Sunday, June 15, 2008

Looking into the crystal ball

Some speculation from a recent 'Segodnya' article:

Opposition reflecting over dismissing Tymoshenko

'Regionaly' are convincing NUNS and BYuT deputies to vote against Tymoshenko

The disintegration of the ruling coalition caused by last week's departure of 2 deputies, reducing it to a maximum of 225 deputies in a 450 seat house, has given rise to speculation on how parliament will now function and what the future holds for the current KabMin.

Party of Regions deputy Mykola Azarov recently claimed in a TV interview that there is now a sufficient number of deputies willing to support a non-confidence vote against the current KabMin, forcing it into resignation.

The ruling coalition has already called this statement a bluff, but 'Segodnya's' sources claim that Party of Regions is now preparing a two-pronged attack on the government.

Firstly they will be turning to the Constitutional Court to make a ruling on the legitimacy of the ruling coalition, which can now muster less than half of deputies in parliament.

Secondly they are conducting consultations with those NUNS and BYuT deputies who are dissatisfied with Tymoshenko's premiership, in the hope they can be persuaded to participate in a no-confidence vote against the government.

Negotiations are also taking place with the 'Litvinites' and Communists even though the Communists do not officially support the idea of Tymoshenko's resignation. They do not want to play into the hands of Baloha and Yushchenko; furthermore the sponsors of the Communist party currently have reasonably good relations with Tymoshenko.

'Segodnya's' sources consider that after Tymoshenko's resignation, she would remain acting premier but would will lose much influence in parliament, accelerating the formation of a broad NUNS-PoR coalition. And if the broad coalition is not successfully created, early elections could be declared after two months if a new government is not formed by then.

The 'Regionals' current activity in this matter is being spurred by paralysis amongst their allies in the president's secretariat. "Bank Street [the president's secretariat] seem to be in a blind alley right now," says a 'Segodnya' source close to the President. - "Formation of the 'Shirka' [broad coalition] is not working out - the "nasheukraintsi" can't all be persuaded, and they're afraid to make Yanukovych PM again. They're also frightened of early elections, since not they don't have anyone else to go to with them."

In such situation, in order to overcome the impasse and nudge the President into action, "Regionaly" are preparing to force the KabMin into resignation, and then see what happens. Moreover early elections could be advantageous for PoR - the party's ratings are growing, while those of the 'oranges' are falling.

But BYuT do hold a couple of trump cards in their hand. As mentioned, they are becoming more friendly not only with the Communists, but also with Litvin's bloc. There is talk in the lobbies of active negotiations between BYuT people and entry of the 'Litvinites' into the democratic coalition. But their result is far from clear.

1 comment:

elmer said...

The Ukrainian "political elite," feeding at the government trough, continue their cluster pie fight - to the detriment of Ukraine and Ukrainians.

Here's a bit of history I found in a very recent article in Bloomberg:
Polish Lessons

European history also offers painful lessons regarding veto powers. Starting in the 16th century, the so-called liberum veto gave each member of the Polish nobility the right to dissolve parliament and nullify legislation. The result was political gridlock. Poland ceased to exist after being partitioned by its neighbors Russia, Prussia and Austria in the late 18th century.


Yushchenko says that he wants an independent Ukraine. How does he expect to maintain an independent Ukraine -

1) when his only goal is to torpedo Tymoshenko, and government consists of a big pissing contest between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko, with the Party of Regions hoping to come in and take over the spoils?

2) when the "political elite" has made beggars out of Ukraine, with people who are willing to sell their votes, and their futures and the futures of their kids, for a few measly dollars, as we just saw in the Kyiv mayoral elections?

Here's a start -


Here's another start -


Here's another start -


Which Lutsenko is attempting to do. It looks like Baloha took over 60 charter flights - but noone knows who paid for those, and Baloha's government salary, as chief of the president's secretariat, is nominally only 17,000 hryvnia (about $5,000).