Several days ago 'The Economist' magazine pondered whether 'A Somalia scenario' awaits Eastern Ukraine where the Donbas "becomes a swathe of ungoverned territory harbouring bandits who cross into the rest of Ukraine to raid, kidnap and steal...or a "Transdniestria [type] region, where organised crime and corruption have flourished under a Russian-backed regime."
Anyone who thinks this is overdramatisation should read Yevhen Shibalov's article "Donetsk People's Republic' from the inside - a short primer" in the 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' newspaper. It explains why it will be so difficult for any normal authority to co-operate with DPR in any meaningful manner to restore order. Here's what he says:
Initially Russian special services and politicians, as well as many of the Donbas elite, and even some Kyiv figures had high hopes for the DPR project, but its chaotic structure and unpredictable and violent nature makes it almost impossible to know how to handle this monster.
The DPR is formed of two often opposing disparate wings - the 'sylovyky' [power people] wing, and the 'polityky'. The sylovyky military wing, which comprises mainly field commanders of varying types, certainly dominates. The sylovyky do not take orders from the polityky...but occasionally take account of their requests when it suits them.
The leadership of the DNR can be split into several groups and sub-groups.
First there are 'The Idealists' who supported the DNR project from the very beginning; they can be split into two sub-groups: The Republicans, and the Anti-Kyivites.
This group's initial aim was federalisation..but as the Kremlin committed more arms and financial resources and violence erupted, their ambitions grew...first to autonomy, and then to creation of a fully independent republic. However this was not what the Kremlin had in mind at all.
The Republicans are led by Andrei Purgin. Many of his supporters have done well for themselves, commandeering apartments... automobiles etc.
The Anti-Kyivite sub-group do not recognise the new authorities in Ukraine's capital, but are ready to accept Donbas remaining part of Ukraine on their own terms. Their leaders include Oleksiy Hranovskyi and Oleksandr Khryakov. Oleksandr Khodakovsky, a 'Vostok' field commander is also attached to this group.
The Idealists included some whose intention was to attach Donbas to Russia proper, but most of these have left the oblast as chances of this occurring fade.
Representatives of the Idealists take part in any negotiations with Kyiv and other parties.
A second significant group in DPR are 'The Betrayed'. These include those who feel betrayed by local elites in Donbas. Many had been members of sylovyk structures under Yanukovych e.g. DPR 'chief of police', form head of Donetsk economic crime unit, Oleh Dykiy, and the above-mentioned Khodakovsky who had been head of an 'Alpha' special forces unit. Amongst 'The Betrayed' are guys who feel betrayed by Ukraine proper, who had come from other parts of the country initially to fight against the DPR, but feel they have been let down, so have switched loyalty to DPR.
A third significant group in the DPR are The Parachutists and Imports from Russia who look down upon the Idealists, but as the chances of Donbas linking up with Russia proper recede, this third group's influence is receding too. Their main man was Vladimir Antyufyeyev, formerly of ex-TransDnistrian security services, but he has now left Donbas. The Parachutists still fulfil a role of co-ordinating supply of arms and humanitarian aid to the region from Russia.
The final group in DNR are the 'crazies' who participated in many serious human rights violations, who have nowhere else to go. They include local thugs and gangsters, foreign mercenaries, 'volunteers', looters, adrenalin junkies etc. They operate in small unorganised units and are accountable to no-one.
The current head of the DPR Oleksandr Zakharchenko has great difficulty coordinating all of these disparate groups. He allegedly recently survived an assassination attempt when the car he was travelling was flipped over. His state of health is unknown. Many of his close team have now left the Donbas oblast.
And amongst this lot of vipers are millions of normal everyday Donbas citizens who just want some peace and quiet and stability, and are not overtly concerned who will be in power. Many have descended into a deep apathy...just waiting for things to end. Those who can have left, perhaps to seek a better life elsewhere.
Sunday, September 28, 2014
Friday, September 26, 2014
Will EU call Gazprom's bluff?
A trilateral meeting on gas issues between Ukraine, the EU and Russia is due to take place on Friday September. 26.
The German "Handelsblatt" newspaper reports that Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak has threatened to stop the supply of gas to Europe if some consumer countries re-export gas to Ukraine in its hour of need.
Both Russia and the EU are well aware, both as gas supplier and gas consumers, they are absolutely, irrevocably linked. As Owen Matthews in 'Newsweek' explains: "An all-out gas war between Europe and Russia would be the economic equivalent..... “of the old MAD thinking”—MAD being the Cold War acronym for the mutually assured destruction that would follow a nuclear strike. "
So when are individual European countries going to smarten up their act and finally call Russia's bluff?
EU gas utility companies can stop taking back-handers from Gazprom and take control of purchase of Russian gas in a co-ordinated and synchronised manner in order to obtain the best possible single price, most importantly, at the Russian-Ukrainian border. They can sort out further transportation and storage down the line amongst themselves.
It can be done, if the political will exists. Europeans have to sort this out ASAP otherwise they will continue to be blackmailed by the Kremlin.
Meanwhile Ukrainians, in extremis, will not allow their children and grandparents to freeze in their apartments and houses whilst vast quantities of gas flow through their country.
Could turn out to be quite a battle of wills...
The German "Handelsblatt" newspaper reports that Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak has threatened to stop the supply of gas to Europe if some consumer countries re-export gas to Ukraine in its hour of need.
Both Russia and the EU are well aware, both as gas supplier and gas consumers, they are absolutely, irrevocably linked. As Owen Matthews in 'Newsweek' explains: "An all-out gas war between Europe and Russia would be the economic equivalent..... “of the old MAD thinking”—MAD being the Cold War acronym for the mutually assured destruction that would follow a nuclear strike. "
So when are individual European countries going to smarten up their act and finally call Russia's bluff?
EU gas utility companies can stop taking back-handers from Gazprom and take control of purchase of Russian gas in a co-ordinated and synchronised manner in order to obtain the best possible single price, most importantly, at the Russian-Ukrainian border. They can sort out further transportation and storage down the line amongst themselves.
It can be done, if the political will exists. Europeans have to sort this out ASAP otherwise they will continue to be blackmailed by the Kremlin.
Meanwhile Ukrainians, in extremis, will not allow their children and grandparents to freeze in their apartments and houses whilst vast quantities of gas flow through their country.
Could turn out to be quite a battle of wills...
Thursday, September 25, 2014
Yatsenyuk at Council on Foreign .Relations.
Listen to this 60 minute conversation with PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk at the Council for Foreign Affairs about the extremely complicated and difficult situation in which Ukraine finds itself.
Friday, September 19, 2014
Yevtushenkov's arrest, war in Donbas, and Putin
Vladimir Yevtushenkov, one of Russia's richest men, was placed under house arrest a couple of days ago accused of money laundering. There were suggestions this was primarily an asset grab instigated by Igor Sechin, a close ally of Vladimir Putin.
However Vitaliy Portnikov in Liga.net explains that the arrest may be linked to Putin and his war in Donbas.
Here is a summary of what he has to say:
Yevtushenkov had been building up a web of business and other interests in Ukraine over several years, and had been close to former president Viktor Yanukovych. It was Yevtushenkov who was making offers to the former president "that he could not refuse" in order he scuttle the Association Agreement so carefully constructed between the EU and Ukraine.
But most importantly, Yevtushenkov was the main oligarch standing behind Konsyantin Malofyeyev, about whom I have previously written.
Malofyeyev was one of the main organisers of the invasion and coup in Crimea - the "Orthodox oligarch" obsessed with the restoration the Russia's former empire. He generously financed the separatists/terrorists in the self-proclaimed Luhansk and Donetsk republics, and is allegedly the main sponsor of arms purchases and the paymaster for Russian volunteers/mercenaries currently operating on Ukrainian territory. It may also be that Yevtushenkov was the conduit through which Yanukovych provided operational funding to the separatists from the massive sums he had stolen from Ukraine's budget. Nevertheless, the overarching mastermind behind the occupation of Crimea and the war in Eastern Ukraine was, and is Vladimir Putin.
In recent weeks Putin and Poroshenko have been holding closed consultations to somehow de-escalate the situation in the Donbas.
[Note: What is being discussed is very hush-hush. Some noted observers like Sonya Koshkina have already declared: "the authorities are making the same fateful mistake as Viktor Yanukovych's team. That mistake is the deficit of openness". E.g. the text of the Minsk declaration was only leaked after several days, and then by OSCE sources..Voting in parliament for new laws providing special status for Ukraine's two easternmost oblasts took place in a closed session...in highly dubious circumstances etc.]
Part of these Putin-Poroshenko negotiations resulted in the unexpected postponement of the implementation of the economic part of the Association Agreement. According to Portnikov, Yevtushenkov's arrest may also be linked to these negotiations, .
If Putin really wants to deprive the militants/terrorists in the Donbas freedom of manoeuvre, he must not only get them to withdraw, but must also cut off their sources of funding.
Yevtushenkov's detention may be a signal that from now on only Putin, and nobody else decides further operation of the Moscow-controlled mercenaries in Donbas. Hitherto this has not been the case. The separatist fighters will begin to understand they can only rely on the ruler in the Kremlin.
However Vitaliy Portnikov in Liga.net explains that the arrest may be linked to Putin and his war in Donbas.
Here is a summary of what he has to say:
Yevtushenkov had been building up a web of business and other interests in Ukraine over several years, and had been close to former president Viktor Yanukovych. It was Yevtushenkov who was making offers to the former president "that he could not refuse" in order he scuttle the Association Agreement so carefully constructed between the EU and Ukraine.
But most importantly, Yevtushenkov was the main oligarch standing behind Konsyantin Malofyeyev, about whom I have previously written.
Malofyeyev was one of the main organisers of the invasion and coup in Crimea - the "Orthodox oligarch" obsessed with the restoration the Russia's former empire. He generously financed the separatists/terrorists in the self-proclaimed Luhansk and Donetsk republics, and is allegedly the main sponsor of arms purchases and the paymaster for Russian volunteers/mercenaries currently operating on Ukrainian territory. It may also be that Yevtushenkov was the conduit through which Yanukovych provided operational funding to the separatists from the massive sums he had stolen from Ukraine's budget. Nevertheless, the overarching mastermind behind the occupation of Crimea and the war in Eastern Ukraine was, and is Vladimir Putin.
In recent weeks Putin and Poroshenko have been holding closed consultations to somehow de-escalate the situation in the Donbas.
[Note: What is being discussed is very hush-hush. Some noted observers like Sonya Koshkina have already declared: "the authorities are making the same fateful mistake as Viktor Yanukovych's team. That mistake is the deficit of openness". E.g. the text of the Minsk declaration was only leaked after several days, and then by OSCE sources..Voting in parliament for new laws providing special status for Ukraine's two easternmost oblasts took place in a closed session...in highly dubious circumstances etc.]
Part of these Putin-Poroshenko negotiations resulted in the unexpected postponement of the implementation of the economic part of the Association Agreement. According to Portnikov, Yevtushenkov's arrest may also be linked to these negotiations, .
If Putin really wants to deprive the militants/terrorists in the Donbas freedom of manoeuvre, he must not only get them to withdraw, but must also cut off their sources of funding.
Yevtushenkov's detention may be a signal that from now on only Putin, and nobody else decides further operation of the Moscow-controlled mercenaries in Donbas. Hitherto this has not been the case. The separatist fighters will begin to understand they can only rely on the ruler in the Kremlin.
Tuesday, September 16, 2014
What most Ukrainians feel in their hearts
Despite today's voting in the Verkhovna Rada granting self-rule and amnesty to Donbas separatists, most Ukrainians would strongly agree with VR deputy Inna Bohoslovka when she declares:
"I did not vote for the law on special status for certain regions of the Donbas.
I will never forgive those who killed, tortured and dares to further torment my fellow Ukrainian countrymen. I will fight them until the last of them will be sentenced or killed."
Bohoslovska was a Party of Regions deputy until end of November 2013..and is a friend of Ukraine's top oligarchs.
At the start of this year she accurately predicted the advent of the plague exported from Russia that has now enveloped eastern Ukraine.
The "special order of local governance in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts" is a grotesque joke...Does it cover the entire oblasts, or only those portions currently in the hands of separatists? Will towns liberated from separatists again be terrorised by those who have already tortured, kidnapped and murdered their citizens and looted their property?
Poroshenko has been forced to throw millions of Ukraine's citizens into the clutches of lawless cut-throats who have been given carte-blanche to do as they will.
This was a black day for the EU and a black day for Ukraine..Dark days await....
And for those in Donbas who may have supported the separatists? What kind of victory have the last few months fighting produced for them? What future awaits them? Who is going to fix the huge damage? Russia is not interested...As for Kyiv - the treasury is bare.
The Yanukovych years will be just a pleasant memory.
"I did not vote for the law on special status for certain regions of the Donbas.
I will never forgive those who killed, tortured and dares to further torment my fellow Ukrainian countrymen. I will fight them until the last of them will be sentenced or killed."
Bohoslovska was a Party of Regions deputy until end of November 2013..and is a friend of Ukraine's top oligarchs.
At the start of this year she accurately predicted the advent of the plague exported from Russia that has now enveloped eastern Ukraine.
The "special order of local governance in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts" is a grotesque joke...Does it cover the entire oblasts, or only those portions currently in the hands of separatists? Will towns liberated from separatists again be terrorised by those who have already tortured, kidnapped and murdered their citizens and looted their property?
Poroshenko has been forced to throw millions of Ukraine's citizens into the clutches of lawless cut-throats who have been given carte-blanche to do as they will.
This was a black day for the EU and a black day for Ukraine..Dark days await....
And for those in Donbas who may have supported the separatists? What kind of victory have the last few months fighting produced for them? What future awaits them? Who is going to fix the huge damage? Russia is not interested...As for Kyiv - the treasury is bare.
The Yanukovych years will be just a pleasant memory.
Monday, September 15, 2014
Get better soon, Ksenia
Russian Journalist Hospitalized After Violent Street Attack
Ksenia Batanova, a producer with Dozhd, Russia’s only independent television news channel, is recovering after unknown assailants fractured her skull. The channel has devoted significant resources to covering Russia’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict and struggled against government pressure.
Watch this brief and most engaging youtube clip of Ksenia talking to camera about herself...what a beautiful person...what a dreadful, cruel crime...
Ksenia Batanova, a producer with Dozhd, Russia’s only independent television news channel, is recovering after unknown assailants fractured her skull. The channel has devoted significant resources to covering Russia’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict and struggled against government pressure.
Watch this brief and most engaging youtube clip of Ksenia talking to camera about herself...what a beautiful person...what a dreadful, cruel crime...
Thursday, September 11, 2014
Can Donbas survive without Ukraine?
With the ceasefire and cessation of hostilities the situation in Eastern Ukraine has reached an impasse. The forces of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic and Lugansk People's Republic now occupy the two major regional cities and about a third of the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
With the respite in the fighting, residents can now begin reflect on where their future lies and what their prospects will be.
Unless there is more significant violence resulting in gains or losses of territory in the next few weeks, with the onset of winter, boundary lines are unlikely to change at least until well into the New Year.
The announcement by president Poroshenko today of withdrawal of the majority of Russian troops and equipment would indicate the heavy fighting is now less likely and current boundaries encompassing rebel-held territory will remain as they are, at least for months to come.
A vital portion of industry in this region is export-orientated. If companies are to survive they require unhindered access to ports and overseas markets. Similarly, new equipment for modernisation and development has to be imported, mainly from abroad. Investors need security and political stability.
The port of Mariupol, which remains in the hands of Kyiv forces, is vital to the maintenance of prosperity in the region. If the separatists and their Russian sponsors and armourers want to conquer the city they would most likely have to launch a bloody and destructive assault.
Two of the three biggest employers in Mariupol are the giant AzovStal and the Illich MetKombinat steelworks which account for about one third of Ukraine's steel production and are the sixth and seventh biggest companies in Ukraine. They produce a major chunk of the country's metallurgical exports. The third biggest employer, AzovMash, manufactures railway freight cars, mainly for export to CIS countries as well as other engineering products; their output has been hit very badly by the troubles.
Mariupol is Ukraine's second biggest gateway for exports, predominantly produce of Donbas.
Donbas and Luhansk oblasts may well be granted special status in the near future. But who will pay pensions, and salaries of teachers, doctors and civil servants in the cities and areas controlled by DNR and LDR separatist gunmen? Who will ensure business and trade can return to normal?
Residents will certainly have much to think about before any elections..
With the respite in the fighting, residents can now begin reflect on where their future lies and what their prospects will be.
Unless there is more significant violence resulting in gains or losses of territory in the next few weeks, with the onset of winter, boundary lines are unlikely to change at least until well into the New Year.
The announcement by president Poroshenko today of withdrawal of the majority of Russian troops and equipment would indicate the heavy fighting is now less likely and current boundaries encompassing rebel-held territory will remain as they are, at least for months to come.
A vital portion of industry in this region is export-orientated. If companies are to survive they require unhindered access to ports and overseas markets. Similarly, new equipment for modernisation and development has to be imported, mainly from abroad. Investors need security and political stability.
The port of Mariupol, which remains in the hands of Kyiv forces, is vital to the maintenance of prosperity in the region. If the separatists and their Russian sponsors and armourers want to conquer the city they would most likely have to launch a bloody and destructive assault.
Two of the three biggest employers in Mariupol are the giant AzovStal and the Illich MetKombinat steelworks which account for about one third of Ukraine's steel production and are the sixth and seventh biggest companies in Ukraine. They produce a major chunk of the country's metallurgical exports. The third biggest employer, AzovMash, manufactures railway freight cars, mainly for export to CIS countries as well as other engineering products; their output has been hit very badly by the troubles.
Mariupol is Ukraine's second biggest gateway for exports, predominantly produce of Donbas.
Donbas and Luhansk oblasts may well be granted special status in the near future. But who will pay pensions, and salaries of teachers, doctors and civil servants in the cities and areas controlled by DNR and LDR separatist gunmen? Who will ensure business and trade can return to normal?
Residents will certainly have much to think about before any elections..
Tuesday, September 09, 2014
Thoughts on Minsk protocol
Sergey Tolstov, writing in Delo.ua describes what may well await the east of Ukraine following signing of the Minsk protocol.
The protocol, most significantly, makes no mention of the presence of Russian forces on Ukrainian territory:
Below is a summary of the conclusion of his well-detailed article:
Elections at gunpoint and [formal] recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics [DPR &LPR]
Until now the DPR &LPR were inherently military forces which have not fulfilled out any administrative function on the territories under their control; they were, and still are, purely parasitic structures.
Under the new [proposed] conditions the leaders of these groups will receive partial political recognition as participants of the settlement process and as representatives of territories having a "special status".
Such recognition, and, especially, participation of the DPR & LPR leadership [and candidates supported by them] in any local elections in territories they control will provide them with political legalisation, enabling them to create their own administrative apparatus.
Moreover, the holding of such elections would open the possibility of direct managerial control by DPR & LDR of public utilities, trade, and transport and energy infrastructure in the territories controlled by them.
As for elections in the territories controlled by the DPR & LPR their leaders are hardly going to abandon the use of repressive measures against political opponents. All sorts of prohibitions and barriers to participation for candidates from Ukrainian political parties can be expected. [Surely an understatement by the writer.]
As to restoration of the economy and infrastructure of Donbas, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has stated that Russia will help the south-east of Ukraine, but Kyiv has to restore it. In other words, the Russian government wants Kyiv to fund areas controlled by the separatists.
It this is to be the Russians stance then Kyiv must insist implementation of the program of economic revival of Donbas and the provision of humanitarian assistance to territories controlled by DPR & LPR be dependent on the withdrawal of Russian troops. Otherwise Kyiv allocated funds should go only for the restoration of infrastructure in territories controlled by the central government.
In actual fact Tolstov has explained why the Minsk protocol is surely a 'dead duck'
The protocol, most significantly, makes no mention of the presence of Russian forces on Ukrainian territory:
Below is a summary of the conclusion of his well-detailed article:
Elections at gunpoint and [formal] recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics [DPR &LPR]
Until now the DPR &LPR were inherently military forces which have not fulfilled out any administrative function on the territories under their control; they were, and still are, purely parasitic structures.
Under the new [proposed] conditions the leaders of these groups will receive partial political recognition as participants of the settlement process and as representatives of territories having a "special status".
Such recognition, and, especially, participation of the DPR & LPR leadership [and candidates supported by them] in any local elections in territories they control will provide them with political legalisation, enabling them to create their own administrative apparatus.
Moreover, the holding of such elections would open the possibility of direct managerial control by DPR & LDR of public utilities, trade, and transport and energy infrastructure in the territories controlled by them.
As for elections in the territories controlled by the DPR & LPR their leaders are hardly going to abandon the use of repressive measures against political opponents. All sorts of prohibitions and barriers to participation for candidates from Ukrainian political parties can be expected. [Surely an understatement by the writer.]
As to restoration of the economy and infrastructure of Donbas, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has stated that Russia will help the south-east of Ukraine, but Kyiv has to restore it. In other words, the Russian government wants Kyiv to fund areas controlled by the separatists.
It this is to be the Russians stance then Kyiv must insist implementation of the program of economic revival of Donbas and the provision of humanitarian assistance to territories controlled by DPR & LPR be dependent on the withdrawal of Russian troops. Otherwise Kyiv allocated funds should go only for the restoration of infrastructure in territories controlled by the central government.
In actual fact Tolstov has explained why the Minsk protocol is surely a 'dead duck'
Sunday, September 07, 2014
Better for Ukraine to lose part of its territory than return Donbas on Putin's terms?
Serhiy Vysotsky, in a Liga.net article entitled: 'Does Ukraine have to return Donbas on Putin's terms?' says what perhaps many think, but are unwilling to say right now.
I've loosely translated his thoughts:
Better for Ukraine to lose part of its territory than return Donbas on the aggressor's terms.
According to Putin and Poroshenko the truce is generally being observed. [maybe at time of writing...LEvko]
The situation may now develop along two possible scenarios. If at some point the cease-fire is violated by the Russian army or their proxy separatist militants, the war will continue. Or, more likely, shooting will stop for a longer period until the Winter or early Spring, and the break in the fighting (along with an economic war and the turning off of gas) will be used by Russia to persuade the Ukrainian authorities to capitulate and to provoke a new widespread social revolt.
The aim of the Kremlin in Ukraine is not so much the occupation of the territory, but rather a creeping counter-revolution in response to the EuroMaidan. A strong, modern Ukraine is Putin's nightmare, because such a country would show there is a realistic, clear alternative to his regime. That is why Russian peace terms imposed on the Donbas do not include independence for a terrorist Novorossia. On the contrary, Russia wants Ukraine to remain united, but this unity has to be achieved and maintained on Putin's terms.
It is no secret that the Donetsk clan headed by Yanukovych introduced a gangster-type economy with criminal traditions amongst a Sovietized population, first in its own region, and then in the whole country.
Putin planned the carve-up of Ukraine on clear terms, with kickbacks for the garage manager [Yanukovych] on the sale of strategic enterprises, Ukrainian infrastructure and defence industry. Yanukovych almost did manage to sell Ukraine, but then the Maidan sprung up.
The political dominance of Donetsk, the corruption by them of the political classes, their total pressing of public resources and private businesses resulted in a situation where the entire country began to work for the bottomless pocket of the Donetsk clan.
According to Moscow's peace plan, the idea that the Donbas should remain part of Ukraine as a kind of autonomous territory, but with representation in Parliament with the right of veto on foreign policy decisions throughout the country while and at the same being financed from Kyiv, means Moscow wants to return to the status-quo. It intends to hang the Donbas criminal/political yoke back onto the neck of Ukraine.
What is the Kremlin actually offering Ukraine in its peace plan? Instead of the financing of an army and National Guard it proposes the reconstruction of a Donbas destroyed by Russia. But of course, the money will not be for funding the region's recovery, but rather for financing terrorists granted amnesty and legalised through local elections as a new power.
The fifth columnists of the Donets Basin, the fighters who tortured prisoners and killed soldiers and civil society activists, will be formed into a political force that will enter parliament on an anti-Ukrainian ticket. It is easy to imagine what an election will be like on territory controlled by militants - it will be just like the May "referendum".
And who is to supervise such local or parliamentary elections on the occupied part of Donbas - the Russian army? Or will troops and paramilitary forces of the Russian Federation be withdrawn? Acceptance of the Kremlin's peace plan means surrender.
Despite the complexity of the situation in Ukraine, the direct intervention of Putin's troops and the threat of a full-scale war, the human tragedy and the pain of loss, the fact that the Donbas is soaked with blood of our soldiers and volunteers, despite the tragedy of the few Donetsk and Lugansk patriots who heroically helped our troops, we must honestly ask ourselves: do we need imaginary territorial integrity in exchange for national interests and annihilation of the ideals of the Maidan?
This is a complex, sensitive issue. But it is necessary to give an honest answer. Are we ready to feed an army of invaders, who will not withdraw voluntarily from the Donbas? Are we ready to see in the streets of Kyiv, in parliament, people bragging about the numbers of murdered Ukrainian volunteer battalions? Are we ready, instead of strengthening the army and introducing radical reforms, to work on a huge fraudulent Donbas budget scheme intended to help Akhmetov, Yefremov and other collaborator clans rebuild?
The honest answer is as follows: The only way to return Donbas and Crimea is either win them back after radical reforms and the creation of an effective efficient army, or to return them quietly - through negotiations after the collapse of the Putin regime as a result of sanctions. Meanwhile these occupied territories will be our painful abscess, reminding us of the 23-years of civil irresponsibility and the time lost in building a functioning state. The loss of part of our territory as a result of aggression is not a sentence. In the current circumstances it is a last chance to create a successful and powerful country.
However, there is one big problem in this sort of speculation. Over the years, a majority of Ukrainians in the easternmost oblasts have considered themselves to be 'patriots of Ukraine'. Should these people be ditched?
I've loosely translated his thoughts:
Better for Ukraine to lose part of its territory than return Donbas on the aggressor's terms.
According to Putin and Poroshenko the truce is generally being observed. [maybe at time of writing...LEvko]
The situation may now develop along two possible scenarios. If at some point the cease-fire is violated by the Russian army or their proxy separatist militants, the war will continue. Or, more likely, shooting will stop for a longer period until the Winter or early Spring, and the break in the fighting (along with an economic war and the turning off of gas) will be used by Russia to persuade the Ukrainian authorities to capitulate and to provoke a new widespread social revolt.
The aim of the Kremlin in Ukraine is not so much the occupation of the territory, but rather a creeping counter-revolution in response to the EuroMaidan. A strong, modern Ukraine is Putin's nightmare, because such a country would show there is a realistic, clear alternative to his regime. That is why Russian peace terms imposed on the Donbas do not include independence for a terrorist Novorossia. On the contrary, Russia wants Ukraine to remain united, but this unity has to be achieved and maintained on Putin's terms.
It is no secret that the Donetsk clan headed by Yanukovych introduced a gangster-type economy with criminal traditions amongst a Sovietized population, first in its own region, and then in the whole country.
Putin planned the carve-up of Ukraine on clear terms, with kickbacks for the garage manager [Yanukovych] on the sale of strategic enterprises, Ukrainian infrastructure and defence industry. Yanukovych almost did manage to sell Ukraine, but then the Maidan sprung up.
The political dominance of Donetsk, the corruption by them of the political classes, their total pressing of public resources and private businesses resulted in a situation where the entire country began to work for the bottomless pocket of the Donetsk clan.
According to Moscow's peace plan, the idea that the Donbas should remain part of Ukraine as a kind of autonomous territory, but with representation in Parliament with the right of veto on foreign policy decisions throughout the country while and at the same being financed from Kyiv, means Moscow wants to return to the status-quo. It intends to hang the Donbas criminal/political yoke back onto the neck of Ukraine.
What is the Kremlin actually offering Ukraine in its peace plan? Instead of the financing of an army and National Guard it proposes the reconstruction of a Donbas destroyed by Russia. But of course, the money will not be for funding the region's recovery, but rather for financing terrorists granted amnesty and legalised through local elections as a new power.
The fifth columnists of the Donets Basin, the fighters who tortured prisoners and killed soldiers and civil society activists, will be formed into a political force that will enter parliament on an anti-Ukrainian ticket. It is easy to imagine what an election will be like on territory controlled by militants - it will be just like the May "referendum".
And who is to supervise such local or parliamentary elections on the occupied part of Donbas - the Russian army? Or will troops and paramilitary forces of the Russian Federation be withdrawn? Acceptance of the Kremlin's peace plan means surrender.
Despite the complexity of the situation in Ukraine, the direct intervention of Putin's troops and the threat of a full-scale war, the human tragedy and the pain of loss, the fact that the Donbas is soaked with blood of our soldiers and volunteers, despite the tragedy of the few Donetsk and Lugansk patriots who heroically helped our troops, we must honestly ask ourselves: do we need imaginary territorial integrity in exchange for national interests and annihilation of the ideals of the Maidan?
This is a complex, sensitive issue. But it is necessary to give an honest answer. Are we ready to feed an army of invaders, who will not withdraw voluntarily from the Donbas? Are we ready to see in the streets of Kyiv, in parliament, people bragging about the numbers of murdered Ukrainian volunteer battalions? Are we ready, instead of strengthening the army and introducing radical reforms, to work on a huge fraudulent Donbas budget scheme intended to help Akhmetov, Yefremov and other collaborator clans rebuild?
The honest answer is as follows: The only way to return Donbas and Crimea is either win them back after radical reforms and the creation of an effective efficient army, or to return them quietly - through negotiations after the collapse of the Putin regime as a result of sanctions. Meanwhile these occupied territories will be our painful abscess, reminding us of the 23-years of civil irresponsibility and the time lost in building a functioning state. The loss of part of our territory as a result of aggression is not a sentence. In the current circumstances it is a last chance to create a successful and powerful country.
However, there is one big problem in this sort of speculation. Over the years, a majority of Ukrainians in the easternmost oblasts have considered themselves to be 'patriots of Ukraine'. Should these people be ditched?
Sunday, August 31, 2014
Eurasian Economic Union crumbling part 2
In a previous blog I wrote Putin's Customs Union currently comprising Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, is crumbling.
On Friday, at a Russian youth camp Putin declared: "Russians and Ukrainians are 'practically one people". [Implying, I suppose, that invading Ukraine and trampling over its sovereign rights is not really invading a foreign country at all.]
If there were any truth in this 'practically one people' remark, it could arguably apply to an even greater extent to Russians and Belarusians, so Putin's loose talk will certainly will cause great apprehension and anger in Minsk.
Putin's declaration that same day the Kazakhstan 'was never a state', has already elicited a reaction from that country's president Nursultan Nazarbayev. He has broadly hinted Kazakhstan may even withdraw from the Eurasian Union
"If the rules laid down in the agreement are not carried out, Kazakhstan has the right to give up the Eurasian Economic Union. I have said it before and I say it again," he said.
According to him, Kazakhstan will not be a part of any organization that poses a threat to its independence.
"Our independence is our most precious treasure for which our grandfathers fought," said the president of Kazakhstan. "Firstly, we will never surrender our independence and, secondly, we will do everything to protect it," - said Nazarbayev.
Taras Berezovets in 'Novoye Vremya' explains why Kazakhstan may be being lined up for same treatment as Eastern Ukraine in Putin's strategy to rearrange Russia's borders. About one quarter of Kazakhstan's population is Russian - they live predominantly in regions adjacent Russia. These regions were bolted on in 1936 when Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic was formed from the Kazakh Autonomous Socialist Soviet Republic that had existed from 1925 until 1936. [Similaries with Crimea?]
More on Putin's crass remarks and their major significance here
On Friday, at a Russian youth camp Putin declared: "Russians and Ukrainians are 'practically one people". [Implying, I suppose, that invading Ukraine and trampling over its sovereign rights is not really invading a foreign country at all.]
If there were any truth in this 'practically one people' remark, it could arguably apply to an even greater extent to Russians and Belarusians, so Putin's loose talk will certainly will cause great apprehension and anger in Minsk.
Putin's declaration that same day the Kazakhstan 'was never a state', has already elicited a reaction from that country's president Nursultan Nazarbayev. He has broadly hinted Kazakhstan may even withdraw from the Eurasian Union
"If the rules laid down in the agreement are not carried out, Kazakhstan has the right to give up the Eurasian Economic Union. I have said it before and I say it again," he said.
According to him, Kazakhstan will not be a part of any organization that poses a threat to its independence.
"Our independence is our most precious treasure for which our grandfathers fought," said the president of Kazakhstan. "Firstly, we will never surrender our independence and, secondly, we will do everything to protect it," - said Nazarbayev.
Taras Berezovets in 'Novoye Vremya' explains why Kazakhstan may be being lined up for same treatment as Eastern Ukraine in Putin's strategy to rearrange Russia's borders. About one quarter of Kazakhstan's population is Russian - they live predominantly in regions adjacent Russia. These regions were bolted on in 1936 when Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic was formed from the Kazakh Autonomous Socialist Soviet Republic that had existed from 1925 until 1936. [Similaries with Crimea?]
More on Putin's crass remarks and their major significance here
Tuesday, August 26, 2014
Will Minsk 2014 be Munich 1938?
Former Putin adviser and now critic Andrei Illarionov, in his blog, quoting many sources, explains what, in his opinion, Putin and Merkel are proposing to Poroshenko and Ukraine in order to resolve the current war between these two countries.
The joint position of Putin and Merkel probably looks something like this:
- Bilateral unconditional cease-fire, which automatically means the legalisation of the separatists and their transformation into a legitimate party in endless negotiations.
- Determination of the internal political system of Ukraine not by Ukrainians, but by Russia and Germany, which will result in the eastern regions of Ukraine being granted special status, i.e. the creation of a "Ukrainian Transnistria" - Putin's beloved "Novorossiya."
- Denial of Ukraine not only from joining NATO, but also denial of any rapprochement with NATO, which would leave her under constant threat of attacks from its aggressive neighbour.
- Denial of Ukraine joining the European Union.
- Solution of gas issues to the satisfaction of Gazprom and Germany.
- For Ukraine's agreement on these points, "Novorossiya" in the Donbas will receive 500 million. Euros from the European Union (Germany) .
Ilaryonov compares the proposed deal to the 1938 Munich Agreement when Hitler was appeased and Czechoslovakia sold down the river. Poroshenko in Minsk will be in a similar position to Czech president of the day, Edvard Benes...
The joint position of Putin and Merkel probably looks something like this:
- Bilateral unconditional cease-fire, which automatically means the legalisation of the separatists and their transformation into a legitimate party in endless negotiations.
- Determination of the internal political system of Ukraine not by Ukrainians, but by Russia and Germany, which will result in the eastern regions of Ukraine being granted special status, i.e. the creation of a "Ukrainian Transnistria" - Putin's beloved "Novorossiya."
- Denial of Ukraine not only from joining NATO, but also denial of any rapprochement with NATO, which would leave her under constant threat of attacks from its aggressive neighbour.
- Denial of Ukraine joining the European Union.
- Solution of gas issues to the satisfaction of Gazprom and Germany.
- For Ukraine's agreement on these points, "Novorossiya" in the Donbas will receive 500 million. Euros from the European Union (Germany) .
Ilaryonov compares the proposed deal to the 1938 Munich Agreement when Hitler was appeased and Czechoslovakia sold down the river. Poroshenko in Minsk will be in a similar position to Czech president of the day, Edvard Benes...
Saturday, August 23, 2014
Putin's Customs Union is crumbling
President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine's Petro Poroshenko are attending a summit together with top European Union officials in Belarus's capital of Minsk on 26th August. Belarussian leader Alexander Lukashenko and Kazkahstan's Nursultan Nazarbayev, whose countries belong to the Russia-led Customs Union, will also be present.
Vitaliy Portnikov makes the following observations in his article "Meeting in Minsk - an important stage toward divorce".
No major break-throughs can be expected. Even if Putin does give any undertakings, he will most likely break them. [There is a 'shed-load' of evidence that Russian regular armed forces have been active in eastern Ukraine. E.g. captured prisoners, captured equipment, scattered iron rations, military equipment packaging, intercepted sig-int.. video evidence, etc. etc. Despite this Russian spokesmen continue to deny any involvement of their troops. So why should Putin be trusted in the future?]
Portnikov says the summit is an opportunity for Lukashenko to at least partially rehabilitate himself with Europeans.
Lukashenko and Nazarbayev can also use next week's meeting to distance themselves a bit from Putin because the current Russia/Ukraine crisis is harming their countries' interests. They are fearful of an aggressive Putin and will try to delicately persuade him to come to his senses. They feel that by his unilateral declaration of sanctions against EU countries, Putin has 'dissed' Customs Union members Belarus and Kazakhstan.
Vitaliy Portnikov makes the following observations in his article "Meeting in Minsk - an important stage toward divorce".
No major break-throughs can be expected. Even if Putin does give any undertakings, he will most likely break them. [There is a 'shed-load' of evidence that Russian regular armed forces have been active in eastern Ukraine. E.g. captured prisoners, captured equipment, scattered iron rations, military equipment packaging, intercepted sig-int.. video evidence, etc. etc. Despite this Russian spokesmen continue to deny any involvement of their troops. So why should Putin be trusted in the future?]
Portnikov says the summit is an opportunity for Lukashenko to at least partially rehabilitate himself with Europeans.
Lukashenko and Nazarbayev can also use next week's meeting to distance themselves a bit from Putin because the current Russia/Ukraine crisis is harming their countries' interests. They are fearful of an aggressive Putin and will try to delicately persuade him to come to his senses. They feel that by his unilateral declaration of sanctions against EU countries, Putin has 'dissed' Customs Union members Belarus and Kazakhstan.
Interesting podcast on what awaits Russia
Listen to this most engaging 'rferl' 50 minute podcast entitled:
'Russia's Elusive New Normal',
Peter Pomerantsev and Ben Judah speculate on what lies in store for Putin and Russia following Putin's policy of 'perpetual mobilisation and agitation' - combining both 'patriotic cocaine' and fear - of which the current Russia/Ukraine crisis forms a central plank.
'Russia's Elusive New Normal',
Peter Pomerantsev and Ben Judah speculate on what lies in store for Putin and Russia following Putin's policy of 'perpetual mobilisation and agitation' - combining both 'patriotic cocaine' and fear - of which the current Russia/Ukraine crisis forms a central plank.
Wednesday, August 20, 2014
A wicked imported conflict [updated]
Check out this article from Spiegel [in English] about the surreal Russian - Ukrainian war:
"Could it be that the much discussed conflict between the Russians, the West and the eastern Ukrainians doesn't really exist?
The longer I am in this city [of Donetsk], the more I believe that much of what is said about the war in eastern Ukraine isn't true. Others have imported the conflict."
p.s. An absolute must-read: Andrey Kurkov's just-published 'Ukraine Diaries'...
Also "Strategic snapshots: The Ukraine Crisis and the International System"
Short 10 minute video from IISS here
"Could it be that the much discussed conflict between the Russians, the West and the eastern Ukrainians doesn't really exist?
The longer I am in this city [of Donetsk], the more I believe that much of what is said about the war in eastern Ukraine isn't true. Others have imported the conflict."
p.s. An absolute must-read: Andrey Kurkov's just-published 'Ukraine Diaries'...
"an invaluable guide to the present crisis"
Short 10 minute video from IISS here
Sunday, August 10, 2014
Collective madness against Ukraine [update 2]
If anyone has doubts as to Putin's intent to punish and subjugate Ukraine then they should check out this video of a recent Biker show held in Sevastopol:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPnb97ybtiU
The crudest anti-Ukrainian propaganda concoction imaginable.. an Orwellian nightmare come true...on a par with Hitler's Germany..
What harm have Ukrainians done to Russians to deserve this?
p.s. the MC of the show, blurting the anti-Ukraine rhetoric, is Alexander Zaldostanov (a.k.a 'The Surgeon)', head of the Night Wolves. He allegedly has an enduring friendship with Putin himself, no less....
Update: This hate-show about #Ukraine was broadcast live on #Russia-2 TV channel. [source]
Here's a much shorter, 20-minute version..
Update 2: A great analysis of this diabolical show, and message from Putin, from Buzzfeed here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPnb97ybtiU
The crudest anti-Ukrainian propaganda concoction imaginable.. an Orwellian nightmare come true...on a par with Hitler's Germany..
What harm have Ukrainians done to Russians to deserve this?
p.s. the MC of the show, blurting the anti-Ukraine rhetoric, is Alexander Zaldostanov (a.k.a 'The Surgeon)', head of the Night Wolves. He allegedly has an enduring friendship with Putin himself, no less....
Update: This hate-show about #Ukraine was broadcast live on #Russia-2 TV channel. [source]
Here's a much shorter, 20-minute version..
Update 2: A great analysis of this diabolical show, and message from Putin, from Buzzfeed here
Saturday, August 09, 2014
Seeds of Merkel-led de-escalation plan?
The President drew attention to the efforts of the Ukrainian government to establish humanitarian assistance in the cities affected by the actions of terrorists. In particular, about sending to Lugansk professionals to repair electrical substations and restore water and food supply.
Petro Poroshenko informed that after the talks with President of the International Committee of the Red Cross Peter Maurer and other international partners, the possibility of sending a humanitarian mission to Lugansk is considered: "We are ready to receive humanitarian assistance, but it will be an international mission, without military escort, which goes only through border crossing points controlled by Ukrainian border guards and accompanied by Ukrainian military for the security of the mission", stressed the President.
Angela Merkel said that Germany, as well as its allies, holds a clear position that any humanitarian mission should be sent only in accordance with the international law, namely only through the channels of the UN or the Red Cross, and only in consultation with the Ukrainian side. "Our position is clear - any invasion, even if it is called humanitarian, is an invasion, and it is a red line that no state may cross", said the Chancellor of Germany.
Angela Merkel and Petro Poroshenko discussed the possibility of participation of Germany in international humanitarian mission. They also coordinated the next steps for de-escalation of the situation in the counter-terrorist operation.
Thursday, August 07, 2014
Will Russia invade Ukraine?
If you have a spare half hour or so, listen to this excellent, frequently fascinating podcast from 'The Interpreter'
"This week on The Interpreter podcast Boston College Professor Matt Sienkiewicz and The Interpreter’s managing editor James Miller are joined by The Interpreter’s editor-in-chief Michael Weiss to discuss the latest news from Ukraine.
The key questions on everyone’s mind — will Russia invade Ukraine? What is Russia’s end game here? Why is Putin doing what Putin is doing? And what does this all have to do with the shooting down of MH17?"
One of the speakers explains: To understand Russia...watch 'The Godfather' or series like 'The Sopranos'...
"This week on The Interpreter podcast Boston College Professor Matt Sienkiewicz and The Interpreter’s managing editor James Miller are joined by The Interpreter’s editor-in-chief Michael Weiss to discuss the latest news from Ukraine.
The key questions on everyone’s mind — will Russia invade Ukraine? What is Russia’s end game here? Why is Putin doing what Putin is doing? And what does this all have to do with the shooting down of MH17?"
One of the speakers explains: To understand Russia...watch 'The Godfather' or series like 'The Sopranos'...
Wednesday, July 30, 2014
Yatsenyuk still favourite for PM
Interesting straw poll in big-selling 'Segodnya' website.
Who would you like to see in the prime minister's chair?
56% respondents proposed Yatsenyuk, 37% 'another candidate', and 7% said Groysman..
Over 18 thousand votes so far...
Who would you like to see in the prime minister's chair?
56% respondents proposed Yatsenyuk, 37% 'another candidate', and 7% said Groysman..
Over 18 thousand votes so far...
Tuesday, July 29, 2014
Klimkin explains Ukraine's position in Washington
Watch a rather dozy Foreign Minister of Ukraine speaking at today's Atlantic Council event
"Wartime Diplomacy, A Discussion with the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Pavlo Klimkin":
[Starts about 18 minutes in]
Klimkin claimed three years ago: "Tymoshenko's trial is not a witch-hunt"...Men such as him and his colleagues at Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, by strictly adhering to this view, by working to crush Yanukovych's greatest political opponent, caused the signing of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement to be delayed for many months...a calamity that has cost Ukraine very, very dear...
"When young democracy criminalizes political disputes, it won't long stay a democracy. See Russia, Yanik's Ukraine..."
p.s. Also this fascinating brief CNN interview with brilliant young journalist, Ben Judah about Putin's weird, saddo lifestyle..Can such an isololated man make rational decisions?
"Wartime Diplomacy, A Discussion with the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Pavlo Klimkin":
[Starts about 18 minutes in]
Klimkin claimed three years ago: "Tymoshenko's trial is not a witch-hunt"...Men such as him and his colleagues at Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, by strictly adhering to this view, by working to crush Yanukovych's greatest political opponent, caused the signing of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement to be delayed for many months...a calamity that has cost Ukraine very, very dear...
"When young democracy criminalizes political disputes, it won't long stay a democracy. See Russia, Yanik's Ukraine..."
p.s. Also this fascinating brief CNN interview with brilliant young journalist, Ben Judah about Putin's weird, saddo lifestyle..Can such an isololated man make rational decisions?
Saturday, July 26, 2014
Beyond reasonable doubt
AP now provide the most detailed account to date of the shooting down of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17, in this report.
Their journalists happened to be on the spot last week when it occurred.
It is almost certain the highly trained crew that operated the Buk M-1 missile system used in the fatal attack were from Russia. Their monumental error was the result of the crew having to depend on moronic separatists who identified their target.
The Buk crew and their separatist collaborators had been seen by AP journalists wearing distinctly differing camo outfits.
Your humble blogger lives on top of a hill. On summer evenings he likes to watch the con trails of high-flying aircraft while sitting in the garden. Sometimes, in order to identify the aircraft and their destination, together with family members we get this readily available data from www.flightradar24.com website in a matter of seconds.
We tracked Yanukovych's air liner as it fled from Kyiv in February...[he was not on board]
A 10-year old armed with a simple compass can can use it, but the morons in Snizhne who killed 300 innocents were not capable...
Some pompous commentators who should know better claim: "The downing of flight MH17 was clearly an accident. " ..shame on them.
p.s. Is the the delay by AP in posting of this story due them submitting all their information to appropriate aviation investigative bodies, and agreeing to 'sit tight for one week' before publishing?
Their journalists happened to be on the spot last week when it occurred.
It is almost certain the highly trained crew that operated the Buk M-1 missile system used in the fatal attack were from Russia. Their monumental error was the result of the crew having to depend on moronic separatists who identified their target.
The Buk crew and their separatist collaborators had been seen by AP journalists wearing distinctly differing camo outfits.
Your humble blogger lives on top of a hill. On summer evenings he likes to watch the con trails of high-flying aircraft while sitting in the garden. Sometimes, in order to identify the aircraft and their destination, together with family members we get this readily available data from www.flightradar24.com website in a matter of seconds.
We tracked Yanukovych's air liner as it fled from Kyiv in February...[he was not on board]
A 10-year old armed with a simple compass can can use it, but the morons in Snizhne who killed 300 innocents were not capable...
Some pompous commentators who should know better claim: "The downing of flight MH17 was clearly an accident. " ..shame on them.
p.s. Is the the delay by AP in posting of this story due them submitting all their information to appropriate aviation investigative bodies, and agreeing to 'sit tight for one week' before publishing?
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