Monday, February 16, 2009

More gloomy predictions

More gloomy news from Europe here

A portion:

"Bank analysts predict that Ukraine is heading for a historic default on its national debt, in a scenario that could complicate EU-Ukraine relations and have an impact on the recent Russia-Ukraine gas transit deal.

"The market is pricing in a probability of sovereign default of almost 90 percent," Commerzbank analyst Ulrich Leuchtmann told EUobserver on Monday (16 February).


Anonymous said...

That'si90% of what? Chances that they will default or 90% of the value of the default.

elmer said...

It means this:

The market thinks that there is a 90% probability of a sovereign default by Ukraine.

Therefore, in the market, prices have been and are being adjusted, taking this probability into account.

Anonymous said...

Thanks emler that's what I thought it meant but it was not clear in the article I hope that the author also shares you view.