Summary of comments made by Mykola Knyazhitsky, Director-General and a presenter of the TVi television company during a public debate on Ukraine's geopolitical choice:
He was sure the euro-integrational aspirations of Ukraine's current authorities is wholly egotistical in nature, intended to benefit PoR's oligarch sponsors. The desire to co-operate with Europe is driven solely in order to benefit their personal economic schemes, and the values and institutions essential to fully integrate into European society are of no interest to the government or president.
Nevertheless, the time has come for the Ukrainian nation to finally make up its mind. The country must decide whether it wants to live under the paradigm of a Byzantine court, as adopted by modern Russia, or strive to develop a European vector with its values of democracy, freedom and justice.
Before making a final decision, the country should reflect on the fact that there is not one undemocratic country in the EU, and there is not one democratic country in the Customs Union.
So...sukhari*, or oranges for Tymoshenko?
*dried bread crusts.. a reference to going to prison in Russia and Ukraine
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Saturday, September 24, 2011
Ukraine's leading lights try hard in Brussels, but Yanik more interested in the money
From European Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy, Štefan Füle's speech at conference: "Ukraine 20 years on: challenges for the future" European Policy Center Brussels, 21 September 2011
"There has been a lot of good news about Ukraine in the last twenty years. Unfortunately there have also been some difficult moments, which have brought the wrong kind of publicity. We are living through such a moment, and there are some basic problems which all of Ukraine’s key partners want to see addressed. Its ability to successfully overcome these problems would give a strong incentive to further consolidate the rule of law in the entire region. I know that - with the right will -Ukraine can surmount these obstacles, which are creating so many questions right now between us.
As I explained in Yalta, the on-going trials against opposition politicians appear to be politically motivated and damage Ukraine’s reputation. In order to change the negative picture of Ukraine that is emerging, I urged the leaders of Ukraine to work harder to ensure the judiciary’s independence. They need to show that they embrace the values underpinning political association with the EU. They need to convince us that Ukraine is serious about democracy, the rule of law, and that Ukraine is serious about the Association Agreement currently being negotiated with the EU.
The Association Agreement is based on political association. It involves a clear and effective commitment to the core values of democracy, human rights and the rule of law to which Ukraine has committed itself, towards OSCE, the Council of Europe and also the EU. It is a concern in itself that so many opposition figures are now facing legal action. But in addition, legal experts have criticised the conduct of the trials. Judicial processes need to be clearly unbiased, and it goes without saying that defendants should have a fair chance to prepare their cases. A weak, opaque justice system is a worry to all who value human rights and European values. It is also a deterrent for foreign investment since businesses need to be reassured about property rights and the functioning of the Courts.
But this negative development is not irreversible. Through my close contacts with Ukrainian counterparts, I am convinced that the Ukrainian leaders have understood the gravity of the situation, and are able to turn things around, and choose a different track. Ukraine can clearly demonstrate that weak rule of law is a remnant of the past. Ukraine can show that European values are at the heart of its European choice. This involves fair and transparent trials of former opposition leaders. But it also involves beginning serious work on a comprehensive justice reform. This is an ambitious project that requires determination and commitment over many years. The EU stands ready to continue supporting you in this endeavour..."
Also brief 5-minute video here
In her write-up of the event, 'Lyeviy Bereg's' Sonya Koshkina describes the efforts of first vice prime minister responsible for economic development and trade, Andriy Kluyev, as well as those of Petro Poroshenko and Arseniy Yatsenyuk , who try their utmost to put a brave positive spin into their presentations in support of euro-integration.
She says the Party of Regions' oligarchs have long been pro-Europe, but the president was slow to react to BYuT's lobbying in European circles on behalf of Tymoshenko after she was charged. Yanukovych failed to react right up to Independence day, by which time opinion had hardened in Europe that Tymoshenko was indeed being politically persecuted. By that time it was too late to change opinions and now the Europeans will be scrutinising events most carefully and critically before Ukraine's future in Europe is decided.
Koshkina's transcript of Fule's statement at the conference indicates he took a much stronger line, perhaps ad-libbed during his presentation, than that offered in the official print-out above.
Her article ends with rumours that over the last few months, whenever euro-integrational themes have been raised with Yanukovych, his response has been: 'Explain, why is this necessary, personally, to me? What will I have from this? In other words: where's the money?
***
In mafia circles the capo di tutti capi is usually the wealthiest of the bunch. Yanukovych looks down on his cabinet of ministers, on his close business associates and sponsors, and thinks: "These guys, whom I have known for decades, are so much wealthier than me...they owe so much to me...surely in my position I deserve to be up there with them too, no?" Hence the Mezhyhirya's with gold sanitary fittings in the bathrooms, the helicopters, executive jets, hunting lodges...etc."Because I'm worth it?"
"The talent for self-justification is surely the finest flower of human evolution, the greatest achievement of the human brain." [From 'The age of absurdity' by Michael Foley]
LEvko wonders...Did Yanukovych and his close advisers really think Europeans would ratify association and trade agreement deals at a time when Ukraine's opposition leaders were in jail?
"There has been a lot of good news about Ukraine in the last twenty years. Unfortunately there have also been some difficult moments, which have brought the wrong kind of publicity. We are living through such a moment, and there are some basic problems which all of Ukraine’s key partners want to see addressed. Its ability to successfully overcome these problems would give a strong incentive to further consolidate the rule of law in the entire region. I know that - with the right will -Ukraine can surmount these obstacles, which are creating so many questions right now between us.
As I explained in Yalta, the on-going trials against opposition politicians appear to be politically motivated and damage Ukraine’s reputation. In order to change the negative picture of Ukraine that is emerging, I urged the leaders of Ukraine to work harder to ensure the judiciary’s independence. They need to show that they embrace the values underpinning political association with the EU. They need to convince us that Ukraine is serious about democracy, the rule of law, and that Ukraine is serious about the Association Agreement currently being negotiated with the EU.
The Association Agreement is based on political association. It involves a clear and effective commitment to the core values of democracy, human rights and the rule of law to which Ukraine has committed itself, towards OSCE, the Council of Europe and also the EU. It is a concern in itself that so many opposition figures are now facing legal action. But in addition, legal experts have criticised the conduct of the trials. Judicial processes need to be clearly unbiased, and it goes without saying that defendants should have a fair chance to prepare their cases. A weak, opaque justice system is a worry to all who value human rights and European values. It is also a deterrent for foreign investment since businesses need to be reassured about property rights and the functioning of the Courts.
But this negative development is not irreversible. Through my close contacts with Ukrainian counterparts, I am convinced that the Ukrainian leaders have understood the gravity of the situation, and are able to turn things around, and choose a different track. Ukraine can clearly demonstrate that weak rule of law is a remnant of the past. Ukraine can show that European values are at the heart of its European choice. This involves fair and transparent trials of former opposition leaders. But it also involves beginning serious work on a comprehensive justice reform. This is an ambitious project that requires determination and commitment over many years. The EU stands ready to continue supporting you in this endeavour..."
Also brief 5-minute video here
In her write-up of the event, 'Lyeviy Bereg's' Sonya Koshkina describes the efforts of first vice prime minister responsible for economic development and trade, Andriy Kluyev, as well as those of Petro Poroshenko and Arseniy Yatsenyuk , who try their utmost to put a brave positive spin into their presentations in support of euro-integration.
She says the Party of Regions' oligarchs have long been pro-Europe, but the president was slow to react to BYuT's lobbying in European circles on behalf of Tymoshenko after she was charged. Yanukovych failed to react right up to Independence day, by which time opinion had hardened in Europe that Tymoshenko was indeed being politically persecuted. By that time it was too late to change opinions and now the Europeans will be scrutinising events most carefully and critically before Ukraine's future in Europe is decided.
Koshkina's transcript of Fule's statement at the conference indicates he took a much stronger line, perhaps ad-libbed during his presentation, than that offered in the official print-out above.
Her article ends with rumours that over the last few months, whenever euro-integrational themes have been raised with Yanukovych, his response has been: 'Explain, why is this necessary, personally, to me? What will I have from this? In other words: where's the money?
***
In mafia circles the capo di tutti capi is usually the wealthiest of the bunch. Yanukovych looks down on his cabinet of ministers, on his close business associates and sponsors, and thinks: "These guys, whom I have known for decades, are so much wealthier than me...they owe so much to me...surely in my position I deserve to be up there with them too, no?" Hence the Mezhyhirya's with gold sanitary fittings in the bathrooms, the helicopters, executive jets, hunting lodges...etc."Because I'm worth it?"
"The talent for self-justification is surely the finest flower of human evolution, the greatest achievement of the human brain." [From 'The age of absurdity' by Michael Foley]
LEvko wonders...Did Yanukovych and his close advisers really think Europeans would ratify association and trade agreement deals at a time when Ukraine's opposition leaders were in jail?
Thursday, September 22, 2011
Only one choice for Ukraine
I really liked Vitaliy Pornikov's latest analytic article in 'Lyeviy Bereg' so I thought I would [loosely] translate portions:
Winter time has come early to Ukraine. Although it will not be cold for several months we are witnessing the first signs of social unrest at home and tough ultimatums from neighbours abroad...
Europe, and the West in general want little from Viktor Yanukovych - just a bit of sanity.
Our European partners do not want to encroach on the Yanukovych government's authority or on the decision-making mechanisms in the country. In actual fact they have closed their eyes to the constitutional coup which took place after the incumbent won the last presidential election - the Europeans explain all this away as mere growing pains.
But they can not, and will not be able to accept the demonstrative limitations on freedom of speech, and the destruction of the political opposition using judicial levers. We should not have illusions about this.
If the criminal case against Tymoshenko is not terminated the Europeans will not sign anything with Kyiv that would even allow any talk of a conditional presence of Ukraine in the European club. And this is a sound decision on their part, primarily in the interests of Ukraine, and then in the interest of Europe.
Such a decision shows the Ukrainian authorities that if they want to sell the products of local oligarchs in European markets, if it want to crash their cars outside Monte Carlo casinos [as a daughter of one high-up Ukrainian official did recently], and if it wish to continue to sunbathe in the best resorts and rub shoulders in high society circles they will have to give way and stop raping the country over which they have inherited control. This is what they were trying to explain to Yanukovich in Yalta.
And this is precisely what neither Yanukovych nor Ukrainian politicians can understand - that the question of values cannot be compromised, at least not in public.
The people who have to sign agreements with Yanukovych are accountable to their fellow citizens. Elected deputies who have to ratify any agreements in local parliaments are accountable to their constituents and these voters have a clear idea about what is good and what is bad. Europeans have a conscience. That's why what happened at Yalta should be considered a terrible embarrassment for Ukraine.
When European officials were trying to explain to Yanukovych is that on questions of values there cannot be any compromise. Ukrainian policians, who are supposed to be protecting the interests of their European-minded voters, were demanding their Western interlocutors commit political suicide by signing an agreement with a country that ignores the basic values the European Union. This is a clear indication of the political immaturity of Ukraine - its lack of readiness not only to join the EU, but even to get close.
Russia [on the other hand] wants far more from Yanukovich than Europe does - the surrender of the country's economy, its gas transport system, and its strategically important businesses.
Viktor Federovych will not succeed and get Medvedev and Putin to change track. But this certainly does not mean that if Ukraine does not now make any concessions to its European partners and does not 'stumble' into Europe, it will finish up in Russia's 'zone of influence'.
In reality no such 'zone' exists. Russia, cannot come to any agreement, even with its partners in the Customs Union, Belarus and Kazakhstan, so what talk can there be about Ukraine?
Russian zone of influence? It's Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria, but even there Moscow cannot work with the local leaders. And Ukraine is so much bigger.
Russia simply has no money to sponsor Ukraine, so cannot significantly reduce the price of gas.
Yanukovich absolutely does not need to be a Russian governor of Ukraine. He does not have the technical ability to be this, and his oligarchs will oppose any restriction to their possibilities for trade. Then there is the membership of Ukraine in the World Trade Organisation, and Ukrainian authorities indeed want to head in the European direction.
Medvedev and Putin do not understand this. We are fortunate that during a period of absolute weakness amongst the Ukrainian authorities Russia is run by people of an equally poor intellectual potential who sincerely believe that any normal person considers Ukraine to be merely 'a misunderstanding' which should be integrated back into the imperial structure.
So they will not seek compromise with Yanukovych, they will pressurise him and humiliate him, and he, already considering himself to be a tsar, will fly into a rage and not agree to anything, so we should forget about the myth of a choice between Europe and Russia which, supposedly, the Ukrainian authorities have to take.
We should just support the efforts of our European friends who are trying to prevent our country's slide into authoritarian morass. It's as simple as that....
p.s. On Saturday Yanukovych flies to Moscow to try and get a better gas deal - Medvedev is going to play hard-ball and the chances of success for Yanukovych, as stated by Valeriy Portnikov above, are slim. What some have called the 'Russian vacuum cleaner' is getting harder to resist - but closer ties with the EU would have provided a hand-hold.
Now, according to Ukraine's arrogant leaders it is the fault of the Europeans' that things are going wrong there too..
Former President Viktor Yushchenko recently warned in the 'WSJ' that the European Union's reluctance to offer a clear path to membership puts Ukraine at risk of falling into Russia's orbit and style of governance. [Nothing to do then with erosion of democracy and indications of political repression in Ukraine...of course not...not at all...]
Now 'walking disaster' adviser to the President, Hanna Herman believes that the European Union should offer a hand and give Ukraine a clear signal of future EU membership too.
"We see our future in the European home. In the home - not in the entrance hallway. And if our Western partner will not give us a clear signal that the doors to the European lounge are open, we need to think firmly: what we gain from kicking our heels in the hallway? " said Herman.
She added: "..We hope our western partner will give us a hand, and that Ukraine will accept this hand...Ukraine stands before a choice, and from its choice possibly depends all of the future of the geopolitical map of the continent."
She must have had her head up her arse not to have heard the 'clear signals' in Yalta...and perphaps read too many interior design magazines like 'House and Home' on the flight home...
Winter time has come early to Ukraine. Although it will not be cold for several months we are witnessing the first signs of social unrest at home and tough ultimatums from neighbours abroad...
Europe, and the West in general want little from Viktor Yanukovych - just a bit of sanity.
Our European partners do not want to encroach on the Yanukovych government's authority or on the decision-making mechanisms in the country. In actual fact they have closed their eyes to the constitutional coup which took place after the incumbent won the last presidential election - the Europeans explain all this away as mere growing pains.
But they can not, and will not be able to accept the demonstrative limitations on freedom of speech, and the destruction of the political opposition using judicial levers. We should not have illusions about this.
If the criminal case against Tymoshenko is not terminated the Europeans will not sign anything with Kyiv that would even allow any talk of a conditional presence of Ukraine in the European club. And this is a sound decision on their part, primarily in the interests of Ukraine, and then in the interest of Europe.
Such a decision shows the Ukrainian authorities that if they want to sell the products of local oligarchs in European markets, if it want to crash their cars outside Monte Carlo casinos [as a daughter of one high-up Ukrainian official did recently], and if it wish to continue to sunbathe in the best resorts and rub shoulders in high society circles they will have to give way and stop raping the country over which they have inherited control. This is what they were trying to explain to Yanukovich in Yalta.
And this is precisely what neither Yanukovych nor Ukrainian politicians can understand - that the question of values cannot be compromised, at least not in public.
The people who have to sign agreements with Yanukovych are accountable to their fellow citizens. Elected deputies who have to ratify any agreements in local parliaments are accountable to their constituents and these voters have a clear idea about what is good and what is bad. Europeans have a conscience. That's why what happened at Yalta should be considered a terrible embarrassment for Ukraine.
When European officials were trying to explain to Yanukovych is that on questions of values there cannot be any compromise. Ukrainian policians, who are supposed to be protecting the interests of their European-minded voters, were demanding their Western interlocutors commit political suicide by signing an agreement with a country that ignores the basic values the European Union. This is a clear indication of the political immaturity of Ukraine - its lack of readiness not only to join the EU, but even to get close.
Russia [on the other hand] wants far more from Yanukovich than Europe does - the surrender of the country's economy, its gas transport system, and its strategically important businesses.
Viktor Federovych will not succeed and get Medvedev and Putin to change track. But this certainly does not mean that if Ukraine does not now make any concessions to its European partners and does not 'stumble' into Europe, it will finish up in Russia's 'zone of influence'.
In reality no such 'zone' exists. Russia, cannot come to any agreement, even with its partners in the Customs Union, Belarus and Kazakhstan, so what talk can there be about Ukraine?
Russian zone of influence? It's Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria, but even there Moscow cannot work with the local leaders. And Ukraine is so much bigger.
Russia simply has no money to sponsor Ukraine, so cannot significantly reduce the price of gas.
Yanukovich absolutely does not need to be a Russian governor of Ukraine. He does not have the technical ability to be this, and his oligarchs will oppose any restriction to their possibilities for trade. Then there is the membership of Ukraine in the World Trade Organisation, and Ukrainian authorities indeed want to head in the European direction.
Medvedev and Putin do not understand this. We are fortunate that during a period of absolute weakness amongst the Ukrainian authorities Russia is run by people of an equally poor intellectual potential who sincerely believe that any normal person considers Ukraine to be merely 'a misunderstanding' which should be integrated back into the imperial structure.
So they will not seek compromise with Yanukovych, they will pressurise him and humiliate him, and he, already considering himself to be a tsar, will fly into a rage and not agree to anything, so we should forget about the myth of a choice between Europe and Russia which, supposedly, the Ukrainian authorities have to take.
We should just support the efforts of our European friends who are trying to prevent our country's slide into authoritarian morass. It's as simple as that....
p.s. On Saturday Yanukovych flies to Moscow to try and get a better gas deal - Medvedev is going to play hard-ball and the chances of success for Yanukovych, as stated by Valeriy Portnikov above, are slim. What some have called the 'Russian vacuum cleaner' is getting harder to resist - but closer ties with the EU would have provided a hand-hold.
Now, according to Ukraine's arrogant leaders it is the fault of the Europeans' that things are going wrong there too..
Former President Viktor Yushchenko recently warned in the 'WSJ' that the European Union's reluctance to offer a clear path to membership puts Ukraine at risk of falling into Russia's orbit and style of governance. [Nothing to do then with erosion of democracy and indications of political repression in Ukraine...of course not...not at all...]
Now 'walking disaster' adviser to the President, Hanna Herman believes that the European Union should offer a hand and give Ukraine a clear signal of future EU membership too.
"We see our future in the European home. In the home - not in the entrance hallway. And if our Western partner will not give us a clear signal that the doors to the European lounge are open, we need to think firmly: what we gain from kicking our heels in the hallway? " said Herman.
She added: "..We hope our western partner will give us a hand, and that Ukraine will accept this hand...Ukraine stands before a choice, and from its choice possibly depends all of the future of the geopolitical map of the continent."
She must have had her head up her arse not to have heard the 'clear signals' in Yalta...and perphaps read too many interior design magazines like 'House and Home' on the flight home...
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Yanuk could leave Ukraine wandering in the wilderness
Steven Pifer, in an excellent article describes a means of resoving the Tymoshenko problem:
"Does Yanukovych now get it? Maybe. His answer to the Tymoshenko question [at the Yalta European Strategy conference] - which was carefully worded and most likely thought through in advance - opened a door to a possible solution by noting that the Rada (Ukraine’s parliament) will examine certain provisions of the criminal code and may decide to remove them. Rada deputies have already proposed dropping the law that is the basis for the charges against Tymoshenko.
This could offer an elegant way out of the mess. If the Rada removes the relevant provision from the criminal code, it would eliminate the grounds for the Tymoshenko trial. Ukrainian analysts and Western diplomats at the Yalta conference expressed some optimism that the door to a solution might now be open—though one skeptic observed that the door had opened to a long corridor. All politics in Ukraine are transactional.
Tymoshenko’s release certainly would not erase all the Western concerns about democratic backsliding. Indeed, EU officials make clear that she must be freed and also allowed to participate in politics, including running in future elections..."
The body language of the government's mouthpieces on ICTV's 'Svoboda Slova', where the topic of decriminalisation of economic crimes [to solve the Tymoshenko problem] were under discussion, revealed their discomfort at having to eat humble pie. Their attempts to place the blame on deficiencies in the country's current laws was unconvincing.
An astonishing statement was made by Presidential Adviser Hanna Herman. She claimed Tymoshenko's arrest, which took place when Yanukovych was on vacation, was not only wrong, but was also an act of sabotage intended to discredit the president, carried out by someone whom she "would strangle with her own hands"...
'Kommentarii' suggests this may be an indication that members of Yanukovych's inner circle are beginning to plot against one another. Herman has had to take the flak for the plagiarism fiasco surrounding the book 'wot Yanukovych rote' - perhaps one of his inner circle was responsible for exposing Herman as the book's instigator. It could be she did not travel to New York with the president this week, as punishment.
[According to Kommentarii it may have well been First Deputy Prosecutor General of Ukraine Renat Kuzmin, who 'screwed up' on Tymoshenko. For successfully 'putting her away', the black-hearted Kuzmin was seeking promotion as head of the Ukrainian Security Service - the SBU].
Sonya Koshkina in 'L.B' claims:
"The European integration of Ukraine, and with it the entire future of the country as a whole, is under massive question ." This is the biggest and most depressing conclusion of the eighth of Yalta European Strategy conference.
She concludes by saying Europeans have finally understood that key decisions in the country are being made by one person, the president, and that public opinion and the position of the elites are irrelevant to that man. PoR's oligarchs are willing to go along with Yanukovych's decisions, whatever they are, and are probably frightened that he may wish to become as wealthy as they are..
Yanukovych does not really understand why Ukraine should be in Europe. He could have been the Moses who leads Ukraine to the promised land of the EU, but his chance for a place in the history books could be blown for reasons of political revenge and personal greed.
"Does Yanukovych now get it? Maybe. His answer to the Tymoshenko question [at the Yalta European Strategy conference] - which was carefully worded and most likely thought through in advance - opened a door to a possible solution by noting that the Rada (Ukraine’s parliament) will examine certain provisions of the criminal code and may decide to remove them. Rada deputies have already proposed dropping the law that is the basis for the charges against Tymoshenko.
This could offer an elegant way out of the mess. If the Rada removes the relevant provision from the criminal code, it would eliminate the grounds for the Tymoshenko trial. Ukrainian analysts and Western diplomats at the Yalta conference expressed some optimism that the door to a solution might now be open—though one skeptic observed that the door had opened to a long corridor. All politics in Ukraine are transactional.
Tymoshenko’s release certainly would not erase all the Western concerns about democratic backsliding. Indeed, EU officials make clear that she must be freed and also allowed to participate in politics, including running in future elections..."
The body language of the government's mouthpieces on ICTV's 'Svoboda Slova', where the topic of decriminalisation of economic crimes [to solve the Tymoshenko problem] were under discussion, revealed their discomfort at having to eat humble pie. Their attempts to place the blame on deficiencies in the country's current laws was unconvincing.
An astonishing statement was made by Presidential Adviser Hanna Herman. She claimed Tymoshenko's arrest, which took place when Yanukovych was on vacation, was not only wrong, but was also an act of sabotage intended to discredit the president, carried out by someone whom she "would strangle with her own hands"...
'Kommentarii' suggests this may be an indication that members of Yanukovych's inner circle are beginning to plot against one another. Herman has had to take the flak for the plagiarism fiasco surrounding the book 'wot Yanukovych rote' - perhaps one of his inner circle was responsible for exposing Herman as the book's instigator. It could be she did not travel to New York with the president this week, as punishment.
[According to Kommentarii it may have well been First Deputy Prosecutor General of Ukraine Renat Kuzmin, who 'screwed up' on Tymoshenko. For successfully 'putting her away', the black-hearted Kuzmin was seeking promotion as head of the Ukrainian Security Service - the SBU].
Sonya Koshkina in 'L.B' claims:
"The European integration of Ukraine, and with it the entire future of the country as a whole, is under massive question ." This is the biggest and most depressing conclusion of the eighth of Yalta European Strategy conference.
She concludes by saying Europeans have finally understood that key decisions in the country are being made by one person, the president, and that public opinion and the position of the elites are irrelevant to that man. PoR's oligarchs are willing to go along with Yanukovych's decisions, whatever they are, and are probably frightened that he may wish to become as wealthy as they are..
Yanukovych does not really understand why Ukraine should be in Europe. He could have been the Moses who leads Ukraine to the promised land of the EU, but his chance for a place in the history books could be blown for reasons of political revenge and personal greed.
Monday, September 19, 2011
Dark clouds over Yalta
'Kommersant' newspaper, not known for sensationalist reporting, runs a story today with this heading and first paragraph:
Europe indignant about the [Tymoshenko] case
EU makes future of [relations with] Ukraine dependent on the future of Yulia Tymoshenko.
The annual Yalta European Strategy conference took place in Yalta on 16-17th September. Its main events were talks between President Viktor Yanukovych and European policy-makers concerning the prosecution of ex-premier, leader of the "Fatherland" party, Yulia Tymoshenko.
It is believed in Brussels that Kyiv will agree to a complete rehabilitation of Ms Tymoshenko. However, the EU is preparing a "plan B" whereby the the process of rapprochement with Ukraine could be completely halted.
So, it's getting serious..
Yanukovych tried to 'vybrekhatysya' [lie his way out], but failed...
p.s. Two of the guests at the YES conference were Andriy Kluyev, first vice prime minister of Ukraine responsible for economic development and trade, and Stefan Fule, European Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy.
Kluyev and his younger brother Serhiy are very wealthy businessmen - they own two executive jets. Nevertheless, Andriy chose to fly to Crimea to attend the YES conference in a specially chartered aircraft paid for by the government [at an estimated cost for the return trip of up to $20k]
Fule flew economy class on the Frankfurt-Simferopol flight..
Former interior minister Yuriy Lutsenko has been imprisoned since last December in connection with charges alleging he overpaid his driver by a few thousand dollars..
Europe indignant about the [Tymoshenko] case
EU makes future of [relations with] Ukraine dependent on the future of Yulia Tymoshenko.
The annual Yalta European Strategy conference took place in Yalta on 16-17th September. Its main events were talks between President Viktor Yanukovych and European policy-makers concerning the prosecution of ex-premier, leader of the "Fatherland" party, Yulia Tymoshenko.
It is believed in Brussels that Kyiv will agree to a complete rehabilitation of Ms Tymoshenko. However, the EU is preparing a "plan B" whereby the the process of rapprochement with Ukraine could be completely halted.
So, it's getting serious..
Yanukovych tried to 'vybrekhatysya' [lie his way out], but failed...
p.s. Two of the guests at the YES conference were Andriy Kluyev, first vice prime minister of Ukraine responsible for economic development and trade, and Stefan Fule, European Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy.
Kluyev and his younger brother Serhiy are very wealthy businessmen - they own two executive jets. Nevertheless, Andriy chose to fly to Crimea to attend the YES conference in a specially chartered aircraft paid for by the government [at an estimated cost for the return trip of up to $20k]
Fule flew economy class on the Frankfurt-Simferopol flight..
Former interior minister Yuriy Lutsenko has been imprisoned since last December in connection with charges alleging he overpaid his driver by a few thousand dollars..
Thursday, September 15, 2011
Tit for tat over Tymoshenko?
The first reading of the draft report of the European Parliament’s recommendations to the Council, the Commission and the EEAS on the negotiations of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement has been postponed from the 26 - 29th September pleniary session, provisionally until 16th November.
The Tymoshenko gas trial, which had been in its final run-in last week, was sensationally adjourned on Monday, until 27th September. A verdict was imminent and therefore would probably have been announced on Friday 30th September, or more likely, on Monday 3rd October, i.e. just after the European parliament session.
Now after this postponement in the European parliament, a further adjournment in the Tymoshenko trial could be likely, as I suggested in my previous blog.
'Lyevyi Bereg' editor-in-chief Sonia Koshkina reckons it could almost be the New Year before a sentence is passed in the Tymoshenko trial, and claims the former PM can be regarded as a hostage or a bargaining chip, serving to focus both Brussels' and Moscow's attention on to the looming gas war; to be released once a new gas price for Ukraine is settled.
President of European People`s Party Dr. Wilfried Martens met President Victor Yanukovych today. He had been denied access to the incarcerated Tymoshenko earlier in the day.
The big-selling pro-PoR 'Segodnya' concludes an article describing his visit thus: "..the European politician yet again made clear that a decision on the Association Agreement with the EU depends on the court's decision on Tymoshenko.
'Segodnya', quoting a recent 'Ukrainska Pravda' piece, says: "It's difficult to land up behind bars on the "Tymoshenko [criminal] article", media reports -The defendants usually get off with a fine or a 'suspended' sentence....They are preparing their readers for a soft landing for Lady Yu, as they sometimes call her..
The Tymoshenko gas trial, which had been in its final run-in last week, was sensationally adjourned on Monday, until 27th September. A verdict was imminent and therefore would probably have been announced on Friday 30th September, or more likely, on Monday 3rd October, i.e. just after the European parliament session.
Now after this postponement in the European parliament, a further adjournment in the Tymoshenko trial could be likely, as I suggested in my previous blog.
'Lyevyi Bereg' editor-in-chief Sonia Koshkina reckons it could almost be the New Year before a sentence is passed in the Tymoshenko trial, and claims the former PM can be regarded as a hostage or a bargaining chip, serving to focus both Brussels' and Moscow's attention on to the looming gas war; to be released once a new gas price for Ukraine is settled.
President of European People`s Party Dr. Wilfried Martens met President Victor Yanukovych today. He had been denied access to the incarcerated Tymoshenko earlier in the day.
The big-selling pro-PoR 'Segodnya' concludes an article describing his visit thus: "..the European politician yet again made clear that a decision on the Association Agreement with the EU depends on the court's decision on Tymoshenko.
'Segodnya', quoting a recent 'Ukrainska Pravda' piece, says: "It's difficult to land up behind bars on the "Tymoshenko [criminal] article", media reports -The defendants usually get off with a fine or a 'suspended' sentence....They are preparing their readers for a soft landing for Lady Yu, as they sometimes call her..
Monday, September 12, 2011
Turning point for Tymoshenko today?
Today could turn out to be a pivotal day in Ukrainian politics.
Since the start of the Tymoshenko trial in June the presiding judge has done his utmost to force proceedings at break-neck speed. Day after day court sessions have frequently started at 9 a.m. and continued almost without a break into the early evening. Tymoshenko's team have been constantly denied the right to call dozens of expert witnesses, despite their frequent appeals to do so. Requests for additional time to prepare the case for the defence have been almost invariably denied, as have requests to present detailed evidence such as Naftogas external auditors' reports.
In a word, it has been blinding obvious that the prosecution, judges and their political puppet-masters hads all intended the trial to come to an end and a guilty verdict to be pronounced just as quickly as half-decently possible.
But, to the astonishment of virtually all commentators, when court was re-convened today, the presiding judge announced a two-week adjournment until September 27: "to guarantee the rights of the defence and provide extra time." Significantly, the prosecuting council who had previously protested the granting of any slack to the defence, offered no challenge to the judge's decision.
In other words a complete about-face..
At a meeting of big-shot 'Regionnaires' recently, the whispers were that most of the talking was about finalising the details of the denouement of Tymoshenko's career. Most media observers considered a guilty verdict and a hefty sentence to be imminent, and the trial to be wrapped up by the end of this week. There had been lots of speculation over how heavy the sentence would be, and whether president Yanukovych would amnesty his deadliest political foe in order to attenuate the unprecendented pressure from abroad. Either way Tymoshenko's political career looked all but doomed.
My impression is that Yanukovych has been told in no uncertain terms by Western leaders: If Tymoshenko's political career is terminated, i.e. if a guilty verdict is announced at the end of the trial, we are not messing about...we are closing the door on any further business...Yanukovych has now been forced to make a stark choice.
At the moment Tymoshenko is not guilty of anything and can be released by a snap of the fingers of sourcerer's apprentice of a judge. But a not guilty verdict would be just too much to bear for the current authorities, so the Tymoshenko trial could be suspended for an indefinite period,,..allegations remaining hanging over her. The pressure from abroad, however, would immediately subside.
A guilty verdict in the Tymoshenko trial immediately after the Eastern Partnership summit in Warsaw, which is to take place September 29-30, reduces the chances of ratification of any EU-Ukraine agreements initialled in Warsaw because the two-week adjournment announced today in the Pechersk court would be regarded as a cynical ploy intended to temporarily deceive EU leaders.
Yanukovych will be at the United Nations General Assembly next week, so the delay helps avoid embarrassment in New York too.
p.s. But there again, who knows what goes on in the heads of the people who got themselves into this mess in the first place? Tymoshenko's political career was in decline, the opposition were demoralised and fractured, European perspectives were looking rosy, and after the Kharkiv agreement, things were set fair with Russia....how did it all go wrong?
It woz the 'mother's union' that fixed it.
Since the start of the Tymoshenko trial in June the presiding judge has done his utmost to force proceedings at break-neck speed. Day after day court sessions have frequently started at 9 a.m. and continued almost without a break into the early evening. Tymoshenko's team have been constantly denied the right to call dozens of expert witnesses, despite their frequent appeals to do so. Requests for additional time to prepare the case for the defence have been almost invariably denied, as have requests to present detailed evidence such as Naftogas external auditors' reports.
In a word, it has been blinding obvious that the prosecution, judges and their political puppet-masters hads all intended the trial to come to an end and a guilty verdict to be pronounced just as quickly as half-decently possible.
But, to the astonishment of virtually all commentators, when court was re-convened today, the presiding judge announced a two-week adjournment until September 27: "to guarantee the rights of the defence and provide extra time." Significantly, the prosecuting council who had previously protested the granting of any slack to the defence, offered no challenge to the judge's decision.
In other words a complete about-face..
At a meeting of big-shot 'Regionnaires' recently, the whispers were that most of the talking was about finalising the details of the denouement of Tymoshenko's career. Most media observers considered a guilty verdict and a hefty sentence to be imminent, and the trial to be wrapped up by the end of this week. There had been lots of speculation over how heavy the sentence would be, and whether president Yanukovych would amnesty his deadliest political foe in order to attenuate the unprecendented pressure from abroad. Either way Tymoshenko's political career looked all but doomed.
My impression is that Yanukovych has been told in no uncertain terms by Western leaders: If Tymoshenko's political career is terminated, i.e. if a guilty verdict is announced at the end of the trial, we are not messing about...we are closing the door on any further business...Yanukovych has now been forced to make a stark choice.
At the moment Tymoshenko is not guilty of anything and can be released by a snap of the fingers of sourcerer's apprentice of a judge. But a not guilty verdict would be just too much to bear for the current authorities, so the Tymoshenko trial could be suspended for an indefinite period,,..allegations remaining hanging over her. The pressure from abroad, however, would immediately subside.
A guilty verdict in the Tymoshenko trial immediately after the Eastern Partnership summit in Warsaw, which is to take place September 29-30, reduces the chances of ratification of any EU-Ukraine agreements initialled in Warsaw because the two-week adjournment announced today in the Pechersk court would be regarded as a cynical ploy intended to temporarily deceive EU leaders.
Yanukovych will be at the United Nations General Assembly next week, so the delay helps avoid embarrassment in New York too.
p.s. But there again, who knows what goes on in the heads of the people who got themselves into this mess in the first place? Tymoshenko's political career was in decline, the opposition were demoralised and fractured, European perspectives were looking rosy, and after the Kharkiv agreement, things were set fair with Russia....how did it all go wrong?
It woz the 'mother's union' that fixed it.
Friday, September 09, 2011
Medvedev says gas formula is universal and applies to Ukraine and other countries - and 'Tymo', 'Lutsyk' to be free soon?
Yesterday president Medvedev of Russia was interviewed by Euronews.
Below is a portion of that interview:
Euronews: Another winter is coming, and once more there is another conflict between Russia and Ukraine about gas.
Dmitry Medvedev: Well, so far there’s no conflict, rather there are differences that might lead to various developments.
Euronews: Could that lead to problems with the gas supply to Europe, for example?
Dmitry Medvedev: You know, I hope that after all the recent experiences our close partners and friends must learn that you can’t torpedo existing contracts – even if you don’t like them, like when our colleagues and partners, the president of Ukraine or the Ukrainian Prime Minister say that a contract is unfair and bad and they won’t honour it.
It is completely unacceptable. All agreements, as long as they are not refuted in court or abandoned by the parties, must be carried out.
And I hope that our partners, our Ukrainian friends will likewise stick strictly to the framework agreement concluded in 2009. As for the future, I have repeatedly said that we are willing to discuss various cooperation schemes with our Ukrainian colleagues. Including advanced plans, based on the integration of Ukraine in the Customs Union.
But they, for some reason, say that the WTO prevents them from being in the Customs Union – but it’s a little strange, as the Customs Union doesn’t prevent us from joining the WTO. But that’s their own view.
Or we could discuss integration based on some other approaches, including our investment in Ukraine’s economy or gas transport system.
If we can agree on this, we will probably be ready to consider change in the scheme of cooperation. But at the same time the immutable principle remains that gas cooperation is always based on a formula. The formula is universal, and it applies to Ukraine and other countries. Talk like “we’re paying more than other countries” isn’t based on anything. This is pure propaganda.
Ukraine pays by the same formula, and pays commensurate with the price paid by other European consumers. Current prices are high, that’s true. But they can also be extremely low sometimes. And then it’s a problem for the energy supplier. So, in summary, I hope Ukrainian consumers will keep following the contract properly, and we’ll come to an agreement about our future business.
It is unlikely what Medvedev says about Ukraine's gas payments is far from the truth. On top of this Yanukovych gave up Sevastopol for several decades to the Russian Black Sea fleet in exchange for a gas discount..
So why is Tymoshenko being charged and imprisoned for negotiating a bad gas deal with a monopolistic supplier under extreme duress, in 2009?
[A most informative, up-to-date concise explanation of the Ukrainian-Russian gas dispute can be read here ]
This article from 'Ukrainian Weekly ' explains the backstreet gangster tactics being employed to eliminate Tymoshenko from Ukrainian politics...What else can be expected from these thugs?
p.s. Interesting and intriguing statement on the president of Poland's official site today following a meeting between himself and president of the European Council, Herman van Rompuy on Friday afternoon, during which Ukraine's European perspectives were discussed.
"After talks with President Yanukovych [on Thursday ] I can have a limited, but reasonably, optimistic point of view on the prospects for development of the situation (in Ukraine), also in the context of the Yulia Tymoshenko's case.... We will continue to take actions which should ensure the success of the Eastern Partnership Summit in Warsaw, but also [provide] an exit for Ukraine from a difficult situation in which it has found itself, in the opinion of many EU member states, due to the ongoing trial of Tymoshenko, said president Komorowski."
Hmm....Has Yanik made certain pledges or undertakings?
Saturday Update: 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' thinks some kind of 'fudge' or as they call it, 'ersatz -variant' is likely in the Tymoshenko and Lutsenko cases too...
Below is a portion of that interview:
Euronews: Another winter is coming, and once more there is another conflict between Russia and Ukraine about gas.
Dmitry Medvedev: Well, so far there’s no conflict, rather there are differences that might lead to various developments.
Euronews: Could that lead to problems with the gas supply to Europe, for example?
Dmitry Medvedev: You know, I hope that after all the recent experiences our close partners and friends must learn that you can’t torpedo existing contracts – even if you don’t like them, like when our colleagues and partners, the president of Ukraine or the Ukrainian Prime Minister say that a contract is unfair and bad and they won’t honour it.
It is completely unacceptable. All agreements, as long as they are not refuted in court or abandoned by the parties, must be carried out.
And I hope that our partners, our Ukrainian friends will likewise stick strictly to the framework agreement concluded in 2009. As for the future, I have repeatedly said that we are willing to discuss various cooperation schemes with our Ukrainian colleagues. Including advanced plans, based on the integration of Ukraine in the Customs Union.
But they, for some reason, say that the WTO prevents them from being in the Customs Union – but it’s a little strange, as the Customs Union doesn’t prevent us from joining the WTO. But that’s their own view.
Or we could discuss integration based on some other approaches, including our investment in Ukraine’s economy or gas transport system.
If we can agree on this, we will probably be ready to consider change in the scheme of cooperation. But at the same time the immutable principle remains that gas cooperation is always based on a formula. The formula is universal, and it applies to Ukraine and other countries. Talk like “we’re paying more than other countries” isn’t based on anything. This is pure propaganda.
Ukraine pays by the same formula, and pays commensurate with the price paid by other European consumers. Current prices are high, that’s true. But they can also be extremely low sometimes. And then it’s a problem for the energy supplier. So, in summary, I hope Ukrainian consumers will keep following the contract properly, and we’ll come to an agreement about our future business.
It is unlikely what Medvedev says about Ukraine's gas payments is far from the truth. On top of this Yanukovych gave up Sevastopol for several decades to the Russian Black Sea fleet in exchange for a gas discount..
So why is Tymoshenko being charged and imprisoned for negotiating a bad gas deal with a monopolistic supplier under extreme duress, in 2009?
[A most informative, up-to-date concise explanation of the Ukrainian-Russian gas dispute can be read here ]
This article from 'Ukrainian Weekly ' explains the backstreet gangster tactics being employed to eliminate Tymoshenko from Ukrainian politics...What else can be expected from these thugs?
p.s. Interesting and intriguing statement on the president of Poland's official site today following a meeting between himself and president of the European Council, Herman van Rompuy on Friday afternoon, during which Ukraine's European perspectives were discussed.
"After talks with President Yanukovych [on Thursday ] I can have a limited, but reasonably, optimistic point of view on the prospects for development of the situation (in Ukraine), also in the context of the Yulia Tymoshenko's case.... We will continue to take actions which should ensure the success of the Eastern Partnership Summit in Warsaw, but also [provide] an exit for Ukraine from a difficult situation in which it has found itself, in the opinion of many EU member states, due to the ongoing trial of Tymoshenko, said president Komorowski."
Hmm....Has Yanik made certain pledges or undertakings?
Saturday Update: 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' thinks some kind of 'fudge' or as they call it, 'ersatz -variant' is likely in the Tymoshenko and Lutsenko cases too...
Yatsenyuk's 'Front Zmin' having its balls sqeezed too...
Arseniy Yatsenyuk's 'Front Zmin' reports the head of their Donetsk oblast organisation, Oleksandr Yaroshenko, was arrested late Wednesday night in Kyiv. They claim he has been taken by automobile to Donetsk, but no-one has been able to contact him.
The party says the arrest took place immediately after a visit by Yatsenyuk to the Donetsk oblast where he 'severely criticised the actions of the president, govermnent, and city council'.
Yaroshenko is the head doctor in dermatology clinic in Mariupol and over the last few years has set up several diagnostic medical centres in Ukraine, so sounds like a 'regular guy'.
Neither the Kyiv police nor the Ukrainian Security Service, SBU, seem to know anything about Yaroshenko's arrest..
If Yulia Tymoshenko is found guilty and sentenced to a prison 'stretch', as most observers predict , Yatsenyuk, whether he likes it or not, will become 'leader of the opposition' and a most realistic challenger to Yanukovych..
The authoritative 'Kommentarii' weekly considers this shady Yaroshenko business to be part of a co-ordinated campaign, already underway, intended to frighten off Donetsk businessmen who may be sympathetic to 'Front Zmin'.
Yatsenyuk's party have been landing some heavy political blows in the region lately, and 'Kommentarii' suggest that if it were not for his immunity from prosecution provided by his parliamentary deputy status, young Arseniy may have been in the same 'hot water' as Tymoshenko already..
Loosely paraphrasing 'Kommentarii's' conclusions:
..many of the rich 'Frontovyky' [in the Donetsk area] are now encountering problems with enviable regularity to make them realise that it makes not the slightest sense to financially support 'Front Zmin'.. to 'lean on them', but if they persist, [to let them know] their businesses can be taken off them. The [biggest] threat the authorities' tactics pose to Yatsenyuk himself right now is loss of financing... forcing him to consider seeking a"roof" provided by one of the Party of Regions' oligarchs and becoming a PoR-operated glove-puppet opposition [leader].
In other words: 'Front Zmin' are being "made an offer they cannot refuse" ....now who said that?
Two of Yanukovych's biggest rivals, Tymoshenko and Lutsenko, are behind bars.. A third majpr party led by a potential future president, Tihipko's 'Strong Ukraine', has recently 'melded' with PoR. Now Yatsenyuk is being squeezed....you gotta admire these guys...straight out of Mario Puzo..
The party says the arrest took place immediately after a visit by Yatsenyuk to the Donetsk oblast where he 'severely criticised the actions of the president, govermnent, and city council'.
Yaroshenko is the head doctor in dermatology clinic in Mariupol and over the last few years has set up several diagnostic medical centres in Ukraine, so sounds like a 'regular guy'.
Neither the Kyiv police nor the Ukrainian Security Service, SBU, seem to know anything about Yaroshenko's arrest..
If Yulia Tymoshenko is found guilty and sentenced to a prison 'stretch', as most observers predict , Yatsenyuk, whether he likes it or not, will become 'leader of the opposition' and a most realistic challenger to Yanukovych..
The authoritative 'Kommentarii' weekly considers this shady Yaroshenko business to be part of a co-ordinated campaign, already underway, intended to frighten off Donetsk businessmen who may be sympathetic to 'Front Zmin'.
Yatsenyuk's party have been landing some heavy political blows in the region lately, and 'Kommentarii' suggest that if it were not for his immunity from prosecution provided by his parliamentary deputy status, young Arseniy may have been in the same 'hot water' as Tymoshenko already..
Loosely paraphrasing 'Kommentarii's' conclusions:
..many of the rich 'Frontovyky' [in the Donetsk area] are now encountering problems with enviable regularity to make them realise that it makes not the slightest sense to financially support 'Front Zmin'.. to 'lean on them', but if they persist, [to let them know] their businesses can be taken off them. The [biggest] threat the authorities' tactics pose to Yatsenyuk himself right now is loss of financing... forcing him to consider seeking a"roof" provided by one of the Party of Regions' oligarchs and becoming a PoR-operated glove-puppet opposition [leader].
In other words: 'Front Zmin' are being "made an offer they cannot refuse" ....now who said that?
Two of Yanukovych's biggest rivals, Tymoshenko and Lutsenko, are behind bars.. A third majpr party led by a potential future president, Tihipko's 'Strong Ukraine', has recently 'melded' with PoR. Now Yatsenyuk is being squeezed....you gotta admire these guys...straight out of Mario Puzo..
Wednesday, September 07, 2011
The book 'wot Yanukovyhc rote'
So the translator of Yanukovych's latest book, 'Opportunity Ukraine', has now taken the blame for this piece of blatant plagiarism.
After denials of plagiarism by presidential administration spokesperson Hanna Herman and the subsequent scandal that flared up in the international press, someone had to be made the fall guy.
The translator of the book, Konstyantyn Vasylkevych, now admits he omitted references to sources because: "It was necessary to make the book more convenient to read."
LEvko says everyone knows that Yanukovych is not a well-read man capable of writing book of several hundreds of pages. Nothing wrong in that. I recall when Yanukovych had to write a comment in a visitors book several years ago in a European city, he discreetly pulled out a little crib-sheet to make sure he did not make any spelling mistakes...Nothing wrong with that either..
But to claim authorship of a trashy piece of plagiarism shows Yanukovych is losing his sense of reality, and is becoming self-delusional, which is dangerous..And a panglossian book, intended to encourage sceptical foreigners and hard-nosed businessmen to invest in Ukraine, will have quite the opposite effect..
p.s. "The book what I wrote" is the title of a book about two well-loved British comedians - so, strictly no plagiarism in this blog..
Update on oil platform scandal
In late May and early June I posted several blogs [here, here, here] about an alleged scam, exposed by the 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' newspaper, involving the purchase of an oil drilling platform for hundreds of millions of dollars via a highly dubious off-shore company, all overseen by odious energy minister Yuriy Boyko.
Now Stan Gorin, a director of the off-shore name-plate company, 'Highway Investment Processing LLP', whose registered offices are over a plumber's merchant between a Chinese take-away and a tattoo parlour in Cardiff, Wales, claims he has received no money, has never been in Ukraine, and has nothing to do with drilling platforms, even though Ukrainian National Joint Stock Company'Chornomornaftogaz' has has already paid $202 million into his company's bank account 'up-front' for the drilling platform.
At the time the story broke, Boyko claimed the story had been 'commissioned' in order to discredit him. He promised to refer the matter to the Ukrainian State Security [SBU] for investigation so that the instigators of this 'disgraceful muck-raking' could be revealed.
Its now seems that the matter was investigated - not by the SBU, because they are headed by Valeriy Khoroshkovsky, a financial/political associate of Boyko's, but by the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
To date no-one has been named as the alleged [fictional?] commissioner of this story, and 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' has not been told to retract their story..
After denials of plagiarism by presidential administration spokesperson Hanna Herman and the subsequent scandal that flared up in the international press, someone had to be made the fall guy.
The translator of the book, Konstyantyn Vasylkevych, now admits he omitted references to sources because: "It was necessary to make the book more convenient to read."
LEvko says everyone knows that Yanukovych is not a well-read man capable of writing book of several hundreds of pages. Nothing wrong in that. I recall when Yanukovych had to write a comment in a visitors book several years ago in a European city, he discreetly pulled out a little crib-sheet to make sure he did not make any spelling mistakes...Nothing wrong with that either..
But to claim authorship of a trashy piece of plagiarism shows Yanukovych is losing his sense of reality, and is becoming self-delusional, which is dangerous..And a panglossian book, intended to encourage sceptical foreigners and hard-nosed businessmen to invest in Ukraine, will have quite the opposite effect..
p.s. "The book what I wrote" is the title of a book about two well-loved British comedians - so, strictly no plagiarism in this blog..
Update on oil platform scandal
In late May and early June I posted several blogs [here, here, here] about an alleged scam, exposed by the 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' newspaper, involving the purchase of an oil drilling platform for hundreds of millions of dollars via a highly dubious off-shore company, all overseen by odious energy minister Yuriy Boyko.
Now Stan Gorin, a director of the off-shore name-plate company, 'Highway Investment Processing LLP', whose registered offices are over a plumber's merchant between a Chinese take-away and a tattoo parlour in Cardiff, Wales, claims he has received no money, has never been in Ukraine, and has nothing to do with drilling platforms, even though Ukrainian National Joint Stock Company'Chornomornaftogaz' has has already paid $202 million into his company's bank account 'up-front' for the drilling platform.
At the time the story broke, Boyko claimed the story had been 'commissioned' in order to discredit him. He promised to refer the matter to the Ukrainian State Security [SBU] for investigation so that the instigators of this 'disgraceful muck-raking' could be revealed.
Its now seems that the matter was investigated - not by the SBU, because they are headed by Valeriy Khoroshkovsky, a financial/political associate of Boyko's, but by the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
To date no-one has been named as the alleged [fictional?] commissioner of this story, and 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' has not been told to retract their story..
Saturday, September 03, 2011
European leaders not bluffing...
At an informal meeting of Ministers of Foreign Affairs of 27 EU countries in Sopot, Poland today, discussions were held on preparations for the forthcoming Eastern Partnership Summit, [scheduled for 29-30th September in Warsaw] where association and free trade agreements with Ukraine could be finalised.
Today, Reuters reported the meeting thus: "European Union members could block an agreement on closer ties with Ukraine if Kiev continues with a "show trial" against the country’s former leader, senior EU diplomats said on Saturday"
French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe, in a separate press conference, said: “The majority view (in the EU) is that the agreement can be finalised only if the Tymoshenko case is solved..It means having a free and fair trial and abandoning the unjustified charges against her.”
Many similar declarations have been voiced for many weeks now. However, reading stuff in Ukrainian newspapers and listening to Ukrainian TV and radio, so-called experts, representatives of 'vlasti', and maybe even the man in the street, all consider these to be empty threats and bluff.
E.g. well-known German Eurasia expert, Alexander Rahr, appearing in a recent 'Bolshaya Politika' talk show , said the sorts of responses heard today in Sopot are merely 'ritualistic' and declared that in politics, apart from moral, there are also absolutely cynical, 'realpolitik' judgements to be made.
According to Rahr, Europeans big fear that Ukraine could slip back into Russia's sphere of influence and a new Russian empire could reemerge. To prevent this, free trade and association agreements will, sooner or later be signed between the EU and Ukraine. Geo-political interests need to be served even if Tymoshenko has to 'go to the wall'.
LEvko's view is that 'big-beast' foreign ministers do not bluff...they have have made too many big decisions, sent their young persons to war too many times in recent years to have to do this... There is domestic political capital to be gained by standing up for democratic principles...protecting the imprisoned fairy princess from the brutal ogre etc...'Realpolitik' is applied in different measure according to each individual country and situation..
Most likely there will be a verdict in the Tymoshenko trial by the time of the Eastern Partnership Summit, so not long to wait for its messy resolutions ...
p.s. Tymoshenko, in a recent letter co-written with Hryhoriy Nemyria, said: "It is our fervent belief that Ukraine's future lies in Europe. Our government displayed our commitment to this goal by initiating talks for a comprehensive free-trade agreement with the EU, which is due to be finalized this year. And while we do not want Mrs. Tymoshenko's or her associates' political show-trials to deflect Ukraine from its European path, it is worth noting that never before has the EU entered into such a far-reaching free-trade agreement with a non-democratic state. Sadly, this is exactly what Ukraine is becoming."
Today, Reuters reported the meeting thus: "European Union members could block an agreement on closer ties with Ukraine if Kiev continues with a "show trial" against the country’s former leader, senior EU diplomats said on Saturday"
French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe, in a separate press conference, said: “The majority view (in the EU) is that the agreement can be finalised only if the Tymoshenko case is solved..It means having a free and fair trial and abandoning the unjustified charges against her.”
Many similar declarations have been voiced for many weeks now. However, reading stuff in Ukrainian newspapers and listening to Ukrainian TV and radio, so-called experts, representatives of 'vlasti', and maybe even the man in the street, all consider these to be empty threats and bluff.
E.g. well-known German Eurasia expert, Alexander Rahr, appearing in a recent 'Bolshaya Politika' talk show , said the sorts of responses heard today in Sopot are merely 'ritualistic' and declared that in politics, apart from moral, there are also absolutely cynical, 'realpolitik' judgements to be made.
According to Rahr, Europeans big fear that Ukraine could slip back into Russia's sphere of influence and a new Russian empire could reemerge. To prevent this, free trade and association agreements will, sooner or later be signed between the EU and Ukraine. Geo-political interests need to be served even if Tymoshenko has to 'go to the wall'.
LEvko's view is that 'big-beast' foreign ministers do not bluff...they have have made too many big decisions, sent their young persons to war too many times in recent years to have to do this... There is domestic political capital to be gained by standing up for democratic principles...protecting the imprisoned fairy princess from the brutal ogre etc...'Realpolitik' is applied in different measure according to each individual country and situation..
Most likely there will be a verdict in the Tymoshenko trial by the time of the Eastern Partnership Summit, so not long to wait for its messy resolutions ...
p.s. Tymoshenko, in a recent letter co-written with Hryhoriy Nemyria, said: "It is our fervent belief that Ukraine's future lies in Europe. Our government displayed our commitment to this goal by initiating talks for a comprehensive free-trade agreement with the EU, which is due to be finalized this year. And while we do not want Mrs. Tymoshenko's or her associates' political show-trials to deflect Ukraine from its European path, it is worth noting that never before has the EU entered into such a far-reaching free-trade agreement with a non-democratic state. Sadly, this is exactly what Ukraine is becoming."
Thursday, September 01, 2011
Cunning plan to save Yanik's face?
'Kommentarii' weekly claims that according to their sources, Ukraine's ruling authorities will never give up on putting Tymoshenko behind bars. But in order to reduce the degree of criticism from the West, the presidential administration has dreamt up a plan to extricate themselves from the bind they find themselves in as a result of the criminal cases in progress against Tymoshenko and former internal affairs minister, Yuriy Lutsenko.
The plan is as follows: Tymoshenko is to be found guilty and convicted, but Lutsenko is to be released, and, at worst, is to receive a suspended sentence.
In order to "enhance and confirm the objectivity and impartiality of the Ukrainian judiciary", some of Party of Regions' lesser fish are to be caught and arrested on charges of corruption.
In addition, slimeball parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn, who has recently been 'fingered' by alleged perpetrator Oleksiy Pukach for commissioning the murder of Georgiy Gongadze, could be made to 'take a fall' for this offence.
All this is supposed to get Yanukovych back into the 'good books' of the West.
Only a thuggish numbskull moron could come up with such a hare-brained scheme, so your humble blogger attaches no credence to this story at all....but there again....
Recently 'Der Spiegel' declared: "As alarm grows in the West over the trial against former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, German politicians are threatening to withdraw their support for an agreement that would strengthen ties between the European Union and the former Soviet Republic.."
Everyone's gaze is only on queen bee...
p.s. How ironic that Ukraine's government is threatening to file lawsuits in international courts regarding its gas disputes with Russia, when, at the same time, its own domestic courts are bungling the Tymoshenko gas trial at home... maybe she should be tried in an international court too...what would the verdict be there, I wonder?
Will Yanukovych accept any ruling e.g by the European Court of Human Rights on the political show-trials taking place in Ukraine right now?
...stupid question...
The plan is as follows: Tymoshenko is to be found guilty and convicted, but Lutsenko is to be released, and, at worst, is to receive a suspended sentence.
In order to "enhance and confirm the objectivity and impartiality of the Ukrainian judiciary", some of Party of Regions' lesser fish are to be caught and arrested on charges of corruption.
In addition, slimeball parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn, who has recently been 'fingered' by alleged perpetrator Oleksiy Pukach for commissioning the murder of Georgiy Gongadze, could be made to 'take a fall' for this offence.
All this is supposed to get Yanukovych back into the 'good books' of the West.
Only a thuggish numbskull moron could come up with such a hare-brained scheme, so your humble blogger attaches no credence to this story at all....but there again....
Recently 'Der Spiegel' declared: "As alarm grows in the West over the trial against former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, German politicians are threatening to withdraw their support for an agreement that would strengthen ties between the European Union and the former Soviet Republic.."
Everyone's gaze is only on queen bee...
p.s. How ironic that Ukraine's government is threatening to file lawsuits in international courts regarding its gas disputes with Russia, when, at the same time, its own domestic courts are bungling the Tymoshenko gas trial at home... maybe she should be tried in an international court too...what would the verdict be there, I wonder?
Will Yanukovych accept any ruling e.g by the European Court of Human Rights on the political show-trials taking place in Ukraine right now?
...stupid question...
Why cases against opposition are seen to be politically motivated
According to the pro-Yanukovych "Segodnya'" newspaper the inevitable 'source close to Yanukovych' exposed the president's calculations by claiming:
Polish president Komorowski is not interested in Tymoshenko herself - he is perfectly well aware that by signing a gas contract in 2009, Yulia T. worked for the benefit of Russia as well as for herself in the presidential race, but this topic had to be raised to take account of a strong BYuT lobby the European Parliament.
The only important thing is which argument tips the scales - the need to mitigate the situation around Tymoshenko, or the need to draw Ukraine into the EU because of the serious pressure being strongly applied by Russia onto Ukraine.
For Komorowski the choice is clear already - drawing Ukraine into the EU is more important than Tymoshenko, and his opinion as the current head of the EU is influential, but it is also clear that there are more powerful heads of state in the EU.
However the Polish President will make every effort, because he understands that Ukraine will either receive an association agreement under his Presidency, i,e. by the end of 2011, or it will it be postponed indefinitely.
At the same time, a 'Segodnya' BYuT informant claims that it was made clear to the president of Ukraine in Gdansk that the EU integrates only with democracies, or those countries moving toward democracy; and a country where the opposition leader is behind bars can not be considered democratic.
Neither of these viewpoints are strictly correct - no leader is above the law.
The criminal cases against both Tymoshenko, and Lutsenko, are fundamentally weak - that is the reason why they are seen to be politically motivated. In countries with independent judiciary there would have been no trial in either case, or the trials would have collapsed very quickly.
Furthermore, even though these trials are being carefully scrutinised, they have been conducted from the very beginning in a completely shambolic and prejudicial manner, so any verdict cannot be considered sound.
Polish president Komorowski is not interested in Tymoshenko herself - he is perfectly well aware that by signing a gas contract in 2009, Yulia T. worked for the benefit of Russia as well as for herself in the presidential race, but this topic had to be raised to take account of a strong BYuT lobby the European Parliament.
The only important thing is which argument tips the scales - the need to mitigate the situation around Tymoshenko, or the need to draw Ukraine into the EU because of the serious pressure being strongly applied by Russia onto Ukraine.
For Komorowski the choice is clear already - drawing Ukraine into the EU is more important than Tymoshenko, and his opinion as the current head of the EU is influential, but it is also clear that there are more powerful heads of state in the EU.
However the Polish President will make every effort, because he understands that Ukraine will either receive an association agreement under his Presidency, i,e. by the end of 2011, or it will it be postponed indefinitely.
At the same time, a 'Segodnya' BYuT informant claims that it was made clear to the president of Ukraine in Gdansk that the EU integrates only with democracies, or those countries moving toward democracy; and a country where the opposition leader is behind bars can not be considered democratic.
Neither of these viewpoints are strictly correct - no leader is above the law.
The criminal cases against both Tymoshenko, and Lutsenko, are fundamentally weak - that is the reason why they are seen to be politically motivated. In countries with independent judiciary there would have been no trial in either case, or the trials would have collapsed very quickly.
Furthermore, even though these trials are being carefully scrutinised, they have been conducted from the very beginning in a completely shambolic and prejudicial manner, so any verdict cannot be considered sound.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Polish visit presents Yanukovych with a stark choice
Twenty years ago, on 24th August 1991, the day when Ukraine proclaimed its independence, your humble blogger was in Warsaw. Poland was the first country to recognise the nascent Ukrainian state and is, even today, Ukraine's 'best friend'. But right now they are dismayed by what they see as the 'roll-back' of democracy in the country and the political persecution of Ukrainian opposition leaders, in particular.
Today president Yanukovych was visiting Polish president Komorowski on the Baltic coast in what could turn out to be a watershed meeting.
In an op-ed piece in one of Poland's leading newspapers, 'Gazeta Wyborcza', a Polish presidential advisor worries: "..whether the Ukrainian authorities are fully aware of the consequences that this [Tymoshenko] trial may have on the success of projects of key importance on the declared desire of their permanent association with the European Union."
He adds: In Warsaw, the great hope is that by the end of the six-month period of the Polish presidency, EU talks on association agreements and free trade agreements [with Ukraine] will be concluded, but developments in Kyiv could tie the hands of Poland on the issue.
Arguments of politicians and countries reluctant to draw Ukraine into the EU may gain the upper hand. If we fail to do so by the end of 2011, talks on the association may be a drag on for many months or even longer.
It seems that the authorities in Kyiv, and President Viktor Yanukovych in particular, should take into accout this eventuality. It would be fatal if they have underestimated the seriousness of the situation.
In this high-stakes game for European status for Ukraine Kyiv should not provide arguments that undermine their chances of success.
Other Polish experts also think Komorowski will be trying to convince Yanukovych to free Tymoshenko from custody, whilst Yanukovych could be asking for advice on how to best extricate himself from the mess his hubris and lust for revenge have led him into.
It's looking more and more as if red lines are being drawn - Komorowski may well have told his Ukrainian counterpart: Back-off the opposition, or you're on your own pal..if you do not, a diplomatic train-wreck for you and your ministry of foreign affairs guys may well be in prospect..
Whatever Yanukovych decides, his democratic credentials have already been irretrievably damaged. This may be his last foreign trip westward for a while..
Today president Yanukovych was visiting Polish president Komorowski on the Baltic coast in what could turn out to be a watershed meeting.
In an op-ed piece in one of Poland's leading newspapers, 'Gazeta Wyborcza', a Polish presidential advisor worries: "..whether the Ukrainian authorities are fully aware of the consequences that this [Tymoshenko] trial may have on the success of projects of key importance on the declared desire of their permanent association with the European Union."
He adds: In Warsaw, the great hope is that by the end of the six-month period of the Polish presidency, EU talks on association agreements and free trade agreements [with Ukraine] will be concluded, but developments in Kyiv could tie the hands of Poland on the issue.
Arguments of politicians and countries reluctant to draw Ukraine into the EU may gain the upper hand. If we fail to do so by the end of 2011, talks on the association may be a drag on for many months or even longer.
It seems that the authorities in Kyiv, and President Viktor Yanukovych in particular, should take into accout this eventuality. It would be fatal if they have underestimated the seriousness of the situation.
In this high-stakes game for European status for Ukraine Kyiv should not provide arguments that undermine their chances of success.
Other Polish experts also think Komorowski will be trying to convince Yanukovych to free Tymoshenko from custody, whilst Yanukovych could be asking for advice on how to best extricate himself from the mess his hubris and lust for revenge have led him into.
It's looking more and more as if red lines are being drawn - Komorowski may well have told his Ukrainian counterpart: Back-off the opposition, or you're on your own pal..if you do not, a diplomatic train-wreck for you and your ministry of foreign affairs guys may well be in prospect..
Whatever Yanukovych decides, his democratic credentials have already been irretrievably damaged. This may be his last foreign trip westward for a while..
Saturday, August 27, 2011
Paranoid Yanukovych unable to fake sincerity
Today, Friday, president Yanukovych visited Donetsk to take part in the 'Day of the Miner' celebrations. He gave a speech praising their efforts, stressing the importance of coal to the country's economy, and awarded medals to distinguished workers in the industry.
The dark pall hanging over all of this, was of course the dozens of deaths in recent mining disasters at the local "Sukhodolskaya Vostochnaya", "Bazhanova," and "Krasnokutskaya" mines.
At a pre-arranged press conference the president could only find time to answer three questions from journalists : one from Rinat Akhmetov's TV company, one from Rinat Akhmetov's newspaper, and one from the First National Television channel which was clearly planted to enable Yanukovych to respond to recent comment by Russia's president Medvedev on Ukraine's possible accession into a Customs Union with its northern neighbour.
Yanukovych did not look comfortable, clenching and kneeding his fists, whilst giving his brief answers.
'Ostro' reports that security on the day was absurdly tight. In their words, "Donetsk greeted the president of Ukraine with enormous billboards and empty streets."
"An hour before the arrival of the head of state employees of the SBU and the police cleared people from 'Theatre Square'.
The President's cortege was met by several dozen of miners specially selected for this purpose, and several dozen employees of the SBU. The entire territory and the area in front of the theatre building was cordoned off by police. A brass band played...After the ceremonies had ended, when President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych left the theatre, his security immediately closed the main entrance doors behind him, not allowing any of those present to come out onto the street outside.
People, including those miners that had just congratulated, crowded into the theatre lobby, wondering when they would be allowed to leave the theatre. The waiting lasted about 10 minutes. The door was [then] opened for everyone."
[Compare with British prime minister, David Cameron, taking questions recently from members of parliament in a televised debate on wide-scale riots that took place in London and elsewhere, earlier this month:
"For two and a half hours on the Commons floor, Mr. Cameron took questions from anguished, and often angry, lawmakers. They demanded to know why, on the first nights of the rioting, their constituents had been left to cower in fear in their homes and elsewhere while police officers in riot gear stood back, armed only with nightsticks, under orders not to engage the rioters.
It was the longest inquisition of its kind that any prime minister has faced in living memory. Not even Winston Churchill, often described as the greatest Commons man in history, endured such a protracted grilling." ]
Groucho Marx once said that the key to success in life was sincerity, and added, if you can fake that you have really got it made. It was not one of Yanukovych's better days..
The dark pall hanging over all of this, was of course the dozens of deaths in recent mining disasters at the local "Sukhodolskaya Vostochnaya", "Bazhanova," and "Krasnokutskaya" mines.
At a pre-arranged press conference the president could only find time to answer three questions from journalists : one from Rinat Akhmetov's TV company, one from Rinat Akhmetov's newspaper, and one from the First National Television channel which was clearly planted to enable Yanukovych to respond to recent comment by Russia's president Medvedev on Ukraine's possible accession into a Customs Union with its northern neighbour.
Yanukovych did not look comfortable, clenching and kneeding his fists, whilst giving his brief answers.
'Ostro' reports that security on the day was absurdly tight. In their words, "Donetsk greeted the president of Ukraine with enormous billboards and empty streets."
"An hour before the arrival of the head of state employees of the SBU and the police cleared people from 'Theatre Square'.
The President's cortege was met by several dozen of miners specially selected for this purpose, and several dozen employees of the SBU. The entire territory and the area in front of the theatre building was cordoned off by police. A brass band played...After the ceremonies had ended, when President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych left the theatre, his security immediately closed the main entrance doors behind him, not allowing any of those present to come out onto the street outside.
People, including those miners that had just congratulated, crowded into the theatre lobby, wondering when they would be allowed to leave the theatre. The waiting lasted about 10 minutes. The door was [then] opened for everyone."
[Compare with British prime minister, David Cameron, taking questions recently from members of parliament in a televised debate on wide-scale riots that took place in London and elsewhere, earlier this month:
"For two and a half hours on the Commons floor, Mr. Cameron took questions from anguished, and often angry, lawmakers. They demanded to know why, on the first nights of the rioting, their constituents had been left to cower in fear in their homes and elsewhere while police officers in riot gear stood back, armed only with nightsticks, under orders not to engage the rioters.
It was the longest inquisition of its kind that any prime minister has faced in living memory. Not even Winston Churchill, often described as the greatest Commons man in history, endured such a protracted grilling." ]
Groucho Marx once said that the key to success in life was sincerity, and added, if you can fake that you have really got it made. It was not one of Yanukovych's better days..
Saturday, August 20, 2011
Case against Lutsenko falling apart, but so what?
The twists and turns of the Tymoshenko trial are hogging the mass media pages and airwaves, whilst almost unreported, the criminal case against former minister of the interior, Yuriy Lutsenko is falling apart.
A number of 'victims' of his so-called crimes have failed to turn up in court. The current minister of internal affairs, Anatoliy Mohylyov, has allegedly forbidden several of his subordinates to appear, fearing they will sing a different tune to that which they sang for the benefit of the criminal investigators.
Three other witnesses have also changed their testimony upon cross-examination in court and no longer consider Lutsenko to be the perpetrator of crimes against their person.
According to 'Unian', Lutsenko openly declared in a statement in the courtroom that presiding judge Serhiy Vovk was being blackmailed. He said this without any challenge from the bench. "Your honour, two criminal cases have been opened against you. You and me are the same. The same dirty game is being played against you as against me. How are we to going to continue this process?"
'Unian' article concludes: "We all understand that today this does not depend upon the will of the peaceloving Vovk...[As] in [all] the political trials taking place in Ukraine today, the judges are far from making the decisions. More accurately - they decide nothing at all."
Lutsenko remains in custody after 8 months behind bars. Tymoshenko is, at time of writing, still being denied access to her own personal physician, even though she claims to be suffering from a mysterious ailment, possibly caused by ingestion of rat-poison?
A number of 'victims' of his so-called crimes have failed to turn up in court. The current minister of internal affairs, Anatoliy Mohylyov, has allegedly forbidden several of his subordinates to appear, fearing they will sing a different tune to that which they sang for the benefit of the criminal investigators.
Three other witnesses have also changed their testimony upon cross-examination in court and no longer consider Lutsenko to be the perpetrator of crimes against their person.
According to 'Unian', Lutsenko openly declared in a statement in the courtroom that presiding judge Serhiy Vovk was being blackmailed. He said this without any challenge from the bench. "Your honour, two criminal cases have been opened against you. You and me are the same. The same dirty game is being played against you as against me. How are we to going to continue this process?"
'Unian' article concludes: "We all understand that today this does not depend upon the will of the peaceloving Vovk...[As] in [all] the political trials taking place in Ukraine today, the judges are far from making the decisions. More accurately - they decide nothing at all."
Lutsenko remains in custody after 8 months behind bars. Tymoshenko is, at time of writing, still being denied access to her own personal physician, even though she claims to be suffering from a mysterious ailment, possibly caused by ingestion of rat-poison?
Thursday, August 18, 2011
All liars
The Kremlin accuses Yushchenko of lying from the witness box today at the trial of Yulia Tymoshenko.
Yesterday minister of fuel and energy Yuriy Boyko certainly lied in the witness box when he laughably claimed he had no relationship to the setting up of 'RosUkrEnergo'. Boyko and RUE are at the heart of the totally corrupt Ukrainian/Russian gas business which has robbed the country's consumers of billions of dollars.
A portion of the loot, has, almost certainly, funded Yanukovych's and Party of Regions' election campaign costs. Much cheaper though to wipe out your political opponents by locking them up in jail.
Yuriy Shelyazhenko, in his 'U.P' blog posts a large spread from Gazprom's September 2004 in-house magazine. The article leaves no doubt that the creation of this company was part of an agreement between 'Gazprom' and Naftohaz Ukrainy' signed by Gazprom's Alexei Miller the-then Naftohaz chairman, Yuriy Boyko .
The article declares: "From January 2005 to 2028 'RosUkrEnergo' will sell gas to 'Naftohaz Ukrainy'", and claims the agreement could be called, "without exaggeration, historical"..
Tymoshenko has of course, been trying to eliminate RUE for years..
Yesterday minister of fuel and energy Yuriy Boyko certainly lied in the witness box when he laughably claimed he had no relationship to the setting up of 'RosUkrEnergo'. Boyko and RUE are at the heart of the totally corrupt Ukrainian/Russian gas business which has robbed the country's consumers of billions of dollars.
A portion of the loot, has, almost certainly, funded Yanukovych's and Party of Regions' election campaign costs. Much cheaper though to wipe out your political opponents by locking them up in jail.
Yuriy Shelyazhenko, in his 'U.P' blog posts a large spread from Gazprom's September 2004 in-house magazine. The article leaves no doubt that the creation of this company was part of an agreement between 'Gazprom' and Naftohaz Ukrainy' signed by Gazprom's Alexei Miller the-then Naftohaz chairman, Yuriy Boyko .
The article declares: "From January 2005 to 2028 'RosUkrEnergo' will sell gas to 'Naftohaz Ukrainy'", and claims the agreement could be called, "without exaggeration, historical"..
Tymoshenko has of course, been trying to eliminate RUE for years..
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
EU/Ukraine agreements in peril
A thoroughly damning assessment of Ukraine's legal system and its political puppetmasters by The Danish Helsinki Committee for Human Rights, entitled: "Second Preliminary Report based on the investigations and trials against former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, former acting Minister of Defence Valeriy Ivashchenko, former Minister of Interior Yurij Lutsenko and former First Deputy Minister of Justice Yevhen Korniychuk", can be read here
Today's 'Financial Times' carries a story about the proposed signing free trade and association agreements with the EU, entitled "Ukraine poses dilemma for Brussels"
The article ends with a quote from Nico Lange, head of the Ukraine office of Germany’s Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung foundation,
"What signal do you send if you include a country into this new form of co-operation when it is one of the worst worldwide in terms of business climate, corruption, has significant problems with democracy and rule of law, and is persecuting the former government?.. What signal does this send to northern Africa or Belarus?"
My guesss now is, on the balance of probabilities, EU countries will kick these agreements 'into the long grass'. Germany and France in particular, have had enough of paying the bills for more fiscally profligate countries in the Eurozone. Who needs extra burdens right now?
Today's 'Financial Times' carries a story about the proposed signing free trade and association agreements with the EU, entitled "Ukraine poses dilemma for Brussels"
The article ends with a quote from Nico Lange, head of the Ukraine office of Germany’s Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung foundation,
"What signal do you send if you include a country into this new form of co-operation when it is one of the worst worldwide in terms of business climate, corruption, has significant problems with democracy and rule of law, and is persecuting the former government?.. What signal does this send to northern Africa or Belarus?"
My guesss now is, on the balance of probabilities, EU countries will kick these agreements 'into the long grass'. Germany and France in particular, have had enough of paying the bills for more fiscally profligate countries in the Eurozone. Who needs extra burdens right now?
Saturday, August 13, 2011
Yet more criticism of Yanukovych
From the new French 'Altantico' news website, [known for exclusive scoops] an op-ed piece entitled: "A strong smell of gas behind the Tymoshenko trial":
"[Yulia Tymoshenko], the former prime minister in 2009 put an end to the role of RosUkrEnergo as an intermediary in the gas sector, thus closing the valve feeding the Russian Semyon Mogilevych and the Party of Regions of President Viktor Yanukovych via Dmytro Firtash and Ivan Fursin.... The prosecutor handling the case, said on his appointment in November 2010 that his sole mission was to serve the president, and the judges have also repeatedly been praised by Viktor Yanukovych.
Europe would be wrong to take these cases lightly. Behind this case not only is the political and democratic future of a country in the immediate vicinity being played out, but also energy issues affecting European supply (Ukraine is a major transit country for Russian gas) and also important criminal issues (Semyon Mogilevich has been sought by the FBI for several years).
Diplomatic condemnations cannot be sufficient, we must now move to sanctions."
Yanukovych clearly thinks that he can 'ride out' the 'shit-storm' directed at him from western politicians and the western media, but it is difficult how. There surely will be a price to pay.
How ironic that, as 'Yulia Mostova of 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' in a brilliant article points out, opinion polls reveal that although Yanukovych is still running ahead of Tymoshenko [by 56% against 44%], against any other candidate, in a straight head-to-head run-off, Yanukovych would lose by a similar margin.
In other words, by eliminating Tymoshenko from any contest he may well be sealing his own fate...
"[Yulia Tymoshenko], the former prime minister in 2009 put an end to the role of RosUkrEnergo as an intermediary in the gas sector, thus closing the valve feeding the Russian Semyon Mogilevych and the Party of Regions of President Viktor Yanukovych via Dmytro Firtash and Ivan Fursin.... The prosecutor handling the case, said on his appointment in November 2010 that his sole mission was to serve the president, and the judges have also repeatedly been praised by Viktor Yanukovych.
Europe would be wrong to take these cases lightly. Behind this case not only is the political and democratic future of a country in the immediate vicinity being played out, but also energy issues affecting European supply (Ukraine is a major transit country for Russian gas) and also important criminal issues (Semyon Mogilevich has been sought by the FBI for several years).
Diplomatic condemnations cannot be sufficient, we must now move to sanctions."
Yanukovych clearly thinks that he can 'ride out' the 'shit-storm' directed at him from western politicians and the western media, but it is difficult how. There surely will be a price to pay.
How ironic that, as 'Yulia Mostova of 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' in a brilliant article points out, opinion polls reveal that although Yanukovych is still running ahead of Tymoshenko [by 56% against 44%], against any other candidate, in a straight head-to-head run-off, Yanukovych would lose by a similar margin.
In other words, by eliminating Tymoshenko from any contest he may well be sealing his own fate...
Thursday, August 11, 2011
F.A.Z blasts Ukrainian authorities
One of Germany's premier newspapers, 'Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung' today carries an op-ed piece by Konrad Schuller calling for the EU to impose sanctions against individual Ukrainian government officials and to disrupt the Association Agreement negotiations..
"One thing is clear: the signing of an agreement celebrated with champagne and salmon canapés, while one Ukrainian opposition politician after another disappears behind prison walls, would be a sad comedy."
The 'Economist' calls president Yanukovych: "thuggish, vengeful and guided by the codes of the underworld."
The detention of Tymosenko last week has raised criticism of Ukraine's leader to a new level.
"One thing is clear: the signing of an agreement celebrated with champagne and salmon canapés, while one Ukrainian opposition politician after another disappears behind prison walls, would be a sad comedy."
The 'Economist' calls president Yanukovych: "thuggish, vengeful and guided by the codes of the underworld."
The detention of Tymosenko last week has raised criticism of Ukraine's leader to a new level.
Tuesday, August 09, 2011
Prejudicial statement from PoR morons
This from a highly prejudicial statement [in goofy English], on the Party of Regions' website:
"Tymoshenko is being judged because in 2009 she forged the documents of national importance - the directives of the Cabinet of Ministers on negotiations with the Russian party and signing the contract on gas supply and transit of gas from the Russian Federation. In these directives the government, accountable to people, determines: what gas price Ukraine can agree, what price on gas transit through its territory should be, what volumes of gas Ukraine is planning to consume and so on.
When making a faked document ex-prime minister knew that the Ukrainian government had refused to support the content of written by her directives, because the conditions of gas supply and transit, determined there, were extremely disadvantageous and discriminatory for Ukraine.
However, according to Tymoshenko’s instructions, the forged document titled "Directives", was produced, signed personally by her and a seal of the Cabinet of Ministers was attached.
Using this fake, Tymoshenko made the leaders of "Naftogaz Ukraine" to sign the agreement, providing dramatic, unjustified increase in gas prices since 2010 and onerous conditions, depriving Ukraine for 10 years of the possibility to cancel the agreement."
Prejudicial or what? Where is the big word "allegedly"?
A reminder to whoever wrote the above: the court decides what was fake what was not - not PoR propagandists.
No wonder western observers call the Tymoshenko trial a farce, a bad joke, a pantomime, etc. etc..
"Tymoshenko is being judged because in 2009 she forged the documents of national importance - the directives of the Cabinet of Ministers on negotiations with the Russian party and signing the contract on gas supply and transit of gas from the Russian Federation. In these directives the government, accountable to people, determines: what gas price Ukraine can agree, what price on gas transit through its territory should be, what volumes of gas Ukraine is planning to consume and so on.
When making a faked document ex-prime minister knew that the Ukrainian government had refused to support the content of written by her directives, because the conditions of gas supply and transit, determined there, were extremely disadvantageous and discriminatory for Ukraine.
However, according to Tymoshenko’s instructions, the forged document titled "Directives", was produced, signed personally by her and a seal of the Cabinet of Ministers was attached.
Using this fake, Tymoshenko made the leaders of "Naftogaz Ukraine" to sign the agreement, providing dramatic, unjustified increase in gas prices since 2010 and onerous conditions, depriving Ukraine for 10 years of the possibility to cancel the agreement."
Prejudicial or what? Where is the big word "allegedly"?
A reminder to whoever wrote the above: the court decides what was fake what was not - not PoR propagandists.
No wonder western observers call the Tymoshenko trial a farce, a bad joke, a pantomime, etc. etc..
Sunday, August 07, 2011
Tymoshenko's defensive errors
Sober analysis of Yulia Tymoshenko's trial is provided by Tetyana Montyan in her latest 'U.P' blog.
She considers Tymoshenko, from the very beginning did not seek the assistance the most professional defence councillors available, with whom she would have to be absolutely open and honest, but used inexperienced lawyers to merely act as pawns and be replaced as the trial progressed, in order to drag out proceedings.
Montyan says the reason for Tymoshenko's mistrust of lawyers is the betrayal of former her legal advisor, Andriy Portnov, whom she took to Moscow to arrange the allegedly dodgy gas deal in 2009. It was he who provided flimsy legal cover for the deal, part of which was the approproriation of billions of dollars worth of gas that may or may not have legally belonged to RosUkrEnergo, possibly in exchange for the promise of a top job for Portnov if Tymoshenko became president. [How often does betrayal figure in Ukrainian politics and history?]
Nevertheless, Montyan suggests that Portnov, a competent lawyer, would almost certainly have pointed out to Tymoshenko the possible dangers of her actions at that time.
But afterwards he falls out with Tymoshenko and switches sides, going to Regiony to 'spill the beans'. It is now Portnov who, behind the scenes, is organising the entire case against Tymoshenko.
Motyan considers Tymoshenko's behaviour in court to be self-destructive, virtually wiping out any chance of benign end, [dare I say soft landing?] to the trial. A competent defence adviser would have presented her case, particularly to the outside world, much better, and would have had a firm grasp of her opponents' position, tactics and strategy, having detailed knowledge from Tymoshenko of what Portnov knows. A competent defence adviser would have been using all inside channels available to come some kind of deal with her PoR opponents, [plea-bargaining or similar I suppose], if at all possible, in order to save face for both sides. Working toward a compromise should never be abandoned..[And Tymoshenko has done this before with PoR, as everyone knows..]
"So, she made a strategic mistake: relying on illusory political perspectives on one hand, and having lost confidence in lawyers on the other, she decided not to defend her flanks with all her might, not to oppose her enemies with the most appropriate weaponry available, not to seek the best way out of this situation - but just act the fool and turn the court proceedings into comic farce.."
Even though her enemies have staged this trial with the intention of neutralising and destroying Tymoshenko as the leader of the opposition, and Ukraine's judicial system has been exposed as a joke, LEvko fears there is some truth in what Montyan says.
She considers Tymoshenko, from the very beginning did not seek the assistance the most professional defence councillors available, with whom she would have to be absolutely open and honest, but used inexperienced lawyers to merely act as pawns and be replaced as the trial progressed, in order to drag out proceedings.
Montyan says the reason for Tymoshenko's mistrust of lawyers is the betrayal of former her legal advisor, Andriy Portnov, whom she took to Moscow to arrange the allegedly dodgy gas deal in 2009. It was he who provided flimsy legal cover for the deal, part of which was the approproriation of billions of dollars worth of gas that may or may not have legally belonged to RosUkrEnergo, possibly in exchange for the promise of a top job for Portnov if Tymoshenko became president. [How often does betrayal figure in Ukrainian politics and history?]
Nevertheless, Montyan suggests that Portnov, a competent lawyer, would almost certainly have pointed out to Tymoshenko the possible dangers of her actions at that time.
But afterwards he falls out with Tymoshenko and switches sides, going to Regiony to 'spill the beans'. It is now Portnov who, behind the scenes, is organising the entire case against Tymoshenko.
Motyan considers Tymoshenko's behaviour in court to be self-destructive, virtually wiping out any chance of benign end, [dare I say soft landing?] to the trial. A competent defence adviser would have presented her case, particularly to the outside world, much better, and would have had a firm grasp of her opponents' position, tactics and strategy, having detailed knowledge from Tymoshenko of what Portnov knows. A competent defence adviser would have been using all inside channels available to come some kind of deal with her PoR opponents, [plea-bargaining or similar I suppose], if at all possible, in order to save face for both sides. Working toward a compromise should never be abandoned..[And Tymoshenko has done this before with PoR, as everyone knows..]
"So, she made a strategic mistake: relying on illusory political perspectives on one hand, and having lost confidence in lawyers on the other, she decided not to defend her flanks with all her might, not to oppose her enemies with the most appropriate weaponry available, not to seek the best way out of this situation - but just act the fool and turn the court proceedings into comic farce.."
Even though her enemies have staged this trial with the intention of neutralising and destroying Tymoshenko as the leader of the opposition, and Ukraine's judicial system has been exposed as a joke, LEvko fears there is some truth in what Montyan says.
Azarov came to gloat
It was inevitable that when PM Mykola Azarov was surprisingly called as a witness for the prosecution on Friday verbal mudslinging would ensue between him and Yulia Tymoshenko, who was conducting her own defence. These two have been calling one another thieves and corruptioneers in public for years.
Why was he called? He was not a member of the Tymoshenko cabinet at the time she allegedly committed the crimes of which she is accused, and he is not an authority on legal aspects of chains of command, government procedure, or areas of responsibility of Ukraine's elected officials.
My hunch is he invited himself into the courtroom for the basest of reasons: in order to humiliate: 'bad-mouth', and gloat over Tymoshenko in her predicament. He even brought his own cameramen to record the event, even though he cannot have been unaware video-recording of trial proceedings had been banned by the judge more than two weeks ago. [Indignant journalists eventually forced Azarov's camera team to leave the courtroom.]
Another of Tymoshenko's most hated foes, Minister for Energy Yuriy Boyko, was lurking in the court corridors, no doubt waiting to 'give her a good kicking' from the witness box too. As this excellent piece from 'Kyiv Post' points out, the role of cash-siphon RosUkrEnergo is at the heart of this trial so it was no coincidence that the day after RUE reared it ugly head again in the courtroom, when Yuriy Yekhanurov gave evidence, Tymoshenko was arrested. She has, of course been striving to rid the country of the parasitic RUE for many years.
The prosecutors have called a total of 38 witnesses. The defence, to date, have only been permitted to call 2, even though they requested 30 present themselves in the court. These were to include members of Tymoshenko's cabinet of ministers, state gas company NaftoHaz Ukrainy and UkrTransHaz officials, as well as representatives from NaftoHaz's auditors, the multinational Ernst and Young.
Tymoshenko's legal councillors throughout the trial have been given risibly little time to prepare their case. There have been days when the case proceeded even though neither defendant nor her council were present.
By western standards the trial has every appearance of a total 'stitch-up' even though everyone knew scrutiny would be intense, hence the deluge of criticism from abroad. Western observers expected court procedures and protocol to be impeccably adhered so that any verdict could be presented as fair and 'above board'. What they got was 'bun-fight'.
The trial recommences tomorrow and still has quite a few days to run. Interest will be even higher than before.
The criticism by Ukraine's prospective European partners has now been so vociferous and wide-ranging that if Tymoshenko continues to be imprisoned a price will eventually have to be paid.
Why was he called? He was not a member of the Tymoshenko cabinet at the time she allegedly committed the crimes of which she is accused, and he is not an authority on legal aspects of chains of command, government procedure, or areas of responsibility of Ukraine's elected officials.
My hunch is he invited himself into the courtroom for the basest of reasons: in order to humiliate: 'bad-mouth', and gloat over Tymoshenko in her predicament. He even brought his own cameramen to record the event, even though he cannot have been unaware video-recording of trial proceedings had been banned by the judge more than two weeks ago. [Indignant journalists eventually forced Azarov's camera team to leave the courtroom.]
Another of Tymoshenko's most hated foes, Minister for Energy Yuriy Boyko, was lurking in the court corridors, no doubt waiting to 'give her a good kicking' from the witness box too. As this excellent piece from 'Kyiv Post' points out, the role of cash-siphon RosUkrEnergo is at the heart of this trial so it was no coincidence that the day after RUE reared it ugly head again in the courtroom, when Yuriy Yekhanurov gave evidence, Tymoshenko was arrested. She has, of course been striving to rid the country of the parasitic RUE for many years.
The prosecutors have called a total of 38 witnesses. The defence, to date, have only been permitted to call 2, even though they requested 30 present themselves in the court. These were to include members of Tymoshenko's cabinet of ministers, state gas company NaftoHaz Ukrainy and UkrTransHaz officials, as well as representatives from NaftoHaz's auditors, the multinational Ernst and Young.
Tymoshenko's legal councillors throughout the trial have been given risibly little time to prepare their case. There have been days when the case proceeded even though neither defendant nor her council were present.
By western standards the trial has every appearance of a total 'stitch-up' even though everyone knew scrutiny would be intense, hence the deluge of criticism from abroad. Western observers expected court procedures and protocol to be impeccably adhered so that any verdict could be presented as fair and 'above board'. What they got was 'bun-fight'.
The trial recommences tomorrow and still has quite a few days to run. Interest will be even higher than before.
The criticism by Ukraine's prospective European partners has now been so vociferous and wide-ranging that if Tymoshenko continues to be imprisoned a price will eventually have to be paid.
Saturday, August 06, 2011
Why was Tymoshenko locked up today?
So Yulia Tymshenko has been arrested - generating quite a reaction...
After weeks of 'dissing' the court, why now?
Yesterday, Yuriy Yekhanurov, who replaced Tymoshenko as PM after she was sacked by Yushchenko in 2005, was cross-examined by her for several hours in court.
Today the current PM, Mykola Azarov was getting the same treatment. Despite her best efforts, Tymoshenko was continuously prevented from quizzing these two characters about infamous gas intermediary RosUkrEnergo.
In January 2006 Yekhanurov signed a murky gas deal with Gazprom involving RUE which, at the time, even foremost experts in the field could not untangle and interpret. In April last year Azarov did a shady deal with Putin on gas - most controversially linking the price of gas to the lease on the Sevastopol naval base used by the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
Minister of Energy, Yuriy Boyko, a former head of NaftoHaz Ukrainy closely associated with the introduction of RUE into the Russian/Ukrainian gas business, was also about to be called as a witness today. He was pelted by Tymoshenko supporters outside the courthouse.
My guess is these people, Tymoshenko's biggest political opponents, had had enough of the spotlight being thrown on RUE. Hence the court's decision to 'pay back' Tymoshenko and imprison her.
Because she is accused of signing a gas contract in 2009 that was allegedly financially harmful to Ukraine's interests, it was surely not unreasonable for her to bring up the historical background to this deal in the courtroom, to shed some light on why she struck the deal she did.
She is also accused of abuse of power linked to the signing of these 2009 gas contracts, but, most unfairly, her requests for impartial experts in constitutional and government law, and NaftoHaz's external auditors familiar with the company's finances to be called as witnesses for the defence, were denied yesterday. However her biggest political opponents, who inevitably would give biassed evidence, were called. Now she has to pay the price..
'Front Zmin' leader Arseniy Yatsenyuk, until now lukewarm in his support of Tymoshenko, was swift and forthright in his condemnation of today's arrest. "A rubicon has been crossed, democracy has been terminated..." he says.
Today was certainly a watershed...the attitude of European politicians to Ukraine's current authorities will now radically, and probably irreversibly, change..
p.s. Tymoshenko has found a powerful ally - World Heavyweight Boxing Champion Vitaliy Klichko who has interrupted his training and returned to Kyiv at this moment of crisis. He claims Ukraine's democratic gains since independence 20 years ago are at risk..
After weeks of 'dissing' the court, why now?
Yesterday, Yuriy Yekhanurov, who replaced Tymoshenko as PM after she was sacked by Yushchenko in 2005, was cross-examined by her for several hours in court.
Today the current PM, Mykola Azarov was getting the same treatment. Despite her best efforts, Tymoshenko was continuously prevented from quizzing these two characters about infamous gas intermediary RosUkrEnergo.
In January 2006 Yekhanurov signed a murky gas deal with Gazprom involving RUE which, at the time, even foremost experts in the field could not untangle and interpret. In April last year Azarov did a shady deal with Putin on gas - most controversially linking the price of gas to the lease on the Sevastopol naval base used by the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
Minister of Energy, Yuriy Boyko, a former head of NaftoHaz Ukrainy closely associated with the introduction of RUE into the Russian/Ukrainian gas business, was also about to be called as a witness today. He was pelted by Tymoshenko supporters outside the courthouse.
My guess is these people, Tymoshenko's biggest political opponents, had had enough of the spotlight being thrown on RUE. Hence the court's decision to 'pay back' Tymoshenko and imprison her.
Because she is accused of signing a gas contract in 2009 that was allegedly financially harmful to Ukraine's interests, it was surely not unreasonable for her to bring up the historical background to this deal in the courtroom, to shed some light on why she struck the deal she did.
She is also accused of abuse of power linked to the signing of these 2009 gas contracts, but, most unfairly, her requests for impartial experts in constitutional and government law, and NaftoHaz's external auditors familiar with the company's finances to be called as witnesses for the defence, were denied yesterday. However her biggest political opponents, who inevitably would give biassed evidence, were called. Now she has to pay the price..
'Front Zmin' leader Arseniy Yatsenyuk, until now lukewarm in his support of Tymoshenko, was swift and forthright in his condemnation of today's arrest. "A rubicon has been crossed, democracy has been terminated..." he says.
Today was certainly a watershed...the attitude of European politicians to Ukraine's current authorities will now radically, and probably irreversibly, change..
p.s. Tymoshenko has found a powerful ally - World Heavyweight Boxing Champion Vitaliy Klichko who has interrupted his training and returned to Kyiv at this moment of crisis. He claims Ukraine's democratic gains since independence 20 years ago are at risk..
Wednesday, August 03, 2011
Will instinct of self-preservation amongst Ukraine's ruling elite now kick in?
Oleksiy Krasnopyorov has posted an interesting blog about Ukraine's ruling elites and the effect Yulia Tymoshenko's trial is having on them.
This elite has always been a rather amorphous bunch; many have switched from political party to political party, [and even back again] whenever this suits their business and personal interests. They may 'kick lumps' out of one another on political talk shows or in parliament, but can be seen together later in convivial conversation at swanky restaurants and parties. Their business interests may sometimes clash, and sometimes coincide. They drive the same expensive automobiles and wear the same elite brand clothes. In the past, unwritten rules of mutual conduct have generally been observed.
With the start of legal precedings against Tymoshenko matters have changed.
Krasnopyorov notes that the evidence provided by witnesses for the prosecution during the trial, to date has, curiously, been neutral or perhaps even supportive of Tymoshenko's case, [in contrast to their previous testimony to prosecutors]. He immediately discounts honourable or noble motives and suggest another possible reason.
He says that the instinct of self-preservation amongst the "political class' has come to the fore. They are beginning to realise that if Tymoshenko, the leading opponent of the current president and administration is imprisoned, no-one can be absolutely sure the same fate does not await them in the future. If Tymoshenko, one of the biggest beasts in the jungle, can be brought down, it would be child's playto 'take out' anyone else in the months and years to come.
If Tymoshenko is imprisoned the entire political class will become compliant and fearful, demotivated from voicing any alternatives to policies proposed by the ruling powers.
The situation right now shows fear already exists and is widespread, so the current regime has already partially achieved its aim, claims Krasnopyorov.
We can only speculate which emotion is the stronger: banal fear, or the instinct of self-preservation. The political-legal realities of the circumstances in which we will live in the near future depend on this, he concludes.
This elite has always been a rather amorphous bunch; many have switched from political party to political party, [and even back again] whenever this suits their business and personal interests. They may 'kick lumps' out of one another on political talk shows or in parliament, but can be seen together later in convivial conversation at swanky restaurants and parties. Their business interests may sometimes clash, and sometimes coincide. They drive the same expensive automobiles and wear the same elite brand clothes. In the past, unwritten rules of mutual conduct have generally been observed.
With the start of legal precedings against Tymoshenko matters have changed.
Krasnopyorov notes that the evidence provided by witnesses for the prosecution during the trial, to date has, curiously, been neutral or perhaps even supportive of Tymoshenko's case, [in contrast to their previous testimony to prosecutors]. He immediately discounts honourable or noble motives and suggest another possible reason.
He says that the instinct of self-preservation amongst the "political class' has come to the fore. They are beginning to realise that if Tymoshenko, the leading opponent of the current president and administration is imprisoned, no-one can be absolutely sure the same fate does not await them in the future. If Tymoshenko, one of the biggest beasts in the jungle, can be brought down, it would be child's playto 'take out' anyone else in the months and years to come.
If Tymoshenko is imprisoned the entire political class will become compliant and fearful, demotivated from voicing any alternatives to policies proposed by the ruling powers.
The situation right now shows fear already exists and is widespread, so the current regime has already partially achieved its aim, claims Krasnopyorov.
We can only speculate which emotion is the stronger: banal fear, or the instinct of self-preservation. The political-legal realities of the circumstances in which we will live in the near future depend on this, he concludes.
Sunday, July 31, 2011
Tymoshenko acquittal unlikely despite weak case
Leviy Bereg' Chief editor Sonya Koshkina writes about the "idiotic situation" into which the presidential administration has blundered by proceeding with the gas case against Yulia Tymoshenko, in a recent 'L.B.' article.
She describes four possible outcomes: full acquittal, a suspended sentence which would prevent Tymoshenko from standing for public office, a "light custodial sentence", or a full 7 to 10 year 'stretch'.
Full acquittal is most unlikely - she give the following reasons:
- The stupidity of the authorities in pursuing Tymoshenko would be fully exposed.
- Tymoshenko would again be a focus around which all 'anti-PoR' politicians could rally.
- Weakness of the authorities would be exposed to the electorate - reducing even further Yanukovych's fading popularity ratings.
- Weakness of the authorities would be revealed to other elites in the regions, and to members of the power structures, security services, police etc.
- The system of manual control of the court system by the authorities would be destroyed.
Tymoshenko's removal from the field of battle is the only way PoR's path would be clear to completely dominate Ukrainian politics [and probably turn Ukraine into yet another semi-authoritarian, 'managed democracy', post-Soviet state]. But any custodial sentence has a major drawback - it could well lead to dramatic economic consequences because of the chill in relations with the EU and the rest of the western world. These would hit all of Ukraine's citizens, rich and poor, and PoR are, if nothing else, a party of big business.
Meanwhile 'Front for Change' party leader Arseniy Yatseniuk, speaking to Kanal 5 TV recently, reckons the case against Yulia Tymoshenko is falling apart. He forecasts prosecutors "will be able, at most, to accuse Tymoshenko of negligence.... bring in a suspended sentence and [she will be granted] unconditional amnesty on Independence Day [with the possibility for Tymoshenko to run for parliament in the 2012 elections]". Like everyone else, he takes it as read that Tymoshenko will be found guilty as charged. Perhaps by suggesting such a 'get out of jail free' scheme he is trying to help Yanukovych ameliorate in some small way the damage that would be caused by full acquittal.
However, numerous blatant [deliberate?] procedural transgressions by the trial judge, mean inevitable appeals against a guilty verdict will be submitted to a higher court. Tymoshenko has not been permitted any defence attorney for several days now - astonishing in a case that could result in a 10 year jail sentence. And there are other cases pending against Tymoshenko which could be pulled out of the hat at any time ...
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Tymoshenko Case and the Rule of Law in Ukraine - warnings...
In this Centre for European Policy Studies commentary, Michael Emerson surveys recent developments in the case against Yulia Tymoshenko in Ukraine and their implications for the country’s relations with the EU.
"The [Tymoshenko] case will be followed with great attention, and notably in the European Parliament which will have in due course to ratify the proposed Association Agreement. The Parliament is capable legally of stopping the Agreement from entering into force, if the criticisms of the case mount in volume and credibility. Escalation of the controversy has not so far reached the point of this becoming a prospect: best make sure that it does not.'
Other warnings will appear soon, like this one from a former US ambassador to Ukraine:
"..the president of Ukraine should take heed of these warnings [about the disregarding of principles of democracy], or relations between Ukraine and the West could collapse, as could his expectations of entry into the EU, and Yanukovych could be left as a lone player on the world arena."
p.s. Apologists for Yanukovych who predict 'a soft landing' in the Tymoshenko case' fail to understand how autocrats operate.
A command is given - 'Nail Tymoshenko by the end of August!'
Numbskull prosecutors who worked with Yanukovych during the 'wild east' days of the early '90's, click their heels, "Yes sir!' No-one dare suggest there might not be a case to answer..
They scratch around and eventually manage to cobble together a ramshackle case. Their guys are in power..so they can do anything they want... their man is in complete control...what can go wrong? Critically they fail to notice that no-one can explain, and the man-in-the-street cannot understand, what crimes Tymoshenko is actually being accused of.
The wheels of the big machine start to turn..
Maybe because others know better than to accept, the trial is dropped into the lap of an incompetent novice judge. He knows he will be the fall guy if things go wrong, so he has no choice..bulldoze the trial through, no matter what, and deliver a 'guilty' verdict whatever evidence is offered...even if Tymoshenko were to be charged with stealing presents from Santa Claus's grotto in Lapland.
Senior members of Ukrainian bar association are baffled by the conduct of the hapless rookie judge and his "unprecedented"rulings in this trial.
Meanwhile Tymoshenko has been given a wonderful platform from which to deliver withering scorn and venom onto her foes.
Now, particularly after the fiasco of the last few weeks in the Pechersk courthouse, any diversion from Yanukovych's plan will be a massive victory for Tymoshenko, and a humiliation for the president. But if she is locked up, or even given a suspended sentence, the price to be paid on the international front could be huge too..another humiliation for the president. The former US ambassador is already saying Yanukovych is no longer welcome in Washington. How long before they say the same in Europe?
There can be no soft landing..no tied result.. Yanukovych, like all autocrats who place their egos ahead of national interests, will be discredited...and worst of all, the country will lose out..
"The [Tymoshenko] case will be followed with great attention, and notably in the European Parliament which will have in due course to ratify the proposed Association Agreement. The Parliament is capable legally of stopping the Agreement from entering into force, if the criticisms of the case mount in volume and credibility. Escalation of the controversy has not so far reached the point of this becoming a prospect: best make sure that it does not.'
Other warnings will appear soon, like this one from a former US ambassador to Ukraine:
"..the president of Ukraine should take heed of these warnings [about the disregarding of principles of democracy], or relations between Ukraine and the West could collapse, as could his expectations of entry into the EU, and Yanukovych could be left as a lone player on the world arena."
p.s. Apologists for Yanukovych who predict 'a soft landing' in the Tymoshenko case' fail to understand how autocrats operate.
A command is given - 'Nail Tymoshenko by the end of August!'
Numbskull prosecutors who worked with Yanukovych during the 'wild east' days of the early '90's, click their heels, "Yes sir!' No-one dare suggest there might not be a case to answer..
They scratch around and eventually manage to cobble together a ramshackle case. Their guys are in power..so they can do anything they want... their man is in complete control...what can go wrong? Critically they fail to notice that no-one can explain, and the man-in-the-street cannot understand, what crimes Tymoshenko is actually being accused of.
The wheels of the big machine start to turn..
Maybe because others know better than to accept, the trial is dropped into the lap of an incompetent novice judge. He knows he will be the fall guy if things go wrong, so he has no choice..bulldoze the trial through, no matter what, and deliver a 'guilty' verdict whatever evidence is offered...even if Tymoshenko were to be charged with stealing presents from Santa Claus's grotto in Lapland.
Senior members of Ukrainian bar association are baffled by the conduct of the hapless rookie judge and his "unprecedented"rulings in this trial.
Meanwhile Tymoshenko has been given a wonderful platform from which to deliver withering scorn and venom onto her foes.
Now, particularly after the fiasco of the last few weeks in the Pechersk courthouse, any diversion from Yanukovych's plan will be a massive victory for Tymoshenko, and a humiliation for the president. But if she is locked up, or even given a suspended sentence, the price to be paid on the international front could be huge too..another humiliation for the president. The former US ambassador is already saying Yanukovych is no longer welcome in Washington. How long before they say the same in Europe?
There can be no soft landing..no tied result.. Yanukovych, like all autocrats who place their egos ahead of national interests, will be discredited...and worst of all, the country will lose out..
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Portnikov's dire prediction
I'm loosely translating a most gloomy 'end of term' report by the respected independent political journalist Vitaliy Portnikov, published recently in 'Leviy Bereg'.
Portnikov is well known as a regular, popular commentator on 'Shuster Live' and other television programmes. He is a 'Radio Svoboda' presenter, as well as being a prolific writer for Ukrainian and other language newspapers.
This is not a crisis. This is a collapse.
As the summer holiday season gets under way, PM Mykola Azarov is scaring his ministers and fellow countrymen with the world economic crisis and the potentially dangerous turns of events that will soon take place in the United States and European Union.
Translating his comments into everyday language indicates that Azarov and Co. intend to explain away Ukraine's own approaching economic problems by directing the blame elsewhere. But this time the crisis will primarily be Ukrainian, for the following reasons:
1. An inability and determined unwillingness by the incumbent President to discharge his duties properly. Viktor Yanukovych is focused solely on setting himself and his family up in the newly-conquered country, with 'Mezhiryas', helicopters and other bagatelle. He behaves like a typical African President from the 1960's and the 1970's, not having time for affairs of state and being more concerned with hunting lodges and diamond-studded toilets.
2. Incompetence of the Government and its inability to rise to the challenges of new times. The Government is staffed by 'old-school' officials such as Azarov, or contemporary oligarchs, busy lobbying their own interests and businesses. This symbiosis is practically paralysing the work of the executive branch and increases the costs, to crazy levels, of even reasonably intentioned projects, .
3. Total corruption amongst the authorities. If the modest official Vasyl Volga, takes a half-million dollar bribe, then what do the others take? I don't want to even think about this - but corruption has completely paralysed economic opportunities for small and middle-rank businesses and even put a question-mark against the survival of the country's population itself.
4. The commodity-linked nature of the budget-forming sectors of the economy make Ukraine almost totally dependent on the global situation, and this is deteriorating because of unfavourable trends in the economies of the West.
5. Deterioration of relations with the West because of authoritarian trends in internal politics, primarily the case against Tymoshenko. In such a situation, the country's borrowing is at risk, and the government has no money of its own.
6. Deterioration of relations with Russia because of the reluctance of Yanukovych to give up assets to Putin and to the Russian oligarchs. In such situation, new agreements on gas price cannot be counted on, again hitting the economy.
7. Degradation of the power structures. The prosecutor's office and the courts are used as tools to solve political problems and provide cover for business asset 'carve-ups'. The state security service [SBU] has become a holding company under the control of Valeriy Khoroshkovsky. The army in this country is an army of beggars.
8. Complete disinterest of state officials to rectify the situation. Yanukovych is occupied with the construction of helicopter pads [at his residences near Kyiv and in Crimea etc.], his nearest circle compromise him in the West and in Moscow in order to take his place, while the the middle circle compromise the inner circle in Yanukovch's eyes in order to take place of the inner circle. With the increasing crisis all these 'worms in the can' will start to shoot and jail one other. The detention of the Vasyl Volga is just the start.
9. Lack of coordination between the government and the National Bank of Ukraine, and the desire of each of these parties to consider only corporate, and not public interests. A similar situation was observed during Yushchenko's period in office, but with a small diffence. Yushchenko was a banker and least understood what was happening around him.
10. Disoriention amongst the general population, disillusioned with the authorities, but not seeing any alternatives to what is happening, making it impossible for serious reforms to take place.
This is not even a crisis. This is a collapse.
Portnikov is well known as a regular, popular commentator on 'Shuster Live' and other television programmes. He is a 'Radio Svoboda' presenter, as well as being a prolific writer for Ukrainian and other language newspapers.
This is not a crisis. This is a collapse.
As the summer holiday season gets under way, PM Mykola Azarov is scaring his ministers and fellow countrymen with the world economic crisis and the potentially dangerous turns of events that will soon take place in the United States and European Union.
Translating his comments into everyday language indicates that Azarov and Co. intend to explain away Ukraine's own approaching economic problems by directing the blame elsewhere. But this time the crisis will primarily be Ukrainian, for the following reasons:
1. An inability and determined unwillingness by the incumbent President to discharge his duties properly. Viktor Yanukovych is focused solely on setting himself and his family up in the newly-conquered country, with 'Mezhiryas', helicopters and other bagatelle. He behaves like a typical African President from the 1960's and the 1970's, not having time for affairs of state and being more concerned with hunting lodges and diamond-studded toilets.
2. Incompetence of the Government and its inability to rise to the challenges of new times. The Government is staffed by 'old-school' officials such as Azarov, or contemporary oligarchs, busy lobbying their own interests and businesses. This symbiosis is practically paralysing the work of the executive branch and increases the costs, to crazy levels, of even reasonably intentioned projects, .
3. Total corruption amongst the authorities. If the modest official Vasyl Volga, takes a half-million dollar bribe, then what do the others take? I don't want to even think about this - but corruption has completely paralysed economic opportunities for small and middle-rank businesses and even put a question-mark against the survival of the country's population itself.
4. The commodity-linked nature of the budget-forming sectors of the economy make Ukraine almost totally dependent on the global situation, and this is deteriorating because of unfavourable trends in the economies of the West.
5. Deterioration of relations with the West because of authoritarian trends in internal politics, primarily the case against Tymoshenko. In such a situation, the country's borrowing is at risk, and the government has no money of its own.
6. Deterioration of relations with Russia because of the reluctance of Yanukovych to give up assets to Putin and to the Russian oligarchs. In such situation, new agreements on gas price cannot be counted on, again hitting the economy.
7. Degradation of the power structures. The prosecutor's office and the courts are used as tools to solve political problems and provide cover for business asset 'carve-ups'. The state security service [SBU] has become a holding company under the control of Valeriy Khoroshkovsky. The army in this country is an army of beggars.
8. Complete disinterest of state officials to rectify the situation. Yanukovych is occupied with the construction of helicopter pads [at his residences near Kyiv and in Crimea etc.], his nearest circle compromise him in the West and in Moscow in order to take his place, while the the middle circle compromise the inner circle in Yanukovch's eyes in order to take place of the inner circle. With the increasing crisis all these 'worms in the can' will start to shoot and jail one other. The detention of the Vasyl Volga is just the start.
9. Lack of coordination between the government and the National Bank of Ukraine, and the desire of each of these parties to consider only corporate, and not public interests. A similar situation was observed during Yushchenko's period in office, but with a small diffence. Yushchenko was a banker and least understood what was happening around him.
10. Disoriention amongst the general population, disillusioned with the authorities, but not seeing any alternatives to what is happening, making it impossible for serious reforms to take place.
This is not even a crisis. This is a collapse.
Saturday, July 23, 2011
Freudian slip by the ambassador?
Yesterday, the ambassador of Ukraine to the UK, Volodymyr Khandogiy, had a letter published in the "Financial Times" entitled 'Government of Ukraine respects judicial process'. He takes issue with an editorial published in the same paper several days earlier entitled 'Ukraine has its Yukos moment'. [See previous blog]
Khandogiy writes: "Mr Khodorkovsky..was arrested by masked commandos, jailed and then "caged" during his trial [in Russia]. There is no comparison whatsoever between Yukos and the open process taking place in Ukraine."
Former Ukrainian PM Yulia Tymoshenko's Minister of Internal Affairs, Yuriy Lutsenko, was arrested on December 26th last year by masked commandos, just like Mr Khodorkovsky, and is still under arrest. He has been charged with trivial, if not to say preposterous charges, e.g. allegedly overspending on flowers in preparation the 2009 Militsia Day festivities, and overpaying his driver. During his trial which is currently in progress, Lutsenko is always "caged" - just like Mr Kodorkovsky.
An April 28 report by The Danish Helsinki Committee on Human Rights cited numerous human rights violations, and a large number of EU observers and politicians have expressed concern recently - just as in the Khodorkovsky case.
[Read more here and here
Khandogiy writes: "Mr Khodorkovsky..was arrested by masked commandos, jailed and then "caged" during his trial [in Russia]. There is no comparison whatsoever between Yukos and the open process taking place in Ukraine."
Former Ukrainian PM Yulia Tymoshenko's Minister of Internal Affairs, Yuriy Lutsenko, was arrested on December 26th last year by masked commandos, just like Mr Khodorkovsky, and is still under arrest. He has been charged with trivial, if not to say preposterous charges, e.g. allegedly overspending on flowers in preparation the 2009 Militsia Day festivities, and overpaying his driver. During his trial which is currently in progress, Lutsenko is always "caged" - just like Mr Kodorkovsky.
An April 28 report by The Danish Helsinki Committee on Human Rights cited numerous human rights violations, and a large number of EU observers and politicians have expressed concern recently - just as in the Khodorkovsky case.
[Read more here and here
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Response to 'FT' editorial on Ukraine
Today, Amanda Paul, of the European Policy Centre, Brussels, has responded to yesterday's 'FT' editorial [posted in previous blog]. in a letter to the editor.
Ms. Paul, who has connections to Party of Regions, speculatively claims: "certain politicians and political groups in the EU, those that are either close to the Tymoshenko bloc, or who reject the idea of Ukraine one day receiving a membership perspective, are using the case to sabotage Ukraine’s efforts to further integrate into the EU.."
She does not provide any details. I suggest these assertions are mere conjecture.
She adds: "Mr Yanukovich has done himself no favours by pursuing Ms Tymoshenko so fiercely.." inadvertently adding credibility to the allegation that it is the president himself who is instigating the assault on his greatest political rival.
She concludes with the glib, often-heard declaration that the signing of a free trade agreement would reduce corruption and improve the rule of law and democracy in Ukraine...
Surely the onus is on the current Ukrainian authorities to demonstrate they are making progress in reducing corruption and improving the rule of law and democracy, before being admitted into the club...
Is this not reasonable?
The EU will not fix Ukraine's problems...right now they have plenty of their own...
Ms. Paul, who has connections to Party of Regions, speculatively claims: "certain politicians and political groups in the EU, those that are either close to the Tymoshenko bloc, or who reject the idea of Ukraine one day receiving a membership perspective, are using the case to sabotage Ukraine’s efforts to further integrate into the EU.."
She does not provide any details. I suggest these assertions are mere conjecture.
She adds: "Mr Yanukovich has done himself no favours by pursuing Ms Tymoshenko so fiercely.." inadvertently adding credibility to the allegation that it is the president himself who is instigating the assault on his greatest political rival.
She concludes with the glib, often-heard declaration that the signing of a free trade agreement would reduce corruption and improve the rule of law and democracy in Ukraine...
Surely the onus is on the current Ukrainian authorities to demonstrate they are making progress in reducing corruption and improving the rule of law and democracy, before being admitted into the club...
Is this not reasonable?
The EU will not fix Ukraine's problems...right now they have plenty of their own...
'FT' says EU should suspend talks with Ukraine
This from the 'Financial Times':
Ukraine has its Yukos moment
Ukraine’s president Viktor Yanukovich has justifiably been accused of setting up a “Putin lite” system since his election 18 months ago. Power has been concentrated in his hands, media criticism stifled. Extending the analogy, he has now found his Yukos case.
The accused in Kiev is not, like Russia’s Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a billionaire oligarch. She is Yulia Tymoshenko, the former prime minister and Orange revolution co-leader. As in Russia, few in Ukrainian business and politics are whiter than white; shades of grey abound. So the legal assault on Ms Tymoshenko, as with Mr Khodorkovsky, looks like selective justice and a politically-motivated attempt to neutralise an opponent.
Mr Yanukovich’s camp insists that the action is part of a broader corruption clampdown, probing 400 as yet unnamed current officials. Yet nearly all of the high-ranking figures charged to date are Tymoshenko associates.
Moreover, while she faces proliferating investigations, the charge on which Ms Tymoshenko is on trial – carrying a potential 10-year sentence – is highly questionable. She is accused of exceeding her authority in agreeing a 2009 gas deal with Russia’s Vladimir Putin at an excessively high price.
This raises questions over whether policy steps, particularly during a crisis, should be subject to criminal charges. The European Union welcomed the deal in question as it restored Russian gas flows to Ukraine and further west after a shut-off, and removed an opaque intermediary from the Russia-Ukraine gas trade.
Faced with western criticism, Mr Yanukovich’s circle is rumoured to be seeking a face-saving solution – say, a suspended sentence, keeping Ms Tymoshenko out of jail but also out of the next elections. The international community should reject that kind of cynical manoeuvre.
For the EU, in particular, has far greater leverage over Ukraine than over Russia. It is negotiating a free trade and association agreement with Kiev. EU officials seem reluctant to link the talks with Mr Yanukovich’s democratic record for fear of pushing Kiev back into the arms of Russia, which is trying hard to restore its influence over Ukraine.
Yet Kiev has made clear it wants and needs the EU deal, calling closer European integration Ukraine’s “strategic choice”.
That gives Brussels power it should use – to suspend talks if the assault on Ms Tymoshenko continues. Trade privileges should be linked to values. And the values displayed in this case fall far short of those demanded by the EU.
LEvko says: Ironic that the 'FT' supported Yanukovych in the 2010 presidential elections...
Ukraine has its Yukos moment
Ukraine’s president Viktor Yanukovich has justifiably been accused of setting up a “Putin lite” system since his election 18 months ago. Power has been concentrated in his hands, media criticism stifled. Extending the analogy, he has now found his Yukos case.
The accused in Kiev is not, like Russia’s Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a billionaire oligarch. She is Yulia Tymoshenko, the former prime minister and Orange revolution co-leader. As in Russia, few in Ukrainian business and politics are whiter than white; shades of grey abound. So the legal assault on Ms Tymoshenko, as with Mr Khodorkovsky, looks like selective justice and a politically-motivated attempt to neutralise an opponent.
Mr Yanukovich’s camp insists that the action is part of a broader corruption clampdown, probing 400 as yet unnamed current officials. Yet nearly all of the high-ranking figures charged to date are Tymoshenko associates.
Moreover, while she faces proliferating investigations, the charge on which Ms Tymoshenko is on trial – carrying a potential 10-year sentence – is highly questionable. She is accused of exceeding her authority in agreeing a 2009 gas deal with Russia’s Vladimir Putin at an excessively high price.
This raises questions over whether policy steps, particularly during a crisis, should be subject to criminal charges. The European Union welcomed the deal in question as it restored Russian gas flows to Ukraine and further west after a shut-off, and removed an opaque intermediary from the Russia-Ukraine gas trade.
Faced with western criticism, Mr Yanukovich’s circle is rumoured to be seeking a face-saving solution – say, a suspended sentence, keeping Ms Tymoshenko out of jail but also out of the next elections. The international community should reject that kind of cynical manoeuvre.
For the EU, in particular, has far greater leverage over Ukraine than over Russia. It is negotiating a free trade and association agreement with Kiev. EU officials seem reluctant to link the talks with Mr Yanukovich’s democratic record for fear of pushing Kiev back into the arms of Russia, which is trying hard to restore its influence over Ukraine.
Yet Kiev has made clear it wants and needs the EU deal, calling closer European integration Ukraine’s “strategic choice”.
That gives Brussels power it should use – to suspend talks if the assault on Ms Tymoshenko continues. Trade privileges should be linked to values. And the values displayed in this case fall far short of those demanded by the EU.
LEvko says: Ironic that the 'FT' supported Yanukovych in the 2010 presidential elections...
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Revenge of the oligarchs
A recent detailed article in the prestigious 'Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung' entitled "Revenge of the oligarchs" describes how two of the top three leading lights of the Orange Revolution, Yulia Tymoshenko and Yuriy Lutsenko, are now subjects of political repression. [The third, Viktor Yushchenko sold his soul years ago.]
Lutsenko, who has been in jail for over half a year, is paying a particularly high price for 'crossing' two of Ukraine's biggest oligarchs when he was minister of the interior.
According to Konrad Schuller, the author of the the article, the current leadership of Ukraine wants to intimidate the opposition in the country and create a climate of fear.
Schuller writes that shortly after the Orange Revolution, oligarchs who came to dominate the Ukrainian economy following battles over the redistribution of property and assets in the 1990's, frequently with the help of guns and explosives, were terrified that they would be brought to justice for their alleged criminal behaviour. One of them, the current Deputy Prime Minister, Boris Kolesnikov, spent several months behind bars, and Ukraine's richest man, Rinat Akhmetov, one of the president's main sponsors, was forced to watch as armoured vehicles enter the grounds of his residence while police searched the premises.
Without doubt, articles such as this one and this one in western media, and the ever more strident concern expressed by leading European and North American politicians about the criminal cases against Tymoshenko and Lutsenko are causing significant harm to Ukraine's image; but by naming the two oligarchs, the FAZ article could potentially harm their individual businesses too.
It would be reasonable to surmise it is the 'gas people' in Yanukovych's circle that are driving the prosecution cases against Tymoshenko rather that the 'metallurgist' faction; but it could be the latter who could suffer most if free trade agreements are delayed/cancelled, or foreign direct investments curtailed.
Last Friday the German ambassador Dr. Hans-Jürgen Heimsoeth attended the 'Alice in Wonderland' pre-trial hearing of the case against Yulia Tymoshenko in person. He listened in bafflement as the judge and defendant argued for over an hour as to whether Tymoshenko should stand when addressing the court, as demanded by the young judge. Eventually Tymoshenko was thrown out of the courtroom for refusing to do so.
Yanukovych and his team must have weighted up the benefits and possible damage that would be caused when they made the decision to embark on these criminal cases against Tymoshenko and Lutsenko, but once started there is no turning back..and rifts inside the ruling party could be widening too. Maybe it seemed a good idea at the time, but most likely they were just following the gangsters' iron rule: never give your enemies a second chance...
p.s. French newspapers are asking questions about Yanukovych's palatial Mezhyhirya residence with its 70 vehicle garage, 350,000 Euro bathroom, helicopter hangar, etc. etc.
Lutsenko, who has been in jail for over half a year, is paying a particularly high price for 'crossing' two of Ukraine's biggest oligarchs when he was minister of the interior.
According to Konrad Schuller, the author of the the article, the current leadership of Ukraine wants to intimidate the opposition in the country and create a climate of fear.
Schuller writes that shortly after the Orange Revolution, oligarchs who came to dominate the Ukrainian economy following battles over the redistribution of property and assets in the 1990's, frequently with the help of guns and explosives, were terrified that they would be brought to justice for their alleged criminal behaviour. One of them, the current Deputy Prime Minister, Boris Kolesnikov, spent several months behind bars, and Ukraine's richest man, Rinat Akhmetov, one of the president's main sponsors, was forced to watch as armoured vehicles enter the grounds of his residence while police searched the premises.
Without doubt, articles such as this one and this one in western media, and the ever more strident concern expressed by leading European and North American politicians about the criminal cases against Tymoshenko and Lutsenko are causing significant harm to Ukraine's image; but by naming the two oligarchs, the FAZ article could potentially harm their individual businesses too.
It would be reasonable to surmise it is the 'gas people' in Yanukovych's circle that are driving the prosecution cases against Tymoshenko rather that the 'metallurgist' faction; but it could be the latter who could suffer most if free trade agreements are delayed/cancelled, or foreign direct investments curtailed.
Last Friday the German ambassador Dr. Hans-Jürgen Heimsoeth attended the 'Alice in Wonderland' pre-trial hearing of the case against Yulia Tymoshenko in person. He listened in bafflement as the judge and defendant argued for over an hour as to whether Tymoshenko should stand when addressing the court, as demanded by the young judge. Eventually Tymoshenko was thrown out of the courtroom for refusing to do so.
Yanukovych and his team must have weighted up the benefits and possible damage that would be caused when they made the decision to embark on these criminal cases against Tymoshenko and Lutsenko, but once started there is no turning back..and rifts inside the ruling party could be widening too. Maybe it seemed a good idea at the time, but most likely they were just following the gangsters' iron rule: never give your enemies a second chance...
p.s. French newspapers are asking questions about Yanukovych's palatial Mezhyhirya residence with its 70 vehicle garage, 350,000 Euro bathroom, helicopter hangar, etc. etc.
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Ukrainians consider trials against opposition leaders unjust
Last Friday's 'Shuster Live' programme was particularly bad-tempered - opposition parliamentary deputies eventually walked out in protest because of constant interruptions and harassment by Party of Regions' spokesmen.
Despite the PoR attack-dogs' vociferous protests, and their attempts to 'talk-down' former president Leonid Kravchuk, the latter, with the support of a visibly-annoyed Shuster, managed to conduct a straw poll among the supposedly representative studio audience.
Responding to the question, "Is that which is taking place in the Pechersk courthouse [where former PM Yulia Tymoshenko and former minister of Internal Affairs, Yuriy Lutsenko are being tried] justice?" 84% of the studio audience said 'No', 16% said 'Yes'.
Responding to the question, "Is Tymoshenko's behaviour in the court correct?" 60% said 'No', 40% said 'Yes', i.e. a majority do not like the courtroom being turned into a zoo.
Nevertheless, as I mentioned in a previous blog, a majority of Ukrainians, as well as Western observers have probably already made up their mind and decided these criminal cases are politically motivated.
The voting results in the studio would seem to support the notion that many 'undecideds', and many Yanukovych supporters, also perceive these criminal cases as being politically motivated.
My guess is Ukrainians are getting rather scared that too much power is being accumulated by the current Yanukovych-led power 'vertikal'.
Saturday, July 09, 2011
Breathaking arrogance of Yanukovych and PoR deputies
Today, [Friday] laws on pension reforms which will directly affect the lives of every Ukrainian citizen, were passed in parliament. Now every Ukrainian will have to work several years longer before achieving retirement.
248 deputies voted in support of the motion even though it seems only 143 deputies were actually registered to vote in the parliament building.
Multiple voting by deputies is a blantant contravention of the country's Constitution, but takes place with numbing regularity.
Today the majority of deputies were not even bothered to turn up to work for a few hours to discuss such a vital issue, probably because it was the last day of the session before the summer recess. Their decision means Ukrainians now have to work many hundreds of days longer. I guess many of the missing deputies were just too busy packing their suitcases and checking their flight tickets, or maybe had flown out already.
Also today, President Yanukovych, who is 'Guarantor of the Constitution', was asked at a press conference why his younger, parliamentary deputy son, Viktor, had voted in the past in parliament for other deputies in their absence, thus contravening to the Constitution.
His reply? - "When children are picked on - this is something else. I assure you I am not ashamed of my children, my family....When children are dragged into this dirt into which you are trying to drag my children, my family. You could pick on my grandchildren, the oldest is 11 years old - come on, let's go after them too."
[Video of Yanuk jr. voting for four deputies here]
LEvko says: What toe-rags these people are - bloated and drunk with power...there can be no better example of the disregard they have to those they are supposed to serve...half of Ukrainian men will now will probably die before they retire, at the new retirement age of 63. [Male life expectancy in Ukraine is just under 63...]
Reminder: Yanukovych's nickname at the time he was serving his two prison sentences in a young offenders' prison was 'kham' - means boor or lout. I can see why..
Saturday, July 02, 2011
Judge in Lutsenko case compromised
Serious doubts have been cast on the impartiality of judge Serhiy Vovk, who is presiding over the trial of former Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko.
Documents have been published revealing a criminal case had been opened against Vovk in 2007 concerning the illegal appropriation of land belonging to 'UkrProfOzdorovnutsya'. The judge had allegedly intentionally altered the designation of this land, but in 2009, a Kyiv Appeal Court annulled Vovk's rulings in these matters.
Yesterday, in court, Lytsenko demanded Vovk stand-down because he could not be considered impartial, but Vovk refused to go.
Lutsenko added that the criminal case against Vovk was initiated after an audit by the Ministry of Internal Affairs audit which took place at a time when he himself headed the ministry, in other words Vovk could use the trial to settle old scores and 'get even'.
Lutsenko claimed he informed the Prosecutor's Office during the investigation of his own case that Vovk was 'dirty', but was told that no case against the judge existed.
The press service of the Prosecutor General's Office have now officially denied the existence of any criminal case against Vovk. "We have to report that a decision by a college of judges of the Chamber of Criminal Cases of the Supreme Court on February 23, 2010 upheld the decision of the district court of Kyiv Holosiyivski court two years ago (16 July 2009) to rule as unlawful the decision to institute criminal proceedings against Serhiy Vovk ".
Lutsenko claimed the case against Vovk could be reopened in the event the court "makes the wrong decision..", in other words 'vlasti' have Vovk by the 'short and curlies'..
All sound very grubby...You would think that because Lutsenko's trial is being closely scrutinised and because Ukraine's judicial system has such a terrible reputation everything possible would be done to ensure everything was as clean and above board as possible, so why not change the judge? But this trial not about justice, it's about macho posturing and revenge ..
p.s. More 'dirt' on Vovk to follow?
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