Monday, November 01, 2004

More election

Reuters reported last night that anonymous exit polls had Yuschenko at 45% and Yanukovych at 39%. Non-anonymous exit polls has it tighter at 41% Yuschenko to 40% Yanukovych. The anonymous would be more accurate because of the threats that are hanging out there against people who vote for Yuschenko but I think that even the anonymous polls are understating the support because of that same fact. People don't want to publicize that they are voting for someone that might get them in trouble, even if the exit poller says it is anonymous. One TV station reported last might that 43% of the people are wary of saying who they voted for. To their credit they also reported some of the polling problems like thousands of people off the voting rolls in Kiev and Western Ukraine. (East Ukraine does not appear to have had these problems. They are the seat of Yanukovych's support.) But the station had the exit polling backwards with 43% for Yanukovych and 39% Yuschenko. That is to be expected as the government has put pressure on them to toe the party line. But they weren't completely silent on the irregularities which is a good thing.

A consortium of non-governmental agencies had Yuschenko at 45% with Yanukovych 37%.

Right now (10:30 a.m.) the official figures are 41.82% Yanukovych and 37.53% with 82% of the precincts reporting in. That is significantly different from the exit polling. A representative of the OSCE today is maintaining that there is reason to suspect the result of the election. They will publish their official findings later today.

So it looks like it will go to a run-off. One thing that we didn't see before the election that we are now seeing on TV is commercials about how democracy is not revolution. I guess they think they can calm the masses with mass propaganda. That is probably an old reflex for these guys.

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