A totally plausible explanation why the Kremlin-controlled 'Vostok Battalion' has been active in Eastern Ukraine is provided by the excellent Mark Galeotti in his blog.
Some thought-provoking comments too..
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty today also provide illuminating information in their article "Vostok Battalion, A Powerful New Player In Eastern Ukraine"
Galeotti concludes:
Moscow’s strategy of chaos has worked too well, eating away not just at the cohesion of the rump Ukrainian state but also the emergent East Ukrainians, too. There appears to be increasing evidence of disputes between militias, and between the relatively professional defectors from the Ukrainian security forces, the opportunist thugs, and the “war tourists” from Russia. [And local mafia gangs ..LEvko] Thus, Moscow’s hopes to be able to cut a deal with Kyiv–regardless of whether Poroshenko can and will offer the Kremlin what it wants–depends now on bringing order to chaos. The Russians wished for chaos; now they know why so many folk tales warn of being careful what one wishes for…
Saturday, May 31, 2014
Wednesday, May 21, 2014
Shakhtar Donetsk bus attacked
Shakhtar Donetsk team bus attacked [hijacked?] by team of Donetsk People's Republic gun men. Video here
This is a big deal...a massive challenge to the king of Donbas...to Shaktar's massive base of supporters...How many more of them will now turn out to vote in Sunday's presidential election as a result?
Dare I say, a massive own-goal by the separatists?
p.s. You tocha ma car...I smasha you face...[!?]
This is a big deal...a massive challenge to the king of Donbas...to Shaktar's massive base of supporters...How many more of them will now turn out to vote in Sunday's presidential election as a result?
Dare I say, a massive own-goal by the separatists?
p.s. You tocha ma car...I smasha you face...[!?]
Monday, May 19, 2014
Russian extremists now dictating agenda in Donbas
Russian journalist Oleg Kashin, on slon.ru site provides a creditable account of what has been going on these last few months in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.
He explains why, embarrassingly for Putin, two Russian citizens, Alexander Boroday, [now 'premier' of the Donetsk People's Republic] and Igor Girkin/Strelkov, ['Commander of the Donetsk People's Militia'], have come to occupy their exalted positions even though neither has ever had much to do with that part of Ukraine.
'Ukrainska Pravda' also quote Kashin to reveal Russian oligarch, Konstyantin Malofyeyev, co-operated with the Russian army in the Spring operation to annex Crimea, in joint 'semi-state/semi-private partnership' .
Malofyeyev, a staunch supporter of the Russian Orthodox Church and friend of Putin's crackpot political guru Alexander Dugin , had already been active in Crimea, sponsoring the mayor of Sevastopol, Aleksey Chaliy, to the tune of $1 million.
Boroday, a Russian political technologist and former employee of Malofyeyev's, was sent to work as an adviser to Serhiy Aksyonov [a.k.a Goblin, a Crimean gangster/politician - now Crimean PM] when the Crimea land grab got under way.
Aksyonov had previously lead the so-called Russian Unity Party on the peninsula.
Strelkov, an officer in the Russian military reserves who holds extremist, radical views on eliminating enemies of the Russian state, was invited to join the Crimea operation by Boroday. The pair had been long-time friends.
Following a quick and clean 'victory' and annexation in Crimea, instead of returning home, Boroday and Strelkov, were carried away by their success and thought they would have a crack at 'liberating' the Donbas region of Ukraine too.
However, as the Slon.ru article explains, matters were not quite that simple because other players had also walked onto the stage in the region. Pavel Gubarev came out of nowhere to declare himself leader of the Donbas People's Militia, and then unofficial 'governor of the Donetsk oblast' following the initial seizure of Donetsk state administration buildings. Perhaps a Kremlin 'stooge', he was arrested by pro-Kyiv forces then released in a prisoner exchange, but now does not hold any official position in the Donetsk People's Republic, [even though his wife is, ahem, 'minister of foreign affairs']. Because of his 'demotion' Gubarev has now moved closer to Strelkov; if Moscow will require a local lackey in future if the region were to seek closer ties, he would 'do nicely'. [His experience as a part-time Christmas time Dyed Moroz/Santa Claus may prove helpful in this regard].
Another player on the stage is Denis Pushilin, previously only known for his involvement in the notorious million dollar MMM Ponzi scheme fraud a decade ago. Slon.ru alleges Pushilin, [now Donetsk People's Republic chairman], is a puppet whose strings are being pulled by Rinat Akhmetov.
Pushilin had been set up to establish a fake semi-autonomous republic, but without the excessive use of force, to occupy buildings in Donetsk etc., and provide Akhmetov leverage in his dealings with the new powers in Kyiv following the flight of former president Yanukovych.
Pushilin's project was a flimsy parody of last winter's events in Kyiv, and has now been completely eclipsed by the deeds of serious, bloodthirsty crazies like Strelkov in Slovyansk and other smaller towns.
Slon.ru compares Strelkov in Donbas to Che Guevara in Bolivia. Streklov achieved success in Crimea, as Guevara [and Castro] had in Cuba. Both thought they could repeat similar revolutions elsewhere. Guevara, of course came to a sticky end.
There is now increasing tension between Donetsk and Slovyansk. Pushilin and the pseudo-separatists in Donetsk have become the hostages of Strelkov and his terrorist thugs too.
Oleg Kashin concludes: "Russia, of course, is responsible for the Ukrainian crisis from its inception, and in the case of Donbas just the propaganda support is sufficient to consider Russia the patron of the separatists. But propaganda support can be switched on.. and can be switched off, as has happened more than once. But how can you turn off field commander like Strelkov? Developments in Slovyansk strongly indicates that this portion of the Ukrainian Front is living by its own laws, and has long since gone beyond Ukrainian internal domestic intrigue involving Akhmetov and that "public-private partnership" that was seen in Crimea. And there is nothing in the world more interesting than political intrigue which has slipped out of control of its original authors."
He explains why, embarrassingly for Putin, two Russian citizens, Alexander Boroday, [now 'premier' of the Donetsk People's Republic] and Igor Girkin/Strelkov, ['Commander of the Donetsk People's Militia'], have come to occupy their exalted positions even though neither has ever had much to do with that part of Ukraine.
'Ukrainska Pravda' also quote Kashin to reveal Russian oligarch, Konstyantin Malofyeyev, co-operated with the Russian army in the Spring operation to annex Crimea, in joint 'semi-state/semi-private partnership' .
Malofyeyev, a staunch supporter of the Russian Orthodox Church and friend of Putin's crackpot political guru Alexander Dugin , had already been active in Crimea, sponsoring the mayor of Sevastopol, Aleksey Chaliy, to the tune of $1 million.
Boroday, a Russian political technologist and former employee of Malofyeyev's, was sent to work as an adviser to Serhiy Aksyonov [a.k.a Goblin, a Crimean gangster/politician - now Crimean PM] when the Crimea land grab got under way.
Aksyonov had previously lead the so-called Russian Unity Party on the peninsula.
Strelkov, an officer in the Russian military reserves who holds extremist, radical views on eliminating enemies of the Russian state, was invited to join the Crimea operation by Boroday. The pair had been long-time friends.
Following a quick and clean 'victory' and annexation in Crimea, instead of returning home, Boroday and Strelkov, were carried away by their success and thought they would have a crack at 'liberating' the Donbas region of Ukraine too.
However, as the Slon.ru article explains, matters were not quite that simple because other players had also walked onto the stage in the region. Pavel Gubarev came out of nowhere to declare himself leader of the Donbas People's Militia, and then unofficial 'governor of the Donetsk oblast' following the initial seizure of Donetsk state administration buildings. Perhaps a Kremlin 'stooge', he was arrested by pro-Kyiv forces then released in a prisoner exchange, but now does not hold any official position in the Donetsk People's Republic, [even though his wife is, ahem, 'minister of foreign affairs']. Because of his 'demotion' Gubarev has now moved closer to Strelkov; if Moscow will require a local lackey in future if the region were to seek closer ties, he would 'do nicely'. [His experience as a part-time Christmas time Dyed Moroz/Santa Claus may prove helpful in this regard].
Another player on the stage is Denis Pushilin, previously only known for his involvement in the notorious million dollar MMM Ponzi scheme fraud a decade ago. Slon.ru alleges Pushilin, [now Donetsk People's Republic chairman], is a puppet whose strings are being pulled by Rinat Akhmetov.
Pushilin had been set up to establish a fake semi-autonomous republic, but without the excessive use of force, to occupy buildings in Donetsk etc., and provide Akhmetov leverage in his dealings with the new powers in Kyiv following the flight of former president Yanukovych.
Pushilin's project was a flimsy parody of last winter's events in Kyiv, and has now been completely eclipsed by the deeds of serious, bloodthirsty crazies like Strelkov in Slovyansk and other smaller towns.
Slon.ru compares Strelkov in Donbas to Che Guevara in Bolivia. Streklov achieved success in Crimea, as Guevara [and Castro] had in Cuba. Both thought they could repeat similar revolutions elsewhere. Guevara, of course came to a sticky end.
There is now increasing tension between Donetsk and Slovyansk. Pushilin and the pseudo-separatists in Donetsk have become the hostages of Strelkov and his terrorist thugs too.
Oleg Kashin concludes: "Russia, of course, is responsible for the Ukrainian crisis from its inception, and in the case of Donbas just the propaganda support is sufficient to consider Russia the patron of the separatists. But propaganda support can be switched on.. and can be switched off, as has happened more than once. But how can you turn off field commander like Strelkov? Developments in Slovyansk strongly indicates that this portion of the Ukrainian Front is living by its own laws, and has long since gone beyond Ukrainian internal domestic intrigue involving Akhmetov and that "public-private partnership" that was seen in Crimea. And there is nothing in the world more interesting than political intrigue which has slipped out of control of its original authors."
Friday, May 16, 2014
Is tide just beginning to turn?
Serhiy Zdrylyuk, deputising for his boss, leader of the 'Donbas Self-Defence Force, Ihor Strelkov, staged a bizarre, rather shambolic press conference today, presenting an ultimatum to Ukrainian military forces - unless they withdraw their heavy equipment from the area 'everything will be destroyed and burned'.
Video here
Zdrylyuk continually fidgeted nervously with a pen in one hand, and held a lighted cigarette in the other, flicking the ash onto the floor under the table. He looked stressed out, rather frightened and unconvincing, as if he knew, deep inside, his 'self defence force' will not be capable of delivering on his threats. Furthermore, he would have been well aware that by making such threats, so publicly, he would be be a marked man forever.
The gravity of his statement seemed to hit him as he spoke.
Residents in Donbas and elsewhere crave peace and stability above all else. For many months mass media in the east of the country have frightened the wits out of these people with tales of fascist banderites coming to cut their hearts out. Many would have welcomed Russian forces to provide some stability. but now it seems, the chances of this happening are receding.
Gradually it will dawn on many of these same residents that the main threat to stability in their region comes from these undisciplined anarchistic separatists as the disruption to their lives caused by their activities increases..[E.g. a high security vehicle delivering wages and pensions to a bank was hijacked by armed thugs today.]
Mass protests in support of separatists and against Kyiv have just not materialised. Local workers are beginning to patrol streets to calm the situation.
It will be a tough job to contain and neutralise the separatist forces, but maybe..maybe, the tide has just started to turn a little now.
Video here
Zdrylyuk continually fidgeted nervously with a pen in one hand, and held a lighted cigarette in the other, flicking the ash onto the floor under the table. He looked stressed out, rather frightened and unconvincing, as if he knew, deep inside, his 'self defence force' will not be capable of delivering on his threats. Furthermore, he would have been well aware that by making such threats, so publicly, he would be be a marked man forever.
The gravity of his statement seemed to hit him as he spoke.
Residents in Donbas and elsewhere crave peace and stability above all else. For many months mass media in the east of the country have frightened the wits out of these people with tales of fascist banderites coming to cut their hearts out. Many would have welcomed Russian forces to provide some stability. but now it seems, the chances of this happening are receding.
Gradually it will dawn on many of these same residents that the main threat to stability in their region comes from these undisciplined anarchistic separatists as the disruption to their lives caused by their activities increases..[E.g. a high security vehicle delivering wages and pensions to a bank was hijacked by armed thugs today.]
Mass protests in support of separatists and against Kyiv have just not materialised. Local workers are beginning to patrol streets to calm the situation.
It will be a tough job to contain and neutralise the separatist forces, but maybe..maybe, the tide has just started to turn a little now.
Saturday, May 10, 2014
Two scenarios - bad and worse
In his Liga.net article entitled: 'The silence of Donbas..it's time for the region to decide what side it is on', Serhiy Vysotsky suggests two possible outcomes.
I've loosely translated portions:
Today, only two scenarios are possible for Donbas.
It is no secret that against a backdrop of a passive majority, the active minority wholeheartedly supports the idea of so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, even though the concept is vague and so far has only manifested itself in torture, kidnappings and robbery.
If Donbas decides to resist the bandits/anarchists imposed by the Kremlin then it will remain Ukrainian.
Citizens, with the support of security forces (but at the cost of many victims) will eventually clear the area of professional spies and mercenaries. Without external leadership the terrorists will dissipate or will transform into gangs that can be neutralized later.
The second, perhaps more prosaic scenario, looks more likely - the gradual transformation of the Donbas into a Somalia with the departure from the region of all normal and socially successful people. If this were to come about it will not be the result of security officials' caution but rather the passivity of the population which made possible the total control of the region by bandits and criminals in the 1990's.
Odesa, Kherson, Zaporizhzhe, Kharkiv have all clearly shown they have no plans to submit to a bunch of saboteurs and mercenaries. Only Donbas, offended by all, seems to await its fate passively.
The impression is that Ukraine is not engaged in a fight against terrorists on it territory, but rather some kind of colonial war is taking place. The population is either passively or openly opposing its own army, becoming a human shield in front of the security forces, allowing militants to fire behind their backs, the local police walking around with the ribbons of their occupiers and giving up the buildings of the authorities. All who saw the events in Mariupol can confirm ordinary people were involved in resisting Ukrainian troops.
With a passive majority and and active pro-Russian minority it will be impossible to keep the region as part of Ukraine without the loss of very many victims. Few Ukrainian politicians and generals want to turn Donbas into another Grozny for the sake of territorial integrity. Rivers of blood - this is not a price worth paying in the 21 st. century for the preservation of territory. To keep Donbas using brute force will require a strong satrap with dictatorial powers that will flood the region with money, but rule with an iron fist.
Otherwise it will be impossible to put the squeeze on terrorism. But there's a catch : the rest of Ukraine may not want to be an oppressor. People who fought against the dictatorship on the Maidan, will hardly want to become collective dictators themselves.
Sometimes it seems that the residents of Luhansk and Donetsk regions regard themselves as a prize in a struggle between two forces - Russian and Ukrainian . They are ready to submit to the stronger - to adapt. They are ready for colonization , even if this will mean the establishment of Russian-backed breakaway black hole - the People's Republic of Donetsk.
p.s. Lots of reports of looting by so-called separatists taking place in Mariyupol this evening...
p.p.s. Can't understand why separatists would want to cheat Sunday's referendum. According to the 'people's mayor' of Slovyansk, Vyacheslav Ponomaryov ; "The turn-out I think will be 100%. All will be in favour. Against - only the bourgeoisie."
Stories of a hundred thousand pre-filled ballot slips intercepted by pro-Kyiv law enforcement officials must be rubbish then.
I've loosely translated portions:
Today, only two scenarios are possible for Donbas.
It is no secret that against a backdrop of a passive majority, the active minority wholeheartedly supports the idea of so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, even though the concept is vague and so far has only manifested itself in torture, kidnappings and robbery.
If Donbas decides to resist the bandits/anarchists imposed by the Kremlin then it will remain Ukrainian.
Citizens, with the support of security forces (but at the cost of many victims) will eventually clear the area of professional spies and mercenaries. Without external leadership the terrorists will dissipate or will transform into gangs that can be neutralized later.
The second, perhaps more prosaic scenario, looks more likely - the gradual transformation of the Donbas into a Somalia with the departure from the region of all normal and socially successful people. If this were to come about it will not be the result of security officials' caution but rather the passivity of the population which made possible the total control of the region by bandits and criminals in the 1990's.
Odesa, Kherson, Zaporizhzhe, Kharkiv have all clearly shown they have no plans to submit to a bunch of saboteurs and mercenaries. Only Donbas, offended by all, seems to await its fate passively.
The impression is that Ukraine is not engaged in a fight against terrorists on it territory, but rather some kind of colonial war is taking place. The population is either passively or openly opposing its own army, becoming a human shield in front of the security forces, allowing militants to fire behind their backs, the local police walking around with the ribbons of their occupiers and giving up the buildings of the authorities. All who saw the events in Mariupol can confirm ordinary people were involved in resisting Ukrainian troops.
With a passive majority and and active pro-Russian minority it will be impossible to keep the region as part of Ukraine without the loss of very many victims. Few Ukrainian politicians and generals want to turn Donbas into another Grozny for the sake of territorial integrity. Rivers of blood - this is not a price worth paying in the 21 st. century for the preservation of territory. To keep Donbas using brute force will require a strong satrap with dictatorial powers that will flood the region with money, but rule with an iron fist.
Otherwise it will be impossible to put the squeeze on terrorism. But there's a catch : the rest of Ukraine may not want to be an oppressor. People who fought against the dictatorship on the Maidan, will hardly want to become collective dictators themselves.
Sometimes it seems that the residents of Luhansk and Donetsk regions regard themselves as a prize in a struggle between two forces - Russian and Ukrainian . They are ready to submit to the stronger - to adapt. They are ready for colonization , even if this will mean the establishment of Russian-backed breakaway black hole - the People's Republic of Donetsk.
p.s. Lots of reports of looting by so-called separatists taking place in Mariyupol this evening...
p.p.s. Can't understand why separatists would want to cheat Sunday's referendum. According to the 'people's mayor' of Slovyansk, Vyacheslav Ponomaryov ; "The turn-out I think will be 100%. All will be in favour. Against - only the bourgeoisie."
Stories of a hundred thousand pre-filled ballot slips intercepted by pro-Kyiv law enforcement officials must be rubbish then.
Thursday, May 01, 2014
A must-see debate
There have been so many excellent articles published all over the place, that your humble blogger has not had much to add to them on recent events in Ukraine.
I heartily recommend readers to watch and listen to this excellent debate which took place in London tonight. Top-class debaters representing very different points of view voice their opinions on recent events in Ukraine, and how Western countries should react to them.
p.s. The night before Yanukovych fled from Kyiv after the mass murder by snipers of demonstrators on the Maidan, a clear signal of what was about to occur was observed: "Rows of expensive vehicles were seen driving up to the small Zhulany airport near Kyiv, escorted by armoured security vehicles from which many suitcases and strong boxes werebeing transferred under the supervision of expensively fur-coated 'fancy women' and armed security staff."
Now one of the debate speakers, British author and journalist Ben Judah, says London's estate agents [realtors] are bragging how rich Ukrainians have been snapping up top-of-the-market London properties.... and paying in cash ...
I heartily recommend readers to watch and listen to this excellent debate which took place in London tonight. Top-class debaters representing very different points of view voice their opinions on recent events in Ukraine, and how Western countries should react to them.
p.s. The night before Yanukovych fled from Kyiv after the mass murder by snipers of demonstrators on the Maidan, a clear signal of what was about to occur was observed: "Rows of expensive vehicles were seen driving up to the small Zhulany airport near Kyiv, escorted by armoured security vehicles from which many suitcases and strong boxes werebeing transferred under the supervision of expensively fur-coated 'fancy women' and armed security staff."
Now one of the debate speakers, British author and journalist Ben Judah, says London's estate agents [realtors] are bragging how rich Ukrainians have been snapping up top-of-the-market London properties.... and paying in cash ...
Sunday, April 20, 2014
Slovyansk is scary place right now
If you want to know what is going on in Slovyansk read this BBC journalist's scary three-part report about his kidnapping by separatists...
He is currently in the town, and is providing video blogs of the latest shoot-out.
RT say six dead, but not confirmed as I write...
With so many armed 'crazies' wandering around, and black propaganda reporting, it may be very difficult to ascertain what truly happened...
Some commentators on the spot consider Slovyansk has now descended into chaos and anarchy. There have been incidents where separatists at road blocks have commandeered vehicles 'for the needs of 'The Donetsk Republic'. People running out of cash, and criminal gangs are beginning to fight amongst themselves.
There have been reports that the shootings last night were related to inter-gang warfare or friction between separatists and local criminal gangs, rather than provocation or attacks by 'Praviy Sektor'. There have been rumours all week that some separatists are receiving very large quantities of cash for their disruptive activities.
He is currently in the town, and is providing video blogs of the latest shoot-out.
RT say six dead, but not confirmed as I write...
With so many armed 'crazies' wandering around, and black propaganda reporting, it may be very difficult to ascertain what truly happened...
Some commentators on the spot consider Slovyansk has now descended into chaos and anarchy. There have been incidents where separatists at road blocks have commandeered vehicles 'for the needs of 'The Donetsk Republic'. People running out of cash, and criminal gangs are beginning to fight amongst themselves.
There have been reports that the shootings last night were related to inter-gang warfare or friction between separatists and local criminal gangs, rather than provocation or attacks by 'Praviy Sektor'. There have been rumours all week that some separatists are receiving very large quantities of cash for their disruptive activities.
Saturday, April 19, 2014
Slovyansk under siege
Almost exactly a year the town of Slovyansk and its 'gangster moll' mayor, Nelya Shtepa featured in on of my blogs.
Today, Slovyansk is totally in the hands of separatist thugs; Shtepa has been detained by them, 'for her own good.'
Ostrov.org describes the dire situation in which Slovyansk currently finds itself, in an article entitled: "Slovyansk siege, a few hours in a captured town"
Here's what they say:
Slovyansk is no longer controlled by Ukrainian authorities. The city is dominated by the separatist groups and has descended to an [anarchist] 'Gulyai Polye' enclosed on all sides by rows of barricades of tyres at the entrances to the city. The familiar young guys in masks and helmets, some with guns, some with sticks, are arrogantly spot-checking vehicles and carrying out inspections as they pass through.
These guyss react aggressively when they are called "separatists". Most of the participants in anti-government protests openly say they want to secede from Ukraine, but it is not clear whether they want a Donetsk Republic, or to go with Russia..
Since the start of the take-over of Slovyansk the number of people and cars seen on the streets has dramatically reduced. The unusual emptiness is striking..
It is difficult to assess how many separatists there are in the town, but could be about a thousand. Groups of armed men are constantly moving around the city by foot or in cars.
The situation, which not so long was diligently being stoked up by Party of Regions, in the end, it seems, has spun out of control. Mayor of Slovyansk Nelia Shtepa, who initially tried to appeal to the separatists and even declared support for them now speaks of them in an extremely unflattering manner. According to her, looting has started in the town, and uncontrolled criminal elements have seized power.
The separatists say Shtepa has been deposed and Sloviansk now has another mayor. It seems negotiations with the separatist are not going well for the "Regionals" to whom they respond almost as badly as to the government in Kyiv.
The main problem is the reluctance of separatists who have seized the town to negotiate with anyone at all.
Slovyansk remains under a voluntary siege, and if it goes on like this, then in the near future its residents will realise the full depth of their desperate situation.
In the past few days in Slovyansk a whole series of banks and shops have not been able to operate; deliveries of goods have stopped because suppliers fear robberies. Timely payments of pensions etc. to residents are now hardly likely.
Your bloggers comments: The patience of local officials and local businessmen must be wearing thin by now. But who can return Slovyansk, and similar towns now controlled by separatists to their dozy previous state?
Today, Slovyansk is totally in the hands of separatist thugs; Shtepa has been detained by them, 'for her own good.'
Ostrov.org describes the dire situation in which Slovyansk currently finds itself, in an article entitled: "Slovyansk siege, a few hours in a captured town"
Here's what they say:
Slovyansk is no longer controlled by Ukrainian authorities. The city is dominated by the separatist groups and has descended to an [anarchist] 'Gulyai Polye' enclosed on all sides by rows of barricades of tyres at the entrances to the city. The familiar young guys in masks and helmets, some with guns, some with sticks, are arrogantly spot-checking vehicles and carrying out inspections as they pass through.
These guyss react aggressively when they are called "separatists". Most of the participants in anti-government protests openly say they want to secede from Ukraine, but it is not clear whether they want a Donetsk Republic, or to go with Russia..
Since the start of the take-over of Slovyansk the number of people and cars seen on the streets has dramatically reduced. The unusual emptiness is striking..
It is difficult to assess how many separatists there are in the town, but could be about a thousand. Groups of armed men are constantly moving around the city by foot or in cars.
The situation, which not so long was diligently being stoked up by Party of Regions, in the end, it seems, has spun out of control. Mayor of Slovyansk Nelia Shtepa, who initially tried to appeal to the separatists and even declared support for them now speaks of them in an extremely unflattering manner. According to her, looting has started in the town, and uncontrolled criminal elements have seized power.
The separatists say Shtepa has been deposed and Sloviansk now has another mayor. It seems negotiations with the separatist are not going well for the "Regionals" to whom they respond almost as badly as to the government in Kyiv.
The main problem is the reluctance of separatists who have seized the town to negotiate with anyone at all.
Slovyansk remains under a voluntary siege, and if it goes on like this, then in the near future its residents will realise the full depth of their desperate situation.
In the past few days in Slovyansk a whole series of banks and shops have not been able to operate; deliveries of goods have stopped because suppliers fear robberies. Timely payments of pensions etc. to residents are now hardly likely.
Your bloggers comments: The patience of local officials and local businessmen must be wearing thin by now. But who can return Slovyansk, and similar towns now controlled by separatists to their dozy previous state?
Thursday, April 17, 2014
F-wiord not uttered by PoR today
The respected 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' newpaper reports Wednesday's fateful PoR EGM thus:
Regionals wants a referendum only on one issue - the Russian language
All of the demands of the Regionals can be solved by votes in parliament. A referendum is required only on the issue of [Russian as] a second state language.
Only the status of the Russian language would require a referendum; other amendments to the Constitution insisted upon by deputies of the Party of Regions from the Donetsk region, can be voted on in Parliament, said the secretary of the presidium of the political council of the party, Borys Kolesnikov.
"Only one demand requires a referendum. This is an amendment to the 10th article of the Constitution of Ukraine on official languages. Decentralization of power, the transfer of power to local administrations and liquidation of state administrations do not require a referendum. [A constitutional majority of over] 300 votes [in parliament] would be enough for a decision to be made," explained Kolesnikov to reporters after an emergency meeting of PoR deputies of all levels from the Donetsk region.
A resolution was adopted at this Congress . It was noted that members of the Party of Regions favour of unitary country, fiscal autonomy in the region, and called on protesters in eastern Ukraine to surrender and free up captured buildings.
There was no mention of the F word - Federalisation, which Moscow will be demanding in Geneva tomorrow at the 4-way crisis talks.
A ridiculous situation therefore exists: no major political force in Ukraine [except the Communists who hold only 32 of the 450 seats in parliament] are looking for a Federation solution to Ukraine's crisis. And yet, Russia, whose armed troops are allegedly spearheading aggressive capture of government buildings in Eastern Ukraine will be demanding exactly this on Thursday in Geneva..
These Russian stormtroopers will continue to cause mayhem and destabilise the country until such time they are stopped by lethal force...But right now, Ukraine's demoralised armed forces seem incapable of counteracting these Russian troops and their dubious Ukrainian supporters in any way.
Will Party of Regions and its billionaire sponsors allow themselves to be deemed irrelevant in Ukrainian politics? Or have they done a 'behind-the-scenes' deal with Putin already, giving him carte blanche, and today's EGM was merely a charade?
Regionals wants a referendum only on one issue - the Russian language
All of the demands of the Regionals can be solved by votes in parliament. A referendum is required only on the issue of [Russian as] a second state language.
Only the status of the Russian language would require a referendum; other amendments to the Constitution insisted upon by deputies of the Party of Regions from the Donetsk region, can be voted on in Parliament, said the secretary of the presidium of the political council of the party, Borys Kolesnikov.
"Only one demand requires a referendum. This is an amendment to the 10th article of the Constitution of Ukraine on official languages. Decentralization of power, the transfer of power to local administrations and liquidation of state administrations do not require a referendum. [A constitutional majority of over] 300 votes [in parliament] would be enough for a decision to be made," explained Kolesnikov to reporters after an emergency meeting of PoR deputies of all levels from the Donetsk region.
A resolution was adopted at this Congress . It was noted that members of the Party of Regions favour of unitary country, fiscal autonomy in the region, and called on protesters in eastern Ukraine to surrender and free up captured buildings.
There was no mention of the F word - Federalisation, which Moscow will be demanding in Geneva tomorrow at the 4-way crisis talks.
A ridiculous situation therefore exists: no major political force in Ukraine [except the Communists who hold only 32 of the 450 seats in parliament] are looking for a Federation solution to Ukraine's crisis. And yet, Russia, whose armed troops are allegedly spearheading aggressive capture of government buildings in Eastern Ukraine will be demanding exactly this on Thursday in Geneva..
These Russian stormtroopers will continue to cause mayhem and destabilise the country until such time they are stopped by lethal force...But right now, Ukraine's demoralised armed forces seem incapable of counteracting these Russian troops and their dubious Ukrainian supporters in any way.
Will Party of Regions and its billionaire sponsors allow themselves to be deemed irrelevant in Ukrainian politics? Or have they done a 'behind-the-scenes' deal with Putin already, giving him carte blanche, and today's EGM was merely a charade?
Tuesday, April 15, 2014
PoR no longer all-powerful in Eastern Ukraine
De facto PoR head, Borys Kolesnikov, says his party is demanding Ukraine remains a unitary state, but will insist on decentralization of authority and budgetary autonomy. The party will be staging an EGM of its deputies on 15th April.
"There will be consolidated position taken up by the PoR organisation at the regional, district and village council level, that the party unequivocally stands for a unitary country, but asks Kyiv to immediately take steps to decentralize authority and fiscal autonomy," said Kolesnikov.
Acting PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk, in broad measure, had agreed such terms with regional leaders on Friday, but the violent events in several towns contained roughly within the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk triangle, have totally swamped any further progress. Russian mass media immediately called Kyiv's proposal dirty lies.
But PoR are losing control over the levers of power in the region too. All senior local government officials, law enforcement officers, judiciary etc. were 100% PoR loyal. Now it seems, they have become fence-sitters.
The separatists causing such mayhem comprise several differing entities. There are professional military and intelligence men from Russia and Ukraine who have efficiently spearheaded the co-ordinated seizure of administrative buildings. There are paid local irregulars, many of them poor, who scrape a living e.g. in unlicensed coal mines, and other assorted malcontents from both sides of the border. For them the current troubles are an heaven-sent opportunity to earn some decent cash.
Then there are many sincere, very angry, disinformed citizens who want to vent their anger for their miserable lot on somebody..However, these people are no longer the people of Party of Regions...Rather they will support separatist leaders like Ihor Tsaryov with whom they share a common world view. Party of Regions, who gripped the eastern oblasts so tightly over many years, have lost control just like the central authorities in Kyiv.
Some citizens in the towns controlled by separatists are getting fed up already as their lives are being disrupted. There have been instances of looting. Mini-buses are being commandeered, and barricades manned by irregulars are hindering free movement. Mobile phone services are being disrupted and are increasingly erratic.The disruption of local administration services, payment of pensions etc. caused by the separatists' actions may quickly generate a backlash from normal citizens in the region who want their lives to return back to normal.
There are Russian flags being flown, but there are also many Donetsk Republic banners and posters too, perhaps indicating that differing groups have differing aims. Massed Russian forces just across the border are waiting for serious violence to trigger an invasion. Uncertainty and irrational motives breed anarchy...
However, there are some grounds to assume the currently greatly disorientated Party of Regions' will regroup and regain some control over events on their own patch.
"There will be consolidated position taken up by the PoR organisation at the regional, district and village council level, that the party unequivocally stands for a unitary country, but asks Kyiv to immediately take steps to decentralize authority and fiscal autonomy," said Kolesnikov.
Acting PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk, in broad measure, had agreed such terms with regional leaders on Friday, but the violent events in several towns contained roughly within the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk triangle, have totally swamped any further progress. Russian mass media immediately called Kyiv's proposal dirty lies.
But PoR are losing control over the levers of power in the region too. All senior local government officials, law enforcement officers, judiciary etc. were 100% PoR loyal. Now it seems, they have become fence-sitters.
The separatists causing such mayhem comprise several differing entities. There are professional military and intelligence men from Russia and Ukraine who have efficiently spearheaded the co-ordinated seizure of administrative buildings. There are paid local irregulars, many of them poor, who scrape a living e.g. in unlicensed coal mines, and other assorted malcontents from both sides of the border. For them the current troubles are an heaven-sent opportunity to earn some decent cash.
Then there are many sincere, very angry, disinformed citizens who want to vent their anger for their miserable lot on somebody..However, these people are no longer the people of Party of Regions...Rather they will support separatist leaders like Ihor Tsaryov with whom they share a common world view. Party of Regions, who gripped the eastern oblasts so tightly over many years, have lost control just like the central authorities in Kyiv.
Some citizens in the towns controlled by separatists are getting fed up already as their lives are being disrupted. There have been instances of looting. Mini-buses are being commandeered, and barricades manned by irregulars are hindering free movement. Mobile phone services are being disrupted and are increasingly erratic.The disruption of local administration services, payment of pensions etc. caused by the separatists' actions may quickly generate a backlash from normal citizens in the region who want their lives to return back to normal.
There are Russian flags being flown, but there are also many Donetsk Republic banners and posters too, perhaps indicating that differing groups have differing aims. Massed Russian forces just across the border are waiting for serious violence to trigger an invasion. Uncertainty and irrational motives breed anarchy...
However, there are some grounds to assume the currently greatly disorientated Party of Regions' will regroup and regain some control over events on their own patch.
Saturday, April 12, 2014
Putin's plan for Ukraine
Vadym Denyskenko, a highly-respected Ukrainian journalist and editor, [and Crimea specialist] answers the question everyone wants to know - what is Putin's Plan.
Below is my loose translation of his today's Espreso.tv op ed piece:
Civil War. Putin's Plan
The Kremlin's plan is at minimum - the trashing of the presidential elections by the hands of Ukrainians themselves and forcing an official Kyiv to recognize the legitimacy of the separatists. At maximum it includes a civil War
Kyiv has no control over the Donbass.
The region is not controlled by Akhmetov, or anyone else in Ukraine. Donbass is today again controlled by Yanukovych, or more precisely Russia's GRU [Main Intelligence Directorate] which has been, and continues to be part of Yanukovych's circle.
Within two weeks they will clean up Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts. Each city council, district council, and then oblast council will make a decision to stage a referendum, on the status of second state language, etc.
A decision will be made to create, and arm, an army of the SouthEast which will be activated to protect the Russian-speaking population of the SouthEast. A month before the presidential election, Kyiv will have no control over nearly seven million Ukrainian citizens.
Whether the Russians can conduct a similar operation in other areas of the south-east is an open question, but the likelihood of such a scenario is more than high.
The main objective of the Russian Federation is not clear. The separatists are demanding a referendum on accession to Moscow - but such a referendum is not required by Moscow because it could go against them in all regions except the Luhansk [as indicated by latest OP's LEvko].
Obviously, the Russians are betting on another scenario - on a controlled civil war. The big question is along which line do they want to form a cordon.
They need a local conflict in which right-wing radicals fight with the Russian population. Thus Russia will be able to continue to broadcast this image of events to its own viewers.
The second important question - is Kyiv is ready for such a war? Apparently not. This means only one thing - the legitimacy of government in the capital will be drastically reduced with every seizure of yet another police headquarters building.
The second task of the Kremlin is to render Kyiv authorities semi-legitimate from the point of view of most Kievans and residents of pro-Ukraine areas; ideally to get Kyiv authorities to resign under the pressure of "Right sector".
In yesterday's statements by the Russia's Minister of Finance, Siluanov, he specifically expressed the view that Ukraine should be offered money in exchange for recognition of the annexation of the Crimea. Simply put, the Russian's position on the eve of the four party meeting (between Kerry, Ashton, Lavrov, and Deshchitsa) can be boiled down to this: they are willing to back down, but in Ukraine must recognize the annexation of Crimea, and the EU must abandon sanctions.
Current events in the Donbas indicate Russia is raising the stakes. The EU clearly understands what a nightmare the flow of refugees from a pseudo-civil war (actually a Ukraine-Russia war) at the borders of the EU would be. There is no doubt that if the EU and the U.S. refuse to compromise, the Russians will continue to expand the boundaries of the separatist entities. By extending these formations, they are driving the Ukrainian economy into a dead end.
Now everything depends on the determination of the Ukrainian government, which at the moment, does not exist.
Below is my loose translation of his today's Espreso.tv op ed piece:
Civil War. Putin's Plan
The Kremlin's plan is at minimum - the trashing of the presidential elections by the hands of Ukrainians themselves and forcing an official Kyiv to recognize the legitimacy of the separatists. At maximum it includes a civil War
Kyiv has no control over the Donbass.
The region is not controlled by Akhmetov, or anyone else in Ukraine. Donbass is today again controlled by Yanukovych, or more precisely Russia's GRU [Main Intelligence Directorate] which has been, and continues to be part of Yanukovych's circle.
Within two weeks they will clean up Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts. Each city council, district council, and then oblast council will make a decision to stage a referendum, on the status of second state language, etc.
A decision will be made to create, and arm, an army of the SouthEast which will be activated to protect the Russian-speaking population of the SouthEast. A month before the presidential election, Kyiv will have no control over nearly seven million Ukrainian citizens.
Whether the Russians can conduct a similar operation in other areas of the south-east is an open question, but the likelihood of such a scenario is more than high.
The main objective of the Russian Federation is not clear. The separatists are demanding a referendum on accession to Moscow - but such a referendum is not required by Moscow because it could go against them in all regions except the Luhansk [as indicated by latest OP's LEvko].
Obviously, the Russians are betting on another scenario - on a controlled civil war. The big question is along which line do they want to form a cordon.
They need a local conflict in which right-wing radicals fight with the Russian population. Thus Russia will be able to continue to broadcast this image of events to its own viewers.
The second important question - is Kyiv is ready for such a war? Apparently not. This means only one thing - the legitimacy of government in the capital will be drastically reduced with every seizure of yet another police headquarters building.
The second task of the Kremlin is to render Kyiv authorities semi-legitimate from the point of view of most Kievans and residents of pro-Ukraine areas; ideally to get Kyiv authorities to resign under the pressure of "Right sector".
In yesterday's statements by the Russia's Minister of Finance, Siluanov, he specifically expressed the view that Ukraine should be offered money in exchange for recognition of the annexation of the Crimea. Simply put, the Russian's position on the eve of the four party meeting (between Kerry, Ashton, Lavrov, and Deshchitsa) can be boiled down to this: they are willing to back down, but in Ukraine must recognize the annexation of Crimea, and the EU must abandon sanctions.
Current events in the Donbas indicate Russia is raising the stakes. The EU clearly understands what a nightmare the flow of refugees from a pseudo-civil war (actually a Ukraine-Russia war) at the borders of the EU would be. There is no doubt that if the EU and the U.S. refuse to compromise, the Russians will continue to expand the boundaries of the separatist entities. By extending these formations, they are driving the Ukrainian economy into a dead end.
Now everything depends on the determination of the Ukrainian government, which at the moment, does not exist.
Thursday, April 10, 2014
Kolomoysky shows the way [Updated]
From Oleksand Chernenko's Facebook:
"The number of yellow and blue flags in Dnipropetrovsk, on automobiles, buildings, advertisements is impressive.
In closed questionaires support for Ihor Kolomoysky in the city is 77%.."
Kolomoysky was recently appointed head of the Dnipropetrovsk oblast administration.
He is a Ukrainian-Israeli business oligarch of Jewish descent, one of top two or three richest men in Ukraine, owner of Privat Bank...etc. etc.
Here's a photo of Kolomoysky in a tee shirt. On it is imprinted a seven-branched candlestick that also resembles a Ukrainian trident symbol.
Under is is written 'ZhydoBandera...'
There have been no Crimea, Luhansk, Kharkiv-like disturbances in his city...
The man is a hero...and has a sense of humour...deserves respect...
"The number of yellow and blue flags in Dnipropetrovsk, on automobiles, buildings, advertisements is impressive.
In closed questionaires support for Ihor Kolomoysky in the city is 77%.."
Kolomoysky was recently appointed head of the Dnipropetrovsk oblast administration.
He is a Ukrainian-Israeli business oligarch of Jewish descent, one of top two or three richest men in Ukraine, owner of Privat Bank...etc. etc.
Here's a photo of Kolomoysky in a tee shirt. On it is imprinted a seven-branched candlestick that also resembles a Ukrainian trident symbol.Under is is written 'ZhydoBandera...'
There have been no Crimea, Luhansk, Kharkiv-like disturbances in his city...
The man is a hero...and has a sense of humour...deserves respect...
Update:
Read this from 'NYT':
"Mr. Kolomoysky, a Russian speaker who has both Israeli and Ukrainian passports, scoffed at the Kremlin’s pledges to protect Jews, Russian-speakers and other minorities. “We can protect ourselves. We don’t need any protection from Russia,” he said. “There is no fascism here. It does not exist.”
Anti-Semitism is experienced in daily life, he said, but gets no support or encouragement from the state, unlike in Russia, where the security services have tolerated and at times nurtured neo-Nazi nationalist groups with openly anti-Semitic agendas."
Monday, April 07, 2014
Disturbances in Eastern Ukraine must be sorted at local level [Updated]
The "fireworks thrown by noisy neighbours from the east" are intended to disrupt Ukraine's May 25 presidential elections. Any winner of these elections will certainly be a pro-EU, pro-western vector candidate.
If regional authorities in the country's easternmost oblasts cannot currently prevent demonstrators taking over large administration buildings, how will can they preserve calm at local polling stations and in local electoral commission headquarters?
Powerful local oligarchs must stop playing their dangerous game of remaining inactive to gain maximum leverage with any new president. They must act immediately, utilising their massive resources to stabilise the situation, otherwise the integrity of the country is at grave risk.
There are some reports alleging 'King of Donbas' Rinat Akhmetov may even be covertly supporting the separatists wreaking havoc on the streets of Donetsk.
The OSCE and other European bodies must do their utmost to enable fair, verifiable elections to take place in May.
Seasoned British journalist, suggests in a tweet today that PM David Cameron make an urgent call to number One Hyde Park...
There is good reason to believe that unrest in Donetsk is being conducted by about one thousand people only, some perhaps are 'imports' whilst others paid 'titushky' - not that many for a regional city of almost one million. Support for them amongst the local population is limited and not particularly enthusiastic - the numbers participating in the unrest has not increased significantly in recent days. Apart from disturbances in and around captured civic buildings, life proceeds as normal in the city. The timid response of law enforcement officers adds to an air of collusion and artificiality - confirmed to your blogger by eye-witnesses.
Update - Rinat Akhmetov has gone to the the occupied Oblast Administration Building to meet with separatists, declaring: "Donbas is Ukraine." I wonder what undertakings had to be given in order he enter the fray? Will he be able to keep all the assets, the utility companies, the industrial enterprises, media holdings etc. etc. he accumulated under Yanukovych? Will his people remain embedded in state oversight committees? And what of Yanukovych Jr's and Serhiy Kurchenko's assets? Who will get first dibs? Co-incidentally Yulia Tymoshenko was in Donetsk today too...but refused to say who she met...
If regional authorities in the country's easternmost oblasts cannot currently prevent demonstrators taking over large administration buildings, how will can they preserve calm at local polling stations and in local electoral commission headquarters?
Powerful local oligarchs must stop playing their dangerous game of remaining inactive to gain maximum leverage with any new president. They must act immediately, utilising their massive resources to stabilise the situation, otherwise the integrity of the country is at grave risk.
There are some reports alleging 'King of Donbas' Rinat Akhmetov may even be covertly supporting the separatists wreaking havoc on the streets of Donetsk.
The OSCE and other European bodies must do their utmost to enable fair, verifiable elections to take place in May.
Seasoned British journalist, suggests in a tweet today that PM David Cameron make an urgent call to number One Hyde Park...
There is good reason to believe that unrest in Donetsk is being conducted by about one thousand people only, some perhaps are 'imports' whilst others paid 'titushky' - not that many for a regional city of almost one million. Support for them amongst the local population is limited and not particularly enthusiastic - the numbers participating in the unrest has not increased significantly in recent days. Apart from disturbances in and around captured civic buildings, life proceeds as normal in the city. The timid response of law enforcement officers adds to an air of collusion and artificiality - confirmed to your blogger by eye-witnesses.
Update - Rinat Akhmetov has gone to the the occupied Oblast Administration Building to meet with separatists, declaring: "Donbas is Ukraine." I wonder what undertakings had to be given in order he enter the fray? Will he be able to keep all the assets, the utility companies, the industrial enterprises, media holdings etc. etc. he accumulated under Yanukovych? Will his people remain embedded in state oversight committees? And what of Yanukovych Jr's and Serhiy Kurchenko's assets? Who will get first dibs? Co-incidentally Yulia Tymoshenko was in Donetsk today too...but refused to say who she met...
Wednesday, April 02, 2014
Why EuroMaidan arose
EuroMaidan sprung up not because of some fascist or 'western-inspired' plot.
It arose spontaneously because of the bitter disappointment, the loss of hope, felt by millions of Ukrainians, particularly the young, when Yanukovych turned away from signing the Association Agreement with Europe. It grew because of Yanukovych's brutal treatment of student demonstrators and his pig-headed ignorance of their, at first, most modest demands.
Ukraine's western vector had been declared for years previously, by all of Ukraine's former presidents. The AA would have been just a small, but significant step in that direction.
It arose because of the brazen stealing by Yanukovych and his Donetsk mafia pals, worthy of the most despicable African dictators, [as described in this detailed English language article], and the total arrogance and impunity of law enforcement officials and judiciary under the control of Yanukovych, that accompanied it. Everyone was sick to the back teeth of it.
Poroshenko and Tymoshenko will now both run on a solid, pro-EU ticket in May's presidential elections. The votes they will together garner will confirm the direction in which most Ukrainians continue to strive...where their future lies...
It arose spontaneously because of the bitter disappointment, the loss of hope, felt by millions of Ukrainians, particularly the young, when Yanukovych turned away from signing the Association Agreement with Europe. It grew because of Yanukovych's brutal treatment of student demonstrators and his pig-headed ignorance of their, at first, most modest demands.
Ukraine's western vector had been declared for years previously, by all of Ukraine's former presidents. The AA would have been just a small, but significant step in that direction.
It arose because of the brazen stealing by Yanukovych and his Donetsk mafia pals, worthy of the most despicable African dictators, [as described in this detailed English language article], and the total arrogance and impunity of law enforcement officials and judiciary under the control of Yanukovych, that accompanied it. Everyone was sick to the back teeth of it.
Poroshenko and Tymoshenko will now both run on a solid, pro-EU ticket in May's presidential elections. The votes they will together garner will confirm the direction in which most Ukrainians continue to strive...where their future lies...
Sunday, March 30, 2014
US and Russia must include Ukraine in negotiations
From Mustafa Nayem's facebook:
"Moscow has given Washington an ultimatum: either the federalization of Ukraine with regions acquiring self-determination on foreign policy issues, or the Kremlin reserves the right to overcome "the crisis" in Ukraine by all means available to her.
I.e., either we [Ukrainians] remain serfs of the United States and of Russia, or we will be conquered.
Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama remind me of Viktor Yanukovych and the opposition during the times of Maidan.
For three months Bank Street [president's administration] and opposition leaders tried to build realities ignoring the opinions and demands of the people.
Now the United States and Russia are deciding the future without even inviting Ukrainians to the negotiating table. We have already seen where this could end.
A Maidan 2.0 awaits - a geopolitical one. Whether this could be a cohesive protest or a guerrilla war is not yet clear.
They may negotiate about lots of things, but in end Ukraine should have the final say - however pathetic this may sound."
[Gleaned from Matthew Kaminski's twitter]
p.s. Watch this 20 minute video from a man who really knows Odessa and Ukrainian politics in general.
"Moscow has given Washington an ultimatum: either the federalization of Ukraine with regions acquiring self-determination on foreign policy issues, or the Kremlin reserves the right to overcome "the crisis" in Ukraine by all means available to her.
I.e., either we [Ukrainians] remain serfs of the United States and of Russia, or we will be conquered.
Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama remind me of Viktor Yanukovych and the opposition during the times of Maidan.
For three months Bank Street [president's administration] and opposition leaders tried to build realities ignoring the opinions and demands of the people.
Now the United States and Russia are deciding the future without even inviting Ukrainians to the negotiating table. We have already seen where this could end.
A Maidan 2.0 awaits - a geopolitical one. Whether this could be a cohesive protest or a guerrilla war is not yet clear.
They may negotiate about lots of things, but in end Ukraine should have the final say - however pathetic this may sound."
[Gleaned from Matthew Kaminski's twitter]
p.s. Watch this 20 minute video from a man who really knows Odessa and Ukrainian politics in general.
Thursday, March 27, 2014
Poroshenko to be next president? [Updated]
Latest OPs indicate Petro Poroshenko will be next Ukrainian president - 24.9% of voters are ready to support him.
Klychko is at 8.9%,
Tymoshenko has 8.2% support.
PoR candidate Serhiy Tihipko is currently supported by 7.3% of voters.
Poroshenko and Klychko met British PM Cameron and his Foreign Secretary Hague today at 10 Downing Street.
The emotional maelstrom currently being experienced by many Ukrainians is described by the excellent young journalist , Ben Judah here.
Update: Lots more interesting latest OP figures, in English, here from the Polish Institute of Foreign Affairs e.g..
Klychko is at 8.9%,
Tymoshenko has 8.2% support.
PoR candidate Serhiy Tihipko is currently supported by 7.3% of voters.
Poroshenko and Klychko met British PM Cameron and his Foreign Secretary Hague today at 10 Downing Street.
The emotional maelstrom currently being experienced by many Ukrainians is described by the excellent young journalist , Ben Judah here.
Update: Lots more interesting latest OP figures, in English, here from the Polish Institute of Foreign Affairs e.g..
- Support for the snap parliamentary election is rock solid: 66%
- Predictably, public support for NATO membership has grown – 34% are in favor (compared to only 20% in November 2013), anti-NATO sentiments diminished – only 40% are against (compared to 65% a year ago). Most crucially however: another 19% are undecided; this group can be “won over” by the media and politicians.
- Solid majority support for EU membership – 52% (compared to 45-47% in January), only 27% support Ukraine’s membership in Russia’s Customs Union (down from 36% in January).
Sunday, March 23, 2014
Saturday, March 22, 2014
Another must-see video
Another must see video - this time from British Channel 4 News - a brief inteview with the brilliant young journalist Ben Judah..
The British should hang their heads in shame...
The British should hang their heads in shame...
Friday, March 21, 2014
A must see video..
I cannot recommend strongly enough this video of a brilliant recent presentation at Chatham House, London, By Professor Michael Ignatieff, Professor of Practice, Harvard University; with eminent British journalist, Lindsey Hilsum, International Editor, Channel 4 News, in the chair.
Is the Age of Intervention Over?
"Professor Michael Ignatieff explores whether democratic support for intervention is eroding across the West, and what the consequences are for international relations and the concept of responsibility to protect. He also discusses how the current situation in Crimea reflects a twisting of the language of intervention to suit geopolitical purposes."
Is the Age of Intervention Over?
"Professor Michael Ignatieff explores whether democratic support for intervention is eroding across the West, and what the consequences are for international relations and the concept of responsibility to protect. He also discusses how the current situation in Crimea reflects a twisting of the language of intervention to suit geopolitical purposes."
Tuesday, March 18, 2014
Notes on Crimean land grab
The excellent Orysia Lutsevych of Chatham House tweeted this a few hours ago:
"#crimea annexation also result of total failure of Kyiv policy to integrate the peninsula with the mainland. They all failed to anchor it."
Results from a most detailed sociological research conducted on the peninsula by the Razumkov centre several years ago support Lutsevych' assertions.
E.g When co-respondents were asked in 2006 if they considered Ukraine to be their fatherland [batkivshchyna] 74% said yes. By 2008, this figure had dropped to 40.1%. The number who had difficulty replying increased from 3.8 to 27% during that same period.
When Crimeans were asked in 2009 whether Ukraine should join up to a Russian/Belarus union, 78.6% said yes.
When asked if Ukraine should enter the European Union, there were twice as many no's as yes's.
Notably, around 80% had never come across any discrimination on nationalistic lines, at work or in educational establishments, so its seems Crimea was a racially harmonious and agreeable place... [until now]...even though, according to the research, less than 3% of Crimea's population usually spoke Ukrainian at home...
Had there been a properly conducted referendum with 'stay as we are', or 'go for independence and possible reunification with Russia' options, the information provided by Razumkov in their research indicates a majority would most likely choose the latter option, but the majority would not be overwhelming...
Nevertheless, Party of Regions, which held 80 out of the 100 seats in the Crimean parliament, did not include secession in their 2010 election campaign programme. And Russia, by signing the Budapest accord, and by agreeing and paying rent for their base in Sevastopol over many years, merely continually confirmed they considered Crimea to be Ukrainian sovereign territory.
p.s. In 1940 your humble blogger's father conducted his Red Army military training in what was the Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic of Crimea. He got to know Crimea well and always considered it to be Tatar...he often recalled the dread that filled the indigenous Tatar population at the sight of a 'ruskiy soldat'..Putin's claim that, "Crimea has always been and remains an inseparable part of Russia," would not have convinced my dad, despite the large Slavic influx in the '30's.
p.p.s. Read this marvellous article from the brilliant Timothy Snyder..."Freedom in Russian exists only in Ukraine"
"Russian is a completely normal language of interchange in Ukraine. There, tens of millions of Russian-speakers read a free press, watch uncontrolled television and learn from an uncensored internet, in either Ukrainian or in Russian, as they prefer.
In Russia, the major social media have been brought under state control, television has been almost completely subdued and several of the remaining free-thinking blogs and internet news sites have been shut down or pressured. This leaves Ukraine as an island of free speech for people who use the Russian language.
There is a country where millions of Russian-speakers lack basic rights. That country is the Russian Federation. There is a neighbouring country where tens of millions of Russian-speakers enjoy basic rights — despite the disruptions of a revolution and Russian invasion. That country is Ukraine. "
Finally, I recommend this article: 'Crimea’s Sudeten Crisis', by Bobo Lo, Chatham House:
"The West should stop reacting to Putin with “shock and awe” – shock that he can act with such seeming impunity, and awe at his perceived tactical brilliance. Europe and the US have vastly greater influence and resources than Russia, with its atrophied political system and exhausted economic model. What they lack is the willingness to accept the economic and political costs of defending the values that they claim to uphold.
Western leaders must recognize that appeasement cannot ensure peace and stability in Europe – not even under the fig leaf of “engagement.” When dealing with a leader whose credo is defined by the notion that “the weak get beaten,” Western governments must demonstrate their resolve, without sacrificing flexibility. Only on this basis can the crisis in Ukraine be addressed without fundamentally compromising transatlantic security."
"#crimea annexation also result of total failure of Kyiv policy to integrate the peninsula with the mainland. They all failed to anchor it."
Results from a most detailed sociological research conducted on the peninsula by the Razumkov centre several years ago support Lutsevych' assertions.
E.g When co-respondents were asked in 2006 if they considered Ukraine to be their fatherland [batkivshchyna] 74% said yes. By 2008, this figure had dropped to 40.1%. The number who had difficulty replying increased from 3.8 to 27% during that same period.
When Crimeans were asked in 2009 whether Ukraine should join up to a Russian/Belarus union, 78.6% said yes.
When asked if Ukraine should enter the European Union, there were twice as many no's as yes's.
Notably, around 80% had never come across any discrimination on nationalistic lines, at work or in educational establishments, so its seems Crimea was a racially harmonious and agreeable place... [until now]...even though, according to the research, less than 3% of Crimea's population usually spoke Ukrainian at home...
Had there been a properly conducted referendum with 'stay as we are', or 'go for independence and possible reunification with Russia' options, the information provided by Razumkov in their research indicates a majority would most likely choose the latter option, but the majority would not be overwhelming...
Nevertheless, Party of Regions, which held 80 out of the 100 seats in the Crimean parliament, did not include secession in their 2010 election campaign programme. And Russia, by signing the Budapest accord, and by agreeing and paying rent for their base in Sevastopol over many years, merely continually confirmed they considered Crimea to be Ukrainian sovereign territory.
p.s. In 1940 your humble blogger's father conducted his Red Army military training in what was the Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic of Crimea. He got to know Crimea well and always considered it to be Tatar...he often recalled the dread that filled the indigenous Tatar population at the sight of a 'ruskiy soldat'..Putin's claim that, "Crimea has always been and remains an inseparable part of Russia," would not have convinced my dad, despite the large Slavic influx in the '30's.
p.p.s. Read this marvellous article from the brilliant Timothy Snyder..."Freedom in Russian exists only in Ukraine"
"Russian is a completely normal language of interchange in Ukraine. There, tens of millions of Russian-speakers read a free press, watch uncontrolled television and learn from an uncensored internet, in either Ukrainian or in Russian, as they prefer.
In Russia, the major social media have been brought under state control, television has been almost completely subdued and several of the remaining free-thinking blogs and internet news sites have been shut down or pressured. This leaves Ukraine as an island of free speech for people who use the Russian language.
There is a country where millions of Russian-speakers lack basic rights. That country is the Russian Federation. There is a neighbouring country where tens of millions of Russian-speakers enjoy basic rights — despite the disruptions of a revolution and Russian invasion. That country is Ukraine. "
Finally, I recommend this article: 'Crimea’s Sudeten Crisis', by Bobo Lo, Chatham House:
"The West should stop reacting to Putin with “shock and awe” – shock that he can act with such seeming impunity, and awe at his perceived tactical brilliance. Europe and the US have vastly greater influence and resources than Russia, with its atrophied political system and exhausted economic model. What they lack is the willingness to accept the economic and political costs of defending the values that they claim to uphold.
Western leaders must recognize that appeasement cannot ensure peace and stability in Europe – not even under the fig leaf of “engagement.” When dealing with a leader whose credo is defined by the notion that “the weak get beaten,” Western governments must demonstrate their resolve, without sacrificing flexibility. Only on this basis can the crisis in Ukraine be addressed without fundamentally compromising transatlantic security."
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