Monday, November 29, 2004

Possibilities

In an Reuters article, some possible outcomes to the crisis are outlined.

The following are some of the scenarios for how the situation could develop, based on analyst remarks and speculation by diplomats.

* Yushchenko camp launches strike, hitting freight and commercial traffic and closing plants and factories in Kiev and western regions. With Ukrainian authorities also facing strong Western criticism over the election, the poll result is scrapped and a date is set for a new run-off.

* Yushchenko camp launches strike. But powerful industrialised regions in the east that support Yanukovich keep working normally and strike flops. Demonstrations run out of steam and fizzle out. Yanukovich is sworn in.

* Faced with a strike and continuing streets demonstrations, authorities send in security forces to break up pro-Yushchenko demonstrators overnight. After clashes, the opposition backs down. Yanukovich is sworn in. Ukrainian authorities ride out Western criticism.

* Security forces break up pro-Yushchenko demonstrators. Western and some central regions declare autonomy. Civil conflict erupts. An international crisis erupts, pitting Russia against the West.

* West piles diplomatic pressure on Ukraine. Outgoing President Leonid Kuchma, who only reluctantly endorsed Yanukovich, steps in. He declares a state of emergency and says he will stay on to be a guarantor of the constitution.

(I am trying to find a link to it and will link to it when I do.)

It must be kept in mind that these are possible outcomes only, the possibility of which are considered solely in the abstract. Given this fact, each is as good as any other.

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