Saturday, November 17, 2012

Quiet revolution, stage one

I liked this follow-up analysis on last month's parliamentary elections:

"....this election was heavily ruled by the protest sentiments, although they had remained unnoticed by sociologists up until election day. Therefore we believe we have witnessed a quiet revolution. A sort of a latent Maydan * [Maydan (Ukrainian for square) is deemed a symbol of the Orange revolution]. It might not have fully evolved into a revolution yet but it is its first stage because, as we see it, the first stage of the Orange revolution happened when the opposition won the 2002 election. Even though back then President Kuchma's administration managed to snatch the initiative and form the parliamentary majority, two years later the same parliament backed up the Orange revolution....Unless the authorities understand the scale of the protest sentiments, they will be hit by the second wave of the tsunami.."

And with a possible/probable? economic crisis looming....will there be only one way to go?


UkrToday said...

In somewhat naive and romantic view of events what later became known as the orange revolution. It was not a revolution but a successful and orchestrated staged protest event. The people were told that the election was stolen and they wanted change. But the country was divided and Yushchenko's victory was not overwhelming. Analysis of the second round 2004 election results raises doubts as to the extent of the claim that the 2004 Presidential election was "stolen".

There were errors and issues of concern in a number of electoral districts and if you excluded those from the count the overall result still showed a win for Yanukovych.

Faced with a crowd of over a million protestors the only option facing Ukraine was to hold a third round repeat ballot. In any repeat election there is a common 5 to 6% swing to the opposition parties. Ukraine was no exception. Yushchenko won the 2004 ballot with 52% of the vote.

... said...

The real test of Ukraine's democratic revolution can later in 2006. The "Orange revolution" forces managed to win a majority of the Parliamentary vote but due primarily to the actions of the Victor Yushchenko's Party "Our Ukraine" the three coalition partners were unable to decisively form a ruling government. Yushchenko undermined Ukraine's parliamentary majority refusing to support the formation of a democratic alliance and the sharing of political power within the coalition.

Ukraine after three months of political instability was facing a constitutional crises. The Socialists eventually called it a day and for the sake of stability in the Country supported the formation of a unity government with Yanukovych elected Prime Minister. The Yanukovych government was relatively successful and restored stability and governance. They had pursued a policy of reform and the establishment of a full parliamentary system of government in line with other European States as recommended by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. This polciy would have seen the removal of presidential power and the establishment of democratic institutions was opposed by President Yushchenko who continued to oppose and destabilize Ukraine's Parliamentary majority.

Yushchenko pandering to Yulia Tymoshenko's desire to secure power illegally and unconstitutionally dismissed Ukraine's democratically elected Parliament, causing seven months of political and civil unrest. This event and the actions of Yushchenko destroyed confidence and trust in democracy. It was a fialed attempt by Yuschhenko to seize power and prevent Ukraine from becoming a true democratc nation governed by parliamentary rule.

Ukraine faced with a stand-off agreed to hold a fresh Parliamentary election in November 2007. The results of the election were indecisive with the Socialist Party of Ukraine falling 0.14% short of the 3% representative threshold. Block Yulia Tymoshenko with the support of the president's Political Party "Our Ukraine" held a slim majority of one in the new parliament and it was clear that this alliance would not hold.

... said...

In 2008/9 Yushchenko who had lost support of the Ukrainian people continued to undermine Ukraine's democratic development and the Tymoshenko government. Tymochenko was forced to break away from Yushchenko and managed to secure the support of Lytvn who was later elected to the position of Speaker, the position that was previously denied to Olexandr Moroz which triggered the collapse of the Orange revolution back in 2006.

Yushenko's support continued to decline and he later sought revenge.

In late 2009 Yushchenko initiated action against Yulia Tymoshchenko which later saw her arrested and jailed.

Desperate to hold on to office for as long as he could Yushchenko forced Ukraine into holding a Presidential election in the midst of Ukraine's winter.

Yuschenko who was elected President in 2004 with 52% of the vote was soundly defeated in the first round. his support slumping to a low 5%.

Yushenko blamed Tymoshenko for his fall from grace and he actively campaigned for her opposition candidate Victor Yanukovych who was elected President in the second run-off round of voting.

Having secured the presidency Yanukovych and his Party of Regions abandoned previous policies of democratic constitutional reform and set about on a program of consolidating presidential power. The biggest step being the nullification of the Constitutional changes that were agreed to in 2004/5 and saw Ukraine take an important step towards becoming a parliamentary democracy.

Yanukovych's reversal of the advancement made by the "Orange Revolution" was complete.

He was successful in his democratication of Ukraine primarily as a result of the instability and betrayal caused by his predecessor, Victor Yushchenko.

It was Yushchenko who caused the collapse of the Orange revolution in 2006.

It was Yushchenko who opposed Ukraine becoming a Parliamentary democracy.

It was Yushchenko who initiated the political charges against Yulia Tymoshenko which later saw her arrested and jailed for seven years.

It was Yushchenko who created the environment and support for Yanukovych to win and consolidate presidential power.

Yushchenko betrayed Ukraine and the peoples revolution and democracy itself.

If anyone should be jailed for abuse of office it is Yushchenko.