shortcomings, most Ukrainians across the land have experienced a genuine feelgood factor such events bring to a host country. When pushed they have shown they can deliver a world-standard event, (even if its pure financial benefits are a matter of conjecture).  One blogger writes,  the granting of half the tournament presented Ukraine with a challenge. These included strict closely monitored deadlines set by Europeans, which were successfully met by the country. The project could have been a fine template for any Euro-integrational plans.

The project was also footballing joint venture between a fully paid-up member of the EU - Poland, and a country that right now is not even a candidate member. The test of practical compatibility was successfully passed; but it should also have been the start of an entirely new relationship between Ukraine, its greatest promoter inside the EU, and the EU itself.  This has been still-born. The possibility of ratification of any EU-Ukraine association agreement is receding into the distance, and we all know the reason for this...

The British 'Independent' wishfully notes in a recent editorial: "With the successful Euro 2012 under its belt, Ukraine, it must now be hoped, will take another look at the state of its own politics and how it measures up to the Europe it still aspires to join. Reconsidering the prosecution and imprisonment of the former Prime Minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, must be part of that."

Ukraine's small-scale entrepreneurs at the end of their tether

Just watched Vitaliy Portnikov's latest 'Politklub' tv programme on-line about the ever-increasing difficulties being faced by Ukraine's small and medium-sized businesses and traders as they are, to an ever-greater degree, being systematically squeezed by corrupt state officials, tax collectors and 'business raiders'. The atmosphere in the studio was sombre. Some called the process a second phase of 'oligarchization' of the country.


These are the people on whom the future prosperity of the country to a great extent depends.

Astonishingly, according to the programme, ever-more of their number are moving from Ukraine to Belarus to do business -  there, they say, at least  they know where they stand....

The small-scale entrepreneurs taking part in the programme feel very badly let down by Party of Regions and  the president - they are at the end of their tether. You get the feeling that if the October elections are significantly 'fiddled'  their anger may well spill out onto the streets..

Independent Ukrainian news website under serious threat..[Updated]

In the past your blogger has referred to articles from the 'Lyeviy Bereg' site, now 'lb.ua', on many occasions.

The independent lb.ua site posts articles by many authors, including some who strongly pro-ruling authorities as well those who are highly critical.The site is a project of the Gorshenin Institute  - who also publish this excellent weekly newsletter in English

Several of the site's staff, including well-known journalist Sonya Koshkina could now be facing criminal charges for doing their job - in particlar for writing about the severe beating last year of a young woman by Roman Landyk, son of a prominent PoR parliamentary deputy. The case was prominently covered across the entire Ukrainian media because is cast a spotlight on the frequently boorish, lawless behaviour of Ukraine's ruling elite and their children.

An Lb.ua photographer managed to take readable photographs of Landyk Sr. sending SMS messages whilst attending a pleniary parliamentary session. The photographs were taken quite openly from the journalist's gallery overlooking the main chamber of parliament where photographers are permitted to sit. There was nothing illicit or underhand in the way the photographs were taken. Deputies are well aware that everything they do in the main chamber is under scrutiny.

"From the contents of the SMS it is clear that in order to optimize his son’s image, Landik Senior is engaging political technologists as well as journalists from the Luhansk TV company to write positive comments in the news and texts about the Landik junior trial."

Koshkina and the others could now be facing up to seven years in prison for alleged 'violation of private corresondence'. Full story in English here

After being questioned by law-enforcement officials, Koshkina herself 'phoned Landyk sr. and wrote about their conversation, or rather his abusive, explative-ridden tirade, in this lb.ua piece. The bright, charismatic and charming journalist has certainly 'trodden on more than a few toes' in her many articles, but has nevertheless always appeared to have had cordial relations with the 'great and good' of the land.

Koshkina considers she and other at her site are now under grave threat, and that this assault is not merely a token 'shot across their bows' - it may well be the start of a campaign to 'clip the wings' of independent journalists before next autumn's parliamentary elections. Or maybe someone has  just decided to seek revenge and 'get even'...

Another example of creeping authoritarianism?
And should not Landyk sr. be investigated for possible abuse of power and perverting the course of justice? Not in the Alice in Wonderland world of Ukrainian politics.

                                                                Sonya Koshkina

Update:

Sonya Koshkina appeared via Skype on last night's 'ShusterLive' programme. She is out of the country and will not return until she and her lb.ua colleagues receive cast iron guarantees that they any possible criminal charges against them in the Landyk affair will be dropped. 

She accuses highly-placed officials in the presidential administration of organising a sustained 'nightmarish' attack against lb.ua in the last months , but without the consent of either the president Yanukovych or prosecutor-general Pshonka. [Your blogger considers the last assertion may be a ploy to enable this pair of oafs to emerge from the scandal unscathed without loss of face or embarrassment.]

The president's representative in parliament Yuriy Myroshnichenko said on the programme that Koshkina's appearance itself showed freedom of expression in the country was not under attack. However, he added prosecutors had the right to conduct any investigations in this case.

Everyone knows that internet websites now are the biggest and best source of unbiassed information on the political scene in Ukraine...LEvko suggests such attacks will become more commonplace in future..and this is the reason lb.ua are fighting back so vigorously...

p.s. Several years ago a British minister was photographed walking into Downing Street with her  briefing papers visible. Their embarrasing contents, discussing the double impact of falling house prices and rapidly rising food and fuel prices, a lethal political cocktail which were damaging to the then prime minister, were widely reported. No-one dreamt of attacking journalists for doing their job.
The minister in question held no grudge against them despite the sensitivity of the information placed into the public domain.

See also here, here, and here for similar cases.

Moderate success in Euros will not improve Ukraine's image

Below are loosely translated portions of an article in the Polish 'Gazeta Wyborcza' entitled "A lost match, a lost Ukraine?" by the excellent Marcin Wojciechowski.

"Ukrainian success in the Euros could have persuaded the authorities to make a generous gesture in the Tymoshenko affair [having sentenced her to seven years in prison for signing the gas agreement with Russia], and also in the cases other members of her government who are now in jail... Success and nationwide festivities would have provided cover to the authorities, enabling them to justify a change in their current policy - destruction of the opposition, or breaking its back by means of selectively applied criminal charges.

Now, after Ukraine's exit from the tournament, the country is more likely to return back to the starting point. Ukraine is deeply divided, and is considered in Europe to be an half-authoritarian state, boycotted by some, and as a state losing its chance to enter Western structures, not capable of taking advantage of them.

Perhaps this image will be somewhat improved after the successful organization of the tournament in Ukraine and the good impression left on visiting fans. But we should not delude ourselves: during the championship about  200-300 thousand people from the West visited Ukraine - less than half the number that visited Poland - and its image in the world will be shaped by the media and the speeches of politicians. And these are what they are.

If you listen to the Ukrainian government you might conclude that everything is perfect: there is no corruption, no authoritarian practices exist, no crisis; and all shortcomings are the fault of a demoralized opposition.

If, in turn, you take the point of view of the opposition, Ukraine is now ruled by Stalin with Beria, only dumber and more corrupt. Neither one nor the other viewpoint is correct.

Ukraine is faced with the task of constructing a minimal compromise that will solve the current deadlock. While the current murderous battle between the authorities and the opposition continues it is obvious Ukraine will remain rooted on one spot. The successful hosting of the Euros will not help. With the current elevated emotional level of political conflict on the banks of the Dnipro, the successful organization of Euro 2012 is of small comfort. Unfortunately."

The 'Economist' agrees.

Wojciechowski is correct. Had Ukrainian authorities picked up the German doctor's hint and put Tymoshenko under house arrest while she undergoes treatment so that she is fit to face trial in the UESU affair, everyone would have gone away on their holidays in a more relaxed frame of mind.

p.s. Putting Tymoshenko into a glass 'aquarium' in the Kharkiv courtroom together with potted plants, fancy rug on the floor, paintings on the wall etc. is stupid -  cheap deception - 'ochkovtiratelstvo'

As for the 1996 Shcheban murder, one possible likely scenario?

Will Yanukovych be handing out the medals?

The semi-finalists of the Euro 2012 competition are now known. 
Germany and Spain are favourites to progess to next Sunday's final in Kyiv. 
Read what the German team captain Philipp Lahm thinks about Yanukovych and his treatment of Tymoshenko in this recent 'Spiegel' interview [ in English ]
If Yanukovych decides to present the trophy and hand out medals will Lahm and his team mates shake hand?
You can be sure the German press will be writing about this...

The fear of Tymoshenko

Hanna Herman, one of Yanukovych's closest advisers, was interviewed by 'Glavkom' recently.

She was asked: "How do you assess the prospects of a united opposition? Is this alliance viable? Is it merely a joint venture for anyone who wants to enter parliament, and then everyone will go their own way?


A: Nobody will be able to unite with Yulia Volodymirivna when it comes to equal partnership. She has an authoritarian style and in principle does not accept partners, only [perhaps] as subordinates. And Yatseniuk will be a partner of Tymoshenko's only as long she does not have the power to crush him. That's all."

Herman should have explained Tymoshenko has been imprisoned for seven years - no one can unite with her - she is no longer a player on the field of battle. And according to recent statements by the deputy prosecutor-general she is probably facing two more major criminal charges, including involvement in several killings - in a country where percentage acquittal rates in criminal trials are in the low single digits.

But responses such as Herman's reveal in their hearts the ruling authorities lack conviction and still have a morbid fear of Tymoshenko's influence. They know she is still setting the political agenda in Ukraine...this is why, by one means or another, Yanukovych will not allow the opposition to gain power in the October parliamentary elections...it would mean he himself would be crushed...

Yanukovych no longer credible

Today's 'Segodnya' claims:

"Yanukovych has decided to pardon Tymoshenko - the former prime minister will be released from prison after all court proceedings."

They base their assertion on this portion of Yanukovych's recent interview in 'Time' magazine:

Q...the Tymoshenko case is also a problem for Ukraine. European leaders have demanded her release, and they have moved to freeze ties with Ukraine until she goes free. That is a serious problem. Why are you unable to resolve it?

A. People have come asking me for various resolutions. The simplest resolution is just to let Tymoshenko go. My reaction to that is this: I can’t act outside the framework of the law … The President does not have such instruments. I have to do everything by the letter of the law. So when could these questions [of her release] arise? They can arise when the legal process is finished. When it is finished, when the courts have made their decisions, including the European Court of Human Rights, then it is in the President’s authority to grant a pardon. And if this time comes, there is a procedure for this. But until the courts have made their decision, in a transparent, legal and procedurally sound way, I do not have the power to do this.

Q. But do you want to?

A. Of course. Of course I do....

A couple of days ago he claimed she participated in murder.. [see previous blog]

The man is no longer credible..

Yanukovych links Tymoshenko to Scherban's murder [updated]

Maybe it's the heady euphoria that has swept the country and its leadership after Ukraine's narrow victory in their first match over their group's weakest team, Sweden, in the Euro 2012 football tournament but, according to 'Bloomberg' president Yanukovych claims: "Crimes carried in various criminal cases were carried out with Tymoshenko’s participation...this isn’t a secret for the whole world - this happened. Including Shcherban’s murder. There were motives."

He is entering dangerous territory. The world also knows that he trampolined from motor transport manager to the highest echelons of power in Ukraine shortly after Yevhen Scherban's slaying. However, little documentation exists how this happened or who his sponsors were - it is a taboo subject.

Dozens of businessmen were murdered in and around Donetsk in the early '90's. Few of the murders were ever solved. Some of the alleged perpetrators themselves died in suspicious circumstances either in jail or elsewhere.

Scherban, by various accounts, had been the wealthiest man in Donbass and was a well-liked, charismatic politician. Those who inherited/appropriated his wealth are now the richest in the land.

And those who failed to solve the dozens of murders, intentionally or otherwise, now run the prosecutor general's office.

The murder rate diminished once the Yanukovych-Akhmetov-Kolesnikov triumvirate took full control of the region.

Update: Realising that the above statement was highly prejudicial, 'el presidente' has now explained that all the above is of course, a matter for the courts...]

I wonder if Rinat has called recently?

p.s. The motley crew who now run Ukraine gathered together to watch their nation play Sweden two days ago. Photos here

In their midst were three former presidents, the prosecutor-general [ho hum..], the young Yanukovych brothers, and top oligarchs...they all know one another's dirty secrets. Opposition leaders, who should also be represented at such national events, languish in jail.

Ready for Euros? [part 2]

Many if not most top European policians, including those of the United Kingdom, have decided to give the Ukrainian portion of the Euro 2012 soccer tournament a miss.

Ukrainian ambassador in London Khandohiy says: 'in reality no such decision has been taken by the British government' [An ambassador is an honest man sent abroad to lie for his country.. In this case this may only be partly true.]

As I mentioned in my previous blog, many facilities being prepared for fans from other countries are nowhere near complete. Photos of the current state of the Kyiv campsite being constructed for Swedish fans, who arrive tomorrow here

And the current state of the Khreshchatyk fan zone, complete with needlessly chopped down chestnut trees here

Expect a big stink about all of this. Negative reports are already appearing on BBC news channels and elsewhere.

I feel really sorry for the millions of Ukrainians in all parts of the country who have been looking forward for years to present their country in the best possible light and dearly want the tournament to be a success.

p.s. Top story in Friday's 'Sun' - UK's biggest selling daily:

Bigwigs boycott Euros

MPs protest over human rights 
(er, unless England reach 
the quarters)

Ready for Euros?

With just a few days to go before the start of Euro 2012, Kyiv and the area around the Olympic stadium where several matches, including the final on July 1st are to be played, is nowhere near ready. Check out this TVi video: http://tvi.ua/ua/watch/author/?prog=44&video=6631

The nearest hospital to the stadium, where any possible emergency casualties will be dealt with, is still a mess.

And at an intersection of two roads, near the Olympic stadium a giant hole has appeared out of which is emanating a torrent of steam and boiling water...

How much has been spent?

Источник

"Ukraine: Teetering on the Edge"

Watch this video of Thursday's Wroclaw Global Forum 2012 session [with English language voice-over] entitled: "Ukraine: teetering on the edge", here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cjkxkRqMGA&feature=relmfu

Klitschko, Kwasniewski, and Herman are on the panel, which was moderated by former Polish PM Jan Krzysztof Bielecki.

The message from Ukraine's most loyal advocates could not be clearer: no progress on Ukraine's EU integration until opposition leaders are released from prison.

p.s. First Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine, Valeriy Khoroshkovskiy's presentation at the Forum, in English, here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lin11KTacx8&feature=relmfu

His brief response when questioned about the 'elephant in the room' - the imprisonment of former PM Tymoshenko [about 47 minutes into the clip] was not convincing...

Normally a highly polished and confident media performer on Ukrainian television, Khoroshkovsky appears nervous and uncertain throughout..His advisers should have prepared responses to the easily predictable questions beforehand...or maybe he's too much of a smart-ass to do  his homework.

In comparison, Klitschko was far more assured....maybe there is a politician in there....

As the title of the first panel suggests, the Poles seem to be saying: we can't say too much right now because of the Euros...but after they finish our patience with Ukraine will run out...

p.p.s. Lots of interesting videos of discussion panels, presentations from the event here:

http://www.youtube.com/user/WroclawGlobalForum

Pandora's box

Distinguished Russian Journalist, Maxim Yusin, yesterday, wrote this in 'Vzglyad':

"Yanukovych will fight"

"Ukrainian opposition, united around the Yulia Tymoshenko's "Batkivshchyna" party recently publicly presented its programme in Kyiv. The oppositions' aim - to win parliamentary elections on October 28 and to "start the process of removal of Viktor Yanukovych from power".

Will it be possible to implement this plan? The odds are not that good right now.

First, the opposition themselves admit in order to implement their goals they need to not just to win, but to inflict a crushing defeat, securing at least 300 out of 450 seats. Only then will they be able to start an impeachment process.

Currently polls show the opposition to have only a small lead over Party of Regions - one to four percent.

Secondly, parliamentary elections will be held under the new rules - half the seats in parliament will be taken up by single-mandate candidates who the ruling party will find much easier to manipulate than those who enter parliament on party lists. 'Buying out' of parliamentarians and jumping from one faction to another has long been a tradition in Ukrainian politics. Tariffs in each new Parliament have continually increased, but this time it seems they are lower so the oligarchs that stand behind Viktor Yanukovych will be able to save money.

According to some forecasts  about 150 of the 225 single-mandate MPs will eventually join the 'Regionaly'. This means the opposition will not even gain a simple majority, never mind a constitutional majority.

Third, the Yanukovych government will fight much more desperately than in 2004, when they surrendered to the Kyiv Maidan. The president simply cannot afford to lose power. At stake is his own freedom, prosperity and family well-being, as well as the prosperity of the Donetsk clan.

Today, in Ukraine, violent political habits exist, and a Pandora's box has been opened by the head of state. Yanukovych who can hardly be counted on to be lenient - otherwise he is likely to go the same way as Yulia Tymoshenko. A precedent has been created.

Therefore he must hold on to the bitter end - no Maidan and no mandate without a fight.

Right now though, for Yanukovych, while there is cause for concern, he and his Donetsk clan maintain general control."

Today in Poland, first deputy prime minister Valeriy Khoroskovsky claimed Ukrainians are convinced ex-premier Tymoshenko is a criminal. PM Azarov made similar statements recently too. Unquestionably a significant portion of the population would agree with them, but then again a similar number, or perhaps even more, consider Yanukovych, the cabinet of ministers, and Khoroshkovsky himself to be a bunch of corrupt crooks who should be behind bars too.

Tymoshenko's trial last year on charges of abuse of office should have been impeccably conducted in order to convince sceptics and outsiders alike of her guilt. But the trial was a sloppily conducted farce - hence the reaction by western capitals who concluded the trial was entirely politically motivated. After this any trials on any further charges will not convince either.

Yanukovych today 'played a new card' and revealed that "he had appointed an American law firm to do a legal audit of the prosecution and trial of his great political rival Yulia Tymoshenko." He is wasting even more tax-payers money on a futile whitewashing exercise..How can their findings be other than to satisfy their clients' requirements?

As Yusin says, Pandora's box has been opened..and when Ukrainians snap out of their lethargy its dreadful contents will emerge..

p.s. I really liked this from NYT on EURO 2012

Lots of good comments too: e.g. "Much of the attention [racism]is receiving is surely motivated by the larger perception that awarding the 2012 games to Ukraine has turned out on all levels to be a fundamental geopolitical mistake."

Today the the French minister for sport announced than no member of the French cabinet will be going to the Euros. Ukrainian authorities have already been notified. I expect similar declarations from other European capitals in the near future.

The downtrodden Ukrainian tax payer will have to foot the bill for the Euro 2012 while Yanukovych, Kolesnikov and co. hive off their kick-backs in exotic tax havens..