Saturday, December 06, 2014

Putin's lack of strategy for Donbas wlll lead to catastrophe

In an article in your blogger picked up from Shaun Walker's twitter, the author claims the main reason for the recent resignation of several senior Russian officials responsible for the Kremlin's Novorossiya project in Eastern Ukraine was their failure to achieve greater pro-Russian sentiment there.

One Russian academic reckons the LNR and DNR can now claim to exist [even thought recent elections were 'respected, but not recognised by Moscow] which in his opinion can be considered a success. But according to him, these so-called republics' future is similar to that of Transdnistria but with one important caveat. Maintenance costs will inevitably have to be borne by Russia, although the Ukrainian elites that fled to Russia should make a contribution too.

"But in any case Donbas is turning into a "black hole" for the Russian economy, its politics and geopolitics. There was no strategy for Ukraine from the start. A strategic management axiom states that tactical and operational successes cannot compensate for the lack of strategy; the party that has no strategy, always loses," he said.

A DNR coordinator, observing the situation on the spot agrees that there have been no long-term strategy and long-term plans, either in Moscow nor in the Donbas. "Hence all the mess" with the personnel changes.

"To make far-reaching conclusions from these resignations and reassignments is mere guesswork. It makes sense only to speak only about the presence or absence of a real humanitarian or military assistance in the Donbas.

It's difficult to build confidence in Russia only by providing moral protection, there has to be a physical side this - at least a full scale humanitarian mission, not to mention military aid. Meanwhile the situation for residents of Donbas is only getting worse.

Hundreds of thousands of people cannot be fed and kept warm just with humanitarian convoys. The Russian Federation can provide real help by participating in the restoration of jobs and the financial sector."

In other words the Kremlin "broke it, and is now going to have to fix it"...otherwise they will lose hearts and minds in Donbas...But judging from Putin's pathetic performance on Thursday, they care little about this and are prepared to stand back and watch moronic and thuggish DNR and LNR leaders oversee a looming humanitarian catastrophe...

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