Sunday, February 14, 2010

Yanukovych jumps the gun

Viktor Yanukovych was interviewed by a Russian TV channel yesterday.

His blunt pronouncements, particularly on what he considered to be "the path of forced Ukrainianisation" of the Russian-speaking parts of the country, his glib assumption that a new PoR-led parliamentary coalition will soon be formed and on other matters, will make the construction of a new PoR-led coalition in the VR and the eviction of PM Tymoshenko from the cabinet of ministers more difficult.

Even though she is not prepared to recognise Yanukovych as fairly-elected president, she could remain PM for some time to come. Some parts of the NUNS group have already expressed annoyance at Yanukovych's statements.

PoR are a bit 'flat' just one week after the presidential elections. Problem is they don't have a partner in parliament to dump Tymoshenko - they can't do it on their own. NUNS do not have one unchallenged leader with whom they can talk to, and each constituent NUNS party sub-group either wants a 'cut of the action' in order to jump ship, or is not interested in any new coalition. For a new PoR-led coalition to be formed a majority of NUNS deputies have to support any leader willing to 'cross the floor' in parliament. Tymoshenko's stalling maneouvre, challenging the result of last week's voting in the courts, gives time for both PoR and BYuT to gather forces and plan tactics for future battles in the VR.

It would perhaps have been better for Yanukovych to keep his mouth closed a bit least until he had his feet under the presidential desk..

p.s. Tymoshenko is not a parliamentary deputy - if she was evicted from the cabinet of ministers she would not have the valuable platform of parliament to rally her bloc members. [Although Yanukovych is a deputy, he has seldom attended proceedings.]


MD Smith said...

Isn't that only because she had to resign her seat in order to become PM as per the constitution? If she loses the PM's chair a BYuT MP could easily 'resign' and the bloc can select a 'reserve' from it's party list to take up the chair. Well that's my understanding of things

UkrToday said...

Ukraine's Imperative mandate provisions mean that a new coalition can only be formed by agreement of factions (Not individuals or sub factions/parties).

Yanukovych holds the trump card.

In order to be seen effective he must be able to persuade the various players that a broad coalition is their only hope of survival. in the long run it is the interest of every one to play ball.

Yanukovych will find a way to force fresh Parliamentary elections its only a question of when and how not if.

Lytvyn, the communists and Our Ukraine all stand to lose if fresh parliamentary election are held.

The right offer and they will consent. A broad coalition can only be formed with the support of either Bloc Tymoshenko or Our Ukraine-Peoples Self Defense. Without one of theme there is no coalition and a forced dismissal is the only option.

Yanukovych might be able to force a no confidence vote but again Lytvyn, the communist and our Ukraine would be reluctant to have to fight a fresh election so soon after the presidential battle.

Id a vote of no confidence is passed then it is not clear is a new coalition can be constitutionally formed. This would give authority to Yanukovych to instigate an election in April/May. So if a spill is on it is best that the spill comes with an agreement to avoid an election.

If parliament holds its ground then we will see a repeat of 2007 but with more serious economic consequences. A budget is not in place. Yulia will be seen as the main stumbling bloc and a seven month constitutional standoff would not serve anyone well.

Yanukovych can not afford to wait seven more months before he can act. He would be seen as a failure.

Deal or no Deal time.

Deal and avoid an election or no deal and force an election. It will happen sooner rather then later.

Constitutional reform

Tymoshenko may have lost much more then the presidential election.

Her suggestion to start discussions on constitutional reform has come a bit late and she no longer holds a negotiating position. Yanukovych holds all the trump cards and its only a matter of when he plays them.

now that he is in power he might not want to support constitutional reform that would remove his power and authority. However he can not amend Ukraine's Constitution without Tymoshenko's support. (He might be able to bribe/persuade individuals to support reform.

If fresh elections are held then the balance of power could shift once again.

A governing coalition between Party of regions and Tigipko is a real possibility but he will still be short of a constitutional majority.

His best bet at present is to bluff and hold on to the parliament for a little longer. As long as they play ball.

He can wait and spring a trap and lay down the trump card at his won choosing unless pressure to act becomes overwhelming.

The budget and financial stability is a big issue hanging over all heads.

elmer said...

Українці вибрали неграмотного бовдура.

Typical of the confusion in Ukraine - there was a presidential election.

But what's the focus?


Having, or not having, new elections for PARLIAMENT!

One of the "fears" expressed against Tymoshenko taking the presidency is that then "she" would have the powers of the president, with a "friendly" Parliament, which would then lead to "her" dictatorship.

Now, Yanukovych and the Party of Regions appear to be trying to do the very same thing.

Plus - during the campaign, there was much heated discussion about "who would be Prime Minister."

Rather odd, except in bass ackwards Ukraine, of course - because the President no longer has the power to appoint a Prime Minister.

The chess game without rules continues.

And Yanukovych is about to sell Ukraine's gas transit pipeline assets to a consortium including GAZPROM (roosha) - that must be "roosha friendly."

And look who gets a cut of the action to the tune of several billion dollars - FIRTASH, the corrupt Jewish middleman from RosUkrEnergo!

Following Yanukovych’s victory, RosUkrEnergo co-owner and Centragas beneficiary Dmytro Firtash is also laying claim to an ownership stake –hypothetically 9 percent– in Ukraine’s gas transit system, in the event of its being shared out.

blackminorcapullets said...

Do not discount a kiss- and- make- up between Tymoshenko and Yushchenko.