Monday, April 13, 2009

President Yushchenko - a hopeless project

I paraphrase below a recent piece in 'Segodnya':

According to frequently heard rumours, Victor Yushchenko will not be standing in the presidential elections. This would be logical, bearing in mind that he, as a 'technical' candidate, would obtain only 2-3% of votes cast. Even with huge efforts by his secretariat, Yushchenko could maybe only gain 8-10% max. so what's the point if there is no prospect of a result?

One politolog is sure Yushchenko will not stand for re-election because no serious businessmen will provide finances for this "hopeless project". The presidential elections will take place in just over half a year's time, the "lame duck" Yuschenko will soon be a "dead duck" - his subordinates are becoming oriented toward new favorites. In a similar situation former president Leonid Kuchma constantly spread rumours of a third presidential term, then about premiership after constitutional reform.

BYuT though, are sceptical about Yushchenko's non-participation in elections. "He will stand as a technical candidate together with Yatsenyuk and Tyahnybok in order to take votes away from Tymoshenko [who counts on the same electorate]," according to one BYuT parliamentary deputy. Before the second round of voting, these candidates will propose their services to the two favorites, Tymoshenko and Yanukovych, in exchange for the premership or ministerial post. It is highly improbable, that the of Yushchenko's or Tyahnybok's entire electorate will heed their call to vote for Yanukovych, but half of voters could follow their suggestions.

However, according to the BYuT 'nardep', if parliamentary elections take place before than presidential elections, Yushchenko's may not participate in the presidential race. In this event, together with Baloha's outfit, he could collect 5% and enter the new rada, after which he would lose interest as a poor showing would underscore the futility of standing for president again.

A 'Segodnya' source in the president's secretariat claims the President has not yet did made up his mind what to do. If Tymoshenko is still premier at the time of the elections, then Yushchenko, most likely, will go for re-election.


elmer said...

well, he's announced for both president and the Parliament.

Kuchma found himself a "soft landing."

Yushchenko appears to be looking for the same thing.

Anonymous said...

Reports published in Kyivpost have indicated that Yushchenko in a final act of betrayal will seek re-election as Ukraine's President. With less then 3% public support Yushenki will not win a second term of office. What little support remains could make the difference between success and failure of alternative candidates.

No doubt Yukia and Yanukoych adw hoping that Yushchenko will renominate.

Under Ukraine's two round Presidential voting system Yushchenko's nomination will only strengthen Yulia's and Yanukovychs campaign and take away from Yatseniuk's chances of surviving the first round of voting.

Another reason why Ukraine would be better off adopting a one round preferential voting system.