Monday, January 12, 2009

Der Spiegel on gas

'Der Spiegel' today provides an European perspective, with good analysis, on the Russian-Ukrainian gas crisis in an [English language] article: "Europe Fails to Wean Itself off Russian Gas"

They claim a new Russia-Ukraine gas deal fell through over a measly $350 million, but it looks as if gas will start crossing the Russian Ukrainian border again tomorrow morning.

PM Tymoshenko is adamant 'Naftohaz Ukrainy' will not use its own scarce reserves for 'technological' gas required to pump gas westward to gas-starved Europe, particularly as no price has yet been determined for any future deliveries of gas to Ukraine from Russia.

Your blogger considers that as a result, Ukraine will use Europe-bound gas to power the gas transit turbines along its pipelines. Within a few days, shortfalls in deliveries will be experienced in European countries and the entire problem will flare up again.

Ukraine needs about 6.5 Bcu.m. annually of this 'technological gas' to deliver Russian gas to European customers. In previous years this has been paid for on a "pay-as-you-go" basis.

I guess if the Europeans really want their gas then they will have to pay for its transportation through Ukraine while the dispute continues.

More Air Miles for the folks at Gazprom and Naftohaz in the weeks to come then..

p.s EDM has some analysis on Putin's handling of the crisis too.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Europe will sue both Russia and Ukraine, Russian in turn will sue Ukraine

Yushchenko has the constitutional power to intervene and will no doubt soon use this power as a pretense to declare a state of emergency and arrest control over the government with the backing of the EU and NATO member states.

YULIA MUST NOT ALLOW UKRAINE TO FALL INTO THIS TRAP.

SHE MUST ACT TO RESTORE GAS SUPPLIES TO EUROPEAN TRADING PARTNERS WITHOUT DELAY

Федоренко said...

During the first four months we will pay $360 for gas. And that is exactly twice as high, than paid until now. And Timoshenko’s «about» means a kind of an average annual price. Such a convinient gap : nobody knows its size, so no one will notice, someone will grab a piece of pie from there.

Interestingly, that Timoshenko enmeshed a little in Putin patterns. «A price which will be firm throughout the year, will make $228,8 for thousand cubic meters», - she declared in the morning. And later she told about a «quater year» pattern.
http://ua-ru-news.blogspot.com/2009/01/new-price-on-russian-gas.html