Saturday, June 21, 2008

Tymoshenko's day of judgement imminent?

Some speculation from 'Segodnya':

Tymoshenko's 'day of judgement' delayed for two weeks - Lytvynites are now ready to support motion to dismiss the government, Communists would help, but Yushchenko's position is not clear.

Parliament took a time-out on Friday for a couple of weeks - its next session is designated to take place on July 7th. By that time the opposition hopes to be thoroughly prepared for the main battle - to overthrow Tymoshenko's government.

The 'Regionaly' have already registered a resolution, for which they collected 154 deputies' signatures on Friday afternoon, demanding a [progress] report from the government. "Now, according to the law, committees should prepare questions for the government in the next 7 days, and during the next 10 days the government must report back," explained Serhiy Lyovochkin, one of PoR's leaders. According to him, once the report is produced (which could be as early as July 7th, when the next pleniary session of parliament takes place) his colleagues intend to dismiss Tymoshenko's KabMin for "incompetence, non professionalism and destruction of the Ukrainian economy".

Earlier today 'Segodnya' reported that deputies from the Lytvyn bloc as well as those from [Baloha's] "United Centre" and also, possibly, the Communists, could support them.
On Friday a congress of the People's Party (led by Volodymyr Lytvyn) decided it would be impossible for Lytyvyn's bloc to join existing coalitions. It would only be possible for them to participate in the formation of new coalitions. The hopes of BYuT to persuade the Lytvynites to joined them in a "democratic coalition" has come to nought, and the participation Lytyvn's bloc in any possible new coalition is now open.

BYuT, however, are sure that no resignation of government will take place, at least during the summer. An encouraging rumor is spreading among the bloc's deputies, that the President will not give his people 'the nod' to support a no-confidence vote against government.

"The President has simply realized, that after the resignation of Yulka T. and the formation of a broad coalition between PoR and NUNS, they will have to submit the candidature of Yanukovych for the post of premier. But on the threshold of presidential elections this would not be desirable. Therefore Yushchenko has decided to stall the process of the resignation of government and of the disintegration of the ruling coalition," assured a high ranking BYuT official. The day before, sources in the President's secretariat indicated to 'Segodnya' that at least the Baloha wing of NUNS would vote for the dismissal of the government.

But if 'Regionaly' can secure the support of the Communists and Lytvynites, then it will be possible for them to succeed without the approval of the Pres's secretariat. All that would be required would be to find 2 or 3 people in NUNS or in BYuT, ready to vote for Tymoshenko's resignation.

According to information received by 'Segodnya', PoR's relations with VR speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk, have become difficult because he does not want to make any declaration on the end of the ruling coalition. "Therefore our leadership has 2 points of view about what to do with Arseniy - some propose to remove his in the near future, while others, on the contrary, want to give a signal, that in the case of reformation of the coalition he would remain speaker," reported a source in PoR.

LEvko considers that Lytyvn, as a unifying, 'technical', non aligned politician, could do rather well in any Autumn elections. Voters are becoming disillusioned with the current main players.

p.s. apologies for not posting much recently - have been busy on other matters.


Anonymous said...

I agree get rid of both Tym and Yanuk and somehow bring in a "tecnical" Prime Minister who will do the work without running for President at the same time and while representing only half the country.

UkrToday said...

Thanks, your analysis is interesting, as always.

What you have to take into considertaion is that whilst it may, in theory, be possible to pass a vote of no-confidence in the governmnet the formation of a new governing coalition is not so easy. There are only three factions who can form a coalition. Party of Regions, Our Ukraine-People's Self Defence and Bloc Yulia Tymoshchenko. The other two parties (Communists and Lytvyn) can only provide a supportive role.

I doubt that Our Ukraine could unite and form a coalition with Party of Region.

A passing of no-confidence would result in another constitutional which would not serve Ukraine well.

The Pesident can not dismiss the parliament until November,and even then fresh parliamentray elections would not resolve the ongoing political conflict and power struggle between the Office of the President and the People's elected

Party of Regions would be better biding its time and continue negoiations.

Ukraine had a stable parliament in 2007 prior to Yushchenko's unconstitutional dissmissal.

The best solution would be for the parliament to initiate constitutional reform and adopt a full parliamentary system in line with other European States. And then proceed with fresh Presidential and Parliamentary elections under the new model.

The passing of a vote of no confidence may faciliate such a change but it could also play into the hands of the president as the president falsely shifts blame for the ongoing crisis on the Parliament and denies any responsibility for his own actions

It is also worth noting that the current government remains in office pending the appointment of a new government. (You must not make the mistake, that others commentators have, that the Parliament and the government are one and the same - they are not)

The sooner the powers that be can come to a common position on constitutional refrom the sooner Ukraine can begin to rebuild a democratic state, one that has been seriously weekend by an ineffective,undemocratic and destructive president.

elmer said...

Whoa, hang on just a second there.

I'm sure you will tell me if you disagree with me, but Tymoshenko is the only one who publicly is not working for Akhmetov and the oligarchs.

That is something which the Party of Regions calls "populism," because they are just a bunch of sovoks who don't know a thing about democracy, and are used to a few thugs in a politburo somewhere running everything totalitarian style, supported by some type of mafia or other.

Yanuk and the Party of Regions don't represent even half the country - they are polling well below 30 percent.

Their only mission - how can the Party of Regions make life even more comfortable and richer for Akhmetov?

And Yushchenko seems to have that as his only goal as well.

A country with only a few wealthy oligarchs and a population of beggars who have no rights will not last.

Yushchenko decided to get into a pissing contest with Tymoshenko, relying on a punk like Baloha.

I believe that Yushchenko is going to regret that.

Anonymous said...

If fresh elections a held you can expect that the Socialist Party, Lytvyn, The communists and Party of Region Yulia Tymoshenko will be reflected. It is unknown what the fall out of fresh elections on Our Ukraine would be. they could very much fall below the 3% threshold and it would be expected that the People's self Defence Party will split off from the alliance and might survive the count.

We would be back to square one with the possible renegotiation of the 2007 alliance. It make you wonder why they had early elections in the first place and why Yushchenko felt it so necessary to breach Ukraine's constitution and interfere with the CCU in order to destabilise Ukraine's parliamentary democracy.

Once the factions declare their position and Our Ukraine does an about face, betrayal again, we can expect a move to have the president impeached as the blame game continues.

Anonymous said...

I agree get rid of Yushenko and brfing a "technical" cerimonial President who will do the work without trying to undermine the paralaimnet and abuse power. A Presidcnet who understands the value of democracy and rukle of law. A President who is free from party politics. A president who works for the good of their country instead of represneting 8% of the electorate.

Anonymous said...

I agree

Get rid of Yushchenko and bring in a "technical" ceremonial President who will do the work without trying to undermine the parliament and continuing abuse of power.

A President who understands the value of democracy and rule of law.

A President who is free from party politics.

A President who works for the good of their country instead of representing 8% of the electorate.

Creat a Paralaimnetary democracy represneting the people of Ukraine in line with other European States

Ukraine is after all a European Country and it should adopt European systems of governance