Thursday, July 12, 2007

An interesting O.P.

Latest O.P. in today's 'Korespondent' has PoR at 26.2%, BYuT at 23.1% and the newly formed pro-presidential NU-NS 'megabloc at 13%. LEvko thinks this OP should be accompanied with a 'health warning'. Nevertheless, if others come in at anything like this, it may explain why Rinat Akhmetov is not putting all of his eggs in one basket, and perhaps indicates Yushchenko's wavering may be harming the cause of the 'NUNSivtsi'.

The Communists would obtain 2.7% of votes cast and fail to overcome the 3% threshold; remaining parties would receive even less votes that the Commies. Rather worryingly for PoR, according to the poll, a majority of the 'undecided's' are wavering between BYuT and NUNS. But as they say, 'one swallow doesn't make a summer'...

The pro-orange 5th TV channel has a straw poll which invites its website visitors to register who they think will be the next PM of Ukraine. At the last count Viktor Fyodorovich receives 80 votes, Yulka 422, Moroz 3, Rinat Akmetov 23, others 81 - not scientific, but interesting nevertheless - where are Lutsenko, Kyrylenko, Yekhanurov and other NUNSivtsi? Are they really so unattractive? [As a neutral observer, LEvko did not vote. Come on you PoR supporters, where are you?]

After the brouhaha several months ago, affairs at the Consitutional Court have slipped off the media radar, but today, no doubt after a lot of behind the scenes negotiation, a new CC chairman has been appointed by the court itself. An earlier attempt on 22nd June failed.

I've loosely paraphrased the following from 'Gazeta po Kiyevski':

"The election of the head of the CC was surrounded by a halo of secrecy..while some politicians said the the selection procedure for the leader of the CC should be transparent and candidatures openly discussed, voting was strictly formal. Agreements took place outside of the court's walls...As with all appointments, choosing the head of the CC became a subject of compromise between the [governing] coalition and the president.

The man elected to chair the CC was Andriy Stryzhak, who had been appointed onto the CC on the Congress of Judge's quota. [In accordance with the constitution, the VR, the president, and the Congress of Judges, each appoint 6 CC judges to the 18-chair CC]

He comes from the Transcarpathia oblast and is linked to the once-powerful SDPU(o). His name has appeared on the 'black-lists' of PORA and he has been accused of misusing authority and his official (state) position but nothing big has ever 'stuck'.

Observers consider the appointment a compromise made in an attempt to give the CC a semblance of dignity after the 'stink around Stanik' scandal, and other recent scandals involving CC judges. The agreement to promote Strizhak is strictly temporary - the CC will not be making any decisions before the September 30th VR elections, and after this 'cadre rotations' are likely.


Anonymous said...

Oh, please ----- like PoR supporters would go anywhere near 5th TV Channel!?! or have the internet access to be able to do so? They have turned on and tuned out along time ago.

LEvko said...

Apologies for my attempt at irony..
But internet access is widespread in all parts of Ukraine..esp amongst the young.

Anonymous said...

You are making the same mistake as many other commentators on the polls.

First you need to look at a series of different polls to see the oerall trend and not rely on the latest poll.

More importantly you need to consider the participation when determining who will and who will not exceed the 3% threshold. a poll showing 2.8% when factored into a 85% participation rate exceeds the 3% threshold which is calculated on the 3% of those participating in the election.

The other factor that needs to be considered is the possible alliance between other minor partitas. it is better to be elected then left on the scrap heap. If minor parties and reach some common ground and agreement on issues such as support for a governing coalition and monetary bills then they could also increase the chances of minor parties being elected.

We will know until the close of the party list registration what the likely outcome will be.