There is ever-mounting evidence that Yanukovych is employing blatant stalling tactics in regard to her release, calling into question the sincerity of his desire to move Ukraine in a westward direction. [Constant raised hopes, 'false dawns' and repeated tales of imminent release may be part of these tactics.]
Other members of the Customs Union, Belarus and Kazakhstan are going distinctly 'wobbly' on the Russians. This may explain the desperate measures to which Putin and his people are resorting, in an attempt to bully, and lately possibly to woo Ukraine back into Russia's sphere of influence.
Koshkina outlines one scheme allegedly being prepared by Yanukovych's team:
Tymoshenko is due to appear in UESU case hearings in a Kharkiv court in on October 25th. The prosecutors or possibly the penitentiary service may appeal to the hearing judge with a request to let Tymoshenko go abroad for treatment for a limited period, e.g. six months on the grounds of ill health, and then return to complete her sentence and face outstanding charges. The judge will naturally agree to this...But will Tymoshenko? If she does not, then it will be her who will be accused of having caused any possible failure to get the AA deal sealed in Vilnius in November. If no deal is concluded then, according to Koshkina it will be 'strict regime holidays' for the whole country [not just for YVT.]
Your bloggers view? It has long been apparent that Yanukovych has not been negotiating with the EU in good faith, despite appeals from every quarter of the globe, from many authorities, leading politicians etc.
Some European figures are already talking in terms of a pessimistic scenario. E.g. Vice-President of the European People's Party, Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, says: "There is no time now, and Ukraine's chances of signing the Association Agreement in November at the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius is decreasing rapidly. Ukraine must immediately demonstrate real progress. If it does not do this, then the EU will not sign an agreement solely on the basis of pure rhetoric."
Seasoned German Euro-deputy, Rebecca Harms comments: "Stubbornness in this dispute is blocking [progress for] the whole of Ukraine. I frequently ask myself why such irrationality is present on this issue? I first encountered this in examples of political conflicts in Eastern Europe". Politicians in Berlin and Brussels say that the dragging matters out until the last moment is very risky for Kyiv. 28 EU member states and the European Parliament should vote in support of the Association Agreement . This process can take years. Therefore, according to Rebecca Harms, Ukrainian government should not be taking such risks. [Source]
It has been generally accepted by western leaders that Tymoshenko's gas trial was a travesty of justice, and that she is a victim of selective justice..so why should she pay any fine? And what if the European Court of Human Rights rule in her favour again in the coming months and declares her human rights were abused during this trial? Will she get a refund?
Is Yanukovych stringing the Europeans along all these months in order to eventually get a better deal with Putin? This arrangement could eventually mean the end of messy elections with pesky observers, if it becomes a necessity. The overarching aim of this man is to copy other CIS leaders and remain in power; eventually enabling his son Oleksandr, whose business structures are already close to those of Putin's, to take over at the helm some point in the future...
The cat-and-mouse game over Tymoshenko, the bluffing and counter-bluffing, is a good indicator what EU - Ukraine relationship will look like in the future if the current Ukrainian leadership remain in place, irrespective whether theAA and DCFTA is signed or not. It's time to ditch the whole deal - not just kick the can down the road, but kick it into the long grass....[bad case of mixed metaphors..sorry]