Saturday, July 12, 2008

Out for summer

So the dust covers have been placed over the chairs in Ukraine's parliament for the summer recess. Sittings will resume on 2nd of September. Yulia Tymoshenko's cabinet easily survived a no confidence vote today because Communist party and Lytvyn bloc deputies reneged on their promises to support an attempt by 'Regionaly' to bring down her government.

BYuT deputies had been alerted earlier in the week to the possibility of such a vote being proposed by a rare sighting of PoR deputy Rinat Akhmetov in the vicinity of the VR. Many of his party colleagues had already departed for their summer holidays to tropical islands but had been rounded up, in some cases by charter aircraft, for the vote. They were not best pleased.

But politiking will go on. The 'Yedynyi Tsentr' project is being wheeled out at a big meeting tomorrow - will it fizzle out on the launch pad?


UkraineToday said...

I am not sure it is fair to say that Lytvyn and the CPU reneged on their promise to support Party of Regions "Vote of no confidence" in the government. Bothy parties have expressed their reservations about the effectiveness of the current government BUT in all fairness their decision to refrain from supporting the No confidence motion was the correct decision.

A vote of no confidence at this stage would have only exacerbated Ukraine's political crisis. Under the terms of Ukraine Constitution and its "Imperative mandate" provisions only Factions can form a governing coalition.

There was grave concern that a new governing coalition could not have been formed. A new coalition can only be established if either Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko or Our Ukraine-Peoples Self Defence Party resolve to enter into coalition with Party or Regions. The Communist party and Lytyn are limited in the role they can play in the formation of a new coalition.

The odds are that had the Motion of no confidence succeeded Ukraine would have once again been in constitutional Limbo... Something it can ill afford and there would have been no resolve in sight...

The only person to benefit from the collapse of the governing coalition would be Viktor Yushchenko who continues to undermine Ukraine's Parliament to the detriment of Ukraine's economic and democratic development.

The summer break and postponement until the commencement of the Autumn Session in September only prolongs Ukraine's political uncertainty.

Party of Regions can force fresh elections at any time of its choosing if, come September it opts to withdraw from the political process and resign their mandate. Such actions would leave Yushchenko no other alternative but to dismiss the parliament and to call fresh elections. Again this option is unlikely to produce and real resolve to the problems and political reality in Ukraine.

Ukraine's politcial situation has become more unstable then it was one year ago. What we are seeing now is the unpalatable fruits of Yushcneko's power struggle and the division and distrust that it has created.

The only way forward now is for Ukraine to implement constitutional reform and the adoption of a full parliamentary system which would put and end to the divisions and power struggle between the office of the president and the peoples democratically elected parliament.

Fresh parliamentary and presidential elections should immediately follow any constitutional reform.

The prospects facing Ukraine in the near future are not bright and the ongoing political divisions and power struggles will continue to have a negative impact on Ukraine;s already high inflation rate.

The longer this situation is allowed to continue unabated the worst it will get. Ukraine sadly is facing the possibility of a Political meltdown and there is no solution or safeguard in sight.

The worst case scenario is that Yushchenko will try and install a Presidential dictatorship and restore by undemocratic means Presidential authority further undermining political stability in Ukraine and the region.

The main obstacle facing Yulia Tymoshenko is that she may well have ran out of time. Her promise and state commitment to reform earlier on this year has hit a brick wall and the removal of statutory limitations on the Presidents ability to dismiss the parliament is about to expire.

Yushchenko will be in a position to prevent the parliament from initiating any meaningful reforms as he did back in 2007 when he unconstitutional dismissed the parliament in order to prevent the parliament from gaining support for further constitutional reform that wouldhave rightly removed power from the office of the President.

LEvko said...

Thank you 'Ukraine Today' for your most illuminating comment.