Odesa knows what it wants

Okean Elzy are probably the most successful and popular rock band in Ukraine's history. They was formed in 1994 in Lviv. The band's vocalist and frontman is Svyatoslav Vakarchuk.

Okean Elzy are also popular in most CIS countries

The band firmly supported  and performed at the Euromaidan-protests in Kyiv last winter.

On June 22, the day after Ukraine declared a ceasefire in the east of the country, 70,000 people enjoyed a 20th anniversary concert in Kyiv staged by the band. The frontman’s message to the audience was that a united Ukraine can achieve anything. [Reuters video, with brief Vakarchuk interview here]

Yesterday, the band performed in Odesa in front of around 50,000 fans - the biggest concert ever seen in the city.

The stadium was filled with yellow and blue flags and lights - even more than were seen during the Euromaidan, according to people shouting in the fan zone..
[Photos and brief video at this link]

Anyone who has visited the city will know it is almost entirely Russophone...

p.s. ...compare with this:

In Kharkiv around 100 generally older folks with red flags  protested against the conducting of anti-terrorist actions this Sunday..

In April many if not most residents in the Donbas were in favour of the creation of a possible Donetsk People's Republic. Since then many local businessmen, both large and small in the Donbas region have been systematically subjected to extortion and have frequently been held hostage by Donetsk People's Republic mobsters..According to this report from Censor.net.ua, now all they want is for the Ukrainian army to come as quickly as possible and end the disorder..

A must-see video - Russia, Ukraine and the West: Is Confrontation Inevitable?

Absolutely essential viewing - this most engrossing video of Chatham House, London event which took place 25 Jun 2014:

Russia, Ukraine and the West: Is Confrontation Inevitable?

Participants:
CHRYSTIA FREELAND, MEMBER OF CANADIAN PARLIAMENT

MICHAEL MCFAUL, US AMBASSADOR TO RUSSIA (2012-14)

JOHN MEARSHEIMER, PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO

DMITRI TRENIN, DIRECTOR, CARNEGIE MOSCOW CENTER

CHAIR: ROGER COHEN, COLUMNIST, THE NEW YORK TIMES

How events will pan out in Eastern Ukraine

Respected commentator and journalist, Vadym Densysenko, explains the dangers for Ukraine in continuing the current ceasefire.

Here is a summary of the points he makes:

President Poroshenko, following the signing of the Association Agreement document with the EU, is under great pressure both from the EU and from Russia, to 'freeze' the conflict and maintain the current ceasefire.

Russia needs time to create state-like institutions, banking, law enforcement agencies, civil servants structures etc. for its Novorossiya project for Eastern Ukraine. Denysenko says that Oleh Tsaryov [photo below] has now been earmarked to lead this project. Unlike the current leader of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic leader Aleksander Boroday, at least Tsaryov can claim to be Ukrainian. He will be totally loyal to the Russian leadership, and will scrupulously follow their instructions.

Introduction of Russian/EU monitors will help freeze the conflict further. Opinion in the rest of Ukraine to jettison Donbas region could grow, particularly if 'stimulated' by organised anti-war protests etc. Deterioration in the country's economy could increase these sentiments further.

But, Denisenko concludes, right now, Putin need a period of 'peace' to help legitimise Tsaryov, and permit roots of the Novorossiya project to take hold.

Your blogger wonders what do the elites, the businessmen and local officials, that have run Donbas with such a firm grip for almost two decades think about all of this? How did they permit everything to slip out out hand? They surely will lose out in any new set-up. Their cosy and corrupt money-making  schemes will surely be seriously messed up. And as for being bossed about by Tsaryov, aka 'Neanderthal' by his parliamentary colleagues, hmmm

And the residents in the two easternmost Ukrainian oblasts? What kind of future can they expect in a limbo 'Transdnistria- type' state? Pretty bleak I would guess.

p.s Good graphic representation of who's who in the DPR here 

DPR has little support in Donetsk

A good indicator of the degree of support for the Donetsk People's Republic was provided by the attendance in the central square of Donetsk city today at an anti-Ukrainian meeting addressed by the leaders of the DPR.

More photos here

The fact that political, business and industrial elites of Donbas permitted such a tiny group of rabble that is the DNP to take over their oblast so easily leads to only one conclusion - they were acting at the behest of these elite groups.

There are many eyewitness reports of law enforcement officials co-operating or turning turning a blind eye to what was going on.

This photograph was taken today

Three policemen stand idly by as an armed man walks/manhandles a handcuffed prisoner in a most professional manner to who knows where [to be held hostage for ransom?]. The armed man has no markings on his military fatigues.

The DNP is a stillborn project. Its backers are now only concerned with detachment from this fiasco...hence the pathetic turn-out. The violence from separatists is the work of the Kremlin.

Support for DPR evaporating

Yevgen Іkhelzon, in his Ukr Pravda blog, describes the Donetsk People's Republic as a "stillborn revolution"

Here are bits of what he has to say:

"When you walk along the streets of Donetsk, the impression is that everything that is happening there is the handiwork of the local "elites" i.e. the attempt to declare independence was organized by leaders of the Party of Regions who were in close contact with the "family" of former President Yanukovych.

In Donetsk itself, things are quiet. Only one battle has taken place there - at the airport. At the same time, in the area around Slovyansk serious clashes continue, but in Donetsk people say little about this, and are not particularly keen on sending help. The so-called Donetsk People's Republic is full of oddities and contradictions which are difficult to understand even for the smarter locals. Probably, I do not understand much either, but here are my views:

DPR.

Almost all logically thinking locals believe that senior Party of Regions figures such as Nikolai Levchenko, [linked to Rinat Akhmetov] stood at the origins of the DPR. There is even a persistent rumours that the DPR governor Pavel Gubarev is a relative Levchenko's.

However, after its birth, something went badly wrong and the situation got out of control for several reasons - money pumped in by Aleksander Yanukovych [to pay troublemakers and create havoc], rapid involvement of Russian officials such as Glazyev and Zhirinovsky; and then the Communists and Russian nationalists piled in. This explosive combination, under the banner of DPR, tried to seize power in the Donbas in a re-run of the "Crimean scenario" - entering local authority buildings, taking control of the region, staging a 'referendum', inviting Russian troops and waiting to take up positions in a new region of Russia.

But the situation slipped out of control of local "feudal lords" and industrial chiefs. It has now become clear that Russia will not invade, and the DPR is a fictitious organisation that does not actually control anything.  Influence and power still belong to the Akhmetov's people. Local say that the so-called "Vostok" battalion has good relations with Akhmetov, and the mayor Luk'yanchenko is protected by "Oplot."

Sentiment among locals is mixed but now that support for the DPR is slipping, citizens do not understand why DPR is needed at all, when the mayor's office still exists. All that remains of the DPR are patrols, semi-deserted road checkpoints and several hundred militants who sit in their bases and occasionally occupy state institution buildings, incurring the wrath of the mayor Luk'yanchenko.

It is obvious that the flow of money from Russia has dried up. No-one attends rallies for free, and the idea of regional independence is not as tempting as the idea of raised wages and pensions which were to be provided by Vladimir Putin.

Current state of Donbas region.

In Donetsk many cafes and businesses are closed; in the evening the city is completely empty and there are far fewer people that usual on the streets during the day. Tens of thousands of people have fled the city, the vast majority did so not because of the ATO, but for the following reasons: intolerable atmosphere in the city, the presence of armed men from which good would come; so better to wait until things calm down. There have never been so many 'For Rent' signs on business premises in Donetsk.

I must say that the atmosphere is really quiet, but an air of tension exists. The enthusiasm for the DPR is declining rapidly in the city, I did not notice any St. George ribbons or Russian flags on cars; DPR flags hang only on admin buildings.

On public transport, people do not talk about politics, not knowing who shares their own thoughts. In private conversations people criticize the DPR and want everything return back to as it was (there are different opinions, but all are inclined to believe that Kyiv should negotiate and not fight for this to happen).

Bifurcated authority

Essentially, almost all Ukrainian institutions are  fully functioning and behave just as before the DPR took over. Pensions and social benefits are being paid, and until recently, there has been no interference with the National Bank of Ukraine. Donetsk city council is fully operational, the police patrol the streets together with the DPR soldiers in camouflage and Cossacks, and all are unarmed.

Patrols are rare, and are not especially hunting for anyone, police in Ukrainian police uniform attend call-outs and perform their duties normally.

It should be noted almost the entire staff of the police and the Security Services of Donetsk did not interfere, but even assisted in the seizure of buildings from which large numbers of weapons were plundered for distribution to the separatist militia. This could not have happened without clear orders of local elites. Similarly, the "protesters" were permitted to enter the Oblast Administration building where they remain until now. Police are still working from their usual buildings, and the SBU have reverted to a "home working" mode. Just as with most Donetsk residents, enthusiasm for the DPR is falling in police ranks, providing a hope that in the future Donetsk may return back to the Ukrainian fold.

Prospects for the Anti Terrorist Operation.

Ukrainian patriots living in Donetsk complain that Ukrainian law enforcers did not conduct any reconnaissance before starting any military action in the city. E.g. when the battle for the airport took place, the Ukrainian army could have easily taken the Oblast Admin building too.

Any large-scale combat operations with aircraft and widespread destruction in Donetsk will be highly counterproductive - support for the DPR will only grow as a result.  Pinpoint spetsnaz operations with the support of local people can be much more efficient. Even more effective can be negotiations with the real masters of the city where hundreds of thousands of supporters of a unified Ukraine currently live.

Prospects for the DPR

The DPR cannot exist without two things - Russian propaganda and a Russian invasion. Russian television, which today is watched by almost all the inhabitants of Donetsk, creates a virtual reality.

The possibility of a Russian invasion still exists  - it could happen if Glazyev, Dugin and Zhirinovsky persuade Putin to do it.

Without these two factors Donetsk Republic is doomed and will soon cease to exist. TV and clumsy actions of the troops executing the ATO can prolong the agony, and a possible Russian invasion would dramatically complicate the situation in Ukraine."
------------------------------------------------------
Several other local bloggers and commentators paint a similar picture.

Appeal from Mayor of Donetsk

One person who has conducted himself honourably throughout the hybrid war currently taking place in in Eastern Ukraine, looking after the welfare of his city's citizens, is the popular, long-time Mayor of Donetsk, Aleksander Lukyanchenko.

Today he made the following statement:

"Today there are calls and appeals by many politician and deputies to declare martial law and to roll out full scale hostilities in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. I remind you that these two oblasts contain 42 cities, 36 districts and have a population of about 7 million inhabitants.

Until now, no one has explained why hundreds of armed militants can penetrate, virtually unchecked, into our country's territory or who is paying them. I am convinced that not one of these mercenaries is fighting out of idealism. No one is drawing any attention to these important questions. There are only accusations of separatism and complicity directed at the seven million inhabitants.  [My highlight]

This is despite the fact that residents are already suffering from the armed conflicts and that they comprise no less 15% of the [country's total] population.

The life support structure of these cities and regions is on the verge of a humanitarian disaster. The introduction of martial law, in my opinion, will not improve the situation, but only make it worse. First, it is not clear what forces will be provided to maintain this state [of martial law] on the territory of all these cities and two oblasts. Secondly, with open borders, these measures are practically useless. Third, the military situation will lead to the destruction of the infrastructure of cities and lead to an uncontrolled flow of refugees.

I want to appeal to the President of our country, the Government and Parliament to start immediate full-scale talks at the highest level on the territory of our two oblasts to resolve the conflict with the involvement of our northern neighbour - Russia, and international organizations. With their intermediation it is essential to stop this fratricidal war, to prevent the deaths of civilians, children and the elderly. While there is at least one chance to stop the war, it should be used."

[Video here]

IMO It is vital that the properly elected ruling authorities in the two Easternmost oblasts be fully engaged in negotiations if there is to be any chance of the conflict being resolved. President Poroshenko must make this clear right away.

Two 'must see' videos

If you have a spare hour do watch this video of a recent Hromadske.tv/Atlantic Council discussion, entitled:

'From Revolution to Reform'

entirely in English, with British journalist David Patrikarakos, Ukrainian Minister of Economic Development PavloSheremeta, the impressive, passionate Hanna Hopko [more about this rising star here], and Adrian Karatnycky. [Actually starts about 5 minutes into the video]

Also this video, also all in English, from

Wroclaw Global Form 2014 - Plenary Panel 4 — Building a New Ukraine: A Pillar of European Security?

Panelists: Paula Dobriansky, former US Undersecretary of State for Global Affairs; Carl Gershman, President, National Endowment for Democracy; Senator Ron Johnson, US Senate; Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, Member of European Parliament; Ievgen Vorobiov, Analyst, Polish Institute of International Affairs
Moderator: Matthew Kaminski, Member of Editorial Board, The Wall Street Journal

p.s. I really liked this from John O'Sullivan in the 'Spectator' 

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain – what Putin's really up to

Russia’s foreign policy has become a ‘Wizard of Oz’ mixture of fake grandiosity and real menace

ATO will continue

James Sherr on the current troubles:

"...it's important to bear in mind when you talk about separatism in the east [of Ukraine], we're talking about activity in two eastern regions, out of six. And if you look at the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine, which are predominantly Russian speaking -- that's nine regions. And in only two, and at that only parts of two, are the separatists pretty firmly in control. So that context has to be borne in mind.

The Russians' tactics are rapidly adjusting. When the Russians started this whole enterprise in eastern Ukraine, they expected that the citizen population living there would rise up in their support. And that has not happened. We had hundreds of thousands of people on the street in Kiev [referring to the original protests in December], you have not have that in Donetsk and Luhansk -- the fighters have been supported by at most crowds of hundreds, and at most a few thousands.

So they started changing tactics then. And I think the election itself has been a further blow to them. 

Their preoccupation still is to get Western acquiescence in an overall deal that will federalize Ukraine in such a way that the regions it partially controls will not only have autonomy, but have veto power over the central government itself. That's what they mean by federalization..."

Will withdrawal of armed separatists/proxies help Putin achieve his goal? Most unlikely...For this reason Kyiv have no other choice but to continue their anti-terrrorist operation [ATO] 

Many of the separatist gunmen are shameless looters and thieves. Locals are getting fed up with them already. 

Donetsk region on the verge of economic disaster

The catastrophic effect the current troubles in Ukraine's easternmost oblasts are having on the local economy are described in an interview in 'Segodnya' with Donetsk State University professor, Yuriy Makogon.

He explains the economy of Donetsk region is primarily export-oriented with about 70% of production going to markets outside Ukraine.

If the Donetsk People's Republic formally declares independence, two-thirds of its export markets could be lost.

Even now manufacture of engineering products has fell back by 40% and unemployment in the region over the last 4 months  had doubled. Small and medium businesses have  been particularly badly hit.

Makogon believes the region will lose about 30% of its gross domestic product this year.

Even in the event of a most optimistic scenario of speedy resolution to the current conflict it will be 2016 before industrial production climbs back to 2008 levels.

The economic outlook it truly bleak.

What are Vostok Battalion doing in Donbas?

A totally plausible explanation why the Kremlin-controlled 'Vostok Battalion' has been active in Eastern Ukraine is provided by the excellent Mark Galeotti in his blog. 

Some thought-provoking comments too..

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty today also provide illuminating information in their article "Vostok Battalion, A Powerful New Player In Eastern Ukraine" 

Galeotti concludes:

Moscow’s strategy of chaos has worked too well, eating away not just at the cohesion of the rump Ukrainian state but also the emergent East Ukrainians, too. There appears to be increasing evidence of disputes between militias, and between the relatively professional defectors from the Ukrainian security forces, the opportunist thugs, and the “war tourists” from Russia. [And local mafia gangs ..LEvko] Thus, Moscow’s hopes to be able to cut a deal with Kyiv–regardless of whether Poroshenko can and will offer the Kremlin what it wants–depends now on bringing order to chaos. The Russians wished for chaos; now they know why so many folk tales warn of being careful what one wishes for…

Shakhtar Donetsk bus attacked

Shakhtar Donetsk team bus attacked [hijacked?] by team of Donetsk People's Republic gun men. Video here

This is a big deal...a massive challenge to the king of Donbas...to Shaktar's massive base of supporters...How many more of them will now turn out to vote in Sunday's presidential election as a result?

Dare I say, a massive own-goal by the separatists?

p.s. You tocha ma car...I smasha you face...[!?]

Russian extremists now dictating agenda in Donbas

Russian journalist Oleg Kashin, on slon.ru site provides a creditable account of what has been going on these last few months in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.

He explains why, embarrassingly for Putin, two Russian citizens, Alexander Boroday, [now 'premier' of the Donetsk People's Republic] and Igor Girkin/Strelkov,  ['Commander of the Donetsk People's Militia'], have come to occupy their exalted positions even though neither has ever had much to do with that part of Ukraine.

'Ukrainska Pravda' also quote Kashin  to reveal Russian oligarch, Konstyantin Malofyeyev,  co-operated with the Russian army in the Spring operation to annex Crimea, in joint 'semi-state/semi-private partnership' .

Malofyeyev, a staunch supporter of the Russian Orthodox Church and friend of Putin's crackpot political guru Alexander Dugin , had already been active in Crimea, sponsoring the mayor of Sevastopol, Aleksey Chaliy, to the tune of $1 million.

Boroday, a Russian political technologist and former employee of Malofyeyev's, was sent to work as an adviser to Serhiy Aksyonov [a.k.a Goblin, a Crimean gangster/politician - now Crimean PM] when the Crimea land grab got under way.

Aksyonov had previously lead the so-called Russian Unity Party on the peninsula.

Strelkov, an officer in the Russian military reserves who holds extremist, radical views on eliminating enemies of the Russian state, was invited to join the Crimea operation by Boroday. The pair had been long-time friends.

Following a quick and clean 'victory' and annexation in Crimea, instead of returning home, Boroday and Strelkov, were carried away by their success and thought they would have a crack at 'liberating' the Donbas region of Ukraine too.

However, as the Slon.ru article explains, matters were not quite that simple because other players had also walked onto the stage in the region. Pavel Gubarev came out of nowhere to declare himself leader of the Donbas People's Militia, and then unofficial 'governor of the Donetsk oblast' following the initial seizure of Donetsk state administration buildings. Perhaps a Kremlin 'stooge', he was arrested by pro-Kyiv forces then released in a prisoner exchange, but now does not hold any official position in the Donetsk People's Republic, [even though his wife is, ahem, 'minister of foreign affairs']. Because of his 'demotion' Gubarev has now moved closer to Strelkov; if Moscow will require a local lackey in future if the region were to seek closer ties, he would 'do nicely'. [His experience as a part-time Christmas time Dyed Moroz/Santa Claus may prove helpful in this regard].

Another player on the stage is Denis Pushilin, previously only known for his involvement in the notorious million dollar MMM Ponzi scheme fraud a decade ago. Slon.ru alleges Pushilin, [now Donetsk People's Republic chairman], is a puppet whose strings are being pulled by Rinat Akhmetov.

Pushilin had been set up to establish a fake semi-autonomous republic, but without the excessive use of force, to occupy buildings in Donetsk etc., and provide Akhmetov leverage in his dealings with the new powers in Kyiv following the flight of former president Yanukovych.

Pushilin's project was a flimsy parody of last winter's events in Kyiv, and has now been completely eclipsed by the deeds of serious, bloodthirsty crazies like Strelkov in Slovyansk and other smaller towns.

Slon.ru compares Strelkov in Donbas to Che Guevara in Bolivia. Streklov achieved success in Crimea, as Guevara [and Castro] had in Cuba. Both thought they could repeat similar revolutions elsewhere. Guevara, of course came to a sticky end.

There is now increasing tension between Donetsk and Slovyansk. Pushilin and the pseudo-separatists in Donetsk have become the hostages of Strelkov and his terrorist thugs too.

Oleg Kashin concludes: "Russia, of course, is responsible for the Ukrainian crisis from its inception, and in the case of Donbas just the propaganda support is sufficient to consider Russia the patron of the separatists. But propaganda support can be switched on.. and can be switched off, as has happened more than once. But how can you turn off field commander like Strelkov? Developments in Slovyansk strongly indicates that this portion of the Ukrainian Front is living by its own laws, and has long since gone beyond Ukrainian internal domestic intrigue involving Akhmetov and that "public-private partnership" that was seen in Crimea. And there is nothing in the world more interesting than political intrigue which has slipped out of control of its original authors."

Is tide just beginning to turn?

Serhiy Zdrylyuk, deputising for his boss, leader of the 'Donbas Self-Defence Force, Ihor Strelkov, staged a bizarre, rather shambolic press conference today, presenting an ultimatum to Ukrainian military forces - unless they withdraw their heavy equipment from the area 'everything will be destroyed and burned'.

Video here

Zdrylyuk continually fidgeted nervously with a pen in one hand, and held a lighted cigarette in the other, flicking the ash onto the floor under the table. He looked stressed out, rather frightened and unconvincing, as if he knew, deep inside, his 'self defence force' will not be capable of delivering on his threats. Furthermore, he would have been well aware that by making such threats, so publicly, he would be be a marked man forever.

The gravity of his statement seemed to hit him as he spoke.

Residents in Donbas and elsewhere crave peace and stability above all else. For many months mass media in the east of the country have frightened the wits out of these people with tales of fascist banderites coming to cut their hearts out. Many would have welcomed Russian forces to provide some stability. but now it seems, the chances of this happening are receding.

Gradually it will dawn on many of these same residents that the main threat to stability in their region comes from these undisciplined anarchistic separatists as the disruption to their lives caused by their activities increases..[E.g. a high security vehicle delivering wages and pensions to a bank was hijacked by armed thugs today.]

Mass protests in support of separatists and against Kyiv have just not materialised. Local workers are beginning to patrol streets to calm the situation.

It will be a tough job to contain and neutralise the separatist forces, but maybe..maybe,  the tide has just started to turn a little now.

Two scenarios - bad and worse

In his Liga.net article entitled: 'The silence of Donbas..it's time for the region to decide what side it is on', Serhiy Vysotsky suggests two possible outcomes.

I've loosely translated portions:

Today, only two scenarios are possible for Donbas.

It is no secret that against a backdrop of a passive majority, the active minority wholeheartedly supports the idea of so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, even though the concept is vague and so far has only manifested itself in torture, kidnappings and robbery.

If Donbas decides to resist the bandits/anarchists imposed by the Kremlin then it will remain Ukrainian.

Citizens, with the support of security forces (but at the cost of many victims) will eventually clear the area of professional spies and mercenaries. Without external leadership the terrorists will dissipate or will transform into gangs that can be neutralized later.

The second, perhaps more prosaic scenario, looks more likely - the gradual transformation of the Donbas into a Somalia with the departure from the region of all normal and socially successful people. If this were to come about it will not be the result of security officials' caution but rather the passivity of the population which made possible  the total control of the region by bandits and criminals in the 1990's.

Odesa, Kherson, Zaporizhzhe, Kharkiv have all clearly shown they have no  plans to submit to a bunch of saboteurs and mercenaries. Only Donbas, offended by all, seems to await its fate passively.

The impression is that Ukraine is not engaged in a fight against terrorists on it territory, but rather some kind of colonial war is taking place. The population is either passively or openly opposing its own army, becoming a human shield in front of the security forces, allowing militants to fire behind their backs, the local police walking around with the ribbons of their occupiers and giving up the buildings of the authorities. All who saw the events in Mariupol can confirm ordinary people were involved in resisting Ukrainian troops.

With a passive majority and and active pro-Russian minority it will be impossible to keep the region as part of Ukraine without the loss of very many victims. Few Ukrainian politicians and generals want to turn Donbas into another Grozny for the sake of territorial integrity. Rivers of blood - this is not a price worth paying in the 21 st. century for the preservation of territory. To keep Donbas  using brute force will require a strong satrap with dictatorial powers that will flood the region with money, but rule with an iron fist.

 Otherwise it will be impossible to put the squeeze on terrorism. But there's a catch : the rest of Ukraine may not want to be an oppressor. People who fought against the dictatorship on the Maidan, will hardly want to become collective dictators themselves.

Sometimes it seems that the residents of Luhansk and Donetsk regions regard themselves as a prize in a struggle between two forces - Russian and Ukrainian . They are ready to submit to the stronger - to adapt. They are ready for colonization , even if this will mean the establishment of Russian-backed breakaway black hole - the People's Republic of Donetsk.

p.s. Lots of reports of looting by so-called separatists taking place in Mariyupol this evening...

p.p.s. Can't understand why separatists would want to cheat Sunday's referendum. According to the 'people's mayor' of Slovyansk, Vyacheslav Ponomaryov ; "The turn-out I think will be 100%. All will be in favour. Against - only the bourgeoisie."

Stories of a hundred thousand pre-filled ballot slips  intercepted by pro-Kyiv law enforcement officials must be rubbish then.

A must-see debate

There have been so many excellent articles published all over the place, that your humble blogger has not had much to add to them on recent events in Ukraine.

I heartily recommend readers to watch and listen to this excellent debate which took place in London tonight. Top-class debaters representing very different points of view voice their opinions on recent events in Ukraine, and how Western countries should react to them.

p.s. The night before Yanukovych fled from Kyiv after the mass murder by snipers of demonstrators on the Maidan, a clear signal of what was about to occur was observed: "Rows of expensive vehicles were seen driving up to the small Zhulany airport near Kyiv, escorted by armoured security vehicles from which many suitcases and strong boxes werebeing transferred under the supervision of expensively fur-coated 'fancy women' and armed security staff."

Now one of the debate speakers, British author and journalist Ben Judah, says London's estate agents [realtors] are bragging how rich Ukrainians have been snapping up top-of-the-market London properties.... and paying in cash ...

Slovyansk is scary place right now

If you want to know what is going on in Slovyansk read this BBC journalist's scary three-part report about his kidnapping  by separatists...

He is currently in the town, and is providing video blogs of the latest shoot-out.

RT say six dead, but not confirmed as I write...

With so many armed 'crazies' wandering around, and black propaganda reporting, it may be very difficult to ascertain what truly happened...

Some commentators on the spot consider Slovyansk has now descended into chaos and anarchy. There have been incidents where separatists at road blocks have commandeered vehicles 'for the needs of 'The Donetsk Republic'. People running out of cash, and criminal gangs are beginning to fight amongst themselves.

There have been reports that the shootings last night were related to inter-gang warfare or friction between separatists and local criminal gangs, rather than provocation or attacks by 'Praviy Sektor'. There have been rumours all week that some separatists are receiving very large quantities of cash for their disruptive activities.

Slovyansk under siege

Almost exactly a year the town of Slovyansk and its 'gangster moll' mayor, Nelya Shtepa featured in on of my blogs.

Today, Slovyansk is totally in the hands of separatist thugs; Shtepa has been detained by them, 'for her own good.'

Ostrov.org describes the dire situation in which Slovyansk  currently finds itself, in an article entitled: "Slovyansk siege, a few hours in a captured town"

Here's what they say:

Slovyansk is no longer controlled by Ukrainian authorities. The city is dominated by the separatist groups and has descended to an [anarchist] 'Gulyai Polye' enclosed on all sides by rows of barricades of tyres at the entrances to the city. The familiar young guys in masks and helmets, some with guns, some with sticks, are arrogantly spot-checking vehicles and carrying out inspections as they pass through.

These guyss react aggressively when they are called "separatists". Most of the participants in anti-government protests openly say they want to secede from Ukraine, but it is not clear whether they want a Donetsk Republic, or to go with Russia..

Since the start of the take-over of Slovyansk the number of people and cars seen on the streets has dramatically reduced. The unusual emptiness is striking..

It is difficult to assess how many separatists there are in the town, but could be about a thousand. Groups of armed men are constantly moving around the city by foot or in cars.

The situation, which not so long was diligently being stoked up by Party of Regions, in the end, it seems, has spun out of control. Mayor of Slovyansk Nelia Shtepa, who initially tried to appeal to the separatists and even declared support for them now speaks of them in an extremely unflattering manner. According to her, looting has started in the town, and uncontrolled criminal elements have seized power.

The separatists say Shtepa has been deposed and Sloviansk now has another mayor. It seems negotiations with the separatist are not going well for the "Regionals" to whom they respond almost as badly as to the government in Kyiv.

The main problem is the reluctance of separatists who have seized the town  to negotiate with anyone at all.

Slovyansk remains under a voluntary siege, and if it goes on like this, then in the near future its residents will realise the full depth of their desperate situation.

In the past few days in Slovyansk a whole series of banks and shops have not been able to operate; deliveries of goods have stopped because suppliers fear robberies. Timely payments of pensions etc. to residents are now hardly likely.

Your bloggers comments: The patience of local officials and local businessmen must be wearing thin by now. But who can return Slovyansk, and similar towns now controlled by separatists to their dozy previous state?

F-wiord not uttered by PoR today

The respected 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' newpaper reports Wednesday's fateful PoR EGM thus:

Regionals wants a referendum only on one issue - the Russian language
  
All of the demands of the Regionals can be solved by votes in parliament. A referendum is required only on the issue of [Russian as] a second state language.

Only the status of the Russian language would require a referendum; other amendments to the Constitution insisted upon by deputies of the Party of Regions from the Donetsk region, can be voted on in Parliament, said the secretary of the presidium of the political council of the party, Borys Kolesnikov.

"Only one demand requires a referendum. This is an amendment to the 10th article of the Constitution of Ukraine on official languages. Decentralization of power, the transfer of power to local administrations and liquidation of state administrations do not require a referendum. [A constitutional majority of over] 300 votes [in parliament] would be enough for a decision to be made," explained Kolesnikov to reporters after an emergency meeting of PoR deputies of all levels from the Donetsk region.

A resolution was adopted at this Congress . It was noted that members of the Party of Regions favour of unitary country, fiscal autonomy in the region, and called on protesters in eastern Ukraine to surrender and free up captured buildings.

There was no mention of the F word - Federalisation, which Moscow will be demanding in Geneva tomorrow at the 4-way crisis talks.

A ridiculous situation therefore exists: no major political force in Ukraine [except the Communists who hold only 32 of the 450 seats in parliament] are looking for a Federation solution to Ukraine's crisis. And yet, Russia, whose armed troops are allegedly spearheading aggressive capture of government buildings in Eastern Ukraine will be demanding exactly this on Thursday in Geneva..

These Russian stormtroopers will continue to cause mayhem and destabilise the country until such time they are stopped by lethal force...But right now, Ukraine's demoralised armed forces seem incapable of counteracting these Russian troops and their dubious Ukrainian supporters in any way.

Will Party of Regions and its billionaire sponsors allow themselves to be deemed irrelevant in Ukrainian politics? Or have they done a 'behind-the-scenes' deal with Putin already, giving him carte blanche, and today's EGM was merely a charade?

PoR no longer all-powerful in Eastern Ukraine

De facto PoR head, Borys Kolesnikov, says his party is demanding Ukraine remains a unitary state, but will insist on decentralization of authority and budgetary autonomy. The party will be staging an EGM of its deputies on 15th April.

"There will be consolidated position taken up by the PoR organisation at the regional, district and village council level, that the party unequivocally stands for a unitary country, but asks Kyiv to immediately take steps to decentralize authority and fiscal autonomy," said Kolesnikov.

Acting PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk, in broad measure, had agreed such terms with regional leaders on Friday, but the violent events in several towns contained roughly within the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk triangle, have totally swamped any further progress. Russian mass media immediately called Kyiv's proposal dirty lies.

But PoR are losing control over the levers of power in the region too. All senior local government officials, law enforcement officers, judiciary etc. were 100% PoR loyal. Now it seems, they have become fence-sitters.

The separatists causing such mayhem comprise several differing entities. There are professional military and intelligence men from Russia and Ukraine who have efficiently spearheaded the co-ordinated seizure of administrative buildings. There are paid local irregulars, many of them poor, who scrape a living e.g. in unlicensed coal mines, and other assorted malcontents from both sides of the border. For them the current troubles are an heaven-sent opportunity to earn some decent cash.

Then there are many sincere, very angry, disinformed citizens who want to vent their anger for their miserable lot on somebody..However, these people are no longer the people of Party of Regions...Rather they will support separatist leaders like Ihor Tsaryov with whom they share a common world view. Party of Regions, who gripped the eastern oblasts so tightly over many years, have lost control just like the central authorities in Kyiv.

Some citizens in the towns controlled by separatists are getting fed up already as their lives are being disrupted. There have been instances of looting. Mini-buses are being commandeered, and barricades manned by irregulars are hindering free movement. Mobile phone services are being disrupted and are increasingly erratic.The disruption of local administration services, payment of pensions etc. caused by the separatists' actions may quickly generate a backlash from normal citizens in the region who want their lives to return back to normal.

There are Russian flags being flown, but there are also many Donetsk Republic banners and posters too, perhaps indicating that differing groups have differing aims. Massed Russian forces just across the border are waiting for serious violence to trigger an invasion. Uncertainty and irrational motives breed anarchy...

However, there are some grounds to assume the currently greatly disorientated Party of Regions' will regroup and regain some control over events on their own patch.

Putin's plan for Ukraine

Vadym Denyskenko, a highly-respected Ukrainian journalist and editor, [and Crimea specialist] answers the question everyone wants to know - what is Putin's Plan.

Below is my loose translation of his today's Espreso.tv op ed piece:

Civil War. Putin's Plan

The Kremlin's plan is at minimum - the trashing of the presidential elections by the hands of Ukrainians themselves and forcing an official Kyiv to recognize the legitimacy of the separatists. At maximum it includes a civil War

Kyiv has no control over the Donbass.

The region is not controlled by Akhmetov, or anyone else in Ukraine. Donbass is today again controlled by Yanukovych, or more precisely Russia's GRU [Main Intelligence Directorate] which has been, and continues to be part of Yanukovych's circle. 

Within two weeks they will clean up Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts. Each city council, district council, and then oblast council will make a decision to stage a referendum, on the status of second state language, etc. 

A decision will be made to create, and arm, an army of the SouthEast which will be activated to protect the Russian-speaking population of the SouthEast. A month before the presidential election, Kyiv will  have no control over nearly seven million Ukrainian citizens.

Whether the Russians can conduct a similar operation in other areas of the south-east is an open question, but the likelihood of such a scenario is more than high.

The main objective of the Russian Federation is not clear. The separatists are demanding a referendum on accession to Moscow - but such a referendum is not required by Moscow because it could go against them in all regions except the Luhansk [as indicated by latest OP's  LEvko]. 

Obviously, the Russians are betting on another scenario - on a controlled civil war. The big question is along which line do they want to form a cordon.
They need a local conflict in which right-wing radicals fight with the Russian population. Thus Russia will be able to continue to broadcast this image of events to its own viewers.

The second important question - is Kyiv is ready for such a war? Apparently not. This means only one thing - the legitimacy of government in the capital will be drastically reduced with every seizure of yet another police headquarters building. 

The second task of the Kremlin is to render Kyiv authorities semi-legitimate from the point of view of most Kievans and residents of pro-Ukraine areas; ideally to get Kyiv authorities to resign under the pressure of  "Right sector".

In yesterday's statements by the Russia's Minister of Finance, Siluanov, he specifically expressed the view that Ukraine should be offered money in exchange for recognition of the annexation of the Crimea. Simply put, the Russian's position on the eve of the four party meeting (between Kerry, Ashton, Lavrov, and Deshchitsa)  can be boiled down to this: they are willing to back down, but in Ukraine must recognize the annexation of Crimea, and the EU must abandon sanctions.

Current events in the Donbas indicate Russia is raising the stakes. The EU clearly understands what a nightmare the flow of refugees from a pseudo-civil war (actually a Ukraine-Russia war) at the borders of the EU would be. There is no doubt that if the EU and the U.S. refuse to compromise, the Russians will continue to expand the boundaries of the separatist entities. By extending these formations, they are driving the Ukrainian economy into a dead end. 

Now everything depends on the determination of the Ukrainian government, which at the moment, does not exist.