Wednesday, October 16, 2013

EU's patience nearly running out...

Sonya Koshkina,in her latest piece, entitled 'Strict regime holiday' makes some interesting points in the drawn out, 'will they, won't they release Tymoshenko' saga. Here are some of them:

There is ever-mounting evidence that Yanukovych is employing blatant stalling tactics in regard to her release, calling into question the sincerity of his desire to move Ukraine in a westward direction. [Constant raised hopes, 'false dawns' and repeated tales of imminent release may be part of these tactics.]

Other members of the Customs Union, Belarus and Kazakhstan are going distinctly 'wobbly' on the Russians. This may explain the desperate measures to which Putin and his people are resorting, in an attempt to bully, and lately possibly to woo Ukraine back into Russia's sphere of influence.

Koshkina outlines one scheme allegedly being prepared by Yanukovych's team:

Tymoshenko is due to appear in  UESU case hearings in a Kharkiv court in  on October 25th. The prosecutors or possibly the penitentiary service may appeal to the hearing judge with a request  to let Tymoshenko go abroad for treatment for a limited period, e.g. six months on the grounds of ill health, and then return to complete her sentence and face outstanding charges. The judge will naturally agree to this...But will Tymoshenko? If she does not, then it will be her who will be accused of having caused any possible failure to get the AA deal sealed in Vilnius in November. If no deal is concluded then, according to Koshkina it will be 'strict regime holidays' for the whole country [not just for YVT.]

Your bloggers view? It has long been apparent that Yanukovych has not been negotiating with the EU in good faith, despite appeals from every quarter of the globe, from many authorities, leading politicians etc.

Some European figures are already talking in terms of a pessimistic scenario. E.g.  Vice-President of the European People's Party, Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, says: "There is no time now, and Ukraine's chances of signing the Association Agreement in November at the Eastern Partnership  summit in Vilnius is decreasing rapidly. Ukraine must immediately demonstrate real progress. If it does not do this, then the EU will not sign an agreement solely on the basis of pure rhetoric."

Seasoned German Euro-deputy, Rebecca  Harms comments: "Stubbornness in this dispute is blocking [progress for] the whole of Ukraine. I frequently ask myself why such irrationality is present on this issue? I first encountered this in examples of political conflicts in Eastern Europe". Politicians in Berlin and Brussels say that the dragging matters out until the last moment is very risky for Kyiv. 28 EU member states and the European Parliament should vote in support of the Association Agreement . This process can take years. Therefore, according to Rebecca Harms, Ukrainian government should not be taking such risks. [Source]

Others are humiliatingly dreaming up ever-more convoluted and proposterous schemes to enable Yanukovych to save face. The latest - the president gives her a 'partial pardon', [like a partial pregnancy?] as long as she pays a $200million fine and accepts that she cannot stand for president for three years...

It has been generally accepted by western leaders that Tymoshenko's gas trial was a travesty of justice, and that she is a victim of selective why should she pay any fine? And what if the European Court of Human Rights rule in her favour again in the coming months and declares her human rights were abused during this trial? Will she get a refund?

Is Yanukovych stringing the Europeans along all these months in order to eventually get a better deal with Putin? This arrangement could eventually mean the end of messy elections with pesky observers, if it becomes a necessity. The overarching aim of this man is to copy other CIS leaders and remain in power; eventually enabling his son Oleksandr, whose business structures are already close to those of Putin's, to take over at the helm some point in the future...

The cat-and-mouse game over Tymoshenko, the bluffing and counter-bluffing, is a good indicator what EU - Ukraine relationship will look like in the future if the current Ukrainian leadership remain in place, irrespective whether theAA and DCFTA is signed or not. It's time to ditch the whole deal - not just kick the can down the road, but kick it into the long grass....[bad case of mixed metaphors..sorry]

1 comment:

Bernard said...

If Yanukovych decides to block the association agreement with EU by cowardly insisting on keeping his main political opponent in jail, he will be even more of a paria
among civilized countries than he is today. It seems the only thing he can come up with now, is to attempt the same bluff again that he has done so many times: "promising" that a solution will be found, but it just takes a bit more time. I cannot imagine that EU will be cheated by this attempted bluff, they should know the true character of Yanukovych by now. Even Yanukovychs most fanatical apologetics are beginning to fear EU will not be fooled again, though pretending a fiasco would not be so bad after all. Then the blame game can begin. Never take responsibility, always blame others, that is the first axiom of the mafia/communist leadership in Ukraine.

The suggestion heard from some of Yanukovychs spin-doctors, that if there is just a pause in the selective justice, allowing Tymoshenko to be treated in Germany for a limited time and under prisonlike conditions, then the selective justice can continue when she returns and new stalinist show trials can take place, is really shameful. From a human point of view it would be good for Tymoshenko to get treatment of course, but it would be no solution to the problem of so called selective justice; and to put an end to selective justice is what Ukraine has actually committed itself to. How long will Yanukovych keep his country a hostage, because of his fear of a political opponent?