Lutsenko will not be forgotten

Last week I posted a blog on the second anniversary of the arrest and detention of Ukrainian former Minister of Internal Affairs Yuriy Lutsenko's arrest.

In many countries, he would have been eligible for early release or parole, but the vindictive Ukrainian regime will keep him 'banged up' in prison for just as long as they can in the hope the case will be forgotten about.

They are wrong. His case is being closely studied at the European Court of Human Rights, and many other European Foreign Ministries are also closely following his plight.

Below is a response from the United Kingdom Foreign and Commonwealth Office with whom I've been in communication:

"We continue to be concerned about this case and about human rights in Ukraine.  During 2012, the Minister for Europe, David Lidington, made two public statements relating to Mr Lutsenko’s case: the first was in February following Mr Lutsenko’s conviction; the second was in July following the European Court of Human Rights’ judgement.  I have attached the Minister’s statements for your information.  [links here and here]

Embassy officials follow developments closely including by attending briefings by Mr Lutsenko’s wife and his lawyer.  We regularly raise our concerns with senior Ukrainian officials and continue to work closely with EU partners in highlighting these issues and in stressing to Ukraine the need to uphold the rule of law and respect fundamental human rights. 

Yours sincerely...

  

Assistant Desk Officer for Ukraine | Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine Team | Foreign and Commonwealth Office | Room W2.72 | King Charles Street | London SW1A 2AH 

Lutsenko will play a major role in Ukrainian politics in months and years to come...

Cheap PR scams discredit Ukraine

In my previous blog I mentioned how the authoritatively-named but entirely bogus Cologne-based outfit  'Zentrum für Interkulturelle Kooperation und Kommunikation e.V'   had recently declared: 'Sergiy Arbuzov Receives the Highest Marks of Any of the Heads of Governments or Central Banks in Eastern Europe' - news which was naturally widely broadcast across Ukraine.

Arbuzov was until recently chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine, is now deputy Prime Minister. This trusted member of the Yanukovych 'Family' is widely tipped to head the cabinet of ministers in a few months time.

A recent investigation by 'Deutsche Welle'  has now also confirmed this 'ZIKK' project to be and entirely fraudulent PR stunt.

Incidentally, 'Deutsche Welle' also describe another thinly disguised scam. The phantom Berlin newspaper "Berliner Tageszeitung" which is frequently quoted in the Ukrainian media, particularly in numerous anti-Tymoshenko articles, does not actually exist at all.  Despite extensive efforts, 'DW' have not been able to contact anyone connected with the publication - it has no telephones or faxes, or even active email addresses.

Such stunts further disgrace the Ukrainian authorities... they are just of bunch of 'zhuliki i vory'...swindlers and thieves...

Arbuzov - what a 'banker'*...

The latest edition of 'Korrespondent' contains a well-researched and detailed article on Ukraine's latest  rising star - recently-appointed first vice Prime Minister and a favourite if the Yanukovych clan - Serhiy Arbuzov. Most commentators agree that aging current PM Mykola Azarov is on the way out..and the so-far obscure 36 year-old Arbuzov will soon head the cabinet for benefit of Yanuk himself.

In the last few months of 2012 Arbuzov's podgy face wast thrust upon the Ukrainian man on the street on billboards and light-boxes across Kyiv in a two-month campaign that was estimated to cost up to $500,000.

The Ukrainian State Bank set up a television company, 'Bank-TV',  at a cost of around $1,000,000, to broadcast never-ending panegyrics in praise of Arbuzov and the State Bank which he headed.

A few weeks ago the obscure 'German Center for Intercultural Cooperation and Communication' astonishingly reported:  'Sergiy Arbuzov Receives the Highest Marks of Any of the Heads of Governments or Central Banks in Eastern Europe'

However, 'Forbes.ua' smelled a rat.  Their investigation revealed the Cologne-base German Centre was merely a highly dubious hollow shell outfit run by a Ukrainian CEO. Nevertheless their glowing reports were widely broadcast in the Ukrainian mass media to build up the young Arbuzov's image....

'Forbes' claim all of these PR schemes were dreamt up at Arbuzov's own initiative...
He loves the aura of power. When he is in Donetsk visiting his old pal - Yanukovych's elder son Oleksandr, his escort includes three vehicles filled with bodyguards...more than even Ukraine's richest oligarch, Rinat Akhmetov employs.

This is a serious creep...a real 'merchant banker...*'

p.s. 'Korrespondent's piece omits some of the more sinister aspects of Arbuzov's rapid ascent...

p.p.s. In rhyming cockney slang 'merchant banker' means 'wanker...'

No leniency toward Lutsenko

Former Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs, Yuriy Lutsenko was arrested and immediately detained almost exactly two years ago, on 26th December 2010.

On 27th February 2012 Lutsenko was sentenced to 4 years imprisonment at the behest of his political opponents who are now in power, on what were widely considered spurious and vengeful politically motivated charges. Criticism of the Ukrainian authorities's unjust treatment of Lutsenko emanated from E.U., the U.S. Department of State, and from many well-known international organisations.

On 3 July 2012, the European Court of Human Rights declared the arrest of Lutsenko had violated his human rights and ordered the Ukrainian government to pay 15,000 Euros compensation to Lutsenko for moral damages.

The ECHR are currently are currently assessing the entire case against Lutsenko and may well order his release sometime in 2013.

Since imprisonment, Lutsenko's health has declined and he has been hospitalised on several occasions.

In most civilised countries [e.g. United Kingdom], having served half his sentence for non violent crimes, Lutsenko would have been eligible either for early release, release on parole, or at minimum, transfer to an open prison with a less harsh regime.

But there is little chance of this occurring in Ukraine because Lutsenko's political enemies are sadists. The absence of such a humane gesture [which would undoubtedly improve their image] reveals their absolute contempt of western critics who accuse the Ukrainian authorities of unfairly persecuting  opposition leaders.

p.s. Has any reader of this blog ever heard any word of support uttered by former president Yushchenko in support of Lutsenko?

Six months for looks alone...

Introducing... Ukraine's new Minister for Regional Development, Construction and Housing -

Hennadiy Temnyk

I swear I have seen this guy on a Police Station notice board 'Most Wanted list'...

Ukraine's poor image will not be repaired by slick talk

Director of the London Ukrainian Institute, Andriy Hunder, in a VOA interview, reveals what everyone knows already - Ukraine has a very poor image in the English language global mass media. He provides 'advice' on what to do to improve this state of affairs.

Ukraine has a deservedly bad image because it is one of the most corrupt countries in Europe and since independence has been lead by greedy, narrow-minded and evil men with no vision. This has little to do with the country's culture, literature, or traditions.

Smart-talking PR hot-shots in foreign capitals who make their money polishing turds may make a few bucks persuading their clients to part with their money in an attempt to burnish the country's image, but this will not change anything.

Ukraine's grubby image will not improve without massive improvements in its governance.

A start could be made when political prisoners are released, prosecutors back off political opposition members and back off the already frail independent media, the president stops spending obscene amounts of money on his eleven palatial residences, oligarchic supporters of the ruling party stop carving up the nation's wealth in fixed privatisation 'sell-offs' etc. etc.

p.s. The London Ukrainian Institute offered a hearty welcome a few weeks ago to ex president Viktor Yushchenko, the man who, as a prosecution witness,  gave highly dubious testimony at  Yulia Tymoshenko's 2010 trial. Yet without Tymoshenko's unqualified support a few years previously during the Orange Revolution it is most unlikely Yushchenko would ever have made president.

One of the reasons Ukraine has such dreadful press is the blatant, widely recognised, politically motivated persecution of political opposition leaders like Tymoshenko by the current administration....aided and abetted, of course, by Yushchenko himself..

The Ukrainian Institute should make its position clear on this instead of 'brown-nosing' the discredited former president..

A reminder of the evil men who run Ukraine..

Over six years ago [how time flies] I posted a blog about the dreadful kidnap and murder of Roman Yerokhin who was a senior officer from the main directorate of the Adminstration for Fighting Organized Crime [UBOZ].

He had been investigating a large conversion and money laundering operation linked to a Donetsk financial establishment and its alleged links to parliamentary deputies from various political factions.

Robert Stack, in his recent brilliantly researched blog, ties Yerokhin's murder to former associates of one of Ukraine's most rapidly rising political stars, the current 36 year-old head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Sergei Arbuzov.

Arbuzov, who is tipped to become Ukraine's next PM, is universally considered to have close ties with the Yanukovych family clan.

Stack's article is a chilling reminder of the nature of the guys who run Ukraine today . They have more in common with '30's Chicago than the EU. Anyone reading Stack's article will realise how far the country's leaders are from holding normal European values, and from sincerely wishing to adhere to any possible Association Agreement rules.

Why should the IMF or any other international financial institution have any dealings with such people?
Luckily, their gigantic scams are being exposed ever-more frequently.

Another slap in Yanukovych's face

Less than 24 hours after announcing he will be meeting president Putin today, president Yanukovych's official site declares the meeting has been postponed...

Humiliating, or what?

Yanuk will do the deal with Putin tomorrow...

Tonight big-selling 'Segodnya' reports: " It is expected the question of the new price of Russian gas for Ukraine will be decided at Putin's residence in Novo-Ogaryovo tomorrow night [Tuesday], while at the same time the presidents of Ukraine and Russia will sign documents on the start of Ukraine's accession into the Customs Union..."

This despite frantic last minute 'carrot waving'  from European Commission head Manuel Barosso.. Your are wasting your time, senor..

[p.s 'Segodnya' entitle their link: "Yanukovych will create [sdelayet] a sensation in Moscow..."]

Ukraine is in the Customs Union already

I really liked Vitaliy Portnikov's excellent video blog today on 'RadioSvoboda', which was entitled 'Ukraine is in the Customs Union already ' [together with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan]

Here are the main points he makes:

The Custom Union is not a union of economic integration. What its members have in common is a similar economic model with the following characteristics:

No possibility of starting up a major business without the absolute approval of the president or his closest associates. Same goes for Ukraine.

Main source of income for the member countries of the C.U. is sale of raw materials. Same for Ukraine - steel, and chemicals..

Small and medium business enterprises are badly treated by the ruling authorities and not encouraged to grow and develop. All economic growth is controlled and sponsored by the government, or by oligarchic sponsors. Same for Ukraine.

Virtually all of the mass media is controlled and run by the government, or by its oligarchic sponsors. Same for Ukraine.

In other words, Ukraine is already a member of the CU - mentally, politically, economically and socially. Whether Ukraine signs an Association or other agreement with the EU will make little difference under the current administration because they have no intention of changing the rules of the game. Their sole intention in signing any possible Association Agreement is merely to maintain the current status quo.

Only when Ukraine changes internally and leaves behind its current C.U. attitudes will it be ready to sign any Association Agreement with the Europeans.

This is the harsh truth..and the Europeans should take account of it irrespective of geo-political considerations.

Forget about Europe, we're heading east...

'Forbes.ua' in one headline today, announces

'Yanukovych has led Ukraine to the Customs Union'

In today's video address to the Verkhovna Rada, Yanukovych declared :

Ukraine will gradually join the Customs Union rules, because there are a huge market for Ukrainian goods there. We will do everything in order Ukraine has a harmonious relationship with the countries of the Customs Union,  not only in economic but also in the humanitarian, scientific and social fields.

[.."postupovo pryyednuvatymetsya do pravyl Mytnoho soyuzu"....]

They have sown the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind

Almost exactly two years ago many opposition deputies in parliament were seriously assaulted in the parliament plenum chamber by PoR thugs as they were staging a peaceful after-hours sit-in. No criminal action was forthcoming following these events.
[Video here]

Members of the current ruling majority should have no reason to complain therefore if blood flows again, as it did at today's first session of the new parliament. Opposition deputies will be pleased with their performance today, they have left their mark. Comments on social media sites have been supportive - opposition electors voted for 'Svoboda'. in particular too 'rattle the cage'.

The PoR deputies who mocked and humiliated the opposition in previous months, claiming: 'We toyed with them like kittens', now realise what awaits..

Video from today's session here

Judging by the performance by deputies on this 'first day back at school' I predict the new parliament will soon become unworkable.

p.s. Looking at photos from today's parliament confirms how right Jay Leno was when he said: "Politics is just show business for ugly people.."

Why Azarov resigned today

"KyivPost" reports  Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov and his government have resigned immediately after approving the next year's budget, and President Viktor Yanukovych has, apparently accepted the resignation,

"Azarov and many members of his Cabinet were elected to parliament during the Oct. 28 vote, and had to file their letters of resignation to the president. They will still act as an interim government until the new one is approved. A vote in parliament is required to approve the prime minister, but ministerial appointments do not need such a vote..."

However, in Ukraine nothing is ever quite what is seems to be.

'Glavkom' provides a possible explanation for this manoeuvre, which is intended to provide Azarov with parliamentary immunity from prosecution for the duration of the soon-to-be-sworn-in parliament, and enable him to remain as acting Prime Minister, for quite a few months to come.

Immunity from criminal persecution is important - had Azarov's predecessor, Yulia Tymoshenko, been in parliament she would have been 'fireproof', but just days after her government was dismissed, criminal proceedings commenced against her. As a parliamentary deputy, Azarov can sleep easy at night for several years to come.

Constitutionally, Azarov can only hold both a parliamentary mandate and be acting PM for a period of two months, but there have been many many cases in the last few years where, by means of blatant underhand trickery, such anomalies have been allowed to remain in place.

Had he not resigned as head of the Cabinet of Ministers, he could not have been sworn in as a parliamentary deputy. This is a reason for today's action.

Update: A top PoR spokesman, the president's official spokesman in parliament, in preparation for this scheme has declared that although Azarov cannot combine two jobs according to 'the rules', this would be  permissible according to higher 'principles'.

Other serious commentators confirm the likelihood of many of the recent cabinet of ministers, including  Azarov, staying in place for quite a while in order that balance of force amongst Yanukovych's team of loyalists remains 'as is', perhaps until the 2015 presidential election campaign.

Dynamo Kyiv fans protest against alleged injustice against one of their own

Today, Sunday, a mass protest by many thousands of Kyiv Dynamo football club supporters took place in the centre of the capital. Video here

They were protesting against the harsh sentences passed on two supporters' leaders, Dmytro Pavlychenko, and his 19-year old son Serhiy, who were found guilty of murdering a judge in March 2011.

The victim, Judge Serhiy Zubkov, had previously ordered an extension to their apartment to be demolised.

Evidence presented by the prosecutors at the trial was highly suspect and circumstantial. Another court had ruled against the Kyiv prosecutor's office for flagrant procedural violations during the investigation of the murder.

Zubkov was shot twice and stabbed in what looked like a professional 'hit'. He had previously been involved in high-profile Kyiv property construction disputes, so it is possible the Palvychenko's are merely the 'fall guys'.

More photos from 'Segodnya' here 

Sunday's demonstration seemed to pass by peacefully, but the anger and determination of the marchers was unmistakeable. It is fair to conclude, that if people feel strongly about and injustice, they will go out on the street to protest - a worry for the authorities...

Quiet revolution, stage one

I liked this follow-up analysis on last month's parliamentary elections:

"....this election was heavily ruled by the protest sentiments, although they had remained unnoticed by sociologists up until election day. Therefore we believe we have witnessed a quiet revolution. A sort of a latent Maydan * [Maydan (Ukrainian for square) is deemed a symbol of the Orange revolution]. It might not have fully evolved into a revolution yet but it is its first stage because, as we see it, the first stage of the Orange revolution happened when the opposition won the 2002 election. Even though back then President Kuchma's administration managed to snatch the initiative and form the parliamentary majority, two years later the same parliament backed up the Orange revolution....Unless the authorities understand the scale of the protest sentiments, they will be hit by the second wave of the tsunami.."

And with a possible/probable? economic crisis looming....will there be only one way to go?

Break for a week or two..

Your blogger is currently experiencing a few problems, which should be resolved in a week's time or two. Hopefully I will be able continue posting then..LEvko

I

Kozhara has no credibility

Several brave members of Ukraine's Central Electoral Commission, including its deputy head, Zhanna Usenko-Chorna have been highly critical of the manner in which last month's parliamentary elections were conducted - their comments resonate with the damning assessments produced the OSCE/ODIHR and other international observers.

The head of the CEC, Volodymyr Shapoval, has been critical of judges who had interfered in the electoral process, and has called for them to be punished.

Shapoval agreed with some of his CEC colleagues who wanted results in several constituencies to be annulled, but he, and they were outvoted.

Now Foreign Policy Advisor to the Ukrainian President, Leonid Kozhara, who has been set to visit western capitals to whitewash the election process and results, has publicly criticised these people on PoR's official website: "The CEC is not a political body and its members should stay out of politics. Any inconsiderate frivolous political statements undermine the Ukraine's image in the world, and those who resort to dirty political insinuations have to understand this."

Your blogger considers the CEC's job is to conduct free and fair elections. They have every right to make comments on whether they succeeded or not in their task, and provide details of specific failings.

p.s. Kozhara's trip has been terrible. Last Friday he was torn to pieces by a well-briefed BBC interviewer on the 'Hardtalk' programme. His arguments looked as phony as his dodgy hairpiece....He may even get promoted soon..

Opposition candidates in disputed constituencies will continue to fight despite Azarov's offer

PM Azarov, in an official statement on the government site, has just said:

"The Government is seriously concerned about the situation which arose regarding the counting of votes in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine in some single member districts.

As Prime Minister of Ukraine I've repeatedly spoken out about this.

Meanwhile, succession of events encourages us to officially call upon political parties and candidates, who're caught up in conflicts of counting votes, to stop these conflicts and to start a dialogue with each other."

I watched several opposition candidates from the 13 disputed single mandate constituencies as they were interviewed on Thursday's Mykola Knyazhytsky show on TVi. What struck me was their quiet dignity, intelligence and determination.

The stories they told were all very similar. The 'protocols' resulting from parallel vote counting at the lowest level were generally satisfactory [primarily because when these votes were 'totted up' at polling stations there was little chance of knowing for sure how the vote was going overall in the constituencies.] These protocols are in the public domain.

But once the protocols together with voting slips were delivered to constituency electoral commissions and it quickly became clear from the numbers on the protocols that bad news awaited the pro-authority candidates, the 'funny business' started. This took the form of power cuts and black-outs inside the building, unnecessary 'time-outs' and delaying tactics by the counters, seizure of votes in back-rooms by unknown persons of 'sporting appearance', tampering of bags containing the votes, and so on.

Most of these opposition candidates on the tv show were academics, doctors, bosses of small to medium businesses etc. They were standing against very prominent multi-millionaire businessmen who, in many cases, employ hundreds of persons [including security staff ]in the areas where they were standing for election...

These high-power businessmen say in self-justification of their criminal behaviour: 'Look, I have grown my business here and brought hundreds of jobs...what have these opposition candidates brought, what can they do for you?' As if this gives them the right to cheat...

Encouragingly the opposition candidates who considered they were cheated, declared they will continue their fight for justice using the enormous amount of evidence they have accumulated for as long as necessary. They complained however, that the dozens of law suits already put before judges challenging results, have all been, so far, treated with contempt and ignored.

p.s Yevheniya Tymoshenko on British Channel 4 TV interview here

The opposition's dilemma

Because the Central Electoral Commission have so far not been able to complete their count in some single mandate constituencies the authorities [under the instruction of the president] have grudgingly approved legally highly dubious reruns of the elections in five of the more than one dozen most hotly disputed simple majority constituencies. These  re-elections could take place, by next March at the earliest, maybe. It seems the three opposition forces that will enter parliament have, kind of, agreed to this.

In your blogger's opinion both the authorities and the opposition are not behaving entirely correctly and are 'jumping the gun'.

According to Ukrainian law, the Central Electoral Commission have until next Monday to produce final election results..The CEC have not finished their task until this deadline is reached - they should not yet be allowed to 'wash their hands' of their responsibilities. The evidence of malfeasance which they must obviously possess has to be passed to law enforcement bodies to deal with.

If the CEC's stance remains unchanged until after next Monday, the opposition should make it absolutely clear - there is solid evidence of fraud in the 13 disputed constituencies and they will not accept the swearing in of any deputies for these constituencies. The opposition should insist any possible rerun election must first be preceded by criminal proceedings against wrongdoers in these constituences whose deeds made it necessary for additional elections to be held.

Mykola Knyazhytsky in his blog describes the opposition's dilemma. It should not tamely accept the authorities' ideas of compromise - but because the legal system in the country is in the firm grip of the president, fair judgements are unlikely too.

He goes on: "For the opposition the position is very uncomfortable. Despite the high vote of confidence which the opposition parties received, they are not strong enough to resist an organised and cynical government machine. It would be better to gather strength and present a united front in the next presidential election [in 2015].

But the government has placed the opposition in a position where it will be impossible for them to acquiesce to cynical fraud in some consitituences. That is why the government must revoke their decision and recognize the unfalsified election results according to the original protocols [which are already in the public domain], or the atmosphere will gradually becomes revolutionary, despite all of the  talk that Ukrainians are most unwilling to take such radical steps. If the opposition agrees to this current brazen lawlessness, it will have to take some of the responsibility for it because it will be with their tacit consent that Ukraine turns into authoritarian regime of the type seen in Belarus and Russia."

p.s. From a cynical point of view many of the so called independents who have won in the single mandate consitituencies [and also the communist deputies] would be delighted to see a finely balanced parliament. It would make their vote far more valuable in monetary terms....

The Communists did surprisingly well too and will be no pushovers....why should the 'independent' new members of parliament declare with whom they will vote if the Communists have not yet made their own position clear....PoR will have to dig deep into their depleted money bags..

p.p.s. A good explanation for the rise of 'Svoboda' here 

Opposition leaders sell out...

There are 13 electoral constituencies were journalists and local opposition forces claim systematic cheating took place during last week's elections:- constituency numbers 11, 14, 20, 90, 94, 132, 183, 194, 197, 211, 214,216, 223. Many serious allegations and much evidence of fraud have been accumulated in these constituencies. Any perpetrators found guilty of election fraud should go to prison for many years.

Yet now Yatseniuk, Klychko and Tyhnybok have timidly agreed to a recount in just five of these - numbers 94, 132, 194, 197, 223, and forgotten entirely about the remainder.

They have sold out...they have sold out their supporters who so bravely have tried to protect their constitutional right to free and fair elections across the country.

They have crumbled so publicly that the electorate will never trust them to carry out any of their manifesto proposals again were they were ever to get into power [not much likelyhood of that now]. Even though the parties of Yatseniuk, Klychko and Tyhnybok received about 48% of votes cast, compared to Regional's 30% by the party lists, even despite this moral victory, they have crumbled, thus providing more ammunition to those who declare the so-called opposition leaders have been 'bought out' a long time ago -  it certainly looks like it.

p.s. Excellent analysis on Ukraine's elections from Mykola Riabchuk here