The first reading of the draft report of the European Parliament’s recommendations to the Council, the Commission and the EEAS on the negotiations of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement has been postponed from the 26 - 29th September pleniary session, provisionally until 16th November.
The Tymoshenko gas trial, which had been in its final run-in last week, was sensationally adjourned on Monday, until 27th September. A verdict was imminent and therefore would probably have been announced on Friday 30th September, or more likely, on Monday 3rd October, i.e. just after the European parliament session.
Now after this postponement in the European parliament, a further adjournment in the Tymoshenko trial could be likely, as I suggested in my previous blog.
'Lyevyi Bereg' editor-in-chief Sonia Koshkina reckons it could almost be the New Year before a sentence is passed in the Tymoshenko trial, and claims the former PM can be regarded as a hostage or a bargaining chip, serving to focus both Brussels' and Moscow's attention on to the looming gas war; to be released once a new gas price for Ukraine is settled.
President of European People`s Party Dr. Wilfried Martens met President Victor Yanukovych today. He had been denied access to the incarcerated Tymoshenko earlier in the day.
The big-selling pro-PoR 'Segodnya' concludes an article describing his visit thus: "..the European politician yet again made clear that a decision on the Association Agreement with the EU depends on the court's decision on Tymoshenko.
'Segodnya', quoting a recent 'Ukrainska Pravda' piece, says: "It's difficult to land up behind bars on the "Tymoshenko [criminal] article", media reports -The defendants usually get off with a fine or a 'suspended' sentence....They are preparing their readers for a soft landing for Lady Yu, as they sometimes call her..
Thursday, September 15, 2011
Monday, September 12, 2011
Turning point for Tymoshenko today?
Today could turn out to be a pivotal day in Ukrainian politics.
Since the start of the Tymoshenko trial in June the presiding judge has done his utmost to force proceedings at break-neck speed. Day after day court sessions have frequently started at 9 a.m. and continued almost without a break into the early evening. Tymoshenko's team have been constantly denied the right to call dozens of expert witnesses, despite their frequent appeals to do so. Requests for additional time to prepare the case for the defence have been almost invariably denied, as have requests to present detailed evidence such as Naftogas external auditors' reports.
In a word, it has been blinding obvious that the prosecution, judges and their political puppet-masters hads all intended the trial to come to an end and a guilty verdict to be pronounced just as quickly as half-decently possible.
But, to the astonishment of virtually all commentators, when court was re-convened today, the presiding judge announced a two-week adjournment until September 27: "to guarantee the rights of the defence and provide extra time." Significantly, the prosecuting council who had previously protested the granting of any slack to the defence, offered no challenge to the judge's decision.
In other words a complete about-face..
At a meeting of big-shot 'Regionnaires' recently, the whispers were that most of the talking was about finalising the details of the denouement of Tymoshenko's career. Most media observers considered a guilty verdict and a hefty sentence to be imminent, and the trial to be wrapped up by the end of this week. There had been lots of speculation over how heavy the sentence would be, and whether president Yanukovych would amnesty his deadliest political foe in order to attenuate the unprecendented pressure from abroad. Either way Tymoshenko's political career looked all but doomed.
My impression is that Yanukovych has been told in no uncertain terms by Western leaders: If Tymoshenko's political career is terminated, i.e. if a guilty verdict is announced at the end of the trial, we are not messing about...we are closing the door on any further business...Yanukovych has now been forced to make a stark choice.
At the moment Tymoshenko is not guilty of anything and can be released by a snap of the fingers of sourcerer's apprentice of a judge. But a not guilty verdict would be just too much to bear for the current authorities, so the Tymoshenko trial could be suspended for an indefinite period,,..allegations remaining hanging over her. The pressure from abroad, however, would immediately subside.
A guilty verdict in the Tymoshenko trial immediately after the Eastern Partnership summit in Warsaw, which is to take place September 29-30, reduces the chances of ratification of any EU-Ukraine agreements initialled in Warsaw because the two-week adjournment announced today in the Pechersk court would be regarded as a cynical ploy intended to temporarily deceive EU leaders.
Yanukovych will be at the United Nations General Assembly next week, so the delay helps avoid embarrassment in New York too.
p.s. But there again, who knows what goes on in the heads of the people who got themselves into this mess in the first place? Tymoshenko's political career was in decline, the opposition were demoralised and fractured, European perspectives were looking rosy, and after the Kharkiv agreement, things were set fair with Russia....how did it all go wrong?
It woz the 'mother's union' that fixed it.
Since the start of the Tymoshenko trial in June the presiding judge has done his utmost to force proceedings at break-neck speed. Day after day court sessions have frequently started at 9 a.m. and continued almost without a break into the early evening. Tymoshenko's team have been constantly denied the right to call dozens of expert witnesses, despite their frequent appeals to do so. Requests for additional time to prepare the case for the defence have been almost invariably denied, as have requests to present detailed evidence such as Naftogas external auditors' reports.
In a word, it has been blinding obvious that the prosecution, judges and their political puppet-masters hads all intended the trial to come to an end and a guilty verdict to be pronounced just as quickly as half-decently possible.
But, to the astonishment of virtually all commentators, when court was re-convened today, the presiding judge announced a two-week adjournment until September 27: "to guarantee the rights of the defence and provide extra time." Significantly, the prosecuting council who had previously protested the granting of any slack to the defence, offered no challenge to the judge's decision.
In other words a complete about-face..
At a meeting of big-shot 'Regionnaires' recently, the whispers were that most of the talking was about finalising the details of the denouement of Tymoshenko's career. Most media observers considered a guilty verdict and a hefty sentence to be imminent, and the trial to be wrapped up by the end of this week. There had been lots of speculation over how heavy the sentence would be, and whether president Yanukovych would amnesty his deadliest political foe in order to attenuate the unprecendented pressure from abroad. Either way Tymoshenko's political career looked all but doomed.
My impression is that Yanukovych has been told in no uncertain terms by Western leaders: If Tymoshenko's political career is terminated, i.e. if a guilty verdict is announced at the end of the trial, we are not messing about...we are closing the door on any further business...Yanukovych has now been forced to make a stark choice.
At the moment Tymoshenko is not guilty of anything and can be released by a snap of the fingers of sourcerer's apprentice of a judge. But a not guilty verdict would be just too much to bear for the current authorities, so the Tymoshenko trial could be suspended for an indefinite period,,..allegations remaining hanging over her. The pressure from abroad, however, would immediately subside.
A guilty verdict in the Tymoshenko trial immediately after the Eastern Partnership summit in Warsaw, which is to take place September 29-30, reduces the chances of ratification of any EU-Ukraine agreements initialled in Warsaw because the two-week adjournment announced today in the Pechersk court would be regarded as a cynical ploy intended to temporarily deceive EU leaders.
Yanukovych will be at the United Nations General Assembly next week, so the delay helps avoid embarrassment in New York too.
p.s. But there again, who knows what goes on in the heads of the people who got themselves into this mess in the first place? Tymoshenko's political career was in decline, the opposition were demoralised and fractured, European perspectives were looking rosy, and after the Kharkiv agreement, things were set fair with Russia....how did it all go wrong?
It woz the 'mother's union' that fixed it.
Friday, September 09, 2011
Medvedev says gas formula is universal and applies to Ukraine and other countries - and 'Tymo', 'Lutsyk' to be free soon?
Yesterday president Medvedev of Russia was interviewed by Euronews.
Below is a portion of that interview:
Euronews: Another winter is coming, and once more there is another conflict between Russia and Ukraine about gas.
Dmitry Medvedev: Well, so far there’s no conflict, rather there are differences that might lead to various developments.
Euronews: Could that lead to problems with the gas supply to Europe, for example?
Dmitry Medvedev: You know, I hope that after all the recent experiences our close partners and friends must learn that you can’t torpedo existing contracts – even if you don’t like them, like when our colleagues and partners, the president of Ukraine or the Ukrainian Prime Minister say that a contract is unfair and bad and they won’t honour it.
It is completely unacceptable. All agreements, as long as they are not refuted in court or abandoned by the parties, must be carried out.
And I hope that our partners, our Ukrainian friends will likewise stick strictly to the framework agreement concluded in 2009. As for the future, I have repeatedly said that we are willing to discuss various cooperation schemes with our Ukrainian colleagues. Including advanced plans, based on the integration of Ukraine in the Customs Union.
But they, for some reason, say that the WTO prevents them from being in the Customs Union – but it’s a little strange, as the Customs Union doesn’t prevent us from joining the WTO. But that’s their own view.
Or we could discuss integration based on some other approaches, including our investment in Ukraine’s economy or gas transport system.
If we can agree on this, we will probably be ready to consider change in the scheme of cooperation. But at the same time the immutable principle remains that gas cooperation is always based on a formula. The formula is universal, and it applies to Ukraine and other countries. Talk like “we’re paying more than other countries” isn’t based on anything. This is pure propaganda.
Ukraine pays by the same formula, and pays commensurate with the price paid by other European consumers. Current prices are high, that’s true. But they can also be extremely low sometimes. And then it’s a problem for the energy supplier. So, in summary, I hope Ukrainian consumers will keep following the contract properly, and we’ll come to an agreement about our future business.
It is unlikely what Medvedev says about Ukraine's gas payments is far from the truth. On top of this Yanukovych gave up Sevastopol for several decades to the Russian Black Sea fleet in exchange for a gas discount..
So why is Tymoshenko being charged and imprisoned for negotiating a bad gas deal with a monopolistic supplier under extreme duress, in 2009?
[A most informative, up-to-date concise explanation of the Ukrainian-Russian gas dispute can be read here ]
This article from 'Ukrainian Weekly ' explains the backstreet gangster tactics being employed to eliminate Tymoshenko from Ukrainian politics...What else can be expected from these thugs?
p.s. Interesting and intriguing statement on the president of Poland's official site today following a meeting between himself and president of the European Council, Herman van Rompuy on Friday afternoon, during which Ukraine's European perspectives were discussed.
"After talks with President Yanukovych [on Thursday ] I can have a limited, but reasonably, optimistic point of view on the prospects for development of the situation (in Ukraine), also in the context of the Yulia Tymoshenko's case.... We will continue to take actions which should ensure the success of the Eastern Partnership Summit in Warsaw, but also [provide] an exit for Ukraine from a difficult situation in which it has found itself, in the opinion of many EU member states, due to the ongoing trial of Tymoshenko, said president Komorowski."
Hmm....Has Yanik made certain pledges or undertakings?
Saturday Update: 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' thinks some kind of 'fudge' or as they call it, 'ersatz -variant' is likely in the Tymoshenko and Lutsenko cases too...
Below is a portion of that interview:
Euronews: Another winter is coming, and once more there is another conflict between Russia and Ukraine about gas.
Dmitry Medvedev: Well, so far there’s no conflict, rather there are differences that might lead to various developments.
Euronews: Could that lead to problems with the gas supply to Europe, for example?
Dmitry Medvedev: You know, I hope that after all the recent experiences our close partners and friends must learn that you can’t torpedo existing contracts – even if you don’t like them, like when our colleagues and partners, the president of Ukraine or the Ukrainian Prime Minister say that a contract is unfair and bad and they won’t honour it.
It is completely unacceptable. All agreements, as long as they are not refuted in court or abandoned by the parties, must be carried out.
And I hope that our partners, our Ukrainian friends will likewise stick strictly to the framework agreement concluded in 2009. As for the future, I have repeatedly said that we are willing to discuss various cooperation schemes with our Ukrainian colleagues. Including advanced plans, based on the integration of Ukraine in the Customs Union.
But they, for some reason, say that the WTO prevents them from being in the Customs Union – but it’s a little strange, as the Customs Union doesn’t prevent us from joining the WTO. But that’s their own view.
Or we could discuss integration based on some other approaches, including our investment in Ukraine’s economy or gas transport system.
If we can agree on this, we will probably be ready to consider change in the scheme of cooperation. But at the same time the immutable principle remains that gas cooperation is always based on a formula. The formula is universal, and it applies to Ukraine and other countries. Talk like “we’re paying more than other countries” isn’t based on anything. This is pure propaganda.
Ukraine pays by the same formula, and pays commensurate with the price paid by other European consumers. Current prices are high, that’s true. But they can also be extremely low sometimes. And then it’s a problem for the energy supplier. So, in summary, I hope Ukrainian consumers will keep following the contract properly, and we’ll come to an agreement about our future business.
It is unlikely what Medvedev says about Ukraine's gas payments is far from the truth. On top of this Yanukovych gave up Sevastopol for several decades to the Russian Black Sea fleet in exchange for a gas discount..
So why is Tymoshenko being charged and imprisoned for negotiating a bad gas deal with a monopolistic supplier under extreme duress, in 2009?
[A most informative, up-to-date concise explanation of the Ukrainian-Russian gas dispute can be read here ]
This article from 'Ukrainian Weekly ' explains the backstreet gangster tactics being employed to eliminate Tymoshenko from Ukrainian politics...What else can be expected from these thugs?
p.s. Interesting and intriguing statement on the president of Poland's official site today following a meeting between himself and president of the European Council, Herman van Rompuy on Friday afternoon, during which Ukraine's European perspectives were discussed.
"After talks with President Yanukovych [on Thursday ] I can have a limited, but reasonably, optimistic point of view on the prospects for development of the situation (in Ukraine), also in the context of the Yulia Tymoshenko's case.... We will continue to take actions which should ensure the success of the Eastern Partnership Summit in Warsaw, but also [provide] an exit for Ukraine from a difficult situation in which it has found itself, in the opinion of many EU member states, due to the ongoing trial of Tymoshenko, said president Komorowski."
Hmm....Has Yanik made certain pledges or undertakings?
Saturday Update: 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' thinks some kind of 'fudge' or as they call it, 'ersatz -variant' is likely in the Tymoshenko and Lutsenko cases too...
Yatsenyuk's 'Front Zmin' having its balls sqeezed too...
Arseniy Yatsenyuk's 'Front Zmin' reports the head of their Donetsk oblast organisation, Oleksandr Yaroshenko, was arrested late Wednesday night in Kyiv. They claim he has been taken by automobile to Donetsk, but no-one has been able to contact him.
The party says the arrest took place immediately after a visit by Yatsenyuk to the Donetsk oblast where he 'severely criticised the actions of the president, govermnent, and city council'.
Yaroshenko is the head doctor in dermatology clinic in Mariupol and over the last few years has set up several diagnostic medical centres in Ukraine, so sounds like a 'regular guy'.
Neither the Kyiv police nor the Ukrainian Security Service, SBU, seem to know anything about Yaroshenko's arrest..
If Yulia Tymoshenko is found guilty and sentenced to a prison 'stretch', as most observers predict , Yatsenyuk, whether he likes it or not, will become 'leader of the opposition' and a most realistic challenger to Yanukovych..
The authoritative 'Kommentarii' weekly considers this shady Yaroshenko business to be part of a co-ordinated campaign, already underway, intended to frighten off Donetsk businessmen who may be sympathetic to 'Front Zmin'.
Yatsenyuk's party have been landing some heavy political blows in the region lately, and 'Kommentarii' suggest that if it were not for his immunity from prosecution provided by his parliamentary deputy status, young Arseniy may have been in the same 'hot water' as Tymoshenko already..
Loosely paraphrasing 'Kommentarii's' conclusions:
..many of the rich 'Frontovyky' [in the Donetsk area] are now encountering problems with enviable regularity to make them realise that it makes not the slightest sense to financially support 'Front Zmin'.. to 'lean on them', but if they persist, [to let them know] their businesses can be taken off them. The [biggest] threat the authorities' tactics pose to Yatsenyuk himself right now is loss of financing... forcing him to consider seeking a"roof" provided by one of the Party of Regions' oligarchs and becoming a PoR-operated glove-puppet opposition [leader].
In other words: 'Front Zmin' are being "made an offer they cannot refuse" ....now who said that?
Two of Yanukovych's biggest rivals, Tymoshenko and Lutsenko, are behind bars.. A third majpr party led by a potential future president, Tihipko's 'Strong Ukraine', has recently 'melded' with PoR. Now Yatsenyuk is being squeezed....you gotta admire these guys...straight out of Mario Puzo..
The party says the arrest took place immediately after a visit by Yatsenyuk to the Donetsk oblast where he 'severely criticised the actions of the president, govermnent, and city council'.
Yaroshenko is the head doctor in dermatology clinic in Mariupol and over the last few years has set up several diagnostic medical centres in Ukraine, so sounds like a 'regular guy'.
Neither the Kyiv police nor the Ukrainian Security Service, SBU, seem to know anything about Yaroshenko's arrest..
If Yulia Tymoshenko is found guilty and sentenced to a prison 'stretch', as most observers predict , Yatsenyuk, whether he likes it or not, will become 'leader of the opposition' and a most realistic challenger to Yanukovych..
The authoritative 'Kommentarii' weekly considers this shady Yaroshenko business to be part of a co-ordinated campaign, already underway, intended to frighten off Donetsk businessmen who may be sympathetic to 'Front Zmin'.
Yatsenyuk's party have been landing some heavy political blows in the region lately, and 'Kommentarii' suggest that if it were not for his immunity from prosecution provided by his parliamentary deputy status, young Arseniy may have been in the same 'hot water' as Tymoshenko already..
Loosely paraphrasing 'Kommentarii's' conclusions:
..many of the rich 'Frontovyky' [in the Donetsk area] are now encountering problems with enviable regularity to make them realise that it makes not the slightest sense to financially support 'Front Zmin'.. to 'lean on them', but if they persist, [to let them know] their businesses can be taken off them. The [biggest] threat the authorities' tactics pose to Yatsenyuk himself right now is loss of financing... forcing him to consider seeking a"roof" provided by one of the Party of Regions' oligarchs and becoming a PoR-operated glove-puppet opposition [leader].
In other words: 'Front Zmin' are being "made an offer they cannot refuse" ....now who said that?
Two of Yanukovych's biggest rivals, Tymoshenko and Lutsenko, are behind bars.. A third majpr party led by a potential future president, Tihipko's 'Strong Ukraine', has recently 'melded' with PoR. Now Yatsenyuk is being squeezed....you gotta admire these guys...straight out of Mario Puzo..
Wednesday, September 07, 2011
The book 'wot Yanukovyhc rote'
So the translator of Yanukovych's latest book, 'Opportunity Ukraine', has now taken the blame for this piece of blatant plagiarism.
After denials of plagiarism by presidential administration spokesperson Hanna Herman and the subsequent scandal that flared up in the international press, someone had to be made the fall guy.
The translator of the book, Konstyantyn Vasylkevych, now admits he omitted references to sources because: "It was necessary to make the book more convenient to read."
LEvko says everyone knows that Yanukovych is not a well-read man capable of writing book of several hundreds of pages. Nothing wrong in that. I recall when Yanukovych had to write a comment in a visitors book several years ago in a European city, he discreetly pulled out a little crib-sheet to make sure he did not make any spelling mistakes...Nothing wrong with that either..
But to claim authorship of a trashy piece of plagiarism shows Yanukovych is losing his sense of reality, and is becoming self-delusional, which is dangerous..And a panglossian book, intended to encourage sceptical foreigners and hard-nosed businessmen to invest in Ukraine, will have quite the opposite effect..
p.s. "The book what I wrote" is the title of a book about two well-loved British comedians - so, strictly no plagiarism in this blog..
Update on oil platform scandal
In late May and early June I posted several blogs [here, here, here] about an alleged scam, exposed by the 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' newspaper, involving the purchase of an oil drilling platform for hundreds of millions of dollars via a highly dubious off-shore company, all overseen by odious energy minister Yuriy Boyko.
Now Stan Gorin, a director of the off-shore name-plate company, 'Highway Investment Processing LLP', whose registered offices are over a plumber's merchant between a Chinese take-away and a tattoo parlour in Cardiff, Wales, claims he has received no money, has never been in Ukraine, and has nothing to do with drilling platforms, even though Ukrainian National Joint Stock Company'Chornomornaftogaz' has has already paid $202 million into his company's bank account 'up-front' for the drilling platform.
At the time the story broke, Boyko claimed the story had been 'commissioned' in order to discredit him. He promised to refer the matter to the Ukrainian State Security [SBU] for investigation so that the instigators of this 'disgraceful muck-raking' could be revealed.
Its now seems that the matter was investigated - not by the SBU, because they are headed by Valeriy Khoroshkovsky, a financial/political associate of Boyko's, but by the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
To date no-one has been named as the alleged [fictional?] commissioner of this story, and 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' has not been told to retract their story..
After denials of plagiarism by presidential administration spokesperson Hanna Herman and the subsequent scandal that flared up in the international press, someone had to be made the fall guy.
The translator of the book, Konstyantyn Vasylkevych, now admits he omitted references to sources because: "It was necessary to make the book more convenient to read."
LEvko says everyone knows that Yanukovych is not a well-read man capable of writing book of several hundreds of pages. Nothing wrong in that. I recall when Yanukovych had to write a comment in a visitors book several years ago in a European city, he discreetly pulled out a little crib-sheet to make sure he did not make any spelling mistakes...Nothing wrong with that either..
But to claim authorship of a trashy piece of plagiarism shows Yanukovych is losing his sense of reality, and is becoming self-delusional, which is dangerous..And a panglossian book, intended to encourage sceptical foreigners and hard-nosed businessmen to invest in Ukraine, will have quite the opposite effect..
p.s. "The book what I wrote" is the title of a book about two well-loved British comedians - so, strictly no plagiarism in this blog..
Update on oil platform scandal
In late May and early June I posted several blogs [here, here, here] about an alleged scam, exposed by the 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' newspaper, involving the purchase of an oil drilling platform for hundreds of millions of dollars via a highly dubious off-shore company, all overseen by odious energy minister Yuriy Boyko.
Now Stan Gorin, a director of the off-shore name-plate company, 'Highway Investment Processing LLP', whose registered offices are over a plumber's merchant between a Chinese take-away and a tattoo parlour in Cardiff, Wales, claims he has received no money, has never been in Ukraine, and has nothing to do with drilling platforms, even though Ukrainian National Joint Stock Company'Chornomornaftogaz' has has already paid $202 million into his company's bank account 'up-front' for the drilling platform.
At the time the story broke, Boyko claimed the story had been 'commissioned' in order to discredit him. He promised to refer the matter to the Ukrainian State Security [SBU] for investigation so that the instigators of this 'disgraceful muck-raking' could be revealed.
Its now seems that the matter was investigated - not by the SBU, because they are headed by Valeriy Khoroshkovsky, a financial/political associate of Boyko's, but by the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
To date no-one has been named as the alleged [fictional?] commissioner of this story, and 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' has not been told to retract their story..
Saturday, September 03, 2011
European leaders not bluffing...
At an informal meeting of Ministers of Foreign Affairs of 27 EU countries in Sopot, Poland today, discussions were held on preparations for the forthcoming Eastern Partnership Summit, [scheduled for 29-30th September in Warsaw] where association and free trade agreements with Ukraine could be finalised.
Today, Reuters reported the meeting thus: "European Union members could block an agreement on closer ties with Ukraine if Kiev continues with a "show trial" against the country’s former leader, senior EU diplomats said on Saturday"
French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe, in a separate press conference, said: “The majority view (in the EU) is that the agreement can be finalised only if the Tymoshenko case is solved..It means having a free and fair trial and abandoning the unjustified charges against her.”
Many similar declarations have been voiced for many weeks now. However, reading stuff in Ukrainian newspapers and listening to Ukrainian TV and radio, so-called experts, representatives of 'vlasti', and maybe even the man in the street, all consider these to be empty threats and bluff.
E.g. well-known German Eurasia expert, Alexander Rahr, appearing in a recent 'Bolshaya Politika' talk show , said the sorts of responses heard today in Sopot are merely 'ritualistic' and declared that in politics, apart from moral, there are also absolutely cynical, 'realpolitik' judgements to be made.
According to Rahr, Europeans big fear that Ukraine could slip back into Russia's sphere of influence and a new Russian empire could reemerge. To prevent this, free trade and association agreements will, sooner or later be signed between the EU and Ukraine. Geo-political interests need to be served even if Tymoshenko has to 'go to the wall'.
LEvko's view is that 'big-beast' foreign ministers do not bluff...they have have made too many big decisions, sent their young persons to war too many times in recent years to have to do this... There is domestic political capital to be gained by standing up for democratic principles...protecting the imprisoned fairy princess from the brutal ogre etc...'Realpolitik' is applied in different measure according to each individual country and situation..
Most likely there will be a verdict in the Tymoshenko trial by the time of the Eastern Partnership Summit, so not long to wait for its messy resolutions ...
p.s. Tymoshenko, in a recent letter co-written with Hryhoriy Nemyria, said: "It is our fervent belief that Ukraine's future lies in Europe. Our government displayed our commitment to this goal by initiating talks for a comprehensive free-trade agreement with the EU, which is due to be finalized this year. And while we do not want Mrs. Tymoshenko's or her associates' political show-trials to deflect Ukraine from its European path, it is worth noting that never before has the EU entered into such a far-reaching free-trade agreement with a non-democratic state. Sadly, this is exactly what Ukraine is becoming."
Today, Reuters reported the meeting thus: "European Union members could block an agreement on closer ties with Ukraine if Kiev continues with a "show trial" against the country’s former leader, senior EU diplomats said on Saturday"
French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe, in a separate press conference, said: “The majority view (in the EU) is that the agreement can be finalised only if the Tymoshenko case is solved..It means having a free and fair trial and abandoning the unjustified charges against her.”
Many similar declarations have been voiced for many weeks now. However, reading stuff in Ukrainian newspapers and listening to Ukrainian TV and radio, so-called experts, representatives of 'vlasti', and maybe even the man in the street, all consider these to be empty threats and bluff.
E.g. well-known German Eurasia expert, Alexander Rahr, appearing in a recent 'Bolshaya Politika' talk show , said the sorts of responses heard today in Sopot are merely 'ritualistic' and declared that in politics, apart from moral, there are also absolutely cynical, 'realpolitik' judgements to be made.
According to Rahr, Europeans big fear that Ukraine could slip back into Russia's sphere of influence and a new Russian empire could reemerge. To prevent this, free trade and association agreements will, sooner or later be signed between the EU and Ukraine. Geo-political interests need to be served even if Tymoshenko has to 'go to the wall'.
LEvko's view is that 'big-beast' foreign ministers do not bluff...they have have made too many big decisions, sent their young persons to war too many times in recent years to have to do this... There is domestic political capital to be gained by standing up for democratic principles...protecting the imprisoned fairy princess from the brutal ogre etc...'Realpolitik' is applied in different measure according to each individual country and situation..
Most likely there will be a verdict in the Tymoshenko trial by the time of the Eastern Partnership Summit, so not long to wait for its messy resolutions ...
p.s. Tymoshenko, in a recent letter co-written with Hryhoriy Nemyria, said: "It is our fervent belief that Ukraine's future lies in Europe. Our government displayed our commitment to this goal by initiating talks for a comprehensive free-trade agreement with the EU, which is due to be finalized this year. And while we do not want Mrs. Tymoshenko's or her associates' political show-trials to deflect Ukraine from its European path, it is worth noting that never before has the EU entered into such a far-reaching free-trade agreement with a non-democratic state. Sadly, this is exactly what Ukraine is becoming."
Thursday, September 01, 2011
Cunning plan to save Yanik's face?
'Kommentarii' weekly claims that according to their sources, Ukraine's ruling authorities will never give up on putting Tymoshenko behind bars. But in order to reduce the degree of criticism from the West, the presidential administration has dreamt up a plan to extricate themselves from the bind they find themselves in as a result of the criminal cases in progress against Tymoshenko and former internal affairs minister, Yuriy Lutsenko.
The plan is as follows: Tymoshenko is to be found guilty and convicted, but Lutsenko is to be released, and, at worst, is to receive a suspended sentence.
In order to "enhance and confirm the objectivity and impartiality of the Ukrainian judiciary", some of Party of Regions' lesser fish are to be caught and arrested on charges of corruption.
In addition, slimeball parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn, who has recently been 'fingered' by alleged perpetrator Oleksiy Pukach for commissioning the murder of Georgiy Gongadze, could be made to 'take a fall' for this offence.
All this is supposed to get Yanukovych back into the 'good books' of the West.
Only a thuggish numbskull moron could come up with such a hare-brained scheme, so your humble blogger attaches no credence to this story at all....but there again....
Recently 'Der Spiegel' declared: "As alarm grows in the West over the trial against former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, German politicians are threatening to withdraw their support for an agreement that would strengthen ties between the European Union and the former Soviet Republic.."
Everyone's gaze is only on queen bee...
p.s. How ironic that Ukraine's government is threatening to file lawsuits in international courts regarding its gas disputes with Russia, when, at the same time, its own domestic courts are bungling the Tymoshenko gas trial at home... maybe she should be tried in an international court too...what would the verdict be there, I wonder?
Will Yanukovych accept any ruling e.g by the European Court of Human Rights on the political show-trials taking place in Ukraine right now?
...stupid question...
The plan is as follows: Tymoshenko is to be found guilty and convicted, but Lutsenko is to be released, and, at worst, is to receive a suspended sentence.
In order to "enhance and confirm the objectivity and impartiality of the Ukrainian judiciary", some of Party of Regions' lesser fish are to be caught and arrested on charges of corruption.
In addition, slimeball parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn, who has recently been 'fingered' by alleged perpetrator Oleksiy Pukach for commissioning the murder of Georgiy Gongadze, could be made to 'take a fall' for this offence.
All this is supposed to get Yanukovych back into the 'good books' of the West.
Only a thuggish numbskull moron could come up with such a hare-brained scheme, so your humble blogger attaches no credence to this story at all....but there again....
Recently 'Der Spiegel' declared: "As alarm grows in the West over the trial against former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, German politicians are threatening to withdraw their support for an agreement that would strengthen ties between the European Union and the former Soviet Republic.."
Everyone's gaze is only on queen bee...
p.s. How ironic that Ukraine's government is threatening to file lawsuits in international courts regarding its gas disputes with Russia, when, at the same time, its own domestic courts are bungling the Tymoshenko gas trial at home... maybe she should be tried in an international court too...what would the verdict be there, I wonder?
Will Yanukovych accept any ruling e.g by the European Court of Human Rights on the political show-trials taking place in Ukraine right now?
...stupid question...
Why cases against opposition are seen to be politically motivated
According to the pro-Yanukovych "Segodnya'" newspaper the inevitable 'source close to Yanukovych' exposed the president's calculations by claiming:
Polish president Komorowski is not interested in Tymoshenko herself - he is perfectly well aware that by signing a gas contract in 2009, Yulia T. worked for the benefit of Russia as well as for herself in the presidential race, but this topic had to be raised to take account of a strong BYuT lobby the European Parliament.
The only important thing is which argument tips the scales - the need to mitigate the situation around Tymoshenko, or the need to draw Ukraine into the EU because of the serious pressure being strongly applied by Russia onto Ukraine.
For Komorowski the choice is clear already - drawing Ukraine into the EU is more important than Tymoshenko, and his opinion as the current head of the EU is influential, but it is also clear that there are more powerful heads of state in the EU.
However the Polish President will make every effort, because he understands that Ukraine will either receive an association agreement under his Presidency, i,e. by the end of 2011, or it will it be postponed indefinitely.
At the same time, a 'Segodnya' BYuT informant claims that it was made clear to the president of Ukraine in Gdansk that the EU integrates only with democracies, or those countries moving toward democracy; and a country where the opposition leader is behind bars can not be considered democratic.
Neither of these viewpoints are strictly correct - no leader is above the law.
The criminal cases against both Tymoshenko, and Lutsenko, are fundamentally weak - that is the reason why they are seen to be politically motivated. In countries with independent judiciary there would have been no trial in either case, or the trials would have collapsed very quickly.
Furthermore, even though these trials are being carefully scrutinised, they have been conducted from the very beginning in a completely shambolic and prejudicial manner, so any verdict cannot be considered sound.
Polish president Komorowski is not interested in Tymoshenko herself - he is perfectly well aware that by signing a gas contract in 2009, Yulia T. worked for the benefit of Russia as well as for herself in the presidential race, but this topic had to be raised to take account of a strong BYuT lobby the European Parliament.
The only important thing is which argument tips the scales - the need to mitigate the situation around Tymoshenko, or the need to draw Ukraine into the EU because of the serious pressure being strongly applied by Russia onto Ukraine.
For Komorowski the choice is clear already - drawing Ukraine into the EU is more important than Tymoshenko, and his opinion as the current head of the EU is influential, but it is also clear that there are more powerful heads of state in the EU.
However the Polish President will make every effort, because he understands that Ukraine will either receive an association agreement under his Presidency, i,e. by the end of 2011, or it will it be postponed indefinitely.
At the same time, a 'Segodnya' BYuT informant claims that it was made clear to the president of Ukraine in Gdansk that the EU integrates only with democracies, or those countries moving toward democracy; and a country where the opposition leader is behind bars can not be considered democratic.
Neither of these viewpoints are strictly correct - no leader is above the law.
The criminal cases against both Tymoshenko, and Lutsenko, are fundamentally weak - that is the reason why they are seen to be politically motivated. In countries with independent judiciary there would have been no trial in either case, or the trials would have collapsed very quickly.
Furthermore, even though these trials are being carefully scrutinised, they have been conducted from the very beginning in a completely shambolic and prejudicial manner, so any verdict cannot be considered sound.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Polish visit presents Yanukovych with a stark choice
Twenty years ago, on 24th August 1991, the day when Ukraine proclaimed its independence, your humble blogger was in Warsaw. Poland was the first country to recognise the nascent Ukrainian state and is, even today, Ukraine's 'best friend'. But right now they are dismayed by what they see as the 'roll-back' of democracy in the country and the political persecution of Ukrainian opposition leaders, in particular.
Today president Yanukovych was visiting Polish president Komorowski on the Baltic coast in what could turn out to be a watershed meeting.
In an op-ed piece in one of Poland's leading newspapers, 'Gazeta Wyborcza', a Polish presidential advisor worries: "..whether the Ukrainian authorities are fully aware of the consequences that this [Tymoshenko] trial may have on the success of projects of key importance on the declared desire of their permanent association with the European Union."
He adds: In Warsaw, the great hope is that by the end of the six-month period of the Polish presidency, EU talks on association agreements and free trade agreements [with Ukraine] will be concluded, but developments in Kyiv could tie the hands of Poland on the issue.
Arguments of politicians and countries reluctant to draw Ukraine into the EU may gain the upper hand. If we fail to do so by the end of 2011, talks on the association may be a drag on for many months or even longer.
It seems that the authorities in Kyiv, and President Viktor Yanukovych in particular, should take into accout this eventuality. It would be fatal if they have underestimated the seriousness of the situation.
In this high-stakes game for European status for Ukraine Kyiv should not provide arguments that undermine their chances of success.
Other Polish experts also think Komorowski will be trying to convince Yanukovych to free Tymoshenko from custody, whilst Yanukovych could be asking for advice on how to best extricate himself from the mess his hubris and lust for revenge have led him into.
It's looking more and more as if red lines are being drawn - Komorowski may well have told his Ukrainian counterpart: Back-off the opposition, or you're on your own pal..if you do not, a diplomatic train-wreck for you and your ministry of foreign affairs guys may well be in prospect..
Whatever Yanukovych decides, his democratic credentials have already been irretrievably damaged. This may be his last foreign trip westward for a while..
Today president Yanukovych was visiting Polish president Komorowski on the Baltic coast in what could turn out to be a watershed meeting.
In an op-ed piece in one of Poland's leading newspapers, 'Gazeta Wyborcza', a Polish presidential advisor worries: "..whether the Ukrainian authorities are fully aware of the consequences that this [Tymoshenko] trial may have on the success of projects of key importance on the declared desire of their permanent association with the European Union."
He adds: In Warsaw, the great hope is that by the end of the six-month period of the Polish presidency, EU talks on association agreements and free trade agreements [with Ukraine] will be concluded, but developments in Kyiv could tie the hands of Poland on the issue.
Arguments of politicians and countries reluctant to draw Ukraine into the EU may gain the upper hand. If we fail to do so by the end of 2011, talks on the association may be a drag on for many months or even longer.
It seems that the authorities in Kyiv, and President Viktor Yanukovych in particular, should take into accout this eventuality. It would be fatal if they have underestimated the seriousness of the situation.
In this high-stakes game for European status for Ukraine Kyiv should not provide arguments that undermine their chances of success.
Other Polish experts also think Komorowski will be trying to convince Yanukovych to free Tymoshenko from custody, whilst Yanukovych could be asking for advice on how to best extricate himself from the mess his hubris and lust for revenge have led him into.
It's looking more and more as if red lines are being drawn - Komorowski may well have told his Ukrainian counterpart: Back-off the opposition, or you're on your own pal..if you do not, a diplomatic train-wreck for you and your ministry of foreign affairs guys may well be in prospect..
Whatever Yanukovych decides, his democratic credentials have already been irretrievably damaged. This may be his last foreign trip westward for a while..
Saturday, August 27, 2011
Paranoid Yanukovych unable to fake sincerity
Today, Friday, president Yanukovych visited Donetsk to take part in the 'Day of the Miner' celebrations. He gave a speech praising their efforts, stressing the importance of coal to the country's economy, and awarded medals to distinguished workers in the industry.
The dark pall hanging over all of this, was of course the dozens of deaths in recent mining disasters at the local "Sukhodolskaya Vostochnaya", "Bazhanova," and "Krasnokutskaya" mines.
At a pre-arranged press conference the president could only find time to answer three questions from journalists : one from Rinat Akhmetov's TV company, one from Rinat Akhmetov's newspaper, and one from the First National Television channel which was clearly planted to enable Yanukovych to respond to recent comment by Russia's president Medvedev on Ukraine's possible accession into a Customs Union with its northern neighbour.
Yanukovych did not look comfortable, clenching and kneeding his fists, whilst giving his brief answers.
'Ostro' reports that security on the day was absurdly tight. In their words, "Donetsk greeted the president of Ukraine with enormous billboards and empty streets."
"An hour before the arrival of the head of state employees of the SBU and the police cleared people from 'Theatre Square'.
The President's cortege was met by several dozen of miners specially selected for this purpose, and several dozen employees of the SBU. The entire territory and the area in front of the theatre building was cordoned off by police. A brass band played...After the ceremonies had ended, when President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych left the theatre, his security immediately closed the main entrance doors behind him, not allowing any of those present to come out onto the street outside.
People, including those miners that had just congratulated, crowded into the theatre lobby, wondering when they would be allowed to leave the theatre. The waiting lasted about 10 minutes. The door was [then] opened for everyone."
[Compare with British prime minister, David Cameron, taking questions recently from members of parliament in a televised debate on wide-scale riots that took place in London and elsewhere, earlier this month:
"For two and a half hours on the Commons floor, Mr. Cameron took questions from anguished, and often angry, lawmakers. They demanded to know why, on the first nights of the rioting, their constituents had been left to cower in fear in their homes and elsewhere while police officers in riot gear stood back, armed only with nightsticks, under orders not to engage the rioters.
It was the longest inquisition of its kind that any prime minister has faced in living memory. Not even Winston Churchill, often described as the greatest Commons man in history, endured such a protracted grilling." ]
Groucho Marx once said that the key to success in life was sincerity, and added, if you can fake that you have really got it made. It was not one of Yanukovych's better days..
The dark pall hanging over all of this, was of course the dozens of deaths in recent mining disasters at the local "Sukhodolskaya Vostochnaya", "Bazhanova," and "Krasnokutskaya" mines.
At a pre-arranged press conference the president could only find time to answer three questions from journalists : one from Rinat Akhmetov's TV company, one from Rinat Akhmetov's newspaper, and one from the First National Television channel which was clearly planted to enable Yanukovych to respond to recent comment by Russia's president Medvedev on Ukraine's possible accession into a Customs Union with its northern neighbour.
Yanukovych did not look comfortable, clenching and kneeding his fists, whilst giving his brief answers.
'Ostro' reports that security on the day was absurdly tight. In their words, "Donetsk greeted the president of Ukraine with enormous billboards and empty streets."
"An hour before the arrival of the head of state employees of the SBU and the police cleared people from 'Theatre Square'.
The President's cortege was met by several dozen of miners specially selected for this purpose, and several dozen employees of the SBU. The entire territory and the area in front of the theatre building was cordoned off by police. A brass band played...After the ceremonies had ended, when President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych left the theatre, his security immediately closed the main entrance doors behind him, not allowing any of those present to come out onto the street outside.
People, including those miners that had just congratulated, crowded into the theatre lobby, wondering when they would be allowed to leave the theatre. The waiting lasted about 10 minutes. The door was [then] opened for everyone."
[Compare with British prime minister, David Cameron, taking questions recently from members of parliament in a televised debate on wide-scale riots that took place in London and elsewhere, earlier this month:
"For two and a half hours on the Commons floor, Mr. Cameron took questions from anguished, and often angry, lawmakers. They demanded to know why, on the first nights of the rioting, their constituents had been left to cower in fear in their homes and elsewhere while police officers in riot gear stood back, armed only with nightsticks, under orders not to engage the rioters.
It was the longest inquisition of its kind that any prime minister has faced in living memory. Not even Winston Churchill, often described as the greatest Commons man in history, endured such a protracted grilling." ]
Groucho Marx once said that the key to success in life was sincerity, and added, if you can fake that you have really got it made. It was not one of Yanukovych's better days..
Saturday, August 20, 2011
Case against Lutsenko falling apart, but so what?
The twists and turns of the Tymoshenko trial are hogging the mass media pages and airwaves, whilst almost unreported, the criminal case against former minister of the interior, Yuriy Lutsenko is falling apart.
A number of 'victims' of his so-called crimes have failed to turn up in court. The current minister of internal affairs, Anatoliy Mohylyov, has allegedly forbidden several of his subordinates to appear, fearing they will sing a different tune to that which they sang for the benefit of the criminal investigators.
Three other witnesses have also changed their testimony upon cross-examination in court and no longer consider Lutsenko to be the perpetrator of crimes against their person.
According to 'Unian', Lutsenko openly declared in a statement in the courtroom that presiding judge Serhiy Vovk was being blackmailed. He said this without any challenge from the bench. "Your honour, two criminal cases have been opened against you. You and me are the same. The same dirty game is being played against you as against me. How are we to going to continue this process?"
'Unian' article concludes: "We all understand that today this does not depend upon the will of the peaceloving Vovk...[As] in [all] the political trials taking place in Ukraine today, the judges are far from making the decisions. More accurately - they decide nothing at all."
Lutsenko remains in custody after 8 months behind bars. Tymoshenko is, at time of writing, still being denied access to her own personal physician, even though she claims to be suffering from a mysterious ailment, possibly caused by ingestion of rat-poison?
A number of 'victims' of his so-called crimes have failed to turn up in court. The current minister of internal affairs, Anatoliy Mohylyov, has allegedly forbidden several of his subordinates to appear, fearing they will sing a different tune to that which they sang for the benefit of the criminal investigators.
Three other witnesses have also changed their testimony upon cross-examination in court and no longer consider Lutsenko to be the perpetrator of crimes against their person.
According to 'Unian', Lutsenko openly declared in a statement in the courtroom that presiding judge Serhiy Vovk was being blackmailed. He said this without any challenge from the bench. "Your honour, two criminal cases have been opened against you. You and me are the same. The same dirty game is being played against you as against me. How are we to going to continue this process?"
'Unian' article concludes: "We all understand that today this does not depend upon the will of the peaceloving Vovk...[As] in [all] the political trials taking place in Ukraine today, the judges are far from making the decisions. More accurately - they decide nothing at all."
Lutsenko remains in custody after 8 months behind bars. Tymoshenko is, at time of writing, still being denied access to her own personal physician, even though she claims to be suffering from a mysterious ailment, possibly caused by ingestion of rat-poison?
Thursday, August 18, 2011
All liars
The Kremlin accuses Yushchenko of lying from the witness box today at the trial of Yulia Tymoshenko.
Yesterday minister of fuel and energy Yuriy Boyko certainly lied in the witness box when he laughably claimed he had no relationship to the setting up of 'RosUkrEnergo'. Boyko and RUE are at the heart of the totally corrupt Ukrainian/Russian gas business which has robbed the country's consumers of billions of dollars.
A portion of the loot, has, almost certainly, funded Yanukovych's and Party of Regions' election campaign costs. Much cheaper though to wipe out your political opponents by locking them up in jail.
Yuriy Shelyazhenko, in his 'U.P' blog posts a large spread from Gazprom's September 2004 in-house magazine. The article leaves no doubt that the creation of this company was part of an agreement between 'Gazprom' and Naftohaz Ukrainy' signed by Gazprom's Alexei Miller the-then Naftohaz chairman, Yuriy Boyko .
The article declares: "From January 2005 to 2028 'RosUkrEnergo' will sell gas to 'Naftohaz Ukrainy'", and claims the agreement could be called, "without exaggeration, historical"..
Tymoshenko has of course, been trying to eliminate RUE for years..
Yesterday minister of fuel and energy Yuriy Boyko certainly lied in the witness box when he laughably claimed he had no relationship to the setting up of 'RosUkrEnergo'. Boyko and RUE are at the heart of the totally corrupt Ukrainian/Russian gas business which has robbed the country's consumers of billions of dollars.
A portion of the loot, has, almost certainly, funded Yanukovych's and Party of Regions' election campaign costs. Much cheaper though to wipe out your political opponents by locking them up in jail.
Yuriy Shelyazhenko, in his 'U.P' blog posts a large spread from Gazprom's September 2004 in-house magazine. The article leaves no doubt that the creation of this company was part of an agreement between 'Gazprom' and Naftohaz Ukrainy' signed by Gazprom's Alexei Miller the-then Naftohaz chairman, Yuriy Boyko .
The article declares: "From January 2005 to 2028 'RosUkrEnergo' will sell gas to 'Naftohaz Ukrainy'", and claims the agreement could be called, "without exaggeration, historical"..
Tymoshenko has of course, been trying to eliminate RUE for years..
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
EU/Ukraine agreements in peril
A thoroughly damning assessment of Ukraine's legal system and its political puppetmasters by The Danish Helsinki Committee for Human Rights, entitled: "Second Preliminary Report based on the investigations and trials against former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, former acting Minister of Defence Valeriy Ivashchenko, former Minister of Interior Yurij Lutsenko and former First Deputy Minister of Justice Yevhen Korniychuk", can be read here
Today's 'Financial Times' carries a story about the proposed signing free trade and association agreements with the EU, entitled "Ukraine poses dilemma for Brussels"
The article ends with a quote from Nico Lange, head of the Ukraine office of Germany’s Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung foundation,
"What signal do you send if you include a country into this new form of co-operation when it is one of the worst worldwide in terms of business climate, corruption, has significant problems with democracy and rule of law, and is persecuting the former government?.. What signal does this send to northern Africa or Belarus?"
My guesss now is, on the balance of probabilities, EU countries will kick these agreements 'into the long grass'. Germany and France in particular, have had enough of paying the bills for more fiscally profligate countries in the Eurozone. Who needs extra burdens right now?
Today's 'Financial Times' carries a story about the proposed signing free trade and association agreements with the EU, entitled "Ukraine poses dilemma for Brussels"
The article ends with a quote from Nico Lange, head of the Ukraine office of Germany’s Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung foundation,
"What signal do you send if you include a country into this new form of co-operation when it is one of the worst worldwide in terms of business climate, corruption, has significant problems with democracy and rule of law, and is persecuting the former government?.. What signal does this send to northern Africa or Belarus?"
My guesss now is, on the balance of probabilities, EU countries will kick these agreements 'into the long grass'. Germany and France in particular, have had enough of paying the bills for more fiscally profligate countries in the Eurozone. Who needs extra burdens right now?
Saturday, August 13, 2011
Yet more criticism of Yanukovych
From the new French 'Altantico' news website, [known for exclusive scoops] an op-ed piece entitled: "A strong smell of gas behind the Tymoshenko trial":
"[Yulia Tymoshenko], the former prime minister in 2009 put an end to the role of RosUkrEnergo as an intermediary in the gas sector, thus closing the valve feeding the Russian Semyon Mogilevych and the Party of Regions of President Viktor Yanukovych via Dmytro Firtash and Ivan Fursin.... The prosecutor handling the case, said on his appointment in November 2010 that his sole mission was to serve the president, and the judges have also repeatedly been praised by Viktor Yanukovych.
Europe would be wrong to take these cases lightly. Behind this case not only is the political and democratic future of a country in the immediate vicinity being played out, but also energy issues affecting European supply (Ukraine is a major transit country for Russian gas) and also important criminal issues (Semyon Mogilevich has been sought by the FBI for several years).
Diplomatic condemnations cannot be sufficient, we must now move to sanctions."
Yanukovych clearly thinks that he can 'ride out' the 'shit-storm' directed at him from western politicians and the western media, but it is difficult how. There surely will be a price to pay.
How ironic that, as 'Yulia Mostova of 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' in a brilliant article points out, opinion polls reveal that although Yanukovych is still running ahead of Tymoshenko [by 56% against 44%], against any other candidate, in a straight head-to-head run-off, Yanukovych would lose by a similar margin.
In other words, by eliminating Tymoshenko from any contest he may well be sealing his own fate...
"[Yulia Tymoshenko], the former prime minister in 2009 put an end to the role of RosUkrEnergo as an intermediary in the gas sector, thus closing the valve feeding the Russian Semyon Mogilevych and the Party of Regions of President Viktor Yanukovych via Dmytro Firtash and Ivan Fursin.... The prosecutor handling the case, said on his appointment in November 2010 that his sole mission was to serve the president, and the judges have also repeatedly been praised by Viktor Yanukovych.
Europe would be wrong to take these cases lightly. Behind this case not only is the political and democratic future of a country in the immediate vicinity being played out, but also energy issues affecting European supply (Ukraine is a major transit country for Russian gas) and also important criminal issues (Semyon Mogilevich has been sought by the FBI for several years).
Diplomatic condemnations cannot be sufficient, we must now move to sanctions."
Yanukovych clearly thinks that he can 'ride out' the 'shit-storm' directed at him from western politicians and the western media, but it is difficult how. There surely will be a price to pay.
How ironic that, as 'Yulia Mostova of 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' in a brilliant article points out, opinion polls reveal that although Yanukovych is still running ahead of Tymoshenko [by 56% against 44%], against any other candidate, in a straight head-to-head run-off, Yanukovych would lose by a similar margin.
In other words, by eliminating Tymoshenko from any contest he may well be sealing his own fate...
Thursday, August 11, 2011
F.A.Z blasts Ukrainian authorities
One of Germany's premier newspapers, 'Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung' today carries an op-ed piece by Konrad Schuller calling for the EU to impose sanctions against individual Ukrainian government officials and to disrupt the Association Agreement negotiations..
"One thing is clear: the signing of an agreement celebrated with champagne and salmon canapés, while one Ukrainian opposition politician after another disappears behind prison walls, would be a sad comedy."
The 'Economist' calls president Yanukovych: "thuggish, vengeful and guided by the codes of the underworld."
The detention of Tymosenko last week has raised criticism of Ukraine's leader to a new level.
"One thing is clear: the signing of an agreement celebrated with champagne and salmon canapés, while one Ukrainian opposition politician after another disappears behind prison walls, would be a sad comedy."
The 'Economist' calls president Yanukovych: "thuggish, vengeful and guided by the codes of the underworld."
The detention of Tymosenko last week has raised criticism of Ukraine's leader to a new level.
Tuesday, August 09, 2011
Prejudicial statement from PoR morons
This from a highly prejudicial statement [in goofy English], on the Party of Regions' website:
"Tymoshenko is being judged because in 2009 she forged the documents of national importance - the directives of the Cabinet of Ministers on negotiations with the Russian party and signing the contract on gas supply and transit of gas from the Russian Federation. In these directives the government, accountable to people, determines: what gas price Ukraine can agree, what price on gas transit through its territory should be, what volumes of gas Ukraine is planning to consume and so on.
When making a faked document ex-prime minister knew that the Ukrainian government had refused to support the content of written by her directives, because the conditions of gas supply and transit, determined there, were extremely disadvantageous and discriminatory for Ukraine.
However, according to Tymoshenko’s instructions, the forged document titled "Directives", was produced, signed personally by her and a seal of the Cabinet of Ministers was attached.
Using this fake, Tymoshenko made the leaders of "Naftogaz Ukraine" to sign the agreement, providing dramatic, unjustified increase in gas prices since 2010 and onerous conditions, depriving Ukraine for 10 years of the possibility to cancel the agreement."
Prejudicial or what? Where is the big word "allegedly"?
A reminder to whoever wrote the above: the court decides what was fake what was not - not PoR propagandists.
No wonder western observers call the Tymoshenko trial a farce, a bad joke, a pantomime, etc. etc..
"Tymoshenko is being judged because in 2009 she forged the documents of national importance - the directives of the Cabinet of Ministers on negotiations with the Russian party and signing the contract on gas supply and transit of gas from the Russian Federation. In these directives the government, accountable to people, determines: what gas price Ukraine can agree, what price on gas transit through its territory should be, what volumes of gas Ukraine is planning to consume and so on.
When making a faked document ex-prime minister knew that the Ukrainian government had refused to support the content of written by her directives, because the conditions of gas supply and transit, determined there, were extremely disadvantageous and discriminatory for Ukraine.
However, according to Tymoshenko’s instructions, the forged document titled "Directives", was produced, signed personally by her and a seal of the Cabinet of Ministers was attached.
Using this fake, Tymoshenko made the leaders of "Naftogaz Ukraine" to sign the agreement, providing dramatic, unjustified increase in gas prices since 2010 and onerous conditions, depriving Ukraine for 10 years of the possibility to cancel the agreement."
Prejudicial or what? Where is the big word "allegedly"?
A reminder to whoever wrote the above: the court decides what was fake what was not - not PoR propagandists.
No wonder western observers call the Tymoshenko trial a farce, a bad joke, a pantomime, etc. etc..
Sunday, August 07, 2011
Tymoshenko's defensive errors
Sober analysis of Yulia Tymoshenko's trial is provided by Tetyana Montyan in her latest 'U.P' blog.
She considers Tymoshenko, from the very beginning did not seek the assistance the most professional defence councillors available, with whom she would have to be absolutely open and honest, but used inexperienced lawyers to merely act as pawns and be replaced as the trial progressed, in order to drag out proceedings.
Montyan says the reason for Tymoshenko's mistrust of lawyers is the betrayal of former her legal advisor, Andriy Portnov, whom she took to Moscow to arrange the allegedly dodgy gas deal in 2009. It was he who provided flimsy legal cover for the deal, part of which was the approproriation of billions of dollars worth of gas that may or may not have legally belonged to RosUkrEnergo, possibly in exchange for the promise of a top job for Portnov if Tymoshenko became president. [How often does betrayal figure in Ukrainian politics and history?]
Nevertheless, Montyan suggests that Portnov, a competent lawyer, would almost certainly have pointed out to Tymoshenko the possible dangers of her actions at that time.
But afterwards he falls out with Tymoshenko and switches sides, going to Regiony to 'spill the beans'. It is now Portnov who, behind the scenes, is organising the entire case against Tymoshenko.
Motyan considers Tymoshenko's behaviour in court to be self-destructive, virtually wiping out any chance of benign end, [dare I say soft landing?] to the trial. A competent defence adviser would have presented her case, particularly to the outside world, much better, and would have had a firm grasp of her opponents' position, tactics and strategy, having detailed knowledge from Tymoshenko of what Portnov knows. A competent defence adviser would have been using all inside channels available to come some kind of deal with her PoR opponents, [plea-bargaining or similar I suppose], if at all possible, in order to save face for both sides. Working toward a compromise should never be abandoned..[And Tymoshenko has done this before with PoR, as everyone knows..]
"So, she made a strategic mistake: relying on illusory political perspectives on one hand, and having lost confidence in lawyers on the other, she decided not to defend her flanks with all her might, not to oppose her enemies with the most appropriate weaponry available, not to seek the best way out of this situation - but just act the fool and turn the court proceedings into comic farce.."
Even though her enemies have staged this trial with the intention of neutralising and destroying Tymoshenko as the leader of the opposition, and Ukraine's judicial system has been exposed as a joke, LEvko fears there is some truth in what Montyan says.
She considers Tymoshenko, from the very beginning did not seek the assistance the most professional defence councillors available, with whom she would have to be absolutely open and honest, but used inexperienced lawyers to merely act as pawns and be replaced as the trial progressed, in order to drag out proceedings.
Montyan says the reason for Tymoshenko's mistrust of lawyers is the betrayal of former her legal advisor, Andriy Portnov, whom she took to Moscow to arrange the allegedly dodgy gas deal in 2009. It was he who provided flimsy legal cover for the deal, part of which was the approproriation of billions of dollars worth of gas that may or may not have legally belonged to RosUkrEnergo, possibly in exchange for the promise of a top job for Portnov if Tymoshenko became president. [How often does betrayal figure in Ukrainian politics and history?]
Nevertheless, Montyan suggests that Portnov, a competent lawyer, would almost certainly have pointed out to Tymoshenko the possible dangers of her actions at that time.
But afterwards he falls out with Tymoshenko and switches sides, going to Regiony to 'spill the beans'. It is now Portnov who, behind the scenes, is organising the entire case against Tymoshenko.
Motyan considers Tymoshenko's behaviour in court to be self-destructive, virtually wiping out any chance of benign end, [dare I say soft landing?] to the trial. A competent defence adviser would have presented her case, particularly to the outside world, much better, and would have had a firm grasp of her opponents' position, tactics and strategy, having detailed knowledge from Tymoshenko of what Portnov knows. A competent defence adviser would have been using all inside channels available to come some kind of deal with her PoR opponents, [plea-bargaining or similar I suppose], if at all possible, in order to save face for both sides. Working toward a compromise should never be abandoned..[And Tymoshenko has done this before with PoR, as everyone knows..]
"So, she made a strategic mistake: relying on illusory political perspectives on one hand, and having lost confidence in lawyers on the other, she decided not to defend her flanks with all her might, not to oppose her enemies with the most appropriate weaponry available, not to seek the best way out of this situation - but just act the fool and turn the court proceedings into comic farce.."
Even though her enemies have staged this trial with the intention of neutralising and destroying Tymoshenko as the leader of the opposition, and Ukraine's judicial system has been exposed as a joke, LEvko fears there is some truth in what Montyan says.
Azarov came to gloat
It was inevitable that when PM Mykola Azarov was surprisingly called as a witness for the prosecution on Friday verbal mudslinging would ensue between him and Yulia Tymoshenko, who was conducting her own defence. These two have been calling one another thieves and corruptioneers in public for years.
Why was he called? He was not a member of the Tymoshenko cabinet at the time she allegedly committed the crimes of which she is accused, and he is not an authority on legal aspects of chains of command, government procedure, or areas of responsibility of Ukraine's elected officials.
My hunch is he invited himself into the courtroom for the basest of reasons: in order to humiliate: 'bad-mouth', and gloat over Tymoshenko in her predicament. He even brought his own cameramen to record the event, even though he cannot have been unaware video-recording of trial proceedings had been banned by the judge more than two weeks ago. [Indignant journalists eventually forced Azarov's camera team to leave the courtroom.]
Another of Tymoshenko's most hated foes, Minister for Energy Yuriy Boyko, was lurking in the court corridors, no doubt waiting to 'give her a good kicking' from the witness box too. As this excellent piece from 'Kyiv Post' points out, the role of cash-siphon RosUkrEnergo is at the heart of this trial so it was no coincidence that the day after RUE reared it ugly head again in the courtroom, when Yuriy Yekhanurov gave evidence, Tymoshenko was arrested. She has, of course been striving to rid the country of the parasitic RUE for many years.
The prosecutors have called a total of 38 witnesses. The defence, to date, have only been permitted to call 2, even though they requested 30 present themselves in the court. These were to include members of Tymoshenko's cabinet of ministers, state gas company NaftoHaz Ukrainy and UkrTransHaz officials, as well as representatives from NaftoHaz's auditors, the multinational Ernst and Young.
Tymoshenko's legal councillors throughout the trial have been given risibly little time to prepare their case. There have been days when the case proceeded even though neither defendant nor her council were present.
By western standards the trial has every appearance of a total 'stitch-up' even though everyone knew scrutiny would be intense, hence the deluge of criticism from abroad. Western observers expected court procedures and protocol to be impeccably adhered so that any verdict could be presented as fair and 'above board'. What they got was 'bun-fight'.
The trial recommences tomorrow and still has quite a few days to run. Interest will be even higher than before.
The criticism by Ukraine's prospective European partners has now been so vociferous and wide-ranging that if Tymoshenko continues to be imprisoned a price will eventually have to be paid.
Why was he called? He was not a member of the Tymoshenko cabinet at the time she allegedly committed the crimes of which she is accused, and he is not an authority on legal aspects of chains of command, government procedure, or areas of responsibility of Ukraine's elected officials.
My hunch is he invited himself into the courtroom for the basest of reasons: in order to humiliate: 'bad-mouth', and gloat over Tymoshenko in her predicament. He even brought his own cameramen to record the event, even though he cannot have been unaware video-recording of trial proceedings had been banned by the judge more than two weeks ago. [Indignant journalists eventually forced Azarov's camera team to leave the courtroom.]
Another of Tymoshenko's most hated foes, Minister for Energy Yuriy Boyko, was lurking in the court corridors, no doubt waiting to 'give her a good kicking' from the witness box too. As this excellent piece from 'Kyiv Post' points out, the role of cash-siphon RosUkrEnergo is at the heart of this trial so it was no coincidence that the day after RUE reared it ugly head again in the courtroom, when Yuriy Yekhanurov gave evidence, Tymoshenko was arrested. She has, of course been striving to rid the country of the parasitic RUE for many years.
The prosecutors have called a total of 38 witnesses. The defence, to date, have only been permitted to call 2, even though they requested 30 present themselves in the court. These were to include members of Tymoshenko's cabinet of ministers, state gas company NaftoHaz Ukrainy and UkrTransHaz officials, as well as representatives from NaftoHaz's auditors, the multinational Ernst and Young.
Tymoshenko's legal councillors throughout the trial have been given risibly little time to prepare their case. There have been days when the case proceeded even though neither defendant nor her council were present.
By western standards the trial has every appearance of a total 'stitch-up' even though everyone knew scrutiny would be intense, hence the deluge of criticism from abroad. Western observers expected court procedures and protocol to be impeccably adhered so that any verdict could be presented as fair and 'above board'. What they got was 'bun-fight'.
The trial recommences tomorrow and still has quite a few days to run. Interest will be even higher than before.
The criticism by Ukraine's prospective European partners has now been so vociferous and wide-ranging that if Tymoshenko continues to be imprisoned a price will eventually have to be paid.
Saturday, August 06, 2011
Why was Tymoshenko locked up today?
So Yulia Tymshenko has been arrested - generating quite a reaction...
After weeks of 'dissing' the court, why now?
Yesterday, Yuriy Yekhanurov, who replaced Tymoshenko as PM after she was sacked by Yushchenko in 2005, was cross-examined by her for several hours in court.
Today the current PM, Mykola Azarov was getting the same treatment. Despite her best efforts, Tymoshenko was continuously prevented from quizzing these two characters about infamous gas intermediary RosUkrEnergo.
In January 2006 Yekhanurov signed a murky gas deal with Gazprom involving RUE which, at the time, even foremost experts in the field could not untangle and interpret. In April last year Azarov did a shady deal with Putin on gas - most controversially linking the price of gas to the lease on the Sevastopol naval base used by the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
Minister of Energy, Yuriy Boyko, a former head of NaftoHaz Ukrainy closely associated with the introduction of RUE into the Russian/Ukrainian gas business, was also about to be called as a witness today. He was pelted by Tymoshenko supporters outside the courthouse.
My guess is these people, Tymoshenko's biggest political opponents, had had enough of the spotlight being thrown on RUE. Hence the court's decision to 'pay back' Tymoshenko and imprison her.
Because she is accused of signing a gas contract in 2009 that was allegedly financially harmful to Ukraine's interests, it was surely not unreasonable for her to bring up the historical background to this deal in the courtroom, to shed some light on why she struck the deal she did.
She is also accused of abuse of power linked to the signing of these 2009 gas contracts, but, most unfairly, her requests for impartial experts in constitutional and government law, and NaftoHaz's external auditors familiar with the company's finances to be called as witnesses for the defence, were denied yesterday. However her biggest political opponents, who inevitably would give biassed evidence, were called. Now she has to pay the price..
'Front Zmin' leader Arseniy Yatsenyuk, until now lukewarm in his support of Tymoshenko, was swift and forthright in his condemnation of today's arrest. "A rubicon has been crossed, democracy has been terminated..." he says.
Today was certainly a watershed...the attitude of European politicians to Ukraine's current authorities will now radically, and probably irreversibly, change..
p.s. Tymoshenko has found a powerful ally - World Heavyweight Boxing Champion Vitaliy Klichko who has interrupted his training and returned to Kyiv at this moment of crisis. He claims Ukraine's democratic gains since independence 20 years ago are at risk..
After weeks of 'dissing' the court, why now?
Yesterday, Yuriy Yekhanurov, who replaced Tymoshenko as PM after she was sacked by Yushchenko in 2005, was cross-examined by her for several hours in court.
Today the current PM, Mykola Azarov was getting the same treatment. Despite her best efforts, Tymoshenko was continuously prevented from quizzing these two characters about infamous gas intermediary RosUkrEnergo.
In January 2006 Yekhanurov signed a murky gas deal with Gazprom involving RUE which, at the time, even foremost experts in the field could not untangle and interpret. In April last year Azarov did a shady deal with Putin on gas - most controversially linking the price of gas to the lease on the Sevastopol naval base used by the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
Minister of Energy, Yuriy Boyko, a former head of NaftoHaz Ukrainy closely associated with the introduction of RUE into the Russian/Ukrainian gas business, was also about to be called as a witness today. He was pelted by Tymoshenko supporters outside the courthouse.
My guess is these people, Tymoshenko's biggest political opponents, had had enough of the spotlight being thrown on RUE. Hence the court's decision to 'pay back' Tymoshenko and imprison her.
Because she is accused of signing a gas contract in 2009 that was allegedly financially harmful to Ukraine's interests, it was surely not unreasonable for her to bring up the historical background to this deal in the courtroom, to shed some light on why she struck the deal she did.
She is also accused of abuse of power linked to the signing of these 2009 gas contracts, but, most unfairly, her requests for impartial experts in constitutional and government law, and NaftoHaz's external auditors familiar with the company's finances to be called as witnesses for the defence, were denied yesterday. However her biggest political opponents, who inevitably would give biassed evidence, were called. Now she has to pay the price..
'Front Zmin' leader Arseniy Yatsenyuk, until now lukewarm in his support of Tymoshenko, was swift and forthright in his condemnation of today's arrest. "A rubicon has been crossed, democracy has been terminated..." he says.
Today was certainly a watershed...the attitude of European politicians to Ukraine's current authorities will now radically, and probably irreversibly, change..
p.s. Tymoshenko has found a powerful ally - World Heavyweight Boxing Champion Vitaliy Klichko who has interrupted his training and returned to Kyiv at this moment of crisis. He claims Ukraine's democratic gains since independence 20 years ago are at risk..
Wednesday, August 03, 2011
Will instinct of self-preservation amongst Ukraine's ruling elite now kick in?
Oleksiy Krasnopyorov has posted an interesting blog about Ukraine's ruling elites and the effect Yulia Tymoshenko's trial is having on them.
This elite has always been a rather amorphous bunch; many have switched from political party to political party, [and even back again] whenever this suits their business and personal interests. They may 'kick lumps' out of one another on political talk shows or in parliament, but can be seen together later in convivial conversation at swanky restaurants and parties. Their business interests may sometimes clash, and sometimes coincide. They drive the same expensive automobiles and wear the same elite brand clothes. In the past, unwritten rules of mutual conduct have generally been observed.
With the start of legal precedings against Tymoshenko matters have changed.
Krasnopyorov notes that the evidence provided by witnesses for the prosecution during the trial, to date has, curiously, been neutral or perhaps even supportive of Tymoshenko's case, [in contrast to their previous testimony to prosecutors]. He immediately discounts honourable or noble motives and suggest another possible reason.
He says that the instinct of self-preservation amongst the "political class' has come to the fore. They are beginning to realise that if Tymoshenko, the leading opponent of the current president and administration is imprisoned, no-one can be absolutely sure the same fate does not await them in the future. If Tymoshenko, one of the biggest beasts in the jungle, can be brought down, it would be child's playto 'take out' anyone else in the months and years to come.
If Tymoshenko is imprisoned the entire political class will become compliant and fearful, demotivated from voicing any alternatives to policies proposed by the ruling powers.
The situation right now shows fear already exists and is widespread, so the current regime has already partially achieved its aim, claims Krasnopyorov.
We can only speculate which emotion is the stronger: banal fear, or the instinct of self-preservation. The political-legal realities of the circumstances in which we will live in the near future depend on this, he concludes.
This elite has always been a rather amorphous bunch; many have switched from political party to political party, [and even back again] whenever this suits their business and personal interests. They may 'kick lumps' out of one another on political talk shows or in parliament, but can be seen together later in convivial conversation at swanky restaurants and parties. Their business interests may sometimes clash, and sometimes coincide. They drive the same expensive automobiles and wear the same elite brand clothes. In the past, unwritten rules of mutual conduct have generally been observed.
With the start of legal precedings against Tymoshenko matters have changed.
Krasnopyorov notes that the evidence provided by witnesses for the prosecution during the trial, to date has, curiously, been neutral or perhaps even supportive of Tymoshenko's case, [in contrast to their previous testimony to prosecutors]. He immediately discounts honourable or noble motives and suggest another possible reason.
He says that the instinct of self-preservation amongst the "political class' has come to the fore. They are beginning to realise that if Tymoshenko, the leading opponent of the current president and administration is imprisoned, no-one can be absolutely sure the same fate does not await them in the future. If Tymoshenko, one of the biggest beasts in the jungle, can be brought down, it would be child's playto 'take out' anyone else in the months and years to come.
If Tymoshenko is imprisoned the entire political class will become compliant and fearful, demotivated from voicing any alternatives to policies proposed by the ruling powers.
The situation right now shows fear already exists and is widespread, so the current regime has already partially achieved its aim, claims Krasnopyorov.
We can only speculate which emotion is the stronger: banal fear, or the instinct of self-preservation. The political-legal realities of the circumstances in which we will live in the near future depend on this, he concludes.
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