Monday, April 06, 2009

Early pres and parliamentary elections?

Viktor Yanukovych has supported president Yushchenko's call for joint early presidential and parliamentary elections.

On April 1st, the Verkhovna Rada voted, by a massive majority, for the subsequent presidential elections to be held on October 25th.

During the 'Shuster-Live' TV debate, mentioned in my previous blog, many arguments were put forward criticising the barmy idea of joint early elections at a time of the current global economic crisis which impacting so hard on Ukraine.

The president can hardly muster a dozen or more NUNS parliamentary deputies to support his cause. If he wants presidential elections before the October 25th, he should resign from his post first to force such early elections.

PM Tymoshenko easily survived a parliamentary vote of no confidence just a few weeks ago. There are no legitimate reasons for her to quit, or for early VR elections to take place.
At the end of the 'Shuster-Live' show the supposedly politically balanced audience, having heard all of the arguments, were asked: 'What kind of early elections do you support?'

The responses were:

54% Do not support [early elections]
23% Combined Parliamentary and Presidential
22% Presidential only
1% Parliamentary only

Early elections? The president cannot be serious.

'Segodnya' quotes a BYuT spokesman who speculates that early joint elections would give the president a place in the parliament after he loses the presidential elections, probably in a coalition with PoR.

Oh, and the dismissal of a Tymoshenko goverment would mean the freeing up of the 11BnCM of gas "commandeered" by the gov. from Firtash's RUE...the president needs all the help he can get to cling to any future political career...

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

In 2007 Yushchenko rejected any proposal to hold simultaneous Presidential and Parliamentary elections, at the time Ukraine was facing a seven month internal political frozen conflict. A conflict brought on by a President whose actions where dictatorial and not democratic in nature, design and its implementation.

So what is different now then in 2007. Why is simultaneous elections right now but not then.

The main difference is that Yushchenko's term of office has come to an end. He will not be re-elected. Yushchenko's term of office has been a complete disaster, lost opportunity and a constant campaign of betrayal after deception on Yushchenko's part.

Yushchenko having betrayed Ukraine and those who support him want to now seek revenge. Instead of blaming Yulia Tymoshenko for his failed Presidential campaign the President needs to look not further then his own office.

Yes Ukraine should have had simultaneous elections back in 2007. Ukraine's new constitution should include provision that if the head of state seeks to dismiss the Parliament without their consent or agreement then both President and Parliament would face re-election together. This would be a strong incentive against the miss-use and abuse of Presidential power.

In 2009 there is no real justification for early Parliamentary elections prior to any reform to Ukraine's constitution.

If as expected the constitution is amended then the time for another round of Parliamentary elections is after the reform not before.

The other issue of concern is the timing of the elections.Who goes first and does the parliament face election during the first round of the presidential ballot or the second round. If the parliament goes first then this has the real implication of effecting the overall result of the second round of Presidential voting.

Tactically the parliament would be better being elected during the second round ballot.

A better option of course would be to abandon the two round ballot system and adopt a singe round preferential voting system.

Such a system would not only save 100's of millions of dollars in direct and indirect costs but would also provide a decisive and definitive result.Ukraine would now the outcome of the election in days not weeks or months is the case with the two round voting system.

Yushchenko is not in a position to dictate terms. It would appear that Party of Regions is in tbe stringest position as they are the deal brokers or deal breakers.

If PoR wants they can force a new round of Parliament voting at a time of their choosing.All they need to do is to resign their mandate on mass and in doing so provide the constitutional ground for the dissolution of Parliament. If they did so prior to June then common sense would dictate that the both President and Parliament face the people together.

It needs to be stated again that such a move prior to any meaningful constitutional reform would not resolve the structural conflict of power between the Office of the President and the peoples democratically elected Parliament.

I see very little change in voter loyalty only greater fragmentation. If you look at the past three elections little change exists and Ukraine remains just a bitterly divided as it was back in 2004. Another example of the failure of Yushchenko's term of office.

They may get rid of Yulia as PM but who would be elected in her place?

God help Ukraine is Yushchenko ever become PM.